I know a lot of the people on this board (and for the most part rightly so) lend a lot of credence to statistics... Since the discussion in my other post (Why Alex Smith will Succeed and Thrive 2010 Forward) was a bit of a tat-for-tat, I figured I would get some empirical evidence to support my thoughts. I'm a businessman by trade and I focus a lot of my energy on recruitment/selection, training, development and retention...so I know a little bit about which I speak... maybe not in the NFL context, but selecting and developing talent is what it is...anyway...
I went back to compare the stats and here's what I found... If you take out 2005 (rookie year where he only played 9 games with 7 starts and was a complete abomination) and 2008 (when he didn't take a single snap due to the 2007 injury) and 2007 (where he only played 7 games before getting hurt)...you get 1 full season of play...2006.
FYI: the only number that went down was his yards per completion...
After the jump are the stats I was playing with, ALL of which were improvements (some were HUGE improvements). And just for giggles, I am throwing in a comparison with Peyton Manning's same stats for 2009... :)
Enjoy the numbers... they speak for themselves I believe, but here's a FAST summary:
- Smith's sacks/game went down by 9% in 2009 (from 2.2/g to 2/g) and his QB rating went up by 9%
- His Yards/Game went up over 18% and his Yards/Start went up by almost 30%
- His TD/INT rate went from 1:1 to 1.5:1. - an improvement of 50% Manning's is 2:1
Pete
Taking a look at the 2006 stats vs. his 11 games (10 starts) in 2009:
Completion percentage:
2006 - 58.1%
2009 - 60.5%
Net gain: 2.3% or a 4% overall improvement
Manning 2009 - 68.8% (the best year of his career. He averages 64.8%)
Yards per completion:
2006 - 11.2
2009 - 10.4
Net loss: 0.8yds/comp or a 7% dip
Manning 2009 - 11.5 (averages 11.8 over his career)
Yards per Game:
2006 - 181
2009 - 214
Net gain: 33 yds/game - an 18.2% improvement
Manning 2009 - 281 (averages 261 over his career)
Yards per START (vs. any game he played:
2006 - 181
2009 - 235
Net gain: 54 yds/game - a 29.8% improvement
Manning 2009 - 281 (averages 261 over his career)
TD/INT Ratio:
2006 - 1:1 (16 each)
2009 - 1.5:1 (18/12)
Net gain: 50% better
Manning 2009 - 2.1 : 1 (averages 2:1 over career), only 33% better than Smith's (though significant)
Sacks/game:
2006 - 2.2
2009 - 2
Net gain: .2 less sacks per game - 9% improvement
Manning 2009 - 0.6 sacks per game (averages 1.1/game over career)
QB rating:
2006 - 74.8
2009 - 81.5
Net gain: 6.7 points - a 9% improvement over his prior best pro season (correlation to the sack %? I dunno...)
Manning 2009 - 99.9 (averages 95.2 over his career, but down from a peak of 121.1 in 2004)


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