"Bombing" Out A Historical Look At The Not So Friendly 49er Drafts of The Past
by nocal81(Vincent) on Apr 2, 2010 12:46 AM PDT
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PrintIn part three of my four part installment of past 49ers drafts and how they may affect the 2010 version i will look at the busted hopes and dreams of the faithful on draft day. The players that our loved San Francisco 49ers have selected and determined to be the future of our franchise, when in reality the specific players represented nothing of value, much like the Continental Dollar of centuries before. The draft is pretty much a crap shoot and sometimes teams are left with players that developed into nothing more than a scrub, or completely out of the NFL years later.
I will look at 49er drafts of the past 15 years and what went wrong in the 1st round. With two 1st round picks the 49ers have a greater chance to make a selection that will represent great value, but they also have a greater opportunity to select one of these proverbial busts.
1995: 1(10) WR- JJ Stokes
Greatly heralded coming out of UCLA, JJ Stokes ended up completely bombing out with the 49ers in his 8 seasons with the 49ers, he never acumalated more than 750 yards. For a player selected 10th overall, this represents a major bust. Stokes ended up being a solid #2 or #3 WR for the 49ers for years, but never took that next step. Warren Sapp, Ty Law and Derrick Brooks were among the starts selected after Stokes in the 1st round of the 1995 draft.
1997: 1(27) QB- Jim Druckenmiller
Shouldn't the name have said something? Though taken towards the end of the 1st round, Druckenmiller has to be added to the unheralded list of QB busts that includes Akili Smith, Ryan Leaf and Tim Couch. In 3 seasons in the NFL Druck, as i call him, threw a total of 1 TD pass. Could he have been any worse? Absolute tragedy is the fact that Tiki Barber and Jake Plummer were taken at the top of the 2nd round.
1999: 1(24) DT- Reggie McGrew
Hampered by injuries McGrew never lived up to his potential, and was a complete waste of a pick. His injuries at Florida should have been a sign, but in 3 seasons with the 49ers he combined for a total of 7 tackles and 1 sack.
2002: 1(27) CB- Mike Rumph
His speed should have been a sign of things to come, Rumph should have never been asked to play corner in the NFL and by the time it was time for him to switch positions, he broke down physically. It is a real sad to see Rumph bomb out they way he did, this man was never utilized the way he should have been. I just hope that Earl Thomas isn't a Rumph reincarnation.
2003: 1(26) T- Kwame Harris
Isn't this starting to take on a theme? A major bust two seasons in a row, could this have attributed to the lack of a winning until 2009. Harris was absolutely not a 1st round pick, in fact it is possible that in terms of talent he shouldn't have even been drafted at all. What a major mistake for the 49ers; Harris was out of the NFL in 2009 when players like Larry Johnson, Nick Barnett, Nnamdi Asomugha and EJ Henderson were selected behind him.
2004: 1(31) WR- Rashaun Woods
Three complete busts in a row, and this was probably the worse, by far. Woods caught 7 passes in the NFL total. I cannot stress how bad of a pick this was, you really cannot do any worse with a 1st round selection. Karlos Dansby and Chris Snee were the picks that immediately followed Woods. EPIC FAIL!!!!
2008: 1(28) DL- Kentwan Balmer
It is hard to call him a bust following only two seasons in the NFL, that said the dude has done absolutely nothing to warrant even a top 5 round pick. 19 TACKLES and 0 SACKS in two seasons. Is he going to rival McGrew and Woods?
Most of you may wonder why Alex Smith is not included on this list. It is pretty obvious that he continued to improve last season and will be the starter in 2010, it really wouldn't be right to even put him on this list, but i could see why some may suggest why i should have. It pretty much goes hand in hand the fact that our 49ers drafted three consecutive busts during the middle of the last decade, and the fact that 2010 was our first .500 season during that span. With the exception of Balmer, the 49ers have done pretty darn good in terms of drafting over the course of the last few seasons and i expect that to continue in 2010. 
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.
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Harris
Knowing who we could have selected made me go other.
Druckenmiller
Nuf said.
With a stable coaching staff, an improved cast of teammates and a healthy shoulder, Smith is officially out of excuses...
Thats my line ( nuf said ) you can rent it its cool lol but kwame both kwame's you know the one jordan grabbed 4 a 1st rd
wow i have 2 find a successful ‘’kwame ’’ because its eerie how much these 2 have and if you don’t know kwame used 2 play 4 washington,lakers,detroit,memphis ,i stop counting after that .
Trent Williams
o_O
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on Apr 2, 2010 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions
went with Woods
just because I was so hyped up about him when we drafted him. Also, maybe the team should do away with the #14
"All during film, I'm calling him Bam-Bam, like from 'The Flintstones,' because he hits everything. He is the truth" - Chad Ochocinco on Patrick Willis
Woods, no question was the biggest bust ... but Druckenmiller was the dumbest pick.
Truth is, you can’t really even call Stokes a bust. Thaler’s article, “The Loser’s Curse” says that the odds of the following things are about equal for a first round pick after five years:
1) Out of the league
2) Started zero games
3) Made the all-pro team.
A first-round pick who ends up starting a decent number of games for you, but never really distinguishes himself, a la Stokes or Harris?
Those aren’t busts. Picks get so much worse. Kwame had three years as a full-time starter in a six-year career. I know none of us remember him fondly, and lord knows he wasn’t a good pick. Same with Stokes – a 9-year career where he started, on average, something like half his team’s games.
That doesn’t detract from the stupidity of giving up TWO first round picks to draft him, but a “bust” first round WR is Mike Williams or Charles Rogers. Or Rashaun Woods.
THe Druckenmiller pick still pisses me off because everybody freakin’ knew he was going to suck when we drafted him. It was a classic case of “well, this guy is big and strong and has a great arm, and boy can he lift weights, lets take him over the guy who’s the cager winner who’s teammates love him and seems to rise to the moment.”
In general, I don’t like the practice of finding a better player who was drafted later and declaring a pick a failure because of that. We have to go by what we could tell at the time. (To use an NBA example, there isn’t a single GM who would have taken Kevin Garnett with the first pick in that draft.) But the Druckenmiller pick doesn’t fall into that category because Plummer made so much more sense at the time. Druckenmiller was a classic case of putting more stock in the workouts than in performance on the field … and does that ever pan out?
Teams may fall into that same trap
“putting more stock in the workouts, than performance on the field,” with Taylor Mays this year!
That said, I vote Druckenmiller, it’s a close second with Woods, but Druck had nothing going for him except a strong arm. The man had “ZERO” football intelligence! In 2010 he would be lucky to be chosen as a free agent,after the draft.
I had to go Druckenmiller
A QB that busts can do far more damage to your team than any other position, because you tend to hold on to them too long and you also build your offense around that guy. When he doesn’t work out you have to start all over again.
I do think Stokes was a bust in terms of being a first round talent. If he’d been drafted in the 2nd or 3rd he’d be a solid success story but when you’re picked in the top 10, you’re expected to do more. (My draft research has shown that WRs bust out 81% of the time when picked in the 1st round—that’s the one pick you absolutely want to stay away from).
Member of the legendary David Carr thread, 6 March 2010
not in that 81%
Michael Crabtree!!!
"All during film, I'm calling him Bam-Bam, like from 'The Flintstones,' because he hits everything. He is the truth" - Chad Ochocinco on Patrick Willis
Jerry Rice
Although I think Smileyman’s research only covered the last 6-8 years.
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on Apr 2, 2010 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Jerry Rice first round bust!
To see the bust ,you have to visit the Hall of Fame in Canton!!!
First draft was 7 years
last draft went back to 1990
Member of the legendary David Carr thread, 6 March 2010
81 % first round busts!
That number is staggering, How can it be explained?
In college you can put up great numbers because you might see one NFL caliber
CB a year, maybe two.
In the NFL everything is faster. LBs cover better, defenses move on QBs faster, CBs have better coverage skills, safeties help out over the top better and offenses are more complicated.
Plus I think teams reach on WRs.
Member of the legendary David Carr thread, 6 March 2010
You think?
Plus I think teams reach on WRs.
DHB?
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on Apr 2, 2010 7:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Alex Smith deserves to be on here
Perhaps that’s hard to say about your team’s current starting quarterback, but you don’t use the #1 overall pick in a draft to get a guy who could possibly be a decent starter six years later. Smith is a bust no matter what he does this year IMO,barring perhaps a Brady 2007 type season or something incredible like that. I mean, if the Rams are having QB competitions between Sam Bradford and the 2015 version of David Carr 5 years from now, we can call Bradford a bust right?
Yes indeed, regardless of ALL of the excuses ( OC’s, OL’s, injuries, planetary alignments, sunspots et cetera et cetera )
With a stable coaching staff, an improved cast of teammates and a healthy shoulder, Smith is officially out of excuses...
I don't see how you can call a guy a bust when he's scheduled to be your starter six years into his career.
If he gets unseated by David Carr, that absolutely positively changes things. But I suspect that’s not going to happen, and it doesn’t even seem like we’re on schedule for a real QB competition in camp this year.
“Bust” isn’t synonymous with “disappointment” or “poor pick.”
He's the starter because QB is by far the hardest position to find a playable replacement and he's getting paid a lot
He got beat out by Shaun Hill last year, his 5th season in the NFL!! That’s just sad.
If he gets unseated by David Carr, that absolutely positively changes things.
No, no, no, no. The fact that it’s even a remote possibility that he could get unseated by David Carr solidifies his bust status for me. It’s his 6th year in the league, and he’s still struggling to outshine the dregs of the league.
by Brendan Scolari on Apr 3, 2010 9:49 PM PDT up reply actions
The only one thinking David Carr will win the starting QB in job in the 49ers organization is David Carr.
Sure
But the fact that Ronaldinho would even bring up that possibility is what I was referring to. It shouldn’t even enter our thinking, Smith should have shown more than that. For example, you think Texans fans would consider the possibility that Carr would unseat Matt Schaub (assuming they had signed Carr as a backup)? Of course not. And it’s not as though Schaub is Manning/Brees/Brady. The fact that it would even come up in our discussion at this point in Smith’s career (5 years in) makes Smith a bust, in my opinion.
by Brendan Scolari on Apr 4, 2010 1:09 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm not sure what you're referring to.
What does that trade have to do with anything?
by Brendan Scolari on Apr 4, 2010 6:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Because Schaub was clearly brought in by the Texans to replace Carr. They traded two 2nd picks over the summer to get Schaub. Carr was signed as a free agent backup QB by the 49ers. So I don’t understand your analogy between Carr/Schaub → Smith/Carr.
Oh
I’m saying if the Texans had signed Carr this offseason, there would be no thought of him replacing Schuab, because he obviously wouldn’t, couldn’t, and shouldn’t.
by Brendan Scolari on Apr 4, 2010 7:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Right
Probably not a good comparison just because of Carr’s previous stint with the Texans. But a player with equivalent skill to Carr works the same way.
by Brendan Scolari on Apr 5, 2010 1:07 AM PDT up reply actions
I see
Well I am not the first one to mention it on this website.
by Brendan Scolari on Apr 4, 2010 7:20 PM PDT up reply actions
It's basically opinion
just like yours… there is no factual evidence you can bring to the table to prove he is or isn’t. The one fact we can bring to the table that is relevant though is that he’s still very young and has been showing signs of life.
…he’s getting paid a lot
He is? I thought Smith was making money close to most NFL backups.
"It came down like a punt, Coach!" - Josh Morgan
I believe he only deferred the money
According to bignerd, he’s still making $6 million.
by Brendan Scolari on Apr 4, 2010 6:57 PM PDT up reply actions
bignerd is wrong
he restructured it completely.
2 year deal worth a total of $6.5 million with another almost $5 million available through bonuses
Member of the legendary David Carr thread, 6 March 2010
Ok, I had the terms wrong but I did think the deal was around $12 million for 2 years. With him starting this season and half the games last season I’m guessing he is close to getting all that money.
I wouldn't be surprised to see him get that bonus
unless it was something ridiculous like making the Pro Bowl
Member of the legendary David Carr thread, 6 March 2010
But if he does have a large salary because of an earned bonus -
- you can’t complain that the team played him because of his large salary, which was Brendan’s contention above.
I believe he only deferred the money
According to bignerd, he’s still making $6 million.
by Brendan Scolari on Apr 4, 2010 6:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Alex restructured his deal to a 2 year deal worth $6 million.
David Carr is actually making more. His deal is 2 years, $6.25 million, plus $1.87 million available in bonuses
Member of the legendary David Carr thread, 6 March 2010
No
It’s over 2 years. And my bad—it’s actually $6.5 million over those two years
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_contract.aspx?sport=NFL&id=3119
Member of the legendary David Carr thread, 6 March 2010
If your........
willing too take a Qb at # 1 ….then you best build around him , and that has not happen’d , will he a bust i’m think’n this year will tell us or not . they have done a poor job from the top down over the last 7 year’s , but im encouraged about the way thing’s are look’n ………..
Kewl
…Smith is a bust no matter what he does this year IMO…
I realize I’m going to come off as a huge Smith apologist in this thread (Alexcuses, MM said?) but I think you have to keep in mind the fact that the guy is still only 25 years old. If he has a decent year in 2010 – let’s say 3300 yards, 23 TD, 16 INT, 63% completion – then he may well get re-signed and remain the 49ers starter for the next 4 or 5 years. Considering how much the 49ers offense has improved, personnel-wise, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think that he could put up those kinds of numbers.
A lot of guys come in to the league at 24…the fact that Smith had his first real decent season at that age shouldn’t come as all that big of a surprise.
((prepares to be stoned))
"It came down like a punt, Coach!" - Josh Morgan
by shlecko on Apr 4, 2010 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
He wasn't decent last year
Look at his YPA or DVOA, or any other stat that quantifies his play well. He was near the bottom of the league. Only guys who were backups to begin with, rookies, or just flat out awful were below him really.
by Brendan Scolari on Apr 4, 2010 6:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Toss up between Woods and Druck
Plummer was who I had hoped we would draft, as he may have played well in our system. Both Woods and Druck were WTF choices.
Stokes
I would have to say stokes considering we picked him at number 10, I don’t know about anyone else but I want to see big production out of a receiver picked at number 10.
Speaking of #1 picks
Interesting article in the NYT.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/04/business/04view.html?8dpc
‘…As it turns out, however, the draft does not play the Robin Hood role particularly well. Indeed, I have written a paper, recently revised, on this subject with Cade Massey, a professor at the Yale School of Management. We found that the teams choosing early in the draft generally don’t, in fact, get the players that provide the most value per dollar. Our paper is titled "The Loser’s Curse" because we discovered that the first pick in the draft is, on average, the least valuable in the entire first round…’
With a stable coaching staff, an improved cast of teammates and a healthy shoulder, Smith is officially out of excuses...
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