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Is the upcoming 2010 season the most important 49ers season in recent memory?

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As die-hard fans of the 49ers, it's very easy for us to succumb to exaggeration. Consider it an extension of our irrational support for guys like Kory Sheets or Thomas Clayton. Given how much time and energy we put into analyzing the team prior to, during, and after each season, it's easy to think the upcoming season is always a monster season. After all, when a team hasn't made the playoffs in almost a decade, it's easy to assume the next year is huge because that's when the team will finally break through.

The 49ers have not made the playoffs since 2002. When they were making the playoffs in 2001 and 2002, I would argue the team wasn't exactly expecting a huge run. That's not to say they didn't want to win it all, but the team was a bit of a rut (a rut we'd all have loved the last few years). And obviously after the struggles over the last seven years It's easy to get excited about the expectations of a team when ever anything positive happens.

Given all that, how important does 2010 stand in comparison to recent seasons, or even dating back to the 90s? We've discussed the details leading into the season, but I think it's time to take a step back and consider the upcoming season from a broader perspective. The team has taken steps forward the last season and a half under Mike Singletary, but now they need to get over the hump.

In looking back, one could argue that heading into 2007 we were looking at another benchmark type of season, heading into said season. The team had finished up 2006 7-9 the previous year thanks in part to a couple big wins over the division-winning Seahawks. Frank Gore had an historical season and Alex Smith seemed to be showing signs of development. Confidence was high among fans. And then the team fell on its face in 2007.

Looking back at the 49ers heading into 2007, and particularly comparing it to the team heading into 2010, the differences are drastic. On the one hand, Frank Gore was coming off what remains the best season of his career. However, beyond that, the 2006 49ers had nowhere near the level of talent the 2009 49ers had. While it's true the 2006 team finished a mere game worse than the 2009 team, a look at the two teams would show the drastic differences on the rosters (2006 and 2009).

We continue looking back to find a comparable season after the jump.

Star-divide

Given the varying levels of talent on each team, it's hard to find a season quite comparable to the season the 49ers just completed, and the season they're heading towards. You can run through the Pro Football Reference 49ers Franchise Index to compare seasons. Obviously teams in the 90s were better and had more talent than this team, but the difference is that this team is following some pretty bad teams, and is looking to take that big step back to respectability. We haven't seen that arguably since the pre-Walsh era.

One could argue for the 2001 season, in which the 49ers rebounded from back-to-back losing seasons to go 12-4 and then lose in the first round of the playoffs to the Packers. The 49ers lost Steve Young in early 1999 and spent that season and the 2000 season developing their identity behind Jeff Garcia. The current stretch has been a bit longer of an exodus back to respectability, but it could be somewhat comparable.

Whatever season we compare, I view 2010 as a monstrous season for this team. Expectations are as high as they've been since the team made the playoffs in 2002. And in fact, one could view the early '00s as expectations on the downswing, while now things are on the upswing.

The team cannot afford a repeat of the 2007 season, or anything remotely resembling that. The team certainly has holes, but anything short of a winning record would be a bitter disappointment for most folks. This certainly sets expectations to a point where disappointment could very well result. And yet, I'm tired of the days where expectations were low and it was easy to surpass them and make me happy. The team hasn't accomplished anything yet, but the proper mentality for fans appears to be on its way back to being in championship form.

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Personally

I think the team has a short window, for the most part…because most all of the pieces are here right now, and while the team is young and is cultivating young players, there are a bunch of guys nearing 30. Now, my point is that it’s hard to expect the team to replace 6 or 7 current starters in say 3 years with players who are equally as talented or more talented than the current guys. Guys like Justin Smith. The team isn’t strong on the DL right now anyways and if Smith starts to decline while we’re still in search of a replacement for Soap and possibly Franklin…that wont help a great run defense.

I fully expect, both in that I believe it’s possible, and that I am telling the team that I want to see it, that the 49ers not only make the playoffs, but win the first game therein. I also think 2011/2012 are the prime seasons to win the superbowl. Add another stud CB via draft, a DE, perhaps a NT…the team is stacked.

"I will speak at times, when it's necessary, but I don't believe in talking just because you can." - P-52
Let's talk on Twitter

by Tre9er on Jun 29, 2010 7:18 AM PDT reply actions  

THE FACTS WOULD SEEM TO SAY OTHERWISE ...

Looking at the average age of CURRENT NFL rosters, youngest to oldest:

1. Considering the whole roster, the 49ers rank #10 — Houston is the youngest (25.9 years) versus 26.9 for the Niners. Only one year of difference.

2. Considering the offensive roster only, the 49ers rank #8 — Philadelphia is the youngest (26.1 years) versus 26.5 for the Niners.

3. Considering the defensive roster only, the 49ers rank #14 — Houston is the youngest (25.3 years) versus 27.2 for the Niners.

So, yes, on average the defense is longer in the tooth than the offense. The important questions are (1) who are the guys that we lose first? and (2) how soon?

On OFFENSE: One starter is at least 30 — Norris (32), and he may not make the 53-man roster this year. One starter is older than 28 — Heitmann (30). He has several years left. Backups older than 28 are Carr (30), Wragge (30), and Sims (35). Not to worry.

On DEFENSE: One starter is at least 30 — Spikes (33). Four starters are older than 28 — Clements (30), Franklin (29), Lewis (30), and Justin Smith (30). Backups older than 28 are Evans (30), James (31), and Wilhelm (29).

On SPECIAL TEAMS: Nedney (37) and Jennings (33).

My conclusions:
1. On offense, we know that Norris will be gone soon (maybe this year) and I think that we know where his replacement will come from. Heitmann would probably be next, although not soon, and I believe that we have him covered.

2. On defense, Bowman will replace Spikes eventually, and Mays will replace Lewis.

3. We need to get younger at (a) CB, (b) NT/DE, and © kicker. THIS IS ABSOLUTELY NO SURPRISE! I think that we all know that CB and DL are our 2011 draft priorities. Also, I am in favor of drafting Kai Forbath (kicker at UCLA) is the 3rd round next year — the only problem is he may very well not last until the 3rd round. Hopefully Balmer, RJF and Adams will buffer the need until draftees can develop.

4. We will make the playoff this year; maybe to the NFC championship game but not beyond; if this year’s rookie crop develop quickly, I fully expect us to be contenders (top 4 teams) for several years to come, maybe longer if we continue to draft and develop well.

by 49erFanSince1950 on Jun 30, 2010 7:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

My conclusions:

1. On offense, we know that Norris will be gone soon (maybe this year) and I think that we know where his replacement will come from. Heitmann would probably be next, although not soon, and I believe that we have him covered.

Yup. Plenty of options for FB. If Norris makes the roster for 2010 I think he’ll be gone no later than the 2011 season.

2. On defense, Bowman will replace Spikes eventually, and Mays will replace Lewis.

Yup.

3. We need to get younger at (a) CB, (b) NT/DE, and © kicker. THIS IS ABSOLUTELY NO SURPRISE! I think that we all know that CB and DL are our 2011 draft priorities. Also, I am in favor of drafting Kai Forbath (kicker at UCLA) is the 3rd round next year — the only problem is he may very well not last until the 3rd round. Hopefully Balmer, RJF and Adams will buffer the need until draftees can develop.

Nice analysis here. The thing about all three of those positions is that players can play in them longer than average. I think Nedney will play until he’s 40 (another 3 years). I think 2010 is Franklin’s last season as a Niner. Hopefully RFJ sees lots of playing time this season and can step it up. CB is the big priority, and I think we should address those early in the 2011 draft.

4. We will make the playoff this year; maybe to the NFC championship game but not beyond; if this year’s rookie crop develop quickly, I fully expect us to be contenders (top 4 teams) for several years to come, maybe longer if we continue to draft and develop well.

If we can win one playoff game I’ll be happy. I don’t think we’ll make it to the NFC championship game, but crazier things have happened.

Logic merely enables one to be wrong with authority

by smileyman on Jun 30, 2010 8:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

Also

let’s all remember the things we say this off-season (myself included) once the season starts so that we don’t fall into the homeristic trap of making excuses. Other than bad officiating, bad luck, etc. there is no real reason we shouldn’t be explosive on offense and dominating on defense.

"I will speak at times, when it's necessary, but I don't believe in talking just because you can." - P-52
Let's talk on Twitter

by Tre9er on Jun 29, 2010 7:20 AM PDT reply actions  

and really

we should be good enough to overcome those sorts of things (bad calls, bad luck, etc)

"I will speak at times, when it's necessary, but I don't believe in talking just because you can." - P-52
Let's talk on Twitter

by Tre9er on Jun 29, 2010 7:21 AM PDT up reply actions  

Agree 1000

This team is set to do some big things come next season. The Offense is gonna be scary good and the D is gonna take a big step forward from where we were last year.

by EcERyda69 on Jun 29, 2010 9:40 AM PDT up reply actions  

new identity

when the ‘01 Niners returned to the playoffs after a couple of down seasons, we still had some lingering momentum from our last super bowl team…guys like Bryant Young and Dana Stubblefield were still here…TO was the heir apparent and Jeff Garcia seemed to be a bit like Steve Young (in some ways). it was our last chance to cling to the glory that was our storied franchise. i had hope for a resurgence, but we didn’t seem to have winners on our roster….winners when it mattered.

this year, we have no connection to those years (Brian Jennings?), it’s a fresh team with some real intriguing pieces. Willis is clearly the face of the team, and we’ve also got some guys like VD and Crabtree to be key figures in the red and gold. This year is so important – because for the first time we have a clear shot at being in the playoffs, and a real chance to see how these guys play in the big games. if we’re to see the glory that we saw years before, we’ll need to see big plays in the big games from our big names. so, yea, this year’s pretty important.

by t p on Jun 29, 2010 10:10 AM PDT reply actions   1 recs

Well said t p.

+1

I can't wait for Mango's sig to say "0 days to go".

by madmatt on Jun 29, 2010 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

Quick question ...

… which is work-related for a change. Can someone remind me what the situation is with Vernon Davis’ contract. How long is he contracted for, did he ever get an offer? What’s happening at the moment? Thanks.

LondonNiner - member of the legendary David Carr thread, 6 March 2010.

by LondonNiner on Jun 29, 2010 10:33 AM PDT reply actions  

Davis

He’s signed through this season. I’d imagine both sides are working on a deal. Hopefully they’ll get something done before the end of training camp.

by David Fucillo on Jun 29, 2010 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions  

Thanks Fooch

LondonNiner - member of the legendary David Carr thread, 6 March 2010.

by LondonNiner on Jun 29, 2010 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions  

2010 Expectations

I expect us to make the playoffs. Hopefully win the division (don’t see why we wouldn’t) In the playoffs anything is possible. I don’y know about the rest of you but this team reminds me of the 1981 Superbowl Cinderella team (minus Joe Montana) I think we have the mindset, very strong defense and character to persevere. Go Niners!!!

by 49erbutcher on Jun 29, 2010 10:45 AM PDT reply actions  

Irrational support of Thomas Clayton and Kory Sheets?

Fooch, if I had a glove on I would take it off and slap you with it. So there.

And then God created Saturn... and he liked it, so he put a ring on it.
Twitter me and what not.

by James Brady on Jun 29, 2010 12:33 PM PDT reply actions  

irrational

Maybe I should have included Jay Moore as well to even things out?

by David Fucillo on Jun 29, 2010 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

after all

a career backup is his hero…

"I will speak at times, when it's necessary, but I don't believe in talking just because you can." - P-52
Let's talk on Twitter

by Tre9er on Jun 29, 2010 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ahaha.

I was researching some stuff on Zeigler from our past articles on NN and got into articles from previous roster projections, you mentioned Jay Moore quite a bit.

And then God created Saturn... and he liked it, so he put a ring on it.
Twitter me and what not.

by James Brady on Jun 29, 2010 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

I believe that 2010 is one of the most important in Niner History.

This team as has been mentioned, has not been to the playoffs since 2002. I went to that game against the Giants, and while the finish was exciting (when Jeff Garcia led the team back from a 24-point deficit to win 39-38 against the New York Giants), that was the end of the line for the Garcia/T.O./Mariucci combination, and the last time the Niners tasted victory in the playoffs. If you could call that game a victory. More like a minor miracle/officiating disaster. That game was a major example when instant replay was debated. I think all even minded Niners fans could say that the tackle eligible being tackled was the turning point in that game and the Refs sure did the Niners a big favor in that game. Maybe even several. But it was my first ever playoff game, so for me it was still great! My wife and I spent 2 nights in San Fran and it was just a great time all around.

But back to football. The Mike Singletary 2010 Niners are a very good squad indeed. They went 8-8 last year, and despite feasting on bad teams the final few games to get to 8-8, it was still a major improvement over the previous year. The Defense has been built from the creative minds of Greg Manuski and Mike Singletary to be a Linebacker centric Defense with arguably the best linebacker in all of football Patrick Willis anchoring the middle and calling the plays. The defense has steadily improved to be one of the better defenses in all of football. This year with the addition of some help in the secondary, and the slow improvement in our pass rush, the Niners defense could quite easily be a top 5, or even top 3 defense in the entire NFL.

Defense in not a problem on the Niners. The Offense however has been a major disappointment over the last few years. Smith was not a good choice, and even though they continue to try and prove that Smith is a good QB, his results have been mixed to say the least. This is the year that Alex Smith needs to either succeed or retire. He has had ample chances to prove what he has to offer. Yes, he has had a terrible offensive line and no weapons to throw the ball to over that span of time, but that is not the case now. He has an improved offensive line and a group of receivers who should be able to get open and receive the ball. Smith needs to step up and start making some passes. If the offensive line gives him time, he needs to make completions. He has run out of excuses. It is put up or shut up year for Smith. This is the last year on his contract, and if he doesn’t show the team something this year, he wont be around next season. Carr isn’t the long term answer either so the Niners will be looking QB in the draft next season if Smith doesn’t succeed. I am pulling for Smith, and I think physically he has what it takes. It is the mental aspect that seems to be lacking. He is a smart kid too from all reports. He just hasn’t proven very “Football” smart. So if the Niners are able to win the West, go 10-6 or 11-5, make the playoffs, and make some noise, Smith may get another contract. But really, that is where the expectations are for this team. I don’t believe anyone thinks this is a SB ready team by FAR, but they are a playoff team in a weak NFC West. So lets hope they make the playoffs and Smith finally proves his worth. GO NINERS !!!

Another year, another chance to hope for the team !!

by FaStRmAn on Jun 29, 2010 1:16 PM PDT reply actions  

Well, when you've been the dynasty of the 80's, the acceptable standard has been set.

That Ray Ratto has been sending a message that he isn’t going to write anything nice about the 49ers until they get back to the superbowl and I’m tired of reading his arrogance.

The style has been set, the talent has been acquired, the excuses have been addressed and the snot looks like it will fly. It’s the most important season because it will determine if we stay the course or not. Excuses won’t work for anybody this year. Does Sing have a winning vision? Is Alex a franchise QB? Are we better without a GM? Has management put their money in the right places? ARE WE THERE YET? Winning means yes – mediocrity means no.

by DeathValleyCarl on Jun 29, 2010 1:34 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

Great Expectations because of new identity

What makes this year’s expectations different is the force of Singletary defining the new identity of the 49ers. As T P said above, there is no connection to the old. We meandered our way through the last decade like a teenager trying various things to figure out who he or she is, and have finally emerged as a whole new team with an extremely solid identity.

Yep, it’s make or break time.

by McTee on Jun 29, 2010 1:43 PM PDT reply actions  

There is no doubt

this is the most important season in recent memory. Smith had his future and the future of the Niners’ in his hands and he has to make his mind up and walk through the door of oppurtunity. If he doesn’t it will be devestating no doubt about it but last year he made great strides when no one thought he could and that is good but he will have to capitalize on the talent around him. If he doesn’t have a good year that means we will have to get another QB and it will be just a mess in my opinion. It will set us back 2 to 3yrs. If Smith succeeds we will be right on time and will compete on the big time stage which will be the playoffs

Beat Em To The Punch - Bill Walsh

by Desi on Jun 29, 2010 5:35 PM PDT reply actions  

seems appropriate something i wrote before superbowl versus miami

The Super Bowl is very near
At Stanford stadium it’ll be this year.
We’ll watch the Dolphins do their tricks
but always with them will be Lott and Hicks.

The dolphis have swam on Marino’s arm
And very few, have done him harm.
But on Marino’s arm they also can fail
And that is where we’ll tell the tale.

Marino and Duper will not connect
the Niner defense is raising heck.
Clayton will do better but only by one
the Niner defense will have their fun.

Tyler will run for 200 yards
Because of a backfield bull of guards.
Montana will throw for 200 more
And the fans will watch as they roll up the score.

After one quarter is said and done
Miame 7, 49ers 21.
At the half there ain’t no doubt.
The Dophins, have been caged, and it’s a route.

If you want to know the final score.
49ers 45 and Miami could get no more.

by libra45 on Jun 29, 2010 10:11 PM PDT reply actions  

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