Niners Nation 2010 49ers Mock Draft Database Updated

by David Fucillo on Feb 16, 2010 7:58 AM PST in NFL Draft

I spent yesterday updating our 2010 49ers Mock Draft Database and thought I'd look at a few of the changes and similarities since I last updated in on January 30. Our database includes 30 mock drafts. There are databases out there with hundreds of mocks, but I think 30 gives us a good number with which to work. I don't know if it is all that statistically significant, but it's something to work with and play around with, as far as analysis goes.

Over the last two weeks we really haven't seen any major changes to the database. On 1/30, 24 mocks had the 49ers drafting an offensive tackle, while yesterday's update saw 26 mocks having the 49ers draft an offensive tackle. Both editions saw 11 mocks that included a safety.

The biggest change saw Trent Williams leap from sixth among potential players (selected 5 times) to first among potential players (selected 11 times). Bryan Bulaga was selected two more times, both in the first round. Your additional offensive tackles included Anthony Davis and Bruce Campbell.

Since the season ended, much of the draft discussion has centered around the need for help on the offensive line. There has been some debate about waiting into the second round if you're just looking for a right tackle. Even with only 30 mocks, the consensus is clearly apparent. Of those 26 mocks with the 49ers drafting an OT, none involve OTs with both picks. So 87% of our mocks have the 49ers taking an OT. McShay's last mock didn't have the 49ers taking an OT with either pick, but he did project guard Mike Iupati. That would put us at 90% of mocks selecting an offensive lineman. If we expanded our mocks to 50 or 100 or 500, I wouldn't be surprised to see that percentage stay north of 80%, if not right close to the 87%.

Aside from McShay, the 3 mocks that had no new offensive lineman for the 49ers had the following pairings:

Saturdays 2 Sundays: CB Joe Haden & S Taylor Mays
New Era Scouting: S Earl Thomas & OLB Sergio Kindle
Footballs Future: CB Joe Haden & RB C.J. Spiller

For those wondering, New Era had the 49ers taking guard Jon Asamoah in the second round and OT Selvish Capers in the third round. FF had the 49ers selecting Jason Pierre-Paul in the second round. S2S did not have a second round in their mock.

At this point, i wouldn't expect any significant change in mocks until after the combine gets over with, followed by the beginning of free agency. The combine will affect player rankings and a bit of positional rankings (particular for teams going BPA). Free agency will affect positional rankings since teams will be filling potential holes. With the Combine starting Wednesday February 24, I'm thinking I'll update the mocks that prior Monday night so we have a baseline heading into the Combine.

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Comments

Selvish Capers is such a fantastic name

But really, Hayden AND Mays?

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Feb 16, 2010 9:08 AM PST reply actions

Agree on both counts

it is a great name…and…2 first round picks for the secondary is too much, unless any of them can handle punt returns. Could any of them take on that role?

by Glasgow_49er on Feb 16, 2010 9:27 AM PST up reply actions

first things first i

If i can say its cool 2 become apart of the niner nation ive always been a number 1 niner fan grew up in frisco and grew up in a niner family that’s what i’m proud of the most beause ive got friends from the bay who are cowboys fan and haven’t seen dallas let alone texas.Now i know mock drafts are just ways 2 keep us NFL fans trying 2 keep us getting are daily fix why we wait through the LONGEST off season in sports so saying all that i hope the niners draft safety with the first pick and personally i hope we get earl thomas from texas he’s a ball hawk and i feel taylor mays would be like getting a younger mark roman both can’t buy a interception .With the second first round pick grab a tackle if mclain from alabama drops like crabtree dropped swoop him up quikly other than that secound round pick should b4 a end rusher unless we handle that in free agency.

by jayjonna415 on Feb 16, 2010 11:24 AM PST reply actions

Drafttek's has changed

It’s:

13th- C.J. Spiller
17th- Taylor Mays

The Tim Tebow Story "A Bust In The Making" ...Part 2 Coming After The Draft...Stay Tuned.

by Drew Kerr on Feb 16, 2010 11:54 AM PST reply actions

They also have the Seahawks taking Haden at 6.

With all those OL still on the board at 17, I’d much rather have Davis or Trent Williams than Mays.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Feb 16, 2010 12:05 PM PST up reply actions

Update

They update fairly frequently so I just missed it.

by David Fucillo on Feb 16, 2010 12:29 PM PST up reply actions

OMG FOOCH WHY AREN'T YOU ONLINE 25 HOURS A DAY

GOSH.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Feb 16, 2010 2:27 PM PST up reply actions

I think Davis is going to bust. Possibly Williams too

The Tim Tebow Story "A Bust In The Making" ...Part 2 Coming After The Draft...Stay Tuned.

by Drew Kerr on Feb 16, 2010 1:34 PM PST up reply actions

Probably Mays too.

and frankly I’m just falling less and less in love with using our #1 pick on a running back when there are other huge needs.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Feb 16, 2010 2:28 PM PST up reply actions

I am falling less in love with spending

a 1st Round pick on a Right Tackle when there really aren’t any good candidates that naturally play that position in the 1st. Tried that Joe Staley’s first year (moving him from LT to RT) and it failed miserably.

But to each their own

The Tim Tebow Story "A Bust In The Making" ...Part 2 Coming After The Draft...Stay Tuned.

by Drew Kerr on Feb 16, 2010 2:53 PM PST up reply actions

Solution: Trade up for Berry!

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Feb 16, 2010 3:02 PM PST up reply actions

Trent Williams is your solution then

he’s a natural RT who dominated at the spot.

Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will probably get picked in the first round.

by smileyman on Feb 16, 2010 9:55 PM PST up reply actions

I like FF draft

I like Haden, and LOVE Spiller. But if we could get JPP in 2nd round I’d be STOKED!!! I think he goes in 1st round just based on his freakish ability.

I like New Era’s 2nd and 3rd rounds, but TWO Texas guys in 1st round?

by hudd07 on Feb 16, 2010 12:53 PM PST reply actions

Are we going to have another NN mock draft after the combine?

by HaloFanInDC on Feb 16, 2010 1:09 PM PST reply actions

mock draft

That’s the plan. The Combine ends March 2, and free agency begins March 5 (I believe). So either we do one in between the two, or we just wait until after the first week of free agency. I’ll talk to Drew about it.

by David Fucillo on Feb 16, 2010 1:27 PM PST up reply actions

Spiller an Mays agree with drew k.. don’t mind if berry fall to 4th wit the redskins that we trade up for eric berry

by dc49erfan on Feb 16, 2010 1:25 PM PST reply actions

National Football Post's mock

Also has us going Haden/Safety. I have a little more faith in McCloughan than to think he’ll go defense/defense, and truth be told I don’t think that Haden will make it to 13.

Don't worry about me Thurgood, I'll be fine. The robbery is what's important now.

by the guy on Feb 16, 2010 3:01 PM PST reply actions

Haden falling past 10 would be a gift for the defense… just dont see Spiller going past 14.

If Seattle picks up a QB with 1a, i think they will go OL with 1b. but if they pass at qb, I say they go OL/DE/DB with 1a and Spiller at 1b figuring they feel they have 1 quality year left with the Hass, and a shot in the arm at RB with Spiller.

Spiller at 13 is like Crabs at 10. it should be a no brainer, because can any of these top OT really provide the spark we need when it comes down to maintaining a drive or converting a 3rd down. I know Oher was a gem for Baltimore last year, but it was Ray Rice picking up 12, 16, 8, 20+ yrds that made them into a more effective Offense.

by LADubbz45 on Feb 16, 2010 5:43 PM PST reply actions

Don't want Haden. CB is not a 1st round need, and I doubt he'd be BPA over a lineman.

Tribute to #42 Ronnie Lott

by rlott#42 on Feb 16, 2010 6:13 PM PST up reply actions

^ this

The Tim Tebow Story "A Bust In The Making" ...Part 2 Coming After The Draft...Stay Tuned.

by Drew Kerr on Feb 16, 2010 6:51 PM PST up reply actions

Disagree

Generally I agree with you Drew, but not this time. I think Haden is by far the best corner in the draft and is heads and shoulders above any other corner prospect. If he somehow slips and is there when the Niners pick at 13, I think you need to go BPA and take him over whatever lineman is available, barring a drop of the top OT (whoever that may be on your board). While I would agree that the line is a greater need at the present, looking long term, getting a number 1 corner instead of a starting RT would be more beneficial. With the growth of passing and the teams perchance of giving up big plays, Haden would be a great pick up in terms of both long term need and value

by HaloFanInDC on Feb 16, 2010 8:43 PM PST up reply actions

Wouldn’t mind Haden rather have Berry but BPA

49ers Al Grito De Guerra!!! hahaha

by 49erSalvatrucha on Feb 16, 2010 9:26 PM PST up reply actions

CB is not a big need.. OT, KR/PR and S are bigger

Spiller solves many problems or positions in COP back, KR, PR, WR… he is more valuable to the 49ers. OT is the biggest need and for me, a really good LT may be just what we need as I don’t have as much confidence in Staley as others may. But also, a good LT who can also be a good RT would help like Oher did this year and was able to move over to LT when theirs was hurt.

Haden would be nice.. so would Clausen and McClain… in fact if Haden, Clausen, Spiller and McClain were all available at #13 I can see the 49ers going for McClain.

"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"

by Eastbayjim on Feb 16, 2010 9:39 PM PST up reply actions

Haden?

He was abised by a large and slower WR when he faced LSU. And I mean abused. he is not good enough for 13th overall. Plus we need the fastest physical corner. Robinson from FSU would be a better fit. We can’t cover small quick WR’s and Haden cab’t keep up with the slow ones, so how could he benefit us so greatly? He can’t. CB can wait. until 2rd and later rounds.

Tribute to #42 Ronnie Lott

by rlott#42 on Feb 16, 2010 9:49 PM PST up reply actions