The QB Position, A Comparative Analysis
by nocal81(Vincent) on Mar 13, 2010 1:38 PM PST
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Many of us declared that Alex Smith had a good 2009 season and should be given the starting job right away entering the 2010 campaign. Mike Singletary pretty much confirmed this thinking when he named Smith the starter for the 2010 season a couple weeks ago; this when many other starting QB jobs are up in the air. This vote of confidence from the 49ers head coach was strengthened, in my opinion, when the 49ers signed David Carr. What this did was eliminate the whole question about whether Shaun Hill was being kept on the roster to "challenge" Alex Smith at the 2010 training camp. Other 49er fans have extracted differing opinions of the Carr signing, thus taking a different stance and believing Carr was brought in to challenge Alex smith, i don't see it that way.
There will be QB competition in many cities come July. St. Louis, Arizona, Carolina, Washington, Oakland, Cleveland, Buffalo and most likely Minnesota come to mind. So is it a good thing that the 49ers have apparently decided on their QB this early in the off-season? I say yes. It allows them to focus on other needs, competitions and gives Alex Smith the confidence he has been lacking since being drafted #1 overall.. I have decided to take a comparative approach at how Alex Smith stacks up against other QB's in the NFL that have had success as well as 49er QB's of the past, starting with Jeff Garcia. Keep in mind that i am not comparing Smith to these players in the grand scheme of things, rather i am comparing them to said players in regards to his 10 starts in the 2009 season, and there previous campaign as well. Now i am not saying that a small example of 10 starts is the best utilization of compare and contrast, but in regards to Smith it is all we can use at this point.
Alex Smith: 31 Attempts per int- 1.5 TD/INT ratio- 241 Yards PG- 60.5 Comp %- 1 sack per 16.9 attempts
45% of his games Smith had a QB rating of over 90%, compared to 36% with a rating under 70
Kyle Orton: 45 Attempts per int- 1.75 TD/INT ratio- 237.6 Yards PG- 62.1 Comp %- 1 sack per 18.7 attempts
56% of his games with a QB rating over 90%, 27% with a rating under 70
Matt Cassel: 31 Attempts per int- 1-1 TD/INT ratio- 195 Yards PG- 55.0 Comp %- 1 sack per 11.7 attempts
33% with a QB rating over 90, 44% with a QB rating under 70
Joe Flacco: 39 Attempts per int- 1.7 TD/INT ratio- 225.8 Yards PG- 63.1 Comp %- 1 sack per 13.9 attempts
50% with a QB rating over 90, 19% with a QB rating under 70
Carson Palmer: 35 Attempts per int- 1.6 TD/INT ratio- 193 Yards PG- 60.2 Comp %- 1 sack per 17.9 attempts
31% with a QB rating over 90, 33% with a QB rating under 70
Vince Young: 35 Attempts per int- 1.4 TD/INT ratio- 170 Yards PG- 58.7 Comp %- 1 sack per 28.7 attempts
54% with a QB rating over 90, 18% with a QB rating under 70
Chad Henne: 35 Attempts per int- (-) 0.85 TD/INT ratio- 205 Yards PG- 60.8 Comp %- 1 sack per 32.2 attempts
23% with a QB rating over 90, 46% with a QB rating under 70
Matt Hasselbeck: 29 Attempts per int- even TD/INT ratio- 216.3 Yards PG- 60.0 Comp %- 1 sack per 15.2 atttempts
35% with a QB rating over 90, 50% with a QB rating under 70
Matt Ryan: 32 Attempts per int- 1.6 TD/INT ratio- 208.3 Yards PG- 58.3 Comp%- 1 sack per 23.7 attempts
29% with a QB rating over 90, 36% with a QB rating under 70
Now i used these statistical comparisons in order to gauge a certain players consistent play, or lack there of. I also used the sack per attempt stat to gauge both the amount of time it took for each to release the ball and the play of the offensive line. Of these group of QB's only Matt Ryan, Chad Henne and Joe Flacco are younger, with less experience.In terms of Alex Smith and the sack statistic, this is a combination of two factors; the he released the ball quicker than did Shaun Hill and the offensive line player better under him than it did under Hill.
David Carr, last season as a starter was 2006
36.8 Attempts per int- even TD/INT ratio- 197.6 Yards PG- 68.3 Comp %- 1 sack per 10.8 attempts
38% with a QB rating over 90, 36% with rating under 70.
Shaun Hill, 2008 Statistics
36.0 Attempts per int- 1.6 TD/INT ratio- 240.7 Yards PG- 62.8 Comp %- 1 sack per 12.5 attempts
52% with a QB rating over 90, 20% with a rating under 70.
Note: 7.1 Yards per attempt compared to Alex smith 6.3 in 2009, a lot of that has to do with play calling and Mike Martz system compared to that of Jimmy Raye
Tim Rattay, 2004 Statistics
32.5 Attempts per int- even TD/INT ratio- 241 Yards PG- 60.9 Comp%- 1 sack per 8.8 attempts
33% with a QB rating over 90, 33% with a rating under 70.
Jeff Garcia, 2003 Statistics
2003: 30.1 Attempts per int- 1.38 TD/INT ratio- 208 Yards PG- 57.4 Comp %- 1 sack per 18.7 attempts
31% with a QB rating over 90, 23% with a QB rating under 70.
Available QB's: Jason Campbell, Brady Quinn, Jake Delhomme, Marc Bulger, Donovan Mcnabb and Kevin Kolb
Possible Rookie QB's: Sam Bradford, Jimmy Clausen, Colt Mccoy, Tim Tebow, Tony Pike, Dan LaFevour and Javon Sneed.
The entire point of this thread was not to make statements about whether or not Alex Smith is the answer at QB, rather it was created in order to compare Alex Smith to other QB's that may or may not be at his level, and to contrast what i view to be important stats in gauging a QB's success. I do understand that the sample of Alex Smith's 2009 season isn't entirely great in terms of true value, but it is the only indicative statistic i could use two compare and contrast. Alex Smith has matured a great deal over the course of the last two seasons, mostly with his confidence on and off the field; so it would be foolhardy to compare his stats from previous seasons to his statistics in the 2009 season; also he has a much better surrounding playmakers around him. This statistical analysis is not fool proof, that i completely understand. This mostly due to the fact that other QB's on this list may have worse offensive lines and supporting players around them, in the same sense some of the have better offensive lines and more play makers.
I also wanted to gauge how comfortable 49er fans are in having Alex Smith as the starting QB heading into the 2010 season, these statistics were used to give you a tool in order to come up with your best conclusion.
Thanks for reading
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.
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I really like this article--rec'd
I like that you broke these QBs down according to percentages and ‘per-play’ averages rather than raw yards, as this negates some of the difficulty in making comparisons due to the fact that Smith only played half the season.
Also, I’m pretty sure that David Carr takes way too many sacks: only Rattay took more among the QBs you listed. Can you learn pocket presence? Can you recover it?
Jason Hill is turning the corner!
pocket presence
Good question. Is it something you can develop, or is it just instinctual?
by David Fucillo on Mar 13, 2010 8:16 PM PST up reply actions
I vote Instincts, and can be coachable when the OL and the QB have chemistry within the offense.
Where blitz pickups becime a thought and not a guess is involved.
Equation= 1,2,2,3,3 is a lot better than 1,1,2,3 in a deep draft, especially when your 1 nets you E berry.
Alex Smith is not a bust, he is a product of poor management and coaching.
These
Options are why I vote to bolster the defense and OL in the offseason.
Equation= 1,2,2,3,3 is a lot better than 1,1,2,3 in a deep draft, especially when your 1 nets you E berry.
Alex Smith is not a bust, he is a product of poor management and coaching.
I'm not understanding the comparison
None of those QBs listed played well last year. I’m not really seeing the point of comparing Alex Smith to the bottom half of QBs in the league.
I was using
comparative analysis in terms of the 2009 season
"Iess us expect nothing but greatness from ourselves"
by nocal81(Vincent) on Mar 13, 2010 10:55 PM PST up reply actions
But my point is none of the those QB played well in 2009. Palmer and Ryan were the two biggest names on the list and both had dissappointing seasons. Flacco is overrated himself, Baltimore did not play well when they tried to lead their offense with the passing game.
The Fact
that we are comparing Alex Smith to those QB’s says something.
Keep in mind that Alex Smith is barely older than Matt Ryan, but if you were to switch the names and say “Matt Ryan is the 49ers QB” you would be happy.
"Iess us expect nothing but greatness from ourselves"
by nocal81(Vincent) on Mar 13, 2010 11:23 PM PST up reply actions
No, I would not be happy. Those were not high performing QBs in 2009. All this comparision says to me is Alex Smith played at Carson Palmer’s and Matt Ryan’s subpar level.
On the same level as Kyle Orton, Matt Cassel, Joe Flacco, Vince Young, Chad Henne and Matt Hasselbeck isn’t comforting either. Flacco is the only QB on this list that isn’t starting 2010 with a huge question mark next to his name . . . probably because his OC played a huge part in his underachieving performance.
I’m not trying to rip Alex Smith, I’m trying to understand why this analysis would make me feel better about Alex Smith? I’m already aware he’s an unstable/unknown commodity like Henne, Orton, Young and Cassell.
I Am Not Sure If This
was created to make you feel good about Alex Smith, that is your decision, but it was created to give you the tools to compare Smith to other QB’s around the league.
Let me compare him to Matt Ryan for a second. Ryan is going to turn 25 in May and has made 30 career starts. Alex Smith on the other hand is going to turn 26 in May and has made 10 more career starts than Matt Ryan. Not much of a difference there huh? I am wondering what you opinion would be if we had Matt Ryan on our roster rather than Alex Smith. They compare very well to one another, yet the preconceived notion around these areas is that Smith is a bust and Matt Ryan has a great future ahead of him. Why is that?
"Iess us expect nothing but greatness from ourselves"
by nocal81(Vincent) on Mar 14, 2010 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Are you just gonna use numbers?...
like career starts and just leave them there?
Well, we're waiting....
Drummer
i know your stance on some of the stats i use. I did mention that this may not be the best indicator of a players success; but i also added the fact that it is incredibly hard to gauge Alex Smith because of his lack of starts since being drafted. I used that as a model to “compare” Matt Ryan to Alex Smith, at least in terms of experience and to some degree success.
I also wanted Nerds opinion in regards to the preconceived notion that Smith is a bust and Ryan is a success. When in fact they compare to one another a great deal with the exception of Ryan leading the Falcons to the playoffs in 2008.
"Iess us expect nothing but greatness from ourselves"
by nocal81(Vincent) on Mar 14, 2010 6:15 PM PDT up reply actions
First, just use an eyeball test...
Ryan is far ahead of Smith in a lot of areas at QB, He has a faster release, slides well in the pocket and has good awareness in it, has a good command of play action, is decisive, can play under center, does well in multi step drops, is fairly accurate, and has a good arm. This was shown in his rookie year, and was already more pro-ready than Smith. So in comparison : Ryan >> Smith already. The numbers you are using aren’t trying to find a reasons in comparison. Rather, they are trying to reason a comparison.
Really, if you really want to look at 2009 Smith in numbers, just look at 1st half Smith to 2nd half Smith. That tells more of the overall story.
Well, we're waiting....
Smith had a 90+ QB rating in the 2nd half, that is darn good if you ask me, this compared to Ryan who had a rating in the low 70’s in the 2nd half. Getting stronger as the game goes on is really important to the success of a QB and the team in general. Smith also had a QB rating in the mid 90’s during the final two minutes of each half, compared to Ryan who had a rating in the 70’s once again. Smith had a rating of 84 in road games, Ryan had a rating of 72 in road games.
What about 3rd downs? Another important stat in terms of success
Ryan: 72.3 Smith: 84.2
What About the 4th quarter?
Ryan: 73 Smith: 82
What About when ahead by less than 7 points?
Ryan: 50.1 Smith: 92.3
Smith had a QB rating of 100.3 in the redzone compared to Matt Ryan who had a pedestrian rating of 81 in the redzone
Smith was sacked 2.2 times per game compared to Ryan who was sacked 1.9 times per game
Smith had a QB rating of 95 in passes 11-30 compared to Ryan who had a rating of 77 in the same situations.
In terms of arm strength. Are you saying Smith doesn’t have that? I think you would be mistaken in terms of that. Also the 49ers dropped a whole lot of passes and that must be figured in when it comes to his QB rating and Comp%.
"Iess us expect nothing but greatness from ourselves"
by nocal81(Vincent) on Mar 14, 2010 7:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Well..
One of the 49er problems wasn’t that they got stronger in the second half. They started out poor in the first. Again, you’re trying to reason stats without addressing the reality. It terms of 3rd down success: just how good was the 49ers on 3rd down this season? They were one of the worst 3rd down teams in the League IIRC. You’re trying to compare Ryan in the second half to Smith without regard to ATL posting a sizable lead due to the pass. LOL, ATL won a game with only 2 passes completed in 3 attempts. Did this figure into your stat analysis? No?
I dunno if you figured in Smith throwing only 1 TD per game in his last 3, or that he was regressing. I figured you probably won’t because it doesn’t suit your template for calculation.
Really poor attempt using stats here. I didn’t address any of what I posted, and your analysis isn’t exactly analysis. It’s throwing crap against a wall hoping it sticks.
Well, we're waiting....
Your Not
taking into account the play calling that was absolutely horrid on 3rd downs, that is no fault of Alex Smith. Or what about the multiple dropped passes on 3rd down. I counted over 15 in the course of the season, and that might be a conservative estimate. Smith’s TD’s in the final 3 games is not an indicator of his success. Frank Gore had 3 touchdowns in those final 3 games, that is the reason why Smith’s TD total was down. The 49ers did also average well over 300 yards in those final 3 games.
How exactly is breaking down QB ratings in certain situations “throwing crap against the wall”? I would love for you to explain that to me. Also i find it more important that a QB finishes the game strong, rather than start it strong.
"Iess us expect nothing but greatness from ourselves"
by nocal81(Vincent) on Mar 14, 2010 8:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Becuase all your numbers..
didn’t address any of the points I made, and that like yourself, I saw a lot of Smith and really know that the poor starts are more an indicator of losing than trying to catch up late, and that he was regressing back into mediocre play against real poor teams like the Rams late. I’m trying to figure how you are qualifying your stats. I find it cherry picking at best, because those types of stats aren’t really meant for compare one QB to the other. You’re going as far as to not blame Smith for anything like 3rd down conversions, while blaming Ryan for their 3rd down conversion rate. Of course, everything I’ve used to compare both those 2 without numbers you still can’t address, and you had to use numbers that can be picked apart and are not useful at all IMO. Why? Because again, your analysis is trying to reason the numbers instead of giving us the reason.
Instead of admitting that Ryan is a more fundamentally sound QB than Smith.
I’m with bignerd on his point of why you are using stats to compare a Ryan’s sophomore season to qualify Smith, as well as the other QBs on your list.
Well, we're waiting....
I’m still on my original point. Matt Ryan did not play well in 2009 so what’s the point of comparing Alex Smith to another QB’s disappointing season? In fact his stats were not overwhelming his rookie season either, except when you consider he was rookie.
I could care less about the public perception, it’s fickle and inaccurate. Matt Ryan plays his first few games next season like he ended this season and the “B” word will start be openly hung around his neck.
BTW, I hate age comparison, it’s ridiculous and purposely deceptive. You are using career starts to demonstrate an equality between the two, it’s not. One guy has managed to start as many games in 2 season as the other guy has in 5 seasons. Why because the guy with 2 seasons has been demonstrably better. He doesn’t get benched, he doesn’t get injured, he wins the starting the job in training camp.
Fair Enough
Just remember i was not saying that Smith compares to or is as good as Matt Ryan. I was using the statistical comparison as a module to show where Alex Smith stands. Instead of using stats that make no sense, i replaced them with ones that you could easily use to interpret one’s success.
How is using age “purposely deceptive”? It is written there in black and white, take out of it what you like, but it is fact. Also the statistics i listed in this post are fact, that you cannot argue. Once again it is your decision to take it which way you like.
"Iess us expect nothing but greatness from ourselves"
by nocal81(Vincent) on Mar 14, 2010 11:38 PM PDT up reply actions
Hey! You take that back about Joe Flacco! I really don’t see how anyone can say he’s overrated. He just had what appears to be the best sophomore season for a quarterback since Peyton Manning. He improved in nearly every significant statistical measure from his rookie season, and there’s no reason to believe that he won’t get better. What part of that is overrated?
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Mar 14, 2010 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions
The part where I watched a ton of Baltimore games last season the Ravens tried to strictly pass the ball on Flacco’s arms for the first 3 quarters only to find themselves trailing in the 4th. Then in the 4th Qtr the Ravens started mixing in runs and dump off passes to Ray Rice (which heavily bloated Flacco’s stats) to get themselves back in the game.
Well, I don’t exactly see how not being the perfect center of your team’s offense is exactly a knock on a second year player, but I think it’s pretty obvious that your opinion here is going to be pretty unflappable. As is mine.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Mar 15, 2010 8:02 AM PDT up reply actions
Hey, you take that back about Joe Flacco!
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Mar 14, 2010 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions
OKAY
it is hard to compare Alex Smith’s 2009 season to his previous campaigns as a QB; so i decided to use a better analysis. This was used to disable those opinions that recognize only pure stats. In terms of pocket presence, it can be taught through various process’s . The improvement of the offensive line and the ability of the QB to release the ball.
I do agree with Lott in regards to the compantency of the offensive line and communication between them and the QB, that is 100% correct. Alex Smith gained that presence as he went a long in 2009, because he received this boost
"Iess us expect nothing but greatness from ourselves"
by nocal81(Vincent) on Mar 13, 2010 10:54 PM PST reply actions
Pocket Awareness
is not learned. It’s the Essense of a true QB. It’s the sixth sense that many Men don’t posess. Only a few have it. Joe, Steve, Peyton and a few others were born with it. Smith does not posess that sense no matter what he does or what the team ( Off. / Def. ) can do for him. Let not fool ourselves to think that he has it.
As football is not actually a survival instinct, I find it highly suspect to say that anybody is “born” with it, and even more highly suspect to champion it as being a skill that is not acquired.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Mar 22, 2010 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions
Smith
Smith will get better this season. Especially beefing up the ol and strong running game. Crabtree and Davis also will have something to prove to help there QB.
Bottom line is Smith is an inaccurate QB. Percentage of completions is moot.
What I mean is ball placement, the greatest QB’s put the ball EXACTLY where it needs to be. Great QB’s that are young and ACCURATE make bad reads, but eventually make the right ones, and move above the pack, I don’t see Smith ever being the answer, but he can surprise me. He can surprise us all, by either taking the reigns and excelling or folding and let Carr resurge his career, or we can find ourselves out of the playoffs yet again.
Equation= 1,2,2,3,3 is a lot better than 1,1,2,3 in a deep draft, especially when your 1 nets you E berry.
Alex Smith is not a bust, he is a product of poor management and coaching.
This will be the last year of excuses for A.Smith
After this season is done, no one will be able to say it was because of changing OC’s, injured shoulder, not utilizing enough spread shotgun plays, lack of talented receiving corps and lack of starts. The team is his now, hopefully he will unlock the potential that so many see in him. We’ve seen flashes of it so far. He needs to live up to his Madden rating for once.
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