Why Jimmy Clausen won't be a 49er
by Andrew Davidson on Apr 21, 2010 8:00 PM PDT
in Scouting
Email
PrintFooch's Note: We've had quite the upswing in Jimmy Clausen posts over the last week. I thought this post written up by Andrew was a good way to sort of put a bow on things. So, going forward, any new Clausen-related FanPosts will be moved into either this post, or one of the existing Clausen FanPosts. I'll let you know where I've moved it.
If you've done any mock draft watching over the past few weeks, you'll notice the Jimmy Clausen to the 49ers bandwagon is picking up quite a bit of steam. If you'll recall, the same thing happened last year with Mark Sanchez, current quarterback of the New York Jets. A few weeks prior to the draft, momentum began to build on the Sanchez to San Francisco hype machine. Is this year's Jimmy Clausen saga any different? In other words, does Jimmy Clausen really stand a chance at falling out of the top 10? Let's first take a look at the variable factors that will prevent Clausen from becoming a 49er.
1. That team in Buffalo - The Bills are way behind in the AFC East, way, way behind. The Jets made moves to "stack" the roster, the Dolphins dumped money into a few free agents and New England has three second round draft selections. At some point or another, desperation has to set in. Buffalo is without paddle right now, and while the team has several needs to address, Jimmy Clausen might be the best place to start. After all, you can't really build a team around a franchise player, if you don't have a franchise player. The Bills have their RT figured out, and with the 9th selection in round 2, could figure out their LT situation after landing a franchise QB the team has lacked since Drew Bledsoe (in the twilight of his career no less).
2. The Big Show - Mike Holmgren, the master of the universe in Cleveland's football operations, has already gone on record saying he wished he liked Clausen more. While the relatively straight shooting Holmgren has been just that so far, there's a chance this could be a smoke screen. The signs point to what Holmgren's says being true: The Browns signed Jake Delhomme and acquired Seneca Wallace, and parted ways with Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn, Medicine Woman. Delhomme could the one year stop gap, and Wallace a wild-cat package QB to pair with the dangerous Josh Cribbs. Either way, the popular opinion is that Delhomme isn't much of a starter anymore, and Wallace never was.
3. Kansas City - Now, I'm not saying that the Chiefs are taking Clausen, I'm saying they have the most tradable pick in the top 5 (at number 5). The cost to acquire the fifth overall selection is much less than the 3rd overall selection, and the financial obligations aren't as crippling either. Sure, the fourth pick isn't much different, but the Redskins just got a franchise QB of their own, and most certainly have to address the LT position. Kansas City, on the other hand, is rumored to be shy from selecting Eric Berry at the five spot and might not be sold on any of the remaining prospect being worth top 5 cash. Also, Mark Sanchez was drafted at this spot in 2009, when the Jets swooped in to snipe the USC signal caller.
4. The Roethlisberger Effect - I'll save the ordeal and just keep this brief, simply noting it as a possibility. As seen here on NN, The Steelers are seeking trade suitors in the top 10 of the NFL Draft. If they find a partner, Clausen and the Steelers would be a match.
After the jump, roll with me to see why Jimmy Clausen is a top 10 QB...
There's been some [site decorum] rumors swirling that Jimmy Clausen doesn't have the arm strength to be an NFL QB. The kid has an arm, and while it may not be a Favre-esque cannon, it will get it done. Another popular opinion is that Clausen had great WRs to work with at Notre Dame, and that disguised his mediocrity. Let's not go overboard, the Golden Domes had a good corps in 2009, but Clausen completed 68% of his passes, with a 28:4 TD:INT ratio. With the same receiving corps a year prior, Clausen's numbers weren't nearly as impressive (in other words, he made progress). Let's also not forget that Notre Dame ran a pro-style west coast offense, and Clausen took a bulk of his snaps from under center.
From a technical standpoint, Clausen is sound. He may need to improve his footwork, but his ability to take what the opponents give him is something NFL scouts love. The improvement Clausen showed from 2008 to 2009 was significant. He stopped forcing balls into coverage, and started seeing the entire field. While Golden Tate wasn't a hard target to miss (93 catches, 15 TDs), five other players had 20 or more receptions. Clausen played in all 12 games for the Irish, and Tate was his only offensive weapon to do the same. Add the fact that Notre Dame's rush attack was relatively pedestrian, and Clausen's 300 passing yards per game (again, in a pro style offense) stands out.
Let me bullet out a list to make Clausen's case for the top 10:
- Versed in an NFL offense
- Makes his reads and takes what the defense gives him
- Plays tough (didn't miss a game in 2009 despite a nagging turf toe injury)
- Technically sound (took most of his snaps from under center)
- Accurate and efficient (28 TDs, 4 INTs, 68% comp.)
- Can build chemistry and timing with receiving unit
Now, I'm no Drew K in the area of college football knowledge/scouting, but I do know Jimmy Clausen is a top 10 QB. Would I be surprised if he fell out of the top 10? No, it's happened to QBs before. Would I be upset if the 49ers took Jimmy Clausen with the 13th (or 17th) selection? To answer yes would be putting a lot of faith in Alex Smith as the long term answer beyond 2010. Clausen wouldn't have to come in and start right away, and if the 49ers have a junk season, the top 10 draft selection (in '11) could be well spent in another area of need. If Alex Smith leads the 49ers to a successful campaign, well, having two solid QBs is never a bad dilemma.
To close things out, Jimmy Clausen's Pro Day:
106 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
draft him if he’s available.
Stay calm. I'm a relatively respectable citizen -- a multiple felon, perhaps, but certainly not dangerous
Video
He needs to work on footwork and anticipate the comeback routes quicker. But he looked solid not a top 10 pick. I think he is a victim of hype and won’t live up to the hype if he’s picked that high.
No.
There are a lot of other needs.
I’m thinking that Clausen’s agent is using SF to pump up the interest in his client.
by Bob In Beaverton on Apr 21, 2010 8:21 PM PDT reply actions
Clausen is going to be a really good QB for a longtime,
there are other needs but thats why we have multiple draft picks
Stay calm. I'm a relatively respectable citizen -- a multiple felon, perhaps, but certainly not dangerous
I agree with this. The nice thing about this draft is that the Niners have two first rounders, in a pretty loaded draft. So they can use one on Claussen, who’s going to be a beast, and use the other to plug another hole with a quality talent.
I’m actually really, really high on Claussen. Especially since we wouldn’t have to start him this season. Or next season, even. And he can sit around learning and practicing. Get his kinks out. And if Alex ends up being a badass finally, having two good QBs is never a bad thing!
I still don’t think Claussen falls that far, and the Niners definately shouldn’t trade up for him. But if he makes it to 13, I’d be pretty happy to have Claussen in the fold.
This is where we hold them! This is where we fight! This is where they die! Remember this day, men, for it will be yours for all time.
by ZeroIndulgence on Apr 21, 2010 10:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Can't be too high on him if you're not even spelling his name correctly.
"Mayhap a hidden door lurks nigh. Let us search the environs."
by Fearless Frog on Apr 21, 2010 10:07 PM PDT up reply actions
same as the people who want to draft Mike Iupati but spell it “Lupati”
DREAM DRAFT:
1. Trade #13 and #17 to Browns for #7, 2nd rounder, and 4th rounders
2. Take Eric Berry #7
3. Rodger Saffold in Round 2
4. Dexter McCluster in Round 2
5. BPA!
by MichaelClutchtree on Apr 21, 2010 10:17 PM PDT up reply actions
I'll admit
that one got me for the first week i was hearing new’s on him. But after that it was automatic. I honestly thought everyone had forgotten how to use the shift button when typing someones last name, haha
"God tells me he can get me out of this mess, but he's pretty sure you're fucked."-Braveheart
by Camraman926 on Apr 22, 2010 12:05 AM PDT up reply actions
Clausen
Great for a true Walsh-style WC offense. But he absolutely doesn’t have the arm strength to play in a vertical scheme.
Would be a perfect fit for the personnel and leadership that the Niners have. I don’t see how the Niners pass on him at #13 unless other elite players drop in the draft.
Rays in '08.... Desmond Jennings - the breakout continues.....
+1 on the vertical scheme, disagree with the rest
For how much people talked about his accuracy, he didn’t throw a great deep ball and made his receivers struggle to catch the ball. And this was at his scripted pro-day. I’ll take a pass on spending either of our first round picks on a QB on an arrogant QB who blames his receivers for running the wrong route.
Alex Smith doesn't have a cannon...
And he did well in the vertical passing game whenever Jimmy Raye decided to roll it out.
Kawakami on KNBR just said Clausen was really high on the Niners’ draft board
Wayne Rooney, 1/27/10: Cometh The Hour, Cometh The Man
Green and Gold Till the Club is Sold- LUHG
That guy is really starting to piss me off haha
by Rod Blogojevich on Apr 21, 2010 8:34 PM PDT up reply actions
yeah. this
kawakami sucks so much, he just picks a story someone else has run, and then reports the opposite.
The Ultimate Smoke Screen. Team FO’s will show the most pretentious, obstreperous, most irritating “professional” sports writer of their team a fake big board and tell him to spread the word. Brilliant.
I survived the David Carr Press Conference Thread 3/06/2010
Credit to iaalexeeff
Also surviving member of the underwhelming Jed York Conference Thread 3/22/2010
Eat Shitake!
by Hoopers Judge on Apr 21, 2010 10:47 PM PDT up reply actions
Clausen is the wild card of this years draft
Teams are going to use him to leverage themselves in this years draft.
Personally, I think the 49ers would be stupid to pass on Clausen if he was just sitting there at #13.
I really don’t see any tangible reason why he wouldn’t be a franchise QB.
"Mayhap a hidden door lurks nigh. Let us search the environs."
side note
what about Clausen at 14 to the Seahawks? (or sixth, for that matter)
by Andrew Davidson on Apr 21, 2010 8:48 PM PDT up reply actions
I would gladly take him at 6.
Would be jumping out of my chair in ecstasy if we got him at 14.
"Mayhap a hidden door lurks nigh. Let us search the environs."
by Fearless Frog on Apr 21, 2010 8:55 PM PDT up reply actions
I hope it does
just so we don’t have the temptation to get him. We got other more important needs.
Word is that the Raiders won't trade the #8 straight up for Turdburger...
and the Steelers won’t throw in #18 in the deal.
by 9thevolution on Apr 22, 2010 6:32 AM PDT up reply actions
I'd love to see the cardinals take the division next season because the team takes Clausen
Let’s forget all the BS that Clausen would be ready to step in next year. Carson Palmer ran a pro-style offense for just as long and he wasn’t ready to go. Same thing for Brady Quinn and his patriot fat (site decorum) head coach who made him NFL ready. I won’t disagree he’s a top-10 QB, but that’s only because this QB draft class sucks nuts.
Plus that officially ends the Alex Smith era in San Fran (not that I’m saying that’s a bad thing)….i can’t wait to see Smith look over his shoulder knowing he’s on the out and throw pick after pick.
If the team really wants a QB, wait a year and see how Jake Locker looks compared to Clausen or even better wait 2 years and see how Luck, Barkley, Pryor and the rest of the young starting college QB’s look compared to Clausen.
agree with you
just because alex didn’t take snaps under center and has struggled doesn’t mean that taking snaps under center is the beginning, middle, and end of what makes a good QB.
Years later...
Indeed…
Nick and//or Nate Montana anyone?
Poor reasoning.
Putting off QB, the most important position, year after year is asking for trouble. What if Locker doesn’t build on his success from last season? What if Andrew Luck and Ryan Mallet don’t take advantage of bad defenses anymore? What if Terrelle Pryor continues to suck?
What if all are great but the 49ers aren’t in position to draft any of them because they improved? Drafting at, say, 16 again won’t likely be in a position to draft the #1 or even #3 best QB in the draft.
"Mayhap a hidden door lurks nigh. Let us search the environs."
by Fearless Frog on Apr 21, 2010 10:11 PM PDT up reply actions
if we’ve improved we don’t need a QB.
by hellaninersfan on Apr 21, 2010 11:46 PM PDT up reply actions
QB wins you Super Bowls now...
not just a stacked defense. Passing on QB hoping to get a better one in later years is a recipe for disaster. Everyone is left with a bad taste in their mouth because Smith never panned out, but that doesn’t mean you should pass on a potential franchise QB just because you think someone next year is going to be better.
by 9thevolution on Apr 22, 2010 6:36 AM PDT up reply actions
No, you could theoretically draft at 17 again after going 8-8
and still desperately need a QB.
"Mayhap a hidden door lurks nigh. Let us search the environs."
by Fearless Frog on Apr 22, 2010 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions
Let me see if I understand this correctly...
2009: Wait til next season and get Jevan Snead.
2010: Wait til next season and get Jake Locker.
2011: Wait til next season and get Matt Barkley.
…
2015: Wait til next season and get Nick Montana.
I’ll update this in 2015.
I mean listen, we're sitting here talking about practice, not a game, not a game, but we're talking about practice.
by Typecast on Apr 22, 2010 3:50 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I thought Montana was a Freshman this year?
so he would be eligible in the 2013 draft, right?
"If I were to walk down a dark alley in a bad part of town, I'd want Ray Brown with me. And if I were to have a nice dinner at a fine restaurant, I'd want Ray Brown with me." The Late Great McKittrick
Even better!
"I just struck out looking three times, but in any other ballpark those would have been home runs." - Aubrey Huff
by howtheyscored on Apr 22, 2010 8:16 AM PDT up reply actions
that video made me want golden tate even more
…too bad we don’t really need him
I Think...
I heard (searched NN too), that Crabtree was not going to fall to the Niners…
same thing different year, no one can predict the future… you mention teams that need him before the Niners, well true it is, great analysis, but yet is not science since it has unforeseeable results… Clausen could fall past us too.
I hear you
I think the Mark Sanchez situation is a little more comparable than Crabtree, but I agree, not many people felt Crabtree would fall to the Niners (where as a few weeks before the draft, Sanchez was the guy that would).
by Andrew Davidson on Apr 21, 2010 9:45 PM PDT up reply actions
I am, meh, towards Clausen personally (and in votes on NN) I still have animosity towards Smith over Rogers, Rogers having the dream of playing for the Niners and we did not grab that devotion.
I guess, like I have always claimed… I am a Homer and will support the team in their choices (here in the draft and always), even though if I had the decision I would probably make different choices… which begs to ask why am I not in charge currently, I think we know the answer to that? Shy at least 900 million to buy the team.
Hellz yeah
about the Rogers thing. I couldn’t believe they took a qb from the spread offense of Utah over one coached by Tedford at Cal. Everyone knows Tedford is a good qb coach. If only he could recruit some more good ones…
by crumpedup15 on Apr 21, 2010 10:48 PM PDT up reply actions
At the time, Tedford had a reputation for producing NFL busts, which was one of the leading reasons that Rodgers saw his stock drop so far. I think Harrington and Carr were the two biggest Tedford QBs before Rodgers.
"I just struck out looking three times, but in any other ballpark those would have been home runs." - Aubrey Huff
by howtheyscored on Apr 21, 2010 11:01 PM PDT up reply actions
akili smith
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Apr 21, 2010 11:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Kyle Boller
Sure he wasn’t a top 5 pick, but he was hyped. Never understood why being able to throw it deep from being on his knees would be a desirable trait in a QB.
I think that Boller’s tools combined with his apparent ability to learn pro-style schemes very quickly (he went from Holmoe suckage to absolutely thriving in Tedford’s pro-style system in just one year) made him an intriguing, if not perfect, prospect.
"I just struck out looking three times, but in any other ballpark those would have been home runs." - Aubrey Huff
by howtheyscored on Apr 22, 2010 8:55 AM PDT up reply actions
My exact response when the Jets took Sanchez was “Man, teams really go nuts for even crappy quarterbacks.”
"I just struck out looking three times, but in any other ballpark those would have been home runs." - Aubrey Huff
by howtheyscored on Apr 21, 2010 10:39 PM PDT up reply actions
re:
Now, I’m no Drew K in the area of college football knowledge/scouting, but I do know Jimmy Clausen is a top 10 QB. Would I be surprised if he fell out of the top 10? No, it’s happened to QBs before. Would I be upset if the 49ers took Jimmy Clausen with the 13th (or 17th) selection? To answer yes would be putting a lot of faith in Alex Smith as the long term answer beyond 2010. Clausen wouldn’t have to come in and start right away, and if the 49ers have a junk season, the top 10 draft selection (in ’11) could be well spent in another area of need. If Alex Smith leads the 49ers to a successful campaign, well, having two solid QBs is never a bad dilemma.
This is a very smart response, and I say that in all seriousness. I wish all NN contributors would consider what you said Andrew, and that doesn’t necessarily mean to draft Clausen, but I don’t think completely eliminating him from consideration is the right answer either.
by Brendan Scolari on Apr 21, 2010 10:00 PM PDT reply actions
I’ve been tooting this train’s horn for quite some time now.
"I just struck out looking three times, but in any other ballpark those would have been home runs." - Aubrey Huff
by howtheyscored on Apr 21, 2010 10:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Me too
At least if you’re talking about that philosophy on QB’s.
by Brendan Scolari on Apr 21, 2010 11:13 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm with Holmgren
I wish I liked him more. I actually think he’ll fall to the Vikings unless someone makes a deal and moves up to get him. Maybe around 20.
Don't trust this guy. He lies.
Holmgren backed off on those comments.
"Mayhap a hidden door lurks nigh. Let us search the environs."
by Fearless Frog on Apr 21, 2010 10:12 PM PDT up reply actions
Maybe he backed off in the press
But I think that’s still how he feels.
Don't trust this guy. He lies.
I can’t possibly see him falling to the Vikings. He won’t get past the Seahawks at 14 if he even falls that far. I’ll guarantee right now that he goes in the top 15. And I’ll gladly look like a fool if it doesn’t happen.
"I just struck out looking three times, but in any other ballpark those would have been home runs." - Aubrey Huff
by howtheyscored on Apr 21, 2010 10:41 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't think he'll fall to the Vikings either
But I think he will fall out of the top 10, and once he does the only way he won’t fall all the way to the Vikings is if someone makes a trade to move up and get him. In other words, if no team moves up to get him, he’ll fall to the Vikings. But I do think a team will trade up before he gets there.
Don't trust this guy. He lies.
Browns, Raiders, Bills, Jags, Broncos could all take him in before us. And if the Browns and Rams trade, the Rams will undoubtedly take him at 7 if he is there. I have a strange feeling that Homgren wants to move up to get Bradford. They have a boat load of picks and the Rams want more. It could also be why we haven’t seen a pre-draft signing of the very first pick yet.
All those teams might take him
But I don’t think they will. Holmgren has never drafted a QB in the first round and I don’t think he’ll start now. I think Berrry or Haden are the two most likely picks and he’ll draft a QB like McCoy in the 2nd round. Raiders and Bills probably both go OT, Jags take Spiller, Morgan, or posibly McClain, and Denver goes with Bryant, McClain, or maybe an interior lineman. Although, if they want an interior lineman like Iupati or Pouncey, they’ll probably tade down first.
Don't trust this guy. He lies.
The whole “Holmgren has never drafted a QB in the first round” thing is kind of weird to me. It’s not like he’s ever really needed to….
I mean, outside of the Brett Favre and Matt Hasselbeck heydays, he’s only been in the position where it was even a viable option to go QB in the first round two or three times.
"I just struck out looking three times, but in any other ballpark those would have been home runs." - Aubrey Huff
by howtheyscored on Apr 22, 2010 8:19 AM PDT up reply actions
True
But Favre and Hasselbeck weren’t drafted in the first round either, although Favre came close being the 33rd overall pick. So he’s been able to have success with QB’s chosen out of the 1st round and I think he feels he can do it again. I’m sticking with my theory that Holmgren will draft a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round.
Don't trust this guy. He lies.
I think that makes sense too
unless bradford lands in his lap. He won’t be drafting Clausen
Member of the legendary David Carr thread, 6 March 2010
i doubt he goes to the hawks after the charlie whitehurst deal
DREAM DRAFT:
1. Trade #13 and #17 to Browns for #7, 2nd rounder, and 4th rounders
2. Take Eric Berry #7
3. Rodger Saffold in Round 2
4. Dexter McCluster in Round 2
5. BPA!
by MichaelClutchtree on Apr 21, 2010 10:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah
It’s almost a lock they go with a T they have their choice of the best ones.
by crumpedup15 on Apr 21, 2010 10:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Not really.
I mean, it wouldn’t surprise me if Seattle drafted a tackle, but we’re talking about Alex Gibbs as OL coach here. He’s made his legendary reputation in the NFL polishing turds into something mildly shiny in regards to the offensive line.
"Mayhap a hidden door lurks nigh. Let us search the environs."
by Fearless Frog on Apr 21, 2010 11:48 PM PDT up reply actions
Carroll pretty much has the final word on everything.
He’s like Andy Reid in that regard.
Not sure if they’re taking Jimmy Clausen, though. On one hand, maybe the trade for Charlie Whitehurst was just in anticipation that they wouldn’t be able to draft either of the top 2 QBs, and now that McNabb is a Redskin, they can draft Clausen. On the other, maybe they do really think Whitehurst could take over as a starter and want to see what he can accomplish once Matt Hasselbeck inevitably gets injured again.
John Morgan at Field Gulls made a pretty good post awhile back talking about how Pete Carroll desperately tried recruiting Clausen, a local product, to USC, and still might covet him. If so, I wouldn’t be surprise this hush hush on Clausen from the Seahawks is so that they ensure he falls to 6 and draft him.
"Mayhap a hidden door lurks nigh. Let us search the environs."
by Fearless Frog on Apr 21, 2010 10:24 PM PDT up reply actions
No prob
"Mayhap a hidden door lurks nigh. Let us search the environs."
by Fearless Frog on Apr 21, 2010 10:42 PM PDT up reply actions
Tim Tebow at 14!
or trade the 6th overall to the Steelers for Ben Roethlisberger.
I bet either of those options would have you throwing things at the tv.
Member of the legendary David Carr thread, 6 March 2010
You know, as much as I think Rapistberger is a gigantic asswipe...
…I’ve got to admit he’s a pretty legit QB. Not sure if I’d trade 6th overall for him but the point is moot because there’s no way the Seahawks of all teams would trade for him even if they got over his character concerns/off-field issues/suspension risk, simply because he was quarterbacking the Steelers in Super Bowl XL.
And speaking of Tebow, I can’t wait till some team inevitably reaches for him due to sentimental value and watches as he busts. I wouldn’t be surprise if Pittsburgh drafted him in the first due to the Rooney’s obsession with the character of their franchise, especially if these rumors that Ben Roethlisberger has already been traded to the Raiders for the 8th overall pick, pending approval by the NFL, are true.
"Mayhap a hidden door lurks nigh. Let us search the environs."
by Fearless Frog on Apr 21, 2010 10:45 PM PDT up reply actions
I haven't heard that the deal is done
just that they’re in talks. Where did you pick up that little gem?
Member of the legendary David Carr thread, 6 March 2010
The nefarious source of pseudo-news known as Twitter.
Here, here, and scroll down 12 tweets here.
"Mayhap a hidden door lurks nigh. Let us search the environs."
by Fearless Frog on Apr 21, 2010 11:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Thanks for the new sources
I follow LaCanfora and Schefter on twitter but they’ve been silent on this so far.
Member of the legendary David Carr thread, 6 March 2010
I don't even use Twitter.
Saw these on an NFL forum I go to.
"Mayhap a hidden door lurks nigh. Let us search the environs."
by Fearless Frog on Apr 21, 2010 11:36 PM PDT up reply actions
So they're thinking
swap of first round picks and Roethlisberger goes to the Raiders and Nnamdi Asomugha to the Steelers.
That makes a ton of sense to me. Steelers address a big position of need with a top CB, Raiders address a big position of need with Roethlisberger. Raiders end up paying more, but you expect that with a QB.
Roethlisberger
2010—$8.05 million
2011—2014 $11.6 million
2015—$12.1 million
Asomugha
2010—$755,000 base. $8 million roster bonus 3/5, $7.83 million roster bonus 3/19. Total of $16.55 million
2011—$2.105 million
2012—$3.445 million
2013—$4.85 million
2014—$6.15
Asomugha—$33.1 million over the next 5 years
Roethlisberger—$54.45 million over the next 5 years.
Question I have is this—if the trade goes like this, do the Steelers pick up the roster bonus money that was due Asomugha or are the Raiders stuck?
Member of the legendary David Carr thread, 6 March 2010
I don't see why the Raiders need to trade their 8th overall pick, let alone Asomugha too.
In the court of public opinion, Ben Roethlisberger is a rapist. Nobody besides Oakland will tolerate a rapist as the face of their franchise. Theoretically, the Raiders have all the leverage here if the Steelers are seriously considering dealing him due to the irreparable harm to the image of their franchise he’s caused.
"Mayhap a hidden door lurks nigh. Let us search the environs."
by Fearless Frog on Apr 21, 2010 11:38 PM PDT up reply actions
It's the Raiders
Give your best player and swap ten places in a 1st round pick for a guy suspended for 6 games with no market is right up their alley.
I don't know that the Steelers were determined to move Ben
I think they were putting out feelers just to see what they could get for him. and the Raiders bit.
Member of the legendary David Carr thread, 6 March 2010
Plus if the Steelers are able to assume the roster bonus money
due Asomugha this year that saves the Raider organization $16 million in up front costs
Member of the legendary David Carr thread, 6 March 2010
I like Jake Locker as much as anybody, but
the Seahawks would idiotic to bank on drafting him next season. Assuming he’s the best QB in next year’s draft, what if the Seahawks aren’t drafting high enough to pick him? We were ghastly last year and still ended up with the 6th overall pick, which wouldn’t be enough to draft the alleged best QB in this draft.
So as much as I’m a Husky fan and would love to see Jake Locker remain in the Northwest, I think biting the bullet and drafting Jimmy Clausen is the best course of action for Seattle.
"Mayhap a hidden door lurks nigh. Let us search the environs."
by Fearless Frog on Apr 21, 2010 10:48 PM PDT up reply actions
Me too
There’s no way to look that far ahead in the draft.
by Brendan Scolari on Apr 21, 2010 11:15 PM PDT up reply actions
I have an idea..
Now this may not even be worth thinking but we all know the Steelers are tired of Ben and they’d probably love to pick up Clausen.
If he is still available at pick 13 would it even be logical for the Steelers to trade up to 13 to pick Clausen? I don’t know, because there is the possibility that he can make it to the Steelers’ pick at 18 or the Seahawks may swoop him up at 14.
So this leads me to my wacky idea.
If the top 4 tackles are gone by our 13th pick and Clausen is available than what if we trade positions with the Steelers and something extra.. the trade would look like this —
Steelers trade up to 13th giving the 49ers their spot at 18th along with their 52nd pick or 82nd pick..
Nah
If they gonna trade up to get Clausen they want to move Big Ben. Why keep him when you want to draft a qb that high?
by crumpedup15 on Apr 21, 2010 10:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah then Pitt would have Roethlisberger, Dixon, Leftwich, Batch and Clausen. They won’t pick a QB unless they for sure move Ben
by Rod Blogojevich on Apr 21, 2010 11:19 PM PDT up reply actions
I'd much rather take Clausen at #13 then Spiller.
We have a Perennial Bowler at RB, and people are all screaming for Spiller.
We have nothing but hopes and dreams at QB, and there seems to be more people against Clausen, then for him.
Clausen is not all hype. He played on an inferior team and did nothing but get better each week. This kid is going to be a Top-10 QB in the NFL.
Nope
Us drafting clausen means we abandon everything we’ve worked for in the past yr and a half. We dumped Shaun Hill for a reason. Alex Smith is our guy!! Had Hill stayed, it would have been the end of the Smith era. We would have drafted a Qb this year to ride the bench long enough till Shaun hills un-abled body gave out and we would have rolled along with “the new guy”. We wouldn’t have re-signed Smith at the end of the year, and we would all be watching our team not make the playoffs and making a top 10 pick in the 2011 draft.
Stop listening to Mcshay and Kiper. Clausen will not be a 49er.
by LADubbz45 on Apr 22, 2010 12:40 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
"Alex Smith is our guy" but not really.
I believe that if Clausen is the best prospect on the 49ers board when its their turn to pick, they should take him. I’m all for Smith going out and having a breakout 2010 season, but I would also like to have a QB that can step in just in case he doesn’t. Hill is a good guy but he just couldn’t make the plays down the field consistently. Carr isn’t a long-term solution either. I do remember SD going after Manning/Rivers the season before Brees blew up. Better to be prepared than potentially waste the 2011 season with another QB issue. Until he’s franchise/extended, Alex Smith “is our guy” for only the 2010 season.
I mean listen, we're sitting here talking about practice, not a game, not a game, but we're talking about practice.
This is absolutely ridiculous
Hill was done last year because he couldn’t do the job. He had absolutely no value to the Niners, as evidenced by the 7TH ROUND PICK that we got in the trade. Smith would’ve been starting this year regardless of whether or not we retained Hill. And the team improved with Smith, so there’s no way that Hill would’ve even had a chance this year.
by 9thevolution on Apr 22, 2010 7:05 AM PDT up reply actions
No clausen ......
this team has a real good chance to move forward with these two top pick’s … either stay’n put or trading back .. we need atleast two possible starter’s for next year .. not clausen ..!!
Kewl
Officially on Team No Clausen
Reasons:
1) Passing is not the focus of this team:
-Remember how the bloggers got all worried when the Niners began being pass happy because they were afraid that Gore would be disgruntled? Focus on this team is defense, running, and then some passing.
2) QB is not a top need on this team
-Despite all the Smith haters, I still believe that Smith is an above-average QB. He proved himself somewhat last year and deserves an opportunity to show more this year. Carr is a decent back-up and Davis has potential.
3) Clausen is not a top-ten talent (despite the post)
I will give you some stat lines from their senior year and tell me which QB you would draft
QB No. 1: 61.9% completion rate, 3,426 yards, 37 TD, 7 Ints
QB No. 2: 68.0% completion rate, 3,722 yards, 28 TD 4 Ints
QB No. 1 is Brady Quinn and QB No. 2 is Clausen…I would argue that the two are about even in stats (Clausen is a little better) but Quinn had a much inferior receiving corp. (Quinn had Jeff Samardzija and Rhema McKnight while Clausen had Golden Tate and Michael Floyd)
QB #2 seems perfect for the "system" that you believe we have.
Like has been said various times, why is it a bad thing to have a backup plan at QB?
by 9thevolution on Apr 22, 2010 11:05 AM PDT up reply actions
Reason #1 is automatically invalid.
You want to win in the NFL, you get to passing. Defense/running game is a practically worthless strategy now.
"Mayhap a hidden door lurks nigh. Let us search the environs."
by Fearless Frog on Apr 22, 2010 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions
The Jets
is about defense and running the ball. Sanchez is average at this time.
Also, I am not saying that is what Niners should be to win…it is what they are at this time. Running and defense.
Well, that’s why he said “practically.” The Jets from last year, the Steelers during Ben’s first two seasons, and the Ravens of yore are really the only examples of teams in recent years being able to do this with any degree of success. It’s much more effective in a broader sense to build up your passing game if you want to enjoy success in the league today.
"I just struck out looking three times, but in any other ballpark those would have been home runs." - Aubrey Huff
by howtheyscored on Apr 22, 2010 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions
can someone remind me of the stats
that Florida Danny threw out last year about what makes a good QB prospect. It was something like >60% completion % and a minimum of 32 starts – something along those lines???
If you don't like Brandon Medders you're not a true fan.
(1) Lewin found that there are only two college QB statistics that reliably, and independent of all others, predict NFL QB performance: completion percentage and games started. Comletion percentage is obvious: QBs kind of have to be able to hit their target. In (2) below, I explain why games started is also important. Generally, the magic numbers are a 60% completion percentage and 37 games started in college. As Football Outsiders points out, from 1996-2005, the worst QB (in terms of NFL performance) drafted in the first 2 rounds who achieved these standards in college was Eli Manning, and uh, he just won a Super Bowl.
(2) The LCF only applies to QBs drafted in the first two rounds because, as Lewin showed, pro scouts are actually nostradamus-like at separating the wheat from the chaff when given enough game film. The guys who go after the first 2 rounds are generally there for good reason (Tom Brady excluded). In contrast, when a team badly swings and misses on a high QB pick, it’s almost always because there isn’t enough relevant game film (aka not enough games started), which leads the team to focus instead on unbelievably unreliable predictors like height, arm strength, Wonderlic score, and performance at the combine/pro day.
http://www.ninersnation.com/2008/10/28/648563/a-statistical-look-at-draf
The actual equation for LCF that I arrived at in my replication study was: NFL DYAR/G = -232.16 + (2.75 x college GS) + (250.31 x college COMP%).1 Plug in some QB numbers and try it for yourself if you wish.
However….
When you run an MLR analysis, the results tell you a lot more than the multipliers you need to get your prediction. The most important of these supplementary results is called explained variance, which, in the context of LCF, tells us how much of the DYAR/G variation between top-2-round QBs is explained by their college GS and COMP% stats. In my replication of Lewin’s analysis, that explained variance value was 56.2%. In other words, over 40% of the DYAR/G variation between QBs was not explained by GS and COMP%. While 56.2% isn’t shabby in MLR, especially given the small sample size (n = 35), there’s still a veritable sh*t-ton of variation for which LCF has no answer.
http://www.ninersnation.com/2009/4/24/851741/a-statistical-look-at-drafting-qbs
"I just struck out looking three times, but in any other ballpark those would have been home runs." - Aubrey Huff
by howtheyscored on Apr 22, 2010 9:04 AM PDT up reply actions
Lewin Career Forecast
It was this post.
The magic numbers are generally 60% and 37 starts. In looking at Clausen, his career completion percentage is 62% and it looks like he started around 34 or 35 games.
by David Fucillo on Apr 22, 2010 9:04 AM PDT up reply actions
ok so
McCoy fits the bill this year, Bradford doesn’t (not enough starts), Clausen doesn’t (not enough starts), Tebow does
If you don't like Brandon Medders you're not a true fan.
true
But as the post points out (see howtheyscored’s comment above), there is a lot of statistical variation to consider.
by David Fucillo on Apr 22, 2010 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions
of course
I was just curious to see who fits the bill in the simplest analysis. I think if I have to take one of those guys I’d go with McCoy.
If you don't like Brandon Medders you're not a true fan.
I wonder how Danny’s LCF solution method would have graded out the choices for this year.
"I just struck out looking three times, but in any other ballpark those would have been home runs." - Aubrey Huff
by howtheyscored on Apr 22, 2010 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Shutdown Corner - NFL - Yahoo! Sports
- Roger Goodell wants Wi-Fi in every stadium
- Plaxico Burress wants to workout for the Dolphins; Dolphins don’t want Plaxico Burress
- NFLPA files collusion claim against NFL, claiming salary cap arrangement in uncapped year
- Donald Driver compared winning ‘Dancing With The Stars’ to winning Super Bowl
- Report: Most NFL players would have no problem with an openly gay teammate
