Reason for hope?

by grantmp on Sep 17, 2010 8:54 AM PDT

I know that this comparison may be a little bit crazy (OK, maybe a lot crazy), but hear me out. With a hat tip to Bill Simmons, it's crucial that we not overreact after Week 1's debacle. His words? "home dogs + raucous crowd + [Defensive] TD + dumb turnovers + bad weather + [Jimmy Raye] = FLUKE UPSET!!!!"

Here's a box score from a September 2003 week 1 game between the Patriots and Bills: final score? Buffalo 31, New England 0.

Here is the box score from last week's week 1 game between the 49ers and Seahawks: final score? Seattle 31, San Francisco 6.

Delving into the similarities between the two games...

1) Bills were home in 2003. Seattle was at home last week.

2) Bills scored on a pick-6. Seattle scored on a pick-6.

3) Bills won the turnover battle 4 to 2. Seattle won the turnover battle 2 to 1.

4) Bills (10 for 119 yds) had fewer penalties than the Patriots (12 for 121). Last week? 'Hawks (5 for 35): 9ers (8-60)

5) Pats QB had a bad day: Brady went 14 for 28 (50% comp) for 123 yds, 4 INTs, 0 TDs, 22.5 rating

49ers QB had a bad day: Smith went 26 for 45 (57% comp) for 225 yds, 2 INTs, 0 TDs, 52.5 rating

Interestingly...

1) Bills outgained the Pats in 2003 322 total yards to 239. 49ers outgained the Seahawks 263 to 242.

Even more interestingly, the 2003 Patriots went 14-2 having gone 9-7 the previous year, and the 2003 Bills went 6-10, having gone 8-8 the previous year.

The Pats starting receivers were Deion Branch and Troy Brown, neither of whom caught more than 60 passes for more than 804+ yards. Tom Brady finished the year with 3600 yards passing, and the Pats didn't have a 1000-yard running back. Somehow I think the Niners may have some better numbers than those...

Now, I'm not sure that Alex Smith will morph into 2003-era Tom Brady--in fact I doubt it, and I don't expect the 2010 49ers to go 14-2. But if the plays can come in quicker, and the team can rally around this early loss, they have a chance to be better, and maybe even to be special. GO NINERS!

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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Extremely comparable situations:

Patriots 2003
Head Coach: Bill Bellicheck
Quaterback: Tom Brady

niners 2010
Head Coach: Mike Singletary
Quarterback: Alex Smith

Almost identical in talent, and ability.

by BayLife5518 on Sep 17, 2010 9:05 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs

+1

for sarcasm.

by Andrew Davidson on Sep 17, 2010 9:56 AM PDT up reply actions

yeah, yeah, I get it.

Belchick is a better coach than Singletary (who’s starting to wear on me with his “Let me tell you how I’m going to answer this question” schtick, actually), and A. Smith hasn’t made the playoffs, let alone won a Super Bowl (as Brady did in 2001). But the point was that sometimes a few plays early in the game can make the script look entirely different. What the Seattle loss reminded me most of was a combination of last year’s game at Atlanta and last year’s game at Seattle. In the former, the Niners had their run and short passing games shut down, and gave up big plays in the passing game, which made them radically change their offensive approach, and in the latter, the Niners made so many mistakes that Seattle stayed in the game and finally won it at the end.

I may hate your timing, but I can't hate your reason for leaving. Vaya con Dios, Glen Coffee.

by grantmp on Sep 17, 2010 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions

+1. That was hilarious.

just think Tracy Morgan on snl. :)

by Waiting4JoshMorgan on Sep 20, 2010 2:06 AM PDT up reply actions

There's on more similarity you forgot

Just prior to the beginning of the regular season, New England cut long time locker room favourite Lawyer Milloy. Milloy went and signed with the Bills and Buffalo came out and simply dropped the hammer on the Pats.

Milloy was a much more important piece of the Patriots team than Michael Robinson was to the 49ers team, but both players were team captains and locker room good guys. Obviously the talent levels between Tom Brady and Alex Smith aren’t even comparable, and Coach Belichick has more Xs and Os knowledge in his cut-off hoodie than Coach Singletary could dream of.

It is a good example, however, of how a road favourite can suffer such a letdown on Kickoff Sunday to a lesser home dog. The rematch in New England saw the Patriots flip the score around on Buffalo, beating the Bills 31-0.

by Andrew Davidson on Sep 17, 2010 10:04 AM PDT reply actions

I could easily see the 49ers flipping the score on the Seahawks in the rematch

Touchdown Forty Niners!

by Effage on Sep 17, 2010 10:57 AM PDT up reply actions

nice!

Glad to hear that somebody is on the same page as I am. And yeah, I can see the script flipping next time around.
I think people underestimate how difficult it is for an Offensive Line to come off the ball in sync when you’re playing in a really noisy Away stadium (like Qwest). Non Niners-centric example? During his 1700 yard 2008 season, Michael Turner rushed with a 5.1 yard average when at home and a 3.9 ypc average when away.

I may hate your timing, but I can't hate your reason for leaving. Vaya con Dios, Glen Coffee.

by grantmp on Sep 17, 2010 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions

So you are saying Michael Robinson will be a Patriot in 2019?

Another parallel, the Patriots nose tackle didn’t arrive to camp until a week prior to the season.

Alex Smith led a rag tag group of spunky players to SB victory in 2006 after most pundits predicted the team would collapse and finish close to dead last … oh wait they did finish close to dead last.

by bignerd on Sep 17, 2010 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions

Wishful thinking going 14-2...

but this debacle could be mostly forgotten by mid season. If the Cards and Seahawks continue winning games and keep the division close, this stinker we put up last Sunday could come back to bite us badly, as in not making the playoffs and getting yet another re-staff.

by 9thevolution on Sep 17, 2010 11:06 AM PDT reply actions

49ers can win Monday night

I don’t think hope ,has anything to do with honest hard work. And the will to win, the key to victory is Drew Bress on his back . So the 49ers have to play with a lot of energy, don’t turn the ball over , and make first downs . 49ers keep it close they win 13 to 10

by clrncbll on Sep 17, 2010 1:54 PM PDT reply actions

Hard work, yes, and good tackling

The Saints make a living off 1-5 yard passed that turn into 10 yard gains because of missed tackles and set up the down-field passing game. If the Niners can keep those Rac yards down and cover down the field, they have a chance.

I may hate your timing, but I can't hate your reason for leaving. Vaya con Dios, Glen Coffee.

by grantmp on Sep 17, 2010 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions

Get serious, dingleberry is no bellicheck, and a. smith is no brady.

by bmcrae83@yahoo.com on Sep 18, 2010 2:40 PM PDT reply actions

You're no comedian, but it doesn't stop you from trying to be funny.

BOO, scared you!!! Blew you to Smitherines, Forget the Marines I have machines that like to spit and read mad magazines -R Noble

by rlott#42 on Sep 18, 2010 5:42 PM PDT up reply actions

It isn't working

"I always thought that Crabtree was a hard worker. He's not faking it. He's not the type to hide behind the curtain... he's always been a guy that works hard."
---Roger Craig

by 10forTech on Sep 19, 2010 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions

Misery loves company

Cards demolished by the Dirty Boids by an even bigger margin than ours against the Hens. Hens meanwhile getting their asses handed to them by the Horses.

Tra la la la la.

Did I mention the Cowgirls and the Vicadings both starting the season at 0-2?

Tra la la la la indeed!

"Careful Grasshopper ~ that's a god you're mauling." Master Takeo

by riderless on Sep 19, 2010 3:55 PM PDT reply actions

Cowpies off to 0-2...

makes my day. Even should the 49ers fail to pull their collective heads out, and end up getting obliterated by 35 points tomorrow, it will still have been a halfway pleasant week two because of that.

by asleepinSF on Sep 19, 2010 5:46 PM PDT up reply actions

Better than last year?

My brother gave me his prediction, and he said, “They won’t even win 6 games if Smith is the QB for all 16.” I thought that was a bit unrealistic given the talent on this team, and the fact that unlike the offense, the Defense usually comes out to play. But, taking all things in to account, I don’t disagree with him entirely. I’m giving them another 8 win season if Smith is the QB for all 16.

Gosh, I really need to stop it and give Smith another shot.

hahaha… how ridiculous does that sound? honestly. He’s in his 6th year ladies and gentlemen! (Meanwhile, Jason Campbell is benched after just the 2nd game of his raider career. We need Tom Cable up in dis bee-yaaaatch…)

I’ll be back after week 6. Later 49ersnation.

Ya boi,

Waiting4JoshMorgan

by Waiting4JoshMorgan on Sep 20, 2010 2:21 AM PDT reply actions

Smith vs. Brady (again) + Smith vs. Sanchez

I watched the Pats-Jets game yesterday, and came away thinking a bit more about the Smith-Brady comparison. The accuracy with which Brady can throw the football is pretty remarkable, particularly on shallow out-patterns and back-shoulder throws. That jumped out at me. I really wonder if Smith will ever develop that kind of accuracy, and more and more think that he will not.
But what I also noticed in the game was the number of times that Brady was just throwing the ball up to Moss and expecting Moss to come down with it. Sure, he was under duress, but when Smith makes bad throws, it’s often because he’s under duress too.
On the other side of the ball, Sanchez looked as good yesterday as he looked bad in Week 1. The Jets are probably the best kind of comparison for what the Niners have with Smith; both guys can get it done if the game is manageable and managed well by the coaches.

I may hate your timing, but I can't hate your reason for leaving. Vaya con Dios, Glen Coffee.

by grantmp on Sep 20, 2010 8:22 AM PDT up reply actions