Football Outsiders Playoff Odds: 49ers Fans, Be Vewwwy, Vewwwy Quiet
by David Fucillo on Oct 12, 2011 6:01 AM PDT
in San Francisco 49ers News
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PrintI suppose posting about the 49ers increasing playoff odds goes against the title of this post, but I can live with that. I've posted the odds twice and the 49ers have one twice. I've weened myself off most of my superstitions at this point, but I'll stick with this one for now.
Football Outsiders released their latest playoff odds and the 49ers continue rocketing upward to 97.5%. They now have the highest odds of making the playoffs in the NFL. The Packers are second at 97.4%. In the NFC West, the Seattle Seahawks are at 9.4%. It is also interesting to note that the 49ers have the third highest Super Bowl odds at 13.1%. This reflects their ability but also reflects how much closer they are to securing a playoff berth than other teams.
For those wondering how FO determines their odds, they reflect FO running the season 10,000 times. Wins and losses are assigned using a combination of DAVE ratings for each team and home field advantage in every single game to come up with odds following each week. I've posted the NFC West odds at the end of this post.
FO also released their latest DVOA ratings, which help provide an idea of the overall offensive, defensive and special teams efficiency we are seeing from a given team. DVOA is not a perfect rating, but it provides some interesting points to consider. Following week five, the 49ers are ranked second in DVOA thanks to a No. 14 ranking in offensive efficiency and No. 2 rankings in defensive and special teams efficiency.
The offense took a sizable step up from No. 23 thanks to their huge performance against Tampa Bay. The 49ers improvement comes in part due to drastic improvements the last two weeks in the rushing game, and a solid consistency lately in the passing game. The 49ers rank No. 23 in rushing efficiency, and No. 7 in passing efficiency.
Alex Smith has seen improvements for himself as he is up to No. 15 in DYAR and No. 10 in QB DVOA. DYAR represents total value while DVOA looks at value per play. Many will disagree with Smith's standing, but again it's simply one more way to reference his performance.
In his weekly intro to the rankings, FO founder Aaron Schatz addressed some of the more controversial rankings, which naturally includes the 49ers. As he described it, "[t]he DVOA system loves big, dominating wins, and the 49ers certainly had one this week." While one win does not make a season, a dominant win against a reportedly good team can a long ways to show how legit a team is.
The 49ers were still 11th before the game, so the dominance only reinforced the quality. He did suggest the 49ers DVOA would go down as the season wore on because of opponent adjustments. The 49ers have played the 26th most difficult schedule to date and their remaining schedule is last in the NFL. As long as they keep winning, who cares, but it is useful to know when assessing the team.
PLAYOFF ODDS
| Team | Rec | DAVE | Mean Ws | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | DIV | BYE | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 4-1 | 20.3% | 11.1 | 20.5% | 31.7% | 25.1% | 18.9% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 96.2% | 52.2% | 1.3% | 97.5% | 8.4% |
| SEA | 2-3 | -18.3% | 6.6 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 0.5% | 6.3% | 9.4% | 4.6% |
| ARI | 1-4 | -23.7% | 5.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 1.0% | -7.4% |
| STL | 0-4 | -29.9% | 3.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | -0.6% |
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One twice?
Yuo are so much better than this (smile)…
Just busting your chops – you do a great job!
The Playoff Scenarios is interesting
13% of a super bowl win? I mean if that were the case, why are their super bowl odds still around 30-1?
by whistlingmountain on Oct 12, 2011 6:50 AM PDT reply actions
the blowout
against TB is probably inflating their numbers quite a bit – basically the best team in the NFC (2nd in the NFL after the Bills). No one, even the guys who wrote this stat and software believes that – but basically for 6 quarters they have been awesome and the season is still short. The playoff odds are shaved a little because of the preseason prediction “DAVE” mixed in… if we just used in-season 2011 stats they would have a HIGHER chance.
No matter how far they fall back down to earth, they are way ahead of the division, and may even get a 1st round bye. That gives them a pretty good chance to win the superbowl no matter what.
What 30-1 at vegas means is that you should probably bet. I would put them at 12 or 15-1. Maybe wait until after the Lions game… but if they win that I bet their vegas odds shift quite a bit, so you might have to be fast.
Brian Sabean: Sing His Praises To The Heavens!
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game that seems to have resurrected itself in my absence...
Because Las Vegas is not run entirely by geeks.
Masturbation with numbers has its merits (that is how I make living). But it would be stupid to rely solely on it. It omits too much information.
Well, Vegas doesn't set their odds by Football Outsiders.
They generally set their odds based on how much money is being wagered – they want approximately the same amount of money on both sides of the bet, so that they make money either way.
If you believe the football outsiders odds, then betting on the Niners would be a good bet. It’s not a bet you expect to win – you’ll win less than one time in 7 – but because if you do win you get paid off very well. The rare wins make up for the common losses.
If you’re somebody who makes a lot of that kind of bet, you generally jump on a situation like this. In the long run, you come out ahead by relentlessly finding and betting good value opportunities. However, for a single bet, bear in mind that you’re still far more likely to lose than to win – so it’s not something you should do with money you can’t afford to lose.
jeez guys I was making a joke about how little they mean
I get 3 literal responses…
by whistlingmountain on Oct 12, 2011 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions
why pretend to be VD? I don't think he's an Angels fan...
We're as good as we play each week, no better, no worse.
Follow @Tre9er
Posts like this make me wanna pray
Lets not get ahead of ourselves here. We’re a quarter through the season and have some big games coming up. And with the way the Hawks are playing up north, who knows what can happen. Cue Mora rant…
The difference between this year and years past is that I have faith in Harbaugh to keep this team level headed and focused. Attention to detail has been a welcome addition. I love the fact that Jim didn’t let Alex slide for those two passes that could have turned up as interceptions. Tough love.
exactly...slow your roll, baby. Slow your roll
We're as good as we play each week, no better, no worse.
Follow @Tre9er
I'm surprised the early schedule was considered so easy
Considering the record of their opponents so far is
2-3
2-2
3-2
1-4
3-2
The Bengals were a better win than it seemed to be at the time. The Bucs were considered a possible playoff team before the beatdown on Sunday. Philly is the only team with an ugly record that the Niners have beaten so far.
its to early...
to say what our wins mean or don’t mean. The fact is we got Ws. I agree the Bengals look good with Dalton, but we’ll see how they do when its negative 87 degrees and the wind is howling. And who knows, maybe the Lions will have a 09 Boncos-esque meltdown.
records versus performance
FO doesn’t base it strictly on wins/losses. Looks at everything that goes into their performance.
by David Fucillo on Oct 12, 2011 8:35 AM PDT up reply actions
still, it's funny how teams were good, until we beat them...now they aren't good
like, Oh, if SF beat them they mustn’t be any good.
I’ll take it.
We're as good as we play each week, no better, no worse.
Follow @Tre9er
schedule
i love that we have the weakest remaining schedule if i could id schedule the niners to play the dolphins or the rams for the next 11 weeks. no excuses this time i coudnt stomach a let down but i have faith in the coaching staff and players to keep it roliling. the downside is every rams hawks and cards fan will no doubt point to our weak schedule everytime, when talking about the niners success.
The schedule really is very favorable later one
I consider the Giants the better of the two remaining NFC East teams and the Niners get to face them at home. And I think the Skins are beatable too; look past their 3-1 schedule and you’ll see it’s two close wins over the dregs of the NFC West and a win over an injury riddled Giants.
Of the two AFC North powerhouses, I consider Pitts the more beatable of the two, and the Niners get them at home which makes their chances that much better.
Home game against the Browns is very fortuitous, then throw in 4 games against the two lousiest NFC West teams. Really nice schedule down the stretch.
by Gitaroo_Dude on Oct 12, 2011 7:47 AM PDT up reply actions
I feel the logic
I wanna say we win all those games and get the 1 seed, but the reality is, this is the NFL and stuff happens. I do like the giants matchup especialy the way Eli has been playing (inconsistantly). I can’t wait until the Harbaugh battle on Thursday night. Barring injury (knock on wood with a rabbits foot wrapped in four leaf clovers) I think we can really turn some heads.
I posted the same thing yesterday
With 4 of our last 5 games against NFC West opponents, we cannot possibly get good press going into the playoffs, even if we dominate. We have no control over the strength of the opponents, so we just need to keep beating them!
It says a lot about our schedule
that we apparently have a 20% chance at a #1 seed. I currently think a #3 or even a #2 seed is attainable (the game against the Lions might be important in this regard), and that winner of the battle between the Lions and Packers will take the #1 seed (the loser falling to #5 and becoming the scariest team in the playoffs). That said, we really shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves obviously – just look at how it turned out for the Giants (granted, the NL West is a lot tougher than the NFC West).
I'm just a simple Giants fan trying to make my way in the universe.
by Tim Lincecum's Bong on Oct 12, 2011 7:48 AM PDT reply actions
So Jim Harbaugh is going to beat John Harbaugh on Thanksgiving?
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
I predicted this earlier
Jim stole John’s playbook “before” he was hired, he’s the sneaky brother.
they were mined and overmined in the 1800's and likely no longer exist
We're as good as we play each week, no better, no worse.
Follow @Tre9er
why don't we just import them from an African mine?
there’s plenty of gold left to steal from Africa, and it’s already happening every day anyway . . .
Here's a nugget from Barrows
about the 49ers receiving attention and people starting to like us. The Sally Field clip is a hoot. http://blogs.sacbee.com/49ers/archives/2011/10/and-the-oscar-goes-to-the-49ers.html
more a gold flake than a nugget
but thanks!! I read it.
SB odds
Haven’t I read that the NFL’s best team has a less than 50pc chance of making the SB?
13% chance to win the SB is a HUGE number
I had to read that number twice. Never did I ever really consider the niners a SB team, but 13% is not a long shot chance. That’s a legit chance to take a super bowl this year. That’s absolutely crazy! 12.5% would be a coin flip of each round of the playoffs combined, so this is basically saying they have a 50/50 chance in each of those games, less if they had an opening round bye… wait, the niners could have an opening round bye?! That’s absolutely crazy!
AHHH It get’s me so pumped!
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