Projecting the 49ers 53-man Roster #1
by David Fucillo on Jul 19, 2010 7:00 AM PDT
in Roster Projections
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PrintOver the last two months we've been coming up with roster projections for each position on the 49ers roster. To me, it seems easier to break down each position, and then work backwards (or forwards depending on how you look at it) from there filling in the 53-man roster. Each year this projection has actually moved closer and closer to the season (2009 and 2008). I would actually argue that's a good thing because it means we've been busier on the site, and we've had a longer look at each position, each player, each bubble spot. So with that, here's the first projection. After the jump we break things down a bit more.
Offense
QB (3): Alex Smith, David Carr, Nate Davis
RB (4): Frank Gore, Glen Coffee, Michael Robinson, Anthony Dixon
FB (1): Moran Norris
WR (5): Michael Crabtree, Josh Morgan, Ted Ginn Jr., Jason Hill, Kyle Williams
TE (3): Vernon Davis, Delanie Walker, Nate Byham
LT (2): Joe Staley, Barry Sims
LG (2): Mike Iupati, David Baas
C (1): Eric Heitmann
RG (2): Chilo Rachal, Adam Snyder
RT (2): Anthony Davis, Alex Boone
Defense
DE (5): Justin Smith, Kentwan Balmer, Demetric Evans, Isaac Sopoaga, Ray McDonald
DT (2): Aubrayo Franklin, Ricky Jean-Francois
OLB (4): Manny Lawson, Parys Haralson, Ahmad Brooks, Travis LaBoy
ILB (4): Patrick Willis, Takeo Spikes, Scott McKillop, Navorro Bowman
CB (5): Nate Clements, Shawntae Spencer, Tarell Brown, Karl Paymah, Will James
FS (2): Dashon Goldson, Curtis Taylor
SS (3): Michael Lewis, Taylor Mays, Reggie Smith
Special Teams
K: Joe Nedney
P: Andy Lee
LS: Brian Jennings
Last 5 on: Curtis Taylor, Alex Boone, Nate Byham, Travis LaBoy, Will James/Karl Paymah
First 5 off: LeRoy Vann, Diyral Briggs, Brit Miller, Cody Wallace, Dominique Zeigler
THE BUBBLE
I'll be honest, this first 53-man roster projection was rather difficult. In looking at the first 5 off, Vann, Briggs, and Miller were all particularly difficult. But in looking back at them, it seems like the odds just are not in their favor. I think all five of those first five off could work there way onto the roster, but such is life on The Bubble.
OT
If you've followed our position-by-position roster projections, you may notice I've made some changes to the guys I had down as locks versus bubble. Most notably was removing Tony Wragge from the offensive line and adding both Barry Sims and Alex Boone. I think this is a lot closer than people give it credit for and I do think Cody Wallace remains in the mix. However, a couple things swayed my decision. There was some passionate commentary from folks and that was influential. Additionally, in thinking it over, with the team giving Baas OTA time at center, and Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati eventually making their way into the starting lineup, David Baas and Adam Snyder add some interior back-up versatility.
KR/PR
LeRoy Vann was one of the last guys I removed from the 53-man roster. He's a supremely talented return-man as evidenced by his record-breaking college career. At the same time, with Ted Ginn and Kyle Williams, I just think Vann gets squeezed out in a numbers crunch. Ginn isn't going anywhere, and Williams seems to be a bit more versatile than Vann. Vann can certainly play cornerback, but it seems like Williams is sufficiently better at wide receiver than Vann is at corner. I just think that barring an absolutely home run training camp returning punts, Vann will need to show more at cornerback.
Cornerback
Speaking of CBs, after the big three, I honestly wasn't sure about the rest of the position. I went with five corners because the team went with five on their 53-man roster last season. Paymah and James aren't exactly big names, but they would bring some decent depth to the position. However, I think they're bubble guys given how far down the depth chart they are.
OLB
It's safe to say the Travis LaBoy-Diyral Briggs roster battle will be one of the more interesting, and yet more underrated training camp battles. The majority of folks voted that both LaBoy and Briggs would make the roster, but I just don't see it. There just doesn't seem to be enough playing time out there for both of them. I suppose I could be wrong, but for now I'm sticking with that.
FB
I know a lot of folks are all about Brit Miller, but I see him in a fairly tough battle for a roster spot. One could argue it's a battle between Miller, Moran Norris and Michael Robinson, with a couple roster spots on the line. I remain sold on Michael Robinson's special teams ability, and Moran Norris seems to have built up some cache with the coaching staff. I'm curious to see what kind of playing time Miller gets in preseason game.
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Great first projection
Couple things. Vann unfortunately is a catch-22. We’ll kick ourselves if he makes the roster and doesn’t produce in what I think will be a PR role. And he’s waived, he won’t make it to the PS because I just know per his highlight reels and how he performs in preseason, we’ll kick ouselves because he’s going to be on another team by the next day. But I hope he gets every chance to make the team even if it’s only in a PR role. Miller, I’m rooting for him to edge out Norris in a last minute move. Of course we’ll really see when preseason starts, but I still think other than experience Miller still has better overall value than Norris.
27 days to go. . .
Very good analysis
I think you have it pretty close to right, at least pending what we see in training camp and exhibition games where some of the bubble guys may move up or down a few slots. However, I have a few questions, and hope you may have the insider information that allows you to answer them. First—Is Will James 100% recovered from the hip fracture, or is the door open a little bit more for one of the rookies to make the roster at CB, especially Adams? Second, Boone and Sims have somewhat redundant skill sets, except Boone can play LT and RT while Sims is LT only. Sims has, at best, 1 more year in the tank. Is he enough better than Briggs, or Miller, or Ziegler, or even Vann to warrant that last roster slot? Finally, Is there any chance that Miller can show enough in exhibition games to nudge Norris off the roster?
I have a feeling that Adams will be one who could make the 53 man roster.
I also agree that since they have been having Boone work at LT all OTAs, and because Snyder is also a backup T, that they keep those two and Sims does not stay.
Briggs and Miller are tuff calls.. flip a coin to see if one or both make the team over Norris and LaBoy.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
Well thought out, Fooch.
I’d change one thing – On starting defense, there are 4 LBs and 4DBs. Can’t see why DBs get 10 roster spots to 8 for LBs. I’d put Briggs back on and cut James.
by DeathValleyCarl on Jul 19, 2010 8:41 AM PDT reply actions
Each LB spot has two backups
Cutting a CB when you’ll often face 3 WRs bring you down to only 1 back up CB… and sometimes you’ll face 4 WRs. You’re almost never going to have more than 4 LB on the field, but you’ll often have more than 4 DBs on the field. This is why you need more DBs than LBs.
The back up spots are to provide depth, not create a second unit. With 2 back ups for each LB spot, that’s plenty. Taking away a 5th CB when you will need 3 and probably 4 a few times a game in lieu of a 3rd back up LB who’ll never see the field just seems a little silly. If you want, you could consider dropping Reggie Smith as the 3rd SS. But I suspect we’ll want to keep him because Lewis is on his last legs and Mays is a rookie.
Trust me, learning english isn’t a waste of time. It is actually sort of useful.
-randolphforpresident
by Dubs fan in Boston on Jul 19, 2010 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions
Sounds right. I think I'm surprised as many possibly are..
at some of the rookie CB’s not being on there. But that’s more hope than anything. I mean if out of this draft we get on the roster Iupati, Davis, Bowmann, Dixon, Williams, and Byham that’s a pretty nice haul at 6. So if I read you right you have Baas and Snyder as backing up essentially all 3 inner OL positions huh?
by ChesapeakeBay9er on Jul 19, 2010 9:22 AM PDT reply actions
Darn! Can't believe I missed him!
Thanks for the catch on that McTee
by ChesapeakeBay9er on Jul 19, 2010 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions
should we count ginn?
8 roster spots coming out of the 2010 draft…
nah
He wasn’t drafted. The only guy who didn’t make it onto the roster (and he might be on the PS) is Phillip Adams.
Actually since the 49ers traded their 5th round pick for Ginn I would think he would qualify
6 of one and half dozen of the other.. but we might as well include Ginn as part of this draft.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
Travis LaBoy-Diyral Briggs
I think that if it is close in preseaon camp between these two guys, they should go with Briggs.
Travis LaBoy is scheduled to make 1.6 million this year and is only on a 1 year contract. With no penalty this year on the Cap (there is none) they can cut LaBoy and his contract. LaBoy has never had more than 6.5 sacks in a season and was injured all of last season.
Diyral Briggs is scheduled to only make 395,000 this year. He is 4 years younger than LaBoy is a better bargain.
Very Good Projection
The 1 thing I disagree with is the OL. I dont think Davis will be starting come week 1. If that is the case, and Snyder does start that leaves 3 “back-up” tackles in Davis, Sims, and Boone on the roster. To me either Sims or Boone will make it and because we have two rookie O-lineman, I think Sims has the edge with likely Wragge rounding out the 9th spot bc of his versatility and experience
The idea will certainly be to have Davis supplant Snyder at some point
And even if he doesn’t, Snyder is still the back up Guard even if he is the starting Tackle. If Rachal goes down, Snyder shifts inside and Davis/Boone takes the Tackle spot. You don’t need Wragge unless you think a Wragge/Snyder Guard/Tackle combo is better than than Snyder/Davis or Snyder/Boone.
Given Wragge’s age, you don’t put him on the roster over Boone unless he’s really a lot better or you don’t have any hope of Boone getting any better. And I suspect neither of those two are true. Now, if we had a good young guard prospect, you might keep him over Boone… but we don’t. Besides, I doubt we’ll have trouble picking up somebody of Wragge’s quality off the waiver wire or somebody’s practice squad should we need an additional guard some time down the road.
And if Davis can’t supplant Adam Snyder at Tackle, we’ve got much bigger problems than figuring out who’s our 9th offensive lineman.
Trust me, learning english isn’t a waste of time. It is actually sort of useful.
-randolphforpresident
by Dubs fan in Boston on Jul 19, 2010 10:17 AM PDT up reply actions
Since there have been a lot of comments about the OLine....
Anyone have thoughts on this story about Chester Pitts?
Evidently, he’s showing his stuff in AZ this week to a number of teams, including ours?
I wouldn't read too much into it
Says we had show interest this off season. That would include pre-draft and I do remember there being interested then.
I agree
don’t read too much into it. He would not beat out any of our current starters, especially coming off microfracture knee surgery at the age of 31.
by ZeroOneInfinity on Jul 19, 2010 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions
Very well done, Fooch!
Excellent analysis and reasoning. Your 53 are very close to the 53 that I projected.
A couple points:
1. I’m not sure that we keep 10 DBs; more likely 9 and in my judgement James would be the first to go from your list.
2. Not sure about keeping 9 OL which includes both Boone and Sims; Boone is more versatile and younger, so would release Sims. If you want 9 OL, how about signing Chester Pitts?
3. I’m rooting for Miller (or Caulcrick) to displace Norris, but understand your thinking.
4. To relieve the pain of cutting James and Sims, you could add back Vann and Ziegler!
It’s going to be an interesting camp, huh?
by 49erFanSince1950 on Jul 19, 2010 12:47 PM PDT reply actions
Vann
IMO Vann won’t make it as a CB and will have to be far superior as a returner to win a job.
There's always such
A big temptation
To be good, To be good
There's always free cheddar in
A mousetrap, baby
It's a deal, it's a deal
I've avoided roster-bating until this point
Since the actual season is almost here I thought I would chime in with a few remarks.
1) Singletary was talking about saving a few roster spots specifically for special team performers, I’m not sure this projection reflects that sentiment.
2) I’d expect the 49ers to keep less CBs because there is better talent at S, plus the way they play coverage the 4th DB could either be a CB or S.
3) I would also expect the 49ers to be more strategic with their final roster cuts. Briggs and Zeigler would be off the team if not on the 53-man roster. No one is picking up Dixon or Kyle Williams right away off the practice squad. Every team will have their own project RB and WR they are stuffing on the PS so it’s not much a threat leaving them initially exposed.
This would be my 53 at this point
nice!
I don’t think that at all… and of course this is all speculation on your behalf
by Drew K on Apr 14, 2010 2:05 PM PDT
I hope Norris ...
is NOT going to make the 53 since I believe we have two FB’s that are better than him and much younger as well.The ONLY reason he might make the team is because Gore is his best friend. That would be a very poor reason to allow an inferior and older player,on his last legs,to make the roster.
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