Many of us declared that Alex Smith had a good 2009 season and should be given the starting job right away entering the 2010 campaign. Mike Singletary pretty much confirmed this thinking when he named Smith the starter for the 2010 season a couple weeks ago; this when many other starting QB jobs are up in the air. This vote of confidence from the 49ers head coach was strengthened, in my opinion, when the 49ers signed David Carr. What this did was eliminate the whole question about whether Shaun Hill was being kept on the roster to "challenge" Alex Smith at the 2010 training camp. Other 49er fans have extracted differing opinions of the Carr signing, thus taking a different stance and believing Carr was brought in to challenge Alex smith, i don't see it that way.
There will be QB competition in many cities come July. St. Louis, Arizona, Carolina, Washington, Oakland, Cleveland, Buffalo and most likely Minnesota come to mind. So is it a good thing that the 49ers have apparently decided on their QB this early in the off-season? I say yes. It allows them to focus on other needs, competitions and gives Alex Smith the confidence he has been lacking since being drafted #1 overall.. I have decided to take a comparative approach at how Alex Smith stacks up against other QB's in the NFL that have had success as well as 49er QB's of the past, starting with Jeff Garcia. Keep in mind that i am not comparing Smith to these players in the grand scheme of things, rather i am comparing them to said players in regards to his 10 starts in the 2009 season, and there previous campaign as well. Now i am not saying that a small example of 10 starts is the best utilization of compare and contrast, but in regards to Smith it is all we can use at this point.
Alex Smith: 31 Attempts per int- 1.5 TD/INT ratio- 241 Yards PG- 60.5 Comp %- 1 sack per 16.9 attempts
45% of his games Smith had a QB rating of over 90%, compared to 36% with a rating under 70
Kyle Orton: 45 Attempts per int- 1.75 TD/INT ratio- 237.6 Yards PG- 62.1 Comp %- 1 sack per 18.7 attempts
56% of his games with a QB rating over 90%, 27% with a rating under 70
Matt Cassel: 31 Attempts per int- 1-1 TD/INT ratio- 195 Yards PG- 55.0 Comp %- 1 sack per 11.7 attempts
33% with a QB rating over 90, 44% with a QB rating under 70
Joe Flacco: 39 Attempts per int- 1.7 TD/INT ratio- 225.8 Yards PG- 63.1 Comp %- 1 sack per 13.9 attempts
50% with a QB rating over 90, 19% with a QB rating under 70
Carson Palmer: 35 Attempts per int- 1.6 TD/INT ratio- 193 Yards PG- 60.2 Comp %- 1 sack per 17.9 attempts
31% with a QB rating over 90, 33% with a QB rating under 70
Vince Young: 35 Attempts per int- 1.4 TD/INT ratio- 170 Yards PG- 58.7 Comp %- 1 sack per 28.7 attempts
54% with a QB rating over 90, 18% with a QB rating under 70
Chad Henne: 35 Attempts per int- (-) 0.85 TD/INT ratio- 205 Yards PG- 60.8 Comp %- 1 sack per 32.2 attempts
23% with a QB rating over 90, 46% with a QB rating under 70
Matt Hasselbeck: 29 Attempts per int- even TD/INT ratio- 216.3 Yards PG- 60.0 Comp %- 1 sack per 15.2 atttempts
35% with a QB rating over 90, 50% with a QB rating under 70
Matt Ryan: 32 Attempts per int- 1.6 TD/INT ratio- 208.3 Yards PG- 58.3 Comp%- 1 sack per 23.7 attempts
29% with a QB rating over 90, 36% with a QB rating under 70
Now i used these statistical comparisons in order to gauge a certain players consistent play, or lack there of. I also used the sack per attempt stat to gauge both the amount of time it took for each to release the ball and the play of the offensive line. Of these group of QB's only Matt Ryan, Chad Henne and Joe Flacco are younger, with less experience.In terms of Alex Smith and the sack statistic, this is a combination of two factors; the he released the ball quicker than did Shaun Hill and the offensive line player better under him than it did under Hill.
David Carr, last season as a starter was 2006
36.8 Attempts per int- even TD/INT ratio- 197.6 Yards PG- 68.3 Comp %- 1 sack per 10.8 attempts
38% with a QB rating over 90, 36% with rating under 70.
Shaun Hill, 2008 Statistics
36.0 Attempts per int- 1.6 TD/INT ratio- 240.7 Yards PG- 62.8 Comp %- 1 sack per 12.5 attempts
52% with a QB rating over 90, 20% with a rating under 70.
Note: 7.1 Yards per attempt compared to Alex smith 6.3 in 2009, a lot of that has to do with play calling and Mike Martz system compared to that of Jimmy Raye
Tim Rattay, 2004 Statistics
32.5 Attempts per int- even TD/INT ratio- 241 Yards PG- 60.9 Comp%- 1 sack per 8.8 attempts
33% with a QB rating over 90, 33% with a rating under 70.
Jeff Garcia, 2003 Statistics
2003: 30.1 Attempts per int- 1.38 TD/INT ratio- 208 Yards PG- 57.4 Comp %- 1 sack per 18.7 attempts
31% with a QB rating over 90, 23% with a QB rating under 70.
Possible Rookie QB's: Sam Bradford, Jimmy Clausen, Colt Mccoy, Tim Tebow, Tony Pike, Dan LaFevour and Javon Sneed.
The entire point of this thread was not to make statements about whether or not Alex Smith is the answer at QB, rather it was created in order to compare Alex Smith to other QB's that may or may not be at his level, and to contrast what i view to be important stats in gauging a QB's success. I do understand that the sample of Alex Smith's 2009 season isn't entirely great in terms of true value, but it is the only indicative statistic i could use two compare and contrast. Alex Smith has matured a great deal over the course of the last two seasons, mostly with his confidence on and off the field; so it would be foolhardy to compare his stats from previous seasons to his statistics in the 2009 season; also he has a much better surrounding playmakers around him. This statistical analysis is not fool proof, that i completely understand. This mostly due to the fact that other QB's on this list may have worse offensive lines and supporting players around them, in the same sense some of the have better offensive lines and more play makers.
I also wanted to gauge how comfortable 49er fans are in having Alex Smith as the starting QB heading into the 2010 season, these statistics were used to give you a tool in order to come up with your best conclusion.
Thanks for reading
How Comfortable Are You With Alex Smith Heading Into The 2010 Season?
Completely (44 votes)
Somwhat (53 votes)
Little (23 votes)
None (14 votes)
134 total votes