A Bronco Fan Asks: Do the 49ers want Kyle Orton?

by LiteUpThatHalo on Jan 12, 2011 2:40 PM PST

Multiple sources have reported that the Denver Broncos' FO are putting Kyle Orton on the trading block (no surprise), and are demanding at least a 2nd round pick for compensation. Would the 49ers give that up?

Over at the SBNation site of the Broncos (MileHighReport) there is no consensus on whether or not we will end up getting a 2nd round pick for Orton. Frankly, my opinion is that his current worth is a mid-3rd rounder. But some believe that there will be a small bidding war for Orton's services, and that though the initial offerings would be low round picks, that eventually one team would step up and be willing to to give up their 2nd-rounder to get him. They cite the numerous teams that need a QB, believe they can compete with a competent QB in the near future, and don't necessarily want to take the risk on a 1st round pick on Locker/Mallet/Others and have to wait as their window closes while the QB grows. Those teams would include the Vikings, Cardinals, Titans,Dolphins, and the Niners. They also believe that there's a chance a team who wants a young QB would also want a veteran while their QB is being groomed, and those teams include the Panthers, Bengals, and Bills, especially with Orton only being under a one year contract.

The argument for us falling short of a 2nd round pick, and settling for something like a 4th or a 5th, is that although there is a large contingent of teams that could use a proven QB now, there is also plenty of options for QBs not coming out of the draft. Vince Young, Kevin Kolb, and Donovan McNabb can all be cited as other possibilities for those teams previously mentioned instead of Orton. Not to mention that those teams might choose to take a rookie QB instead.

Both sides have valid arguments in my opinion, and before I keep boring you with Bronco-related material, I'll pose the obvious question. Do you want the 49ers to trade a 2nd round pick for Kyle Orton?

Kyle-orton-8-2009-nfl-denver-broncos-oakland-qwsldb_medium

via www.exposay.com

If you're one of those Niners fans that's unfamiliar with Orton, here's his statline (13 games started)

QB Rating: 87.5, 3653 yards, 20 TDs, 9 INTs, and a completion percentage of 58.1% on 1952 attempts.

To be honest, Kyle Orton was never well received in Denver, although there was a good minority who always liked him. This is most due to the fact that Orton is not that flashy, sexy QB that most fans clamor for at the position. He will usually not be the reason you win the game, but he takes pride in making sure that he's never the reason you lose. He simply never got his feet wet in Denver, after being brought in as the replacement forJay Cutler the fans/media never really gave him a chance. Add on the drafting of Tebow this year, the fans were constantly campaigning for the benching of Orton, even though he led the league in yards for a good proportion of the year. But Orton can play, he can lead a winning team, and he can make a lot of plays. No matter what team he plays for next year, I can almost guarantee he'll simply put up Top 10-Top 20 QB production. I think it's important to note he had most of his success this year with the complete lack of a running game, and many speculate that he played through some games knowing that if Tebow touched the starting field, it would be tough for him to win his job back.

Strengths: Accurate, Great Leader, Accuracy and ability to throw deep, Goes through his progressions well, He Protects the Football, Very Quiet and just goes about business, Consistently makes the right decisions

Weaknesses: Lack of mobility, Has trouble throwing under pressure, His small amount of picks seems to come at the wrong time

Thanks and good luck on the upcoming season and 2011 draft!

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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I actually really like Kyle Orton. And in a West Coast passing offense, I think his accuracy could fit in really well here. I’m not sure I’d give up a 2nd rounder for him. I do think that with a QB with his skill set and experience, the Niners could very easily win their division next season. However, I wouldn’t want the Niners to bid against themselves. So if we could get him for a 3rd or 4th, all the better.

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by ZeroIndulgence on Jan 12, 2011 2:44 PM PST reply actions

Kyle Orton is very, very good at football. We would be lucky to have him or anyone like him.

It looks like dancing frog in the sky because it's green.

by howtheyscored on Jan 12, 2011 3:14 PM PST up reply actions

Lucky to have another average QB? Boy, have our standards as 49er fans fallen since the glory years.

by BustaTheRippa on Jan 12, 2011 3:48 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

Orton is not an average quarterback.

It looks like dancing frog in the sky because it's green.

by howtheyscored on Jan 12, 2011 4:01 PM PST up reply actions

Thanks for proving that. Great logic! Was it the 58% comp. pct in one of the more QB friendly systems around that showed you his greatness?

by BustaTheRippa on Jan 12, 2011 4:14 PM PST up reply actions

List of QB’s I would no dobt take over Orton currently in the league.

1)Brady
2)Brees
3)Manning
4)Rodgers
5)Rivers
6)Ryan
7)Flacco
8)Eli
9)Roethlisberger
10)Romo
11)Schaub
12) Cutler
13) Vick
14) Freeman

Then there are my bubble guys that are right on par with him:

Garrard
Cassell
McNabb

Any of these you disagree with that you would wholeheartedly rank below Orton?

by BustaTheRippa on Jan 12, 2011 4:20 PM PST up reply actions

That’s kind of silly, though. I don’t specifically agree with your list, but that’s beside the point. The point is this: Is there a single player on that list of 14 who you would even hesitate to take if you could, or who you wouldn’t be absolutely thrilled to have? A single name? So Orton is barely on the outside of a list of guys any sane fan would be absolutely thrilled to have on their team, without a second’s hesitation?

That’s not an indictment. That’s a defense.

It looks like dancing frog in the sky because it's green.

by howtheyscored on Jan 12, 2011 4:31 PM PST up reply actions

My point is that IMHO he ranks around average in the league. I’m sick of average QB play. I want greatness at the position. Now as I said further down the thread, he would make for a nice stop gap if the price is right while grooming a QBOTF. We’re not gonna win a superbowl with him at the helm.

by BustaTheRippa on Jan 12, 2011 4:34 PM PST up reply actions

I think you’re seriously misinterpreting what “league average” means for an NFL quarterback. 46 quarterbacks attempted at least 100 passes last season, and 68 quarterbacks took professional snaps last season. Top 15 is not the same as average. Top 15 is a very, very good thing.

It looks like dancing frog in the sky because it's green.

by howtheyscored on Jan 12, 2011 4:38 PM PST up reply actions

in fact, "league average" would be a MASSIVE improvement

Maybe we wouldn’t win a superbowl with him at the helm, but we won’t NOT be winning a superbowl with him at the helm because it’s him at the helm.

Props to York/Baalke for reeling in Harbaugh. Now everybody get back to work!
twitter me @grantmp1

by grantmp on Jan 12, 2011 4:39 PM PST up reply actions

Okay, I guess it means a league average “starting” QB. I disagree with you that a league average “starting qb” is very, very good. We’ll have to agree to disagree there.

Either way, he doesn’t blow me away and he’s only a small upgrade from Alex Smith.

by BustaTheRippa on Jan 12, 2011 4:40 PM PST up reply actions

Wow. He’s much better than Alex Smith. I don’t see how you can possibly defend that statement.

It looks like dancing frog in the sky because it's green.

by howtheyscored on Jan 12, 2011 4:46 PM PST up reply actions

I mean, there isn’t a single measure, statistical or scouting, that doesn’t say Orton is much better than Smith.

It looks like dancing frog in the sky because it's green.

by howtheyscored on Jan 12, 2011 4:48 PM PST up reply actions

What was the difference in their play this season?

1) He played more games, because he didn’t have Mike “my only football decision is to switch a QB” Singletary.

2) TD/INT ratio, which is one of the more ridiculous regurgitated stats around.

I usually hate defending Alex, as he is a massive bust, but a logical fan would tell you that he is an average QB.

I’d also point out that Josh McDaniels ability to scheme and draw up passing plays is much better than what Alex had to go through this season on the worst schematical offensive team in the league

by BustaTheRippa on Jan 12, 2011 4:52 PM PST up reply actions

Hang on while I put this together.

It looks like dancing frog in the sky because it's green.

by howtheyscored on Jan 12, 2011 5:00 PM PST up reply actions

I didn’t want to hang on, so I went ahead without you.

by Andrew Davidson on Jan 12, 2011 5:05 PM PST up reply actions

Bah, I was putting together an image, but it was going to end up being about 35,000 pixels too big. It was basically looking at the PFR + stats for both players’s 2010 seasons and careers, and the FO stats for both players from last season.

Basically, Alex Smith had a better completion percentage last season. In every other statistical category for last season and their careers, Orton has been much, much better. Unequivocally.

You can compare the stats very easily on footballoutsiders or pro football reference.

It looks like dancing frog in the sky because it's green.

by howtheyscored on Jan 12, 2011 5:14 PM PST up reply actions

I disagree about TD/INT ratio

if you want to talk about a ridiculous regurgitated stat, let’s talk about QB Rating. TD to INT ratio is actually pretty relevant. Wait, unless your cool with a QB that has a 1:1 TD:INT. A two to one ratio is better than average, especially with the number of pass attempts Orton had in 2010.

Also, Orton played in 13 games, Alexis played in 11. Orton threw 498 passes (compared to Smith’s 342) yet still had a higher Yards per attempt (7.3 to 6.9) with a similar completion percentage. Orton also had a similar sack rate to Smith, yet still managed to put up better numbers. Yes Orton threw in a pass oriented offense, but Smith had a competent (sort of) running game to back him up and he still stunk. Orton is twice, if not three times, the QB that Smith is.

McDaniels or no McDaniels, Orton > Smith. In fact, many could and likely will argue that Smith had the better supporting cast in San Francisco than Orton had in a Denver. It wouldn’t be a stretch.

by Andrew Davidson on Jan 12, 2011 5:04 PM PST up reply actions

1) You do realize the reason why QB rating is massively overrated is due to how it weights TD/INT, way more so then YPA and comp. pct, right?

2)I believe I said Orton>Smith, but it’s not overwhelming. Playing in McDaniels system helped him immensely.

by BustaTheRippa on Jan 12, 2011 5:07 PM PST up reply actions

ummm

QB 1: 15 of 20 passes, 300 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT = 130.555…

QB 2: 15 of 20 passes, 300 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT = 130.555

I mean, let’s face it, QB rating is a meaningless stat either way, but I’d say it doesn’t favour either stat more so than the other. If a QB has a high YPA and completion pct, he’ll have a high QB rating just as easily as he will with a high TD/INT ratio.

by Andrew Davidson on Jan 12, 2011 5:16 PM PST up reply actions

Yeah, QB rating is silly. And single-game QB rating is simply meaningless.

It looks like dancing frog in the sky because it's green.

by howtheyscored on Jan 12, 2011 5:20 PM PST up reply actions

I never understood how or why QB ratings are accumulated for individual games. It makes more sense to wait for a full season. I mean, seriously, if a guy throws for 300 yards (on 15 of 20 passing) for 2 TDs and 0 INTs, but his team loses, how was that QB perfect? What if he lost 7 fumbles?

by Andrew Davidson on Jan 12, 2011 5:25 PM PST up reply actions

The worst thing about QB rating is that over the course of a full season it does a halfway decent job of ranking quarterback performances. It’s terrible that the stat’s abject silliness has been able to hide for so many years behind the curtain of being “kind of okay over a really long period of time.”

It looks like dancing frog in the sky because it's green.

by howtheyscored on Jan 12, 2011 5:36 PM PST up reply actions

I actually really dislike TD/INT ratio, because it tells me that a guy who throws 10 TDs and 5 INTs in a 16-game season is exactly as valuable as a guy who throws 20 TDs and 10 INTs.

It also implies that TDs and INTs have an exactly inverse value. They don’t. TDs are much more valuable than INTs are harmful.

The key isn’t in the ratio of touchdowns to interceptions. It’s in the rate at which both are thrown individually. This used to be a pain in the ass to figure out, which was why TD/INT ratio was useful (for convenience), but pro-football-reference has it all in a very easy to reference format on their website.

It looks like dancing frog in the sky because it's green.

by howtheyscored on Jan 12, 2011 5:18 PM PST up reply actions

funny thing about QB rating regarding your 20/10 and 10/5 ratio: difference of about 5 points in a QB rating at season’s end. Assuming both players threw the same amount of yards, completion and attempts.

I think the only thing I want out of a QB is to throw more TDs than INTs, and average one or less INT per game. It definitely needs to be on a grander scale than one versus the other.

by Andrew Davidson on Jan 12, 2011 5:22 PM PST up reply actions

It also implies that TDs and INTs have an exactly inverse value. They don’t. TDs are much more valuable than INTs are harmful.

And I’d like to elaborate on this because it’s been controversial every time I’ve said it. A touchdown pass is worth a minimum of six points every time it happens. Every single time. It’s probably worth about 6.99 points on average in the NFL. An interception will result in anywhere between 0 and 7 points being scored for the other team, so the average negative value of interceptions will always be lower than the average positive value of touchdown passes.

It’s been argued to me that this doesn’t make sense because a team’s turnover ratio has such a strong historical correlation with its ability to win games. This is a salient argument, but assumes that the interceptions a quarterback throws will account for the greater part of their turnover ratio. Generally, it won’t, and I’d be tempted to say that it can’t. Offensive fumbles and defensive turnovers will almost always account for the much greater part of the team’s overall turnover ratio. Furthermore, a quarterback will generally account for the much greater part of the team’s offensive touchdowns. The Ladainian Tomlinson 28 rushing TD seasons are extremely rare.

So, a quarterback’s TD passes will account for a much higher percentage of his team’s scoring than his interceptions will account for his team’s overall turnover ratio. Combined with the face that a passing TD is worth more points on average than an interception is worth opposing points, I think the point is pretty clear: Touchdown passes are much more important than interceptions.

I’d even argue that interceptions are one of the more overrated stats in the NFL today.

It looks like dancing frog in the sky because it's green.

by howtheyscored on Jan 12, 2011 5:34 PM PST up reply actions

Actually INT hurt more than just 0-7 points.

In fact you can argue that it can cost up to 14 points. You lose 7 points since you failed to score a TD and they are able to score a TD.

Kellen Moore is awesome
Katie Mcgrath is our savior
My dream draft
1. Jake Locker QB UW 2. Jimmy Smith CB Colorado 3. Casey Mathews OLB Oregon. 4a. Owen Marecic FB/LB/ST Stanford 4b. Sione Fua NT Stanford 5. Titus Young WR Boise State 6a.Clay Nurse DE/OLB Illinois (depending on combine/proday) 6b. Chase Beeler C Stanford 7a. BPA 7b. BPA

by manraj7 on Jan 12, 2011 6:08 PM PST up reply actions

I’ve thought of that argument, and it certainly makes a difference, but I don’t really think it’s that big of a difference. An interception is the same as a defensive stop, except you tend to do much better on field position. In a lot of ways, it’s no different than going three and out and giving up a big punt return.

It would be interesting to get some real math on TD value vs. INT value, though.

For what it’s worth, I started thinking about this theory based on something Florida Danny said a year-ish ago. He looked at playoff quarterbacks for the year and noticed that many of them had interception rates that were kind of middle of the pack, but that almost none of them had touchdown rates that weren’t elite (LOLMarkSanchezOutlier).

It looks like dancing frog in the sky because it's green.

by howtheyscored on Jan 12, 2011 8:04 PM PST up reply actions

Pass TD value vs. INT value, now that’s something that would be interesting. Obviously not all INTs are worth the same, but most Pass TDs are.

Obviously a case to study would be the difference in value of a garbage time TD vs. clutch/important TD. A garbage time TD is worth 0, where as a super bowl winning TD is worth an infinite amount. Ditto for garbage time INTs and super bowl losing INTs.

This study would be a great one to read about, and possibly participate in. Loads and loads of data to go through, but why not come up with your own metric for putting value to Pass TDs vs. INTs?

by Andrew Davidson on Jan 12, 2011 8:47 PM PST up reply actions

I heard about this genius on NN

He works magic with numbers.

by manraj7 on Jan 12, 2011 10:05 PM PST up reply actions

I might have been able to put an interesting metric together 5 or 6 years ago, but all my math is gone now. The latent skills are still there, but the knowledge base that would let me use them has faded away.

It would be interesting to know the approximate values, though, and it would make a big difference in interpreting TD and INT numbers.

It looks like dancing frog in the sky because it's green.

by howtheyscored on Jan 13, 2011 9:52 AM PST up reply actions

O " boy " ... i guess you forgot whom was coaching Alex ...

… and forgot about the scheme that was run as well , a competent running back has little to do with the complete failure of the Offensive philosophy that we fan’s had to endear , three name’s for you Sing , Jimmy and Mj that group would make Brady struggle …!!

I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ...Jimmy Raye your no daisy ...!!

by Edggy on Jan 13, 2011 6:04 AM PST up reply actions

What the hell are you smoking? I don't see how you can possibly say that Orton is "much better" than Alex Smith.

The stats just don’t support your case.

by 49erFanSince1950 on Jan 12, 2011 6:48 PM PST up reply actions

But he barely beat Smith’s numbers with a McDaniels run offense, yo! CLEARLY not a system QB!

by BustaTheRippa on Jan 12, 2011 6:56 PM PST up reply actions

I don’t know what stats you’re looking at, because they absolutely do.

All stats will be listed Smith/Orton.

Last season: completion : 59.6/58.8, YPA: 6.9/7.3, Adjusted YPA (for defense): 6.4/7.3, TD: 4.1/4.0, INT%: 2.9/1.8, DYAR: 133/838, DYAR Rank: 32/12, DVOA: -5.4%/13.4%, DVOA Rank: 33/18.

What that basically tells you is that Orton threw better against better defenses, and was significantly more successful situationally. The adjusted YPA numbers, the huge INT rate difference, and the massive differences in the FO stats tell a very specific story: Orton is much better than Alex Smith.

It looks like dancing frog in the sky because it's green.

by howtheyscored on Jan 12, 2011 8:12 PM PST up reply actions

Still arguing over Smith

It’s going to be like 5 years before we can get past him.

Let’s hope we get our legit franchise QB this year so we can focus on someone else. Then again, we will probably just compare him to Smith anyways.

I’m with you though howie, I think Orton is much better than Smith. I think it comes down to the eye test, who would you rather have?

by hudd07 on Jan 12, 2011 9:24 PM PST up reply actions

dude

on this list, no QB in the top 14 is going to be available like Orton will be. Maybe, and it’s a huge maybe, Vick will but I doubt it. McNabb is another guy you mentioned that might be available, and if it means no pick given up versus pick given up, I agree, I’d take McNabb.

by Andrew Davidson on Jan 12, 2011 5:07 PM PST up reply actions

I don’t want McNabb, actually. I wouldn’t mind Orton, but as I said further down the thread no more than a 4th, and only as a stop gap solution. Giving up a 2nd rounder or even 3rd rounder would be a huge mistake, especially when it’s quite possible the best QB in this underwhelming draft might be found in those rounds.

by BustaTheRippa on Jan 12, 2011 5:10 PM PST up reply actions

I get what your putting down.

by Andrew Davidson on Jan 12, 2011 5:19 PM PST up reply actions

I can’t seem to grasp the correct use of your versus you’re today. brain farting.

by Andrew Davidson on Jan 12, 2011 5:27 PM PST up reply actions

I never said great. I said very, very good. And I don’t really see anything in the last three years of his career that say differently. 60% completion over that time. 10,427 yards. 59 TDs. 32 INTs. 6.9 YPA.

And most of those numbers have been improving each year over that period, and he’s smack in the middle of what should be the prime of his career. This last season, his TD%, INT%, YPA, and YPG were all very, very good. If a slightly below average completion percentage is really the only knock against him, I’ll take that. I’ll take that every day of the week.

It looks like dancing frog in the sky because it's green.

by howtheyscored on Jan 12, 2011 4:22 PM PST up reply actions

Take into account that Orton was throwing a ton and had no running game...

yet he actually ran play-action REALLY well this past year. And he didn’t have what anybody would call a “name” receiver coming into the season. I’m not sure that Orton would be the guy I want under center long term, but he could be good as a transitional guy.

Props to York/Baalke for reeling in Harbaugh. Now everybody get back to work!
twitter me @grantmp1

by grantmp on Jan 12, 2011 4:24 PM PST up reply actions

“name receiver”? Who cares about a name? It’s clear that Brandon Lloyd finally realized his potential this year and broke out. He’s average in the league at best. Niner fans deserve better after all these years of sucky QB play, whoch is why I took exception to the “we’d be lucky to have him” comment.

by BustaTheRippa on Jan 12, 2011 4:27 PM PST up reply actions

And didn't Orton have a ton to do with Lloyd's success?

You could argue that Orton should deserve more props for getting Lloyd to realize his talent rather than ducking passes (as we witnessed first hand when he was a younger Niner). I’m not saying that we’d be as lucky to have him as we would be to have basically any of the guys you mention, but I am saying that Orton would be a massive improvement over the Smith-Smith-Carr pu-pu platter we’ve had at quarterback. Seriously, 3600+ yards, and a better than 2-1 TD/INT ratio, 6 300+ yards game in this past season—in only 14 games.

Props to York/Baalke for reeling in Harbaugh. Now everybody get back to work!
twitter me @grantmp1

by grantmp on Jan 12, 2011 4:37 PM PST up reply actions

Funny how ex-niner's around the league , seem to fair better ...

… once the go elsewhere , this isn’t about the player’s , it’s about the scheme and coach’s , Orton would have struggled in this system as well …!!

I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ...Jimmy Raye your no daisy ...!!

by Edggy on Jan 13, 2011 6:19 AM PST up reply actions

I agree with grant.

Lloyd definitely broke out this year, no doubt about that, but his only successful year was with Orton at the helm. You gotta credit to Orton for his success too

by LiteUpThatHalo on Jan 12, 2011 4:59 PM PST up reply actions

No

Jim Harbaugh is our future!
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS: WORLD CHAMPIONS!
Touchdown Forty Niners!
Giants Baseball: Torture. It hurts so good.

by Effage on Jan 12, 2011 2:45 PM PST reply actions 1 recs

LOL

Jim Harbaugh, new Head Coach of the San Francisco 49ers. Now what?

by drummer on Jan 12, 2011 2:55 PM PST up reply actions

Concise yet poignant

"The principle is competing against yourself. It's about self improvement, about being better than you were the day before." ~Steve Young #8

by Young_To_Rice on Jan 12, 2011 5:07 PM PST up reply actions

…!!

by brundylop on Jan 13, 2011 7:22 AM PST up reply actions

I want to disagree...

but I’m not sure I can.

I like what Orton is doing but his career in Chicago (as well as Denver) gives me the impression of a guy who can’t make the big play when necessary. He can make throws but isn’t a “winner.” That’s hardly an amorphous concept at best but I just don’t see it in him.

My problem with him as a stop-gap is that he can’t show and teach greatness, even if he can help us win a few games. I’d rather have an older QB who might not perform as well every day as Orton can but who might be able to show flashes of what it takes to be a great QB.

McNabb may be that guy… but who knows? I think it might depend on who we draft. We might draft someone who needs a guy like Orton to coach him.

I normally have a strong opinion but I just can’t get my head around what needs to be done about our QB situation.

by Delmuir on Jan 19, 2011 5:58 PM PST up reply actions

Do you see a better option in free agency? I’d rather have Orton over McNabb. McNabb showed his difficulty in adjusting to a new system and team this year. I think he woudl do better with the 49ers and Harbaugh but he’s getting old. Orton can only benefit with this team and he’s younger, and cheaper, that McNabb.

Proud supporter for Kyle Orton as a 49er for 2011

by Haggardninja on Jan 20, 2011 11:29 AM PST up reply actions

See my signature

I would be happy with Orton, just not at the price of a 2nd rounder. A third or anything below that would be great.

Proud supporter for Kyle Orton as a 49er for 2011

by Haggardninja on Jan 12, 2011 2:49 PM PST reply actions

Forgot to mention that amazing neck beard. You could put a picture of that next to Joe Montana’s fu manchu.

Proud supporter for Kyle Orton as a 49er for 2011

by Haggardninja on Jan 12, 2011 2:51 PM PST up reply actions

Especially the 2nd rounder for this draft which will be 40

That’s way to high.

Don't trust this guy. He lies.

by urnext on Jan 13, 2011 3:20 PM PST up reply actions

I wouldn't be upset

if Orton were obtained, but I would hope it would cost less than a second rounder. There are some “interesting” options for the 49ers at QB in 2011, and I think Orton is one of the top options.

by Andrew Davidson on Jan 12, 2011 3:02 PM PST reply actions

I think a 2nd-rounder would be steep for me.

That’s Matt Cassell compensation, and I’m not sure that he should command that.

Props to York/Baalke for reeling in Harbaugh. Now everybody get back to work!
twitter me @grantmp1

by grantmp on Jan 12, 2011 4:25 PM PST up reply actions

Right on the money! Would I like to obtain him? Absolutely. For a second round pick? Absolutely not.

I would be will to give a fourth, fifth and sixth. But a second? He’s not worth that much. Too many other cheaper options that could do the job.

by 49erFanSince1950 on Jan 12, 2011 6:53 PM PST up reply actions

A 4th, 5th and 6th

like packaged altogether? All three picks?

I think I’d rather give up just one third rounder instead. I’m in agreement that a second rounder is too steep.

by Andrew Davidson on Jan 12, 2011 8:48 PM PST up reply actions

For a 2nd round pick?

Absolutely not. I’d be shocked if anyone gives that much for Orton. I’m uncomfortable giving up a third round round pick for him, but I can at least see some argument for that.

Thing A

"Correlation between inability to use the reply button and general crappiness of analysis: pretty high." -Sleepy Freud

by sam23 on Jan 12, 2011 3:13 PM PST reply actions 1 recs

I wouldn’t give up anything more than a 4th for him. 2nd round and 3rd round picks are extremely valuable. Orton has reached his ceiling and it is that of a QB in the 15-20 range in the league. He’s a stop gap solution, nothing more.

by BustaTheRippa on Jan 12, 2011 3:46 PM PST reply actions

3rd or no deal

by Since79 on Jan 12, 2011 4:02 PM PST reply actions

no

by whanson on Jan 12, 2011 4:09 PM PST reply actions

no f'n way a 2nd pick

That would be the 39th pick! No way. I would rather get a draft pick, groom them under Carr and Harbaugh’s tutelage and see how 2012 fairs. Maybe swap picks? Say give up the 3rd, get a 5th and Orton? But no way a 2nd pick from 49ers. Orton is better than Carr, but not that much.

So quick comparison of Orton v Carr: Carr is 3 yrs older and has 30 more games of experience (4 extra seasons). They both have about 1 turnover per game (int+fumbles lost – Orton 1.032 per game, Carr 1.000 per game). Completion % is comparable (58.1 v 59.7), yds per att are comparbale (6.5 v 6.4). Carr gets an avg of 10 yds more rushing per game (4.2 v 14.5) but a fair amount of passing yds less per game (206 v 156.9 – though a lot of the increase for Orton is due to Denver the last 2 yrs). Houston’s line was never that great, though Chicago had a decent line until about 2 years ago, so Orton did not get sacked as often. Carr made time with his legs. Orton has thrown for significant more TDs than Carr, but other than that, these two are fairly comparable. So why “waste” a 2nd or 3rd round pick for something we have already?

Carr has not started more than 6 games the last 4 years (so he should have a little more “life” in his body). He was used very little at NYG since they had Eli “I lock on visually to my target” Manning. His yds/game were pretty good at Houston. So I just do not see much reason to pay a valuable 1st or 2nd day pick for Orton. I would rather get Kolb, maybe Josh Johnson (tampa’s backup, but give low draft comp for him since he is unproven and young) – Josh Feeman probably makes Johnson somehwat expendable. Maybe McNabb to train a rookie?

Just my thoughts anyway…

by D.P on Jan 12, 2011 4:52 PM PST reply actions

Orton is so much better than Carr it's not even debateable!

Carr is dead weight on the roster as a QB, as a mentor he has some value for a young QB.

by mensa on Jan 12, 2011 8:24 PM PST up reply actions

I wouldn’t let Carr groom my dog.

by blako on Jan 12, 2011 9:33 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs

rec'd

I wouldn’t let my dog groom Carr coincidentally.

by Andrew Davidson on Jan 13, 2011 1:27 PM PST up reply actions

I'd like a dog grooming car

Thing A

"Correlation between inability to use the reply button and general crappiness of analysis: pretty high." -Sleepy Freud

by sam23 on Jan 14, 2011 5:42 AM PST up reply actions

The only thing I want the Niners to do with Carr is...

release him.

by NinerFanDan on Jan 13, 2011 12:08 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs

There's no way I'm watching the Niners in 2011

if Carr is the starting QB.

by brianmc27 on Jan 13, 2011 12:37 PM PST up reply actions

Carr is broken-down and leaking oil

we were sold a lemon.

by suffrin9erfan on Jan 13, 2011 10:22 PM PST up reply actions

+1

No way a 2nd or 3rd.

by Willy G on Jan 12, 2011 7:13 PM PST reply actions

For a 2nd: No

For a 3rd: Absolutely.

Is it draft day yet?

by See Jay on Jan 12, 2011 7:23 PM PST reply actions

Orton

Orton is no better than Alex smith. Mcdaniels ability as the offensive mind in Denver inflated ortons stats a bit. I would rather have kolb or mcnabb as a free agent qb

by zmoney on Jan 12, 2011 9:48 PM PST reply actions

If you look up at this thread...

You will see a conversation on your very point.

Jim Harbaugh, new Head Coach of the San Francisco 49ers. Now what?

by drummer on Jan 12, 2011 11:10 PM PST up reply actions

If you can get McNabb for free (no draft pick compensation)

and it is being assumed that Orton would just be a stopgap, then it makes no sense to go after Orton. One’ could argue that McNabb is a better QB. People make a lot out of his 2010 season with Washington, but he had no supporting cast in Washington. 30th in the NFL in rushing. If you give him Frank Gore, Anthony Dixon and Brian Westbrook (maybe), a long with Davis and Walker at TE, and you have a nice supporting cast that McNabb utilized a like in Phllly

Mock draft 2.0: 1) CB- Prince Amukamara, Nebraska 2) DE- Cameron Jordan, California 3) LB- Bruce Carter, North Carolina 4) WR- Austin Pettis, Boise State 4) QB- Pat Devlin, Deleware 5) RB- Darren Evans, Virginia Tech 6) S- Tejay Johnson, Texas Christian 6) FB- Owen Merecic, Stanford 7) OL- Danny Watkins, Baylor 7) LB- Wayne Daniels, Texas Christian

by nocal81(Vincent) on Jan 12, 2011 11:18 PM PST reply actions

Nope ...!!

I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ...Jimmy Raye your no daisy ...!!

by Edggy on Jan 13, 2011 6:21 AM PST up reply actions

Not our first choice, more of a "we'd settle for him if our preferred choices fell through"

Here’s a recent poll.

http://www.ninersnation.com/2011/1/12/1930158/49ers-2011-qb-situation-all-the-odds-with-an-eaaaaaaarly-look-forward

by DeathValleyCarl on Jan 13, 2011 11:43 AM PST reply actions

Considering what is out there...

I’m marginally okay with a 3rd round pick for Orton. Alternatively, I’d suggest a 4th in the ‘11 draft plus a 6th in the ’12 draft, depending on what we have already given up / acquired in those drafts. I just don’t know if Orton is a long-term answer though, and would rather see Vince Young, who is high-risk high-reward with franchise potential, while selecting a QB in the draft in case VY doesn’t work out.

In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.

by skyywise on Jan 13, 2011 1:51 PM PST reply actions

It doesn't matter

There won’t be a new CBA until after the draft so we can’t draft picks for players

by 3eyes on Jan 13, 2011 2:25 PM PST reply actions

trade draft picks

by 3eyes on Jan 13, 2011 2:25 PM PST up reply actions

would rather have the 2nd round pick

I like Kyle Orton, but I would rather have a 2nd round pick and draft someone there

by flyincow555 on Jan 13, 2011 2:30 PM PST reply actions

2nd rounder would be worth an established veteran QB.

Orton may not be the QBOTF but he is more than a solid stop-gap.

Some of us will do our jobs well and some will not, but we will be judged by only one thing -- the result. -Lombardi

by Drew Kerr on Jan 13, 2011 8:05 PM PST reply actions

With Gore and an improving O-line, I say get Orton for now

He could be good (not great) with us. Maybe a third-rounder for him, then maybe package picks to get Luck next year.

Draft Nick Fairley

by REDANDGOLD8 on Jan 13, 2011 10:05 PM PST reply actions

Twice as many TDs as INTs? I'll take that.

His completion % would have to go up if he were to come here as we have more than one player who can actually catch the ball. I can’t see him as any more than a stopgap who gives us a real chance of making the playoffs, so no way he is worth a 2nd round pick, but I strongly suspect Denver will let him go for less than that.

by suffrin9erfan on Jan 13, 2011 10:19 PM PST reply actions

Not at any price the Broncos would accept.

I’d offer a 4th for him. No higher.

by Ougadas on Jan 14, 2011 7:42 AM PST reply actions

When I think of Kyle Orton a few things come to mind

Michael Bolton from Office Space (except not as gangster)

That he lost to the 49ers this year.

The roughing the passer penalty he received when playing the 49ers, and his whining for the call (right away).

The Broncos W-L record in his 13 games this season (3-10).

That his passing numbers are inflated because Denver was usually behind and had to pass the ball.

The fact that he was placed behind Rex Grossman in Chicago (whether it was a good idea).

So your inquiry:

Do you want the 49ers to trade a 2nd round pick for Kyle Orton?

Answer: Absolutely Not.

We’re the 49ers! It may not seem so recently, but we demand greatness of our QBs. In fact, I think I may change my signature to ‘55-10’

[site decorum]

by bonbrillio on Jan 14, 2011 8:26 AM PST reply actions

That he lost to the 49ers this year.

Because the Broncos are a terrible team

The roughing the passer penalty he received when playing the 49ers, and his whining for the call (right away).

The way the NFL works right now, it’s to the team’s advantage for a quarterback to do this. It looks stupid, but it’s good strategy. If only Alex had whined to the officials more often.

The Broncos W-L record in his 13 games this season (3-10).

Because the Broncos are a terrible team

That his passing numbers are inflated because Denver was usually behind and had to pass the ball.

Which doesn’t change the fact that his passing numbers were good. A bad quarterback may have inflated stats from overuse, but those stats will still be bad.

The fact that he was placed behind Rex Grossman in Chicago (whether it was a good idea).

Rex Grossman was a first round pick with great arm and high expectations. Kyle Orton was a fourth round pick with no expectations who eventually wrestled the job away first by winning games and then by actually developing into a nice little passer.

I don’t really see how any of those things you say are knocks against him.

It looks like dancing frog in the sky because it's green.

by howtheyscored on Jan 14, 2011 10:42 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs

Thanks for posting those points so I didn’t have to.

Proud supporter for Kyle Orton as a 49er for 2011

by Haggardninja on Jan 14, 2011 12:00 PM PST up reply actions

I Like orton

I think he has a lot of good qualities, and the number one for the niners is experience. He has been around now, and has performed well when healthy. That’s a kicker, he does seem injury prone. A number 2? I don’t know, i’d say 3 for sure, and here is a guy that will play well here until Harbaugh develops the QB of the future.

by furiousd on Jan 14, 2011 9:57 PM PST reply actions

Orton is not injury prone . . .

He just played with a bunch of matadores for O-lines in both Chicago and Denver, respectively. He took a terrific beating especially this last season, and I was amazed he wasn’t injured before he was.

One thing, if you are not intimately (as in a Denver fan, which I have been) knowledgeable of Orton (as in open-minded), is that his final stats for the 2010 season are seriously misleading because of his last two games. Up until then, his QBR was 96.0, his completion percentage 63%, and he was ranked #2 in the league, according to DVOA and #6, according to DYAR. And here’s the kicker: All that time, the Broncos were at the bottom of the league in offensive rushing (1.7 YPA) and defense (ranked #32).

This tells me that, given at least a decent running game and defense, Orton will take a team deep into the playoffs and represent it in the Pro Bowl. I’m not kidding: I really believe he is that good.

If you give up a 2nd for him, you will have stolen him. A playoff QB is worth a 1st any day. He won’t draw that, I’m sure, but that is his intrinsic value, IMO. I’ll put it bluntly: Get Orton, and you will win the Division. And I’ll root for you . . .

BILLY THOMPSON GOT SHAFTED!!

by AZDynamics on Jan 16, 2011 11:49 PM PST up reply actions

I forgot to mention

that the reason for his demise in his last two games is because he was playing with rib injuries to both sides of his ribs. He should not have played those games, but sometimes he’s too tough for his own good, I guess . . .

BILLY THOMPSON GOT SHAFTED!!

by AZDynamics on Jan 16, 2011 11:52 PM PST up reply actions