Re-reviewing the 2007 NFL Draft
by David Fucillo on May 5, 2010 7:00 AM PDT
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One of the common refrains when it comes to NFL Draft discussion is that you have to wait three years before you can really evaluate a team's draft class. Obviously the three year figure doesn't apply to all players, but it's certainly a good place to start. While some players will emerge after that, for a lot of players, you know what you're going to get going forward.
Given that we're three full seasons removed from the 2007 draft, I thought it'd be fun to take a look back at that class. The timing is particularly good given Patrick Willis' five year contract extension yesterday. Additionally, the timing works because Pete Prisco of CBS Sports recently put together a re-grade of those classes. To complete the circle so to speak, I found his original 2007 grades. I've posted both grades after the jump. He actually gave the 49ers an A both times, but for some slightly different reasons.
2007 Draft Class
| Rd. | Sel # | Player | Pos. | School |
| 1 | 11 | Patrick Willis | ILB | Mississippi |
| 1 | 28 | Joe Staley | OT | Central Michigan |
| 3 | 76 | Jason Hill | WR | Washington State |
| 3 | 97 | Ray McDonald | DE | Florida |
| 4 | 104 | Jay Moore | DE/OLB | Nebraska |
| 4 | 126 | Dashon Goldson | S | Washington |
| 4 | 135 | Joe Cohen | DT | Florida |
| 5 | 147 | Tarell Brown | CB | Texas |
| 6 | 186 | Thomas Clayton | RB | Kansas State |
Original grade
Best pick: I love the pick of Jason Hill in the third round. He will be a starting receiver by mid-season.
Questionable move: Moving back up into the first round to get tackle Joe Staley. He's a good player, but was he worth the picks?
Second-day gem: Corner Tarell Brown from Texas is a good player who should have gone higher than the fifth round, but character issues drove him down.
Overall grade: A. They drafted a lot of really good football players. The scouting staff deserves big props.
Re-graded
The 49ers had two first-round picks and nailed both of them. Pro Bowl middle linebacker Patrick Willis came with the 11th pick, while tackle Joe Staley came with the 28th pick. Both have been starters since their rookie season. Third-round picks Jason Hill and Ray McDonald are both backups. Fourth-round safety Dashon Goldson started 16 games last season at safety, giving him great value as a second-day pick. Corner Tarell Brown, a fifth-round pick, started four games last season.
Grade: A
MY THOUGHTS
In looking over Prisco's efforts, there's a couple things that stand out. There's really no need to say anything about Patrick Willis. We know that pick has been a homerun. Prisco questioned moving back into the first round to get Joe Staley. Staley hasn't been a lock down left tackle, but he's been very solid, and is a guy the 49ers have committed to building their offensive line around. There has been some talk that Anthony Davis could eventually take over at left tackle, so it will be interesting to see how Staley is utilized in the coming years as Davis hopefully proves himself.
Jason Hill
Back in 2007 he was obviously way off on Jason Hill. Hill has struggled to find playing time, and 2010 looks to be a big year for him in terms of figuring out where he fits in with the 49ers. At best he's the #3 receiver, but he could very easily be the 4th or 5th receiver depending on how training camp plays out. He's had his moments where he appeared to flash some serious skills. Unfortunately, he's been wildly inconsistent as he's battled to get out of Coach Singletary's dog-house at times.
Tarell Brown
Prisco was high on Tarell Brown, or at least thought he should have gone higher if not for character concerns. Brown has certainly shown a good deal of talent, but he's reached the point where it's a matter of providing a bit more consistency week in and week out. He took over the starting CB role, bumping Nate Clements to the bench, but he was unable to hold on to it. This year's training camp will be quite interesting as we see him battle with Nate Clements and Shawntae Spencer for starting time. The 49ers have several other cornerbacks in camp, but at this point they'd be battling for nickel and dime roles. Brown is battling to become a full-time starter.
Ray McDonald
McDonald has settled into a backup role with the 49ers as a situational pass-rush threat. His numbers through three seasons haven't been spectacular, but given his ability to block kicks, he's looking to be a quiet playmaker for the team. I don't think he'll ever be a starter with the 49ers, but if he can continue to develop his pass-rushing skills, I think he could be invaluable to the defense. You might like more than that from a third round pick, but it's better than some of the busts out there. McDonald is a free agent after 2010, so it will be interesting to see what the 49ers decide to do with him long term.
Dashon Goldson
Prisco's comment was understated, but as he put it, Goldson has brought great value as a second day player. He couldn't emerge as a starter through two seasons, but then busted through in a big way last season as the starting free safety. He has plenty to work on to improve his game, but if the 49ers can work out a long-term deal, Goldson could be the team's free safety for the foreseeable future. The idea of a potential Mays/Goldson safety duo is really quite exciting.
Overall picks
The 49ers didn't hit on every pick, but at this point, they've come away with at least three full starters in Willis, Staley, and Goldson. Tarell Brown could be a fifth, but even as a full-time nickel back he's a solid value from the fifth round. McDonald and Hill were drafted 19 picks apart in the third round, and yet the expectations would seem a bit different. McDonald has settled into a pass-rushing role. Whether that disappoints folks or not, he is what he is. Hill on the other hand has not been able to latch onto a particular role. He's flashed some skills, but never consistently. Given that, it's a bit easier to get frustrated with him. 2010 will be a big year for Jason Hill's future with the 49ers.
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Interesting how
both in 2007 and 2010 the “experts” criticized the Niners for trading up for picks. I doubt anyone is complaining about trading up for Staley now. And trading two places to ensure getting Davis for the cost of a fourth round pick is so cheap compared to some other reaches in the draft that you’d think that the experts are just looking for something to lower the score.
Fact is, you have to wait a few years to figure out how good a draft class is. And sometimes even three years isn’t enough for some players. If Dez Bryant tears up his knee in a pre-season game and never plays again it was a lousy pick. If he leads the league in receiving he was a steal.
I guess that grading is good and fun and it keeps me going this time of year, but unless Prisco has a time machine he’s just guessing.
by Bob In Beaverton on May 5, 2010 7:28 AM PDT reply actions
Okay, I’ll complain about trading up for Staley.
If we hadn’t traded up for him, we would have had the 7th pick in the 2008 draft. The next tackle to go at that point in the draft? Ryan Clady.
Staley’s okay, but as Fooch said, he’s not a “lock down left tackle.” Clady is.
by bravehoptoad on May 5, 2010 8:53 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
it's ok. We got Davis.
but yeah, Staley would end up being an expensive RT…but if the line is dominant, I’ll pretend I don’t care…and I wont.
Coaches teach technique, they can't teach speed. Taylor Mays will be just fine.
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Staley's cheap
I really mean it. Look at my post on the salaries of the players and you’ll see what i mean
I was right, you were wrong.
Agreed
He isn’t paid much for a LT tackle at all. I think his salary probably falls in line with elite RTs though, but that’s off the top of my head.
isn't that a bit of post-hoc rationaliation though
I mean to predict a year later that Clady, from BSU no less, was going to jump out at scouts wasn’t a given at all
Sure it is!
But we still would have had the 7th overall pick in the draft, from which it was reasonable to assume we could have drafted an LT of at least Staley’s quality.
Trading our next year’s #1 to get Staley was a “win now” move by Mike Nolan, intended primarily to help his career first, the 49ers second.
by bravehoptoad on May 5, 2010 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't think it's been brought up
But the 49ers were void of OT’s in 2007. They almost had no choice but to draft one (sound familiar). What Nolan put on the field to block for Smith was almost criminal in 2007, it probably would have been criminal without Staley.
Ray MacDonald
In fairness to MacDonald there have been some serious injuries to his knee hampering his development. He deserves a fully healthy year before he gets his final grade, too. And a third round pick who plays every third down on defense and stars on special teams is a good pick—-let’s not get too greedy here.
my thoughts
Jason Hill
Hill could be a solid #2 or #3 WR on another team. He showed talent in his limited playing time last year. He got open when Smith was in trouble a few times and also didn’t drop the ball. I’m interested to see if the team utilizes more of a rotation at #2 and #3 WR this year. I think this is the last year for Hill to prove himself.
Tarell Brown
Is Brown a Nickel back or can he start? Sure he was promoted for the Indianapolis game but later lost his spot to Dre “gon be Dre” Bly (that’s not a knock on Bly, I just like to keep using that as his nickname). He is slightly faster than Nate and ‘Tae but can he be physical enough on receivers and in run support? He’s likely the heir to the Clements throne if his play improves just a little, unless the team drafts a 1st or 2nd round guy (like Wilson, McCourty, Robinson, etc. this year).
Ray McDonald
McDonald has shown enough to me that he should push for a “starting” role at DE in base. It looks like in Nickel we’re rolling with Smith on the right and a rotation of OLB’s on the left. McDonald could possibly stay on the field as a DT in Nickel, but he again has to show he deserves to be on the field. I think he has the talent to take over for Sopoaga but the question is will he do it?
I think Goldson is a star in the making. My only question is his heart. Is he playing for Dashon or for the 49ers? Money or winning?
Coaches teach technique, they can't teach speed. Taylor Mays will be just fine.
Follow me on Twitter
interesting
McDonald does seem to play DT in the Nickel. I had forgotten the different personnel we used in 2009 in Nickel. I just watched “the dagger” (Favre/Lewis TD pass) and it was, from L to R: Haralson – McDonald – Smith – Lawson.
Did we use Justin Smith at DT in Nickel a lot last year? I thought he was RDE in Nickel a lot too and we used Balmer and McDonald as DT’s, with Brooks (or another OLB) as LDE?
Coaches teach technique, they can't teach speed. Taylor Mays will be just fine.
Follow me on Twitter
3-4 nickel sets often don't have traditional "tackle" and "end" positions.
People think that you replace a linebacker with a defensive back, but in actuality, it’s almost always the NT that is the first to come off the field in those sets. Both defensive ends slide in and you either keep both OLBs on the field to rush or replace one of them with another rush-specialist – like McDonald.
McDonald’s size and Smith’s incredible versatility just make it easier to allow the 49ers to have those guys up front on passing downs.
"It came down like a punt, Coach!" - Josh Morgan
no, I know
it depends on your personnel, your players. Some guys can slide in from DE to DT in a Nickel set. Some are not strong enough. Some OLB’s can rush from a 3-point stance in Nickel, some can’t.
I was trying to figure out more where specific guys were playing along the D-Line in Nickel. I had thought Smith played RDE some in Nickel too, not always sliding in to DT.
Coaches teach technique, they can't teach speed. Taylor Mays will be just fine.
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Yeah, Justin Smith will be pretty hard to pin down.
If you remember two years ago, he saw some attention because he played just about everywhere. Smith can rush from an upright OLB spot, as a down lineman on the edge, lined right up over the middle of the center, and he’s even been known to drop back into coverage or spy on some blitz packages.
For the most part, it’s as you say – the ends sliding inside – but Smith is too good of an athlete and too versatile of a football player to not move him around to keep defenses on edge.
To answer your original question:
Did we use Justin Smith at DT in Nickel a lot last year? I thought he was RDE in Nickel a lot too…
Yes and yes. =)
"It came down like a punt, Coach!" - Josh Morgan
excellent
McDonald saw a fair amount of time at DT too…I really think this is his Camp to supplant Sopoaga. Soap can back him up for breathers on run downs here and there but it’s time for young blood and more push at LDE
Coaches teach technique, they can't teach speed. Taylor Mays will be just fine.
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Smith hardly ever came out last year
McDonald was nearly always in on passing situations.
I was right, you were wrong.
Hill could be a solid #2 or #3 WR on another team.
The Niners receiving core has been pretty turrible the last few years. If he can’t earn a starting role here, I find it hard to believe he’d make it anywhere else. Maybe in the CFL?
Trust me, learning english isn’t a waste of time. It is actually sort of useful.
-randolphforpresident
by Dubs fan in Boston on May 5, 2010 8:43 AM PDT up reply actions
sometimes it's just a matte of the team you're on
he just didn’t get on the field last year. Not many WR’s did once Crabtree came in. This year will tell if/where Hill fits in
Coaches teach technique, they can't teach speed. Taylor Mays will be just fine.
Follow me on Twitter
Hill could be a solid #2 or #3 WR on another team.
by other team you mean the Sacramento UFL franchise?
no
teams who have no receivers like St. Louis, Chicago, Tampa Bay
Coaches teach technique, they can't teach speed. Taylor Mays will be just fine.
Follow me on Twitter
Chicago?
I thought their WRs were a strength of the team.
"You lost your arms in battle! But you grew some nice boobs."
Hope that's a joke???
Their #1 WR is a converted CB/PR.
Cutloler
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on May 5, 2010 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions
I was so drunk the day we drafted these guys
I can’t even say what I thought at this time. Actually, yes I can (it was something like “WHAF the heac y did we jus trade 4 STELEY????!?!?!!?”)
But yeah – a very solid draft – let’s hope this year’s turns out as good.
If you don't like Brandon Medders you're not a true fan.
I know this was the Lambs
but this brought tears to my eyes…how good the defense can play
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=637nGGzi2Tc
Coaches teach technique, they can't teach speed. Taylor Mays will be just fine.
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that stunt play
with Smith stunting around to the left…looks unstoppable
Coaches teach technique, they can't teach speed. Taylor Mays will be just fine.
Follow me on Twitter
sure looks like McDonald
is always on the field in Nickel.
Coaches teach technique, they can't teach speed. Taylor Mays will be just fine.
Follow me on Twitter
Yeah it was the Lambs
But it was still one of the better all-around games of the season. It was one that showed with a healthy D how good they can be, and they pretty much showed it all season. Looks like it should continue later this year. Some thoughts that stand out from that game:
Justin Smith-Thank God he’s on our team
P-52-Is there any question we have the best LB in the NFL?
Spikes-If he holds up well next season, do we try to re-sign him?
Bly-With a lack of depth at corner, why are we not trying to sign him for at least another year?
Morgan-He may very well prove to be a legitimate #2 WR for this team
Coffee-Give him this year to prove his worth. I think he can.
OL-Most times a QB is merely as good as what’s in front of him
102 days to go. . .
Spikes
as long as his play is good, you give him a 2 year deal. Meanwhile Bowman and others are nipping at his heels, learning, getting better and better so it’s more seamless when they take over.
Coaches teach technique, they can't teach speed. Taylor Mays will be just fine.
Follow me on Twitter
I don't think so at all
I think he gets a max 1 year deal if he is playing good, but I think it more depends on who is behind him. If Bowman is ready to step into that role, I don’t think it matters how good Spikes is. If we use a high draft choice on ILB next year, again, doesn’t matter how well Spikes plays, he is gone.
1 year deals are for guys off the street
they are kinda slaps in the face for a guy who’s been on your team, loyal, contributor. They need a 2-year deal to get some good guaranteed money to protect themselves.
"I will speak at times, when it's necessary, but I don't believe in talking just because you can." - P-52
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Morgan
showed nice RAC ability on that quick dump. It’s all about getting these guys involved more, creatively, for me.
Coaches teach technique, they can't teach speed. Taylor Mays will be just fine.
Follow me on Twitter
Good ball concentration too
on the TD. It got there ok, but I imagine the way it did didn’t make it an easy catch.
A little credit to Hill too. He had a funny way of doing it, but most of the time his throws got to where they were supposed to be.
102 days to go. . .
Hill was a gamer
he made good decisions, look at the Arizona week 1 final drive. He had lots of pressure on that drive and made good choices. I only wish he had a stronger arm for the down the field stuff so it wouldn’t “come down like a punt”
Coaches teach technique, they can't teach speed. Taylor Mays will be just fine.
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Good article, that's what I have been waiting for.
By why did we choose CBS guy? Why not the draft “gods” in McShay and Kiper? It always seems like grades are pretty high but I’d be interested to rehash what they felt were the strengths and weaknesses of our draft picks. Like did they think Willis was undersized? What were the concerns, and their grades. Was Willis #1 rated LB in draft (I can’t remember), what about Staley, what was his grade? Were the Niners touted as making a great move moving into the 1st for Staley at the expense of a #1 in the future?
Let’s get more in depth with our future draft choices. I’m off to Vegas in a day so I don’t have time, otherwise I might just look into doing it.
CBS
Prisco re-graded the 2007 draft. I haven’t found a re-grade over at ESPN. If you check out either of those links for Prisco there are a bunch of Cs mixed in.
by David Fucillo on May 5, 2010 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions
I doubt any of the ESPN guys would be willing to criticize their work years down the road.
I’m thinking WE should. Why can’t we look at what people said about our past drafts, the concerns, strengths, etc…and criticize or grade it ourselves before TC starts.
For instance, this year we got the best Guard to come out in a long time, it would be interesting to see how he does 3 years from now. Or the fact that we got a Safety with concerns in coverage, it would be interesting to see how many INT’s he has in 3 years and if he really is a liability in pass coverage. Etc….
I’m just curious to see how Kiper graded our draft, and what he thought of Willis, Brown, Staley, etc….
I think 2007 was a great draft
Future Hall of Famer in Willis
Anchor at LT for the next 10 years in Joe Staley
A guy who can be a decent #2 or #3 WR
A guy who started last year at LDE before getting hurt and who I think will challenge Sopoaga for starting time this year.
A miss
A great safety who finally started putting together the pieces last year
A miss
A pretty good CB who I think will challenge for starting time this year.
One of the fans favorite practice squad guys.
Really a pretty good draft there.
I was right, you were wrong.
But 2008...
Not so much. And 2009 could end up being nothing but Crabtree.
Fingers crossed for the class of 2010.
by bravehoptoad on May 5, 2010 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions
1 29 Kentwan Ballmer
2 39 Chilo Rachal
3 75 Reggie Smith
4 107 Cody Wallace
6 174 Josh Morgan
7 214 Larry Grant
Ballmer hasn’t shown he’s a first round pick. I really like Rachal. Reggie Smith has been oft injured. Who knows what Cody Wallace can do. For a 6th round pick Morgan has turned out pretty good. Larry Grant is an ok backup for the Rams (played in all 16 games last year).
So yeah, 2008 not so much.
I was right, you were wrong.
DL takes a while.
I’m not giving up on Balmer yet, but man his leash is getting short.
Rachal was REALLY young and raw when he came out, and even he knew it, he came out early to take care of his family. I think he turns it on this year, and even Barrows agreed. I think we are looking at one of the better OLs in the league for years to come.
Wallace, is garbage. Smith is good, just injury prone. That’s not the FO fault. They can’t predict injuries, he was pretty highly touted coming out.
Morgan is solid for 6th rounder, and Grant is a flyer in 7th round. He is very athletic but could take a while to put it together.
DL takes on average 2-3 years to develop
this is Ballmer’s last year to show anything.
I was right, you were wrong.
I think Brown can be a starting CB.
I don’t think he played so bad as to lose the job last season either. I’m conflicted. I think the team is stronger at cornerback than one might think, especially if Clements wishes to prove everybody wrong.
And then God created Saturn.. And he liked it, so he put a ring on it.
You go strolling through the crowd like Peter Lorre... contemplating a crime.
NFL.com ...
… reviewed this draft just before this year’s draft, and they had both Willis and Staley as top 10 picks, giving us two top 10 selections in 2007 (obv Willis was considered top 10 but still a bit low I thought; can’t remember exactly but I think maybe fifth, which was odd imo considering he’s on track to be best player ever in his position). I am on my mobile so cannot find link.
LondonNiner - member of the legendary David Carr thread, 6 March 2010.
by LondonNiner on May 5, 2010 10:58 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
That was exactly it
Thanks Fooch. Willis went fourth, not fifth, but still low I thought, and Staley tenth.
LondonNiner - member of the legendary David Carr thread, 6 March 2010.
by LondonNiner on May 6, 2010 10:50 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
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