Statistical Preview of 2010 Free Agency...Niners Style
Hey everyone...only have a couple of hours left until the 2010 free agency period begins. Really quickly, I'm going to present some stats for a handful of unresistricted free agents at each position I think the Niners will be addressing via that route. In my now-complete season reviews, I identified the following positions that the Niners need to address:
- #2 RB
- #3 WR
- Pass-protecting OT
- KR/PR
I'll add a couple more that aren't necessarily needs, but are always helpful to have in abundance: CB and SS. This is especially true right now given that the Niners' 2 starting CBs going into 2009 ended up on injured reserve, and their starting SS had a series of concussions (not to mention that he's old).
So, of these 6 positions, I think #2 RB is best addressed during the draft because the Niners are looking for someone to effectively spell Gore, not compete with him for important carries. The jury's still out on Coffee, and most of the RB free agents are guys who are old, but still think they should start somewhere (e.g., LaDainian Tomlinson, Thomas Jones, etc.)
Another position I think will be addressed best in the draft is KR/PR, simply because it tends to be easier (and cheaper) to fill that role in the draft. Finally, I also think SS doesn't require a free agent signing because (a) there are slim pickings out there, and (b) the Niners already have options like Reggie Smith and -- dare I say -- Nate Clements already on the roster.
So, after the jump I'll just present the stats for #3 WRs, pass-protecting OTs, and CBs...
Be warned...not much commentary here from me. If you want to discuss stuff, populate the comment section here or in Fooch's upcoming free agency open thread.
#3 WRs
Here's the table for #3 WRs, showing their 2009 stats and their 3-year averages (best in bold; worst in italics):
|
|
|
2009 |
3-Year Avg |
||||||
|
WR |
Age |
Targets |
DVOA |
DYAR/T |
Yds/T |
Targets |
DVOA |
DYAR/T |
Yds/T |
|
Antonio Bryant |
29 |
87 |
-12.2% |
0.03 |
6.90 |
112.5 |
0.6% |
1.28 |
8.24 |
|
Nate Burleson |
29 |
103 |
0.7% |
1.06 |
7.88 |
69.0 |
5.4% |
1.14 |
7.57 |
|
Chris Chambers |
32 |
92 |
1.2% |
1.09 |
7.93 |
95.0 |
-0.9% |
0.87 |
7.59 |
|
Lee Evans |
29 |
95 |
-11.2% |
0.12 |
6.44 |
103.3 |
-3.4% |
0.72 |
8.02 |
|
Torry Holt |
34 |
102 |
-14.3% |
-0.13 |
7.08 |
123.3 |
-6.0% |
0.65 |
7.33 |
|
Derrick Mason |
36 |
134 |
4.2% |
1.34 |
7.67 |
139.7 |
4.0% |
1.23 |
7.55 |
|
Muhsin Muhammad |
37 |
89 |
-6.8% |
0.46 |
6.53 |
92.3 |
-2.3% |
0.87 |
7.49 |
|
Terrell Owens |
36 |
109 |
-14.8% |
-0.17 |
7.61 |
129.7 |
2.6% |
1.30 |
8.32 |
|
Kevin Walter |
29 |
70 |
22.5% |
2.80 |
8.73 |
90.3 |
16.1% |
2.23 |
8.52 |
Kevin Walter looks pretty good here...
Pass-Protecting OTs
Here's the table for OTs:
|
|
|
2009 |
3-Year Avg |
||
|
OT |
Age |
Sack Rate |
PBP |
Sack Rate |
PBP |
|
Kirk Chambers |
31 |
2.1% |
5.5% |
1.5% |
5.5% |
|
Chad Clifton |
34 |
0.9% |
4.5% |
1.4% |
4.5% |
|
Mike Gandy |
31 |
1.8% |
7.6% |
1.1% |
6.5% |
|
Cornell Green |
34 |
1.1% |
5.3% |
1.5% |
5.4% |
|
Levi Jones |
31 |
1.9% |
9.5% |
1.5% |
6.7% |
|
Orlando Pace |
34 |
0.2% |
7.6% |
0.2% |
5.6% |
|
Tony Pashos |
30 |
1.9% |
2.7% |
1.5% |
5.5% |
|
Jonathan Scott |
27 |
2.6% |
6.4% |
2.6% |
6.6% |
|
Barry Sims |
35 |
0.3% |
4.1% |
1.4% |
5.3% |
|
Mark Tauscher |
33 |
0.7% |
6.0% |
1.0% |
6.3% |
Just so you know, Sack Rate is sacks per snap spent pass blocking, while PBP is the pass-blocking productivity index from Pro Football Focus. We can discuss me using this stuff in the comments, but I feel comfortable with it.
Need a pass-protector? Orlando Pace and Barry Sims look pretty good. Old, but good.
CBs
Here's the table for CBs:
|
|
|
2009 |
3-Year Avg |
||||||
|
CB |
Age |
Thrown% |
Comp% |
Yds/T |
PD% |
Thrown% |
Comp% |
Yds/T |
PD% |
|
Benny Sapp |
29 |
14.5% |
70.2% |
7.51 |
35.3% |
15.7% |
71.8% |
7.42 |
19.4% |
|
Dre Bly |
33 |
12.4% |
57.6% |
7.25 |
16.9% |
15.2% |
61.8% |
8.05 |
27.4% |
|
Dunta Robinson |
28 |
13.3% |
65.9% |
7.24 |
25.0% |
13.9% |
62.8% |
7.31 |
29.5% |
|
Leigh Bodden |
28 |
18.4% |
50.0% |
5.72 |
26.7% |
18.5% |
59.2% |
7.33 |
26.3% |
|
Nick Harper |
35 |
21.1% |
72.4% |
8.11 |
20.8% |
21.3% |
62.9% |
6.86 |
21.5% |
|
Terence Newman |
31 |
14.4% |
56.4% |
7.43 |
29.3% |
15.8% |
61.1% |
7.60 |
24.1% |
|
Walt Harris |
36 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
14.7% |
64.1% |
7.97 |
28.3% |
|
William James |
31 |
20.3% |
61.3% |
7.39 |
22.0% |
19.5% |
60.6% |
8.50 |
16.4% |
So you know, Thrown% is the % of snaps in coverage that the CB was thrown at by the opposing QB. Also, PD% is the % of incomplete passes thrown at the CB's intended receiver in which the CB actually knocked the pass down (as opposed to a drop or bad QB throw).
My favorites? Dunta Robinson and Leigh Bodden.
OK...discuss away. Hope these stats help our understanding of the free agents that are most likely to be looked at intensely by the Niners.
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Comments
darn
we need either dunta or bodden
clements, dunta, spencer, hopefully resign bly?
DREAM DRAFT:
1a. Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers
1b. CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson
2. Best CB available
3. Freddie Barnes, WR, Bowling Green
by MichaelClutchtree on Mar 4, 2010 8:20 PM PST up reply actions
I wouldnt mind that
but I dont know if we can get him
I miss Joe Montana/Steve Young/Jeff Garcia
by Mr HowsYourWife on Mar 4, 2010 8:23 PM PST up reply actions
I didn't realize Derrick Mason was so old
A computer once beat me at chess, but it was no match for me at kick boxing.
When the season ended it was rumored he was retiring
Which just explains why the Ravens snapped up Stallworth so quickly
And are pursuing Boldin
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on Mar 5, 2010 2:16 PM PST up reply actions
we really should make a push for jared gaither
he has a first round tender, and he would be worth giving our #17 pick up for him rather than a college guy. staley and gaither would set our tackle position for 5+ years!
be sure to add a poison pill clause, ex: give a 7 year, $49M contract with $15M guaranteed but if he plays more than 4 games in any regular season in the state of Maryland over the life of the contract, all $49M is guaranteed
DREAM DRAFT:
1a. Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers
1b. CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson
2. Best CB available
3. Freddie Barnes, WR, Bowling Green
by MichaelClutchtree on Mar 4, 2010 8:36 PM PST reply actions
don't forget
The Redskins stadium is in Maryland. I know the point you’re making, but something to keep in mind for that kind of pill.
by David Fucillo on Mar 4, 2010 8:42 PM PST up reply actions
the niners...
don’t have a history of going after RFA’s under mccloughan. that’s why i limited things to UFAs.
by (Florida) Danny Tuccitto on Mar 4, 2010 9:10 PM PST up reply actions
one can only hope
this will be a great chance
DREAM DRAFT:
1a. Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers
1b. CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson
2. Best CB available
3. Freddie Barnes, WR, Bowling Green
by MichaelClutchtree on Mar 4, 2010 9:14 PM PST up reply actions
After 16.5 million
to Brandon Jones, Is the front office in a position to be looking for another Wide Receiver?
I was "Deific16"
The cake is a lie.
by Sultan of Seitan on Mar 4, 2010 8:59 PM PST reply actions
i'd say...
the ones in that table are light years better than what jones was when they signed him. i think that their motivation for signing him had to do with the fact the lack of talent in their WR corps at that time. afterwards, they drafted crabtree, and morgan seems like a capable #2 or at least #3 WR. so, trying to find a “diamond in the rough” ala brandon jones just doesn’t make much sense anymore. rather, what they need is an older, polished WR who can just go out there and eat catches; someone who already has a track record of being able to produce. plus, it’d be nice to have an old timer to show the youngsters a thing or two now that bruce is retiring. in that context, i’d be shocked if they went the “diamond in the rough” route again. the WR corps would be too young and unproven through the top 4 on the depth chart.
by (Florida) Danny Tuccitto on Mar 4, 2010 9:15 PM PST up reply actions
I agree on Kevin Walter
He’s a very solid WR option, and grossly under utilized in HOU. IMO he could contribute right away in the niner offense. And he’s as cheap this year as he’ll ever be, coming off of a quiet 2009.
by t p on Mar 5, 2010 8:27 AM PST up reply actions
Danny, about those receivers
Why make things complicated by putting in DVOA and DYAR stuff rather than the more concrete and understandable stats of catches and yards?
i did...
it’s in the yards per target column (Yds/T). yards by itself is misleading because the more you get the ball thrown to you, the more you have the opportunity to gain yards. so
“get the ball thrown to you” = targets
“gain yards” = yards
yardage gained per ball thrown to you = yards per target (Yds/T)
by (Florida) Danny Tuccitto on Mar 5, 2010 9:03 AM PST up reply actions
is it bad 4 me
that i don’t remember brandon jones when he was with the titans or it a lack of a prolifc quaterback the reason he didn’t get no shine either way they went after him like he was the hottest WO in the league hes soft and injury prone wow thats a barry zito pic that were stuck hold are balls looking stupid everytime he picks up his check 2 many bad pick ups and wasted money now we can’t move on nobody ill be glad when this FA crap calms down no reason 4 me 2 be intrested if its not the niners
p.s
they should make peppers a 2 way player because they have no recievers talent at all so i can still see them starting off 0-3 or 0-4

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