Davis and Walker vs. Detroit's D

by liberty_JAC on Oct 15, 2011 11:08 PM PDT

The Lions are ranked 25th in the NFL against tight ends according to Football Outsiders. Overall, their pass defense (6th overall) ranks just slightly above the 49ers, but Detroit falls off quite a bit in the tight end category.

Here are the Lions vs. tight ends over their first five games:

TB: Winslow (6 receptions for 66 yards)
KC: Pope (2 receptions for 9 yards)
MIN: Rudolph (3 receptions for 39 yards) and Shiancoe (1 for 8; TD)
DAL: Witten (8 receptions for 94 yards; TD), Bennett (2 for 22), and Phillips (3 for 8)
CHI: Davis (3 receptions for 25 yards; TD) and Spaeth (1 for 8)

According to both Football Outsiders’ DYAR and DVOA rankings, the Lions have yet to face a tight end as good as Vernon Davis, and have only faced one as good as Delanie Walker (which was Witten, who had a great game against them).

Also, according to those same rankings for the quarterback position, the Lions have only faced one quarterback better than Alex Smith (Tony Romo, who successfully managed to get the ball multiple times to three of his tight ends).

Alex Smith has done a great job so far this year of spreading the ball around, and Davis and Walker top that list in terms of touchdowns (5 of 7 have gone to them). Coach Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman have increasingly succeeded at creating successful game plans against the opposing defense. These things, put together with the weakness the Detroit Lions have had thus far in covering tight ends, may create a potential great day for both Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker.

Detroit is also ranked 24th against non-#1-or-#2 receivers, which means if Kyle Williams was going to step up, this Sunday would be a good day to do it. If the Lions over-plan for San Francisco’s tight ends, Williams (or even Crabtree, Ginn) will be next in line for an awesome day.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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I new I forgot to check something this week

thanks for the info man. Hopefully they have a huge game

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by manraj7 on Oct 15, 2011 11:18 PM PDT reply actions

"...the weakness the Detroit Lions have had thus far in covering tight ends..."

Don’t quite follow…

22 catches in 5 games. Shade over 10 yards a catch. 2 TDs.

2 games that equaled 14 catches for 160. So 3 games for 8 catches and 70-something yards…

Not saying Detroit is or isn’t having trouble defending the TE. Just saying that the stats don’t really say that to me. Not enough context w/such a small sample size (5 games). W/out the ol’ Singletary “look at the films”, you can’t really say whether or not the numbers reflect an exploited weakness or a Defense FORCING the QBs to check it down to their TEs.

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by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 16, 2011 12:04 AM PDT reply actions

Agree with this

I just don’t see it in the stats.

by mr. instigator on Oct 16, 2011 12:15 AM PDT up reply actions

Understood.

Same thing goes for the obvious “3rd WR” option. The Lions are doing a decent enough job covering a team’s first and second receivers, that their ranking against the third goes down – it’s not easy to cover every guy one every play of course.

However, Witten in particular, who has been hailed as Romo’s “go-to” guy in certain situations, had a great day against them. Other tight ends who were less a threat on other teams have most definitely slipped under the radar, and that might explain Detroit’s low ranking. Only five games in, it’s certainly hard to tell.

Regardless, the Lions are facing their greatest test thus far in Vernon Davis, and by far their greatest test in the Davis/Walker tandem. If the stats are any indication of weakness, they will have their work cut out for them against these two.

Of course, the Lions may see our tight ends as the biggest threat, and adapt accordingly; which, as I said, should open up things for Williams. And they will still have Crabtree to worry about as well, who has been showing more chemistry with Smith than years prior. I think we have enough talent in our receiving corps to give them problems.

I still stand by my position that the Lions will have to do something they have been less than average through five games: covering tight ends – two good ones at that.

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by liberty_JAC on Oct 16, 2011 12:30 AM PDT up reply actions

(Witten) "...had a great day against them."

Statistically, yes. Did it come because he was the #1 or #2 option on the play, or was he a secondary target? I’d imagine he was targeted quite a bit — it’s Witten — and he is often Romo’s favorite target in critical situations. But I can’t know that based on the STATS, you really would have to watch the film and have an understanding of the route concepts as well.

Regardless indeed! Davis and Walker WILL be quite the test for the Lions. Davis is a FREAK and virtually impossible to matchup with regardless of whether it’s a LB, S, or CB. Walker is a nice complement in the passing game and his speed also makes him a very difficult matchup.

Also agree about the chemistry seeming to develop between Alex and Crabtree.

Thanks for the post and the reply. They’ve gotten me thinking about our TEs and I’ll enjoy watching those matchups tomorrow as they develop.

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by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 16, 2011 12:50 AM PDT up reply actions