Whats The Market on Peppers?
by ninerfanNVA on Feb 1, 2010 6:01 PM PST
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PrintI'm always up for improving the 49ers in whatever capacity that the team can; whether that be by free agency, trades or the NFL draft. Of course all of this should be done with wisdom and fortitude; because as we know some things just don't work out. But we also don't want a early/mid 90's issue all over again where the team was constantly over the cap and could not afford to bring in players for depth.
Last year when Julius Peppers was asking for a trade; there seemed to have been mixed emotions from the 49er faithful about whether or not he would actually help the team. You had those who said that you can't spend that much money on a guy who has never played in a 3-4 system (as LB) and you had those who said that he would be an instant improvement over Manny Lawson and Haralson.
With that said and with it it being a year later in which we are now able to see a slightly clear and better picture of who Lawson and Haralson will be as NFL players; do you think the 49ers should go after Peppers during free agency? I am one to believe that a line up Willis, Peppers(some times finger in the ground); Spikes and Ahmad Brooks with a rotation of lawson and haralson would be pretty nasty.
And yes I think we all are aware of what it would cost to sign Julius Peppers; somewhere around 15 million per year but would it not be worth it? You can not always go by stats as the only barometer of what a player can do because some intangibles can't be recorded. But sometimes stats are all that we have to compare apples to apples and oranges to oranges and some cases apples to oranges but thats neither here nor there. Here are the stats and for some reason it has slid over but the last column of numbers are where the sacks should be.
|
Julius Peppers -2009 STATS |
FANTASY 2009 | |||||
| TACK | SOLO | FF | INT | SACK | OWN(WK+/-) | AVG DRAFT |
| 42 | 36 | 5 | 2 | 10.5 | ||
| Manny Lawson-2009 STATS | FANTASY 2009 | |||||
| TACK | SOLO | FF | INT | SACK | OWN(WK+/-) | AVG DRAFT |
| 68 | 51 | 3 | 0 | 6.5 | ||
| Parys Haralson-2009 STATS | FANTASY 2009 | |||||
| TACK | SOLO | FF | INT | SACK | OWN(WK+/-) | AVG DRAFT |
| 45 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 5.0 | ||
It would seem at first glance and maybe every other glance depending on how much you hate the thought of the 49ers spending that much money on one player that Lawson is the better option for the 49ers. Does the 4 extra sacks that peppers have make him that much more valuable? Or does the 26 more tackles that lawson have make him better? Peppers is 30 and Lawson is 26 but will lawson ever reach double sack potential? I exclude haralson in the equation because i'm not totally sold that he will ever be an every down kinda player but he did play less than Lawson and only finished with 1.5 less sacks.
What is the general feeling towards Peppers? And if not the 49ers then what team do you see him going to? I just came across the nfc west blog over on sando's page and they were talking about this; you might want to go over there to check it out. I have not checked it out yet but I will after this post. Give me some feedback...I'm for it but I'm sure im in the minority(as in reality too).
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.
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I don't think the FO would sign him
They like what they have in Lawson, Haralson, and Brooks. When the season starts they will all be 26. I wouldn’t mind him for the right price, but I think the FO will focus on some of the other needs of the team.
Go 49ers
I would have to agree
something tells me that the Front Office is satisfied with what they have but I truly don’t see how that can be. The defense IMO only got sacks against garbage teams that could not block. When it came down to it against the teams that mattered the 49ers defense could not get that sack.
"Of all the things in the world losing isn't so bad; it just starts to feel like it does when you do it for so long"
It all just depends on who else would be expendable. Although there may be an uncapped year, eventually there would be again. If it was a short-term deal, I may be on board for it. But the price would have to be right.
The Tim Tebow Story "A Bust In The Making" ...Part 2 Coming After The Draft...Stay Tuned.
Drew
do you really think that the NFL will be dumb enough to go into a uncapped year? Thats just a question and not questioning your statement. I hear a lot of people talking about that but going into a uncapped year will seriously hurt the NFL and will go against every thing that it stands for(balance of power). I have a hard time seeing Goodell let that happen. But you are right; if it is uncapped why not do a 3 year deal with front loaded incentives for the first 2 years and 3rd year as not so much(much like warners deal with the cardinals). I imagine that peppers will be looking for at least a 5 year deal right?
"Of all the things in the world losing isn't so bad; it just starts to feel like it does when you do it for so long"
If he was looking for a 5-year-deal, then I would have to say I would be opposed.
And I can’t be sure you caught the ProBowl yesterday, but during an interview of Roger Goodell, he sounded optimistic that a new CBA would be in place before the current one expired (which is in 2 years)… I believe anyway. smileyman knows more about it than I. In any case, " “dumb enough” is not the issue, whether or not and agreement can be reached on both sides is. It has not been ruled out that there would be an uncapped year.
The Tim Tebow Story "A Bust In The Making" ...Part 2 Coming After The Draft...Stay Tuned.
With no CBA there are no incentives
Tribute to #44...............The Elmira Express!!
No More personal Mocks
Trade 1a and 1b for Berry and Chiefs # 37 plus 2011 rd 3.
2a. - #37 Brandon Ghee CB Wake
#45- Mike Johnson G Ala.
#77- Jacoby Ford WR Clem.
#109 Kyle Calloway RT Iowa
# 141 Stephen Williams WR Toledo
#173 - Coker RB
# 205 - Whatever Drew K wants here!!
You keep saying this
and I don’t know what you’re referring to.
You can still load a contract with performance based incentives. You can pay a player a bunch of up front money. You can pay him a bunch of per year money.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will probably get picked in the first round.
I read and posted a link that all incentive bonuses i contracts without the new cba will stop any of this portion of the contract being paid.
I will look for it again.
Tribute to #44...............The Elmira Express!!
No More personal Mocks
Trade 1a and 1b for Berry and Chiefs # 37 plus 2011 rd 3.
2a. - #37 Brandon Ghee CB Wake
#45- Mike Johnson G Ala.
#77- Jacoby Ford WR Clem.
#109 Kyle Calloway RT Iowa
# 141 Stephen Williams WR Toledo
#173 - Coker RB
# 205 - Whatever Drew K wants here!!
Here ya go, read through the Q & A!
http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d815da1d2&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true
Tribute to #44...............The Elmira Express!!
No More personal Mocks
Trade 1a and 1b for Berry and Chiefs # 37 plus 2011 rd 3.
2a. - #37 Brandon Ghee CB Wake
#45- Mike Johnson G Ala.
#77- Jacoby Ford WR Clem.
#109 Kyle Calloway RT Iowa
# 141 Stephen Williams WR Toledo
#173 - Coker RB
# 205 - Whatever Drew K wants here!!
There are tons of special rules for an uncapped year that makes it not as crazy as you’d think.
One of which is that you can’t front load or restructure deals to add a big money onto 2010.
by microwave donut on Feb 1, 2010 8:55 PM PST up reply actions
Here's that link to Sando's NF west blog
http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/13825/mailbag-peppers-on-nfc-west-fans-minds
"Of all the things in the world losing isn't so bad; it just starts to feel like it does when you do it for so long"
Please NO
Did he make $18.5 million last year. we do NOT need to pay any player $20 million a year. He won’t make us that much better. I’d rather resign franklin.
i don't think
it would be 20 million a year. He only made 18 mil last year because he was franchised tag but nonetheless it would still be expensive. Seems to be so far that the only reason people are against it so far are for the money reasoning. So if there is a uncapped year…would yall do it?
"Of all the things in the world losing isn't so bad; it just starts to feel like it does when you do it for so long"
not my money.
No way Peppers takes a 1 year deal though.
by microwave donut on Feb 1, 2010 8:57 PM PST up reply actions
Money
I’d rather use that kind of coin to re-up Davis and Willis, among others.
by David Fucillo on Feb 1, 2010 7:31 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
This
Forget about Peppers, he will want too much and someone will go overboard for him.
Tribute to #44...............The Elmira Express!!
No More personal Mocks
Trade 1a and 1b for Berry and Chiefs # 37 plus 2011 rd 3.
2a. - #37 Brandon Ghee CB Wake
#45- Mike Johnson G Ala.
#77- Jacoby Ford WR Clem.
#109 Kyle Calloway RT Iowa
# 141 Stephen Williams WR Toledo
#173 - Coker RB
# 205 - Whatever Drew K wants here!!
i completely agree
I do believe he is an upgrade and I do believe he will want too much. I’m not so sure if agree that a team will over pay him though. Teams have gotten smarter with managing their money. But again if there is no agreement then it won’t matter..for a 1 year at least
"Of all the things in the world losing isn't so bad; it just starts to feel like it does when you do it for so long"
Raiders, Redskins, Carrol has a team now, and you have the Bills thirsty for a winner.
If you can sale the tickets and have the money you can spend it. jaguars don’t have a lot of heavy contracts. Rams have money and so do the Lions. A 10-14 sack a year guy and a ton of pressures and FF’s? To some it is worth the money, and with his athletic ability he can be good for 3-4 years of a 5 year deal and be able to be cut in the get (site decorum) year of the contract.
Tribute to #44...............The Elmira Express!!
No More personal Mocks
Trade 1a and 1b for Berry and Chiefs # 37 plus 2011 rd 3.
2a. - #37 Brandon Ghee CB Wake
#45- Mike Johnson G Ala.
#77- Jacoby Ford WR Clem.
#109 Kyle Calloway RT Iowa
# 141 Stephen Williams WR Toledo
#173 - Coker RB
# 205 - Whatever Drew K wants here!!
that is a must
and if thats the money that the 49ers will need to re-up those 2 then forget peppers.
"Of all the things in the world losing isn't so bad; it just starts to feel like it does when you do it for so long"
+10000000
49ers Al Grito De Guerra!!! hahaha
by 49erSalvatrucha on Feb 1, 2010 9:25 PM PST up reply actions
reply fail meant for fooch’s comment
49ers Al Grito De Guerra!!! hahaha
by 49erSalvatrucha on Feb 1, 2010 9:26 PM PST up reply actions
+1
Yup I wouldn’t do it I think were fine with our pass rush. Let Brooks play more. Spend money on P.W.and a O-line!
Niner Ball!!!!
by Batman559 on Feb 1, 2010 11:54 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Don’t forget about VD either
49ers Al Grito De Guerra!!! hahaha
by 49erSalvatrucha on Feb 2, 2010 9:53 PM PST up reply actions
This I agree..
Pepper would be overpriced and I wouldn’t want the niners to over spent on a older player playing a new position. I say pass, sign Willis and VD to longer contracts.
Joe and Steve were under the same system for years... don't expect Smith to be super so soon.
His contract demands unfortunately lead to future salary cap hazards so he really only makes sense on a team that believes it’s one impact player on defense away from a SB. This season Peppers had some spans of mediocrity. I think he can only play at a high level in spurts, so ideally a team would want to keep him fresh til a playoff push.
The kicker for Peppers is the restrictions due to having no CBA. No top 8 team can sign a free agent like Peppers unless it losses a player of Peppers caliber in free agency. Therefore I think his only true mercenary options are limited to the Falcons and Patriots. The Falcons might try to make a run next season while Turner is still in his prime and Gonzalez is still in the NFL.
Do We Really Need Him Is The Question?
I previously supported adding Peppers during the off-season, but recent events have changed my opinion regarding this. We have Brooks, Lawson and Haralson, all of whom recorded more than 5 sacks, all of whom are still very young and affordable. Why go after Peppers if it is going to cost us 10-12 million per? I think those three plus a rookie will be able to shoulder the load from an outside LB pass rushing perspective.
Hey Nerd? What’s this i am hearing about no top 8 team being able to sign a top tier free agent unless they lose one? Can you please post a link or something? This could be especially good news for the 49ers
"Cannot play with them. Cannot win with them. Cannot coach with them. Can't do it. I want winners. I want people that want to win!!!"
by nocal81(Vincent) on Feb 1, 2010 11:20 PM PST reply actions
Mostly I’ve heard about it during certain segments on NFL Network. Basically the top 8 teams, designated by who made the Divisional Round of playoffs are severely hampered in free agency until a CBA is signed.
In general the rule limits these teams from signing a free agent unless they lose a similar free agent. In essence they cannot add new players, only replace lost players. It was a fail safe put in for an uncapped year preventing the teams on top from getting into an expensive arms race for the Lombardi trophy. As what qualifies as a “similar replacement” to a lost free agent I do not know the fine print. I do know a team cannot lose a scrub and claim to replace him with a star player like Peppers. However, if a team loses a star offensive linemen I’m not sure if that allows the team to go out and sign any star player or are they limited to signing another offensive lineman.
I’ve heard it enough to know it’s true but don’t recall reading a detailed breakdown.
Final Eight
There are two aspects to the Final Eight. There’s the Fianl Four and then the Final Eight
The Final Four teams (Colts, Saints, Jets, Vikings), can only sign players who are waived or cut from their old teams. Basically they can only go after the dregs of the free agent class. The only exception is if they have a player hit FA—they can then negotiate with that player to retain his services.
Teams 5-8 can negotiate with one player and sign them but their salary has to be at least $4.92 million. They can negotiate with any rookie but can’t pay them more than $3.2 million and they can’t increase that by more than 30% a year (IOW you can pay your rookie $2 million the first year, $5 million the second, and $8 million the third).
If a team loses a player to free agency they can negotiate to acquire a new one but they can’t pay the new one more than their old one is making with his new team.
Example: The Jets’ Leon Washington is a free agent this year. The Jets can try to negotiate a higher salary to keep him around, but let’s say they can’t come to an agreement and he leaves. The 49ers pick him up for a salary of $2 million a year. The Jets can now try to negotiate for a new FA to replace Washington but they can’t pay him more than $2 million a year.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will probably get picked in the first round.
NinerfanNVA, Insightful post
and w/o taking a stance, I think it’s important, when comparing the statistics of Peppers v. Lawson and Haralson, to very much contemplate the intangibles and how much attention each respective player demanded from opposing teams. IE- how frequently did Peppers demand a double team and still put up his number v. Lawson and Haralson (and Brooks) respectively, it may be useful to recognize that opposing offenses may not have the luxury of doubling Peppers if he were opposite Justin Smith, or next to Franklin.
My personal opinion is that we should go for him if the price is right. I’m not going to pretend like i know what the right price is, but someone else eluded to needing to resign other guys like Willis and Davis. It should be a priority to resign those guys, as well as some others> and if then the financing is doable, we should sign him.
Chris Cohan- YOU'RE FIRED!
$18m -
That would be something like 12% of last year’s cap. You have to assume that Willis and Davis will get similar deals (no way they bring in a free agent who earns more than Willis) so you’re talking about 36% of our cap in just three players.
I agree he would improve us. I don’t know if it’s worth it, though.
I hope Davis doesn't get a similar deal. $18 million a year for a TE, you are CRAZY
I don’t even think Willis get’s that kind of deal.
He won't sign for $18 million
Panthers really, really wanted to keep him so they signed him to a one year deal. I suspect he’ll be willing to go somewhere else for franchise tag money which is going to be almost $10 million. He might be worth that much—after all that’s what we’re paying Justin Smith.
The two of them with Franklin in the middle? Offensive Coordinators would have nightmares.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will probably get picked in the first round.
Franchise Tag money was $18 million last year. With his incentives (probowl, playoffs etc.) he will get $20 million.
No way he signs for $10 million.
Unless I’m misreading your post, he signed a one year tender, but it was the franchise tag and it was $18 million. This year would be $20 million if Franchised again, not $10 million.
I'm doing a post on the franchise tag that's scheduled for tomorrow.
which will have lots of information in it, but the franchise tag amount for DE is slightly over $10 million a year. Peppers is the highest paid end in the league right now at $17 million, making him the highest paid DE in the league.
The franchise tag amount changes each year based on the top salaries of the players. For the 2010 season the franchise tag amount will be about $12 million.
The reason it was so high last year was because of Haynesworth’s ridiculous contract and all the guaranteed money he got.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will probably get picked in the first round.
That's if another team franchises him this year which can't happen.
Since he was franchised before, the Panthers have to give him an increase from what he was paid last year. I think it’s like 12.5% or something over the original amount.
The Franchise for Peppers this year, is $20 million.
The Panthers probably will not slap him with the franchise tag of more than $20 million
http://blog.pressdemocrat.com/49ers/2010/02/49ers-dollars-better-spent-on-retaining-own-players.html
Found a better link...and it's 10% increase. It's just ehow.com but I know it's right, I've read on ESPN before.
Consecutive Years As Franchise Player
A player can only be named a franchise player two years in a row. The second year must include at least a 10 percent increase over his previous salary or the average of the top five players at his position, whichever is higher. A player cannot be given a franchise player tag three years in a row.
http://www.ehow.com/facts_5156777_nfl-franchise-tag-rules.html
Another team can't franchise him
you can only franchise your own players, not someone else.
So if the Panthers pass on franchising him (to keep him they’d have to pay him 120% of his current salary), he hits the open market and will get paid whatever his agent can work out for him.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will probably get picked in the first round.
yeah that's exactly what I said.
You were quoting Pepper’s Franchise numbers as if he wasn’t already franchised before. The numbers you were quoting would be another teams number IF they were allowed to franchise which they can’t.
You were quoting the wrong number for Peppers at $12 million is all I was saying. If this were the first time he was franchised, then the avg would have been $12 million, but since he already had been franchised he would get closer to $20 million .
OK
I get what you’re saying. I thought you were talking about another team franchising him which of course they couldn’t.
You’re right of course. If the Panthers franchise him again they have to pay him 120% of his current salary.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will probably get picked in the first round.
I believe a player gets a raise too for each time he gets franchised. Prevents the highest paid player at the position from taking a pay cut from the franchise tag.
so its safe to say
that the panthers will be letting him go. They are not going to pay over 20 mil for one person.
"Of all the things in the world losing isn't so bad; it just starts to feel like it does when you do it for so long"
Yeah
If you use a franchise tag it’s the average of the top 5 salaries at your position or 120% of your previous year’s salary, whichever is greater.
If it’s a transition tag it’s the average of the top 10 salaries at your position or 110%.
So that would be either $20.4 million (franchise tag amount), or $18.7 million (transition tag).
Doubt the Panthers pay that much again for him.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will probably get picked in the first round.
I don't think Carolina is dumb enough to franchise him again.
If I were him and they did I would take the 20 plus mil guaranteed and not negotiate a new deal.
Tribute to #44...............The Elmira Express!!
No More personal Mocks
Trade 1a and 1b for Berry and Chiefs # 37 plus 2011 rd 3.
2a. - #37 Brandon Ghee CB Wake
#45- Mike Johnson G Ala.
#77- Jacoby Ford WR Clem.
#109 Kyle Calloway RT Iowa
# 141 Stephen Williams WR Toledo
#173 - Coker RB
# 205 - Whatever Drew K wants here!!
An Alternative to Peppers?
I appreciate everyone’e desire, including me, to get more defensive push up front. Peppers might agree to a 3-4 year $15M per contract but that doesn’t make sense for the Niners in light of upcoming extensions for existing players. As an alternative, with a LOT LESS vocal and other disruption, how about making a run at Richard Seymour? He’s still only 30 (I think), already knows the Bay Area, and is much more of a Mike Singletary kind of guy. What do you think that it would take (contract-wise) to pry him away from the Raiders? Would it make sense as a short-term (say 3-year) improvement?
by 49erFanSince1950 on Feb 2, 2010 3:04 PM PST reply actions
I'd like him but no way Raiders give him up since he cost them a 1st rounder.
No way they give up a 1st rounder for 1 year of service. I’d like him opposite Smith though. That’s a mean from DL right there.
Just thinking outloud, I wonder if he refuses to sign with the Raiders, they Franchise him, so that we can trade for him and they can recoup their 1st rounder. Just not sure I would give up a 1st rounder for him, and I doubt the Raiders give him up for anything less than they gave up for him just a year ago.
He may get tagged himself, but that would cost a lot of dough.
Tribute to #44...............The Elmira Express!!
No More personal Mocks
Trade 1a and 1b for Berry and Chiefs # 37 plus 2011 rd 3.
2a. - #37 Brandon Ghee CB Wake
#45- Mike Johnson G Ala.
#77- Jacoby Ford WR Clem.
#109 Kyle Calloway RT Iowa
# 141 Stephen Williams WR Toledo
#173 - Coker RB
# 205 - Whatever Drew K wants here!!
How about Aaron Kampman
He’s at the age (30) when DE’s tend to regress, but if there isn’ much of a market for him, he would be a nice addition as DE, OLB. He’s the next tier down from Peppers, and probably wouldn’t handcuff us financially if we took a shot on him. However, I dont know how much money he’ll command on the open market. Any Ideas?
Still and all, why bother? Here's my answer. Many people need desperately to receive this message: I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.
-Kurt Vonnegut
by Classy_Argonaut on Feb 6, 2010 12:15 PM PST up reply actions
He doesn't want to play DE/OLB anymore
That’s why he’s leaving GB.
I’m pretty sure he wants to play in a 4-3 scheme (where he has had most of his success).
Perhaps he could be a good fit in CAR?
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on Feb 6, 2010 2:58 PM PST up reply actions
Honestly, Kampman and Peppers are too expensive. Haralson and Lawson do a fine job at OLB. I’d rather sign Richard Seymour to be our 3-4 DE.
Andy Lee for MVP! Hey, that rhymes...
And you don't think that Seymour would be expensive?
Not sure that Peppers or Seymour would be worth it. And we are good on OLB as you noted and Kamp is too small to play as an effective DE in 3-4. Just my opinion. Stand pat on DE and LB (maybe porter at LB but a very weak maybe) and go for those in the draft as later round pickups.
by ChesapeakeBay9er on Feb 7, 2010 10:54 AM PST up reply actions
reply fail. Oh well, at least the post is directly above.
by microwave donut on Feb 2, 2010 4:49 PM PST up reply actions
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