Whats Your Confidence Level For Michael Crabtree?
by James Brady on Jul 18, 2010 11:00 AM PDT
in San Francisco 49ers News
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PrintSo rounding out the wide receivers who matter (the starters, in other words) is Michael Crabtree. Yesterday, we voted on Ted Ginn Jr., the highest option was medium. One of the first polls that wasn't rated mostly in the "high" or "very high".
But now we come to Michael Crabtree, the 49ers number one receiver and potential top receiving threat on the team (potentially behind Vernon Davis).We all know what happened with the contract situation and we all had our negative thoughts about the kid... before he took the field after missing the first five games.
Once he got out there, he quickly showed everyone why he was drafted where he was. He picked up the playbook ridiculously fast and went for 625 yards on 48 receptions with two touchdowns with only 11 games and limited knowledge of the playbook. He showed a great ability to go up and get the ball over a defender and proved a lot of doubters wrong when it came to his speed.
Extrapolated through sixteen games, Crabtree's numbers are definitely up there and where you'd want them with his draft status. With a full offseason to his credit and stability at every position - is Michael Crabtree set to have himself a pro bowl year? Make the jump so I can break down the voting criteria.
Very High: Most definitely a 1000 yard season, one of the better receivers in the league and a clear number one option without the tendency to drop the ball. He's clutch and most definitely demands coverage from an opposing team's number one cornerback. Somewhere around 7 touchdowns. Plays pro bowl football.
High: Has a highly productive season in either yards or touchdowns, but not both. He can get 1000 yards, but only snag 3 to 4 touchdowns. He's still the go-to guy, but you know. The stuff of pro bowl alternates.
Medium: Not pro bowl football, probably not 1000 yards, and isn't as dominating as we might like. He'll have some really good games, but he'll have some mad ones too. Just not all that "dominating" as we might like. Will still be a good player, doesn't make the 49ers think they need to draft a new number one receiver.
Low: Obviously is in over his head. Just doesn't stack up well against the first corner on most teams. Has a tendency to drop the football or not even fight for it. The team wonders what they should do at the receiver position, not necessarily needing to draft one in the first round in 2011, but the position remains one to be improved.
Very Low: Billy Bajema if he were a wide receiver going on a hail mary route ever playl.
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I don't see any reason why Crabtree won't have a really good season
The world's biggest BCS hater and damn proud of it!
I contend
That “Very Low” should read: DHB
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
"I'm just like you, but 10 times better"
And I contend...
…that I never make mistakes ever and everything I do is flawless and that you should SHUT YOUR MOUTH!
Seriously I’m just kidding and now I feel dumb for not automatically thinking of DHB.
And then God created Saturn... and he liked it, so he put a ring on it.
Twitter me and what not.
by James Brady on Jul 18, 2010 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Ha!
My mouth was already shut!
I don’t read my comments aloud as I type them, so there.
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
"I'm just like you, but 10 times better"
by SportsChicken on Jul 18, 2010 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions
It's ok not even Jamarcus Russell...
automatically thought of DHB.
by ChesapeakeBay9er on Jul 18, 2010 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Well...
He did eventually think of DHB, it was just a very slow thought… what with that purple drank in his hand.
Trust me, learning english isn’t a waste of time. It is actually sort of useful.
-randolphforpresident
by Dubs fan in Boston on Jul 19, 2010 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions
If Crabtree doesn't get at least 1000 yards I'll be shocked
I wouldn’t be surprised to see him grab 1200. If he gets no better and if our offense stays exactly the same, based on his numbers from last year he’ll have just over 900 yards. It’s not hard to assume he’ll improve by at least 10% from last year, plus we’ll have a better offensive line and our QB will also be improved.
Logic merely enables one to be wrong with authority
Exactly right
If you extrapolate his numbers he would have had 70 rec for 909 yards. Add in a full off-season of work with the starting QB and the fact that defenses will have to account for VD, and I could easily see him doubling his numbers. That would be 96 rec for 1250 yards.
by mr. instigator on Jul 19, 2010 8:50 AM PDT up reply actions
The only things that would keep him from getting over 1000 yds would be....
A) an injury
B) the offense having too many options to give the ball to
More options
means we won’t go 3 and out as often giving him more catches over a longer period of time.
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Jul 18, 2010 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions
By the way
how’s Dixon at catching out of the back field? I’m hoping that Rathman hangs on his ass and helps him to work on his straight run and makes sure he doesn’t lose any of the outside run he had. I think he can be a good soldier for the team.
by ChesapeakeBay9er on Jul 18, 2010 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions
The latter is what I'm thinking..
actually has a good chance to hold him back a bit from that 1K mark. I mean you have Gore and VD and Morgan and Ginn and Williams and Dixon etc that are going to get the ball. And that I feel should be the tactic used. I mean look at when the Pats were winning those Superbowls, part of it was that the ball was spread around a good bit so it wasn’t known for sure who would be the likely target. I mean a team where it’s “Toss to Crabs boom! Toss to Crabs Boom! Toss to Crabs boom!” is not going to do it. Ya gotta switch it up a bit. And with this good but varied offense we can do that. Just on occassion toss it to like Byham for a few of such. Just keep it so the D is not sure who is gonna get the ball next and how. I hope Jimmy Joe Billy Bob is up for it (and not saying that as a knock on Raye I think he will be switching it up a bit this year).
by ChesapeakeBay9er on Jul 18, 2010 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Think'n we may not ...
… see Willam’s and Dixon get that many touche’s this year … If Dixon does make the team it might only be on the P.S. quad … hope’n Willam’s make the 53 roster though , even though it might only be for the return game …!!
Gotta love a woman that wear's knee pad's to work ...!!
Very high ...
… be shocked if he’s #‘s didn’t double …!!
Gotta love a woman that wear's knee pad's to work ...!!
Dixon will beat Coffee out
This is why. Coffee never had the kind of ability to do THIS
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Jul 19, 2010 1:03 AM PDT up reply actions
Yes i saw that ...
… and i do like him , he bring’s it … it might be hard for the F.O. to give up on Coffee and admit their mistake and for that reason it might be a year before we see the fruitation of this pick …!!
Gotta love a woman that wear's knee pad's to work ...!!
The video was great, but
Houston ranked 88th in total defense last year.
This video is more impressive, IMHO. I see a spark of Roger Craig…
"I don't have to look for the ball. It's like back in the day with me and Graham. I’m getting that kind of vibe right now."
---Michael Crabtree
A big huge Roger Craig? That would be pretty sweet LOL
Like I’ve said before about him, I hope they don’t take all of his go on the outside out of him. I know they’re trying to teach him to pound it some.
by ChesapeakeBay9er on Jul 19, 2010 9:40 AM PDT up reply actions
But, he likes to pound it some…
"I don't have to look for the ball. It's like back in the day with me and Graham. I’m getting that kind of vibe right now."
---Michael Crabtree
Oh I know he does and at 240 or so he can
I just read that Raye and the bunch were trying to get him more straight ahead but I like that he can move outside. I like the kid a lot.
by ChesapeakeBay9er on Jul 19, 2010 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions
I wouldn't count on a rookie to take targets away from Crabtree
You’re really underestimating him dude.
He’s the No.2 target on the entire team with a chance to become No.1 during training camp.
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
"I'm just like you, but 10 times better"
by SportsChicken on Jul 19, 2010 8:38 AM PDT up reply actions
Not saying they'll take a ton away but some.
I’m just saying that I see him getting like 5-6 not 7 TDs and just making or just missing 1000 yds. The more contribution from the others means actually more chance of him having possibilities as the defense will have to be spread a bit more and focus not just on him and VD.
by ChesapeakeBay9er on Jul 19, 2010 9:04 AM PDT up reply actions
No
The more contributions from others, the more opportunities Crabtree will have. Unless you’re suggesting that Ginn, Williams, and the other backups are going to supplant Crabtree on the field (they’re not), every single catch they have will either move the chains giving Crabby 3 more opportunities or at least move us closer to the chains. The only way their success could hurt Crabby’s opportunities is if they’re scoring TDs every single time they touch the ball… which they won’t.
Crabby’s success will not be harmed in any way, shape, or form by the successes of his fellow pass catchers. At all.
Trust me, learning english isn’t a waste of time. It is actually sort of useful.
-randolphforpresident
by Dubs fan in Boston on Jul 19, 2010 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions
I guess we have to factor in Alex Smith too
I’m guessing he realistically throws around 29 TDs
Lets give VD 13 TDs
Gore 3 TDs
Morgan 3 TDs
Leaves 10 Tds for Crabtree/Walker/Ginn/Williams
I’d say that VD won’t score 13 TDs again and Frank Gore’s 3 rec. TDs will tie a career high (2009) so that gives Crabtree even more possible TDs….plus, there are some that think Alex throws for more than 30 TDs.
0c06fm9j
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
"I'm just like you, but 10 times better"
by SportsChicken on Jul 19, 2010 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions
0c06fm9j?
wtf?
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
"I'm just like you, but 10 times better"
by SportsChicken on Jul 19, 2010 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Let's look at last year..and not for Crabs but for the whole team.
I tried to do this on another of these confidence posts and smiley had some input. So last year we had a total of 23 receiving TDs and 12 rushing TDs.
Here’s the receiving layout for last year:
VD 13, Morgan 3, Gore 3, Crabs 2, Hill 2
Now let’s say VD can get 10, Crabs 6, Gore 2, Morgan 2, Hill 2, Williams 2, Ginn 1
That’s 25, and my first feeling is that is a bit low. But let’s look at the entire NFL for last year.
New Orleans had 34 receiving TDs, Fave had 33 for Minny and Tavaris had one to also get 34. Peyton also had 33. Brady had 28. Flacco had 21 (interesting), Kurt had 26, and Schaub had 29. and Rivers had 28.
Now I think that shows something about us and them. And I think around 25-26 is good to expect, hope for more of course but expect that. I think we can figure not to hit the 39 mentioned. If that were to happen then Smith will have done about 6 more than 3 of the top QB’s did last year. So let’s peg him for around 25-28. And the numbers I presented above sound a bit more realistic.
Then if we look at Rushing TDs and start off looking at Gore. He had 10 rushing TDs last year and that was the most in his career it seems. So let’s take him down to 8 as a base. Then 1 for Coffee, I’m gonna say 2 for Dixon and one for Norris or whoever takes the FB position. And let’s put 1 in for Byham as an extra (I think he might get a receiving one or a rushing one but I kinda like him) So that’s 13 rushing TDs.
That gives the 9ers a total of 39 overall and that sounds pretty good to me. :-)
by ChesapeakeBay9er on Jul 19, 2010 4:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Byham will not score a TD
But I like the above numbers.
I pulled the 29 TDs in the above comment randomly out of my head.
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
"I'm just like you, but 10 times better"
by SportsChicken on Jul 19, 2010 5:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah just thought I'd toss that in there
I would like us to share the ball a bit more this year and really if we take those 5 that Shaun scored in 6 games and put them on Smith’s plate (which I think could be considered as feasible looking at what he did in the other games.) That’s 23 and I think/guess put him at the top 10 of QB’s last year. What worries me are the Sacks allowed as far as looking at those offensive numbers (used ESPN for looking up stats)
by ChesapeakeBay9er on Jul 19, 2010 5:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Alex Smith took less sacks/pass att than Hill
So the numbers should improve a bit.
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
"I'm just like you, but 10 times better"
by SportsChicken on Jul 20, 2010 2:37 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah looking at it...dang!
He played what 5 1/2 games and got sacked 18 times? Just saw that 40 under sacks on the QB and that was a big ouch to me but Favre got sacked 34 times and Aaron Rodgers got sacked 50 times.
by ChesapeakeBay9er on Jul 20, 2010 3:08 AM PDT up reply actions
Aaron Rodgers holds the ball way too long thats why.
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Jul 21, 2010 12:42 AM PDT up reply actions
Not good
The 49ers scored 39 TD’s last year. That was good enough for a tie for 16th place in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Indianapolis Colts for example scored 53 TD’s, or 4th in the NFL.
The 49ers need to score a lot more than 39TD’s to be a playoff contender next year.
"I don't have to look for the ball. It's like back in the day with me and Graham. I’m getting that kind of vibe right now."
---Michael Crabtree
Nah
Our defense is better than the Colt’s defense. If we can sore 2-3 TDs a game we’ll have a much better record than we did last year.
Logic merely enables one to be wrong with authority
I thought if you score more than the other team, you win.
I could be wrong, though. ;-P
"I don't have to look for the ball. It's like back in the day with me and Graham. I’m getting that kind of vibe right now."
---Michael Crabtree
Those aren't opposing things :-)
We scored 4 defensive touchdowns and depending how you look at it that puts us in either the #2 or #7 spot for defensive scoring (tied for #2 actually) only ones that had more were the NO Saints.
by ChesapeakeBay9er on Jul 19, 2010 6:18 PM PDT up reply actions
yeah I was about to mention that
Means they only scored 35 offensive TDs.
That’s not good enough.
I’d like to see 40-45
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
"I'm just like you, but 10 times better"
by SportsChicken on Jul 20, 2010 2:39 AM PDT up reply actions
That was Alex Smith scoring 39
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Jul 21, 2010 12:43 AM PDT up reply actions
Like ItBurnzWhenIP said
Less 3 and outs gives everyone more touches. Most will go to Gore/VD/Crabtree with some to the others. Smith played well with them all last year and in the same offense, he should start to get that automatic feeling where he knows where they will be on every play.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
Now I know I hit reply to ChesapeakeBay9er on this.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
Sometimes this happens.
But it never happens to me…
Trust me, learning english isn’t a waste of time. It is actually sort of useful.
-randolphforpresident
by Dubs fan in Boston on Jul 19, 2010 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions
Medium
I’m not sure he’s going to top 60 catches for 800 yards, but I hope he scores a few TDs. I think he’ll do fine, just not have a huge season. I love the guy, but I don’t think he’ll get 1000 yards.
by Andrew Davidson on Jul 18, 2010 4:44 PM PDT reply actions
Whaaaa
That’s it? I’m almost positive he’ll crack 1,000 yards.
by mr. instigator on Jul 19, 2010 8:53 AM PDT up reply actions
High.
At least 1000 yards recieving and 4 TDs.
I survived the David Carr Press Conference Thread 3/06/2010
Credit to iaalexeeff
The New and Improved Bay Area Connections:
Alex Smith to Michael Crabtree
Stephen Curry to David Lee
Madison Bumgarner to Gerald Buster "Jesus" Posey
by Hoopers Judge on Jul 18, 2010 4:56 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
barring injuries
I don’t think it’s crazy at all to expect him to have a pro bowl year. he was already a beast last year, now with a full TC and pre-season with Alex he should put up great numbers
by 49erEmpire on Jul 18, 2010 5:42 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
My confidence level for Crabtree is high (not very high yet... after all, this will be his first full year in the NFL...
But I hope his stats are modest, for the reasons stated about having (and using) many options. I always go back to “The Drive”, 92 yards in less than 3:00 of clock time to beat Cincinnati in SB XXIII. Montana completed 7 passes on the drive: #1 to Roger Craig, #2 to TE John Frank, #3 to Jerry Rice, #4 back to Craig, #5 to Rice again, #6 back to Craig. Now, with everybody in the world expecting him to go back to the best-ever WR in the universe Rice, he hits John Taylor for the winning TD. Both WRs, the TE, and the RB were all used on the drive, were all viable options, and all had to be defended against. To me, that was the best-ever display of offensive football, using many options to keep the D off balance. This is what I’m hoping to see this season, using Crabtree, Davis, Morgan, Gore, and a 3rd WR (I think I like Williams best of #3’s in the slot, Jason Hill if #3 if in “twins”) all as viable options and all used with somewhat equal frequency. I’d love to see the season end with the following reception #s: Crabtree 75, Davis 75, Morgan 65, Gore 60, Hill 45, Williams 45, Walker 45. That’s 410 total receptions, about 25 a game. Hoping those 25 receptions/game can be accomplished in 38 pass plays, that still leaves 22-27 running plays (assuming 60-65 offensive plays/game). I know that Sing wants more balance between the run and the pass than this….
But, if you were trying to defend a team with an offensive distribution such as this, how do you do it? Who do you key on?
After all was said and done, a lot more got said than done.
Yep I hear ya OldJock
And I agree that the ball needs to be distributed around.
by ChesapeakeBay9er on Jul 18, 2010 7:26 PM PDT up reply actions
You overstate the impact the other players will have
The three players you mentioned all started playing together in 1987. Here are their stats by year:
1987
Rice—65 receptions, 1078 yards, 22 TDs
Taylor—9 receptions, 151 yards, 0 TDS
Craig—215 attempts, 815 yards, 3 TDs
1988
Rice—64 receptions, 1306 yards, 9 TDs
Taylor—14 receptions, 325 yards, 2 TDs
Craig—310 attempts, 1502 yards, 9 Tds
1989
Rice—82 receptions, 1483 yards, 17 TDs
Taylor—60 receptions, 1077 yards, 10 TDs
Craig—217 attempts, 1054 yards, 6 TDs
1990
Rice—100 receptions, 1502 yards, 13 TDs
Taylor—49 receptions, 748 yards, 7 TDs
Craig—141 attempts, 439 yards, 1 TD
1991
Rice—80 receptions, 1206 yards, 14 TDs
Taylor—64 receptions, 1011 yards, 9 TDs
Even in an offense dominated with potent weapons Rice was still the clear number one and still put up 1300 and 1400 yard seasons.
Logic merely enables one to be wrong with authority
Thank you.
In reality the more weapons, the more room your #1 has to work with. Crabtree will clearly be our #1 receiver, so I think his floor is 1,000 yards, ceiling is 1,450
by mr. instigator on Jul 19, 2010 8:56 AM PDT up reply actions
In reality the more weapons, the more room your #1 has to work with.
And the more opportunities your #1 has to work with. Seriously, every time one of your other offensive weapons uses a single play to be successful, it gives the team 3 more opportunities to look at your #1 option… unless, of course, your other options are scoring TDs themselves.
If he is as expected, your floor/ceiling looks pretty good. However, there have been lots of receivers that look good in their rookie year and stink it up. There’s nothing that says Crabtree will not falter in this second season.
Trust me, learning english isn’t a waste of time. It is actually sort of useful.
-randolphforpresident
by Dubs fan in Boston on Jul 19, 2010 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions
Smileyman said "Even in an offense dominated with potent weapons Rice was still the clear number one"
and I agree with that, but we have to remember that Jerry Rice is the GOAT!!!! You mentioned Craig’s rushing attempts, but not his receptions (after all, he was a 1000/1000 guy one season), nor receptions by the TE, whoever it was during those various seasons. The point I was trying to make was that being unpredictable and keeping the D off balance makes O football so much easier…
I’m talking about an idealized situation, not what I expect but what I think would make us most difficult to defend and therefore most effective. I added the description of “The Drive” to show that, although Rice was clearly #1, which we all know, Walsh’s play calling was such that the defense still didn’t know when JR would be targeted. Walsh’s genius wasn’t just in his invention of the WCO, but in his implementation of it (his play calling).
We’re no longer a WCO team, but we can still keep the D off balance through creative play calling and spreading the ball around, and we’ll be more successful if we do.
After all was said and done, a lot more got said than done.
Agreed
Manning to Marvin was indeed great but you can shut one man down. During that same time Brady (to a degree at that time insert QB here) was placing the ball out to a number of receivers. There was no way to shut that down and once Peyton got the idea of that (or a few other plausible receivers) his production and if not that end product stepped up as well.
by ChesapeakeBay9er on Jul 20, 2010 6:05 PM PDT up reply actions
I am so high on Crabtree
That when I drive I get pulled over for driving under the influence
by manraj7 on Jul 18, 2010 8:02 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
very high
i think by the second half of the season crabs and smith will be such a good tandem that crabs will start to get shaded by the fs and he will still top 1000 yards, only opening up the field for the aforementioned vd, gore, and co.
I rated him High
I think if all goes well, the 1000 yards is a given. But the 7 touchdowns isn’t. We still have VD for the end zone and hopefully a running game for 1st or 2nd and goal, and Crabtree’s style is not necessarily well matched to short yardage TDs the way VD’s is.
He can catch Alex's underthrown passes
I think high receptions and yardage, but modest TD’s.
Coach Boone: And who's team is this, Gary? Is this your team? Or is this your daddy's team?
Bertier: Yours.
Coach Boone: Now get on the bus. Put on your jacket first and then get on the bus.
he catches the overthrown ones too
modest anything for Crabtree would underestimate his potential. With VD as the clear threat in the red zone Crabtree will flip numbers with VD this year. Crabtree 12 TD’s, VD 9
I don’t think that at all… and of course this is all speculation on your behalf
by Drew K on Apr 14, 2010 2:05 PM PDT
On the Crabtree wagon....
but, I reserve the right not to get too excited. I voted “high”, because I think Micheal has all the tools to be the next breakout recceiver in the league. However, receiver in the NFL is one of the most mercurial. As great a receiver as Jerry Rice was, he benefited from having 2 HOF QB’s to get him the ball. Receivers are totally dependant on QB’s in order for them to be great.
If the Niners continue to run an offense that outs emphasis on the pass, then Crabs can do super well. Unfortunately, his destiny is married to whomever sits under center. And as of right now, I only see an “average guy”, a “fallen savier”, and an “untested rookie” w/ a slightly defective “hard drive”. I’m certain that like most receivers in the league, they wished they played w/ passers like Brees, Manning and Brady. Micheal is no exception. No matter what he says.
Then again, Micheal can boost some of his receiver mates in to exploding and making Smith, Carr, and Davis (what kinda infatuation does the Niners have w/ the name Davis? LOL) It’s not unheard of. Look at the Redskins team that beat Buffalo for the title. Mark Rypen was a so/so QB. Outstanding delivery of the deep ball, but, not the most accurate or mobile QB the ’Skins had at their disposal. Thus, the receivers, (the “fun bunch” if memory serves correct…) made Rypen look absolutely stellar at times. So, who knows? I can say as a fan of the Niners….I hold high hopes for the team.
K.C.Edwards -AKA- "THE" DarkkStarr
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