FanPost

NFL Gambling, Odds and Forecasts Fanpost. UPDATE - Early Lines

I must say, I've been greatly entertained by this week in NFL football. Although the 49ers lost a heart breaker, that game tying drive and two-point conversion was simply awesome. Frank Gore had an oustanding game, and Alex Smith had an outstanding drive. This performance almost puts the 49ers in as Road Win Money Line Lock of the Week (if there was such a thing). The Detroit Lions frantic comeback cost me $25 and as a result I'm down $10.80 instead of turning a profit. The Houston Texans remarkable win over Washington cost Danny his big bet also, all $74.40 of it. Fooch, well his head went furtherst under water when the 49ers failed to overcome the Saints (-$87.38). Here's the standings as of right now:

 (LEGEND - W=Win, L(P)=Loss(Push), TBATS=total bets against the spread, TBML=total bets on money liine, TBPRLY=total bets on parlay, RTN=Return)


  W L(P) TBATS TBML TBPLY RTN ROLL GAIN
Fooch 2 6(1)  $  195.00  $    40.00  $    40.00  $  187.62  $  912.62 -$      87.38
Danny 1 2  $           -    $  168.30  $           -    $  112.14  $  943.84 -$      56.16
Andrew 4 4  $    80.00  $    15.00  $       5.00  $    89.20  $  989.20 -$      10.80

Onto the spread forecast, I'll post it in table form also, and keep in mind these are my forecasts to be calculated against the Vegas Lines starting as early as Tuesday morning. Last week didn't turn out great for me, but I did throw $5 away in an unneccesary parlay. I felt I was right on in the PHI/DET game last week, and I should have left my feelings out of it. With now two full weeks of data, it still doesn't make week 3 any easier. You'll see some lower spreads forecasted because of it (I think anyway). 

Forecast

VISTOR HOME FORECAST ACTUAL DIFF. BET TREND
CIN CAR CIN-3.5 CIN -3.5(-105) NONE CIN 78%
ATL NWO NWO-5.5 NWO -4(-110) -1.5 NWO 51%
PIT TB TB-2 PIT -3(+110) 5 PIT 90%
CLE BAL BAL-7.5 BAL -10.5(-110) 3 BAL 81%
TEN NYG NYG-3 NYG -3(-110) NONE NYG 72%
SF KC KC-3 SF -3(+110) 6 SF 90%
DAL HOU HOU-6.5 HOU -3(-105) -3.5 HOU 74%
BUF NE NE-14 NE -14.5(-105) 0.5 NE 99%
DET MIN MIN-5.5 MIN -10.5(-110) 5 DET 78%
WAS STL WAS-3.5 WAS-4(-110) 0.5 WAS 97%
OAK ARI ARI-3 ARI-4(-115) 1 OAK 58%
IND DEN DEN-2 IND -6 (-110) 8 IND 88%
SD SEA SD-4.5 SD -5.5(-110) 1 SD 67%
PHI JAX PHI-2.5 PHI -3 (EVEN) 0.5 PHI 85%
NYJ MIA MIA-2.5 MIA -1.5(-110) -1 MIA 62%
GB CHI GB-2.5 GB -3(-110) 0.5 GB 94%
 

UDPATE: Notice I've added Bet Trend (regarding ATS) in this new table. I'm including it this week because it plays a factor in my formula for determing which picks to lock in, and which picks to run from. Right now, because Houston is getting such a great payout, and isn't completely dominating the bet trend, I'll likely lock the game in as HOU to cover. Sometimes good payouts are red flags. In this case, I'm not digging the even money on Philadelphia to cover on the road. This game has huge push implications, and the bettors are heavily expecting an Eagles triumph. Right now, I'd completely consider Jacksonville on the ML, and likely avoid this ATS completely. San Francisco -3 to cover at +110 is scary when coupled with the 90% bet trends. I'm avoiding it (even though the 49ers fan in me says Niners all the way). Baltimore at -10.5 isn't cool, and the -550 money line stinks. The only money to be made is betting ATS, but there's no home data for the 2010 Ravens. Denver is a sneaky home dog to cover against Indy, but the push factor still isn't great. The 99% in New England's favor says "pick Buffalo, pick Buffalo", but all signs points toward NE covering. How about a 2-game parlay with BAL and NE in the ML? Sound good? We'll see.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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