49ers vs. Lions, Odds: Detroit Opens As Six Point Favorite, Falls To Five
by David Fucillo on Oct 11, 2011 7:30 AM PDT
in NFL Gambling
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PrintShortly after the conclusion of Monday Night Football last night, lines began opening for the 49ers upcoming contest with the Detroit Lions and the the 49ers were installed as six point underdogs. It is a fairly high line for a 5-0 team versus a 4-1 team, but it is not really all that surprising given the fact that the 49ers still somehow seem to be modestly under the radar even after the 48-3 shellacking of the Bucs.
However, things quickly got interesting last night as within no more than an hour or two, the line dropped from 6 to 5 1/2 to 5 over at Scores And Odds. It seemed fairly quick for there to be changes, but could it be that people are pouring in money on the 49ers to cover that sizable line?
I generally stay away from betting on the 49ers week to week, but I find following the lines rather fascinating. In this case, it doesn't necessarily mean people think the 49ers can win this game. Rather, it could mean they simply view this as a game that could come down to the wire. The 49ers are turning into a team that will be competitive in every game, wining some blowouts and losing some tough ones. This could start to be reflected a little more frequently in the weekly spreads.
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You could say that
But, I think the loss was good for the team. I think it is helping them keep a level head, and not get too far in front of themselves.
Besides, being 5-0 could put unwanted pressure on this team. Mostly having them think they need to keep that record perfect. We also would probably be in the media more, which right now I am kind of how where we stand. Yes, I would love to see 10 minute segments on t.v. about the niners, but again, it adds to the pressure.
I love what the niners bring to the table every Sunday, and that is the first time in 10 years I can say that with confidence.
What I am trying to say is the perfect record is something I can get over, especially because the law of averages says they would have lost at some other point during the season anyway.
this time doesn't rise and fall with emotions anymore
I would’ve totally agreed with this last year, but this team is going to be prepared no matter how much hoopla surrounds it that’s just the nature of Harbaugh.
by haroldandsivakumar on Oct 11, 2011 8:20 AM PDT up reply actions
no huddle offense, that does sound like a good idea; force them to get oxygen after a bruiser against the Bears and a short week
by Doni S on Oct 11, 2011 11:55 AM PDT via iPhone app up reply actions
TB was favored by 3 last Sunday, right?
…just another example of the masses lacking respect…Jimmy and Co. seem to thrive on that kinda thing anyway
Yes, by two points.
Remember, home team gets +3 advantage, so really it means TB was slightly, slightly expected to be the better team.
In this case, the Lions are at home with a 5-point spread, which means that although people expect the Lions to win, they expect it to be close. That makes sense, honestly, from a national standpoint. I think a lot of people really want that 10-0 vs 10-0 divisional matchup on Thanksgiving, and are trying to write off the Niners not because they’re a worse team, but because they love Detroit. I get that. I just don’t agree.
Could be a 9-1 vs 9-1 matchup also. The Ravens and Niners!
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
Whatever the records are, it's going to be a great matchup and I'm looking forward to it.
But even if we don’t beat the Lions, someone else will before then. The Lions are just too volatile a team to keep up the undefeated record.
Green Bay, on the other hand, is consistently good and doesn’t seem to have much of a problem getting or keeping leads. The Ravens almost spoiled the 2007 Pats perfect season before the bogus fourth down false start penalty: let’s see if they can do the same to the Pack. Man, I wish we were playing GB this year.
Niners have covered every week
Or tied one if you bet them at +3 to Dallas after it fell from +3.5
- Thank you SF Giants for an incredible 2010 season and painting the City orange & black!
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
I can't seem to remember... did the 49ers beat the spread ? ;-)
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
I think it was a backdoor cover
"Hi my name is Cliff Harris and I am here to lock [site decorum] down" - Cliff Harris introduction at his Freshman Orientation
Reporter : "What do you remember about the BCS title game"
Cliff Harris: "That we lost"
"Stopping the run doesn't come because of scheme. It come because of want to." - Donte Whitner
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When Jim Harbaugh says "more is more" I think he is trying to say Moore is more.
Dismantling even the HC at TB
One of the more rare opportunities that I have had a chance to watch was the TB vs. SF game last Sunday…The HC for TB got flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct…The shear frustrastion hit the coaching level…
I can honestly (FINALLY) say this with a straight face
We play a 5-0 supposedly top level team on Sunday, and we are going to win.
We. Are. Going. To. Win.
Detroit looks good, but not unstoppable. Harbaugh will protect Alex unlike Lovie protected Cutler. The defense doesn’t scare me, and Best will have to make catches, because he ain’t running on our front 7. Again, I really believe we can, and will, win this game, moving us to 5-1 at the bye.
Also, nice to see some love finally. I’ve seen a lot of power rankings with the Niners around 6-8.
"Bears are crazy, Willie. They'll bite your head off if you're wearing steak on it."
I agree.
Detroit is not as good as their 5-0 says. We just pummeled a playoff-caliber team (arguably) after a 2-week stay on the East Coast. Looking at both games, the Niners just look like a better team.
But remember that it’s not always the best team that wins. The Lions could win this, but it would probably have to come down to some lucky plays on their part. But the Niners are just a better, more balanced team: we will win in the run game on both sides of the ball, and we’ll dominate field position. I don’t think a one-dimensional offense can beat that.
Rushes to the outside, slant passes.. that will open things up.. like we did last week.
I believe that with Detroit’s defensive line the Niners will have to start the game like they did last week, and have more sweeps/rushes to the outside and short to medium passes..
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
I think the Niners may start by attacking their weak secondary.
Quick slants, curls, RB flares, get the running game going and then BAM! Williams takes off on the fade.
Megatron still scares me.
We do not have anyone that can stop that (neither does anyone else…).
Suh is a beast, but we can control him. The only way to control Megatron is to get to Stafford fast and often. I am just not sure that we can do that on 40 or so snaps.
They are going to get theirs, so we have to get ours! I hope our O is ready!
It is fun to have a challenging, meaningful game coming up and the team on a roll!
Calvin
is gonna get his yards, no doubt. Our Red Zone D needs to be as good as it’s been.
by mountaindew77 on Oct 11, 2011 10:31 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Carlos can probably stay w/him
if he allows for a big enough cushion; but I think Calvin needs to be double teamed in this 1, just in case.
So…Carlos and some help over the top with Dashon
by Doni S on Oct 11, 2011 12:02 PM PDT via iPhone app up reply actions
Do you know how many times the Lions have heard that story?
No slogans. Just win!!!
I'm sure plenty
You don’t mind do you Doc?
Justin Smith is something else. 100% Effort! 100% Class!
"I was just running toward the ball," Smith said. "The guys in front of him were making him slow up a little bit. I just went for the ball and, luckily, it was there."
Line
Looks like the spread is down to 4.5 now. Dang I wanted to get my bet in ahead of the drop. Well from what I saw last night this could be a very good game or a total lapse by Alex not that my confidence in him is shaken but the rush team for detroit made Cutler work for every pass he got off. Time to dust off the short screens pages in the play book.
Great
Still underrated.
Alex Smith 86%+ QB rating with 22+ TDs this season, hopefully! :)
Things I like
Culliver on Megatron
Bowman and Willis in pursuit of Best
Quick slants to Vernon, Williams and Crabtree
Shotgun draws to and quick runs off guard to Hunter
Blitzing up the middle to move Stafford off his spot and out of Rhythm
Harbaugh will find a QB and he will succeed.
I don't like anybody on Megatron. Especially not a rookie.
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DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Yeah
I would rather put the bus driver on Megatron… a little pre-game “accident”… This will be a tough challenge. We are probably going to like Dashon’s hitting a little more this week. I don’t think that we can stop the jump balls, but we can surely ring his bell after the catch and make him think a little harder about the next one!
by Da Bum on Oct 11, 2011 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Something like that...
We will have no answer for Megatron so going after Stafford will be key.
by Thrashard340 on Oct 11, 2011 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions
We are going to win this game
I truly believe we are a more well-rounded team than detroit, and they’re coming off an emotional win and a short week
...and then Singletary opened His Book and it said "thou shalt NOT pass"
by jimisoursavior on Oct 11, 2011 10:17 AM PDT reply actions
weve got a great chance for sure
Detroit has shown that it will give up points and get off to slower starts.. hopefully the secondary plays up, they allowed some huge gains against Philly. If the offense can be as efficient as its been, we should be more than able to win.
5 or 5.5
I believe Bill Simmons calls this the “Vegas Zone” as in Vegas doesn’t know what to do with the line so they put it at a 5 or 5.5 spread.
Normally teams with these records would be a 3 or 4 point spread for the home team but people don’t know if the Niners (and specifically Alex Smith) can be trusted long-term for betting purposes on the road vs top teams, while the Lions are unlikely to remain undefeated for much longer. This spread seems about right since any result is possible this weekend.
- Thank you SF Giants for an incredible 2010 season and painting the City orange & black!
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Oct. 16th
good win lions,we are looking forward 2 play u @ your house,we have the people 2 match up w/u,it will be that much sweeter to do it @ your house,then they will take the 49ers very seriously.9ers babe!!!!!!!!!yeah u!!!!!!!
Niners 8th in the Power Rankings now via ESPN
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Getting some respect...
9th in NFL.com and SI.com as well.
by Thrashard340 on Oct 11, 2011 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions
Still early but nobody would've thought we'd be ranked as a top 10 team in the entire league at this point in the season.
Or any point for that matter.
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My bad
but I certainly didn’t…
Justin Smith is something else. 100% Effort! 100% Class!
"I was just running toward the ball," Smith said. "The guys in front of him were making him slow up a little bit. I just went for the ball and, luckily, it was there."
Yet they snub us from the highlight reel? That’s not respect…& I think our team might agree w/me on that. Coach Harbs is probably meh, either way…
by Doni S on Oct 11, 2011 12:07 PM PDT via iPhone app up reply actions
Yeah, they did
I saw Packers-Falcons highlights multiple times during an hour of watching Sportscenter, but nothin’ on the Niners. Unbelievable.
Amazingly enough, one of the anchors mentioned the fact that Niner fans had been flooding ESPN with complaints about the lack of coverage. He said in a little aside as the program ended “Hey Niner fans, you want your team to get covered, then beat Detroit next week” (or something to that effect).
Pretty harsh, but it’s gonna take a lot of time and a lot of wins to wash away the stench of those “old” Niner teams from the past 5-6 years.
Correct me if I'm wrong...
but aren’t the Niners 5-0 gainst the spread this year?
4-0-1
I believe they pushed against the Cowboys.
by David Fucillo on Oct 11, 2011 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions
The Lions have covered the spread in their last 9 games, dating back to last year.
And all of them have been wins.
No slogans. Just win!!!
Then it seems it's about time
to revert to the mean Doc.
It’s going to be a battle… but with all due respect I hope you lose!
Go Niners!
Justin Smith is something else. 100% Effort! 100% Class!
"I was just running toward the ball," Smith said. "The guys in front of him were making him slow up a little bit. I just went for the ball and, luckily, it was there."
Game Plan
To neutralize Megatron and Suh….run the ball, control TOP, keep the Lion offense off the field, and let loose some of those blitzes that we’ve been waiting for!
Down to 4pt or 4.5pt Faves now...
…depending on the source (the 2 referenced above).
Looks like there are more believers out there! :)
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