Temper Your Expectations: The case against irrational exuberance
by Rishi on Oct 17, 2011 6:32 AM PDT
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Someone's gotta be the Debbie Downer. Sorry, guys, it's me this time.
Like many of you here, I've been a lifelong Niners fan. I've dealt with basically a decade of nothingness from the team. And I'm always looking for signs of improvement.
So I'm happy to see this team at 5-1, with a few solid victories and one blowout victory. But I don't like people talking about playoffs and the Super Bowl just yet.
I want to offer one simple cautionary tale so that we don't get carried away.
The 2007 Detroit Lions. More specifically, they started out the season 6-2. Read the following psasage and imagine if you could see it being written about the Niners:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=271104008
The Lions (6-2) have established themselves as a legitimate contender in the NFC and perhaps the surprise team in the entire league at the midway point of their season. They are one game behind Green Bay (7-1) in the NFC North.
"This is real," defensive tackle Cory Redding said. 'This is a different team. It's not the same-old Lions anymore.'
In the Super Bowl era, 76 percent of the 146 teams that started 6-2 made the playoffs. The Lions haven't won six of their first eight games since 1999, the last season they made the playoffs.
"I hope we keep playing one snap at a time," coach Rod Marinelli said. "The rest of that is too far down the road. I know that's boring. I'm boring.'
Anyone remember what happened to them? They finished the season 1-7, then followed that up by going 0-16 the next season.
That is all. Cheer the Niners, but please don't look ahead and please don't tempt karma by talking about the Super Bowl.
Thank you.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.
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So the reason we won't make the playoffs is because other teams from years ago didn't?
Okay.
Clayton Kershaw, Giant Killer | KeMVP
"By now if u don't believe the Niners are for real ur probably not that good at what u do..." - Donte Whitner
Even then, here’s a smattering of the schedule they faced after starting 6-0: Ravens, Steelers, Chargers, Giants, Colts, Eagles.
Sheesh.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Oct 17, 2011 7:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Just to check the comparison:
The Lions were 6-2 on November 4 that year. At that time, the combined records of their remaining opponents was 41-23 (.640). Furthermore, the combined record of the teams they had faced to that point was 27-38 (.415).
At 5-1 right now, the combined record of the 49ers remaining opponents is 21-31 (.403). Furthermore the combined record of the teams we have faced is 19-15 (.559).
So, schedule-wise, we appear to be facing roughly the opposite problem they did. While their second half schedule was brutal, ours is light. While their first half schedule was a bit of a cake-walk, ours was closer to stacked. We walked through the fire already. In fact, they weren’t even leading their division at the time. The Packers were, and both games between those teams were still forthcoming
Jon Kitna was their QB at the time. For the half-season of their success, here are his relevant rate stats: Comp: 67.2, AY/A: 7.63, TD%: 3.9, INT%: 2.3 (his three year trends at that time: 61.7%, 5.7, 3.6%, 3.8% suggest how primed for regression he was).
Alex Smith’s half season brings these relevant rate stats: 63.3%, 7.3, 5.1%, 1.3% (his three year trends: 60.1%, 6.1, 4.5%, 3.1% bode rather a lot better than Kitna’s – the TD% and INT% numbers are especially telling here).
Kevin Jones was their key guy out of the backfield. I won’t statistically break down the differences between him and Gore. I think it’s clear enough. Shaun McDonald was their leading wide receiver. I don’t even recognize that name, to be honest.
And that’s just on offense.
I get what you’re saying: We should never count our litter before the labor. I think, though, that there is good reason to believe that we’ll see a playoff game this year.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Oct 17, 2011 7:52 AM PDT reply actions 12 recs
your point about the schedule is right on
the 2007 lions, 2008 skins and 2009 broncos had hard opponents in the latter half of the season, and were in much more competative divisions.
and 5 of our last 7 games are against the NFC west
who have a combined record of 3-12.
Well said...
If people are going to draw comparisons to past collapses, at least support the claim. This current Niners team is winning with a traditional/proven approach. Stout D, great special teams, win the turnover battle and control TOP. This team has shown nothing to indicate that a collapse is iminent or even possible. Barring any catostrophic injuries, we will be playing come January.
"That is totally on me, I shook his hand too hard..."
by Brian Hengstler on Oct 17, 2011 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Hmm, I consider myself one of the more reaslitic fans ( oxymoron? ) out there
and, at this point it’s reasonable to expect anything short of a super bowl.
The NFL is littered with poor defenses, the 49ers have a top 5 one that could possible be the best defense in the league by the end of the year depending on injuries, Aldon Smith and Culliver.
They play the easiest schedule in the league from here on out, 2 of the 3 toughest games left are in SF.
It’s reasonable to expect the offense will only get better as the season goes, but will probably not be better than an average offense.
It’s very similar to the Jets team from the last two years. A little overachieving, spotty QB play, good defense/particularly in the red-zone. Except they’re in the NFC west, where it could result in a BYE and divisional round home game.
Going into the season I said that if the 49ers were 5-1 going into the bye they’d be legitimate super bowl contenders, but that thought was based off of the assumption that it means their offense was much further along than possible. Instead the defense has been legitimately top 5, kind of out of the blue. They have 5 guys playing at pro bowl levels ( McDonald, Smith, Bowman, Rogers, Willis ), Goldson and Brooks are playing really well, Aldon and Culliver are surpassing all early expectations. It’s frankly amazing.
Without the offense though it’s hard for me to envision these guys winning 3 in a row against the hottest teams in the league. Just can’t see Alex consistently making the throws needed. Not that I’m upset, it’s wonderful to be in this position. Last year they were 0-5 and I just wanted Singletary fired so badly and to sign Harbaugh and draft Luck. They only did 2 of the 3, but it’s been spectacular anyway.
by whistlingmountain on Oct 17, 2011 8:41 AM PDT reply actions
good assessment
I’m pragmatic as well – our defence grinds down the opposition and ensures we’re allways in it and the offence is a bit more stop start but once we’re in the playoffs anything can happen so yes – we can do it
Swing and a miss...
Appreciate the effort but…
…you should’ve put more effort into it.
I can totally see arguments for NOT GETTING AHEAD OF OURSELVES. I make a lot of them myself. I also think Super Bowl and NFC Title game talk, LTD talk for Alex, etc, I think ALL OF THAT is premature at this point as well.
But you start by saying your going to make a case for why you have the concerns, and then you just say: Detroit was 6-2 and then went blahblah then 0-16. No context, no parallels drawn (other than citing the fast start like we’ve had), no reasons why the situations/teams are similar, etc.
Not saying the premise is wrong — I agree w/it — but you really don’t make much of case to support your point.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 17, 2011 8:58 AM PDT reply actions
The case for the Niners
5-1 with 5, count ‘em, 5 divisional games left. This team hasn’t been beating non-conference opponents in a long time, and when is the last time they won three straight on the east coast?
Who in that division has it better than the Niners? NOOOO BODY!
by Andrew Davidson on Oct 17, 2011 9:03 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
So are you telling me I should cancel my tickets to the SB this year
"Hi my name is Cliff Harris and I am here to lock [site decorum] down" - Cliff Harris introduction at his Freshman Orientation
Reporter : "What do you remember about the BCS title game"
Cliff Harris: "That we lost"
"Stopping the run doesn't come because of scheme. It come because of want to." - Donte Whitner
Follow @manraj76
When Jim Harbaugh says "more is more" I think he is trying to say Moore is more.
Nice to see you on here Rishi
I remember you being one of the few fans that was skeptical of the Harbaugh hire due to the College-Coach-Coming-to-the-NFL (like Saban, Petrino, etc.) connection.
There are a lot of reasons why the Niners could suddenly go in the tank. Alex Smith has played average at the QB position, and the Niners’ crazy good turnover ratio may be unsustainable. There remain lots of question marks about the offensive line and the secondary. And they do still have to play the Steelers, Giants and Ravens.
However, the Niners are playing better, and it doesn’t just seem like it’s Harbaugh’s college coach rah-rah schtick that’s making the Niners successful; the changes in coaching, scheme, and technique are what have made the difference to me so far this season. The Niners overcame significant penalties in the Lions game on the road to beat a talented and well-coached team. So you can’t really argue that the Niners haven’t beaten anybody yet, because the Bengals are 4-2, the Eagles are on the rise, and Tampa Bay just beat the Saints.
I hope 2011 is Harbaugh-some!
Twitter me at twitter.com/grantmp1
If I'm honest, I think it's hard to claim the Niners won't make the playoffs this year.
The greater danger is that the Niners will go 13-3 this year and get bounced in their first playoff game, and then not make the playoffs next year.
I hope 2011 is Harbaugh-some!
Twitter me at twitter.com/grantmp1
Not arguing SUPER BOWL or anything crazy like that...
…but this team is good enough that you can tell from SIMPLY watching them play.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 17, 2011 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions
that's a possibility for any team
Saints lost to the Seahawks last year
Patriots lost to the bucs..
Eagles lost to the Packers..
I don’t know that it’s a danger, it’s just the nature of the NFL playoffs. Get there if you can, getting a bye helps ( but ultimately doesn’t really matter, it’s more about hitting on all cylinders when the playoffs arrive ), home field is nice if you have a specific home field advantage like noise or weather. Oddly, the Packers will have home field this year, but they have a weak run game and a pass happy offense. Lions getting home field would be a legitimate advantage.
by whistlingmountain on Oct 17, 2011 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions
Patriots lost to the Jets*
don’t know why I typed Bucs
by whistlingmountain on Oct 17, 2011 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions
It feels like a comment that comes from the sort of “I’d rather [something not flashy with good results] happens than [something flashy with bad results]” fallacy. There’s no causal reason that if the 49ers go 13-3 this year that either of those other two things would happen. But the brain does like to make that connection.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Oct 17, 2011 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions
I think much of the fear is related to the Seahawks "overachieving" ( at 7-9 ) last year
and the general idea that the 49ers are overachieving. Meaning their success this year would harm their future by lowering their draft picks, so if they do not win in the playoffs it’s “all for not”.
To me though, so long as they are able to keep these guys together, I think they are legitimately a top 10 team. Not luck, not overachieving, not because they’re in the NFC West.
Being a top 10 team doesn’t guarantee making the playoffs, let alone playoff success, but it does mean that it is the first and foremost goal of the season.
I really think they’re just 1 QB who can make plays away from being in a good place for a while. Nearly all of their key players are young. Haraugh is young, Fangio and Roman aren’t going to be head coaches anytime soon. Their position coaches seem to be position coach personalities.
Honestly, being a realistic fan, this situation right now is really surprising. I’d feel a little better about it if I thought that Rogers was a for sure re-sign. He’s basically a pro bowl corner right now in a contract year =/
I just don’t know how they’re going to find a QB now.
by whistlingmountain on Oct 17, 2011 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions
The reason I worry that they'll miss the playoffs this year is because...
Frederick P. Soft could visit after a playoff trip, and because there are a lot of guys with expiring contracts on this team.
I worry that next year, the Niners could be like the Falcons this year. Though the jury is out on who both the Falcons and Niners are this year.
I hope 2011 is Harbaugh-some!
Twitter me at twitter.com/grantmp1
I don't see why their turnover ratio would not be sustainable
they were basically 50/50 on fumble recovers and they pass way less than other teams, particularly deep balls. Bucs dropped 3 interceptions, but all after the game was already decided.
On top of it all, the 49ers aren’t overly reliant on any one player, so even when guys go down, it’s not like they face some massive drop off as a unit.
I’d say their chances of going in the tank are fairly low. If they lost a bunch it would be a series of extremely close games, the same as they have won 4 extremely close games already this year.
Side note, what would you give for a legitimate NFL quarterback right now. I mostly know Giant fans, and they keep whining about Eli. God I’d take Eli in a damn heart beat. I’d trade the entire 2012 draft + Kaepernick + 2013 first for Luck. If the 49ers can re-sign their free agents they’re really an offensive tackle and a QB away from being just as good as anyone in the league on a weekly basis.
by whistlingmountain on Oct 17, 2011 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions
Looking at the remaining schedule
It’s hard to see the 49ers finishing worse than 5-5.
They’re better than any of the other teams in the division, and should go 5-0, but probably won’t. Football is a volatile game; 4-1 is the most likely outcome, even 3-2 is plausible. Doesn’t feel like it after the last 2 games, but could happen.
Outside the division, the Niners should beat the Browns, Redskins, and Giants, but could easily lose 1 of the 3 games. They should take one from either the Ravens or Steelers, but could easily lose both. 3-2 in division and 2-3 out gets us to 10-6 and a near-certain playoff spot. They wouldn’t look like world beaters or SB contenders, but they’d be a legitimate playoff team, something they haven’t been in a decade.
What the Niners have done in the first 6 games has been amazing. I hope they continue to play this way, but even if they regress somewhat, they still make the playoffs as long as they play non-disastrously. As a fan, that feels really good.
I feel like 3-2 in the division right now, regardless of other results, wins the division.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Oct 17, 2011 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions
The Detroit game officially moved me into "failing to make the playoffs will represent a monumental collapse" mode.
Up until that game, I felt like there was a chance we were just getting flukey and lucky. Now I don’t.
Even if Seattle comes on strong, it’s hard to see them catching us.
What I’m being cautious about is what it all means. The NFC, except for Green Bay, looks pretty weak.
One of the stat sites ran the season 10,000 times, generically (eg – not with specific teams and specific players, but rather, with a specific “best team” “worst team” etc). They found that the worst team in the league won the SB once in those 10,000 tries, and that the best team won well less than half the time. (I think it was about 1/4 of the time, but I can’t remember).
So if we can get to the playoffs, absolutely anything can happen. At home we could legitimately be favorites against most plausible opponents (although maybe not against New Orleans). We’d be a big underdog against Green Bay, but bigger upsets have happened.
Ultimately, though, I just want to enjoy the ride. The team appears likely to vastly exceed my expectations for the season no matter how it ends.
by Ronaldinho on Oct 17, 2011 10:40 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
these are really the best seasons to be a fan
full of potential, with little expectation.
by whistlingmountain on Oct 17, 2011 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions
flagged for being absolutely right (and because I don't know how to unflag something)
I hope 2011 is Harbaugh-some!
Twitter me at twitter.com/grantmp1
by grantmp on Oct 17, 2011 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
rec's turn into flags for some reason on the menu bar
i was like “what?? I ’ve been flagging all these cool comments”
Barring injuries
Our offense will continue to improve this year.
Our defense will continue to improve this year.
Coaching will continue to improve this year.
But I’m still not even fantasizing about the SB right now. I’m just thinking get healthy, practice hard, open up the offense, and beat Cleveland.
Meanwhile either SEA or CLE loses next week.
AZ plays PIT.
STL plays DAL.
Looks good for us while we recoup, refocus and reinvigorate for a Home game in 2 weeks.
Go Niners!
Justin Smith is something else. 100% Effort! 100% Class!
"I was just running toward the ball," Smith said. "The guys in front of him were making him slow up a little bit. I just went for the ball and, luckily, it was there."
Irrational Exuberance?
How the hell does one exceptional example prove anything? This post should be titled “Irrational Pessimism.”
by Bigmouth on Oct 17, 2011 10:55 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
IMHO, I really don't see where this post is coming from (no offense)...
I don’t see anything wrong with fans displaying this so called “irrational exuberance”. After all, all (if not most) of us will live and die with the NIners. And after weathering all of these years of mediocre football in SF, including the disaster of a season last year, I think you really can’t blame Niner fans to be extra happy these days.
The players on the other hand, while whooping it up after the game after a hard earned win (which IMO they are more than entitled to do), are showing that all this success hasn’t gone to their heads. I mean you always hear the players saying stressing that “they havent won anything yet” or C. Rogers always going back to his days with the ’Skins when they started 6 – 1 (?).
by NinerFanTucson on Oct 17, 2011 11:32 AM PDT reply actions
Number 2!
Peter King has us number 2 this week in his “Fine Fifteen.” That has to account for something.
I generally like to temper my expectations, and it seems like most people are going a little overboard about the niners. That’s because they should. We as fans have gone through a decade of irrelevance we can cheer and be happy about that, it’s a good thing. We are at the point where we should expect to win every week, not hope. Our team IS good.
I haven't read Peter King in years...
Has he stopped talking non-stop about Brett Favre? And if so, who does he NOW always talk about?
I'm thinking but nothing's happening.
Peter King was once described as...
[Note — turn away if you have a problem w/“gross”]
…described as “wading in a pool of Brett Favre’s ejaculate.”
Made me laugh hard when I first read it. Can’t remember where I saw it, can’t remember who wrote it, but I thought it was extremely accurate and very funny.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 17, 2011 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions
Oddly enough
That was Peter King’s own description of his summer vacation.
by Ougadas on Oct 18, 2011 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
lmfao!
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 18, 2011 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Raiders
I think he actually mentioned Favre as a possible QB for the Raiders to look at… but I think he said it sarcastically.
I think this team has the NFC West won
I know I’m getting ahead of myself but look at the competition:
- Rams are dead in the water (WTF happened with them!?)
- Arizona is equally bad (I thought Kolb was supposed to be better…)
- Seahawks are 2-3 but they’re barely winning. And Tavaris Jackson.
In other words, Go Bears!
What happened with the Rams
Is they went from an easy schedule to a rough one.
Their “no name” defense that carried them last year is regressing to the mean.
Teams figured out that Bradford is Captain Dink and Dunk.
The Seahawks are a team with some fight in them — and I really wish we had taken Baldwin in the 6th instead of Johnson. I think they stand the best chance of getting a division win against us, especially since we have to go into the NoiseDome.
What he said...^^^
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 18, 2011 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions
(I like Bradford a lot though -- not first overall pick "like" -- but not much around him)
Similar to Alex actually… Reverse their 1st and 2nd years and you’ve got Bradford in 2011 thus far…
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 18, 2011 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions
the defense has been pretty good for a few years now. with the new db coach the secondary seems to be improving significantly.
Harbaugh knows how to run the ball and he knows the little things that need to be done in the run game. further rams look like total garbage this year, kolb is not looking hot, and seaducks are having qb issues again. cards and rams reaching five wins might not even be possible.
"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin
Tempering expectations
The reason for this post has some merit. You could very well play a devil’s advocate role in this, but using the 2007 Lions as the basis for the argument is fairly disingenuous to what the 49ers have put out there this season.
As howtheyscored pointed out above, the situations really aren’t similar at all. There is a simple reason we won’t collapse (and it doesn’t involve the NFC West)…The defense alone will prevent that from happening.
How 'bout we just keep laughin at Jim Schwartz, enjoy the bye, and...
…then kick Cleveland’s a$$?
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 17, 2011 2:46 PM PDT reply actions
"Tread lightly Cleric, for tread upon my dreams".
Quote from the movie “Equilibrium”.
K.C.Edwards -AKA- "THE" DarkkStarr
Does that, uh, mean "yes"...
…in regard to kicking Cleveland’s ass?
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 17, 2011 7:20 PM PDT up reply actions
Optimism
How about restrained or cautious optimism, rather than irrational exuberance?
I’ve been around some football coaches and bye and large have not been impressed. I think it is quite possible that Harbaugh is head and shoulders above the crowd. It is typical for coaches, even at the NFL level, to loudly punish players for mistakes. Harbaugh understands that players don’t need motivation – or fear – what they need is assistance, understanding and guidance.
I also think that players will realize that they have a better chance to perform well under Harbaugh and his system, and the kind of loyalty he is creating will cause players to want to come here.
by hoosgow on Oct 17, 2011 8:14 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
So +1... Exactly.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 17, 2011 9:43 PM PDT up reply actions
Win the division = Home field advantage
…Right?
One way or another, it seems easy to brush off the majority of the remaining schedule (with the exception of NY, Balt., Pitt) but this team doesn’t project that kind of potential to implode.. Not that they’re incapable of falling apart, just unlikely considering the tempo in that locker room.
Next up: Cleveland. They look pretty sad on offense but look no further than the other side of the ball for a glimmer of optimism. While some what stout against the pass (192.0 yds per game, ranked 4th in the league), we ‘re playing them at home and they’re bringing their 27th ranked run-defense with them. Granted, I’m taking these basic numbers at face value and offering no in-depth analysis—but still, 6 weeks into the season is a good baseline for evaluating where a team is at…
Week 9: @Washington. The questions at QB are obvious with “Sexy Rexy” throwing 4 INTs and looking like he just ate a small child. Couple that with the fact that, No, they’re not going to be able to run the ball against us and it’s easy to be overconfident in this one. The thing that freaks me out is that their defense (3rd, 6th, 9th and 11 in Points, Yds, Pass yds, Rush yds respectively) plays a really physical and opportunistic style. You need to be able to score points to win games and the only way I can see that happening is if we turn the ball over and give them scoring opportunities.
So much can change over the next few weeks so I wouldn’t want to speculate beyond that.
Other than stating the obvious:
The NYG are 4-2 and a good football team but at least we play them at home (2002 playoffs anyone?). ARI is sitting at 1-4 and it doesn’t look like they enjoy playing football… and we play them at home.
BAL is 4-1, coached by the other Harbaugh and has a nasty, nasty defense in all phases of the game. More salt? We play them in Maryland.
STL is off to a screaming 0-5 start and will probably be looking to sign Hank Williams Jr to play LT, RT or both at the same time as they clearly have issues on their LO-Line.
A repeat of ARI in Arizona followed by a rejuvinated 4-2 Pittsburg team who looks to add some momentum to their raping and pillaging of the AFC. Apparently, Troy P still can’t seem to stay healthy (yes it’s early but c’mon, no one can play that hard, that often and not end up like this guy.)
I don’t like the idea of closing out the season on the road again two divisional opponents no matter what their current records reflect but it is what it is until it isn’t… It’s not our fault that Kurt Warner left the Cards and Rams and now they both suck. It’s not our fault that the 2-3 Seahawks have the wackest coach in all of football and no direction and or talent… It’s not. But I still don’t like the idea of two road games to close out a season…
@SEA, @STL)
Yes.
Division winners have home field over wildcards.
However, if you’re one of the top two seeds, you get a bye and home field in the second round.
expectations and waiting for titles
niner fan since 1951 waited 30 years for first title. loved the teams though, most inovative team in football and lots of great players. have fun and hope they keep improving on offense so that by playoff time we are a good offense. keep the faith , i did predict a 11-5 record this year because all but two teams we play gave up more scoring opportunities than our defense . harbaugh is a great teacher along with his coaches and their draft was beautiful, it looked like a college freshman class not a superstar draft.
love and luck to all the niner fans and players !
Playoff talk and more is fun, but...
…I’m still gettin’ drunk when we win our 8th game.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 17, 2011 9:46 PM PDT reply actions
stockup
only three more games get ready for the hangover
hope detroit can stay good long enough to beat the pack
what happens if top two division winners end up tied at 15-1
...someone started tilting a few back early...
;D
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 17, 2011 10:27 PM PDT up reply actions
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