Todd McShay's common draft mistakes
by David Fucillo on Feb 14, 2010 11:09 AM PST
in NFL Draft
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PrintDrew will have another 100 in 100 post later today, but in the meantime I thought we'd open a different kind of draft discussion. Todd McShay put together an article for ESPN the Magazine discussing the four most common draft mistakes teams make.
1. They will ignore the big four. At the top of the draft, four crucial positions -- QB, offensive tackle, cornerback and pass-rusher -- should trump all others.
2. They will be seduced by looks. Scouts, GMs, even esteemed members of the media get too wrapped up in 40 times and 225-pound bench press reps.
3. They will pay no mind to minds. As one scout told me recently, "You can't win with dumb players in the NFL anymore." This Jeff George-inspired rule isn't so much about human intelligence as football intelligence, not book-smart guys but playbook-smart guys.
4. They will choose need over value. Everyone who has a say in a team's draft starts with the idea that the biggest holes need to be filled first. It's a fair philosophy in a football utopia. But in the real world, hole-filling can't be the only -- or primary -- factor in determining which guy to take.
I was going to address each individually, but one can look at these together in the bigger picture. There has been a lot of talk about whether the team should be grabbing a right tackle with either of their first round picks. It's a drastic need for the team, but there's all this talk about paying left tackle money to a right tackle early on. The options are taking a left tackle early and moving him back over to right tackle, taking a right tackle fairly high, or waiting until later to grab a right tackle. Plenty of options, but what is the best way to maximize your return?
The one I've always found curious is the idea of drafting for value, as opposed to specific need. When the 49ers took Michael Crabtree this past year, it really was a perfect combination of value and need. He was the consensus best guy on the board at that point, and the 49ers didn't exactly have an overwhelming group of wide receivers. This year, it seems like the offensive line is so desperately in need over overhaul that a team should be willing to go with filling this need, even if a slightly better player at a position of depth is available.
If you were GM, in looking at the 49ers needs this year, do you just go BPA all the way in the first round? Does having two first round picks allow you to go BPA with one and need with another?
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I think we’re in an excellent situation in which we have 2 first round picks and a few consensus glaring needs. I think with the team built as it is now, we need to be addressing specific needs over a plain BPA approach. However, I think within those needs we should operate on a BPA basis, because between 13 and 17 we should feel pretty confident that 2 of our 3 biggest holes (S, KR/PR/Homerun Threat, OT) will be addressed in one way or another.
As a side note, Fooch I think it would be really cool if each SBNation NFL blog got together and did a mock draft. I think this would be a great way to get an honest draft done by the most hardcore and knowledgeable fans. For example, just in the way people assume we should draft Joe Haden because our pass defense as a whole is subpar, I think we may have many of the same misconceptions about other teams. I realize I’m kind of playing backseat driver here, but it’s just a thought!
by InTimmyWeTrust on Feb 14, 2010 11:24 AM PST reply actions
each blog has gotten together
its on www.mockingthedraft.com
they just did one last week i think. drew k was our rep
Cool. Thanks.
Shoulda known SBNation would have something like this up.
by InTimmyWeTrust on Feb 14, 2010 4:05 PM PST up reply actions
BPA or Need?
A guesstimate from someone who is not a serious researcher regarding football talent.
If you are a long view, long haul, look to the future kind of guy, you go BPA.
If you are a short view, need it now, success next year kind of guy, you go NEED.
If all depends on how committed you are to either extreme. Most people are probably somewhere in the middle.
we have a luxury with the 2 first rounders
in that i believe we can draft for both need and luxury in the first
i also think it depends on who’s available. if, for example, anthony davis and okung are gone by our #13 and we feel that the remaining core of OL are pretty much equal (bulaga, williams, campbell, etc), and if a luxury pick like CJ Spiller is still on the board, then we go for spiller first.
but if someone like davis is still available and we value him a lot more than the other OL, we draft him first and then think quick as to who we can take next 4 picks later
DREAM DRAFT:
1a. Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers
1b. CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson
2. Best CB available
3. Freddie Barnes, WR, Bowling Green
by MichaelClutchtree on Feb 14, 2010 11:57 AM PST reply actions
I would say BPA with the first pick.
I don’t think we have as many needs as other though. I would say 3-4 DESPERATE needs.
Tribute to #42 Ronnie Lott
what are those for you?
1. QUARTERBACK :p
2. OL
3. secondary (but we still have to see what happens with dashon, if he gets moved to SS or not)
4. PUNTER!
DREAM DRAFT:
1a. Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers
1b. CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson
2. Best CB available
3. Freddie Barnes, WR, Bowling Green
by MichaelClutchtree on Feb 14, 2010 12:17 PM PST up reply actions
i had 2 say something
i saw you’re line and had 2 say something you got QB first so we’re starting from scratch again are you serious even if alex didn’t work out which i think he will yourr saying draft again even with nate hen you got punter wtf are youserious with andy lee the OL and secondary is THE only thing you got right or were u putting that order down 4 somebody else please say yes.
I'm fine if we draft a RT in the first round
I dont care how much he is getting paid as long as he is good and he deserves it.
Go 49ers
I think the BPA v. Need argument gets a bit overblown
To me the simple answer is that a pick should never be entirely one or the other, teams should keep both their player evaluations and team needs in mind when making a pick. What you want to avoid is reaching for a player to fill a need, or becoming infatuated with a player who may not fit with what the team is trying to do.
The tricky part about BPA that I don’t think gets mentioned enough is the variability inherent in player evaluation. A team will rarely have a situation where there is one “Best” player available, there always be conflicting opinions.
I generally like how the 49ers have operated in this regard, identifying players who they think are good values at a certain pick range and sticking to it. If you have 3-4 players who you think are worthy of the 13th pick then you should start to look at how they fit in with the team.
I think they need to go with the BPA but also the BNPA
What I mean is OT, S, KR/PR are the biggest needs. If at # 13 Berry is available then he is your pick and he fills the Best Need Player Available at the same time.
If Berry is gone, and I am sure he will be hours before the # 13 pick, and Spiller, Davis, Campbell and Bulaga are available you know you will get one of the good OTs at # 17 so go with Spiller who will be a KR/PR, COP back and WR. He has that kind of talent. Then you pick the best of the OTs left at # 17.
rlott#42 and others want to draft up to #5 or # 7 for Berry, and I can see why. I think the two first and one second rounder are too valuable to give up.. but If he would to fall to let’s say # 10, and you can get him without touching the other 1st or 2nd rounders. Go for it.. I would really like for rlott, Drew and myself to all get what we want in this draft… But then again, I am greedy.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
If Berry falls to #5 or later
we won’t have to give up two first rounders—just one first rounder and a 2nd rounder (maybe a 3rd too). This still leaves us with a 1st rounder that we can use to move back and grab a later 1st round pick plus an addition 2nd round pick.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will probably get picked in the first round.
Sweet!!!!!!!!!!!!!
49ers Al Grito De Guerra!!! hahaha
by 49erSalvatrucha on Feb 14, 2010 7:27 PM PST up reply actions
The 13th pick is more important than that 16th or 17th pick
I know that they are only a few picks apart but salary wise and risk wise they are miles apart. i believe that McShay is correct in his assessment when he says that teams tend to pick need or value. Teams seem to reach on early picks for needs. Look at what we did with that first overall pick in 05’. No knock to Alex Smith i believe that in the right situation and with talent around him he can succeed; he showed signs of it last season. But looking back several years later does anyone believe that we made the right choice with him. Had we had that 24th pick like the packers had and selected Alex Smith then than it probably wouldn’t have set back the organization like it did but then again it was a pretty rough draft and the best player from the draft is probably Demarcus Ware. The point i’m trying to make is that with high picks you can’t always go for what the needs of the team are because in truth that doesnt always mean that they are worth picking them so high.
Now we have the luxury of having 2 picks in the first round. It’s obvious that we need Return Help/O-line Help/A home run threat/Pass Rush help. See i would say Safety but i don’t think that it is that much of a glaring need and we could always select a guy like Byron Rolle if he drops into the second round. i would say that with the 13th pick the selection should be Spiller; it would give the Niners youth, return help and a home run threat which would give us speed which we also need since we faster players are our two tight ends and that is not a good thing. And with that second pick i guy like Treat Williams or Anthony Davis and that would give us line depth. It would also help us while hurting our division rivals since i’ve seen in other M.D’s that Seattle would take Spiller if he gets past us and i would rather have him help us than defending him twice a year.
13th vs 17th
2009
13th pick—Brian Orakpo (5 year $15.4 million. $3 million a year)
Starting LB for the Redskins. Doing a pretty good job for them.
17th pick—Josh Freeman (5 year $26 million. $5 million a year) QBs inflate the numbers.
Starting QB for the Bucs
2008
13th pick Jonathan Stewart (5 year $14 million. $2.8 million a year)
Starter and 1000 yard rusher in 2009
17th pick Gosder Cherilus (5 year $12.5 million. $2.5 million a year)
Starter at RT for the Lions
2007
13th pick Adam Carriker (5 year $12.8 million. $2.5 million a year)
Pretty close to bust status. Started all of his rookie year, but only 8 games this year.
17th pick Jarvis Moss (5 year $14.95 million. $3 million a year)
Started 1 game in 3 years. Bust
2006
13th pick Kamerion Wimbley (6 year, $23.7 million. $3.95 million a year)
4 year starter and pretty decent LB for the Browns.
17th pick Chad Greenway (5 year, $10.75 million. $2 million a year)
3 year starter and pretty good OLB for the Vikings.
2005
13th pick Jammal Brown (7 year $14.11 million. $2 million a year)
4 year starter for the Saints. On IR this year and may be released.
17th pick David Pollack (5 year, $13 million. $2.6 million a year)
Started a couple games his rookie year. Broke a vertebrae his 2nd season and retired from football.
13th pick—4 starters and a bust. Average per year salary $2.85 million
17th pick—3 starters and a bust, plus one retired due to injuries. Average per year salary $3.02 million.
Identical salaries nearly, plus the number of busts to starters is the same.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will probably get picked in the first round.
you are right
the salaries and the risk/reward is closer than i stated over the last several years. but would you rather have a bust with the 16th or 17th pick or would you with that 13th pick. i know that in the end it probably doesnt make that much of a difference a bust is a bust but to me the closer you get to the top 10 picks in the draft the closer you are to hurting your organization
That close together I don't think it matters
if we’re talking 15th and 30th, or 5th and 20th it makes a big difference but when they’re only 4 spots apart it’s not as big a deal.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will probably get picked in the first round.
hey
you never know, this might be a make or break draft for Scot & coach Sing so i do think when it comes to that 13th pick and 16th or 17th pick it will make a huge difference because of the fact that Seattle is the pick after us and the Giants are after us, a division rival and a conference rival
Myron Rolle
I was gonna say, if he’s available as early as the 2nd round, we should give him strong consideration. He’s definitely got the mind (Rhodes scholar who went to Oxford). That with exceptional skills & physicality could make for a promising prospect.
As far as being seduced by looks, if there was a definition in the dictionary for it, there should be a pic of Al Davis to accompany it! :)
by Mangoman on Feb 14, 2010 4:46 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Sorry about miss writing Myron’s name. my belief with his intelligence as a Rhodes’ scholar and his skills as a player that he would be a steal in the second round. do i honestly think that he will be there probably not but i can hope and the lack of teams that actually need a safety might actually help us if we waiting to pick up a safety. that and with the fact that Michael Lewis has a few good years in him i dont believe that it is such a pressing need
Rolle
will be there in the 2nd and likely in the 3rd. Most scouts have him as a 4th or 5th round pick.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will probably get picked in the first round.
But this before the combine & Personal Workouts
At the senior bowl he looked as good as any other safety and that was he real action in over a year. he gets the combine and workouts and trust me he will evaluate his status, by the draft all the draft experts will say that he will go in mid 1st round to early 2nd round
Nedney
What is his status for next season? Gotta love him and obviously kickers can have very long careers, but is there any chance we’re looking for a kicker in the later rounds?
by InTimmyWeTrust on Feb 14, 2010 12:46 PM PST reply actions
By this I’m referring to his injury, not his overall skill and contract situation
by InTimmyWeTrust on Feb 14, 2010 12:47 PM PST up reply actions
Let's wait until next year !
The most accurate collegiate kicker in the last decade will be coming out in the 2011 draft … Kai Forbath from UCLA. Check this out:
Won Lou Groza Award as nations best kicker in 2009;
2009 record: 28 made out of 31 tries; but …
Over 50 yards = 3 for 6
Under 50 yards = 25 for 25; and …
Ongoing is 37 in a row, and counting, from under 50 yards.
Career record thru 2009: 72 of 83 or .867%
by 49erFanSince1950 on Feb 14, 2010 7:42 PM PST up reply actions
He still kicks with the best of 'em
Keep him until he starts shanking them
The Tim Tebow Story "A Bust In The Making" ...Part 2 Coming After The Draft...Stay Tuned.
First rounders should be ready to or close to being ready to start
otherwise you should not waste a high-pick on a project, aka Kentwan Balmer. I see no need on spending high picks on players that will take time to learn their positions and can’t contribute from the get-go. Spiller might be a good pick but does one really use a first-round pick on a KR??? I’m not sure about that.
We need starters for the O-line and we need them bad. We can easily put Baas, Sims, and Snyder as backups and thus have good depth. I think we’re ok on pass-rushers unless a great one falls to us. I’m sick of projects that need time to develop and yet honestly never do.
So I think the question is: Can they start? If yes, grab’em. Otherwise you have to ask what Walsh did which was how can this player help our team that we don’t already have at the moment.
Spiller
Spiller would be the only guy if he was there as far as BPA.. Otherwise go by need.
Proud Sponsor of YoungWillis
"This year, it seems like the offensive line is so desperately in need over overhaul that a team should be willing to go with filling this need, even if a slightly better player at a position of depth is available."
I agree, but the interesting debate is what the niners should do if a MUCH better player is available, say, a wide receiver? Do they completely ignore need and draft the WR that has magically fell to them? Or do they go with the OT they expected to be available at that pick?
Awesome read and a great thought Rec
"For what we are about to see next, we must enter quietly into the realm of genius." Scott "Young Frankenstein" Pioli
If you go BPA you
end up the Lions drafting wide receivers several years in a row. If you go need you’re the Packers passing on Barry Sanders to draft Tony Mandarich
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will probably get picked in the first round.
Dear Fooch,
Tood McShay is an idiot.
Sincerely,
Ninjames
I chose water over wine... Jars of formaldehyde... think of all the things I missed... Why'd you make me a scientist?
tood.
I chose water over wine... Jars of formaldehyde... think of all the things I missed... Why'd you make me a scientist?
lol
49ers Al Grito De Guerra!!! hahaha
by 49erSalvatrucha on Feb 14, 2010 7:31 PM PST up reply actions
Right Tackle...not in the 1st.
Is Tony Pashos good enough to start next year for us? If you ask me, personally I think we should draft a Right Tackle but not until later. I think Pashos can be effective next year and the rookie can develop behind him, I think that’d be the best policy.
The Tim Tebow Story "A Bust In The Making" ...Part 2 Coming After The Draft...Stay Tuned.
Drew, who would be the TOP RTs in the draft and when are they projected?
One big reason I am more for going Bulaga in the 1st is because i don’t have faith in Staley at LT.
He had a lot of problems last year before he was injured.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
I’ll put together a list in the next mock draft thread (as a comment)
The Tim Tebow Story "A Bust In The Making" ...Part 2 Coming After The Draft...Stay Tuned.
Thank you once again Sir
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
Is Pashos even under contract?
I thought he came over last year because of his prior relationship with the O-line coach who has since moved on?
He was under a 1-year
but we could resign him for fairly cheap I would imagine. We got him for cheap and I think he’d be worth keeping for cheap
The Tim Tebow Story "A Bust In The Making" ...Part 2 Coming After The Draft...Stay Tuned.
pashos
He came because of the 49ers o-line coach, who is now in Washington. People seem to think Pashos follows him to DC.
by David Fucillo on Feb 14, 2010 9:45 PM PST up reply actions
Interesting
but he is a pro that will more than likely follow the money before he follows a coach. That’s what I would do anyway, especially considering he’s pretty much a journeyman. All I am suggesting is that he could be re-signed for pretty cheap. Even if it means outbidding Washington to retain his services.
The Tim Tebow Story "A Bust In The Making" ...Part 2 Coming After The Draft...Stay Tuned.
I don't know
Outbidding another team to get an aging tackle who is coming off a serious injury and was not all that productive for us before the injury seems like a poor decision to me.
I’d rather use a 1st and try and get the position taken care of.
And if it's a fail?
then we’ve overpaid and will likely be shelling out a ton of loot for a while for a RT when we could have had a sure thing in Pashos…or at least something in what we know what we have already. We could fix the Oline with Pashos and draft a potential RT in the mid rounds to develop. Pashos is 29 years old.
I think it was just speculation in that Pashos would be following the oline coach to Washington. I was just simply suggesting that it wouldn’t be exactly a lame move to sign him again cause he’d be relatively cheap and if nothing else we would have a really solid back up. It’s better than keeping Snyder anyway
The Tim Tebow Story "A Bust In The Making" ...Part 2 Coming After The Draft...Stay Tuned.
Pashos is hardly a sure thing. Jacksonville drafted three lineman because they were not happy with Pashos and they eventually cut him because they weren’t going to pay a backup starters money.
Even if resigned and starting the 49ers are likely replacing a below average RT with a lesser below average RT. Most of the beat writers think he won’t be back because Forester was the only one in the organization backing Pashos.
I'd take a OT in the first, but only if he could play both sides
I have no problem with drafting a guy in the first to play RT in 2010, but I want him to be able to move to the left side if needed for that player to be worth of a 1st rounder.
by microwave donut on Feb 15, 2010 9:27 AM PST up reply actions
Time to beef up the line!
The O-line is the foundation of any football team, Put Manning on a team with a horrible line and running for his life and what do you have, a great QB with no time to throw. Gore is a great back, but what do you have with no holes to run through? A great back running into a brick wall. Michael Oher was the best OT taken last year and he went 23 overall and was the 4th OT taken. It’s all just guess work when drafting thes guys. Need or BPA, they better take a damn OT in the first round. Who cares how much a RT makes when you are winning games. What if Smith had Manning time to throw the ball? What if Gore had consistant holes to run through? The best situation is Spiller RB or Thomas SS with the first pick, and the best OT with the next 1st rounder.
What if a WR dropped to them? Why get a Dez Bryant if Smith can’t get him the ball? Crabtree was a different situation last year cause the niners didn’t have a great WR. Now they do, so I don’t think that would be a wise move.
Just imagine what next year would be like with Smith and Gore having a great O-line giving them the opportunity to do what they do best, the D will only be better this next year. That means that for the first time in many years that the 49ers will have a complete and playoff bound team!
I am pro beef also.
I am hoping the Niners take an OT in the first and an OG somewhere in the top 4 rounds. 2nd round G is ok with me. I also want one more offensive weapon. Having two first round picks does create some options as far as BPA goes. With some luck, the Niners can really upgrade in this draft. I think too much is made of value and draft slot also. Get the studs you want that will be an improvement to what you have…let the analysts calculate the value of your picks.
Spiller, OT, OG, DB, DL—-
OT, Best, OG, DB, DL
Maximizing value
I believe that we should always draft BPA. However that depends entirely how the draft is going come april. If we have the opportunity to draft an “ELITE” player when we pick , we should always take that player. But our hope is that there is more than one ELITE player available , and that we can choose that elite player that also fills a specific need. Truly ELITE prospects dont enter the draft very often and we should always target them! Most choices however, usually involve picking up lesser quality players, still excellent choices but not ELITE. If when we pick at 13 or 17 and our team has ranked several players on the board that are “equally” talented but play different positions then I believe we should choose for team need instead of just BPA. as long as its not a reach pick! For example if the niners war room has an ILB DT and an OT ranked 13 14 15 respectivley it would not be violating the BPA rule to take the OT at 13 and fill a need ,because they are so closely ranked in talent! What we should not do is draft the 25th ranked player on our board at 13 just because of need ! Thats is a recipe for insuring a mediocre team. !!
BPA
Not all teams draft BPA . Case in point ,Kentwan Balmer! There is no way he was the best player on anyones board in the firstround
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