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Football Outsiders: 49ers team health in 2010

Given how rough and tumble the NFL can be, one of the more intriguing areas of the annual Football Outsiders Almanac is their discussion of team health. They believe that injuries are responsible for 25 percent of the year-to-year change in a team's wins and think sleepers can often be discovered by looking at recent seasons and how injuries have affected the team.

FO ranks teams according to Adjusted Games Lost (AGL) total from 2007-2009. Additionally they provide the 2009 AGL, and and the expected health trend in 2010. The 49ers finished 8th among all teams in AGL from 2007-2009, and was ninth in 2009 alone. FO trends the 49ers as improving, stating that the training staff might have had the best year in the NFL when it came to borderline injuries:

Virtually all of their Adjusted Games Lost came from three traumatic injuries: Nate Clements' fractured shoulder blade, Walt Harris' torn ACL, and Joe Staley's knee sprain. Their other starters missed only four combined games. That number should rise in 2010, but the uncontrollable injury count should decline some, which could see them push up towards the healthiest teams in the league.

The numbers would seem to add up to a healthier year. Of course, it seems fairly difficult to predict major injuries like ACL tores or major broken bones. The Almanac states that the vast majority of players and teams have roughly similar injury projection. I'm guessing that is based on research they've done with player injuries.

Whatever the case, it'd certainly be helpful if the 49ers could stay healthy this year. Little bumps and bruises can be dealt with, but it's the bigger injuries (Joe Staley's in particular) that can be a problem. Of course, even with the Staley injury, we can't forget that Barry Sims filled in quite well for Big Joe. So, even though you'd like to stay healthy, having quality depth is arguably just as important, if not more so.

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coach carlisle is good

it has to be tough to stay healthy and play singletary football. i think, just preparing to play for the samurai is a good head start toward preparing for an nfl season. with a good s&c coach, we stand to limit a lot of the nagging injuries.

note to coach: if you don’t want to lose gore for any length of time, don’t run him into 9 man fronts.

by t p on Jul 16, 2010 10:40 AM PDT reply actions  

Where does the nutcracker drill figure into this calculation?

Nutcracker-Adjusted Games Lost

Coach Boone: And who's team is this, Gary? Is this your team? Or is this your daddy's team?
Bertier: Yours.
Coach Boone: Now get on the bus. Put on your jacket first and then get on the bus.

by Amigo on Jul 16, 2010 11:04 AM PDT reply actions  

One wonders

What kind of difference would Brandon Jones or Thomas Clayton have made if they had been healthy?

Coach Boone: And who's team is this, Gary? Is this your team? Or is this your daddy's team?
Bertier: Yours.
Coach Boone: Now get on the bus. Put on your jacket first and then get on the bus.

by Amigo on Jul 16, 2010 11:13 AM PDT reply actions  

Brandon Jones played in 8 game last year

and didn’t make a spot of difference in any of those games.

Logic merely enables one to be wrong with authority

by smileyman on Jul 16, 2010 2:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

Are they still forgetting to factor in player age to their injury projections?

by bignerd on Jul 17, 2010 12:06 PM PDT reply actions  

The Problem with depth is that no one really has it anymore

Depth back in the days of Eddie D was a key ingredient to the winning ways of the Niners teams of the 80’s. They always seemed to have someone who could step right in when there was an injury. Nowadays with salary caps and the increase in teams diluting the pool of available talent, quality depth is a luxury that almost no team can afford. To have a good player to backup your starters is about the best you can do, because if you have a starting quality player they are either starting or other teams are looking to acquire them to start on their team. You just dont see a lot of quality players who have starting potential sitting on the bench waiting for their chance to come in and play. So really, it all boils down to not getting the major injuries and doing the best you can to patch the holes created by major injuries. There is no way to forecast catastrophic injuries. Generally every team has one or two because of the violent nature of the sport. Losing Joe Staley really hurt the Niners last season, and potentially kept the Niners out of the playoffs. Joe’s backup did an admirable job, but there is a reason backups are not starters. So when you have your front line guy go down, it is difficult to continue to compete and have the same flexibility and play calling ability you have with your starters. And if you have a major player go down who makes the calls for that unit, it can really be a crippling event. The Niners have depth as good as any team in the NFC West, but any major injuries will cause major disruption to their playoff chances. I believe the Niners have a playoff caliber team on paper. If the rookie linemen are able to get up to speed and start the regular season, the Niners will have veteran depth to step in if either falters or gets injured. That isn’t the case for other teams in the West. I am excited to see the Niners new look offensive line and I hope that the rookies are able to contribute relatively soon seeing as they are 1st round draft picks. New Offensive line coaches Mike Solari and Ray Brown must be excited with the level of talent they have to work with when you include the rookies and the veterans the Niners have on the offensive line. If Alex Smith is given time to throw the ball, he will make plays. Smith has more and better weapons this year than he has ever had. Eventually the rookie linemen will get the hang of pass protection and the Niners OL could be pivotal in the success of the team. Gore will have more holes, Smith more time, and the team more points hopefully.

Another year, another chance to hope for the team !!

by FaStRmAn on Jul 17, 2010 4:22 PM PDT reply actions  

Easy on my eyes, please.

I have 71-year-old eyes and bifocal glasses. Paragraphs separated by blank lines would be greatly appreciated.

by CorneliusJ on Jul 18, 2010 5:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

Mine are a bit younger than yours but...

I do agree..readability is helped a lot by formatting.

by ChesapeakeBay9er on Jul 18, 2010 7:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

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