First off, let me state the obvious: the 49ers will not win more than 4 games this season. Based on what we've seen the last three weeks, it's obvious that this team has deep-rooted problems that can't be solved with a wristband or a Mike Singletary pep talk. We're going to get slaughtered by the Falcons and Eagles. After starting 0-5, this team is going to implode even mor than it already has. This is going to be worse than 2007, and potentially worse than 2004.
Now I know that the stadium vote passing in June was a victory for the organization. But remember, that was just the first in a long and arduous process of getting a stadium built, a process that can - and, in my opinion, will - fall apart at any time. The reasons are endless.
- The bonds that will be sold are BBB-rated, one step above junk status.
- We're going to have to rely on money from the NFL, and the way the CBA negotiations are going right now, it seems unlikely that the league will be able to provide us with any money.
- In a down economy like this, no company is going to want to risk losing money on a stadium that may never get built.
- As Roger Noll has pointed out, we're making the same mistakes the Raiders made with the Coliseum in Alameda with respect to PSL's.
- To make matters worse, no company is going to want to finance a loser, which, as I said before, is what we will be when the season is over. Furthermore, no one is going to pay thousands of dollars for PSL's to see a team like this.
Now I know you may trot out the arguments about how Jed York is ZOMG SO SMART or about how we've got all these new sponsorships. But sponsorships don't mean anything; every team has official sponsors. Furthermore, if you listen to any of Jed York's interviews, he provides no actual facts about the stadium or its progress. He trots out a bunch of vag equivocations about how "markets are opening up" or "rates are going down", but provides no details, which leads me to believe that he's just trying to spin the situation in a good way.
Here's what I think will happen. The Santa Clara stadium will fail for the reasons I listed above. By that time, the Hunter's Point project will have moved on without us. The Raiders will not want to share the Santa Clara stadium as sharing with the 49ers will be too tough a pill to swallow for Al Davis. Sure, both teams are saying they're open to sharing a stadium, but it's just lip service. Al Davis will want a stadium all to himself in Oakland. By that time, our only alternative will be to either stay at the Stick or move to LA.
Why do I think the team should move to LA? It needs a new identity. If that means the Yorks selling (which I think they'll be forced to do, either to Ed Roski or Larry Ellison), so be it. LA is the nation's second largest market and NEEDS an NFL team. Can you imagine what it'll be like? A brand new, state-of-the-art stadium in the heart of Tinseltown. Just imagine Jack Nicholson and Kobe Bryant sitting in the luxury suites. Plus, if one of our guys starts dating a Kardashian, you KNOW that means we'll be winning a ring.
I know you guys don't like it. I don't either. But it's what's going to end up happening. I guess it's like breaking up with someone even if you don't want to because you know it's going to end up happening anyway.