The Stephen Strasburg effect and the NFL
by David Fucillo on Jun 8, 2010 3:00 PM PDT
in San Francisco 49ers News
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PrintIn about an hour, Washington Nationals pitching prospect Stephen Strasburg will take the mound against the Pittsburgh Pirates for his first career start. To call Strasburg a "prospect" is to not do him justice. If you're not a baseball fan, or just haven't heard of Stephen Strasburg, he is arguably the most hyped prospect in baseball history. Baseball has had its fair share of hyped prospects, but the ability of Strasburg combined with his development in the Internet era has him as hyped as any athlete in recent memory.
Why am I bringing this up on a football site? Well, the hype of Strasburg had me comparing it to #1 overall picks in the NFL. In running through the history of the #1 pick of the NFL Draft, there have certainly been some phenoms out there. The most recent is probably Michael Vick back in 2001. Prior to that, you'd probably have to go with Bo Jackson. There have been plenty of great prospects in between those two, but how many get that "phenom" status? Vick was expected to revolutionize the QB position, while Bo Jackson was an athletic freak of nature.
Nonetheless, it seems like the phenom label is most often applied in sports other than football. Football has "freaks" (see Randy Moss and Jevon Kearse), but not quite phenoms. The phenom label seems to be used more when dealing with sports that draft especially young players (baseball and basketball), or individual sports where age isn't much of an issue (golf and some Olympic sports).
I wonder how much of that has to do with the extensive television coverage of college football? While the coverage enables additional hype for players, when you don't get to see the player all that frequently, it seems like phenom status builds up even more. Imagine, for example, if we had very little footage of Michael Crabtree during his time at Texas Tech? In his freshman season, Crabtree caught 134 passes and 22 touchdowns. The extra coverage allowed people to break down weaknesses in his game and with that, his draft stock came down a bit.
I'm not saying Crabtree would have gotten the Strasburg treatment, but I wonder how much of the sort of "Paul Bunyan" treatment prior to his being drafted came from the fact that it's pretty hard to catch college baseball games on television. Again, prospects in every sport get hyped to a crazy degree, but something about baseball "phenoms" seems different to me. Feel free to disagree with me.
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Agreed
I’ve always believed baseball “prospects” (Jason Heyward of the Braves also had crazy hype from the press before the baseball season started) receive crazy hype because they’re mysterious. We know about Football and Basketball prospects because they play in college where you can watch the majority of their games. Baseball prospects come out of the woodwork.
Take the Giants for example. In today’s baseball draft, the Giants drafted two Community College prospects. College baseball is barely broadcast, let alone JUCO ball. Then there are also players signed from foreign countries and players taken out of high school. Being mysterious gives these guys hype.
"Even the Swedes are getting mad."-Randy Hahn
"It's very cozy in the sin bin."-Randy Hahn
It's not a "mystery" thing
As a die hard baseball fan, I can tell you Strausburg is the definition of “phenom”. Jason Heyward isn’t even in his solar system. It’s not becuase he wasn’t heard of on a national basis. It’s because he really is that unbelievably good.
Anybody else see his DEBUT? First game.
7 innings pitched, 14 strikeouts, no walks, and he only threw about 94 pitches. And he was clocked at 98 mph or faster numerous times. Trust me, it didn’t matter he was only seen by live crowds or if he got more TV time that Favre and Tebow. That kid is a once in a generation kind of talent.
"Bears are crazy, Willie. They'll bite your head off if you're wearing steak on it."
by Blank x2 on Jun 9, 2010 8:24 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Also
with such an expanisve minor leauge system even all star players usually spend some time in AA or AAA. But NFL and NBA their impact is felt immidatley Baseball such as strausburg are phenoms because of how unnatural it is to shoot up to the Big Leagues. Sorry for misspellings.
Agreed, the idea of a prospect playing and probably excelling in the big leagues in the year after he was drafted is pretty much unheard of. If a top 10 pick in the NBA or NFL draft aren’t playing in their respective leagues immediately, they’re almost always considered a bust. Buster Posey was one of the best prospects in all of baseball and he still spent a couple years toiling in the minors before finally now getting a spot in the Giants line up. Jason Heyward was drafted in 2007. An MLB-ready pitching prospect is pretty much unheard of. When you account for the fact that some guys are drafted straight out of high school, the difference in talent level between the organization they are drafted out of and the big leagues is astronomical. There’s a reason that there are so many rounds to the MLB draft, it’s because chances are that you won’t get an MLB regular out of pick in even the latter half of the 1st round. (Their international signing system complicates things even more. The draft only applies to N. American prospects, anyone can sign any fellow playing in other countries.)
In this respect, I actually prefer the NHL and MLB development system where you get to watch prospects develop. The difficulty of gauging MLB talent and the resulting gigantic prospect pool can make it burdensome at times, but I personally like rooting for my teams’ prospects as they develop in the minor leagues. Part of the issue with the MLB is that all good high school prospects are almost always drafted, with the result being a watered down college system that is probably worse than AA ball.
I honestly think that the NHL despite many of their other business follies, has the best system here. In the NHL, teams draft players and retain their rights for a certain amount of time depending on what organization they are playing with. Most NHL prospects play in the CHL (Canadian junior hockey). Skaters start are drafted into the CHL (an organization independent from the NHL that consists of three geographically separated leagues) by the at the age of 16 and are drafted in the year in which they turn 18 by a specific date. Teams then hold the exclusive rights to signing the player for two years. (Typically by then they are no longer eligible to play in the CHL, as each team in that league is only allowed to have two twenty year old players and none older than that.) If the player has not turned 20 by the time those two years are up, he can re-enter the draft. CHL players that have not been drafted at the age of 18 can be drafted in any subsequent year until they turn 20. If the player is drafted out of a lower tier league like the USHL with the expectation that they will be playing NCAA hockey, the teams that drafted him hold the player’s rights until such time he chooses to leave school, at which time the drafting team has 30 days to sign the player to a contract. Teams hold the rights to players in foreign leagues (which are the best developed in the world when compared to equivalent MLB and NBA leagues), indefinitely if there is no transfer agreement between that foreign league and the NHL and two years otherwise. Since everyone is drafted at the same age and can continue to play for their team, the CHL and NCAA hockey do not get watered down like NCAA baseball which has to contend with losing players to the MLB draft, and allows teams to scout players ahead of time and have a decent idea of which players will actually turn out to be servicable NHLers. It certainly is not as exact as the NFL and NBA where the concentration of talent in college football in the case of the NFL and the small roster size of the NBA allow one to expect starting players out of the top 60 picks or so, but it does allow for one to follow prospects as they develop and get excited about top picks. (The leading goal scorer in the NHL this year was Steven Stamkos, the 1st overall pick in 2008, the 2nd overall pick in 2008 is Drew Doughty who has been voted as one of the top 3 defensemen in the league, the 1st overall pick in 2007 is Patrick Kane, who’s an integral part of the Blackhawks, who are playing for the Stanley Cup right now, the 2nd overall pick in 2006 was Jordan Staal, who won the Stanley Cup last year, the 3rd overall pick was Nicklas Backstrom, who was 4th in scoring, 4th overall was Toews, who will almost definitely be the playoff MVP if the Blackhawks win the cup, Sidney Crosby was 1st in 2005, and Ovechkin was 1st in 2004. My point here is that the NHL draft allows fans to look forward to getting superstars in the draft, and still has enough depth to get guys like Joe Pavelski who was one of the best players on the Sharks in the playoffs in the 7th round of the draft.)
Wow, that’s a giant wall of text.
My main point is that I feel drafts work best when they allow for both immediate superstardom and development within an organization. I feel as though leagues would benefit from having a draft in which every player regardless of origin becomes eligible at a certain age for the draft, and then depending on the organization they are drafted out of, teams have a certain amount of time in which they hold the exclusive rights to that player.
This is where baseball gets it wrong (ok, one of the many reasons). All 32 1st round NFL draft picks are hyped to sell each season. In baseball these guys go down to the minors long enough for everyone to forget and baseball hardly ever sells a ticket when they call these guys up to the pros. Strasburg is in rarefied air because he is drawing sales in his debut. Lets be honest, one the reason he’s premier has been so fueled is the Nationals have been so atrociously bad. There are fans are excited to see an actual baseball player on their roster and their has been nothing to discuss about their roster in years.
BTW
This is also my argument as to why NBA ought to require some college prior to entering the pros. The Michael Crabtree example is right on point. The college game built Crabtree’s reputation so when he did enter the NFL the league could actually market and sell his name . . . hence pay for the huge contract they gave him. Regardless whether Crabtree turns out to be a good pro player or not he fueled sales and helped the bottom line. Outside Lebron James a kid from H.S. is hardly ever going to generate that kind of buzz to justify the rookie contract. If he turns out to be a great player the team/league will make the money back later on but if he stinks it’s a total loss of revenue. Adam Morrison made the league a bucket of money based solely on his college following and he’s awful pro basketball player.
Baseball doesn't make their money off hyped rookies.
Baseball makes their money off of well known All-Stars. Most draftees in baseball aren’t ready for the big leagues and still have some development and growth to do. Baseball is a business— if they thought bringing a guy up to the majors right away was the most financially profitable thing to do, they’d do it. They don’t because they want to develop an All-Star that they can market to their fans.
Strasburg is special. I’d argue that him being on the Nationals doesn’t help him at all as a prospect. The Yankees and Red Sox prospects are always over hyped and often don’t live up to the expectations because of all the media attention they receive. You often won’t hear too much about a bad team’s prospects unless they’ve reached the level that Strasburg has.
Other kids may be sayin' hi-ho, but The Gooch just says yo.
That's my point . . . they can't
They can’t make money off rookies. In fact, they severed off that arm of revenue an ancient time ago. Colleges cannot build an interest or following with baseball. One main reason is MLB rips the talent out of H.S. away from colleges. What does MLB get in return? They get to pay for the development of prospects out of their own pocket and are unable to monetize their draft, gee great business plan . . .
You know why MLB sells All-Stars cause it’s the only thing they have to sell. They cannot even breathe life into their own failing franchises. In contrast, the St. Louis Rams were horrible but have a shiny new QB to immediately generate interest and keep their revenue stream going. If Bradford fails the draft will bring the Rams new prospect they can immediately sell next season. Best yet, everyone knows that prospect because he built a following and reputation in college, which the NFL didn’t pay a dime to develop but will immediately monetize.
I see your point.
Minor leaguers don’t get paid that much, and can be easily supported by their parent club (and the minor league team itself does make money). But colleges would be helped out if all the toolsy players didn’t get drafted out of H.S. right away, and they would be a lot closer to the big leagues. They’d still need minor leagues, but perhaps not six different levels.
Other kids may be sayin' hi-ho, but The Gooch just says yo.
If Strausburg did get drafted by the Red Sox or Yanks
He would still be in the bigs about now. Has NOTHING to do with the nationals. There isn’t a team in MLB he could not be a top two starter for right now. I can’t think of a team that has two pitchers better than him, and most don’t have one.
"Bears are crazy, Willie. They'll bite your head off if you're wearing steak on it."
by Blank x2 on Jun 9, 2010 8:29 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Washington atrociously bad???
They’re 6 games out of first place with 103 games left to play in the season. They’re also only 3 games under .500. One good weekend and they’re even. How is that atrociously bad? I wouldn’t say they’re good but atrociously bad is not the case.
by Florida Johnny on Jun 9, 2010 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions
That's not going to last.
But they have a really good chance of winning once out of every five days now.
Other kids may be sayin' hi-ho, but The Gooch just says yo.
Nationals
Agree. They’re not particularly good, but they’re definitely not atrociously bad. And they’re really building from within, as opposed to loading up on a ton of free agents. They’ve got guys like Adam Dunn and Ivan Rodriguez, but mostly it’s all youth. The addition of Bryce Harper in the draft should be a big step forward if he doesn’t screw up. I’d say next year they’ll be in the wildcard race, 2012 they could be a team to beat in the East. Still early, but they’re on the right track. They’re sort of going with the Devil Rays plan.
by David Fucillo on Jun 9, 2010 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions
Strasburg
I’m watching the game right now, and even though it is just the Pirates, Strasburg is just filthy. 6 Ks through 3 innings. He gave up a hit and was getting to 2-0 and 3-0 counts early, but he seems to have settled down. Just ridiculous.
You should be watching the Giants!
"Even the Swedes are getting mad."-Randy Hahn
"It's very cozy in the sin bin."-Randy Hahn
Nationals
To be perfectly honest….my National League team (if that’s allowed) is the Nationals. I went to high school in Northern Virginia and college in Washington, DC. My senior year of college (2000-2001) for one of my business classes I actually wrote a business plan of sorts about moving the Expos to Washington, DC.
by David Fucillo on Jun 8, 2010 5:30 PM PDT up reply actions
That's OK
But it must be pretty painful to cheer for two very poor franchises at the same time no?
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
"I'm just like you, but 10 times better"
by SportsChicken on Jun 8, 2010 8:14 PM PDT up reply actions
49ers
I grew up in Las Vegas in the 80s. Didn’t have a team there and the 49ers were the best team at the time (and I sure wasn’t gonna be a Rams fan). I’ve been a 49ers fan ever since.
by David Fucillo on Jun 8, 2010 11:35 PM PDT up reply actions
Manning
He was expected to be very good, but I wouldn’t have labeled him a “phenom.” There’s a lot of players expected to be great, but to me, a phenom is someone considered a sort of athlete that transcends the game itself.
by David Fucillo on Jun 9, 2010 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions
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