2010 49ers defense: How good can it be?
by David Fucillo on Aug 19, 2010 7:01 AM PDT
in San Francisco 49ers News
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PrintAs we get closer and closer to the regular season, every media type puts together their own preview of the upcoming season. Over at ESPN Radio, on the Mike and Mike in the Morning show, Greenberg and Golic have been putting together previews of each team with the 5 biggest questions facing the team. Thanks to StevenC for initially linking to this audio in a FanShot.
In the audio, both Mikes seem fairly high on the 49ers with Greenberg predicting 12-4 and Golic predicting 11-5 (although I think Greenberg's big prediction brought Golic up to 11-5). Of course, Mike Golic apparently still thinks Shaun Hill is on the team, so take it with a bit of a grain of salt.
One of the five questions they discussed was "Can Mike Singletary's defense emerge as a consistent unit?" The main point they brought up in their discussion was the inconsistency over the course of the season. Greenberg pointed to an interesting statistic: In their 8 wins, the 49ers defense gave up 56 points, while in their 8 losses, they gave up 225 points. That's an average of 7 points allowed in wins and 28 points in losses. Even if the offense had been able to apply a consistent attack, it would have been tough to overcome 28 points.
While we do have to factor in a tired defense at times, and offensive turnovers returned for TDs, among other things, the consistency was still a very real issue. The strongest comment in the audio came from Mike Golic when he said that when the defense was playing well, they looked like they could be the #1 defense in the entire league. The question is how true that comment might be heading into 2010.
It's particularly intriguing because the team didn't make a ton of moves on the defensive side of the ball. The biggest changes from last year to this year are the addition of NaVorro Bowman and Taylor Mays, the likely addition of Diyral Briggs to the 53-man roster on a regular basis, the potential insertion of Reggie Smith into the Mark Roman role, and maybe the increased playing time Ricky Jean Francois might see even after Aubrayo Franklin signs his tender. Some of these moves might end up being bigger than others, but in the grand scheme of things, we're not talking about huge changes to the starting defense.
Given this relative stability on defense, where do people see the defense performing in 2010? I think the ceiling is as high as most defenses in the league, but that doesn't mean we'll see that kind of production consistently. Of course, depending on the defensive metrics we look at, the 49ers were already an elite defense. Based on simple total yards allowed, the 49ers ranked 15th overall, 21st against the pass, and 6th against the rush. Under Football Outsiders defense efficiency ratings, the 49ers ranked 3rd overall, 7th against the pass, and 4th against the rush.
For those who haven't seen any of our Football Outsiders discussion, one of the drawbacks to the traditional total yards allowed measurement is that it treats all yards gained equally, even though some yards gained (such as 2 yards gained on 3rd and 1) are more important than other yards gained (a gain of 10 on a 3rd and 14).
For the purposes of this post, I will say that the 49ers had a very solid defense that could take it to a new level in 2010. There are several questions to consider heading into 2010. I think the team will be able to answer them, but there are areas that could emerge as trouble spots. Here are some of those trouble areas and why I think the team will find the necessary solutions. I wanted to take a look at nose tackle, the secondary and the issue of sacks.
1. Nose tackle
I bring this up not because of Franklin's holdout, or at least not entirely. I suppose there are issues that arise when you miss practice time and preseason game time with your teammates. However, beyond that is the question of whether Franklin will be able to repeat a 2009 season that most 49ers defensive players thought was worthy of the Pro Bowl. I think with the potential to earn himself a monster contract in the offseason, I think Franklin can sniff out a very good year. Maybe it's not for the best reasons (as opposed to wanting to win or whatever), but if it gets the team great play at nose tackle, who cares what his reasons are.
Additionally, the chance to rotate Ricky Jean Francois could add essential depth to keep Franklin fresh. Franklin is not the type of NT that will play the entire game and be absolutely dominant all the way through. He'll have plenty of big moments, but depth at the position will be important, and RJF looks to be providing that this year if reports of his from camp of his strong performances continues.
2. Secondary
The secondary has been a question mark for the 49ers since before the Nolan era began. The team has had talent in the defensive secondary but not enough across the board. However, with the influx of talent and the development of some folks, I'm actually feeling fairly decent with the secondary.
The starting secondary to begin the season will likely be Shawntae Spencer, Nate Clements, Dashon Goldson, and Michael Lewis, with Tarell Brown operating as the first cornerback off the bench, and Reggie Smith as the first safety off the bench. Changes could happen, but I'm operating under this assumption for now.
If the secondary remains healthy, while I don't think this will be a big-time ball-hawking unit, I do think they'll be able to provide a nice level of consistency. Goldson is the primary ballhawk. Michael Lewis is there for run support. Clements can still provide coverage while being an excellent run defender and general open field tackler, all while looking to prove he's not over the hill. And Shawntae Spencer quietly shocked some folks by emerging as the #1 cornerback for this team.
I actually am perfectly content with those four starters and think the defense could be solid with them as is. However, if the team can see continued development from Tarell Brown and Reggie Smith, I think they could step up to an even greater level. There are so many great wide receivers in the NFL that you can't have too many defensive backs. The more quality depth the better.
And I didn't even mention Taylor Mays. The second round pick is a starting safety of the future but will certainly see a fair amount of playing time in his rookie season. It remains to be seen where he'll end up on the depth chart by season's end, but he only adds more big-hitting depth.
3. The Sack Numbers
Even before the injury to Ahmad Brooks one question mark to me was how many sacks would we see in 2010. The 49ers went from 30 sacks (tied for 16th) in 2008 to 44 sacks (tied for 3rd) in 2009. Can the team repeat this and bring some kind of consistent heat? Even with the high sack total it really felt like there were too many times where the 49ers pass rush disappeared. The Packers game would be a perfect example of this.
When you look at the points allowed in wins and loss mentioned above, a quick look at the sack totals for wins and losses will provide at least a little bit of context to the points allowed. In the 49ers eight losses they recorded 15 sacks (5 of them in the 20-17 loss at Seattle). In the 49ers eight wins they recorded 29 sacks. Maybe that doesn't tell the whole picture, but it definitely gives us a better idea.
If the 49ers are going to gain a level of consistency that will make them one of the best defenses in the league (if not the best), they'll need the consistent pass rush from week to week. The loss of Ahmad Brooks hurts the defense, but he should be back early enough in the year. Furthermore, we'll get a bit more Diyral Briggs time. If he can live up to some of the fan hype, what's to stop the team from having a 4-headed monster at outside linebacker in 2010?
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Consistency is the key word for me on the Defense...
…and i’ll start with pressure on the Qb , juz wasn’t there . then over rated amount of sack’s … if this team had half the sack’s and more consistency at pressuring the Qb ,then you wouldn’t be able too throw all day long against them … yes the run D was good but the pass D was horrid… If they have better pressure on the Qb on a more consistant basis then i think this could be a top Ten D .. ( IMO ) this D is juz middle of the road …!!
Gotta love a woman that wear's knee pad's to work ...!!
Key players who could affect the defense's progress (either positively or negatively)
Sopoaga, or a replacement there for. Can he hold his point? Can he get any pressure on passing downs? So far, no. Will McDonald get more reps at LDE in base?
McDonald (aforementioned) himself could come up big in Nickel and really help QB pressure. Needs to step up even further.
Brooks/Briggs/Nickel DE’s in general. Yeah, I’m calling them DE’s because that’s the position in Nickel. It’s 4 DL’s, most of the time with their hands in the dirt. These guys need to be disruptive, whoever is in the game.
Secondary needs to limit big plays, always a thorn in the side of 49ers’ defenses. LB’s need to do a better job against TE’s and our zone coverage has to be a little better at not leaving huge holes. Safeties need to do better job of reading play and helping, being in position to break up passes/lay wood/help over top on deep ball.
I think NT is solid as is RDE, even if RJF, Mitchell, etc. have to come in. The DL is showing great depth and strength, penetration (minus Soap).
The LB’s will be great against the run again too. Coverage I worry about. We allow a lot of completions underneath. Suppose it’s better than deep passes completed though.
Really our run defense should be STELLAR again. Pass rush and improved coverage all around would make the defense top 5.
Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Tedd Ginn/Delanie Walker, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook...which one is getting the ball and where?
Let's talk on Twitter
Briggs
can he rush the passer? If so that will alleviate one of my big concerns with our pass rush defense.
Logic merely enables one to be wrong with authority
Not only Briggs, but I think that Bruce Davis might have what it takes to become a pass rusher...
I’m going to focus on the two of them this Sunday, so I can comment more knowledgeably next week… I’m also going to focus on RJF again
After all was said and done, a lot more got said than done.
watch the DL
that’s what I do. They are the key to the early part of the play anyways. If it’s Nickel, OLB’s will be on the DL as DE’s anyways so you’ll see their rush. Then if you follow the ball in your peripheral you’ll see the LB’s and DB’s pursue to the tackle. Best way to catch as many players per given play, IMO.
Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Tedd Ginn/Delanie Walker, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook...which one is getting the ball and where?
Let's talk on Twitter
Briggs is GREAT as pass rushing
he’s sorta in the mold of Brooks in that PR is his biggest asset right now. I’d call him a pass rush specialist at this point though he’s showing flashes of being able to play every down in time.
Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Tedd Ginn/Delanie Walker, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook...which one is getting the ball and where?
Let's talk on Twitter
I truly believe the key to improving the defense...
…Is keeping our offense on the field longer.
3-and-outs (and short drives in-general) really put an additional strain on our D, and that added wear compounds over the length of the season. Throw in a couple sustained drives each game and the D will be that much fresher, and I would expect that much more efficient as a result.
That’s a good point. I don’t think its the key, but its definately part of what could make this defense truly elite…enough rest. If the offense is good, or even just slightly above average this season, the defense should get more rest and therefore not get run down by the end of games and the end of the season.
Z!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Tweet Tweet.
by ZeroIndulgence on Aug 19, 2010 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions
Came in to say just that
An extra set of downs on each drive could give a lot of extra rest. An extra minute or so before having to go back on the field is incredibly helpful, especially for speed guys.
Also in the bend-but-don’t-break pattern our defense has been showing, an extra ten yards of field position won’t hurt either. What hurts is coming up with a big stop and then having to give the ball back after three plays.
Our defense wore down in games last year
First half, early in the 2nd they’d have short drives (3, 4, 5 plays). Later on they’d give up 10, 11, and 12 play drives.
Logic merely enables one to be wrong with authority
This is the biggest point IMO. Not sure what the Time of Possession numbers were, but my gut tells me our defense was on the field much >50% of the game. It was most obvious this was a factor when our O would go 3-N-Out and our defense would give up points shortly thereafter…not only due to tiredness but also field position.
Our D did a great job at limiting damage to field goals, but 3 points is 3 points, and they sure do add up over 4 quarters. If our O can truly pound the rock, eat clock and put up some points, our D could definitely find itself in the top 5 (especially being in the NFC West).
Other than that, slowing the passing game is the other main key. Too many times was our pass-rush ineffective, leaving even mediocre QBs plenty of time to hurt us. Gotta find ways to improve this, thru scheming or improved play. No Roman is huge…addition by subtraction. Plus R.Smith is lookin’ better, and getting praise from Coach.
We just traded who for who?!
TOP is not that important
but number of plays is.
They ran 939 plays on offense and 1050 on defense. Difference of -110.
An average NFL team ran 1007 plays last year, Niners were last in the league in No. of plays ran. Only the Patriots and Vikings as a team ran more plays on than the Niners allowed on defense.
As defensive units, only the Colts, Bills, Browns, and Chiefs were on the field for more plays. And the niners were 2nd in the league (to the Jets) in allowing 1st Downs (as measured by 1st Ds/Play)
So, yes I would say that the Niners defense was on the field a lot… although one could argue that because they were good at not allowing 1st Downs, they mitigated this to some extent (being 5th in the league in plays)
When this .sig was awaiting the Final Sabean Apocalypse, I never once in a million years suspected it would be a "good" Apocalypse. Bengie... Don't let the door hit you IN YOUR GIANT ASS on the way out!
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game totally stalled and basically dead at this point
thinking about this last night
At times, our defense looks like it can be the best in the league. I think our D will be good enough to propel us into the playoffs. How far? Depends how dominant we can be. Fuck it. We don’t need Smith to become the next Montana or Young. I think it may not be wise to put all the responsibility on Smith’s shoulders as some people like to do. Look at all the bad qb’s in the league. If Smith can turn into an average to good qb or somewhere in between, ill consider that a victory. I’m hoping for it. We just need him to be a little better than last year. Our defense and running can pound teams into the dirt.
by Iupati_like_its_1999 on Aug 19, 2010 8:12 AM PDT reply actions
i'm not responsible for regulating this stuff
but i’m pretty sure you’re supposed to refrain from cursing outside of game threads. just sayin
"Son, I'm going to break you like a wild horse." - Mike Singletary
Our defense is already a top 5 unit
based on points allowed per game (really the most important defensive statistic).
I can see us vying for the #1 spot.
Logic merely enables one to be wrong with authority
that is true
and gosh, can you imagine if we’d brought our Pts Against average down from 28+ in the 8 losses? We were 4th in the NFL in PA and that’s WITH allowing 28+ avg. in our losses…
Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Tedd Ginn/Delanie Walker, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook...which one is getting the ball and where?
Let's talk on Twitter
I totally agree with you that apart of our defense being better has 2 do with our
offense going on long drives,i also hope that we could find a replacement 4 sopaga i know he sets the run defense really good but he puts absoloutly no pressure on the QB..Im also hoping reggie smith can step up this pre-season n steal that starting positions from michael lewis i know he plays the run good but plenty of times he gets burned on passing plays and i think we need better play from his position.
by 49er_diva_recieva's on Aug 19, 2010 8:19 AM PDT reply actions
SPEED & Injuries- Remember Atlanta Falcons!!!
SPEED DEMONS required!!! Our DB need to step on the Gas.The CB’s need to be able to SHUT DOWN!!!
Corner Backs
I am truly concerned about NATE CLEMENTS, is he able to last at least the first four games of the season or is he gonna get injured?Brings back memories of the 2010 Draft when many forums were calling out for JOE HADEN,as they thought that our CB lacked depth.
Safeties
Did we really need another Safety like TAYLOR MAYS,was it a necessarry top priority? After the performance of Reggie Smith against the Colts,the ‘film’ suggets not.
Inside Linebackers
PATRICK WILLIS lately seems prone to knee injuries?Do we have a replacement for him,as he is the glue that holds our defense altogether?TAKEO SPIKES is arguably in his Swan Song NFL Year, and Scott Mckillop is injured,NAVORRO BOWMAN seems to have his work cut out in the ILB engine room.
Outside Linebackers
How about Manny Lawson and his antiques,he seems to be like another Kentwan Balmer disaster likely to happen.Ahmad Brooks is injured,LaBoy is injured,i’m truly concerned about all this,and not having a true pass-rusher.What are we gonna do!!!
D-LINE
Aubrayo and his antiques, l never really expected this from him.Plainly does not deserve an increase with such an attitude.How egos can be created Monday overnight Football against Chicago Bears!!York don’t give that Franklin a SHILLING!!!SAPOAGA on the left side seems to be struggling!!! Probowl SMITH on the right side cannot be holding down the D-Line for all of us all throughout the season.Truth be said as professional whoever is in charge of the DLine failed to COACH & develop 1st round draft pick Kentwan Balmer (l wouldn’t be surprised if we got hammered there).Yes, we can blame Ex-GM Scott McCloughlan, for drafting Kentwan Balmer.But having followed the drafting process of the NFL Draft this year,for any player to be drafted in the first 2-3 rounds is not by coincidence,and definitely they would have passed the ‘film’ test,media test e.t.c. Look at COACH WELSH He developed nobodies!!!Here we are letting our first round picks BUST!!! C’mon guys,lets not fool ourselves.Just remember all the pre-season blues we’ve gone into,we’ve got problems folks,let alone we haven’t even discussed the OFFENSE !!! Giving praise to two QBs who were both 1st in their NFL Draft School Please!! We’ll wait to see UNCLE FAVRE,and let the jury give the verdict on my case!!
As far as spikes goes i think he played really good last yr n with him and willis in there
they both play good together now with bowman and his speed n if briggs can keep playing good ’’whew’’’One thing i like about are defense you don’t know where the sacks are coming from because there coiming from everywhere n everyone!
by 49er_diva_recieva's on Aug 19, 2010 8:42 AM PDT up reply actions
i read until you said shilling...
then i started laughing and couldn’t read anymore.
'cause
shilling is baseball, right?
by Bob In Beaverton on Aug 19, 2010 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions
Shilling
Should l say PENNY .I still think we are putting our team on a pedestal.Last year it was all about RUNNING the ball,and that we would be winners.Yet we failed and got an 8-8 record.Now this year is that we are easily gonna be the NFC-W Division Winners.But unfortunately so far whats on paper and stats hasn’t translated itself to Film.
no beacuse
the brits use shillings and pounds to pay for their tea and crumpets
Balmer
you can blame him for a lot of his failures. As far as the rest of the D-Line goes, watch the Indy game. The depth looks great right now. McDonald is playing well and could take Sopoaga for LDE mid-year. Mitchell, RJF, even Evans had a decent game. Sure these guys are relative unknowns but that doesn’t mean they can’t play. They are all strong in the run game and many are showing disruptive penetration as well.
Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Tedd Ginn/Delanie Walker, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook...which one is getting the ball and where?
Let's talk on Twitter
I hope Tukuafu gets a chance.
His motor never stops turnin’. He recorded a sack and a tackle in limited action with no prep time as he was signed just a few days before the game. In one game, he did more than Balmer did in 2 years.
by ericalancanty on Aug 19, 2010 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions
RJF and Mitchell
look good as the big hogs too…
Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Tedd Ginn/Delanie Walker, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook...which one is getting the ball and where?
Let's talk on Twitter
yeah I'm actually way excited about the kid
I think his performance on Sunday went a long way towards him making the roster
Logic merely enables one to be wrong with authority
gonna be tough
with Franklin eating up a spot, if they keep 7 Tuk has to compete with Mitchell and Evans (who’s got a nagging injury though is well liked/respected on team, veteran/smart player). Mitchell has looked good to me as well and can play inside if necessary.
Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Tedd Ginn/Delanie Walker, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook...which one is getting the ball and where?
Let's talk on Twitter
Evans has done nothing
I’ve not been impressed by Evans thus far in his career.
Logic merely enables one to be wrong with authority
ILB
I will concede I have a slight worry here because Wilhelm isn’t impressing me at all, and beyond him now that Scotty Mac is gone…we have two UDFA’s in Balogun and Kristick. Bowman is the truth though, don’t sleep on him.
Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Tedd Ginn/Delanie Walker, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook...which one is getting the ball and where?
Let's talk on Twitter
ILB's -If Takeo & Patrick Are Injured
If these 2 guys get injured or are out for a game or two we are in deep sh*t!!!What are we gonna do,l think its time for thinking of who to draft in 2011 NFL DRAFT.
any team would be in deep ish
if both their ILB’s went down.
Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Tedd Ginn/Delanie Walker, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook...which one is getting the ball and where?
Let's talk on Twitter
Wilhelm is nothing more than veteran presence
I never expected much from him. I actually had high hopes for McKillop but that’s not gonna happen this year.
Logic merely enables one to be wrong with authority
I was DIS-impressed with him on Sunday
really. You’d see a play and then you’d see Wilhelm afterwards making his way there.
Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Tedd Ginn/Delanie Walker, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook...which one is getting the ball and where?
Let's talk on Twitter
I'm guessing he makes a lot of the defensive checks/calls
which is the “veteran” presence…beyond that??
Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Tedd Ginn/Delanie Walker, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook...which one is getting the ball and where?
Let's talk on Twitter
OLB's
Brooks has a freak injury, he’ll be back for reg. season. He’s staying in shape. Briggs has looked STOUT thus far too, LaWho? I don’t know that we need him and if his injuries don’t subside he’ll be getting the Brandon Jones treatment real soon.
Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Tedd Ginn/Delanie Walker, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook...which one is getting the ball and where?
Let's talk on Twitter
Safeties
Smith is going to play more in Dime this year, so yeah, I think they knew that when they brought Mays in…besides, you couldn’t pass him up at 49. Also, Goldson could walk this year so Smith’s development is just a positive all around. Lewis is one hit away from…so yeah…I’m starting to believe all 5 safeties are a lock right now.
Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Tedd Ginn/Delanie Walker, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook...which one is getting the ball and where?
Let's talk on Twitter
After this year we could be down to only 3 safeties in Smith, Taylor and Mays.
I like those three and hope we can keep Goldson.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
right
but better than just Smith and Taylor…especially if we’re gonna start using Safeties in Dime, we’ll need 4 at MINIMUM.
Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Tedd Ginn/Delanie Walker, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook...which one is getting the ball and where?
Let's talk on Twitter
Smith's been outstanding thus far
If he can avoid the injury bug he might be the guy we’re looking for to replace Goldson
Logic merely enables one to be wrong with authority
he's been "the Goldson of the 2010 camp"
per one of the beat guys…coming up with all the INT’s in camp (the most anyways)
Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Tedd Ginn/Delanie Walker, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook...which one is getting the ball and where?
Let's talk on Twitter
We could have passed on Mays and took a corner.
Black Sand Ninja!!!
by rlott#42 on Aug 19, 2010 11:26 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
could have
also could be left with 2 safeties if we hadn’t taken Mays and Goldson walks and Lewis retires…I don’t know if there is a “right answer”
Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Tedd Ginn/Delanie Walker, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook...which one is getting the ball and where?
Let's talk on Twitter
Franklin is only waiting till about 2 weeks from the regular season game to sign.
It keeps him out of the nutcracker and other drills that leave him open to injury, that is why he is still waiting. Not for money, it is long pass the deadline to sign him long term.
by ericalancanty on Aug 19, 2010 9:06 AM PDT up reply actions
Can you say "Negative Nancy"?
You DO realize we had a good defense last year, right London? I don’t think we got significantly worse on defense, either.
Also, the “if everybody gets hurt” stuff is ridiculous. Name a team that wouldn’t be hurt if starters got hurt. It’s not even a arguable point.
"Bears are crazy, Willie. They'll bite your head off if you're wearing steak on it."
This aubroyo mess has me concerned not that he won't play 4 us this yr
just will he be ready or in shape,,as far as the reggie smith factor i hope this pre-seaon he can consistently keep his play up cuzz i want him 2 snatch that spot from michael lewis he has more speed n range then michael lewis n we have 2 stop settling 4 that ohh michael lewis plays the run good we don’t need him 2 play the run good we got that handle i feel thats just a exscuse 4 him when he plays the pass ’’HORRIBLE’’
by 49er_diva_recieva's on Aug 19, 2010 8:33 AM PDT reply actions
I see Lewis in on run downs, and Smith in on obvious pass plays.
by ericalancanty on Aug 19, 2010 9:02 AM PDT up reply actions
Lewis will spend some time at LB in nickel
and Smith will be the SS on those downs. Lewis will see significant time on 1st and 2nd downs though. So, that’s just to elaborate on your post.
Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Tedd Ginn/Delanie Walker, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook...which one is getting the ball and where?
Let's talk on Twitter
Wait a minute.
Even if the offense had been able to apply a consistent attack, it would have been tough to overcome 28 points…….
If the Offense struggles and goes 3 and out many times, it gives the other team more opportunities to score to reach that 28 point total. If the Offense is more consistant and moves the ball and eats up more clock, then the other team has less opportunities to score therefore reducing their chances to put up points…. let alone 28 average in losing games.
some of those 28 points wouldn't be on the board
less possessions, no DTD’s, etc.
Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Tedd Ginn/Delanie Walker, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook...which one is getting the ball and where?
Let's talk on Twitter
In the games the 49ers lost and the defense got lit up it was when the offense couldn’t sustain a single drive in the 1st half. The defense could hold the fort down for about 3 drives but would break with another 3-and-out.
Example Games: Falcons, Packers, Eagles, Texans
Another game it looks like the 49ers gave up a lot of points was the Titans, but Smith threw 4 INT’s in the 2nd half leading to almost all those points.
He threw 3 Ints against the titans
And was sacked 4 times.
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Aug 19, 2010 6:11 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
that's possible
Honestly if it had been Hill there might not have been 3 INTs but there would have been 8-10 sacks. That was one of the games where Alex was running for his life. That and the Eagles game were the shining examples of horrible OLine play.
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Aug 20, 2010 1:59 AM PDT up reply actions
yes
he was responsible for 4 TO’s
Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Tedd Ginn/Delanie Walker, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook...which one is getting the ball and where?
Let's talk on Twitter
My point exactly.
Even if the offense had been able to apply a consistent attack, it would have been tough to overcome 28 points.
That was what Fooch wrote, I just don’t know how to highlite it in a different color to quote someone.
nm, WW beat me to it
Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Tedd Ginn/Delanie Walker, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook...which one is getting the ball and where?
Let's talk on Twitter
Not a lot of changes on defense
That’s right, only a few of the names are new on the team, but majority of the starters are pretty much the same, which I think is an advantage over brining in a bunch of new guys.
It will do wonders of having majority of the defense same as last year that will improve the defense growing together and trusting each other. This will make all of our starters slighty better, there is no way you can play around Patrick Willis for a year and not get better yourself. Additionally, our depth does seem better with the growth of the younger guys, which will add on to our consistency (consistency as in letting our starters rest for a play but letting a reliable backup come into the game).
Pretty great against most teams
but pretty awful against good consistent passing teams.
until they have a consistent pass rush or consistent press corners that is.
by whistlingmountain on Aug 19, 2010 9:40 AM PDT reply actions
pass rush will be better
I think. Our DB’s get in trouble playing off-zone. They are actually (Tae and Nate) good press corners.
Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Tedd Ginn/Delanie Walker, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook...which one is getting the ball and where?
Let's talk on Twitter
Doesn anyone know if Bowmann is going to play this Sunday
I would like to see him playing P-Willis position if he doesnt play this Sunday. It’ll be a good gauge of how Bowmann does in our defensive scheme.
he will
unless he re-aggrivates his shoulder between now and then
Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Tedd Ginn/Delanie Walker, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook...which one is getting the ball and where?
Let's talk on Twitter
I don't think
Mike and Mike can see out their studio window to the West Coast.
Plus, Mike and Ike are better.
by Bob In Beaverton on Aug 19, 2010 9:45 AM PDT reply actions
They'll be top 10 in league at worst
Top 5 is realistic, even top 3 is not a stretch. The offense just has to join the party now. If there will be too much pressure on the D to keep the scoring low, that’s just asking for trouble. Not just from a win/loss standpoint, but from a health one as well.
27 da. . .Shut up mango :P
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by Mangoman on Aug 19, 2010 9:55 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
Are U Sure?
Let us not get carried away folks.Lets wait for the first 4 games and then we can talk about rankings e.t.c.!!!
Same goes to you
Of course, based on your other posts, we may have 17 players on IR by week 4.
We’ll be fine.
"Bears are crazy, Willie. They'll bite your head off if you're wearing steak on it."
At least Top 10
They can already take the run away from every team in the league with some exception to Chris Johnson.
I see all these posts speculating as to where our D will "rank". There are many different ways
to rank a D. However, IMHO, there is only ONE defensive stat that matters… points allowed. All the rest is simply window dressing. Last season, our D was #4 in the entire NFL in terms of fewest points allowed. If we get everybody back healthy, and with a couple of new additions, we should do better. As has been pointed out by several others, our O increasing their TOP will do nothing but help the D.
As for personnel, I really like some of our young guys. I thought RJF played better than ok, I thought he did a very good job for his first start ever at NT. He’ll do nothing but improve. Somebody mentioned Tukuafu’s motor… I noticed that, also. I was also very impressed by both Briggs AND newcomer OLB Bruce Davis. At this point, I keep them plus Lawson, Haralson, and Brooks at OLB. I like keeping as many LBs as possible because they are usually such good ST players. At ILB, the day before Coffee retired, it was reported that Balogun just lit him up in a drill (he drilled him LOL). Maybe we PS him, and maybe Kristick, also, for ILB depth. At DB, I keep 4 corners and 5 safeties, because Smith has played CB and doubles as the #5 CB. If I were to only keep 4 safeties, Lewis would be my “odd man out” because of his combination of: history of concussions, high salary, age.
I am soooooooooo excited to watch this defense develop and jell. They have the potential to be “special”. I see this as the development/growth/jelling year for the D, and next year they could be universally acclaimed as being near or at the very top end (top 2 or 3) of all NFL Ds.
After all was said and done, a lot more got said than done.
You've certainly got a point
If you look at points allowed per game, we were ranked 4th. In yards allowed per game we were15th. A defensive unit can allow all kinds of yardage, but what counts in the end is what they allowed to get on the board. But yeah, if the D improves as far as allowing yards and shutting down the opponent all around, then we’d be solidly within the top 4 or better.
27 da. . .Shut up mango :P
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Manusky likes to give up a lot yards as long as he isn’t giving up points or 1st downs. He often gives up the underneath stuff on 3rd and long, and tends to play prevent defense (too early IMO) at the end of halves and games.
I don't mind the "keep it in front"
but they have to get better at closing the gaps when the ball is in the air. Keep it in front then WHAM! Be there for the stop right on completion.
Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Tedd Ginn/Delanie Walker, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook...which one is getting the ball and where?
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what worries me about cutting Lewis
is run support. Goldson is a beast in there, and I hope he’s wrapping up better now than last year…but Lewis had a nose for the ball man. I mean, he drops down to LB in Nickel, meaning he’s got to take on OL’s at times, TE’s…
Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Tedd Ginn/Delanie Walker, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook...which one is getting the ball and where?
Let's talk on Twitter
Agreed.
This unit should be top 5 this year.
Z!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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by ZeroIndulgence on Aug 19, 2010 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions
Certainly consistency is a big issue
But I’m a bit more concerned with some of the new additions and changes and how it could relate to some big plays being given up.
To start with what is consistent, we have Willis obviously, and very likely an improved Goldson. The base OLB’s are great in persuit and closing the edge against the run. The DL is solid, if not great, at holding the point of attack. In the secondary, Lewis is consistent and Spencer looks to have a rising stock. This alone should contribute to our defense not falling off at all.
Now for the new, we have Smith stepping in to the “Roman” role. That should provide better and more consistent nickel coverage. On top of this, it’s a very real possibility that Mays will begin to assume Lewis’ role in the nickel defense, which should also add some more potential turnovers in desperation situations for opposing offenses. However, this could also lead to the occassional slip up and allow a play that would normally be made easily.
Clements is returning and is said to look very good, but Brown is apparently moving outside with Clements moving to the slot coverage. Brown was bested by Bly last year, so it remains to be seen if he can really fill that role. We also have some other new faces mixing in there, so the secondary is a huge question mark.
Then there’s the DL which is in flux. Franklin has yet to report, and we’re currently counting on a second year player to man the most important position in the 3-4. We are also likely going to see at least one new rotation guy now that Balmer is gone. Can Mitchell (who I believe will make it) produce at least up to our accustomed standard? That remains to be seen. Also, will McDonald push for the starting position, and if so, will he be an upgrade over Soap?
The LB’s are the only solid part of this defense, which one could argue we have the best group in the league including all the depth.
That all said, I have faith that the D will turn in a top 10 performance. The question marks we have prevents me from saying top 5, but that could change after the first few weeks when we play a few solid offensive teams.
the DL will be better this year
I love MItchell, at least thus far. Guy can seriously play anywhere in base 3-4 and hold his own…even if he’s a backup.
Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Tedd Ginn/Delanie Walker, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook...which one is getting the ball and where?
Let's talk on Twitter
I'd prefer he sticks to end and leaves the nose to someone who focuses primarily on that
I’m sure he can play it, but considering our issues at DE (not including Smith) I want someone to finally get things right. The fact that I’m not hearing ringing endorsements of McDonald taking over Soap’s job, makes me think we don’t have the answer yet.
by 9thevolution on Aug 19, 2010 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions
McDonald had a really, REALLY good game at Indy
in Nickel against 1’s and LDE against 2’s. It’s not loud, just like you don’t hear JOsh Morgan’s name mentioned but he’s solid. All it takes is an injury or a good performance by McD and a bad one by Soap and he’ll start to eat Soap’s reps.
Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Tedd Ginn/Delanie Walker, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook...which one is getting the ball and where?
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True
I’d have liked for him to already stolen the job. That’s how I’d hoped he could play this season. I have no problems with him at DT in nickel, I just want to have a clone of Smith at LDE.
by 9thevolution on Aug 19, 2010 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions
I love McDonald
have for a long time and I want him taking Soap’s job
Logic merely enables one to be wrong with authority
looked good at the point
something he’s needed to work on (taking doubles, run stuffing)
Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Tedd Ginn/Delanie Walker, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook...which one is getting the ball and where?
Let's talk on Twitter
MItchell DID pay NT in the Indy game
some, and he held the point against double teams pretty well, even penetrated some.
Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Tedd Ginn/Delanie Walker, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook...which one is getting the ball and where?
Let's talk on Twitter
Still have Franklin for this year...
so I’d prefer if he can try to settle in at end to hopefully shore that up before the end of the season.
by 9thevolution on Aug 19, 2010 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions
I always liked Soap
When he got his extension a few years ago, I had hoped he would really turn it on. He hasn’t, so now I’m looking for someone better to replace him.
by 9thevolution on Aug 19, 2010 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions
he's a good guy, good locker room influence
he knows the defense well, works hard, etc. But he just get’s pushed around a lot.
Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Tedd Ginn/Delanie Walker, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook...which one is getting the ball and where?
Let's talk on Twitter
The passing D worries me the most...
Against good passing teams (Indy, GB, even Minny to an extent), the Niners D had problems stopping the offensive attack last season. Their coverage could be beat, they’d give up long gains, and their pass rush was non-existant. Against poor passing attacks, the Niners passing D would look great, and get sacks and their coverage looked good.
To become a truly elite defense, they have to show up and play good defense against everyone. The ability to shut down the elite passing attack is part of what makes a great defense a great defense. Do I think the Niners can do that? For sure…A healthy Clements, another year of Spencer, another year of experience for Brown, more experience for Smith…these guys could all develop more and become a good secondary unit. If Lawson can stay healthy and Briggs can continue to develop, the pass rush can get better. But thats just it…lots of ifs.
I think the passing defense for the Niners will be the key this year. If they make strides and can start shutting down the elite attacks more consistantly, then they will be a top 3 defense, and maybe the #1 defense this season. If they continue to let the Mannings and the Rodgers and the Brees’ pass all over them without laying a glove on them in the pass rush, well, this will once again be just a good, but not elite, unit.
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by ZeroIndulgence on Aug 19, 2010 10:30 AM PDT reply actions
I'm not too concerned
on paper it looks bad because of the yardage we give up but that’s due to the “bend don’t break” philosophy. We need to get some more INTs and a better pass rush late in games and we’ll be fine.
Logic merely enables one to be wrong with authority
I don't think that's the philosophy
I think they are just on the field a lot. They were very good at denying 1st downs.
They were basically tied for 4th in Yds/play allowed (5.0). Jets at 4.2 and 3 other teams at 4.8-4.9.
When this .sig was awaiting the Final Sabean Apocalypse, I never once in a million years suspected it would be a "good" Apocalypse. Bengie... Don't let the door hit you IN YOUR GIANT ASS on the way out!
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game totally stalled and basically dead at this point
"tied for 4th in Yds/play allowed (5.0). Jets at 4.2 and 3 other teams at 4.8-4.9"
That would make our D 5th (or perhaps tied for 5th) since there were 4 other Ds (the Jets and 3 other teams) ranked ahead of us…
After all was said and done, a lot more got said than done.
banned
Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Tedd Ginn/Delanie Walker, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook...which one is getting the ball and where?
Let's talk on Twitter
Basically what that 8-8 record told us last year...
When they play good/solid/contending teams, whatever you want to call them, they need to step it up big time. After that Minn. game they just did not show up against good teams. You can minus AZ if you feel that strongly about them. But like “little” Mike said, it was very disappointing.
As for Golic, why even show up to work if your not going to do your research? He still thinks Hill is our #2 QB. Your only job is to watch sports!!!…wtf? Clearly all he knew about this team was that Sing is our coach and he is putting together a good D. Oh and he likes P-52. Dip$#!t
3rd down defense and offense will determine hoe good the defense is.
Im still meh on the QB and OL.
Black Sand Ninja!!!
by rlott#42 on Aug 19, 2010 11:22 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
Honestly more important to the D
Is that we come out of the gate playing well early in games on offense. If we can get a 7-0 lead on teams and hopefully push it further from there we put pressure on them to make plays while we chew the clock with Gore Dixon Westbrook. It will be extremely difficult to play against us from behind and teams will make mistakes and turn the ball over in attempting to do so.
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Aug 19, 2010 11:36 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
this
is key. We need to come out attacking. Tired of 3 punts in the 1st quarter
Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Tedd Ginn/Delanie Walker, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook...which one is getting the ball and where?
Let's talk on Twitter
I think it's highly improbable
for the Defense to be better than it was last year. I think the best case scenario is that we retain our gains from 2008 and don’t regress too much on the DL. IF the offense improves and keeps the D off the field, I think we can improve superficially even if not on a per-play basis.
I have my concerns about a pass rush that came out of no where to be 3rd in the league in sacks and adjusted sack rate (FO stat). I am actually less concerned about the run D which was solid but not spectacular. In coverage, the Niners were mediocre against #1 WRs and RBs but great against everyone else. I don’t know how to call that trend, but clearly lack of a shutdown CB hurts them against #1 WR.
When this .sig was awaiting the Final Sabean Apocalypse, I never once in a million years suspected it would be a "good" Apocalypse. Bengie... Don't let the door hit you IN YOUR GIANT ASS on the way out!
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game totally stalled and basically dead at this point
can you explain specifically why you think we wont improve?
Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Tedd Ginn/Delanie Walker, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook...which one is getting the ball and where?
Let's talk on Twitter
pretty much this
if you consider some random component to their (and really, every team’s) success, then they simply have farther downward to go than upwards. So, I expect them to be slightly worse without other information.
I don’t see that the secondary has improved substantially, and Franklin’s hold out and Brooks’ injuries are not really accounted for. If they signed a new hot CB or S I think I would like their chances of retaining a top 3/5 ranking much better.
Now, of course the OFFENSE is a much bigger question mark, but at least they are bringing in new linemen (weakest unit in NFL – both sides of the ball).
On the face of it – this is essentially the same team that went 8-8 last year (I guess with 9+ pythagorean wins). I could see giving them a win for OC consistency and new linemen (although that could just as well backfire, starting two rookie linemen), but I think predicting 10 wins is a stretch. It’s attainble, to be sure, but I think they are much more likely to go 8-8 than 11-5.
When this .sig was awaiting the Final Sabean Apocalypse, I never once in a million years suspected it would be a "good" Apocalypse. Bengie... Don't let the door hit you IN YOUR GIANT ASS on the way out!
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game totally stalled and basically dead at this point
This is the debate I tried to press upon Danny. If you look at the distribution of wins on a bell curve the mean is at 8 wins and 75% of the league will be within 8 wins +/- 3 games. Only 4 teams will be worse, 4 teams will be better on any give season. Predicting an 8-8 season really isn’t much of a prediction at all, you’d look smart predicting the entire league having an 8-8 season.
However one thing I do remember Danny noting is the regression to mean just doesn’t automatically happen, it’s not a given force of nature like the earth’s gravity to the sun. In football, you can rely on bad units making changes to improve themselves. Good units also have reasons for regressing back to the mean, roster turnover, injuries, age, career years, etc. So far you cannot attribute any of those factors to the 49ers defensive unit so what is the explanation for regressing back to the mean?
well, I like to look smart
I will be honest – I have no idea what the correct regression factor is for team defense in today’s NFL is. I guess you could look up the correllation year-to-year in Yds allowed per play. But I do know that you do NOT need “factors” to assume regression; in fact it’s exactly the opposite. You must assume things will regress unless you have other evidence (new players, young players likely to improve) that cancels out the negative effects (players having “peak” years; old players getting worse).
Danny’s wrong – regression to the mean DOES automatically happen. It’s just that it might be canceled by other effects in the opposite direction (random or real factors)
Was the 49ers defense particularly lucky on injuries last year? Not sure. But I do know that that pass rush materialized out of thin air. It was even terrible in last year’s preseason. So, I am going to be safe and assume that it’s just as likely to disappear or get worse than it is to get even better.
When this .sig was awaiting the Final Sabean Apocalypse, I never once in a million years suspected it would be a "good" Apocalypse. Bengie... Don't let the door hit you IN YOUR GIANT ASS on the way out!
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game totally stalled and basically dead at this point
You cannot assume regression to the mean will automatically happen. If that is the case than Peyton Manning is severely due an average or lackluster season.
Now if you want to make the case that the pass rush did come out of thin air last year and it’s back to being their true self (previous seasons performance) than that is a regression to the mean argument, i.e. regressing back to their average performance (which is below average).
yes you can, it just regresses to his true talent level... which is somewhere between his past numbers and the mean
I’m not even sure if Peyton Manning had a better or worse year than “expected”… It was about the same as 2007-2008 but not as good as 2006 (didn’t look back further). But Manning has 10 YEARS of All Star Performance. Not 1.
The question is – what is the true talent level of the 49ers defensive unit as a whole? The less information you have (i.e, how long have they played together) the further you regress towards the MEAN.
That’s the whole bloody question. Are they really the Peyton Manning of defensive units? Or are they Dante Culpepper (2004)?
When this .sig was awaiting the Final Sabean Apocalypse, I never once in a million years suspected it would be a "good" Apocalypse. Bengie... Don't let the door hit you IN YOUR GIANT ASS on the way out!
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game totally stalled and basically dead at this point
They are the Payton
Because the QB of the D is the middle LB. Our MLB is the Payton Manning of MLBs
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Aug 20, 2010 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions
SI Has 49ers as #3 Fantasy D
And Wilis as #1 fantasy defensive player, but fantasy is just that LOL
On the field I believe the 49ers are a top 5 d with the Jets, Cowboys, Vikings and Steelers. Accordingly, if Clements returns to old form like he was on the verge of doing last season before getting injured it will make all the difference. Spencer is much improved, Brown has more experience behind him, Goldson is near all pro level already and add a combo of Lewis and Mays and you take a weakness of two seasons ago and make it a strength. The LB corp is one of the best 34 versions in the NFL and the d-line does what it should in this scheme. You won’t see a lot of sacks from the d-line because that is not their goal in a 34 defense. Additionally, I expect Bowman to really improve the depth at ILB with Wilhelm and such. Overall, the 49ers defense will be much improved thanks in no small part to an improved offense that won’t go 3 and out as much. The addition of Westbrook is a huge improvement over Coffee on 3rd downs and believe it or not that will have a huge impact on the play of the defense
"He who lives on hope will die fasting" Benjamin Franklin was a fool
"If we are thinking playoffs, why not look towards the mountaintop"
I like my quote better
by nocal81(Vincent) on Aug 19, 2010 1:35 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
I would really like for Clements to return to “old form,” as well. However, I don’t think he was on the verge of doing so last season before his injury.
Clements was on fire last year before his injury
Dude was all over the field making plays.
Logic merely enables one to be wrong with authority
he is a complete CB
he might not be a shutdown CB, but he wants to be in on every play, including running plays
Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Tedd Ginn/Delanie Walker, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook...which one is getting the ball and where?
Let's talk on Twitter
Should be a top rated defense
They are going to be very good against the run. They were last season and there is nothing to suggest they won’t be good again this season.
Pass rush is always a popular criticism. I though they were above average last year. Often I hear the description inconsistent from fans but expectations out of order. No defense is going to get a consistent pass rush 60 minutes for all 16+ games. I thought the pass rush lacked in the Falcons game and parts of a few others, that is still pretty good overall. Asking for a constant pass rush is like asking the QB to pass for 400 yards every game.
As far as where the pass rush will come from, the 49ers have more options than last season. Justin Smith still looks to be wearing a big, bold red S under his jersey. Ray McDonald looked good in the first preseason game. Remember he came back Week 1 last season from major knee surgery. Manny made a lot strides late last season, actually finding away to get pressure and sacks while covering his run responsibility on 1st & 2nd down. Brooks is a rocket off the corner. Haralson was a big disappointment for me yet I heard at camp he had a serious hip issue all last season. Briggs will make the roster and should provide some rush ability while LaBoy is likely to get cut very soon. Overall the entire OLB was sorta green and inexperienced last season, this year these guys should be entering their prime. This doesn’t even get into the lack of 49ers blitzing last season, haven’t really got into sending the ILB through the A gap or a DB blitz.
I like the secondary and are probably the key to being great. I doubt any defense is going to be able stop Manning or Rodgers for passing for yards and 1st downs, it’s gonna happen. What they need to do this year is get more ball-hawkish. If they tip the ball up more in coverage it will lead to more big turnovers. Singletary really wanted them to be more aggressive in coverage last year, this year they might get the message. The best way to beat good passing offense is to produce a few INT’s and turn the scoreboard on them.
I'm actually very excited about our d-line possibilities this year
Smith is going to be his usual great self. Franklin can play and we’ve got guys who can back him up late in the game for fresh legs. At the left end spot McDonald can provide a better pass rush than Soap. Mitchell has been hustling all over the field and looked good in pre-season. The new guy also looked impressive in limited action, so we’ve got some good depth.
I’m concerned about pass rush from our OLB though. Outside of Brooks we don’t have any OLB who can rush the passer consistently.
Logic merely enables one to be wrong with authority
Briggs
remember that name. He’s probably further along than Brooks was at this point last year.
Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Tedd Ginn/Delanie Walker, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook...which one is getting the ball and where?
Let's talk on Twitter
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