FanPost

Stats to support my Alex Smith Theory..and comparison to P. Manning :)


I know a lot of the people on this board (and for the most part rightly so) lend a lot of credence to statistics...  Since the discussion in my other post (Why Alex Smith will Succeed and Thrive 2010 Forward) was a bit of a tat-for-tat, I figured I would get some empirical evidence to support my thoughts.  I'm a businessman by trade and I focus a lot of my energy on recruitment/selection, training, development and retention...so I know a little bit about which I speak...  maybe not in the NFL context, but selecting and developing talent is what it is...anyway...

I went back to compare the stats and here's what I found...  If you take out 2005 (rookie year where he only played 9 games with 7 starts and was a complete abomination) and 2008 (when he didn't take a single snap due to the 2007 injury) and 2007 (where he only played 7 games before getting hurt)...you get 1 full season of play...2006.

FYI: the only number that went down was his yards per completion...

After the jump are the stats I was playing with, ALL of which were improvements (some were HUGE improvements).  And just for giggles, I am throwing in a comparison with Peyton Manning's same stats for 2009...  :)

Enjoy the numbers... they speak for themselves I believe, but here's a FAST summary:

  1. Smith's sacks/game went down by 9% in 2009 (from 2.2/g to 2/g) and his QB rating went up by 9%
  2. His Yards/Game went up over 18% and his Yards/Start went up by almost 30%
  3. His TD/INT rate went from 1:1 to 1.5:1. - an improvement of 50%  Manning's is 2:1


Pete


Taking a look at the 2006 stats vs. his 11 games (10 starts) in 2009:

Completion percentage:
2006 - 58.1%
2009 - 60.5%
Net gain: 2.3% or a 4% overall improvement

Manning 2009 - 68.8% (the best year of his career.  He averages 64.8%)

Yards per completion:
2006 - 11.2
2009 - 10.4
Net loss: 0.8yds/comp or a 7% dip

Manning 2009 - 11.5 (averages 11.8 over his career)

 


Yards per Game:
2006 - 181
2009 - 214
Net gain: 33 yds/game - an 18.2% improvement

 

Manning 2009 - 281 (averages 261 over his career)

Yards per START (vs. any game he played:
2006 - 181
2009 - 235
Net gain: 54 yds/game - a 29.8% improvement

 

Manning 2009 - 281 (averages 261 over his career)


TD/INT Ratio:
2006 - 1:1 (16 each)
2009 - 1.5:1 (18/12)
Net gain: 50% better

Manning 2009 - 2.1 : 1 (averages 2:1 over career), only 33% better than Smith's (though significant)

 



Sacks/game:
2006 - 2.2
2009 - 2
Net gain: .2 less sacks per game - 9% improvement

Manning 2009 - 0.6 sacks per game (averages 1.1/game over career)

 

QB rating:
2006 - 74.8
2009 - 81.5
Net gain: 6.7 points - a 9% improvement over his prior best pro season (correlation to the sack %?  I dunno...)

Manning 2009 - 99.9 (averages 95.2 over his career, but down from a peak of 121.1 in 2004)

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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