Alex Smith Since 'that game' v's Philadelphia. A Calendar Year Statistical Retrospective
by the Enigmatic Panda on Oct 10, 2011 9:26 AM PDT
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PrintAnyone who follows me on Twitter knows that I am a staunch advocate of not booing your own players and not being a d**k about guys on your own team. By default, this makes me a defender of Alex Smith. Or as the 'haters' would call me - 'a lover of' or a 'excuse maker for' Alex Smith. If Smith was as bad as some of the crazier, more vociferous haters would suggest, then I would just shut my mouth, cross my fingers and hope for the best (wait for Kaepernick, because he is not ready yet).
So after the jump (always wanted to say that!), I will put up some numbers that you all may find quite interesting. They are the sort of numbers that the 'haters' don't want to hear. Please, look at these numbers with an open mind and consider what would be said about a QB on any other team that was posting them.
"We Want Carr! We want Carr! We Want Carr!" Candlestick Park, San Francisco, CA. 10/10/2010
I decided to take a little statistical look at Smith over the last calendar year, which nicely fits in with 'that' game v's the Eagles on the 10/10/2010. What date is it today?... 10/10/2011... would you look at that, perfect!
Since the Eagles at home last season, Smith has started only 12 games due to the injury he suffered in Carolina 2 weeks later. I have taken all his single game stat and added them all together to see what they look like. I have also averaged them out to see what they look like over a full season. I'll give you the stats now, then I will add a little commentary as to the how's, what's and why's afterwards.
Smith's Last 12 Starts
Att - 307 Comp - 194 Comp % -63.2 Yards - 2415 Td's - 18 INT's - 4 QBRTE - 101.6 Fumbles Lost - 3 Sacks - 31
Win/Loss Record 7-5
What These Stats Say To Me
Firstly, for a guy that has thrown 18 TD's to 4 INT's and given up 3 Fumbles to be on a team that is only 7-5, well that team has greater worries than the QB.
Secondly, 31 sacks given up over a 12 game stretch! It's amazing he hasn't thrown MORE INT's, lost MORE fumbles and spent MORE time on the physios table than he already has.
Stats Averaged Out Over a Season
This is a bit of a self indulgent hypothetical set of numbers to be looking at, but it gives interesting results that might not be too far wrong come the end of the season.
Att - 408 Comp - 258 Comp % - 63.2 Yards - 3220 TD's - 24 INT's - 6 QBRTE 101.6 Fumbles Lost - 4 Sacks -41
Win/Loss Record 10/6 or 9/7 (depending on which way you round up or down the numbers beyond the decimal point)
Again, what does this mean?
Well really, a whole lot of nothing. But to look at these numbers and and then look at a 9-7 record, I'd expect a QB posting these numbers to be on at least a 11-5 team. What it says is that for a QB that's been sacked 41 times to ONLY throw 6 INT's and give up 4 fumbles is nothing short of a miracle. It also says that along with the offensive line, either the Defense and/or the running game isn't pulling it's weight.
Again, I'm not saying Smith will finish the season with these stats - they may be worse, or they may be better. Who knows? But I do think they can be used as a decent indicator as to what to expect over the next 11 games. Here is the opponent breakdown of the 12 game sample and the final 11 games of this season;
Last 12
Wins: v's Oakland, v's Seattle, v's Arizona, v's Seattle, @Cincinnati, @Philadelphia, v's Tampa Bay
Losses: v's Philadelphia, v's Carolina (Injured 3rd Q), @San Diego, @St. Louis, v's Dallas
Next 12
@Detroit, v's Cleveland, @Washington, v's NY Giants, v's Arizona, @Baltimore, v's St. Louis, @Arizona, v's Pittsburgh, @Seattle, @St. Louis
With stat's like Smith is putting up this year, considering his last 12 starts AND the hypothetical 16 game season - I fully expect a worse case scenario out of these remaining 11 games to be 7-4. 9-2 wouldnt be out of the realms of possibility for any other team sitting at 4-1 with a QB posting these types of recent numbers.
So the 16 game projection is just that, but to be honest, looking at the remainder of the schedule, I think it's under what it will eventually be. If the O-Line can tighten up and reduce the sack out put by 1 sack a game, that's down from 41 to 25... 25!!! That alone should be good for an extra 10-12 completions and 2-3 TD's, it would also likely drop INT's and Fumbles given up by 1 or 2.
At the end of the day, anything can happen in football. We all know Smith can't throw 60 yard bombs, we all know he might only ever be 1 heavy blitz away from a pick 6 disaster or 6 weeks out injured, but the chances of these bad things happening are lessening and lessening with every game. This is due mainly (but not exclusively) to the fact that Harbaugh employs a system that doesn't rely on 60 yard bombs. He has also given Smith the confidence no one else has been able (or willing?) to give him. NEWSFLASH! Our starting QB really is not as bad as some people think he is! So the next time you hear a hater talking s**t about Smith, think about these stats and tell that hater 'that's my Quarterback, that's unfair, we lost as a team'.
Does anyone still want David Carr?
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.
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He should be arond that level, but with 5 more games to play against division teams “LATER” in the season, its hard not to think the team has progressed, and have most of the playbook installed. Not to mention the rookies on defense have grown and adapted to the NFL level as well. Of course all this can change from injuries knocking on wood
This TEAM is arrow up, and hopefully it stays that way.
"I hate it! It looks like a stickup at 7-Eleven. Five guys standing there with their hands in the air."
Norm Sloan
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors."
Weldon Drew
like to add on to the first paragraph
The team can get better as the season progresses
"I hate it! It looks like a stickup at 7-Eleven. Five guys standing there with their hands in the air."
Norm Sloan
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors."
Weldon Drew
Hmm, well his stats may very well be worse even if he plays well
There’s a decent chance they will dictate their running game against the Rams and Cardinals. Meaning sub 200 yard passing games and rushing TDs.
What I’m interested to see is specifically against the teams that have good run defenses. The Steelers, Ravens, Seahawks, Browns. If they go all out to completely shut down the 49ers run game, do the 49ers alter their game plan and throw 35 times. Do they let Alex decide the game. Up until now they have not.
You could argue they SHOULD have in weeks 1 and 3. They won the games anyway, but those were easily games they could have lost by running right into defenses designed to stop the run.
Alex will really earn his bones in those 4 remaining games against run defenses. Perhaps Harbaugh will as well. I’m really excited for it.
by whistlingmountain on Oct 10, 2011 10:47 AM PDT reply actions
The bucs were supposed to be a run stopping power house
and look what happened to them. It will ultimately come down to gameplanning and adjusting to in game situations.
they're 25th in yards per game, 20th in yards per carry
on 49ers schedule,top 4 defenses in yards per carry
- Dalls
- Seattle
- Cinci
- Baltimore
by whistlingmountain on Oct 10, 2011 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Interesting
I like that Cinci team, that was a huge victory for us, just as big as Philly.
by the Enigmatic Panda on Oct 10, 2011 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions
It was a much better win than you would think by watching it
Sometimes it’s gonna be ugly. Good to know the 9ers can win in different ways. We’ve had an ugly one, a comeback, and an all out blowout…
Try watching the games w/out caring about the QB stats...
For instance, Alex was truly “lights out” on Sunday like Harbaugh said. He was awesome. I thought he forced two balls in the 3rd Q, and even then, they weren’t BAD forces and why not take a chance downfield w/a 30-point lead late in the 3rd Q of a game that’s over?
He had a GREAT game. He was: Confident, Fast, Decisvie, Accurate, Moved Well in and out of the pocket, Cool, Composed, Had Swagger, Looked to be Having Fun, Etc. You could SEE ALL THAT. Didn’t need stats to reinforce it.
At the end of the game, I was VERY SURPRISED by his numbers. The game FELT like he would have been MUCH BETTER than 11-18-170-0. Good YPA, 3 TDs with no Int’s is always nice, but nothing gaudy (and I think the 1-game QBR STAT is laughable; what would the QBR difference have been had the receivers on the TDs beeb stopped at the 1 and they would have scored on 3 more 1-yard runs? Guessing it would’ve been huge, even though his play would’ve been the same).
Alex had a great game. Didn’t need to see ANY STATS to tell me that. And the stats I did see, they didn’t show how well he really played.
You can play well and be 10-22-145-2 w/1 TD. Elway had quite a few of these statistical stinkers in games he played well in. Lot of other guys too. System plays a big part, HC, playcalling, weather, opponnent. Lots of stuff.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 11, 2011 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions
I voted that he should be around that level.
I know that he has really taken care of the ball of late, but we are going to be playing 5 more division games (granted this looks good for us) and we are playing two teams later in the season with great defenses (Ravens and Steelers). I am honestly a bit concerned about how we will play against such dominant defenses.
Alex has been doing well. If the numbers over the past year say anything, we are in for a good ride. Hopefully this shows his progression forward.
Better than that level
He’s been getting more and more comfortable in this offense, as has the o-line. He’s been getting more and more opportunities to air it out as well. Right now he’s averaging about 197 yards/game. Aside from the TB game, where we were just dominating the whole day, he has seen his attempts increase weekly: 20, 24, 30, 33 over the first four weeks. As the season progresses I would expect his yardage per game to increase to somewhere around 220-230 per game. That would put him around 3,600 yards by season’s end.
by mr. instigator on Oct 10, 2011 11:36 AM PDT reply actions
I didn’t want to be excessive and make that prediction myself, but that is kinda how I see it unfolding as well.
by the Enigmatic Panda on Oct 10, 2011 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Harbaugh
Coach is improving the offense not just Alex Smith. There is something that is being overlooked by the Alex “lovers”. I am not a Smith hater by any means but I like putting things in persepective. Alex is the beneficiary of having an offensive minded coach who also knows a thing or two about quarterbacking in the NFL. This is why he is improving not because he is suddenly a better player.
Call me cautiously optimistic....because I know what the Niners do to people who have real optimism (see the last 8 years).
it also shows that he was never that bad to begin with
by Andrew9erfan on Oct 10, 2011 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions 6 recs
He had totally legit excuses, but...
…he’s also been pretty bad on his own as well.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 10, 2011 11:35 PM PDT up reply actions
What? My comment doesn't get Rec'd too?
I said the excuses were legit, didn’t I?
:- /
You all suck…
[sulking, kicks dirt, takes ball and bat and walks home…]
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 11, 2011 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions
Yup
Harbaugh is the reason Alex is playing better, it has absolutely nothing to do with Alex at all…that is just crazy. Especially since this very post is taking into account a lot of stats from last year, Harbaugh wasn’t here.
Clearly Harbaugh has helped him, but he wouldn’t have that opportunity if he didn’t see the good things in Alex already. Clearly it is due to both of them and a myriad of other factors.
by Virginia9er on Oct 10, 2011 3:01 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Are we to speculate that...
If Alex Smith was taken by green bay, that he would be lighting it up like how Aaron Rodgers is right now? And that Aaron Rodgers would have stunk it up in the era of Nolan and Singletary?
No, but...
…if that had happened, I’d argue that Smith would be a good player somewhere and that Rodgers would be NO WHERE CLOSE TO THE PLAYER HE IS NOW.
In 3 years of watching and learning from Brett Favre, Rodgers:
—completely overhauled his delivery and mechanics (no more Tedford behind-the-ear bullsh*t)
—got MUCH STRONGER (he has a BAZOOKA now, didn’t have that at Cal)
—got MUCH FASTER (he’s just plain fast for a QB; nowhere close to that at Cal)
—had an opportunity to digest ONE OFFENSE and learn from WATCHING without getting his head caved in (an underrated benefit to not playing early… ;-D)
That NEVER WOULD HAVE HAPPENED had he been thrown to wolves like Alex Smith was.
I think Rodgers would have fared better, perhaps performed better, but then again…maybe not. It really HAS BEEN THAT BAD here in San Francisco since 2005.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 10, 2011 11:47 PM PDT up reply actions
We'd better watch out... we're again in agreement here!!!
After all was said and done, a lot more got said than done.
Im in agreement here too
Ive had a lot of people shout me down for making that exact same argument. Like Rodgers would have suddenly made one of the three weakest teams in the league over a 3-4 year spell suddenly a magical all-star team pushing for a super bowl. There are a small group of Niner fans on Twitter, here and on other fansites that seem to take the material for their arguments from just 2 or 3 sources, it’s the same 2 or 3 names that pop up all the time. You can almost guarantee that if one of the top haters says something trashy about player X, then the minions are all posting the exact same garbage within the hour. Some 49er fans need to start thinking for themselves. It’s not the 1980’s anymore; Joe Jerry, Steve and Ronnie are gone. If you are holding these guys up as an expectation level, you are only ever going to be disappointed.
by the Enigmatic Panda on Oct 11, 2011 7:56 AM PDT up reply actions
The pattern that's developing in my opinion...
…is that you tend to agree w/me…
…when you’re thinking clearly.
;-D
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 11, 2011 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm the guy that's always said Rodgers might not have survived and people roll their eyes
The guy is an amazing talent with a fatal weakness. His brain. He’s had concussion problems while NOT getting beaten to death in 3 years of performance in GB. Imagine if he got his head caved in weekly for 6 years. I honestly believe he’d quite possibly be out of the league with head injuries.
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Oct 11, 2011 9:32 PM PDT up reply actions
I guess you forget
How many sacks Rodgers took in his first 2 years starting full time.
His line was once just as bad as Alex’s line.
by King$wagTree on Oct 12, 2011 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Just like Alex...
…lots of Rodger’s sacks were on him, not just his line.
Unlike Alex, many of Rodgers sacks came as a result of a CONFIDENT player holding the ball too long as he looked to make a BIG PLAY DOWNFIELD.
I think the one point in this debate that is more than mere speculation:
—Rodgers would NOT be as good as he is now had the 49ers drafted him.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 12, 2011 9:45 PM PDT up reply actions
"...with a fatal weakness. His brain."
I know you are referring to concussions but…
…that is still unintentionally hysterical.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 12, 2011 9:51 PM PDT up reply actions
A lot of people have been saying with better coahes, Alex would get much better.
Well, he has a better coach.
Check out my site!! Sign up for a free account @
The Hometown Fan
that’s pretty much what I was saying. Although even if you go back to 2009, you can see a steady if unspectacular progression up to today. Harbaugh and the system are like the final jolt that’s pushing him around that corner he has been trying to turn for 2 years. It just pisses me off that you get these guys that think if you haven’t ‘got it’ by your 3rd or 4th year, then you can never be a success as an NFL QB. One of the greatest examples (and extremely relevant this weekend of all weekends) of that being utter nonsense is Jim Plunkett. Surround a guy with the right coaches, team and atmosphere and anything is possible.
by the Enigmatic Panda on Oct 10, 2011 12:21 PM PDT reply actions
And Steve Young...
He was constantly booed in San Francisco for not being Joe Montana before he won that Super Bowl.
Rich Gannon was a monster at the very end of his career
Had he not gotten injured he’d be throwing for 4500 yards a season at nearly 40
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Oct 11, 2011 9:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Alex Smith is a good QB
Period. People will learn to accept that.
Let’s post something awesome right here that people simply cannot argue with:
1 Aaron Rodgers GB QB 122.9
2 Tom Brady NE QB 109.5
3 Alex Smith SF QB 104.1
4 Drew Brees NO QB 102.3
Alex Smith Will Win a Superbowl
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Alex-Smith-Will-Win-a-Superbowl/205058042848290
Yawn...
Yeah… No one can argue w/that. Smith’s a little bit better than Brees.
And hey, it’s Week 5. It’s not like QBR can FLUCTUATE much over the course of the next 12 weeks…
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 10, 2011 11:50 PM PDT up reply actions
I never said Smith was better than Brees
His current QB rating is better, though. Take that for what it’s worth.
Me, personally, I take that to mean Alex is playing very well right now. And if someone playing well makes them something other than good at what they do, then I don’t know what to say.
Alex Smith Will Win a Superbowl
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Alex-Smith-Will-Win-a-Superbowl/205058042848290
by liberty_JAC on Oct 11, 2011 12:00 AM PDT up reply actions
Mehhhhh.... You're hedging...
:-D
YOUUUUU sandwiched Alex in there nicely between Rodgers, Brady, and Brees.
Sorry. There’s an IMPLIED, SUBVERSIVE message in that methinks……
Seriously, don’t do that to Alex yet. Yeah. He’s played very well…TWO weeks in a row. Arguably well all season (and that’s BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT…it’s not my opinion).
To be a GOOD NFL QB, you need to play like Alex has played the last 2 weeks NEARLY EVERY WEEK. Or at least close to it, somewhere in the ballpark… Those guys you classed him with (regardless of whether you were SIMPLY showing the top 4 QBR guys after WEEK FIVE OF A 17-WEEK SEASON or not), they’ve been playing like Alex played on Sunday for YEARS ON END. LITERALLY. NEARLY EVERY WEEK.
You can’t talk about Smith in the same breath w/those guys yet. No way.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 11, 2011 12:46 AM PDT up reply actions
To CLARIFY for those...
…who would kill me w/my own bullsh*t.
“To be a GOOD NFL QB, you need to play like Alex has played the last 2 weeks NEARLY EVERY WEEK.”
I mean that you need to play with CONFIDENCE, with DECISIVENESS, and with INTELLIGENCE. You need to play FAST. You need to play one-play-at a time, and you CAN’T dwell on mistakes. You need to fight through adversity with SWAGGER.
You NEVER LOSE, you simply run out of time.
I don’t mean that he needs to throw for 3 TD’s each week, hit 65+% of his throws, or have a QBR north of 90. I don’t care about 300 yard games. I don’t care about 200 yard games for that matter (Sunday was what, 170?). He’s not going to ‘Win’ every week. He’ll have rough games, rough stretches, bad stats. I don’t care about all that. It’s not ABOUT THAT.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 11, 2011 12:58 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't disagree with you
Right now, Smith is playing as good as those gentleman I listed him with. He’s playing fantastic football at the moment – for the past two weeks, certainly, but all season thus far as well.
I completely agree with you regarding consistency. I’d like to see Alex play this well for the next couple years, and win a Superbowl. Then we won’t have any problem mentioning his name with theirs.
Until that point, I’m still going to acknowledge good football play when I see it. Since I made that post within the context of defending Smith from his various detractors, I think it makes perfect sense to say:
“Hey, well, as of right now, he’s playing 3rd best in the league according to quarterback rating. He’s only got one pick and his completion percentage is near the top as well. And that’s not just because of frequent check-downs, as his average yards is at a respectable 7.7. Etc., etc., etc.”
I am just saying Smith is playing well. Through the first 5 weeks, as well as most quarterbacks in the league. We’ll see what happens at Detroit, but I have confidence in him and think this quality play will continue – hopefully into the post-season.
Alex Smith Will Win a Superbowl
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Alex-Smith-Will-Win-a-Superbowl/205058042848290
Good points. Well-taken.
Keep in mind…
Not everyone AGREES w/how well he’s been playing and for how long.
Citing the stats (especially QBR this EARLY in a season) to make the point, well, I think it GIVES AMMO to the detractors to question whether the stats are being interpreted correctly.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 11, 2011 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions
Due to his play during the previous years with the Niners I was not an Alex Fan.
I am very pleased with his progress this year and hope to see more. I am not eating my words yet….. But I am getting out the salt and pepper.
EP, I, too, am an "Alex apologist", though I'd prefer to think of it as simply being open-minded
enough to see things as they really are, not colored by prejudices of years long in the past. I had done the identical statistical breakdown that you just did (I’m an old retired guy with way too much time on his hands LOL). I’ve double-checked, and I believe one of your stats to be incorrect… over the last 12 games, Alex has attempted 317 passes rather than 307, and that in turn lowers his completion % to 61.2% and his QB rating to 98.5
What follows is a repost of something I posted to another thread earlier today, but it is appropriate here, as well. Bracketed words/phrases [ ] are things in which I changed the wording slightly to make it more appropriate for this thread…
Of all QBs who’ve thrown over 100 passes this season, Alex is:
third in QB rating (104.1)
sixth in completion % (65.9%)
tied for first with Aaron Rodgers in TD / int ratio (7.0 : 1)—other than Rodgers and Smith, only one NFL QB has a TD / int ratio above 3.0 : 1 (that being Matthew Stafford at 3.6666… : 1)
Granted, Smith is quite low in a couple of statistical categories, and [some] seem to be condemning him because of that.
[It needs to be understood] that the head coach and the offensive coordinator are NOT ASKING Alex to do certain things. He’s performing at a high level, clearly (at least to me) BETTER than "average to slightly above average" in those things that he’s being asked to do.
To use baseball as a metaphor, you’re condemning the leadoff hitter because he doesn’t rank in the top ten in the league in HRs, nor in RBIs. Personally, I DON’T CARE IF MY LEADOFF HITTER IS LOW IN HRs AND RBIs, BECAUSE THAT’S NOT WHAT I’M ASKING HIM TO DO. I’m highly satisfied if he’s in the top five in on-base percentage, stolen bases, and runs scored.
After all was said and done, a lot more got said than done.
by OldJock on Oct 10, 2011 2:37 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
I like the lead off hitter analogy. Do what the team needs you to do. If we wanted him to throw 350 yards a game then he needs to throw 45 times a game, we would also need to give him a genuine deep threat receiver to play with. While Braylon may yet prove to be that deep threat, he isn’t even on the field right now. It seems we are playing like the team Sing wanted us to be, by the time we get to the rest of the division games (5 outta the last 7 If memory serves) I think we will be the team Harbaugh wants us to be. There are guys that I dont think are good enough for the team in a couple of positions, now and again I’ll get frustrated and bitch about them, but in general I keep my mouth shut and hope that either the team carries them until someone better comes along, or they learn and improve. No point in being negative, life is too short. Thanks for your comment and I’ll fix those wrong numbers, maths was never my strong point.
by the Enigmatic Panda on Oct 10, 2011 3:49 PM PDT up reply actions
>>"It seems we are playing like the team Sing wanted us to be"<<
I’ve made that exact same comment on numerous occasions. You know what they say about “great minds”… and I’m glad that somebody liked the baseball metaphor… thanks.
After all was said and done, a lot more got said than done.
But do the current love JESUS as much? Answer me that!
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 11, 2011 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions
I Apologise, I suck at Maths
As pointed out by OldJock, I have in fact made a small mathematical error… “over the last 12 games, Alex has attempted 317 passes rather than 307, and that in turn lowers his completion % to 61.2% and his QB rating to 98.5”
Whilst it does lower his completion percentage and QB rating, I’m sure you can all appreciate that it isn’t THAT big an aberation and the numbers still look pretty damn good!
Apologies again.
David
by the Enigmatic Panda on Oct 10, 2011 3:56 PM PDT reply actions
Case Made to Haters, NOT to Critics...
You put a lot of time into this Post and I really appreciate it.
Very cool to look at the information and consider the numbers. That was a lot of work.
I think your information is ABSOLUTE PROOF to the #11 HATERS that he’s not TERRIBLE. But I don’t get caught up in the HATER/LOVER arguments (other than to needle… Sorry, sue me…) that are pointless.
Spirited debate by those simply disagreeing about how good or bad he’s been? I love that… Love talking QB in any way/shape/form.
I think the numbers are proof that WINNING as a QB goes a lot deeper than simply looking at the STATS. His stats are those of guy who should be leading at least an 11-win team. You claim it’s because of the team around him, I say IT’S BECAUSE HE HASN’T PLAYED AS WELL AS HIS NUMBERS SUGGEST. I’d also say in this case — not to win an argument, but because I’m making an educated guess from your analysis/writing — that I have more experience w/playing QB and studying football than you have. In my experience, guys who’ve PLAYED look more at WINNING, guys who haven’t look more at STATS.
Even after prefacing your Post w/what a defender and fan of Smith’s you are (etc), you still closed w/writing things such as: “We all know Smith can’t throw 60 yard bombs”. We do? I don’t know that… That’s not necessarily true. He’s got plenty of arm. He got the ball downfield yesterday. He’s done in the past… You did EXACTLY what the HATERS do. They just write something arbitrarily, then say “Everybody knows it’s true, etc, etc .”
I’ve said this to death but I’ll say it once more: Confidence and Consistency are Alex Smith’s biggest issues. His numbers — BECAUSE I’VE WATCHED HIM TAKE EVERY SNAP IN EACH ONE OF THOSE 12 STARTS — they illustrate a QB who’s had good games and not-so-good games while typically playing very CAUTIOUSLY.
BECAUSE I’VE WATCHED HIM PLAY, those STATS illustrate my point about a QB who hasn’t played FAST, who hasn’t been DECISIVE, who’s been tenative and held on to the ball to long, etc, etc. They make the point about STATS lying at times depending upon the interpretation, about WINNING being underrated as far as a QB stat, and how the QB impacts the typical fan’s assessement of how the OLine is performing.
I’m fine w/MY INTERPRETATION OF THE STATS being harshly criticized by those who disagree (bring on the HATE… ;-D). Just keep in mind that many of us who have been and continue to be staunch critics of Alex Smith, well, many of us also root like crazy for the guy, have done so for SEVEN YEARS, and would like nothing more than to see him complete this budding journey of redemption as an athlete. His courage and his character have been severely tested — all right on the grand stage for all of us to witness — and he’s once again rising back up to meet the challenge and, in doing so, silence people like me — the critics.
Thanks again for the time and effort you put into your post!
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 10, 2011 9:09 PM PDT reply actions
IFWMO, in this post you stated "In my experience, guys who’ve PLAYED look more at WINNING, guys
who haven’t look more at STATS". Try explaining me… I played football, 4 years in high school followed by 4 years in college, then coached for 14 years at both the high school and college levels. Additionally, I have a Bachelor’s Degree in Mathematics, and am totally statistic oriented.
Am I simply an exception to the rule, or does my experience playing / coaching fall short of your benchmark?
You also said “I have more experience w/playing QB and studying football than you have” (talking to EP). Combining these two quotes, one can only surmise that you are more about winning than statistics, but you then state “His stats are those of guy who should be leading at least an 11-win team”, a statement which is totally statistic-dependent (11 wins is itself a statistic). I find this to be somewhat self-contradictory… maybe you should lighten up on us stats guys a little, as that last quote shows that, at heart, you’re really one of us…. welcome to the club. Just messin’ with ya a little…
Back to being serious, there are so many variables involved (see, I always revert back to math terms) in statistics vs winning… it depends when in the course of the game the stats are compiled, which is as much a function (another math term) of the play calling as it is the execution, and the execution of the 10 other players on the field on your side, plus the execution by the opponent, etc, etc, etc
Winning IS important, and it is always the ultimate goal, but there are SO many factors that are beyond the QB’s control, that it is often necessary to use OTHER statistics in judging a player’s performance (regardless of that player’s position (should we ignore Patrick’s tackles, and simply judge him by Ws and Ls also, since that’s how you suggest we judge Alex?))
BTW, I would be interested in knowing a little more about your playing background. Perhaps we are kindred spirits, and don’t even know it.
After all was said and done, a lot more got said than done.
I mean EXACTLY THAT...
“In my experience”…
Not your experience. MY experience… :-D
As you know, I WILL NOT BE EDITING this stuff so…parDONEemWAHH if my logic ain’t great and I use STATS that I say aren’t stats. I’m sure I am SELF-CONTRADICTORY. Wife and kids just call it “troubled”…
By “guys who’ve played”, I mean QB’s (you know, QB’s, not ACTUAL athletes… ;-D). My experience is that QBs see all the little stuff that doesn’t always get reflected accurately in interpretation of all the stats. I’ll give one exampe here only because…hell, I could rip off 10,000 by morning if I’m not careful:
John Elway… Great QB for his entire career. I’d say he was slightly better w/Shanahan as his HC. The numbers would indicate (off the top of my head again, I’ve no actual idea of what they are specifically, look ‘em up, great chance to nail me if I’m wrong) he was A LOT BETTER than he was w/Reeves. Shanahan ran a stat friendly system and Reeves did not. Basically the same player w/both guys. And Shanny was his QBC and OC in Denver as well so, really, what changed? The player or the stats? And I’m more impressed w/3 mediocre teams led by Elway MAKING THE SUPER BOWL than the 2 that won it…
I won’t try and vet myself here, nor reveal myself (and I’m not being coy; I could post my SSN and address, it wouldn’t matter… It’s not like I’m…“Mike Cofer”), but I imagine we are indeed kindred spirits. And my guess would be that you played in college BEFORE I did, before the 1990’s? Just a guess from your posts.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 11, 2011 12:13 AM PDT reply actions
And, BTW, in case it's not clear, all my football opinions...
…come from the belief that QBs in today’s game are FAR MORE IMPORTANT TO WINNING than any other player on the field.
Because of that, a QBs “Wins” are a very important stat, where any other players “Wins” are not. As for creating the actual formula to incorporate “Ws” into yet the latest version of the QBR…? I’ll leave that to you. You’re the one w/the degree after all…
;-D
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 11, 2011 12:22 AM PDT up reply actions
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