The NFL Labor Issue, and its Possible Impact on Free Agency
Fooch's Note: Thanks to nocal81 for putting this together. We'll have more on the Florio post tomorrow.
Much has been written about and talked about on Niners Nation in regards to moving forwards as a fan base and as a franchise. It looks like a new era of San Francisco 49ers football has begun. A new Head Coach and a new General Manager, but even more than that, a new sense of purpose and confidence within the organization and the fan base. However, this may come tumbling down as quick as it was built because of the real possibility of a lockout and work stoppage.
Mike Florio, at Pro Football Talk, had a good write up about the ten things to know about the NFL labor situation. In his article, Florio addressed exactly how free agency would be impacted by a work stoppage. Florio rightly suggests that free agency would not start until a new CBA is reached, and that could actually be months from now. The 49ers are one of the teams most looking forward to the "real off-season", when free agents are able to negotiate with teams, trades can be made, extensions signed, and draft conversations heat up. As you all know, our team is in a transitional stage, and the postponing or possible cancellation of the free agent period really could slow this transitional process. Mike Florio also linked a MMQB article by Peter King that suggested a lengthy lockout could possibly "freeze all potential free agents in place for the 2011 season" Peter King did state that he doubts that this will take place, but there does remain a chance it will. Here is the link to the Peter King article.
After the jump I will address exactly how this possibility could affect the 49ers moving forward.
Imagine if you will, Alex Smith wearing his now infamous #11 San Francisco 49ers jersey opening day of the 2011 season. This, after it appeared that Smith would have left the 49ers via free agency, pretty much with the blessing of the entire organization, and the fan base as well. This still remains a viable option as I am typing right now. This is also the same case with all the other 49er free agents. I cannot imagine what Candlestick Park would look like on opening day 2011, if Alex Smith is the starting QB for this team.
Additionally, it must be noted that our entire off-season philosophy will come to a halt as well. As you well know the 49ers are in the market for a new starting QB, and the ongoing labor issue could have a major impact on that. If the lockout were to last into the late summer months, the 49ers would be between a rock and a hard place. Normally top tier free agents are signed and impact trades are made prior to the April draft. In a perfect world the 49ers would acquire a veteran QB in March and go after their QB of the future in the draft, but this may not be a possibility this off-season. So where would they be left? Reaching for an unproven and unpolished rookie QB in the draft? Or going with one of the three players that would remain under contract (Alex Smith, Troy Smith and David Carr)? I cannot imagine that this is a scenario that the 49er brain trust is looking forward to. Not to mention the fact that the 49ers would probably be big players in the 2011 free agent market, as they are looking for upgrades at QB, in the secondary, at linebacker, the defensive line and the offense line. This promised to be an outstanding free agent class with the likes of Nnamdi Asamugha, Eric Wright, Carlos Rogers, LaMarr Woodley, and Tamba Hali all being available on the market. If the 49ers had to rely soley on the draft, they would work with it. But, we would not get the upgrades necessary to take the next step.
Another situation that would arise from an extended lockout would be the fluid transition from work stoppage, to the start of the new season. The NFL would have to rush to get the season started, and with that come so many possibly headaches. What to do about the salary cap? What about the players that are now under contract in 2011? How would you work out their 2011 salary? Would there be an arbitration type set in place, like what we see in MLB? How many pre-season games would be played, if any? How long would the season be? If free agency isn't tabled, what parameters would be put into place regarding it? What restrictions would be placed on players being traded or released (Alex Smith)? And, would the rookie wage scale take place immediately?
As a life long 49ers fan, one that has been through the ups and downs, I am excited about what this franchise is doing. I am excited about the direction it is taking, and most of all I am excited about what this off-season will bring. Eight years of suffering, and we may have to wait months before finding out who our starting QB will be, what shape our roster will be in, and if we will contend in 2011. If the football gods are our friends, a new CBA is reached before March. Otherwise, what started as an amazing off-season, could end up ruining our transition from a 6-10 team, to a division winner; well at least for another season.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.
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The "first" posts should be met with much derision for this point forward.
Jim Harbaugh, new Head Coach of the San Francisco 49ers. Now what?
I know...
I actually died a little inside as I hit the post button
by Sigelvictory on Jan 13, 2011 6:36 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah “first” seems to be disrespectful to the writer
by ninersince94 on Jan 13, 2011 6:37 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
hence the apology...
trying to follow up with some insightful commentary
by Sigelvictory on Jan 13, 2011 6:40 PM PST up reply actions
Didnt take it as direspectful
just a bit overplayed at this point.
Mock draft 2.0: 1) CB- Prince Amukamara, Nebraska 2) DE- Cameron Jordan, California 3) LB- Bruce Carter, North Carolina 4) WR- Austin Pettis, Boise State 4) QB- Pat Devlin, Deleware 5) RB- Darren Evans, Virginia Tech 6) S- Tejay Johnson, Texas Christian 6) FB- Owen Merecic, Stanford 7) OL- Danny Watkins, Baylor 7) LB- Wayne Daniels, Texas Christian
by nocal81(Vincent) on Jan 13, 2011 6:42 PM PST up reply actions
forty eight lol
"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin
by HUNGRY HUNTER on Jan 14, 2011 11:27 PM PST up reply actions
It will be a mess
with a new staff not having access to the players. If the work lockout drags into the preseason, how are we going to install a new offense… If they don’t get this worked out it is gonna be lame. It will put a serious damper on what should be an awesome offseason.
Nice post, I must admit the CBA situation has me worried not only as a niner fan but as a football fan. I really hope the players can come to term with the owners but at this point the owners are coming out as greedy. 18games is too much for NFL players to do, while I admit it would be fun to watch 18 games I wouldn’t want to see my favorite players go down on the 18th week right before the playoffs
by ninersince94 on Jan 13, 2011 6:35 PM PST via mobile reply actions
The nfl is playing with fire
It is essentially inevitable that someone will get hurt from a playoff team in the final extra two weeks… and then all the “I told you so” comments will flood in. PR wise it is just a nightmare that is bound to come to fruition…
by Sigelvictory on Jan 13, 2011 6:39 PM PST up reply actions
From what I saw on tv yesterday both player reps went on the IR this season so an 18game season will be a tough sell for the owners
by ninersince94 on Jan 13, 2011 6:41 PM PST up reply actions
plus those players
will no longer have access to team facilities to continue their rehab work when the CBA expires…
by Sigelvictory on Jan 13, 2011 6:46 PM PST up reply actions
I am too worried about it as a football fan
however, the primary reason football is my favorite sport is because i am a 49ers fan. So, i will continue to look at it through that lens; as i am sure you will to some extent
Mock draft 2.0: 1) CB- Prince Amukamara, Nebraska 2) DE- Cameron Jordan, California 3) LB- Bruce Carter, North Carolina 4) WR- Austin Pettis, Boise State 4) QB- Pat Devlin, Deleware 5) RB- Darren Evans, Virginia Tech 6) S- Tejay Johnson, Texas Christian 6) FB- Owen Merecic, Stanford 7) OL- Danny Watkins, Baylor 7) LB- Wayne Daniels, Texas Christian
by nocal81(Vincent) on Jan 13, 2011 6:42 PM PST up reply actions
Believe me bro i would hate not to see ny niners play this season.
by ninersince94 on Jan 13, 2011 7:00 PM PST up reply actions
part of it is the owners coming to terms with the other owners
i.e. profit sharing
"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin
by HUNGRY HUNTER on Jan 14, 2011 11:30 PM PST up reply actions
I hope they figure this out once and for all!
There is too much money on the table and plenty to go around for all parties involved. This is big business and we are the customers! We want to watch the NFL without this type of drama. Make it happen Goddell, Owners and Players Reps, we are counting on you.
Jay Cruise
Ab Workouts Mind Body Spirit Arthritis Treatment
Forbes article on the NFL...
Do the players have any weapons to try and fight back?
They do, but it’s certainly not full-proof, and fraught with risk. The NFLPA has said that they are considering decertification. That would mean the union for the players would dissolve becoming, ostensibly, a trade organization. Based upon anti-trust law if the NFL clubs, acting as 32 individual businesses, were to attempt to do so, it would be a group boycott of the workers which is illegal.
The NFLPA did this 1989 only to reform as a union in 1993. The NFL would claim through the courts that the new move to decertify is a sham based upon the actions that the NFLPA did prior. It also could mean that a new union could be formed while the current one is dissolved setting up a possible power struggle with the players.
Most of this looks like it shows the NFL doing better, rather than worse, why are the owners looking to a possible lockout?
The NFL could make a compelling case that they are in need of cutting salaries for the players, but as mentioned, they are not releasing financial information, so what is provided paints the picture. If the picture is indeed correct (and unless the NFL is willing to show otherwise, it is as it is), then one could suggest that opportunity is at the center of it. With the television money being so lucrative, the fact that they get paid those rights fees, even if games aren’t played, on top of keeping approx. $1 billion in DirecTV money, then clawing back to where the owners were before the 2006 agreement was reached is a tempting proposition. After all, with the economy just now starting to thaw, it’s easy to say that the NFL is hurting like everyone else, even if they league isn’t presenting compelling figures.
And while the NFL will say that they have to pay the television money back, in the battle of attrition, the owners can clearly outlast the players. If so, the owners will make back part of what they have to pay back through savings on player payroll.
And all of this doesn’t account for other issues the owners are asking for including an 18 game schedule, and possible hGH testing as part of the drug policy. On the 18 game schedule, the players would incur more injuries, which, unless the league is willing to add more money in the way of benefits, is a key concern for the players.
Lot’s more in the article. As far as FA, I would think the players and Agents have their contingency plan, and even though moves can’t be made until the CBA, it won’t prohibit the machinations of setting a player’s value.
Jim Harbaugh, new Head Coach of the San Francisco 49ers. Now what?
It's still 7 or 8 powerful owners vs the owners
not the owners vs the players.
by whistlingmountain on Jan 13, 2011 6:51 PM PST reply actions
Two steps forward, three backwards it could be
As much as this organization seems to be turning a new leaf and headed in the right direction this whole CBA thing could really hurt our team and Harbaughs first year as coach.
No FA, player trades, practices, OTA’s etc. etc. could really set us back a season.
I hope they get this worked out soon. I want Harbaugh to have every chance and possible way to suceed at his disposal, but this whole thing could really have his hands tied in many areas.
2011 season can't come quick enough..
It's not just SF..
There are a lot of teams in transition. I think the NFL and the NFLPA will have this worked out before the draft. If they don’t, one truncated season isn’t going to kill the Franchise.
Here is a nice primer from a link off of the Forbes article:
http://www.redskins.com/gen/articles/NFL_Primer_On_CBA__Potential_of_Uncapped_Year_101621.jsp
Jim Harbaugh, new Head Coach of the San Francisco 49ers. Now what?
Agreed
A whole host of teams will effected big time by a longstanding work stoppage. Teams like Indianapolis, New England, New Orleans etc… will not be as effected. But, i guess that goes without saying. Teams that performed well may not have a lot of turnover, and teams that went 6-10 will have more turnover.
Mock draft 2.0: 1) CB- Prince Amukamara, Nebraska 2) DE- Cameron Jordan, California 3) LB- Bruce Carter, North Carolina 4) WR- Austin Pettis, Boise State 4) QB- Pat Devlin, Deleware 5) RB- Darren Evans, Virginia Tech 6) S- Tejay Johnson, Texas Christian 6) FB- Owen Merecic, Stanford 7) OL- Danny Watkins, Baylor 7) LB- Wayne Daniels, Texas Christian
by nocal81(Vincent) on Jan 13, 2011 7:04 PM PST up reply actions
If there is work stoppage and no 2011 season.....
would Carolina get the number 1 pick 2 years in a row? Just curious…
what happens if
the whole season gets canceled like in the NHL? What would the draft order be for next year?
I did some research, but there really wasn't any informatin on what would happen
However, i did find some options as to what would occur
1) The order would be the same as the 2011 draft
2) A lottery like they do in the NBA. This meaning that of non playoff qualifying teams the Panthers would get the best shot at the #1 pick, and so forth.
3) Reverse order from the previous years draft.
I see a lottery being the best option. However, lets not hope it get to this point
Mock draft 2.0: 1) CB- Prince Amukamara, Nebraska 2) DE- Cameron Jordan, California 3) LB- Bruce Carter, North Carolina 4) WR- Austin Pettis, Boise State 4) QB- Pat Devlin, Deleware 5) RB- Darren Evans, Virginia Tech 6) S- Tejay Johnson, Texas Christian 6) FB- Owen Merecic, Stanford 7) OL- Danny Watkins, Baylor 7) LB- Wayne Daniels, Texas Christian
by nocal81(Vincent) on Jan 13, 2011 7:34 PM PST up reply actions
Reverse order? Damn that would be a terrible idea.
go rowand
by lincypoo i wuv u on Jan 14, 2011 3:21 PM PST up reply actions
Wait...
The draft is going to take place regardless of wether the CBA is done. Teams will have the rights to those players they draft, but will be unable to sign them to a contract til everything is worked out.
I pretty sure that if the entire season is canceled, then the players can reenstate for the draft after some point in early 2012.
I thought so
I now remember in during the NHL lockout that they had a lottery where the worst teams had the best chance to get the top pick and the best teams had a very minimal chacne to get it.
If there is no 2011 season
My idea for the draft order would be the average winning percentage of a teams past 10 seasons, just to make things perhaps a bit more fair, and not financially hinder teams like Carolina who would not have to shell out number one money two years in a row
"God tells me he can get me out of this mess, but he's pretty sure you're fucked."-Braveheart
Love the ending
even though im pumped about the offseason already, this just gets me even more pumped
We’re all going to be watching the UFL next season.
by bmcrae83@yahoo.com on Jan 13, 2011 8:59 PM PST reply actions
I thought I heard
that part of the reason that was created was for the possibility of the CBA not getting worked out. A way for UFL to cash in while NFL is in lockout mode.. Anybody else.. make sence
2011 season can't come quick enough..
eww thats gross..
imagine watching all your fave washed up players like JP Losman, and Jeff garcia and players who were never good enough for the NFL every Sundayy =P
"Winning means being unafraid to lose." – Fran Tarkenton
Almost as bad as 80's porn huh!
I’d bet alot of us would still watch it thou… Oh yeah the football too..
2011 season can't come quick enough..
We'll miss OTA's
But we will have training camp. I suspect after the players get OTAs out of the way and the thought of losing money starts to weigh on their minds they will fold to the mighty arms of the owners. ESPN just agreed to pay 2 BILLION a year for MNF!
If that’s the case they may work out a longer training camp period and forgo the 18 game schedule until 2012. One thing is for sure, if we do miss OTAs we’ll find out just how good of a teacher Harbs is.
Harbaugh will find a QB and he will succeed.
Call me optimist
But, i believe that a new CBA will be worked out by the start of free agency. I really think it has much less to do with the immediate finances, and more to do with the fact that the NFL brand has gotten incredibly big over the last decade or so; and i don’t believe that either side is willing to risk future financial windfalls due to this stalemate. Even a hint of greed from either side in this economic downturn could turn a lot of fans off of the NFL, and towards another sport.
Mock draft 2.0: 1) CB- Prince Amukamara, Nebraska 2) DE- Cameron Jordan, California 3) LB- Bruce Carter, North Carolina 4) WR- Austin Pettis, Boise State 4) QB- Pat Devlin, Deleware 5) RB- Darren Evans, Virginia Tech 6) S- Tejay Johnson, Texas Christian 6) FB- Owen Merecic, Stanford 7) OL- Danny Watkins, Baylor 7) LB- Wayne Daniels, Texas Christian
by nocal81(Vincent) on Jan 13, 2011 10:04 PM PST up reply actions
I'm just worried the owners want too much
Other than that I’m fairly optimistic.
Harbaugh will find a QB and he will succeed.
First thing that comes to mind is of course owners being greedy. Next is I heard the comish say “the fans want it”, I am pretty sure we want a full season more. 3rd what does this do to records and H.O.F. consideration? Its a ll a big joke and everyone knows it. The biggest problem I see is the players holding out (which they should) for months and then finally giving in cause I dont see the owners giving up. If owners arent making enough money maybe they should sell there team to someone that doesnt need to make zillions of more dollars a year.
Regarding records/HOF...this has played out before
When the NFL went from 14 to 16 games in 1978, there was some churn about records being affected…especially when Eric Dickerson passed OJ Simpson’s single-season rushing record, or Dan Marino eclipsed Joe Namath’s passing yardage record.
Incidentally, Herschel Walker holds the pro football record for rushing yards, and he did it in an 18-game season – 2,411 yards in the 1985 USFL campaign. That’ll definitely be something NFL players shoot for in an 18-game schedule.
good post nocal
I enjoyed it. You can put a gold star on your chart from me
by mcwagner on Jan 13, 2011 9:52 PM PST via mobile reply actions
Thanks Mcwagner, I aim to please LOL
Mock draft 2.0: 1) CB- Prince Amukamara, Nebraska 2) DE- Cameron Jordan, California 3) LB- Bruce Carter, North Carolina 4) WR- Austin Pettis, Boise State 4) QB- Pat Devlin, Deleware 5) RB- Darren Evans, Virginia Tech 6) S- Tejay Johnson, Texas Christian 6) FB- Owen Merecic, Stanford 7) OL- Danny Watkins, Baylor 7) LB- Wayne Daniels, Texas Christian
by nocal81(Vincent) on Jan 13, 2011 10:01 PM PST up reply actions
Yup , the sky is falling ...get ready for a lockout , get your puppy's now ...!!
I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ...Jimmy Raye your no daisy ...!!
Luck's decision to stay at Stanford...
…could be a bellweather for how this labor conflict is going to play out. His father Oliver has a lot of connections in the NFL, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he advised Luck to stay based on inside info.
Lol Alex Smith returning would be chaos.
Good post, nocal. I hope this CBA gets done within a couple months so we can really move forward. Otherwise, 49ers football could be severely ugly in 2011 without the proper changes and preparation. But I’m someone that is behind Harbaugh all the way, as I have been pulling for him as SF HC for well over a year, so a year or two of losing would be Ok with me if we’re seeing the signs that will lead to a better future.
But lol @ Alex Smith. I mean, I like the guy and think more highly of him than most 49ers fans, but his return would be really weird. I think both sides need to move on severely. I’d almost rather hope David Carr could play at a mediocre level than see the AS debacle all over again.
Jim Harbaugh is our future!
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS: WORLD CHAMPIONS!
Touchdown Forty Niners!
Giants Baseball: Torture. It hurts so good.
Oh, and rec'd btw
Jim Harbaugh is our future!
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS: WORLD CHAMPIONS!
Touchdown Forty Niners!
Giants Baseball: Torture. It hurts so good.

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