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Around SBN: College Football Rankings - BlogPoll Top 25

Bill Polian vs. Mark Cuban: Which One Do You Think Likes Stats?

Hey everyone...just a quick-hitter here to get some discussion going...

This past weekend was the Sloan Sports Analytic Conference at MIT. You'd think with a name and location like that, pocket protectors would outnumber actual sports officials by at least 10 to 1. That was basically my experience when I attended the New England Symposium on Statistics in Sports at Harvard back in 2007. There were a lot of Florida Dannys (Dannies?), Aaron Schatzes, and Justin Wolfers' there, so pretty much everyone was already a believer in statistical applications for sport.

This wasn't the case at the SSAC, where the main headline coming out of the conference was (a) how much of a believer in stats Mark Cuban is, and (b) how much of a non-believer Bill Polian is. In addition to Cuban and Polian, other high-profile attendees included Avery Johnson (former Mavericks coach), Brent Barry (former NBA guard), Jonathan Kraft (current Patriots President), and several ESPN personalities (Brian Kenny, Bill Simmons, etc.). Such a diverse audience gave the "I don't believe in stats" crowd ample opportunity to air their opinions.

I didn't actually attend SSAC (live 2,000 miles away + didn't have research to present unlike the NESSIS in 2007), but there's plenty of reaction from various outlets. Here's a sample:

Aaron @ Football Outsiders

Kevin Pelton @ Basketball Prospectus

Neil Paine @ Basketball Reference

Evan Hochschild @ Crawfish Boxes

That's just a sampling, but it's a pretty representative sample (sorry, just can't get avoid that statgeekery pun). So, take a look at these links if you're interested, absorb the points that are made, and then let's start yet another discussion thread on stats vs. no stats.

Comments section after the jump...

Poll
Where do you stand on the stats vs. no stats debate?
Stat analysis is useful in sports
124 votes
Stat analysis is not useful in sports
17 votes

141 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 15 comments |

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Not sure the poll question is fair

I think clearly stat analysis at it’s very basic level is always going to be useful. I think the question should be if the advanced statistics that are (arguably) still in their infancy are useful. You don’t see it as much in the football context, but it’s been this has been the raging debate in baseball for a while now.

Linked is an example of the typical argument:

http://www.baseballdailydigest.com/2010/03/06/a-theory-on-the-acceptance-of-sabermetrics/

Personally I think that the advanced stats are just another tool in player evaluation; no more no less. They are helpful (and at times very helpful) particularly in ways that traditional scouting can’t cover, but often I feel that advocates of the statistical analysis and models get too wrapped up in the numbers and can (to a certain extent) ignore the fact that the game is still played by flesh and blood players.

by HaloFanInDC on Mar 11, 2010 11:16 AM PST reply actions  

At least where MLB is concerned

Only two clubs don’t have an analytic department, so it’s well accepted in exactly the way you described – just another useful tool in a club’s arsenal to gain a competitive advantage with player evaluation.

The raging debate is just a fan/cranky sports writer-driven thing.

by dgriot on Mar 11, 2010 11:59 AM PST up reply actions  

I don’t even like to use the term infancy when describing advanced stats in a football context.

Infancy makes it seems there is plenty of room to grow but I’m not sure we have the mathematics. Baseball plays can be measured one event at a time. Football plays have many moving parts and variables that effect one another. There is an ocean of things to examine but capability might only allow us to dip our toes in the water.

by bignerd on Mar 11, 2010 12:26 PM PST up reply actions  

Not saying football stats should not be looked into, explored or won’t yield results. I’m trying to say in comparison to baseball, football stats may never reach that depth of knowledge or insight because the science and math is lousy dealing with the complexity of football plays.

by bignerd on Mar 11, 2010 1:11 PM PST up reply actions  

actually...

at a sport psych conference i went to a few years ago, some researchers from europe were using a dynamic video analysis to assess performance. utilized a digital tracker to follow where each player went on each play. so i’d say it’s possible to use stats effectively in a dynamic sport like football.

by Florida Danny on Mar 11, 2010 1:50 PM PST up reply actions  

But you don't believe...

…in statistical analysis of baseball either, at least so far as I can tell from our debates. This is why I find some of the hostility to statistical analysis on this blog disingenous. It seems like you are looking for any reason, however tenuous, to validate your skepticism, rather than honestly engaging the evidence.

by Bigmouth on Mar 12, 2010 8:37 AM PST up reply actions  

I don't see an argument...

…I see one guy who understands what he’s talking about responding to comments by people who clearly don’t.

by Bigmouth on Mar 12, 2010 8:38 AM PST up reply actions  

The saying goes...

Stats don’t win championships, playing (executing plays correctly) does.

by danknerd49 on Mar 11, 2010 11:51 AM PST reply actions  

Maybe it's just me

But I’ve never heard that saying before.

by mr. instigator on Mar 11, 2010 12:51 PM PST up reply actions  

To take that reasoning to it’s extreme, playing and executing plays correctly doesn’t win championships. Winning championships wins championships.

I don't know about that, to the groin.

by howtheyscored on Mar 11, 2010 12:55 PM PST up reply actions  

Aside from the fact that this sentiment isn’t actually a “saying,” it’s also deeply, deeply flawed.

Building a championship-level team means finding the right players; stats are certainly helpful in that regard. Maybe it’s not quite so important in football as it is in baseball, but I’d still say it doesn’t hurt to look at a running back’s yards per carry before signing him to a deal.

Or maybe football is just too much of a man’s game to be pussied up by numbers and other Eastern witchery.

by Wazl on Mar 11, 2010 11:40 PM PST up reply actions  

Great stuff, Danny!

The first link takes you to the wrong page, but the rest of the articles were really, really fascinating. I was particularly struck by the observation that basketball stats generally, and +/- specifically, are very consistent from year to year, when adjusted for playing time, etc. As a poster named Just_A-Lad pointed out in the comments to the Houston blog, they are even MORE consistent than baseball stats, implying even greater predictive power. It was a revealing counterpoint to Friedman’s anti-stats piece that Drummer linked to a while back.

Come to think of it, I’d recommend Just_A_Lad’s comments over Hochschild’s actual blog post. The former does an excellent job of debunking the notion of “clutch.” His point about Kobe actually performing WORSE in clutch situations throughout his career was a powerful one.

by Bigmouth on Mar 12, 2010 8:52 AM PST reply actions  

Sorry...

…that should be Only_A_Lad’s comments.

by Bigmouth on Mar 12, 2010 9:15 AM PST up reply actions  

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