How good does our QB need to be to get to the Super Bowl?
by Johnnysixnut on May 4, 2010 8:21 AM PDT
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PrintThe 49ers are the trendy favorite pick to win the NFC west this year and with good reason. The team has a young talented nucleus who are responding to their coach. They look to be on the brink of turning the corner as a franchise.
QB, however remains one of the biggest questions on the team. The 49ers go into this season with the same starting QB and offensive coordinator that they finished the previous season with for the first time since Joe Nedney had hair.
This continuity, along with a revamped offensive line and their best receiving corps since......Joe Nedney had hair? Should give Alex Smith his best chance yet as a 49er to succeed. The question I'd like to ask though is: How good does He need to be? More specifically, How good does he need to be to get us to the Super Bowl?
To answer this question I've decided to go back 10 year and look at the QB Ratings of each QB the season they went to the Super Bowl as well as their QB rating one season prior to going. I'm using QB Rating because it's an objective measure that's easy to manage. In a way this changes the question to: How well does our QB need to produce to get into the Super Bowl?, but I can live with that. I thought about going back 20 years to generate more data, but decided that the gain of additional data would have been offset by it's relevance. The game just changes too fast.
| Winners | Losers | ||||||
| 2010 | Drew Brees | 109.6 | 96.2 | 2010 | Peyton Manning | 99.9 | 95 |
| 2009 | Ben Roethlisburger | 80.1 | 104.1 | 2009 | Kurt Warner | 96.9 | 89.8 |
| 2008 | Eli Manning | 73.9 | 77 | 2008 | Tom Brady | 117.2 | 87.9 |
| 2007 | Peyton Manning | 101 | 104.1 | 2007 | Rex Grossman | 73.9 | 66.4 |
| 2006 | Ben Roethlisburger | 98.6 | 98.1 | 2006 | Matt Hasslebach | 98.2 | 83.1 |
| 2005 | Tom Brady | 92.6 | 85.9 | 2005 | Donovan McNabb | 104.7 | 79.6 |
| 2004 | Tom Brady | 85.9 | 85.7 | 2004 | Jake Delhomme | 80.6 | N/A |
| 2003 | Brad Johnson | 92.9 | 72.7 | 2003 | Rich Gannon | 97.3 | 95.5 |
| 2002 | Tom Brady | 86.5 | N/A | 2002 | Kurt Warner | 101.4 | 98.3 |
| 2001 | Trent Dilfer | 76.6 | 75.8 | 2001 | Kerry Collins | 83.1 | 73.3 |
Just looking at the list a couple things stick out. Most of the guys on the list are considered good if not great QBs and all but a handful were considered the a franchise QB at the time of their SB. The average QB rating for a starting QB in the last ten Super Bowls is 92.5 the season that they went to the SB and 87.1 the season before they went to the SB (Delhomme and Tom Brady's 2002 and 2000 regular season stats were omitted because they were not starters those years.) The lowest QB regular season QB rating for a SB QB was tied 73.9, Rex Grossman in 2006 and Eli Manning in 2007. Grossman also had the lowest rating for one season prior to winning the SB with 66.4.
Alex Smith's 2009 QB rating was 81.5. That puts him a little more than 10 points behind the mean QB rating of QB Starters. It also means that out of 20 starting QBs, Smith had a better QB rating than 5 out of 20 or %25 of all QBs in the last 10 years to start at QB in the SB.
So does any of this answer the question? How good does your QB need to be to get to the SB?
Right now, it says that Alex Smith's production is about 10 QB rating points below par (the average SB starter). So at last year's production level he would lower his team's chance to get to a Super Bowl, but his production would not be so bad that it excluded the chance of a Super Bowl appearance.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.
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smart
With a good defense, just don’t turn the ball over. Move the chains and keep that clock running by all means
Let's make a good team, a Great Team!
by chriscream on May 4, 2010 10:14 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
what was the average increase in QB rating
from year prior to SB year amongst the QB’s above?
Coaches teach technique, they can't teach speed. Taylor Mays will be just fine.
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Only 5.4, but that’s disregarding the two players who didn’t start the year before
I know what I'm talking about, I started at right guard for the 1992 College Park Falcons.
by Johnnysixnut on May 4, 2010 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions
Great post
In my opinion for the record in order for Smith to lead us to the SB he would have to play out of his mind. He would have to do things that Niners fans have never seen him do. Be consistant both under the center and in shotgun, control the defense with his eyes and change in and out of plays. His accuracy and anticipation has to be top notch also. We have a young team with little playoff experience. In this case Smith would have to pull off some historic QB play too offset that which would be difficult because he has no playoff experience himself. Smith would have to have a QB rating of about 90.0 for us to even have a chance to sniff a SB which will also be difficult because this is only his second year in the same system.
Beat Em To The Punch - Bill Walsh
I think he has to be the GUY this year to make Super Bowl. I'm not sure he is ready for that.
So in that case I agree with you. I think we can get to the playoffs with decent play, but no way we get past the elite teams with Smith playing less than stellar in playoffs. Imagine him in Minnesota or New Orleans in playoff atmosphere with how loud those stadiums can get. Or in GB with how cold it is. I really think we need Smith to play at a PB level, or close to it to make SB.
It's possible yes.
Everything else has to show up though. If the defense isn’t having their greatest performance in a playoff game, or a RB goes down, etc. the QB then has to win the game for the team. I think most of the lower rated guys above had a lot of help and if that help were to fail it’s iffy that they can take the game on their backs.
Coaches teach technique, they can't teach speed. Taylor Mays will be just fine.
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Yeah, I didn’t go into that trend at all, but it’s there and it’s pretty intuitive. The QBs that were low on the list also played for teams that were known more for defense and ball control.
I know what I'm talking about, I started at right guard for the 1992 College Park Falcons.
by Johnnysixnut on May 4, 2010 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions
It's possible but
our whole team would have to be clicking on all cylinders and we would need some luck to pull it off..big time luck..even if Smith continues to improve I think we are realistically another yr or two out.
Beat Em To The Punch - Bill Walsh
Good post.
It’s worth remembering, however, that nobody’s really come up with a QB statistic that separates their performance from the context of their team’s performance. How do you measure the impact on a QB’s performance of their OL (and by football outsiders adjusted line yards stat, we had the worst line in the league last year.)
I think we all want to see Smith improve, and most of us expect to see some improvement from him. I personally think it’d be a stretch to see us making the super bowl if we don’t get more out of him, but there is more than one way to get more out of him. (eg, he can improve, the line can improve, etc. )
It's interesting to read that most media don't expect our PASS protection will be much better in 2010
I found that really interesting. They are predicting our Running game will be MUCH improved but that the passing game will still be iffy due to Iupati (not known for passing as much as running) and having a rookie tackle on right side. Although Davis was thought as being the best pass rusher with his agile feet, just inconsistent.
I really wonder how much better our pass protection will be over Baas and Snyder with two rookies. We always hate on Snyder, but he has been in the league for a while. I can’t wait for the season. I think we will be able to run, and control the clock a little bit more, but let’s hope Smith gets some time, so he can take the next step forward. I’d hate to be Minnesota and be soooo close to a SB, but a QB away for years.
Well, one of the big problems we had last year -
- was that our running game was extremely feast-or-famine.
Gore put up fantastic numbers when he got past the line, but struggled to get past the line because our run blocking was so bad. The result was a lot of second- and third- and longs.
So even if the pass protection is exactly the same (and I expect it to be better by the end of the season, but who knows how long it will take to get there) we should be putting our QB in fewer obvious passing situations. 2nd-and-6 with a running game that can get four yards pretty consistently is a heck of a lot harder for the defense than 2nd-and-8 without, and 3rd-and-2 is a much easier down for a QB to throw on than 3rd-and-8.
That’s going to help Smith a lot.
I agree
Just hoping our pass protection gets better. We have to be able to pass to run, and run to pass. They both open things up for one another. I’m thinking Gore should get a couple more holes this year than he did last year. I’m so excited to see Iupati pulling on a sweep and leveling a LB.
Even if Smith has a Peyton like performance next year
I don’t think we make it to the Super Bowl.
I was right, you were wrong.
If he has a Peyton-esque performance our defense will always be rested and we can make because, anyone can go if they get hot.
Giants won and were never in the discussion when the playoffs began.
"Singletary Football". To me, Singletary Football isn’t whether it’s on the ground or in the air. It’s about execution, discipline, and the mental toughness that will help predicate success.
Good to know...
but obviously you can win a SB with a crappy QB rating, and you can lose one with a fantastic rating. In the end, it really doesn’t matter because the playoffs are a complete team effort. When the Cards made the SB for the ’08 season, they had awful defense all year, but put it together at the right time. Warner and the offense carried them up to that point. So, by that rational, we could play incredible defense all year, and maybe the offense turns it on in the playoffs.
Just for reference, the AFC starting QB in last years SB could’ve been a rookie with a 60 QB rating. I wouldn’t put too much stock into the numbers. What really is going to be a proving point is how good the offense can function as a whole next year.
offense as a whole, yes, not just Smith.
Specifically, assuming the oline is much improved, what kind of year will Gore have? He and Dixon will be the ones carrying the offense. I would predict fewer long runs (safeties out of the box) but more frequent first downs for Gore. I see a strong running game with lots of play action passing possibilites. I am not just talking smashmouth, and what is wrong with that anyway? It appears to me that this offense has been designed to take pressure off of the qb. I think this can work.
yezzir
i can’t wait to see the 3 headed monster on the ground. i hope coffee can step it up and surprise us this year.
"There is no pressure. Pressure only exists when you're not prepared."
-The Samurai
Alex Smith is garbage...
The Niners have better Odds than the Raiders. We knew that !
Niners – 14 – 1 to win the NFC and 30 – 1 to win the SB.
Raiders – 30 -1 to win the AFC and 80 -1 to win the SB.
Vegas board of last week.
This still puts the Niner in the middle of the pack to win it all But like all things, we can move up or down like DJI.
interesting
this has me thinking. i think alex smith is garbage, but he’s just as good, if not better than trent dilfur. (i’m from bmore n dilfur annoys me to no end)
my question is will our defense be as good as dilfur’s ravens defense?
"There is no pressure. Pressure only exists when you're not prepared."
-The Samurai
Alex Smith is garbage...
in a word
Yes
Coaches teach technique, they can't teach speed. Taylor Mays will be just fine.
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by Tre9er on May 4, 2010 6:29 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Are you sure Tre...
that Ravens D had Ed Reed, Ray Lewis, and Rod Woodson just to name a few. So far we only have Patrick Willis. Our D is good, but I doubt highly they can touch that team of future HOF’ers.
K.C.Edwards -AKA- "THE" DarkkStarr
optimistically, I'll counter you with
Franklin, Willis, Goldson, Clements, Spencer, Justin Smith
We could have 3 pro-bowlers on this defense easily this year. Not sayin we will, but there are at least 3 guys who could play well enough to be there.
Plus, our team is younger than the team you mention above. I’m not saying in 2010 we’ll be as good as the Ravens Defense was (though I think we could be)…but by 2011 I think we will be top 3 for sure.
Coaches teach technique, they can't teach speed. Taylor Mays will be just fine.
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Pro Bowlers in 1 year vs Hall of Famers is different.
That was one of better defenses of all time, we are a top 10 defense. I don’t think you can compare the two as much as I’d like to.
The game changes so much...
This is off the point, but the 2000 Ravens weren’t as good as the 2000 Ravens were either. It’s going to be really hard for anyone to duplicate the success that defense had in their playoff run. Almost every rule change since 2000 has gone the offenses way, I just don’t see a defense being as dominant as the 2000 Ravens or the 02 Bucs for that matter.
I know what I'm talking about, I started at right guard for the 1992 College Park Falcons.
by Johnnysixnut on May 5, 2010 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions
Agreed
This is an offensive league nowadays. Few people want to watch a 6-3 game with no offense. Everyone wants to watch a 49-42 game with Peyton and Brees slinging it around. Offense is good for business.
Man, I hate that though. I’d much rather watch a 6-3 game and see the offenses get beat up. Especially if my team has the 6.
I know what I'm talking about, I started at right guard for the 1992 College Park Falcons.
well
I’d like a 17-7 game or so.
I like a big play here and there, but I also like to watch Gore get 5, 7, 12 yard runs over and over. I like rarely getting to 3rd down while eating time off the clock. I like watching a swarming defense cause problems for the other team, not just INT’s but stuffing them 3-and-out.
Coaches teach technique, they can't teach speed. Taylor Mays will be just fine.
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the HOF'ers
were 1 year Pro Bowlers at one time. This is the beginning of a dynasty. I believe.
Coaches teach technique, they can't teach speed. Taylor Mays will be just fine.
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Oh noes he didn't y'all
Did he just use the “D” word?…
I was going to wait until we posted a winning record…
As volatile as the league is, I just hope the 49ers can put up a good enough team to make the playoffs most years. The best way to win super bowls is to be in the tournament. This year was an exception to the rule in that the two best teams in the league may have been in the SB.
The NFL isn’t the NBA where one of the four or so best teams wins almost every year. Single elimination tournament means lots of surprises come playoff time. Look how close Arizona came to winning. They may have been the worst regular season team to ever get to a SB, but they got HOT in the playoffs. Look at the Pats, they won 4 SBs in the last decade, but lost with their “best” team, maybe the best team ever.
That’s right, I’m saying that maybe the best football team ever didn’t win the SB. Of course I’m playing a little semantics with “best”, but entertain the point. In a sport that has as much do do with match ups and the way the ball bounces as it has to do with talent; the team with the best chance to win against the majority of the field (best team) , doesn’t always have the best chance to win. Even when they do have the best chance to win, they don’t always win.
The “best” 49er team ever may well have lost to the Vikings in the divisional round of the playoffs.
I know what I'm talking about, I started at right guard for the 1992 College Park Falcons.
by Johnnysixnut on May 5, 2010 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions
when I think of a dynasty
I think of a team that’s always in the hunt for a trophy, wins the conference 30% of the time and goes to a couple of superbowls within 5 years.
Or something like that.
Coaches teach technique, they can't teach speed. Taylor Mays will be just fine.
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5 years is a little too short
Dynasty to me is 10 years, or a decade. 49ers of the 80’s was a dynasty. Cowboys of the 90’s is a Dynasty. Pats of the 00’s was a Dynasty. Steelers in 70’s, Dynasty, and so forth.
5 years was just the time frame between SB's
if they went to 2 SB’s in 10 years I don’t think you could call that a dynasty
Coaches teach technique, they can't teach speed. Taylor Mays will be just fine.
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i don't think clements, spencer, or smith
will end up being referred to in the same class as ray lewis, reed, suggs, etc. that ravens defense definitely had more talent than we do. our defense will still be top 10, but what may help us is that our offense should be way better than that ravens offense was.
"There is no pressure. Pressure only exists when you're not prepared."
-The Samurai
Alex Smith is garbage...
Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Terell Suggs
Patrick Willis, Dashon Goldson/Taylor Mays, Justin Smith
Granted DG/TM have to develop a ton, but they have the potential to be great safeties and the other two are certainly all-pro, Willis is first-ballot HOF’er and Justin Smith is All-Pro caliber every year.
Not so far fetched…just hasn’t happened yet.
"I will speak at times, when it's necessary, but I don't believe in talking just because you can." - P-52
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That 2000 defense didn't have Ed Reed
He wasn’t drafted until 2002.
by mr. instigator on May 5, 2010 9:26 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm not so sure about that.
That Ravens D was argueably the best defensive unit of all time. I really don’t think we’re at that point yet. At some point in the near future, we could have a defense good enough to carry this team through the playoffs despite sub-par QB play; however, I don’t think this year they’ll be that good. We need the offense to be consistently productive in order to succeed.
I think they will be that good
the way their building the defensive unit, the depth, the youth…it’s only a matter of time.
Coaches teach technique, they can't teach speed. Taylor Mays will be just fine.
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so yes
maybe not this year, but feasible by 2011
Coaches teach technique, they can't teach speed. Taylor Mays will be just fine.
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I'd still say it's tough...
Unless we start shooting for some top FA’s. Our DL is still suspect at LE and NT is questionable for the future. We also have potential question marks at CB and maybe FS if they can’t re-sign Goldson. To add to that, our top OLB is looking like he’s gonna be gone after this season. It’s gonna be tough to get the defense that good that quickly unless we make a FA splash somewhere and draft strictly defense over the next two years. 2012 is more reasonable to say our defense will be that great.
I think we have good coaching
and a fairly savvy F.O. Those two things are what teams like the Ravens and Patriots have and were always able to always put a good team (especially defensively) on the field.
yeah, Manny might leave…but we have like 4-5 OLB’s on the roster who have some upside right now. Manny isn’t like a Willis leaving.
They’ll sign Goldson. He’s a draft pick, they like him…unless he’s a total douche and wont sign…I expect him to be back. If not, they must know what they’re doing. I trust this regime more than I have in the past.
I also expect them to either advance the CB’s on the team quickly or be looking to draft a stud in 2011. Again, I feel good about things.
Coaches teach technique, they can't teach speed. Taylor Mays will be just fine.
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But the point 9the is trying to make, is there are holes whereas Bal didn't have any
You are looking at half full, assuming we fix all these holes, assuming we are a historically GREAT defense in 2010 or 2011. The point is, BAL had a FANTASTIC defense, we are hoping we can strive to them one day, it’s hard to compare a defense that comes around once in a decade, to a defense that was what a top ten defense in 2009 with a LOT of holes.
I think we'll continue to add talent...
but you can’t always expect a rookie to step up immediately. I would imagine that Smith or Taylor is thought of as the answer if Goldson leaves through FA. Smith would’ve had the same amount of time as Goldson in a reserve role, and might end up being better if he can stay healthy and take a step forward this year.
As for Manny, you have to remember that he’s really the only complete OLB we have. We might be able to draft an immediate replacement, but they won’t match his experience. Harrelson isn’t as good in coverage or run support and Brooks has to prove this year that he can play OLB every down instead of just pass rushing on 3rd downs. Manny leaving will hurt this defense.
That’s just two places where we have holes opening up and I haven’t mentioned the CB and NT positions. We also might have no answers along the DL once Smith is gone. We have a good defense, but I think some people are too optimistic about how good they are.
by 9thevolution on May 5, 2010 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions
we have a lot of good players
who have only been with the team for a few years. The guys behind them have also been with the team for a few years, and by the time someone like Lawson leaves, if he does, Brooks will have had two years to learn, LaBoy could surprise and has experience, etc. Be positive. This team is smart and focused. They won’t allow things to decline drastically.
Coaches teach technique, they can't teach speed. Taylor Mays will be just fine.
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I'm staying positive...
I’m just not overly optimistic because I don’t think we’ve had drafts like the Pats and Ravens where there’s always someone ready to step in. There’s a lot of contracts coming up after this year and the labor uncertainty makes it all the worse. I just think it took a little too long to put the roster together and now we have players who want big money and we can’t pay them all.
I’m not so sure Brooks is completely ready to take on full duty at OLB for 3 downs, and Laboy has injury problems. The main thing I’d like to see is if Smith or Taylor can take over for Goldson if we let him walk.
I had a thought today
just a thought, what if Goldson walks…I think they try to keep Lewis and play him and Mays together.
Coaches teach technique, they can't teach speed. Taylor Mays will be just fine.
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I would imagine Lewis is released this year during camp...
or given the option to seek a trade. Honestly, his experience gives him a leg up, but I think Mays’ physical ability and speed will help soften that loss. We’ll only keep 4 safeties and between Lewis, Smith and Taylor, I’d rather dump Lewis to take a chance on the other’s upside.
My thought would be that if Goldson walks, we look to Smith and Taylor to compete for the FS spot. Smith is the likely shoe-in with 3 years on the bench (same as Goldson), and his cover skills coming out of college. It worries me though because he’s been banged up.
we carried 5 safeties last year
remember that Roman guy? Yeah, wish I didn’t either…
Coaches teach technique, they can't teach speed. Taylor Mays will be just fine.
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Lewis is gone
He is concussion prone, on downside of his career and is paid a LOT of money in 2011. I think they will get younger. If Golson walks, I think we turn to Reggie Smith, or Taylor or someone in FA.
as much as I don't like what Lewis lacks
until Smith/Taylor shows me something I’d rather have Lewis if Goldson walked.
Coaches teach technique, they can't teach speed. Taylor Mays will be just fine.
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Absolutely not...
Lewis has NO cover skills. He doesn’t compare to Goldson at all, and I don’t think Mays would be the best fit at FS. Honestly, despite not “seeing” something from Smith/Taylor, I’d take my chances with either of them stepping in.
by 9thevolution on May 6, 2010 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions
I think Mays and Goldson have a lot in common
Goldson was criticized for trying to lay the wood too much last year. He was criticized for not having a lot of range and ball skills too. Sound familiar?
Mays is crazy fast and if needed, would be athletic enough to cover the ground a FS needs to. Lewis would be the veteran playing with a youngster again…wouldn’t be loads worse than it was in 2009
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and yes
I know there is a lot more than speed and athleticism that goes into playing FS…but do you want an unknown commodity like Smith/Taylor playing FS and a green Mays playing SS?
"I will speak at times, when it's necessary, but I don't believe in talking just because you can." - P-52
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Mays wouldn't be green and Smith/Taylor would be very comparable to Goldson
Smith would have the same amount of time on the bench as Goldson did playing in a reserve role. I think while he is an unknown, he would fill the role fine. Plus, didn’t Goldson do alright last year when he was unknown?
Mays, while you may be able to say he’s green, his instincts tell him to do exactly what Lewis does: hit people. He isn’t as controlled as Lewis and doesn’t have the experience, but I say he fills in just fine from day 1 and makes up for the lack of experience on ability alone.
by 9thevolution on May 6, 2010 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions
a lot of
should and could though
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We still have until the end of this season to see.
Then there’s next years draft. I don’t see too many holes on the offensive side of the ball, so next year we can go defense all the way. I really don’t believe that Goldson showed anything special during his first three years while subbing in on certain plays. The team trusted that he could do the job and he did it well in his first year. I just can’t justify paying him top dollar based on two years of average play. I’d rather take my chances with another guy than sink my money on one player. We’ll also improve the CB position next year, so the safeties might not have to help as much.
I'm coming around on DG
I think he needs at least a solid first-half of the season before he get’s extended. Solid meaning really good. They can franchise VD fairly cheap then.
I hope they go after an elite young CB in the draft next year. I kinda fear they’re going to just keep adding veterans for depth and trying to cultivate mid-round picks though…
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Considering all the talent elsewhere...
I just can’t see them even making a play at Goldson. I think they’ll have to let him walk because of the other pressing matters. Let’s go over everyone briefly:
Davis: This, I feel, is the must sign. The contract shouldn’t be astronomical, so they should do it now before another TE gets a contract to set the market higher.
Franklin: Provides us the three years necessary at NT to bring someone else along. Even a 1st round prodigy won’t play as well as him. This should be just as high a priority as Davis.
Smith: Everyone seems to forget about Alex. His contract is up as well, and QB’s always get more money even if their play isn’t top caliber. Look at Cassel in KC. If Alex is going to be retained, it’s going to cost us.
Goldson: He played pretty good last year, but not pro bowl level. Don’t even think he made first alternate. A mild contract would be fitting, but he’s not worth top money yet.
Lawson: Love Manny as a 2 down OLB and wish they could re-sign him for a decent contract, but I doubt it happens. He’s most likely to walk after this year.
MacDonald: He’s not a starter and likely won’t look for big time money, but his contract is up after this season and he’s a solid contributor.
Baas: Would be a great backup and can potentially play all three interior positions. They likely won’t offer enough to keep him though, since he wants to start and will get the opportunity elsewhere.
That’s a pretty serious problem we’re facing. I think Goldson can be replaced easier than Davis, Franklin and Smith, so he would be priority #4 for me.
I also think we’ll go for an elite CB next year in the draft, which could off-set the need for a top caliber FS. Also remember we have the “mirror” safeties and can potentially shift Mays from one side to the other depending on who we see as a bigger threat in the passing game.
I think all of the top 4
guys on your list have to play for pay this season, even if it’s a half-season’s worth. The light went on for VD last year but will he continue to be as good or better than 2009? Smith certainly has to prove he deserves to be the guy of the future too. Franklin had one great year, Goldson had about 3/4 of a good year.
I think mid-season we’ll really know what the pecking order is.
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id say feasible
this year. we were almost a top 10 d last year
"There is no pressure. Pressure only exists when you're not prepared."
-The Samurai
Alex Smith is garbage...
Sorry to rain on everyone's Super Bowl parade but....
I just want to keep things in perspective. Teams that have been absent from the playoffs for the better part of a decade usually don’t win the BIG one the first time they get back in the postseason. Especially with such a young team, they will be need to be battle tested before they win one. Even the Saints had that NFC championship appearance a few years ago before finally getting theirs this year.
I’m just afraid that we will get to the big dance and face a team like Indy or NEw England that has been there before and know how to handle the spotlight and we will go through playoff growing pains. Every mistake is magnified 10x in the playoffs.
I still hope we can get there though I don’t doubt we are going to be a force in this league for years to come. The days of us picking in the top 10 are over.
Talk about your no win situation.....
Joe Theisman said it best….“when a team wins…the QB gets all the credit. When a team loses, they get all the blame”. To put it mildley, Smith has to bbe SENSATIONAL! something I simply haven’t seen him do to date. I have made my thoughts clear on Sith as a player, and I will not deem to delve further into that morase. However, I’ll try to sumit up by saying, I think I speak for a lot of the fans of the Niners that we don’t need him to be Joe Montana….we just don’t want him to contine to be Rex Grossman. his time is slipping too quickly into the realm of “bust”. (although some would argue that he did that 2 years ago.) Smith has to get on his gettie up or his gettie gone! Now or never, tomorrow isn’t promised to him. there now resides too many arms in camp and on the team for his continued slide into mediocrity. And if coach Sing stays true to his form, he won’t tolerate continued miscues from his starter.
K.C.Edwards -AKA- "THE" DarkkStarr
Didn't last year SB show something.
Defense wasn’t a issue in the Game. Consider a total combined 764 yards were given up. Either team gain a 100 yards running only because thet were both passing teams. The only stat. on defense that interest me was sacks with NO getting 4 and Indy getting 1 and only 1 Int. for both teams. Defense may get you into the SB but you are going to need an Offense to win it !!
I did I forget to mention
Steelers vs. Cardinals ? Pass Happy Offenses ?
by LASVEGASNINER on May 5, 2010 9:08 AM PDT up reply actions
Niners vs Jets super bowl
Neither team would be pass happy, so your arguement doesn’t really fit.
Look at your examples a little closer and you’ll see why they were pass heavy games. The Cardinals had no running game and were playing against a team that was top 5 against the run. They played to their strength and forced Pittsburgh to play their game which was pass friendly.
Now look at the Colts, who prior to the super bowl, hadn’t had a carry of 20+ yards in nearly three full years. They haven’t been able to run the ball since Edge left and it showed against a stout defense in that game. They put the game in Payton’s hands because that was their best option of winning. That forced the Saints to also go pass heavy, which is also their strength. The QB dominated games only happen because the opposing defenses can’t stop them.
If I remember correctly though, we held the Colts to 18 points and Manning didn’t have a TD pass. You can win a SB on the strength of your defense and only need the offense to limit mistakes and make a play here and there.
by 9thevolution on May 5, 2010 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions
Addai's TD pass to Wayne
haunts me. Watching Spencer bite on the toss sweep look, leaving nobody deep. Goldson was way out of position too. Man o man…
Coaches teach technique, they can't teach speed. Taylor Mays will be just fine.
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I’m pinning that one on Arnaz Battle’s punt fumble.
I know what I'm talking about, I started at right guard for the 1992 College Park Falcons.
by Johnnysixnut on May 5, 2010 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah that play was ugly...
The offense was pretty inept in that game too though. Everyone says we fall flat in the 1st half and come out swinging in the 2nd, but that game was the opposite. We didn’t do anything offensively after halftime.
Saints had a quality running game last year against Indy's awdul run defense
I don’t they would have went quite so pass heavy if it wasn’t necessary. Indy puts up points quick and the Saints had to respond.
by 9thevolution on May 6, 2010 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions
That Matt Hasslebach guy sure was a beast in 2006...
Boredom. Wish I worked today…
"It came down like a punt, Coach!" - Josh Morgan
by shlecko on May 5, 2010 10:16 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Basically, the better your QB is, the worse the other 10 guys can be (and still have a top 10 offense).
Good QB’s make your line better (via avoiding sacks by either getting the ball out quicker or moving in the pocket/running to elude rushers).
They help your receivers with ball placement (which aides RAC yards & the ease of catching the ball in the 1st place) & b/c they identify when the receiver is open (earlier – sometimes before they are even open)
They make your running game better b/c teams can’t play 8 in the box.
On the other hand, the worse your QB, the better everyone else on the team has to be. B/c bad QBs need more time, more separation from the DB/LBs by the receivers & the running game may see 8 man fronts.
QB -Alex Smith Will Take Us to the SUperbowl 2-3 Seasons Time
l believe that ALEX can take us to the superbowl.He is got character to be a QB for 49ers is not an easy job,most criticized position in the whole NFL.I think this is time to shine now,all things are in place, the only weakest link in my opinion is the offensive coordinator Rayes!!!
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