FanPost

State of the Draft Pick Signings - and the Cost of Iupati, Davis, and Mays

In his morning post about Nate Byham, Fooch got us up-to-date on the 49er draft signings thus far.  A few weeks ago, I posted a question about where to find a tracker for draft signings.  Several folks responded and provided me with resources to go check out.

We're only weeks away from the start of training camp, so I thought I would bring a quick update on the status of the 2010 Draft rosters....

As of today, (actually, 5:19pm last night) 133 of 255 draftees have signed contracts with their teams.  That means we're over 1/2 way and things are about to get really interesting - especially considering that we have 2 first rounders of our own to think about!

After the jump, I'll get into more specifics.

As is stands, the highest signed draft pick at this point is Vladimir Ducasse, OT who was the 61st overall pick (bottom of 2nd round for those bad at math) of the 2010 draft.  He signed his $3.25 million 4-year contract with the NY Jets on July 7th.  Based on his deal, and comparing it to the 2009 salary at his draft position, we've seen a 4.3% increase in salaries.  More about this and some speculation in a minute.

The next highest draftee who has signed is pick #65, Jerome Murphy (CB - St. Louis), who signed for 4 years at $2.727million.  Comparing that with 2009, we see only a 2.71% increase at this draft slot.

The two lowest draftees to sign are 2.56% and 50.8% higher than last year's bottom two.  Playing interpolation, a flat average of these numbers is 15.09%.  Realistically, I think it unlikely that we'll see that type of salary inflation across the spectrum, but it is not unlikely in the upper end where we have 2 first and 1 2nd rounder...

Fortunately, all of those were 4-year deals so it was easy to compare them.  When you get to last year's first round picks, we get some diversion, since most were 5 and 6 year deals.  Using the 15.09% increase over 2009, we arrive at:

  • Number 11 overall, Anthony Davis - $28.312 million over 5 years (approx $5.66mill/yr) with $16.39million guaranteed
  • EDITED: Number 17 overall, Mike Iupati - $41.43 million over 5 years (approx $8.286 mill/yr) with $11.79 million guaranteed. (#17 in 2009 was a QB which threw this WAY off - Using the method that ericalancanty posted in comments below, the $16 and #18 picks last year are a DE (#18 @ $15.5mm) and a LB (#16 @ $17.95mm).

    Playing with that math, you end up with an average of $16.73mm. Or, roughly, $19.25mm (roughly $3.85million/yr) for Iupati, when adding the 15.09% inflation seen between other slots.

  • Number 49 overall, Taylor Mays - $4.24 million over 4 years (approx. $1.06mill/yr) with $2.23 mill guaranteed.

Doing the research, I was intrigued to see that last year's slotting didn't always turn out with the higher pick getting the most total money, but it seeemed to be a blend between total and guaranteed monies...

Anyway, this is the current state of the rookie class.  Hope folks find it useful.  Feel free to comment, add color, and help educate me (and others) about the slotting system etc....

P.S.  Just for fun - assuming the same 15.09% inflation rate - puts #1 pick Sam Bradford landing somewhere around $82.86 million over 6 years with $47.99 mill guaranteed.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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