49ers Fantasy Football 2010: Frank Gore 6th Overall?
by Andrew Davidson on May 14, 2010 1:00 PM PDT
in Fantasy Football
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PrintSports media conglomerate ESPN recently released its 2010 fantasy football rankings, and everyone's favourite San Francisco 49ers running back, Frank Gore, makes an extremely impressive appearance (ranked 6th overall). While it's encouraging to see Gore get this kind of dap, it's a tad surprising that the "engine that can" is ranked ahead of players like Drew Brees (ranked 8th) and Aaron Rodgers (ranked 14th). Both Brees and Rodgers were fantasy monsters in 2009, but QBs are generally overlooked as top 6 fantasy selections. While RBs are quickest to fly off draft boards, the position isn't necessarily the most productive. However, from an overall fantasy team compilation perspective, a stud RB is better at six, than a stud QB.
There is much value having a solid RB corps, especially in leagues that award points per reception (PPR). If you're staring down the barrell of Frank Gore vs. Drew Brees with the sixth overall selection, it would be stupid to ignore the fact that QBs can carry fantasy rosters just as easily as RBs (but it would be stupid to take Brees). According to the website fantasyfootballchallenge.com, Drew Brees averaged 22.43 fantasy points per contest, while Frank the Tank averaged 15.02 fppg (good for 4th in the RB position). Are you willing to give up 7 fantasy points per week to take a low tier one RB, or would you rather spend that selection and hope to land a solid RB in round 2?
Frankly, taking a RB over Brees isn't a bad decision (again, especially in a PPR league). Why? In 2009, there were 22 QBs that averaged more fantasy points per game than Frank Gore (17 of those QBs averaged more fppg than all RBs but Chris Johnson; 5 of them were better than Every Coach's Dream). Also keep in mind most fantasy football rosters require teams to start 2 RBs, and just one QB. Grabbing one stud to shore up the RB1 slot in round one is never unwise; you'll still have a shot at your QB1 later. Guys like Kyle Orton, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, David Garrard and even Matthew Stafford all averaged more fppg than Gore. If you're in a league that sees guys like this go before Frank Gore, congratulations in advance on winning the league championship. Now I know Brees, Rodgers and guys like Peyton Manning all could get drafted early, but it's much easier to scramble and grab a QB later than it is. With the tendency of RBs simply disappearing early and often in fantasy drafts, it makes sense to prioritize that need regardless of fppg production numbers. The bottom line is, take Frank Gore ahead of the top 3 fantasy QBs because you'll be able to get a top 10 QB in rounds 2-5. It's a daunting task to land a top 10 RB in round 2 alone (more so if you are indeed picking sixth).
After the jump, I switch gears to the NFC West, and where Gore stacks up in the division...
Mike Sando's article "Gore over Jackson? Breaston over Housh?" focuses on the NFC west (based on ESPN rankings), and Gore is ranked as the best fantasy player. St. Louis' Steven Jackson is ranked right after Gore, but the drop off is considerable at RB from there. Beanie Wells is ranked 4th (Larry Fitzgerald 3rd) while LenDale White and Tim Hightower are 7th and 10th. Wells averaged 8.03 fppg in 2009, White wasn't much use behing Johnson with the Titans and Hightower actually out pointed Wells, averaging 8.09 per contest. 2010 could see an increase in both Wells' and White's numbers, but it's not guaranteed. Wells has a better chance at producing a lot of fantasy points, because Arizona's backfield isn't crowded like Seattle's. Neither Wells nor White should be more than a rotational RB2 at best. Steven Jackson and Frank Gore, however, are solid options as RB1 every week.
Taking a guy like Drew Brees sixth overall, might force your hand into having to rely on a guy like Wells to be your weekly RB2, and that wouldn't be a good thing (not with Matt Leinart in town). Ditto for White with Charile Whitehurst possibly unseating Matt Hasselbeck as the Seahawks signal caller (and the 4 RBs on Seattle's roster). Would you really be comfortable relying on either player to produce consistent numbers on a weekly basis? I wouldn't. If you are on the back side of your league's draft (selecting 8th or later), you might not have a choice but to take Brees (and that's fine). However, it would be wise to use a mid (5-7) first rounder on a solid RB. Only a handful averaged over 15 fppg in 2009, while an absolute bread basket of QBs met reasonable expectations. Having one of those stud RBs that can get you 15 points per week is just something you shouldn't pass on.
Let's say you get Gore (15 fppg), Jamaal Charles (11 fppg) and Donovan McNabb (19 fppg) with your first three fantasy draft picks; that's 45 fantasy points a week. Assuming you are drafting sixth, and you decide to go with Brees (22 fppg), Charles (11) and you have to settle for a Knowshon Moreno (9 fppg) or Fred Jackson (9 fppg); that's only 42 fantasy points. Does a three-point difference mean that much? Quite possibly, especially if you do draft Brees and Charles. With that scenario, you'd be tempted to go WR in Round 3 (which would then lead to a Wells/White RB2 situation), a position that typically produces less than RB. With Gore, Charles and McNabb, a healthy WR corps could easily be assembled in Rounds 4 and 5. At the end of the day, the wise choice is going RB in picks 1-7, because there's really no point grabbing the best player at a stocked position that high.
What are your thoughts? Would you take a QB higher than 8th in a fantasy draft?
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NEVER take a QB in round 1
Last year I got Aaron Rodgers in round 3 and he outperformed Brees (who was taken in the 1st).
The guy that picked up Brees ended up with Lendale White and Pierre Thomas as his RBs.
It’s simple: There are only a few good RBs and MANY good QBs. (since we can also play QBs based only on matchups)
This year I’m probably going to grab Schaub, Romo, or Rivers in the 3rd and Flacco later on.
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
I had Schaub last year
and ran out of steam in the finals of an annual PPR-league I play in with my brother. I took Schaub in the 9th round, and wouldn’t dream of that happening ever again in a fantasy draft. That said, a ninth round QB could be an absolute steal.
I don’t think anyone should ever draft a QB before the 8th overall selection. Sometimes it does pay off to grab a QB with the 8th-13th pick. (the first pick of round 2 is essentially another first round pick). The year Peyton Manning threw for 49 TDs, I drafted him in the first round (2004). I finished sixth, because my team fizzled out in the playoffs. Corey Dillon was my team’s RB, and that was the year he ran for 1600+ yards and 12 TDs. I aslo had Torry Holt (231 FP that year) and Andre Johnson (161 FP that year) as my WRs. It really hurt that I was beat out by the #8 seed in the first round of the playoffs, by 1 Point. Don’t ever tell me 1 PT won’t make a difference on draft day. It hurts, and I haven’t drafted a QB in round one since.
by Andrew Davidson on May 14, 2010 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Yup I drafted Fitzgerald in rd 1
Then took Schaub in 2 then took Slaton in 3 and Farve in the 4th, (we had a designated Offensive Player spot), and Owen Daniels in the 5th.
My RB slot was pretty weak unless Percy Harvin or Reggie Bush came through with catches and TDs but I got so many points week in and week out from my Houston offense i put up huge numbers.
Good QBs, (or qbs coming off a down year going to a better team like Farve did), can be had later than one of the elite RBs.
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on May 14, 2010 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Really?
Why in the world did you draft Schaub in round 2?
He went 7th-9th in most drafts because of his injury history.
Could have an elite RB with that pick.
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on May 15, 2010 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions
you would drew
how many times have you won in our league… the next time you go talking ffb, come talk to the old three time champ… you chump.
For all you sunny boys down there in rainbow town, drew is a good old canadian boy up here and a closet lions fan. Drew, come to the good side.
Well, yeah
Petyon when he threw 49 TDs or Brady when he threw 50 are worth a 1st round pick, but that’s it.
In one of my leagues, I waited until the 7th round to draft a QB and still made the playoffs on the backs of my amazing RBs and WRs (Chris Johnson, Frank Gore, Ray Rice, and Miles Austin put up the most points).
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on May 15, 2010 10:13 AM PDT up reply actions
It really does depend on the league
I played in a CBS league last year and of the top 10 point earners 8 were QBs. Only one RB made the list and that was Chris Johnson.
It all depends on how the commissioner sets up the scoring.
I was right, you were wrong.
That's some wack scoring, IMO
My league is somewhat QB friendly (6 pt TDs instead of 4) but RBs are still more important.
Besides, QBs are always going to put up monster points, the idea is that there are many good QBs but only a few good RBs.
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on May 15, 2010 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions
I hate 4pt TD leagues, but I love the ones that give points for completions and subtract for incompletes.
I hate any league that does not reward a defense for blkd kicks.
There's no Santa Clause?? I'm going on a rage infuriated streak!!
Blocked kicks
I petitioned to have my league award points for blocked kicks and it paid off as I had like 4 blocked kicks between my two defenses.
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on May 15, 2010 5:59 PM PDT up reply actions
I played in a league where it was worth 10 points
There's no Santa Clause?? I'm going on a rage infuriated streak!!
For just the blocks?
I got 6 pts for each block.
And 3 of my blocks went for TDs so I ended up with 12 pts for each block.
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
"I'm just like you, but 10 times better"
by SportsChicken on May 16, 2010 11:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Nah
6 pts for a TD, bonus points for TD passes over 40 yards. 10 pts for each 100 yards of passing.
-5 points for an INT.
Players were rewarded for total yardage, so a guy who can run, catch an return was very valuable.
I was right, you were wrong.
I don't like that scoring system
Seems too non-traditional.
I know, I’m a stubborn [site decorum]
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
"I'm just like you, but 10 times better"
by SportsChicken on May 16, 2010 11:08 PM PDT up reply actions
As a fantasy owner
Frank Gore worries me. I can’t remember him ever playing all 16 games. I would also be a little worried about how many touches he gets this year (I think it will drop some).
That’s what I figure. He is pretty injury prone
by Rod Blogojevich on May 14, 2010 4:33 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
The thing is the 49ers backfield is more crowded than its been in the past. we may sub out gore on a lot of shotgun plays, I think Anthony Dixon may become our shotgun-back. This will reduce his wear and tear, and I don’t think it will impact his carries that much, since we use the shotgun to pass usually anyway.
by hellaninersfan on May 15, 2010 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Depends who is there taking an injury prone Rb that high is risky, Fantasy is not about fan hood.
"Singletary Football". To me, Singletary Football isn’t whether it’s on the ground or in the air. It’s about execution, discipline, and the mental toughness that will help predicate success.
this is not a question of fanhood
this is a question of best RB available in a fantasy draft at sixth overall. This is based on ESPN’s rankings, not anyone here at NIners Nation, so the only homerism involved is that the story was chosen to be on Frank Gore because he was ranked 6th overall by ESPN. Here’s what ESPN’s top 14 rankings were:
Rank Name Team Position Rank
1 Adrian Peterson MIN RB1
2 Chris Johnson TEN RB2
3 Maurice Jones-Drew JAC RB3
4 Ray Rice BAL RB4
5 Michael Turner ATL RB5
6 Frank Gore SF RB6
7 Andre Johnson HOU WR1
8 Drew Brees NO QB1
9 Steven Jackson STL RB7
10 Randy Moss NE WR2
11 Rashard Mendenhall PIT RB8
12 Reggie Wayne IND WR3
13 Larry Fitzgerald ARI WR4
14 Aaron Rodgers
Again these are ESPN’s rankings, and future posts will also go by ESPN’s rankings since ESPN is not a NIners website. The debate of this discussion is about taking the BPA, and a player that had 13 total TDs in 2009, to go along with 1506 total yards from scrimmage. Gore may have not played 16 games in a season, but he has played in at least 14 every season he’s been in the league.
by Andrew Davidson on May 14, 2010 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions
Just curious
But why does ESPN have Peterson #1 over Johnson? Seems a bit off to me.
curious to me as well
perhaps because of the limited participation Chris Johnson is expected to have in some offseason activities. This may or may not affect the production of Chris Johnson, and personally, at this point, Chris Johnson should be number 1. He’s the best RB in football, and it’s still too early to consider CJ bumped down a ranking because of speculative opinions. When Chris Johnson is sitting out for a long period of time, it might knock him down. But it’s doubtful, there’s no way Chris Johnson isn’t a pivotal member of the Titans offense (if healthy).
by Andrew Davidson on May 14, 2010 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions
LT did that for years when he was the fantasy king. That’s a very silly thing to be worried about. The reasoning for AP #1 simply must have to do with consistency.
by InTimmyWeTrust on May 14, 2010 11:44 PM PDT up reply actions
I'd still take Peterson over Johnson
I think TEN’s blocking won’t be as good as it was last year.
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on May 15, 2010 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions
I was just saying that fanhood will not come into play and Gore at 6 is too high due to his injury history.
"Singletary Football". To me, Singletary Football isn’t whether it’s on the ground or in the air. It’s about execution, discipline, and the mental toughness that will help predicate success.
and I'm saying
at least 14 games in each season, and the fact that Gore is ranked highly by a national media outlet make him consideration for the sixth overall pick, because he is potentially the sixth best RB in 2010. With an improved oline, there’s obviously a chance Gore at least repeats 2009 which saw him finish 4th in average fantasy points per game with 15, and that’s missing technically 3 games, but the stat sheet uses 14 as the division. Seriously dude, read the links, this is not fandom of any kind except that Frank Gore is a 49er, and is much more interesting to discuss specific team players at places where national media outlets like ESPN are ranking Gore sixth best. Frank also finished sixth overall in fantasy points amongst RB in 2009.
Often times, the sixth best RB is more valuable at the sixth overall selection than the best ranked other positions. QB and WR positions are much deepr than RBs.
by Andrew Davidson on May 14, 2010 2:17 PM PDT up reply actions
It's too high for me to select them, I don't care what Espn ranks him at. I wouldn't take him at 6
"Singletary Football". To me, Singletary Football isn’t whether it’s on the ground or in the air. It’s about execution, discipline, and the mental toughness that will help predicate success.
Then that’s all you should’ve said instead of blaming the notion of Frank Gore at 6th overall is fan hood driven. Maybe going to some of the links would’ve prevented you from saying that. Gore was the sixth highest producing fantasy RB in 2010. Saying you wouldn’t take Gore sixth is one thing, but stating the reason that fantasy football is not about fan hood was completely inaccurate.
by Andrew Davidson on May 14, 2010 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions
I never implied that it had anything to do with fanhood, I stated it didn't.
"Singletary Football". To me, Singletary Football isn’t whether it’s on the ground or in the air. It’s about execution, discipline, and the mental toughness that will help predicate success.
also
Frank Gore had 8 games with 15 FP or more in 2009 (in leagues not using PPR), and 3 additional games with at least 10 FP. That’s 11 of the 14 games Gore played in, and the week 3 game he had just one carry. In week 7 (4 FP) against Houston, Gore was coming back from injury and the Niners fell behind early; Alex Smith mode was introduced. In week 13, Gore’s otther air-ball (4 FP), the 49ers as an entire team had an epic fail versus Seattle. Other than that, Gore was a pretty productive back in 11 of his 14 games played.
by Andrew Davidson on May 14, 2010 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions
He was, but I wouldn't take him 6th overall.
The OL is new, yet is unproven.
"Singletary Football". To me, Singletary Football isn’t whether it’s on the ground or in the air. It’s about execution, discipline, and the mental toughness that will help predicate success.
but what do you think about his rank relative to the other RBs? The next two are steven jackson, who’s coming off of back surgery, and Rashard Mendenhall, who is on a steelers team in chaos.
by hellaninersfan on May 15, 2010 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Jackson will be fine
Especially now that they have a QB he should find running easier.
I was right, you were wrong.
How is Bradford going to keep him healthy?
Jackson has always been injury prone.
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on May 15, 2010 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions
Jackson is more injury prone than Gore I wouldn't draft him in the first round.
There's no Santa Clause?? I'm going on a rage infuriated streak!!
Yep
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on May 15, 2010 5:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Jackson won't have to do all the work anymore
same reason a decent passing game helped out Gore.
I was right, you were wrong.
Will they have a decent passing game though?
I question Bradford’s ability to make the transition from spread offense QB to NFL QB by the time Sept. rolls around.
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
"I'm just like you, but 10 times better"
by SportsChicken on May 16, 2010 11:09 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm sure he'll struggle
but just having him there instead of Bulger or Boller or Null will make a big difference
I was right, you were wrong.
Lol at those three guys
Almost as bad as our QBs in 2004
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
"I'm just like you, but 10 times better"
by SportsChicken on May 17, 2010 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions
No
It’s a very good slot for him.
Even though he only plays 14 or so games a season, he’s still an elite RB.
Why aren’t you complaining about Jackson being ranked so high?
He’s more injury prone than Gore.
What about Turner?
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on May 15, 2010 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions
Uhhhh, we are talking about Gore, that's probably why!
There's no Santa Clause?? I'm going on a rage infuriated streak!!
He’ll get a fair number of touches with Bryon “Cement Foot-Catapult” Leftwich taking snaps for the Steelers with Big Ben is suspended.
by Andrew Davidson on May 14, 2010 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions
I think he'll struggle without Big Ben.
PIT’s OL isn’t that good and defenses will just key in on Mendenhall since Leftwich is terrible.
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on May 15, 2010 10:21 AM PDT up reply actions
I plan on
drafting Jahvid Best before Gore….
and by the way, Spits are leading the wheat kings 6-0 in the second period.
I predict you'll finish last in your league.
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on May 15, 2010 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions
Oh, man..
Those are terrible rankings.
Michael Turner should not be that high (although he did score 10 TDs in limited action, Rashard Mendenhall is not a 1st round RB, and Reggie Wayne is on the decline.
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on May 15, 2010 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions
Id take him at 6.
I have a feeling he’ll have a all out Stud year, but Brees is too high at 6 IMO. Also Strength of Schedule favors Gore.
In terms of fantasy football...
His health would be a bit of an issue. Although I would have no problems taking him at 6, I might pick Steven Jackson ahead of him. But 6th or 7th is about right for gore. Now that most teams are going with 2 feature backs, it’s rare that you’ll find a back that gets as many touches without having to share.
Steven Jackson is injured more often.
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on May 15, 2010 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions
Last year
Sitting at picks 12/13 in a snake draft, I took Frank Gore over Chris Johnson. This was based on a few reasons:
1) LenDale White was a TD vulture the year before, lost all this weight due to cutting out tequila, and the coach continued to say he’d get heavy work
2) RB’s often show a sophomore slump
3) PPR league, and Gore should be both the feature back and catch more passes.
4) Niners homerism.
In the end… oops.
"The questions are so stupid. I don't believe in rivalries. I don't believe in curses. Wake up the damn Bambino, maybe I'll drill him in the ass."
- Pedro Martinez, asked about the Curse of the Bambino
Chris Johnson's ADP in 2009
CJ was an average draft position of 13 in 2009. According to the same sight, Gore was an ADP of 16. Yep, you oopsed, but expect both guys to have hugh ADP in 2010 (CJ 1.5, and Frank Gore 5.4)
by Andrew Davidson on May 14, 2010 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions
FF
Last year in our Niners Nation league, I took:
Round 1, Pick 5: Chris Johnson (ahead of Frank Gore)
Round 2, Pick 8: Roddy White
Round 3, Pick 5: Dwayne Bowe
Round 4, Pick 8: Braylon Edwards
Round 5, Pick 5: Tony Romo
Round 8, Pick 8: Ray Rice (My 2nd RB overall – what a steal)
I always draft RB & WR through the first 4 rounds based on best available. This was an RB hungry league so it happened to be RB WR WR WR, but usually it’s something more like RB RB WR RB.
The best way to look at it is based on Tiers and what the drop off is from Tier 1 to Tier 2. I try to get two Tier 1 every week starters in the first two rounds and then draft for value. I don’t pick up a QB until rounds 5,6,7. I was still able to get a Tier 1 QB in round 5 otherwise I would have waited a couple rounds and taken two Tier 2 QB’s back to back (ie: Matt Cassel, Jay Cutler, Jason Campbell and alternate them throughout the season based on matchups).
Basically there’s a much bigger drop-off from someone like Adrian Peterson RB1 or Chris Johnson RB2 to Beanie Wells RB13 or Shonn Greene RB14 as opposed to Drew Brees QB1 or Aaron Rodgers QB2 to Jay Cutler QB13 or Donovan McNabb QB14.
There are 32 starting QB’s playing every down every week. How many RB’s are there that don’t split carries? 5?
2 stud RB’s or a stud RB and a stud WR will carry your team all year. You can always pick up serviceable QB’s off waivers throughout the year, but RB’s get drafted really deep so don’t count on picking up an every week starting RB off waivers in a 12 team league unless you are very very lucky. Draft for value and use players you don’t need as trade bait for players you do.
by bmoyer on May 14, 2010 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Brilliant
+ Have you noticed that it is significantly easier to find a WR on waivers than a RB?
Examples:
Miles Austin, Robert Meachem
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on May 15, 2010 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions
WRs are definitely easier
plus WRs can be really streaky so you’ve got to play the matchups carefully.
I was right, you were wrong.
True
I find that if you put enough time into your research you’ll have a significant advantage over your opponent.
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on May 15, 2010 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions
I picked up Chris Johnson late in the 1st last year
No one expected him to rush for 2K yards.
And he really struggled with Kerry Collins at QB (He cost me my Week 1 matchup).
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on May 15, 2010 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions
2 straight years
I’ve been Peyton’d as one of my teams each year had the top record in the regular season and then lost in the championship game. I will always pick RB first unless I am picking late and the elite ones are gone.
/Win the inning
//Renteria - Still not a VD but I crush a lot
///Willism is Realism
I have had Frank Gore on my team every year I have played
I don’t plan on changing it up too much this year.
"I'm blessed..... Thanks, God bless" ...hey, it worked for Tim Tebow.
What if you end up with a late 1st pick? (10-12th)?
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on May 15, 2010 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions
Is there a Niners Nation fantasy leagues(s)?
Dashon, Mays, and Bamm Bamm will get the record for most decapitations in one season
by MichaelClutchtree on May 14, 2010 5:41 PM PDT reply actions
I would like to know this as well.
And if there is does it cost anything?
I can't wait for Mango's sig to say "0 days to go".
by madmatt on May 14, 2010 7:33 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
There have been in the past and there will be again.
I believe there are prizes.
And then God created Saturn.. And he liked it, so he put a ring on it.
Eureka 49ers, my Niners blog.
Isn't it on yahoo, though?
That’s the biggest reason why I haven’t participated.
I like the ESPN format.
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on May 15, 2010 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions
?
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on May 15, 2010 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't like Yahoo either
maybe I’ll do a CBS league this year for Niners Nation or an ESPN one. I’ll look into it.
I was right, you were wrong.
If you do an ESPN league I'll definitely participate
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on May 15, 2010 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions
dont take a QB in rnd 1
workhorse RBs are even more rare now than they were back in the day when it was decided to draft them first. If you can get one, do not hesitate.
ok, we're all niner fans here, so...
amongst friends, is there any rational fantasy football drafter who would take frank gore at #6? honestly? i love frank the tank, but he stands to have one of his lowest non-injury-related carry totals this season. granted, the OL will be much better as a run-blocking unit, but it’s pretty obvious that singletary/raye are committed to the 2-to-3-headed attack at RB. if the niners run the ball 400 times, gore will get around 250 of those carries. unless he’s a revelation on the goalline, 250 carries does not a #6 pick make. just saying.
by (Florida) Danny Tuccitto on May 14, 2010 6:47 PM PDT reply actions
Frank Gore’s 229 carries were good enough to get him the 4th most FPPG last season, and 6th most FP total, amongst RBs. I think the debate needs to be more on the focus of “should you take the the 6th ranked RB at sixth overall, or should you take a top ranked player at WR or QB instead?”
Since ESPN has Gore ranked 6th, and other sites have him valued as a top 6 pick, this post was created. If Gore had’ve been ranked 8th, we’d be talking about Gore around 8 instead.
by Andrew Davidson on May 15, 2010 8:31 AM PDT up reply actions
i'm not attacking the post...
obviously. after all, i’m the one that posted gore is starting to enter the hall of fame conversation.
i just feel i’d have to be on drugs to take gore at #6 in a draft this year. in the 10-15 range, sure. not at 6. at 6, i’ll take the #1 WR rather than the #6 RB.
by (Florida) Danny Tuccitto on May 15, 2010 9:08 AM PDT up reply actions
I didn’t think you were attacking the post. If you draft the best WR in the class over the sixth best RB, you might be making a mistake. In 2009, Moss averaged 8.8 FPPG (best amongst all WR in non-PPR leagues), and that average would’ve been 13-14 FPPG in a PPR league. Gore averaged 15 in non-PPR leagues, something that would’ve been around 18-19 in PPR leagues. In the case of RB vs. WR, you’re taking points off the table by taking the best WR over the sixth best RB (going by 2009’s numbers).
by Andrew Davidson on May 15, 2010 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions
This
Plus you can always find good WRs if you’re on top of things.
I landed Miles Austin in week 4.
I was in the 1% of the people that started Miles Austin vs. the Chiefs when he scored close to 30 pts.
I also landed Steve Smith (NYG) and Robert Meachem.
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on May 15, 2010 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions
obviously...
if i know in advance that player A is going to avg more pts per game than player B, i will draft player A; whether he’s the #1 player at his position or the #50. so saying that it’d be a mistake to draft moss @ 13 PPG over gore @ 15 ppg goes without saying.
problem is that i don’t know this in advance of the draft. generally, i feel much more confident in my ability to identify the #1 player at a position vs. the #5, #10, or whatever. if i’m 100% confident in the #1 WR having 13 PPG, but only 85% confident in the #6 RB having 15 ppg, that means i can expect 13 PPG from the WR, but only 12.75 from the RB, thus making the WR a better pick given the level of uncertainty at the time the pick is made.
we’d all be geniuses if we did our fantasy drafts after the season ended.
by (Florida) Danny Tuccitto on May 15, 2010 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions
2005: Sixth best RB Clinton Portis 14.5 FPPG, first ranked WR Terrell Owens 10.6 FPPG
2006: Sixth best RB Brian Westbrook 14.8 FPPG, first ranked WR Marvin Harrison 8.7 FPPG
2007: Sixth best RB Jamal Lewis 13.9 FPPG, first ranked WR Randy Moss 13.2 FPPG
2008: Sixth best RB Thomas Jones 14.4 FPPG, first ranked WR Larry Fitzgerald 13.3 FPPG
2009: Sixth best RB Ray Rice 13.5 FPPG, first ranked WR Randy Moss 8.8 FPPG
In four previous seasons, the #1 ranked WR has not averaged more FPPG than the sixth ranked RB. Very seldom are you going to get more fantasy points from the best WR. Knowing for sure which RB is going to be the sixth best at season’s end is of course the difficult task when drafting, so I understand taking the best WR, but that’s not always a sure fire projection either.
by Andrew Davidson on May 15, 2010 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions
I would say 3 of those 5 RBs were projected as a top 6 RB heading into their respective seasons. I don’t think anyone was taking Jones sixth, or Ray Rice sixth last year. However, in all those seasons, it was a toss up who was going to be the #1 ranked WR. Moss was probably heavily ranked to be the top dog in 2008 (after his 2007 performance), but that didn’t pan out. In 2007, Moss certainly wasn’t getting much respect in fantasy drafts after heading to New England from Oakland.
by Andrew Davidson on May 15, 2010 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions
information provided by this website. PPR leagues are obviously going to have different resutls.
by Andrew Davidson on May 15, 2010 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions
this...
Knowing for sure which RB is going to be the sixth best at season’s end is of course the difficult task when drafting
it’s the uncertainty @ RB that makes taking sure-fire studs @ WR the better play in my mind. i mean, of late, fitz, moss, wayne, marshall, and welker have been up there at or near the top every season. among RBs, there’s a lot more turnover in the top 5 from year to year (my PPR league):
2007 = LT, westbrook, addai, portis, peterson
2008 = d williams, turner, forte, t jones, peterson
2009 = c johnson, peterson, MJD, rice, gore
15 players, and only 1 appears more than once. how’s that for turnover? so peterson is the only guy that’s consistently at or near the top. that’s why if i have the #1 pick, i take AP, not CJ or MJD, but not because ESPN ranks him #1 or that i think CJ/MJD are going to be busts this season. rather, i take AP because i’m about as close to guaranteed as you can get in FFL to getting a top-5 season from my #1 pick.
right around the middle of the 1st round is when the relative certainty @ #1 WR increases its expected value to the point that it overtakes the expected value of the #6 RB. hence, take #1 WR over #6 RB.
by (Florida) Danny Tuccitto on May 15, 2010 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah but I can get great production from waiver WRs
Steve Smith, Mario Manningham (early in the season), Robert Meachem, and Miles Austin cost me nothing and delivered handsomely.
Which late round/ waiver RBs can I pick up?
I figure it’s worth a chance to take a RB in the 1st. Especially since I’ve never struck out when picking a RB in the 1st.
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on May 15, 2010 6:03 PM PDT up reply actions
He was drafted in my league
So I never got a chance to grab him.
I did take Shonn Greene over him though.
/smacks forehead/
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
"I'm just like you, but 10 times better"
by SportsChicken on May 16, 2010 11:10 PM PDT up reply actions
You really think Coffee/Dixon will take 150 carries?
And Frank Gore is good for around 15 total TDs, and 1,500 scrimmage yards.
Seems like pretty good production out of your 1st round pick.
This is assuming he stays healthy though.
It’s better than drafting a bust like Matt Forte No.2 overall.
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on May 15, 2010 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions
i could see...
coffee + dixon taking 150 carries from gore, yeah. i really think they’re going to go that route because all the incentives are in that direction (e.g., wanting to keep him healthy for a playoff run, wanting to use recent draft picks, not wanting to overpay him when his contract is up, etc.).
by (Florida) Danny Tuccitto on May 15, 2010 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions
I can agree with this
especially since Gore will see a bunch more receptions as well.
If your league doesn’t reward RBs for reception yardage as well as running yardage you’ll be in trouble.
I was right, you were wrong.
Agree to disagree then?
I think they’ll feed him the ball constantly.
Not that he’ll have a 300 carry season, but he’ll get his numbers.
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on May 15, 2010 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions
I dream of Gore hitting 6 in RB points
But, not a chance in hell.
I can see LT and Marion the Barbarion beating him as part timers.
Maybe I’m hoping that Alex can throw for TD’s too, but, I dont think I’ll be taking him short of about 10th.
Gore
was sixth in fantasy points amongst RBs last year.
by Andrew Davidson on May 15, 2010 8:23 AM PDT up reply actions
lol
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on May 15, 2010 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions
If a RB is ranked 6th among all running backs
how is that not a 2nd round pick at best?
Whether or not you agree with the rating is another question entirely
I was right, you were wrong.
There aren’t a lot of productive RBs in fantasy football, but the WR position is extremely deep, and you can get quality fantasy producing QBs easily in the 4th round.
by Andrew Davidson on May 15, 2010 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions
OK, but that's still not answering the question
if Frank Gore is the 6th best RB in fantasy football how does that make him a first round prospect?
I was right, you were wrong.
Because more than 6 RBs are (should be) drafted in the 1st round
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on May 15, 2010 2:38 PM PDT up reply actions
Bah
Can’t see it.
You’ve got a 12 team league and the majority of the owners are going to draft RBs? Nobody’s going to get a QB or WR or a top defense or TE?
I was right, you were wrong.
In the 1st round?
It’s almost always 7-9 RBs.
This year it should be 6-8 since the media is really hyping up all the QBs.
That just means I’ll pick up a guy like DeAngelo Williams in the 2nd or 3rd round and laugh at everyone when I finish the season leading the league in points scored….again.
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
"I'm just like you, but 10 times better"
by SportsChicken on May 16, 2010 11:11 PM PDT up reply actions
1. Chris Johnson
2. Adrian Peterson
3. MJD
4. Ray Rice
5 Michael Turner ATL RB5
6 Frank Gore SF RB6
7 Andre Johnson HOU WR1
8 Drew Brees NO QB1
9 Steven Jackson STL RB7
10 Randy Moss NE WR2
11 Larry Fitzgerald
12 Aaron Rodgers
This is a QB and WR heavy 1st round which I disagree with, yet Frank Gore is still a 1st round pick as the #6 RB.
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on May 15, 2010 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions
Absolutely not
You think 6 WRs + QBs should be drafted in the 1st???
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on May 15, 2010 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah I do
Referencing the site which Andrew Davidson provided above.
2009 top fantasy scorers in points per game
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Drew Brees
3. Ben Roethlisberger
4. Matt Schaub
5. Peyton Manning
6. Chris Johnson
7. Tony Romo
8. Tom Brady
9. Brett Favre
10. Donovan McNabb
Next running back on the board after Chris Johnson was AP at 19, then MJD at 22, and Frank Gore at 26.
I was right, you were wrong.
9 of 10 top scorers were QBs
You know what that means?
There are plenty of QBs to go around!
Supply/Demand my friend.
You need to start two RBs no matter what, I suggest you take a good one before they’re all off the board.
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
"I'm just like you, but 10 times better"
by SportsChicken on May 16, 2010 11:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Fantasy Football is...
Dungeons and Dragons for the guys who beat up and made fun of the kids who played Dungeons and Dragons.
What is Dungeons and Dragons?
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on May 15, 2010 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Fantasy role playing game
of the pen and paper variety, not the computer
I was right, you were wrong.
Like World of Warcraft?
On paper?
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
"I'm just like you, but 10 times better"
by SportsChicken on May 16, 2010 11:14 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't get it
Oh well…
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
"I'm just like you, but 10 times better"
by SportsChicken on May 17, 2010 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions
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