Week 4 NFL Picks: Crashing Down To Earth

by DerekRE_3 on Oct 1, 2011 2:00 PM PDT in National Preview/Review

Not the best performance by me after a bounce-back week two. The Patriots, Eagles and Jets all decided to get upset last weekend. Even still, I kept things above .500 with a 9-7 record. It's a good thing I'm doing NFL picks for a NFC West team page, because that gets you home-field advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

This weekend, we have a couple potentially awesome games to watch. The Lions-Cowboys game should be a great barometer for the Lions, who are looking to go 4-0 to start the season since...since I'm too lazy to check when. What do you guys think are the chances of Ndamukong Suh doing this to Tony Romo's ribs on Sunday?

Besides that game, we have the Jets visiting the Ravens and the Steelers at the Texans. Is ESPN sure it can't flex one of those games to replace the Colts at the Buccaneers on Monday night? I mean, I love Curtis Painter as much as the next guy, but come on.

Record last week: 9-7
Overall record: 31-16

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears

This is actually kind of a tough pick for me. The Bears can't protect Jay Cutler. Jay Cutler can't protect the ball. Cam Newton has been impressive so far this year, but he's still prone to make rookie mistakes. I'm going to take the easy way out and go with the home team.

Winner: Bears

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals

After watching the Cincinatti Bengals offense last weekend, I feel pretty confident in picking the Bills here. Cedric Benson is still available to play because of the appeal of his suspension, but I just don't see the Bengals keeping up with the Bills surprisingly potent offense. Look out, the Bills start off the season 4-0.

Winner: Bills

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns

Neither club is really what you would call an "impressive" 2-1 team. Matt Hasselbeck has been surprisingly (at least to me) effective, but he just lost Kenny Britt for the year, who has been their most explosive player on offense. This should be a close, but ugly game. Since I'm a Colt McCoy fan, I'll take the Browns.

Winner: Browns

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys have barely beaten the Redskins and 49ers the last two weeks. Tony Romo is still banged up; ribs don't heal in a week or two. I think the Lions win this game. Matt Stafford and Megatron have been great, and the Cowboys have a suspect secondary. The key for the Lions is to keep DeMarcus Ware from destroying Matt Stafford's shoulder.

Winner: Lions

Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs

It's time. It's time for the Chiefs to win a game. They are at home, the Vikings aren't great besides Adrian Peterson, and the Chiefs are due. I can feel it.

Winner: Chiefs

Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams

The Rams are pretty bad. Their offense can't move the ball. Their defense can't stop it. Sam Bradford hasn't been dealt the best hand: new system, lockout, tough schedule and no big play-makers at receiver. Shockingly, I think the Rams will start off the season 0-4. In fact, I'd bet they start 0-6.

Winner: Redskins

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles

I wish I could pick the 49ers here. But with the offensive line woes and an Eagles defensive line that can bring pressure, I just can't do it. The Eagles are just too explosive offensively for the 49ers to keep up with, especially with the talent the Eagles have at cornerback. The 49ers are going to need some big plays on defense and special teams to have a chance. Being able to run the ball would help too.

Winner: Eagles

New Orleans Saints at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Saints have an offense. The Jaguars don't, with the exception of 5'6 madman Maurice Jones-Drew. Enough said here, really.

Winner: Saints

Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans

The Texans burned me last week. I thought they would be able to pull off the somewhat upset against the Saints last weekend. It didn't happen. That being said, I'm going to be the that guy who gets back together with his girlfriend that cheated on him and pick the Texans.

Winner: Texans

New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals laid a massive egg against the Seahawks while the Giants were able to knock Michael Vick and the Eagles out. I'm not an Eli Manning believer, but the Cardinals defense is just too awful to not do well against.

Winner: Giants

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks

An NFC West team playing against an out of division opponent? I'll take said out of division opponent please.

Winner: Falcons

Denver Broncos at Green Bay Packers

Nick Collins is out for the year. Ryan Grant isn't going to be able to go. Perfect combination for the upset? Nope. It's Chuck Testa. Ugh...I'm disappointed in myself for doing that.

Winner: Packers

New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders

This could be an entertaining game. The Patriots defense has been awful this year. The same goes for the Raiders defense. Both team have shown they put up points, so this should be a high-scoring game. I'm going to have to go with my guy Tom Brady here, though. I just don't see him letting his team get upset two weeks in a row.

Winner: Patriots

Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers

Tony Sporano may have already lost his team this season, and it looks like he will lose his job as well. The Chargers are the easy pick here.

Winner: Chargers

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens

I can't go against the Harbaugh bloodline. It wouldn't be right. Plus, I'm just not a believer of the Jets offense at this point. I don't see them being able to put many points against the Ravens. Baltimore, on the other hand, has some playmakers on offense. Anquan Boldin, Ray Rice and rookie sensation Torrey Smith give the Ravens big play ability.

Winner: Ravens

Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Curtis Painter is supposed to start. What a terrible Monday night game.

Winner: Buccaneers

Tweet Comment 33 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

I'm not a regular...

…so I know I don’t hold much sway. But does anyone else feel that the front page of Niners Nation is being a bit over saturated these days with posts? I think this is the best Niners site on the net and a huge part of that is that not only are the members here knowledgable but excellent writers. So, I see the benefits of having all these great posts. It’s just that 5+ a day makes it hard to keep track of what’s going on. Or maybe it’s just me.

Also Derek please don’t take this as a direct affront to you, I’m just not sure where else to put this comment.

by InTimmyWeTrust on Oct 1, 2011 2:16 PM PDT reply actions

posts

We do have a lot of posts each day. Anywhere from 7-10 per day depending on the events of a given day. I think there are arguments for more content and arguments for less content. Personally I like being able to provide more to give people a variety of things to discuss in a given day. The upside to having numerous posts every day is that if we post something you have no real interest in reading or discussing, you know something new will come along in a little bit that might be of more interest.

I’m always open to suggestions and comments about the site. Not commenting all the time does not mean you’re not a regular. We have a lot of people who simply prefer to read the content and move on, which is fine. That doesn’t make their opinion any less valuable.

Follow @NinersNation

by David Fucillo on Oct 1, 2011 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

posts

I generally like the commentary posts, picks, and recaps, which have the potential for unique analysis from a 49ers fan perspective. However maybe there’s a second, lower-profile section for “official” team statements – transcripts of interviews with coaches, players, and press releases – that can generally be found through other outlets and to be honest I don’t find terribly insightful anyway…

by dlh on Oct 1, 2011 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions

page layout

The tech folks have begun working on the next layout for SB Nation (SBN 3.0 so to speak) and I’d imagine different structures could work that way, a prominent top section and then other sections for additional content.

In regards to the transcripts and whatnot, those are things that some people like and some people don’t. Early on I would sometimes post the interviews without much else. This year I’ve been trying to add a bit more before the jump pulling out a specific part of the interview to discuss.

People can find a lot of the transcripts and whatnot at other sites, but one reason I include them here is to try and make this a sort of one-stop shop for 49ers content. I know that is not exactly the case since even I link around to Maiocco, Barrows, etc, but for things like that we can make it the number one place for all your content. Of course, it’s also an evolving process.

Follow @NinersNation

by David Fucillo on Oct 1, 2011 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions

also

Just so you don’t think I’m BS’ing you, part of the reason for greater posting volume is that it’s a proven way to grow the site’s community. However, generally I try to avoid posting just for the sake of posting. I want both quantity AND quality. I come up with a daily schedule but generally am able to come up with what seem like solid topics for discussion, or posts that are at least informative.

Now, that hasn’t been true of every single post ever posted here, but I think given the volume of posts we’ve done a pretty good job of putting out mostly quality stuff. This isn’t meant to say you and InTimmyWeTrust are wrong in wanting maybe fewer posts in a day, but it’s more just so you understand where I’m coming from.

Follow @NinersNation

by David Fucillo on Oct 1, 2011 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions

Thanks for the eager replies, David

The “one-stop shop” mentality makes sense to me. I guess I had been used to SB Nation being more based on the opinions of the fans than a straight-up news source (not saying you only do the latter, because you clearly do both). So when I was reading very simple preview/review articles, transcripts, etc., I guess my first reaction was “WTF is this?” Thanks for your explanations.

Niners Nation is truly my one-stop shop. I only use Webzone when I’m looking for streams because they have a devoted thread there.

by InTimmyWeTrust on Oct 2, 2011 12:50 AM PDT up reply actions

devoted thread?

LIke for the games? We have a game thread each week. really we have multiple game threads. The game starts in one and moves along to other threads as one fills up. Have you seen them? If you’re talking about something else entirely, let me know.

Follow @NinersNation

by David Fucillo on Oct 2, 2011 1:06 AM PDT up reply actions

Oh, no. I am well aware of the game threads.

I meant that Webzone has a thread devoted to provide online streams of the game. I live abroad. Which consequently means I can’t really participate in the game threads, because my internet connection gets overwhelmed easily. Sad face.

by InTimmyWeTrust on Oct 2, 2011 1:42 AM PDT up reply actions

internet streams

Ahhh gotcha. Have you checked out NFL Game Pass (gamepass.nfl.com)? It’s an option for overseas people not available to US fans and it’s actually legal. We don’t have dedicated threads for online streams because technically those are illegal and we could get in trouble.

Follow @NinersNation

by David Fucillo on Oct 2, 2011 7:25 AM PDT up reply actions

Very True

I have been reading (and enjoying) this site for months and this is my first post

by Kricket on Oct 1, 2011 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions

I read the site for months

then registered and then waited two months before my first post. Its actually common. Welcome Timmy Truster and Mr. Cricket

by mcwagner on Oct 1, 2011 3:29 PM PDT up reply actions

It's Mr Kricket with a ( K ) , C'mon Papa Waggy lets welcome the ( Rite ) ...!!

I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ...Jimmy Raye your no daisy ...!!

by Edggy on Oct 1, 2011 4:06 PM PDT up reply actions

Dang . really fubarred that one ... them ( Rite ) ...!!

I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ...Jimmy Raye your no daisy ...!!

by Edggy on Oct 1, 2011 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions

welcome

I don’t get a welcome in to every new user, but all are of course welcome.

Follow @NinersNation

by David Fucillo on Oct 1, 2011 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions

No offense taken TimmyWeTrust

Thanks for reading and for the feedback.

Follow me on Twitter
twitter.com/derekre3

by DerekRE_3 on Oct 1, 2011 4:09 PM PDT up reply actions

it wouldn't be a week in the NFL...

…without at least 2 “WTF?” upsets. I think SF, Seattle, Carolina, or Oakland have a shot at the big upset win.

by dlh on Oct 1, 2011 2:17 PM PDT reply actions

Yep

Unfortunately, I have zero condlfidence in my ability to ever predict one of those upsets.

Follow me on Twitter
twitter.com/derekre3

by DerekRE_3 on Oct 1, 2011 2:24 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions

going out on a limb

Maybe it’s my tormented inner Eagles fan that’s predicting their collapse on Sunday. Michael Vick with a gimpy hand, the 49ers D Line, Vernon Davis, and the Eagles’ propensity for totally blowing it in must-win situations gives me some faith in a 49er upset here.

by dlh on Oct 1, 2011 2:36 PM PDT reply actions

Contradict yourself much?

I can’t go against the Harbaugh bloodline. It wouldn’t be right.

And

Winner: Eagles

Seems you are going against one Harbaugh and not the other because…Bloodline?

Here’s the real reasons you picked the Ravens:

Anquan Boldin, Ray Rice and rookie sensation Torrey Smith

Not to mention their solid defense and ruthless coaching staff.

Anyone else impressed by the solid production of Ray Lewis even in his late carreer? I wonder how many years we get to keep Patrick Willlis and Navorro Bowman.

A pie can be divided into many pieces. For MOST people the goal is to get as many pieces of that pie as possible. It is my goal to eat the WHOLE pie.

by Fat Willie on Oct 1, 2011 2:40 PM PDT reply actions

Good call

Though I’m trying my best to not take myself seriously with these picks. So a little contradiction here and there doesn’t really bother me.

And yes, Willis/Bowman is already one of the best, if not the best, MLB combos in the league right now. The front seven as a whole I think is a top 5, probably top 3, in the league.

Follow me on Twitter
twitter.com/derekre3

by DerekRE_3 on Oct 1, 2011 4:09 PM PDT up reply actions

Soon you won't have to contradict

Fingers crossed

A pie can be divided into many pieces. For MOST people the goal is to get as many pieces of that pie as possible. It is my goal to eat the WHOLE pie.

by Fat Willie on Oct 1, 2011 4:36 PM PDT up reply actions

I agree

I agree that he 49ers should be the underdog. I believe they are 8 or 9 pt. dog. But like you I have hope. Although the Eagles have loaded up with defensive backs. They are suffering the same thing the 49ers and other teams are. A short preseason. This is a team sport and so far the eagles new men haven’t meshed. Hope it takes one more game.

by 49er faithful on Oct 1, 2011 6:40 PM PDT reply actions

Interesting???

I had just recently started posting but i have been reading for over a year now…

by Zintzun22niner on Oct 1, 2011 6:43 PM PDT via mobile reply actions

By the way

I love this site. My favorite by far especially during the draft and lockout.

by Zintzun22niner on Oct 1, 2011 6:45 PM PDT via mobile reply actions

thanks and welcome

Glad you’ve enjoyed it. Ever have any questions, comments, concerns, email me at ninersnation@gmail.com

Follow @NinersNation

by David Fucillo on Oct 1, 2011 6:53 PM PDT up reply actions

I just wanna read more about when Aldon and Cully might be ready??

And Dobbs when will he get a chance to prove himself. I’m really liking these rookies and Brock seems solid for his second year.

by Zintzun22niner on Oct 1, 2011 7:01 PM PDT via mobile reply actions

From what I can tell

Aldon Smith is being brought along slowly. He’s been a 4-3 DE and is transition to a 3-4 OLB. They are bringing him in on obvious passing downs (usually third downs) where all he has to worry about is bringing a pass rush. They don’t want him dropping into coverage too much. I do love the 4-3 look the 49ers have though. They can kick Justin Smith and Ray McDonald inside when they show a 4-3 alignment. A pass rush of the Smiths and McDonald is great, at least on paper.

Culliver has all the physical ability to be a good corner, he just needs to keep working on his technique and get more experience. He has only played around seven games at the corner position in games that count.

Dobbs won’t dress unless we have injuries on the defensive line, but he’s not a bad option at all and was definitely worth keeping around as a developmental player at the end of the 53 man roster.

Follow me on Twitter
twitter.com/derekre3

by DerekRE_3 on Oct 1, 2011 8:02 PM PDT up reply actions

Thanks

I have high hopes for these guys and i would love it if they rotated Dobbs in with will tukafu every few games to give them a look.

by Zintzun22niner on Oct 1, 2011 8:21 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions

Yeah I'd like to see Dobbs as well

I think the reason why Tukuafu has seen time and Dobbs hasn’t is because the team (Jim Tomsula in particular) is more familiar with him.

They feel that having Smith, Sopoaga, McDonald, Ricky Jean, and Tukuafu active on game day is enough, so Dobbs hadn’t been active. Ricky Jean being able to play all three spots doesn’t help Dobbs’ chances of being active.

Follow me on Twitter
twitter.com/derekre3

by DerekRE_3 on Oct 1, 2011 8:33 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions