(Kinda) Mid-Season Review: The Alex Smith Factor
by WesHanson on Oct 22, 2011 12:00 PM PDT
in San Francisco 49ers News
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Sometimes, as a Football fan, I am envious of Baseball statistics. I love Baseball for a lot of reasons, and one of them are the evaluative and predictive nature of Baseball stats. One can (and should, Sabean) look at certain stats and glean information about how a player will hit and produce, generally. So in Baseball, more or less, just look at the stats.
Football, not so much. I mean, there are good stats in Football - and I really think they will only get better. Instead of a team of highly trained monkeys under the purview of James "Buy-that-Degree" Franco, really smart people are doing really smart things to develop advanced statistics for Football. ESPN's new QBR is an example of kind of smart people trying to exemplify this trend; though I may quibble a bit with the finished product, at least Football is becoming more and more open to statistical analysis.
But for right now, it's hard to just look at the stats. But, before the jump, let's take a look at Alex Smith's:
- 100 Completions in 158 Attempts, which is good for a 63.3 Completion Percentage.
- He's thrown for 1,090 yards, going 6.9 yards a pop.
- 8 TDs to 2 INTs with 3 Fumbles.
- All this comes to a 95.2 Rating.
So what do the stats suggest about Alex? What should we think about his performance so far and what does that mean for going forward? If you are Trent Baalke, there's no way you aren't thinking about next year's options at QB with an obsessive compulsion that would put Adrian Monk to shame.
Much has been discussed about Alex this year. Is he a game manager? An elite QB (though only Kurt Warner is really thinking this)? Can he lead the team to a Super Bowl? Is he just playing in the system?
I'm not exactly prepared to give you answers to this. I could give my opinion, but really my opinion stems from the fact that these types of questions are even being asked. Look at the overall premise that coagulates behind these questions like a nice answered-filled jam and I think you get a good idea of what Alex has done thus far.
Alex has executed. Alex has done what the system and coaching staff ask him to do in order to win. Some, who count wins as the greatest stat in evaluating a QB (not me, for the record), look at this and assert that he is becoming a very good QB - if not elite.
Frankly, if anything is elite in this scenario, I think it is the coaching staff. They took a QB, who could not function under more inept coaches, and put him in a situation in which he can be successful. The team too. Elite or not; game manager or not; leader or not, I think all these methods of evaluation are somewhat flawed. What defines Alex so far this year more than his play is the system under which he is operating.
Thus, I would argue, in reviewing Alex at this point in the season is to evaluate the ways in which he is being used, not the way he plays. The stats say he is playing well. My eyes say he is playing well. Heck, I was talking to my grandmother on the phone the other night, and she even thinks he is playing well, but so what. So what? The fact is, I think Alex remains an enigma. I'm not even sure if a full season of play could really clear up my thinking.
Earlier this season, I indicated that Alex should be a one and done deal. One year and he is done. Get him in here until Alex can metaphorically hand the ball off to Colin Kaepernick. Because Jim Harbaugh is a genius, Colin will be ready in one year. That was my dream scenario. I never realized that Harbaugh was such a genius that he could turn Alex's career around. I didn't know that anybody could do that - not in San Francisco, at least.
So evaluating Alex this early is really just evaluating the coaching staff. But, he is doing so well, that he may be changing my mind on the one and done deal. He may. I'm not sure yet, so I won't vote in the poll below (but you should!), but good golly miss molly, if he continues to play this well through the season, I might have to think about wanting him back...
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I’m fascinated by this subject. Good article and a good conversational topic.
One of the most remarkable by-products of a 5-1 start and a successful Alex Smith is that the words “Colin” and “Kaepernick” have barely been seen on Niners Nation. Usually, we love a back-up quarterback don’t we? Heck, we’ve had long-running conversations on this site about third-string quarterbacks. We have fallen hopelessly in love with practice squad quarterbacks, with UDFA quarterbacks, and with gardeners and odd-job men who did some work around the training facility and tossed some garbage into a can in such a way that hinted they might once have played quarterback in high school.
But not now. Not this season. Kaep has been conspicuous by his absence from our threads. This can only be a good thing. I’d love to imagine the coaches have been working tirelessly with him to progress his ability so that he can one day take over from Alex, but I’d love to imagine that that happens gradually, as it did with Joe and Steve (not that Alex is Joe and not that Colin is Steve – my comparison there is merely to the timescales of the handover).
Alex stays under center for two-to-three more years then we unleash the Kaep. That would be my hope anyway.
Agree all the way
Give Kaep 2-3 years, then unleash him. I like it.
"The Harbaughcolypse is upon us. No one in the NFL is safe"
I should add ...
… that I’m aware of a slight contradiction in my post. I suggested a handover from Alex to Colin of two-to-three years and also said there should be a handover like Joe to Steve. I’m aware that Steve took longer than two-to-three years after joining the club to become starter. My point was that Joe-to-Steve was a GRADUAL handover.
It wasn’t like Joe played all the snaps in all the games in all the seasons and then Steve suddenly had a ribbon-cutting movement. We saw plenty of Steve, then more and more, then Joe got injured, then Steve was the starter, then there was a quarterback controversy, then Joe went off to the Chiefs and Steve was the guy and the monkey eventually fell from his back.
Hopefully by the time Kaep is the guy, we all know he can do it. And if he ends up not being the guy, then Alex can be there for long enough to get that all figured out without it ever hurting the team.
I’m going to shut up now. I have already talked way too much in this thread.
by LondonNiner on Oct 22, 2011 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions
At some point Kaepernick is likely to simply outshine Alex
Steve never did outshine Joe, he just waited long enough. I doubt anyone is going to wait until the twilight of Alex’s career to see what Colin can do. That is unless Alex suddenly becomes some sort of touchdown manufacturing machine.
What Rookie Linebacker Is Second Of All Linebackers In Sacks With 5.5, A Forced Fumble, And A Safety - All On Limited Playing Time?
I agree
And that scenario feels like the perfect one for the 49ers.
by LondonNiner on Oct 22, 2011 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions
"Steve never did outshine Joe"
never has a truer word been spoken on NN.
At one point last season (maybe after the Eagles game) I posted to say that I’d seen enough of Alex and it was time for him to go…but…I have to say he has been excellent this season (and in pre-season). He’s always been a nice guy so for that reason he’s always been easy to root for but he’s moved beyond that this season.
Three 4th quarter comebacks on the road deserve a lot of back-slapping. He has been very very good for us through the first 6 weeks. I hope he keeps it going and that CK (and Josh Johnston) sit behind him for a couple of seasons.
by Glasgow_49er on Oct 22, 2011 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree completely, LN...
Going beyond the Joe to Steve transition, what about Brett to Aaron? Aaron Rodgers sat for what I seem to remember was three full seasons before taking over…
Tom Brady was 1 for 3 passing as a rookie, didn’t start the 1st 2 games of his 2nd year. Took over during the 2nd game and started ever since due to an injury to the starter (Wally Pipp, anyone?)
Kurt Warner was 4 of 11 passing during is 1st season (1998) with the Rams. Warner became the starter for the entire 1999 season when presumed starter Trent Green tore his ACL in preseason (yet another Wally Pipp story)
I am NOT wishing any type of misfortune upon Alex… quite the contrary, I’m a strong supporter of the Favre to Rodgers type transition….
And one last comment (at least for now, LOL). Many of you are very quick to anoint Colin Kaepernick as the heir apparent. Don’t be so quick to rule out Scott Tolzien… during his senior season at Wisconsin, he reminded me quite favorably of another former Big 10 QB, one who matriculated at Michigan, by the name of Tom Brady… let’s see how the guy develops…
After all was said and done, a lot more got said than done.
Harbaugh wanted Tolzien, he grabbed him as soon as he could and I think he is very happy with CK and Tolzien behind Smith
What we don’t see is what Harbaugh and the coaches are doing with these two. I imagine they are getting a lot of coaching.. and CK and Tolzien could be our Joe and Steve of the 2010’s.
For now. .I am happy with the way Alex Smith is playing.. but I am also comfortable, if something happens for CK to step up. Harbaugh is no man’s fool.. and is totally prepared and had the entire team prepared.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
a lot of coaching?
I don’t think so. In-season the staff is totally focused on game preparation for that week. Colin and Scott probably each have a short list of areas for improvement (some physical, some mental), but the real coaching will take place after the Super Bowl and before the first regular season game of 2012.
"(I)f you think you've got an inside track to absolute truth, you become doctrinaire, humorless and intellectually constipated." Saul Alinsky
+1
It’s ALL about GAME DAY, prepping for the CURRENT WEEK, etc.
Second priority is getting a jump on preparation for UPCOMING OPPONENTS.
If you think Kaep gets a lot of attention, you’re just wrong. Period. Tolzien get less. They have to DISCIPLINE THEMSELVES to get everything they can from each “mental rep” they take, from listening to the prep that primarily focuses on Alex, etc.
As a backup, it’s YOUR JOB as much or more than the Coaches to be ready and prepared if and when your number is called.
This ISN’T opinion. It’s the way it is.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions
(how it is DURING THE SEASON; off-season is totally different)
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions
You were close
Due to injury, Steve took over for Joe in 3 and one-half years. And played a bunch (for a backup) in that time, both due to injury and because Coach Walsh wanted to get him playing time.
- Thank you SF Giants for an incredible 2010 season and painting the City orange & black!
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
...yeah, because he was "Steve Young".
He had “special ability” for a QB (his ability to RUN).
Kaep may get similar looks because of HIS ABILITY TO RUN.
Tolzien can be completely ruled out as a future anything unless both Smith and CK get hurt at some point, and he comes in and plays VERY WELL (ala Steve Bono or to a lesser degree, Shaun Hill).
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions
The 49ers were a dominant team for much of Young's pre-starter tenure.
And so the team was able to give him reps in a lot of games to help him learn theNFL speed.
More importantly, Montana suffered from a couple of injuries over that time, giving Young not only practice time with the first team, but game time that mattered.
It’s not like the team did much of “let’s sub him in for a play so we can use his legs” – that was pretty rare. But Young got a lot of mop-up duty, and he got some starts because of injury.
Realy???
Let me tell you something; unless Kapernick fixes he throwing motion he’s never going to be the man. His a good fill in and that’s about it.
by ESSJPeteDawg on Oct 22, 2011 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions
If that’s true, then he was a heck of an expensive fill-in given he was taken in the second round and we traded up for him. Not saying you’re wrong – I am a long way from being any sort of expert in the mechanics of the game like throwing motion – but the current management seem to have a good record in evaluating draft talent so it would be out of character, would it not, for them to trade up in the second round for a QB who is nothing more than a good fill-in?
by LondonNiner on Oct 22, 2011 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions
It doesn't matter how you throw,
what matters is how fast you get it there and how accurately. I mean honestly what’s the big deal about how “pretty” a throw looks? Rick Barry is a prime example how ugly can work. He’s one of the most accurate free throw shooters of all time and he shoots it under hand grandma style. It’s more important that you master your own technique, than trying to emulate a picture from a book or what people say looks pretty.
Affectionately,
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar,
NBA’s All-Time Leading Scorer
by afrikabamboodle on Oct 22, 2011 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions
there aren't free passes in football
and rick barry can’t shoot like that with anyone guarding him
the point with kaep isn’t the aesthetic, it’s how long his wind up takes. eventually DC’s all over the nfl will get their hands on tape of him winding his arm to a standstill and holding the ball out for what seems like an eternity before passing.
not that it can’t be fixed necessarily, it just has to be fixed before a linebacker rips his arm off.
"Winners, I am convinced, imagine their dreams first. They want it with all their heart and expect it to come true. There is, I believe, no other way to live."
- Joe Montana
by brooklyn49er on Oct 22, 2011 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions
My point is simply,
wind up or not, if he can get it out quick, he’ll be fine. People look at the wind up and say “Ohh wow that is so ugly and slow, he needs to fix that windup if he’s going to be successful.” My point is simply while yes, the wind up does not look like a traditional throwing motion, he’ll be fine if he can get it out quickly and accurately. If removing his wind up messed up his accuracy and timing, then work on speeding the wind up up. He’s not doomed just because he has a different throwing motion as most people like to point out.
Affectionately,
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar,
NBA’s All-Time Leading Scorer
by afrikabamboodle on Oct 22, 2011 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions
don't totally agree
i do agree of course that a quick release is extremely important, yes. but….kaep definitely does not have a quick release. slowwwww.
also, there are a lot of unorthodox qb deliveries out there, but all of the successful ones are compact. or at least most. i mean, they don’t require an extra 2 sq ft of room in the pocket to throw.
like i said, maybe i’m wrong on kaep. i’m only a fan. but for now, i’m believing my eyes on this one…
"Winners, I am convinced, imagine their dreams first. They want it with all their heart and expect it to come true. There is, I believe, no other way to live."
- Joe Montana
by brooklyn49er on Nov 10, 2011 1:09 AM PST up reply actions
I think this is exactly right
It’s not about aesthetics it’s about the speed of DBs in the NFL vs college. He telegraphs his throws. Even good (as opposed to great) NFL DBs can see it and close on the ball. He was perfectly suited to the pistol offense Nevada runs, which favors a running/throwing QB. It’s basically a run/pass option every play, and a QB who provides both threats can excel in it. The WCO favors a QB who is accurate and has a quick release. As others have said, Harbaugh and Chryst can certainly coach him up, and I think he could be the QBOTF – but I don’t get those who are already proclaiming his to be the guy. He MIGHT be the guy – but I think Tolzien has his own assets, and I wouldn’t count him, or some QBTBD, out of the conversation.
In my opinion, the best thing that could happen to the ‘niners is that Alex continues to grow into the QB we need – a guy who can manage the game expertly when the run game is clicking, but who can also win the game with his arm when it’s not. If he can become that guy – and I think we saw flashes of it in the 2nd half at Philly, and on that last pass in Detroit – Harbaugh and his staff could literally have three more years to figure out who the true QBOTF is.
Phillip Rivers...
side arm throw, ugly, strange and unorthodox, ELITE QB
by Frisco_Kid on Oct 22, 2011 3:17 PM PDT via iPhone app up reply actions
Right about the throwing motion; wrong about the debut...
It was what… 88-3 when he came in the game? That was the NFL’s equivalent of “garbage time”. Tells nothing.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions
Oh... It's about STATS is it?
I’m going to go throw up now…
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 10:02 PM PDT up reply actions
Agreed, but may I ask
Do you have any inclination as to whether its Colin or perhaps Tolzien getting more reps and/or absorbing this offense better? The depth chart is what it is, but Coach didn’t pick up this guy either without some thought first, right? So any thought about us drafting a QB next year is absurd to me! Your thoughts, Dr? Lol!
Enough said above! I can't believe the "t-raiders" are going to play in OUR stadium! Bastards!
by 23mjheart on Oct 22, 2011 4:54 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Except ESPN QBR is retarded
Just sayin’.
Alex Smith Will Win a Superbowl
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Alex-Smith-Will-Win-a-Superbowl/205058042848290
As for the more subject at-hand...
… I am an Alex Smith fan/supporter/etc., so I hope he plays well this year and we sign him to an extension for a couple more.
Let Kaepernick develop on the side-lines for a couple years. We have a Superbowl in us one day very soon, and I think Alex can take us there.
Alex Smith Will Win a Superbowl
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Alex-Smith-Will-Win-a-Superbowl/205058042848290
You got the right idea...
I like what Harbaugh has done with Alex Smith so far. Imagine a full year with the two working together; who knows what they’ll achieve.
by ESSJPeteDawg on Oct 22, 2011 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions
I think that Kaep needs more time
Let’s resign Smith. He keeps coming back anyways. Wouldn’t it be sort of weird/fitting if Smith was a Niner for his entire career?
If you're watching a blowout, you can pass the time by counting the double teapots.
Samurai Champloo > Macross
you're right
might as well have him sign a 10 year contract now and save ourselves the money and hassle.
Extend the Man , and do it NOW ...!!
I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ...Jimmy Raye your no daisy ...!!
In this division means nothing.
Alex is a liability in the pocket. He avoids the rush and can’t stay composed. He has Mike Martz disease.
Leggoooo!!!
not lately...
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions
http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2011101604/2011/REG6/49ers@lions#menu=highlights&tab=recap
Leggoooo!!!
He's not going to be PERFECT... What exactly is your point?
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 10:03 PM PDT up reply actions
The second reply to Edggy was meant for a different post. However, when I say Martzsyndrome, I'm talking happy feet.
Battered Qb disease if you will. He has 0 poise in the pocket. Has he been hit too many times in his career to recover from martzdisease? see David Carr
Leggoooo!!!
So...
…it take no POISE to drill a 4th down strike for a GAME-WINNING TD on the road against an undefeated team w/a decent front 7?
Oh yeah… He DRILLED that GW TD pass from…the POCKET.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 11:10 PM PDT up reply actions
It feels like you haven't been watching the games this year when you say that.
Or maybe you’re just suffering from confirmation bias, which happens to all of us.
http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2011101604/2011/REG6/49ers@lions#menu=highlights&tab=recap
Leggoooo!!!
He showed he could come through in the clutch during an "off game"
And that was something he HASN’T DONE in the past.
He needs to play a “clean game” against the Browns and play more consistently than he did against the Lions most of the time.
Totally agree w/you on that.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 10:06 PM PDT up reply actions
You typed "mroe"...
That shows that your BODY (fingers specifically) was rebelling against the bullsh*t you were forcing it to type…
Executed poorly… Walker was more clutch, etc, etc…. C’mon… ( ;D )
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 11:13 PM PDT up reply actions
fumbles
why do fumbles not count , 8 td 5 turnovers. unless he keeps improving kaep will replace him when harbaugh thinks its time. estimate would be 11th game after we are 8-2.
hope we keep lucking out until kaep is ready, alex is not future . however harbaugh has done a miracle so far.
dont be ridiculous
Harbaugh is alot smarter than to shake up an 8-2 team by benching the starter for a rookie.
Let’s be realistic here.
by ManBearPig21 on Oct 22, 2011 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions
really?
The best quarterback in the division by a landslide to an unproven rookie with no off-season on a line that is inconsistent just because he can throw far to guys that do not possess elite speed. AleX is dangerous with his feet as well and can throw the deep ball well enough.
Being the best QB in the NFC West
is like saying that I’m the tallest in a room full of midgets.
"Hi my name is Cliff Harris and I am here to lock [site decorum] down" - Cliff Harris introduction at his Freshman Orientation
Reporter : "What do you remember about the BCS title game"
Cliff Harris: "That we lost"
"Stopping the run doesn't come because of scheme. It come because of want to." - Donte Whitner
Follow @manraj76
When Jim Harbaugh says "more is more" I think he is trying to say Moore is more.
Best NFC west qb is Sam Bradford
Put Sam Bradford in instead of Alex Smith and we would have an elite and potent offense right now. I’m still happy with Alex though. Never doubted him at all
by MarineVet49erFan on Oct 22, 2011 11:31 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Not even close
Bradford is so crazy overrated it isn’t funny. He was only more efficient than one passer in the NFL last year, and that was Jimmy Clausen.
He’s not even the third best QB in the NFC West at the moment.
The way he did stand out in 2010? He came pretty damn close to leading the league in attempts, performed below mediocre on a per attempt basis, and got credit for the teams regression to the mean against the 2nd easiest schedule in the league.
hey man dinking and dunking takes skill
"Hi my name is Cliff Harris and I am here to lock [site decorum] down" - Cliff Harris introduction at his Freshman Orientation
Reporter : "What do you remember about the BCS title game"
Cliff Harris: "That we lost"
"Stopping the run doesn't come because of scheme. It come because of want to." - Donte Whitner
Follow @manraj76
When Jim Harbaugh says "more is more" I think he is trying to say Moore is more.
Fumbles not his fault.
The guy has taken more quick sacks then most people in the league (i.e., sacks that are within a certain time window that it would be a mistake to blame them on the quarterback).
Did you see how many sacks he’s taken that could have (should have!) been fumbles, but Alex miraculously hung on? We’re lucky he only has two given up so far.
At the very least, there’s no way you can blame that Vanden Bosch take-away on Alex. He got a huge jump, looked to be offsides, and blind-sided Smith like one second after the snap.
Be reasonable, here.
Alex Smith Will Win a Superbowl
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Alex-Smith-Will-Win-a-Superbowl/205058042848290
by liberty_JAC on Oct 22, 2011 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions
FUmbles are somewhat the QBs responsibility
Not picking on Alex, but the fumbles in Philly he saw the rusher coming and fumbled before he was hit. The QB is just as responsible as the OL, especially if it was the QBs job to recognize a blitz.
- Thank you SF Giants for an incredible 2010 season and painting the City orange & black!
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
That particular fumble?
Babin was on him in 1.9 seconds. That registers as a quick sack.
I don’t know if you remember the play, but Babin came off the edge completely unblocked. The pocket hadn’t even been set up. Alex just took the hike and, “Hello, Babin!”
I would say neither of the two fumbles Alex has given up were his fault.
Alex Smith Will Win a Superbowl
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Alex-Smith-Will-Win-a-Superbowl/205058042848290
If you fumble before you're touched
That’s your fault. It’s the QB’s job, as it is every offensive player, to protect the ball when going down.
- Thank you SF Giants for an incredible 2010 season and painting the City orange & black!
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
I still disagree
When you’re getting hit that often, that quickly, you do not have a lot of time to protect the ball.
We’re not talking Alex failing to get rid of it, or find his open target, or scramble and throw the ball away, or anything like that. We’re talking: hike, Mississippi one Mississip… guy in your face/on your back/etc.
I can understand the Philly one looked a lot worse because he bumbled the ball before even getting hit, but Babin was in his face right after the snap.
I still say, on the whole, Alex is doing great in the fumble department; given how many sacks Alex has taken that were not his fault, and how many of those could have been fumbles but he did a great job of keeping possession.
Alex Smith Will Win a Superbowl
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Alex-Smith-Will-Win-a-Superbowl/205058042848290
On the whole, I agree, he’s doing well. I still think that fumble is completely his responsibility, whereas the fumble vs Detroit was on Staley and a great play by the defender to strip and recover in one motion.
- Thank you SF Giants for an incredible 2010 season and painting the City orange & black!
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Ok.. and if your going to blast him for losing fumbles in less than 2 seconds...
Than surely you must give him credit for things such as hanging on to the ball when Demarcus Ware thumps him from behind and gets a piece of the ball in the process???
Sack/fumbles from behind
QBs striped from behind
Brees
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jg0tZAKurJw
Rivers
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3PqnWsG3Nl0
Brady
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZYrVldcetc
Montana
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FAABWqhNvtg&feature=related
Because fumbles are generally part QB fault part O-Line fault.
Alex wouldn’t be in a position to lose the ball if the O-Line did its job.
Affectionately,
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar,
NBA’s All-Time Leading Scorer
by afrikabamboodle on Oct 22, 2011 1:33 PM PDT up reply actions
r u serious?
what would make anybody think Kaepernick would be an upgrade at this point? Maybe eventually, but now? game 11? There has literally been nothing to suggest that’s a feasible notion.
Fumbles don't count because they largely happen when a QB is sacked.
And sacks are largely not the QBs fault.
People blaming Smith for the sacks need to do a little analysis. Smith’s sack rate is the highest since his rookie year. This despite generally being better at every other aspect of his game.
So somehow, blaming Smith for all these sacks means that he’s somehow improved every part of his game but his pocket presence has gotten worse?
Or you could just, I dunno, watch the games – when for the most part it’s been clear that the line has been doing a horrid job making the correct blocking assignements and/or holding their blocks.
That makes very little sense. If anything, the high sack rate makes the low INT% rate even more impressive. Most QBs throw a lot of picks when they’re getting pounded.
"And sacks are largely not the QBs fault..."
Just…so not true.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Speaking to the statement in general, my man!
“And sacks are largely not the QBs fault…” My comment is addressing that thought in general, not Alex specifically.
And I’m not just talking about QBs who fail to recognize edge pressure or overloads, who play slow, who don’t “feel pressure well”, who don’t recognize coverage or fronts
quickly, who aren’t decisive, who don’t slide in the pocket well, who don’t throw HOT to voided zones well, who don’t make the correct checks in and out of bad plays, etc. It’s still your reponsibility if you’re GOOD at everything I just mentioned.
If the line is not playing well, it’s your job as the QB to adjust your play accordingly. It’s on you to get it out of your hand quicker, get on your skates sooner, or check into a different play.
You gotta cook the meal w/the food you’ve got in the kitchen. Doesn’t matter if it’s FAIR or not, that’s your JOB as a QB.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 10:14 PM PDT up reply actions
If the line is not playing well, it’s your job as the QB to adjust your play accordingly. It’s on you to get it out of your hand quicker, get on your skates sooner, or check into a different play.
Okay, well, for starters, I agree with you that QB play plays a role in the number of sacks that happen. I was speaking in shorthand, because I will say this:
Alex Smith has not primarily been responsible for most of the sacks he’s taken this year.
If the line is not playing well, it’s your job as the QB to adjust your play accordingly. It’s on you to get it out of your hand quicker, get on your skates sooner, or check into a different play.
Actually, no. You are wrong on some of the facts here. It’s the coach’s job to adjust the game plan to take account for the o-line getting their ass kicked. The QB is not supposed to audible out of fear of one of his teammates not being able to do their job.
The QB is generally supposed to audible when he a) sees something which means the play won’t work even if everybody does their job or b) sees something which he can specifically exploit.
It is absolutely, positively NOT the QB’s responsibility to audible because he thinks something along the lines of, “Anthony Davis has been doing a horrible job stopping his guy all day. He’ll probably whiff again.”
You don’t always have the option of “getting it out of your hand quicker” – because you can’t throw the ball until a player has run his route and is looking for it. Even still, you can’t throw it until you know the receiver has adjusted his route based on his read.
Perhaps the most absurd NN comment of all time...
Congratulations!
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 11:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Nice bit of analysis, there.
Basically, “neener, neener, I disagree”
How many times are you going to respond to that post before you actually say something that’s substantive and correct?
Not talking to you; responding to Libra45
this showed up way down here, sorry you took it wrong…
and take stuff out of context to win an argument much? lol… you get to the line and see something that makes you think “Anthony’s gonna whiff”, you damn well consider checking into something else. Especially if you think it’s a critical play late in the game. It’s not called “fear”, it’s called having the “balls/guts” to make a decisive choice to try and be successful. That’s part of being a QB; havin’ the stones to put your ass on the chopping block if you guess wrong sometimes.
Having the nerve to trust your instincts. Sometimes that means giving your struggling teammate a chance, other times it means making a play on your own. Why do you think coaches SCREAM at QBs from time to time? You think it’s because THEY ALWAYS DO WHAT THE COACH WANTS? Look at Ditka and McMahon. McMahon didn’t like a play, he didn’t EVEN HIDE IT that he’d change it at will. Part of Alex’s PROBLEM is that he hasn’t had the balls/nerve/confidence/whatever to trust his INSTINCTS to make decisions in the moment both physically and mentally. I’ve done this stuff at the LOS in college in games. Have you?
libra45’s absurd comment
why do fumbles not count , 8 td 5 turnovers. unless he keeps improving kaep will replace him when harbaugh thinks its time. estimate would be 11th game after we are 8-2.
hope we keep lucking out until kaep is ready, alex is not future . however harbaugh has done a miracle so far.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 24, 2011 2:07 AM PDT up reply actions
c'mon man
I will go with what Harbaugh decides and I have a feeling that he’s going to want Smith to stay for one more year if not longer. I will say that I wasn’t a fan of Smith, but neither was I a detractor. I just believe that he deserved a fair shake after having to deal with Nolan and Singletary. Niner fans were bitching and moaning that Harbaugh was crazy to keep Smith, but he saw something that many others didn’t.
Harbaugh was able to reach Smith with a very limited amount of practice or camps because of the lock out AND LOOK WHAT THEY’VE BEEN ABLE TO ACCOMPLISH SO FAR. Just imagine a full year of camps and who knows how far they’ll go. It would be crazy and shortsighted to start looking for another QB; especially when the need isn’t there and the Head Coach still believes in his QB… I think Harbaugh knows what Alex Smith can accomplish. If he has faith in him…SO DO I…
by ESSJPeteDawg on Oct 22, 2011 12:38 PM PDT reply actions 8 recs
I tried to rec this, but it's not showing, not yet, at least
After all was said and done, a lot more got said than done.
You did
It’s showing up in your profile that you rec’d it and PeteDawg’s comment is now greened.
by LondonNiner on Oct 22, 2011 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Very well said
I rec. too, say’s its loading.
Reccing ...
… is definitely slow. I just rec’d that comment too just to see and I am also getting the ‘loading’ message, but they are going through.
Ok, then when Harbaugh replaces Alex with a younger MORE athletic quarterback
You will be on board with that as well? Your reply assumes that Harbaugh is going to keep Alex on for one more year. That could be, or could NOT be the case…Only the coaches can tell what they are thinking about that issue right now.
What Rookie Linebacker Is Second Of All Linebackers In Sacks With 5.5, A Forced Fumble, And A Safety - All On Limited Playing Time?
And you're point???
Yes, I will be on BOARD with whatever Harbaugh decides. He hasn’t given me a reason to doubt him so far.
One last thing you’re right I don’t know what is going on in Harbaughs head, BUT I don’t believe he WOULD go out on a limb for a guy he owes NOTHING and at the same irritating the fan base. Harbaugh where’s his HEART on his sleeve. He’s not a Machiavellian type of coach. He values loyalty that is obvious.
The more wins Alex Smith has the more he becomes entrenched. If he takes them to the playoffs the entrenchment, becomes bigger. He wins a PLAYOFF game and Smith ain’t going anywhere. Colin can sit and wait his turn like a good little boy…
by ESSJPeteDawg on Oct 22, 2011 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Nope
I don’t think Harbaugh is going to keep Alex on because of the buddy system.
If Colin is at any point a better quarterback than Alex, Colin is going to be the quarterback.
Harbaugh already said the position is going to the guy who earns it.
What Rookie Linebacker Is Second Of All Linebackers In Sacks With 5.5, A Forced Fumble, And A Safety - All On Limited Playing Time?
Ride him as long as you can
Its simple, really…not sure why we’re talking about this already at week 6, other than the season has gone so well this far that we need to manufacture something to debate about…
All you do is ride Alex as long as its working. And, hopefully, that means giving Colin 2-3 years to grow…the “dream scenario” of Colin being ready in a year is likely is a long shot, and now likely an impossibility because the Niners have been nowhere near bad enough for him to get some starts this year. I think we can admit that we shouldnt focus on where he was drafted, it was the way things played out (Ponder a 1st rounder) that made him a high pick anyway.
And honestly, I think a better dream scenario is just this, 2-3 good, winning years out of Alex before transitioning to a much more comfortable and experienced Kaepernick.
The fact is
We’re 5-1 with Alex and I could care less how it looks, let’s just enjoy this season so far and worry about this question after the playoffs.
by ManBearPig21 on Oct 22, 2011 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Nothing against Alex Smith. but in reality.. We are 5-1 right now because of the awesome DEFENSE!
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
Well , thinkin " the Special Team play has been on par to the Defensive play ...!!
I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ...Jimmy Raye your no daisy ...!!
Eagles
Defense didn’t score two TDs in the 3rd to bring the Niners back
Defense did limit them to 3 points in the 2nd half
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Reporter : "What do you remember about the BCS title game"
Cliff Harris: "That we lost"
"Stopping the run doesn't come because of scheme. It come because of want to." - Donte Whitner
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When Jim Harbaugh says "more is more" I think he is trying to say Moore is more.
Yep,
Those 4th quarter comebacks by our defense has been so amazing it’s almost mystical.
by ColoradoNiner on Oct 23, 2011 8:19 AM PDT up reply actions
Have to resign him
Raiders just gave up potentially two first rounders for a guy at QB who looked washed up for two years and wont have a QB rating of 95 this year – guarantee.
Kevin Kolb anyone?!
Harbaugh knew that he could get Smith to perform, with some decent tuition and belief.
No brainer to keep him around for a couple of year – is Kaep turns out super (which i doubt) then Smith can back him up or be traded
Not sure why
doubt Kap, they nailed the other picks. This is turning into a nice problem to have.
cranky throwing motion
and hit rate on qb’s not great – they tend to be hard to find.
either way, he is a project – and thus you dont toss a top 10 (based on first six games for the offense JH wants to run) QB on the scrap heap
If Harbaugh can fix Alex, or get this much out of Alex...
I can’t wait to see what he’s done with, or will do, with Kaepernick. Harbaugh must have thought the throwing motion wasn’t much of an issue, or why would he wait until Dalton was gone, and then trade UP to get him?
I think Harbaugh thought he could either help Kaepernick fix the motion or throw well in spite of it. I am right now willing to believe whatever Jim Harbaugh touches will turn to gold, so I’m going with the thinking Kaepernick is going to do well. Given what I’ve seen of Harbaughs time scale, I think it will be sooner that you think.
Evidence: 5-1, Alex Smith, Offensive line, and Bruce Miller laerning the Full Back position.
What Rookie Linebacker Is Second Of All Linebackers In Sacks With 5.5, A Forced Fumble, And A Safety - All On Limited Playing Time?
Alex Smith is barely better than Curtis Painter in any measure of statistics at this point in the season.
The only statistic Alex convincingly exceeds Painter at is the Win / Loss record this season. The rest of them thay are nearly identical.
Painter is almost + 19.8 yards a game passing over Alex. Alex has one more interception and 3 more touchdowns than Curtis. Alex is +2.2 quarterback rating over Curtis Painter. Curtis averages one more yard per completion. Curtis has completed three passes over 40 yards, including an 87 yard touchdown pass, while Alex has completed only one pass over 40 yards – no touchdown.
While I like the direction Alex is going in Harbaugh’s system, there is no way I rule out his being replaced on any given Sunday.
I am not privy to what is going on in the 49ers practices, or in Jim Harbaugh’s mind – nor would I ever pretend to be. If I were to guess however, seeing how anxious he is to get Colin on the field early in his rookie year, I would say Alex is not that far from being replaced in the system if he doesn’t continue to improve. I’m going to guess that he needs a lot more improvement than some of the Alex supporters would lead you to believe if he’s going to stay ahead of Colin.
I say this because Colin has a lot of athletic talent, a lot of brains, and a lot of confidence. Harbaugh hand picked Colin, and not Alex. Colin is going to be the guy, if he works out. Harbaugh is clearly trying to get him playing time, so he must be doing something right.
I like Alex and I think he’ll be a fine backup for us later, or a starter somwhere maybe. But I doubt he holds off Colin for as long as we would like to think. Maybe if he continues to get better, but not at this rate, in my humble opinion.
What Rookie Linebacker Is Second Of All Linebackers In Sacks With 5.5, A Forced Fumble, And A Safety - All On Limited Playing Time?
Football stats are different
You can’t simply compare numbers without taking a ton of other variables into account.
Baseball is easier to compare because of the following…despite the team nature of the sport most stats are the direct result of individual actions.
In football you have 11 members on a team that contribute to every single statistic. You also have situations that deflate stats:
-If you are running to control the clock with a lead your QB isn’t adding to his stats
-If you are passing to catch up when behind your RB isn’t adding to his stats
-If a punt pins you on the 1 or 2 yard line the QB won’t be given a shot to pass unless the RB can gain enough yards first
We haven’t even reached a discussion on the different offensive systems but you can see how simply comparing stats in a vacuum can be misleading
However, if you want to see some surprising stats check the following:
Joe Montana in his 3rd year under Bill Walsh (before he became the man, the myth, the legend) in a WCO looked surprisingly similar to AleX Smith (2011 Harbaugh updated version)
AS (2011)——-JM(1981)
CMP%————-63.3——-63.7
TD%——————-5.1——-3.9
INT%——————1.3———2.5
Y/A———————-6.9———7.3
Y/C——————-10.9——-11.5
Y/G——————181.7—-222.8
QB Rating——-95.2——88.4
I am NOT saying Alex Smith is Joe Montana. My entire post above basically says you can’t make those type of comparisons.
But these similar offensive systems show similar trends. Alex Smith and his non fantasy football statistics appear to be exactly what we should expect from a WCO quarterback.
Joe Montana did not put up fantasy numbers. Joe Montana is the best because he was 4-0 with 0 INTs in the Super Bowl and he was absolutely CLUTCH under pressure (look John Candy!).
CLUTCH > STATS (cue the Cam Newton discussion)
If Alex can build on that CLUTCH TD he threw to D.Walker we can do damage in the playoffs.
Maybe Harbaugh himself is aware of this. His Lions post game locker room speech was chanting “CLUTCH” and pointing at Alex Smith.
You don’t need a QB with eye popping numbers. You need a QB that puts points on the board…period. Style points are nice but all you want is a SB title
TGWTWS...there isn't much else that needs to be said
by McCoven on Oct 22, 2011 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions 7 recs
I like what you say here, sir.
Alex Smith Will Win a Superbowl
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Alex-Smith-Will-Win-a-Superbowl/205058042848290
You hit it right on the nail.
Ultimately it comes down to the question of, “Do you play the game for the title? Or do you play the game for the numbers?” Some people value SB rings. Some people value the 300 yard passing games and completion percentage.
10 completions, 21 pass attempts, 47% completion, 1 TD 2 INT, WIN
34 completions, 42 pass attempts, 80% completion 4 TD 1 INT, LOSS
I’d take the ugly stat performance and win every single day.
Affectionately,
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar,
NBA’s All-Time Leading Scorer
by afrikabamboodle on Oct 22, 2011 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions
Let’s go ahead and adjust some of those numbers for the league. We have access at PFR to +stats, which rate many of these in terms of the league average. In rough terms, a score of 100 is average, 105 is 5% above average, and so forth.
Smith 2011:
CMP%: 108
TD%: 108
INT%: 123
AY/A: 109
RTG: 114
Montana 1981:
CMP%: 127
TD%: 96
INT%: 126
AY/A: 116
RTG: 122
So Smith 2011, right now, rates out pretty well against Montana 1981 in terms of TD%, and – while he’s doing well – is clearly inferior otherwise.
That was also an uncharacteristically low year for Montana in terms of TD%. In 1980, he rated out at 116, and in 1982 at 108, so he was well below even his established capabilities there (you would expect something to the tune of 110, which was almost exactly his career average by the end). On the other hand, there’s no real reason to suggest positive regression for any of Smith’s numbers.
The “similarity” is interesting, but I don’t think it’s incredibly apt. I would suggest that congratulating anybody for performing at similar statistical levels to a quarterback in 1981 is a backhanded compliment.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Oct 22, 2011 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions
I’d also like to address the myth that Montana did not put up fantasy numbers. He did. If you had a fantasy team in 1981, you would have drafted him in the top 10. His numbers were FANTASTIC for the era.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Oct 22, 2011 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions
It's hard to compare QB's (stats and all) from different eras.
The game has changed. The rules are different, the style of play is different, the capabilities of players are different.
That said, given the was a lockout year and they team has installed a totally new offensive system and made adjustments to their defense, how can anyone complain about what we are seeing when it outshines what even the most optimistic fans might have projected? By default, that means the team as a whole has overacheived – which includes AS.
by ColoradoNiner on Oct 23, 2011 8:25 AM PDT up reply actions
I wasn’t complaining, though.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Oct 23, 2011 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions
So we all agree that statistics say absolutely nothing about quarterbacking?
Because that’s my point here. Statistics say Alex is pretty even with Curtis Painter. Only Painter hasn’t won a single game. Alex has only lost one, and that in overtime.
These stats that say Alex is top 5 are meaningless in my opinion. The only stat I count is, did he win the game? Did he do enough when it counted to win the game? In that case, Ok yeah, he’s top five – right now.
But you better believe if he collapses in the playoffs he’s gone soon after. Anyone who thinks otherwise has no idea why Harbaugh picked us over Michigan, Miami, and Stanford. He want’s to win the big one! If Alex can’t get us there, we are going to move on the the next guy. There is no buddy system.
Oh and you better believe you need an ELITE quarterback to be the best. A second rate dog might get you there, and he might get lucky. But if you want another trip to the big one, you gotta have The Man.
The question is…Is Alex The Man?
What Rookie Linebacker Is Second Of All Linebackers In Sacks With 5.5, A Forced Fumble, And A Safety - All On Limited Playing Time?
by Pat Willie on Oct 22, 2011 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
that's a good post
STATS are usually mis-interpreted when it comes to the QB.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 22, 2011 2:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Agreed
STATS for a QB just don’t tell the story of all the variables
To give a very simple example…the TD pass Walker dropped.
QBs get too much of the credit and blame. Just the nature of the sport
TGWTWS...there isn't much else that needs to be said
Statistically speaking, over a large enough sample you would expect bad drops to wash out with great catches.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Oct 22, 2011 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions
As a very generalized way of saying it, of course. A great wide receiver would presumably shift the rate. But the rate would be stable nonetheless given a good sample.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Oct 22, 2011 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Spot on.
Harbaugh will have this team ready to win the big one. If Alex doesn’t prove he’s up to the task, then he’s done with. Same goes for everyone else.
And isn’t it awesome that we are all talking like this? Instead of everyone saying, “If Alex can just get us to the playoffs, we can have something to build on.”
I never liked that train of thought. Who cares about making it to the playoffs. I want a couple more Superbowl rings. It’s awesome to finally have a coach who is thinking the same thing.
Alex Smith Will Win a Superbowl
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Alex-Smith-Will-Win-a-Superbowl/205058042848290
by liberty_JAC on Oct 22, 2011 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Hell Motha Bleepin' YEAH!
in the words of Al Davis, Just Win Baby!
I don’t agree with that, no.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Oct 22, 2011 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions
stats
Not in my opinion. Stats are part of the whole picture. To say they mean absolutely nothing is a stretch.
by David Fucillo on Oct 22, 2011 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Over a long sample size for a QB...
Like a season at the LEAST…
QBR as a game stat, for example? Ridiculous… (not that it CAN’T be accurrate for a single game or small sample size, it’s just not INHERENTLY accurate).
STATS for 7 on 7 during training camp? STATS for QBs during OTA’s and MINI-CAMP are now reported and mused over. Utterly ridiculous.
STAT evaluation for QBs is typically BUTCHERED by the masses imo…
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 22, 2011 5:39 PM PDT up reply actions
it's all contextual
I’ve never said stats are the complete picture of a QB. But to say they mean absolutely nothing is just going to the opposite extreme.
by David Fucillo on Oct 22, 2011 5:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Not you...
But many, many people do take the STATS way, way out of context. Especially when it comes to QB evaluation.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions
Look at what's happened today w/Tebow and Sanchez
Took 7 sacks… Many of them HIS FAULT. Numbers (I’m guessing from watching, I didn’t pay attention) were garbage for 3 Q’s. So many things he has to do better it isn’t even funny…
Broncos WIN. Tebow has a HUGE PART in it. Stats won’t show that at all for the most part.
Look at Sanchez today… Once AGAIN get ‘s the job done in the 4th Q to WIN THE GAME. Look at all the Sanchez-bashing based on STATS. The guy COMES THROUGH IN THE CLUTCH OVER AND OVER AND OVER. Sure he’s struggled, but he wins. Jets are 4-3, doing just fine.
The interpretation of QBs based on STATS first, rather than WINS (albeit a STAT in and of itself, I know) first, it’s just DEAD WRONG…
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Sanchez
In regards to Sanchez, I view that as proof that football is a team game and why wins is not a QB stat but a team stat. Sanchez made some solid throws in the second half, but he also benefited from a strong defensive effort that half. Again, I’m not here to say he performed poorly in the second half, but I’m not going to interpret his specific performance strictly based on the fact that this team won the game.
by David Fucillo on Oct 23, 2011 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions
When I hear about how Aaron Rodgers had the “ideal” situation to develop, I always think of Sanchez. I’m not convinced that Rodgers’s career would have taken a markedly different path had Favre left that team two, or even three years sooner.
But Sanchez is the perfect example of ideal development. I can’t imagine that Mark Sanchez would still be starting for any other team in the NFL, but the Jets had the talent, the patience, and the plan to allow him to come along slowly. He’s never been asked to do more than he can do, because that team has never needed him to do more than he could do and, frankly, never wanted him to. Now, I still don’t think much of him as a player, but he owes his continuing NFL career to the fact that he happened to land in New York at the right time.
He’s the perfect example of what an NFL team can squeeze out of a mediocre prospect when they have the talent and the time to do it.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Oct 23, 2011 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions
He’s the perfect example of what an NFL team can squeeze out of a mediocre prospect when they have the talent and the time to do it.
Agreed. He’s not very good, but they’ve protected him.
Compare that to what happened to Alex Smith his first couple of years, when he was thrown in there and running for his life when he didn’t really get the system yet. Or when he was pressured to play when hurt.
Yeah, he was a "mediocre prospect"...
That’s why he was the 5th player taken in the draft.
[rolling eyes]
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 6:31 PM PDT up reply actions
There were a lot of doubts about him coming out.
Some people thought he went so high mostly because of the QBs SC had produced thus far. He had very few college starts, which usually correlates with how good a prospect someone is.
That was a weak, weak year, too, once you got past Stafford. Freeman went later in the first, and after him the most accomplished passer from that draft year was Curtis Painter. Blech.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Oct 23, 2011 9:30 PM PDT up reply actions
:-D
People said the EXACT SAME THING…
…when Alex Smith was drafted.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 10:17 PM PDT up reply actions
2005 wasn’t a great class, but it was better than 2009.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Oct 23, 2011 11:26 PM PDT up reply actions
They did.
Everybody said Leinart would be the #1 pick if he came out, and when he didn’t there was a lot of “neither of these guys is a true #1.”
I didn’t understand at the time what people saw in Leinart that they didn’t see in Rodgers. (I also have a huge distrust of QBs who come from factory football schools – it’s easy to be a QB when, as Leinart did, your offensive line beats the defensive line on every play in 9 out of your 11 games, and you have two first-round picks running the ball for you). But I also didn’t understand why you take Smith over Rodgers, either, seemed like an example of being seduced by the big arm, which is always a mistake.
what are you talking about?
Seduced by the big arm?
Even coming out of college, Rodgers had the better arm. That WAS NOT a disputed issue either.
Rodgers has a HOSE now. Smith has a slightly above average arm.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 24, 2011 2:19 AM PDT up reply actions
As for Leinart...
His problem’s been Nick Lachey, Paris Hilton, and being drunk and photographed in a hot tub full of drunken co’eds (after knocking up and dumping his pregnant girlfriend).
Whisenhunt HATED his “pretty boy/Hollywood” persona, and never gave him a chance to clean up his act. Can’t blame Whisenhunt necessarily, though D.Anderson was a COMLETE DISASTER.
Leinart didn’t fail as a player. He had a good Rookie year, up and down injury shortened 2nd year, and then was replaced by a HOF player. He never LOST his job, Kurt Warner TOOK IT. No shame in that (like the shame of hangin’ w/a BACKSTREET BOY or that petry-dish Paris Hilton).
Leinart isn’t a bust in the traditional sense. He’s well on his way to being one, but not because it’s PROVEN that he can’t play.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 24, 2011 9:21 AM PDT up reply actions
Don't do the revisionist historian thing; the questions were whether Sanchez should be a top 5 pick...
Not doubts as to whether he was a 1st Rounder or a very, very good prospect.
The 49ers were very likely going to select him at No. 10 if he fell to them.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 24, 2011 5:14 PM PDT up reply actions
...and Sanchez will just keep on WINNING...
…wherever he plays, no matter HOW YOU GUYS interpret his STATS.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 6:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Sanchez is having a fine statistical season right now.
And crediting Tebow for his role in the fourth quarter comeback seems to willfully ignore his role in the team not scoring a single point for more than 45 game minutes against what may be the worst team in the league.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Oct 23, 2011 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions
You know, sometimes 4th quarter comebacks come because the team throws caution to the wind.
People see a guy throw a couple of big TDs and they think it’s clutchness – rather, it’s just that they’re airing it out and taking risks.
What was the game for us last year with Smith, where he led a near-comeback and they threw a killer pick to end it? That was a great example. He threw that pick for the same reason that he threw the TDs – the team threw caution out the window. When you’re behind late you take that risk – it’s the smart thing to do.
I tend to think most examples of “clutch” play are just random statistical variation giving us a pattern. John Elway had a lot of comebacks because his team was behind a lot late and he was a good QB (and Dan Reeves tended to handcuff him early in games). I like Joe Montana leading the team down a score in a big game more than I like Alex Smith leading the team down a score in a big game not because Joe is more clutch than Alex, but because he’s just a better QB, period. That makes him look “clutch.”
Choking happens. But most of the stuff that people look at and say “choke” about – like an INT when mounting a furious comeback – isn’t choking at all. It’s what you’d expect in that sort of situation.
You don't get style points for WINS...
…and Tebow’s been WINNING since Junior High.
Critics of Mike Vick used to say the same thing when he was a Falcon despite the two MEDIOCRE teams he led to the NFC Title Game.
Just watch Tebow keep winning as the years roll by. Just watch.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 6:29 PM PDT up reply actions
Vick went to one NFC title game
And it was very weak year for the NFC.
- Thank you SF Giants for an incredible 2010 season and painting the City orange & black!
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Point is...
…Vick’s teams WIN and win a lot. College, pros, wherever. They win regardless of his stats. He makes plays.
Tebow will be similar. Mark my words.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 10:23 PM PDT up reply actions
Point is…
…Vick’s teams WIN and win a lot. College, pros, wherever. They win regardless of his stats. He makes plays.
Sure helps to be on a team with a great running game.
Vick is capable of plays that most QBs can only dream about. He also makes a lot of mistakes. When he’s been on good teams, we’s won. When he’s been on mediocre teams, he hasn’t.
The Eagles did not have a great running game last year
The Eagles were also NOT supposed to win more than 7 games last year according to many so-called experts.
Same experts who said Vick would NEVER MAKE A COMEBACK.
The Falcons were not GOOD when he was leading them to winning seasons as a young player. They were MEDIOCRE to BAD.
You’d dispute me if I said that water was wet…
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 24, 2011 2:24 AM PDT up reply actions
For what it’s worth, Vick’s stats last season were downright Young-ian.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Oct 24, 2011 7:17 AM PDT up reply actions
Exactly
And yet he and the Eagles were one and done in the playoffs.
And during some (STATISTICALLY) FAR INFERIOR seasons, he pushed his teams deeper into the playoffs… With arguably WORSE supporting casts than he had in Atlanta… With INARGUABLY better coaching than he had in Atlanta… And on and and on and on…
STATS don’t tell the tale for QBs anywhere close to as accurrately as WINS.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 24, 2011 8:43 AM PDT up reply actions
It takes an awful lot of tortured logic to suggest that Vick’s magical ability to win games was somehow diminished by his superior statistical play in 2010. If you don’t see the inherent contradiction here, then I can’t pull it out for you.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Oct 24, 2011 8:54 AM PDT up reply actions
not at all...
;D
I see what you’re sayin’… The darn problem w/trying to infer things that are typed rather than spoken and heard… oh well.
My point… Not that he has any MAGICAL ability, NOT that said magical ability was diminished last year, JUST THAT STATS are not a reliable measure of how WELL
a QB is playing.
Joe, even in HIS ERA, his STATS were trumped (other than QBR and Comp%) by quite a few other QBs that he was CLEARLY BETTER THAN.
Steve Young has BETTER STATS than Joe when projected over the same # of games. Steve was incredible, but he WASN’T as good.
STATS don’t tell the story tale for QBs. This bears itself out over and over and over.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 24, 2011 9:04 AM PDT up reply actions
Less WORDY/RAMBLING answer...
Mike Vick is very good now w/his MONSTER stats in Andy Reid’s offense.
Mike Vick used to be very good w/pedestrian PASSING stats in the Falcons offense.
Mike Vick is a very good QB, period. Always has been. Regardless of his stats.
He’s a better PASSER now, but there’s no definitive proof he’s a better player (the job is to WIN PERIOD, not to WIN- BY-PASSING). He’s not WINNING any more or less now than he ever did even the numbers are drastically changed.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 24, 2011 9:12 AM PDT up reply actions
Interesting enough, Vick’s 2011 passing stats are aligned rather well with his career numbers, except that his completion percentage is higher, which drives his yards per attempt up, and that his total attempts are higher, which drive his counting stats up. His TD%, INT%, and Y/C are virtually identical to what you would have expected out of him when he played in Atlanta.
The X-Factor with Vick, though, has always been his running. Looking at his passing stats alone has always been an incomplete measure of his success.
The one thing that’s been sort of overlooked here is that you don’t seem all that interested in WINS, but rather PLAYOFF WINS (For instance, only rarely have Vick’s teams played significantly better than .500 in games that he’s started). And I’ll probably never convince you of the sample shenanigans that happen when you only care about playoff games.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Oct 24, 2011 9:27 AM PDT up reply actions
good points, good post...
By WINS, I’m not so much looking at the % over a career, but rather do they GET TO THE POST SEASON frequently.
By looking to hard at the WINNING PCT (yet another STAT!!! AUGHHH!!!), you’re not counting the give away games late in a season when you’ve clinched in advance. You’re not factoring in the 4-12 season that comes out of nowhere due to injuries, random acts of god, and/or guys shutting it down when the playoffs are no longer in reach.
As for playoff WINS specifically. If my arguments reflect a STATISTICAL pattern, it’s unintentional. I’ve no idea what the cumulative playoff record would be for QBs I frequently mention.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 24, 2011 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions
You may be underestimating how good Joe’s stats were for the era. Marino may be the only one who really gives him a run for his money in the ol’ numbers department. Fouts might be in the discussion.
And relative to the years, Young and Montana rate out fairly even by the pure passing numbers.
I’ll never understand the impulse to hold Montana up as a guy who didn’t put up the stats, but won anyway. His numbers legitimately stand up to just about anybody else’s in the games history.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Oct 24, 2011 9:14 AM PDT up reply actions
By quite a few...
…I meant Marino, Fouts, Elway, Jim Kelly (and a lot of his damage stats-wise is cumulative and came later in his career), maybe a couple others.
I agree completely that Joe’s numbers were excellent.
Again my point is that purely looking at or HEAVILY WEIGHTING STATS is a BAD QB measuring stick. For example: I love Tom Brady. His 50 & 8 and 36 & 4 seasons are off the charts in ANY ERA, but I don’t think he played as well as Joe in ’89, or as Marino in ’84.
I could also argue that Young, Kelly, and even P.Manning had better individual seasons during years that were STATISTICALLY INFERIOR.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 24, 2011 9:29 AM PDT up reply actions
(Edit -- Elway's damage stats-wise is cumulative and came-later, etc...)
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 24, 2011 9:31 AM PDT up reply actions
Joe w/the Chiefs...
Team not as good, stats not as good…
AFC Championship Game and Wildcard in 2 seasons.
Joe was a WINNER.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 24, 2011 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions
Elway...
Early career… Dan Reeves stats were pretty pedestrian at times. Took fairly mediocre Bonco teams to 3 Super Bowls where they got their heads kicked in.
Late career… Great WCO Shanny stats… 2 Super Bowl wins.
Much like Vick, he became a MUCh BETTER PASSER, though he was ALWAYS a great player.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 24, 2011 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions
My energy for this is tanking, in part because I appear to be supporting an implicit position that I don’t necessarily. I do not take the simple stat line as the be all, end all for performance. My position is that statistical proficiency does correlate pretty well with overall success. I will never stand by the idea that wins tell most of the story for an individual player, though, specifically because we know they don’t. Lest I need to fall back again on the Trent Dilfer theorem, which transitions nicely back to Mark Sanchez (just so we can come full circle here).
No, stats don’t tell the whole story for a quarterback. No, wins don’t either. Wins are kind of worse at it, because there is so much noise coming in from the rest of the team. What stats do is correlate pretty well with success. I don’t think we’ve said anything that contradicts that.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Oct 24, 2011 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions
:-) Me too, and...
…I know we’re not really arguing. I know from our present and past back and forth as well as the stuff I read from you in other threads, you’ve got a keen knowlege of and very broad perspective on the game.
This is pretty much my last thread for a while…
The stream-of-consciousness reserve tank is almost completely on “E”… Probably a couple more comments when Ronald inevitably BLASTS me later on today, then I’m goin’ dark… ;D
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 24, 2011 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions
I do not take the simple stat line as the be all, end all for performance.
The people who do so exist only in the minds of people making anti-stats arguments on internet message boards.
If panties are in a twist...
…they shouldn’t be.
Like you say, It’s just the net.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 24, 2011 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions
(Add -- ...and Joe in '84 for that matter. Arguably better than Marino, despite Dan's gaudy STATS...)
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 24, 2011 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions
For you, I’ll watch.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Oct 23, 2011 9:32 PM PDT up reply actions
( ;D )
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 10:18 PM PDT up reply actions
They are
Single game statistics are only useful for descriptive purposes, i.e. telling the story of the game.
They say very little about the value, skill, or competence of the player as you can’t control all of the variables.
For predictive purposes you generally need a much larger sample size, but even those are plagued with noise and confounding variables.
For example Alex Smith — how do you control for the inconsistency of the receiver talent level, the speed dating offensive coordinators he’s worked under, and the absolutely horrid playcalling of the last several years. The argument that it all comes out in the wash doesn’t hold water because these are systematic failures, not random events that should be balanced out by other random events. Now if you are just measuring the quality of the 49ers offense, then it’s correct to include those variables, but not when you try to judge one player with no way to control for them.
Statistics have to be taken in the context of fundamental knowledge of the game — which is where even sometimes the FO/CHFF/ANS guys gets lost.
by Ougadas on Oct 23, 2011 1:42 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
excellent post
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions
Don't Forget
Painter has completed a whole 54.9 percent of his passes and has been studying in that system for a while. To make a comparison, and forget a VERY important part of the statistical analysis, that o completion percentage, is silly lol. Alex is at what…63.3 percent, and he has WON his games. So he is completing his passes, and he is winning. It doesn’t matter how far he throws the ball, just that it gets there and the players can make the plays…. go GAME MANAGER!!
I am not a fan of Cherry Picking ignoring somewhat important statistics.
Premature evaluation
Still have 2/3s of the season to go.
Right now I just want our team to get healthy and to beat Cleveland.
We need something to banter about
Don’t we?
You can get medicine for premature evaluation, just so you know.
by LondonNiner on Oct 22, 2011 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions 6 recs
Yes, but that is called, "getting out and getting a life"
Which means a lot less time on boards such as this.
I doubt you would prescribe such a remedy. :-)
by ColoradoNiner on Oct 23, 2011 8:29 AM PDT up reply actions
LOL We can't get rid of him anyway
He’ll leave us when he is ready.
I'm in business of giving the business and business is booming!
4 Most likely outcomes
1. Alex continues on enough of an upward trajectory that Harbaugh/Baalke are compelled to resign him for at least another year. 2nd year in the same offensive system with a clue. The opportunity to undo 6 bad years and build on 1 good year. Raye-Gun doesn’t count.
2. Alex hits the ceiling in the 2011 regular season or in the playoffs. Harbaugh recognizes it, and signs Josh Johnson away from Tampa Bay in the 2012 offseason while hedging his bets on Colin Kaepernick.
3. Alex hits the ceiling in the 2011 regular season or in the playoffs. Harbaugh recognizes it, and believes Colin Kaepernick is ready to lead the team in the 2012 offseason. Josh or Alex are signed to be the back-up/insurance.
4. Alex hits the ceiling, Harbaugh recognizes it, and can’t sign Josh Johnson, and Colin isn’t ready. Harbaugh suffers through uneven, ceiling impaired play from Alex and finds another QB of the future prospect to hedge against Colin.
Personally, I hope option 1 happens. I think we’re going to have a great idea which direction this thing is heading after the 2011 season. I just hope the idea is positive.
Jim Harbaugh doesn't just WANT winners, he MAKES them!
and I really hope that 4 does not happen. That would signal the franchise being set back.
Jim Harbaugh doesn't just WANT winners, he MAKES them!
5. In the middle of the 2011 season Harbaugh get bored with how easily the 49ers are winning the tough games and he puts on a helmet to play the quarterback position himself.
6. In the middle of the 2011 season Harbaugh get bored with how easily the 49ers are winning the tough games so he starts trying out defensive players at the quarterback position starting with Issac Sopoaga, who already has experience on offense.
What Rookie Linebacker Is Second Of All Linebackers In Sacks With 5.5, A Forced Fumble, And A Safety - All On Limited Playing Time?
by Pat Willie on Oct 22, 2011 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
5. Alex gets hurt, Colin replaces him and hangs onto the starting job from there.
"We just feel more certain assurance of success when all that's written is written against us. When honey words of praise are flowered upon us that we begin to feel exposed before our enemies." - Jim Harbaugh
by SanFranciscoKnights on Oct 22, 2011 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions
I'd really love it
If I never heard Josh Johnson’s name again. He was all Harbaugh had to work with at a small school without recruiting advantages and has a much lower ceiling than any guy we currently have on our roster.
Are you saying it was previously flozen?
What Rookie Linebacker Is Second Of All Linebackers In Sacks With 5.5, A Forced Fumble, And A Safety - All On Limited Playing Time?
You too I see
You’re like the team doctor up in here, prescribing viagra to the critical masses.
What Rookie Linebacker Is Second Of All Linebackers In Sacks With 5.5, A Forced Fumble, And A Safety - All On Limited Playing Time?
Just a few comments below this one, you refer to knocking on wood, so I take from this that you are in no need of any such supplements yourself …
This thread is silly and I move for it to be dismissed
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5H6AdKUthg
Alex Smith Will Win a Superbowl
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Alex-Smith-Will-Win-a-Superbowl/205058042848290
by liberty_JAC on Oct 22, 2011 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Luckily the 49ers don't have to make the decision now
They can let the season play out and see what happens. If Smith continues to do well, I don’t think they have to worry about him leaving. Smith isn’t going to leave Harbaugh’s system after he finally finds a coach who can help him be successful and have to learn a whole new system and deal with a new coaching staff.
Follow me on Twitter
twitter.com/derekre3
Why would you go and point out something sensible like them not needing to make a decision now when we’re pointlessly speculating about pointless speculation in a pointlessly speculative manner?
by LondonNiner on Oct 22, 2011 1:20 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
True true, that brings up a good point.
If we win, we don’t care who’s quarterback. As soon as we lose a game, the boo birds will return. We don’t need to replace Alex, we don’t need to rush Colin. Let’s just see what happens. If Alex stays, great. If he goes, that’s great too. Alex leaving would mean something better came along.
As long as there are no injuries, we’re doing just fine. Knock on wood.
What Rookie Linebacker Is Second Of All Linebackers In Sacks With 5.5, A Forced Fumble, And A Safety - All On Limited Playing Time?
Agreed!
Hear me please people, let’s just take it one game at a time, ok? Personally, I have this gut instinct that Kaep will get most of the 4th quarter against the Browns! Why? Because we will be up by enough that JH and staff believe the experience is needed for Kaep and there’s no reason for AleX to be in there! I also agree about bantering about something while improvement week continues, so relax all! Great comments Dr. London niner! Rotflol! Btw, any ideas what the coaches might be installing for the next few games, especially related to Baltimore?
Enough said above! I can't believe the "t-raiders" are going to play in OUR stadium! Bastards!
by 23mjheart on Oct 22, 2011 4:17 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Smith is a young guy on the upside of his career
Smith is only 27. That’s a mere 4 years older than Kap. Smith will keep improving as all good QB’s do at his age. Steve Young, for example, didn’t start for the Niners until he was 30.
So Smith will be the starting QB for years to come. He won’t ceiling out this year or next.
Kap’s best chance is if Alex gets injured. If he doesn’t, Kap will be riding the pine for a long time.
However, the most probable outcome is that down the road, Kap is traded for some high draft picks and Harbaugh will draft & groom a younger player. Heck, he may even get added to a package of picks to move up and draft Luck.
I disagree
I don’t think Alex Smith is that far ahead of Kaepernick right now. I don’t think if Harbaugh intended to keep Alex beyond this year, there wouldn’t have been a two year offer on the table. I see a much higher ceiling in Kaepernick if not just because his arm strength and superior running skills.
Alex is fending Kaepernick off right now, otherwise Harbaugh wouldn’t be trying to get Colin on the field at all.
What Rookie Linebacker Is Second Of All Linebackers In Sacks With 5.5, A Forced Fumble, And A Safety - All On Limited Playing Time?
and I dsiagree with you................
This kid was picked #1 overall because he has the tools to be an elite QB.
He only got a 1 yr deal to hedge the risk if he crapped out again.
The reality is if AS had Harbaugh as a QB coach since day one, he might be putting up Aaron Rodgers numbers.
R train to Bay Ridge Brooklyn!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Too many #1's have failed
To use the pick position as evidence. I trust a Harbaugh influenced second round pick over a Nolan #1 overall any day.
What Rookie Linebacker Is Second Of All Linebackers In Sacks With 5.5, A Forced Fumble, And A Safety - All On Limited Playing Time?
by Pat Willie on Oct 22, 2011 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Too many shoulder injuries, his arm strength isn't great and his deep throws are pretty suspect.
Don’t get me wrong, I love what Alex is doing, but he won’t be an elite QB at this point.
"We just feel more certain assurance of success when all that's written is written against us. When honey words of praise are flowered upon us that we begin to feel exposed before our enemies." - Jim Harbaugh
by SanFranciscoKnights on Oct 22, 2011 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree with you.
Unfortunately many NFL scouts do too. You know, those guys who are paid to actually know after 6 years whether or not a guy has the tangibles to be a solid player.
by FiveAlarmFreddy on Oct 22, 2011 9:15 PM PDT up reply actions
You mean the same scouts who scouted some of the current (and past) Elite QB's
As 3rd to 6th round picks?
by ColoradoNiner on Oct 23, 2011 8:32 AM PDT up reply actions
Big difference
between scouting a college player and someone who has played 6 years in the NFL.
by FiveAlarmFreddy on Oct 24, 2011 5:47 PM PDT up reply actions
Maybe run that logic by a guy named...
…Jim Plunkett.
Or Rich Gannon…
Or Jeff Garcia…
Or Doug Flutie…
Or Steve Young…
Or post prison Michael Vick…
Or Steve Beurlein…
Or Jake Delhomme….
Or Tommy Maddox…
Or Warren Moon…
Or…….
And that was just off the top of my head… Being in the NFL (USFL for Flutie & Young; CFL for Moon and Garcia; XFL for Tommy Maddox) for 6 years and BEING GIVEN UP ON… Not exactly unique for guys who ALL CAME BACK TO HAVE SUCCESS ON A VARYING DEGREE OF LEVELS.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 24, 2011 10:03 PM PDT up reply actions
I guesss you didn't watch the pre-season then because kap looked very ordinary
Alex Smith is a starting QB on a team with a 5-1 record. He has a bunch of starts and a bunch of wins under his belt.
Kap was a 2nd round pick, has played during one pre-season and looked crap. He’s had half a dozen NFL regular season plays in garbage time.
In NFL terms, Alex Smith is far, far above Kap in value. You may have seen that he can outperform Smith but I guarantee you that nobody in the professional football world has seen that.
Pre season?
Oh man, I hate it when people bring up pre season to put value on performance.
I look at it like this: Pre season is the exact opposite of what to expect in regular season.
Guys can do really well in pre season and get cut before the first game. Then guys can look like they’re floundering, and do really well in regular season.
The 49ers were 4-0 in preseason and stank it up in regular season last year. What were we this year? A non impressive 2-2?
I don’t like it. I don’t like it when you try to judge what a guy might be guy by what he’s done in his first NFL practice games ever.
What Rookie Linebacker Is Second Of All Linebackers In Sacks With 5.5, A Forced Fumble, And A Safety - All On Limited Playing Time?
Question isn't "What might Kaep be in the future"
Question is, is as good or better than Alex Smith right now and the immediate future. We’ve only seen Kaep go in the pre-season and one quarter of garbage time, and what he looked like in pre-season (the only real body of work we have to go on) suggests that Kaep is terrible right now and needs more time to develop.
that's the second time you've said he's trying to get Kaep on the field
what is that based on? The TB game? When they were ahead by a gajillion points and he didn’t go in until midway through the 4h quarter? He warmed up a few other times, but I don’t recall seeing him seriously prepping to go in. I haven’t seen anything to suggest Harbaugh is trying to get him out there. He might be for all I know, but I haven’t seen what you’re referring to.
I have 11
I have always supported AS we seen flashes of a very good qb at times, however, after last year I was hoping he would get waved. I felt bad for him. I knew with a good qb coach and offensive minded coach AS would thrive and do well. Now with hardball at the helm I have been proven correct. I wear his 11 jersey with pride again. He still shows signs of inconsistency and if he can be more consistent there is no doubt that he will get a new contract for at least 5 years for about 50 million and 35 mil guarantee range. Especially if he leads us to the NFC Championship.
He wins the Super Bowl, he gets that contract
He win’s the NFC he stays on another year or two, back to Super Bowl scenario.
He loses the NFC championship, he stays on and is fending off Colin.
He doesn’t get us to the championship, he might be a backup or on another team next year.
I might have higher expectaions than most of you here, but what’s wrong with that? Tell me.
What Rookie Linebacker Is Second Of All Linebackers In Sacks With 5.5, A Forced Fumble, And A Safety - All On Limited Playing Time?
no way
win or lose the NFC Championship AS will b signing a big contract here in SF
by colorado9erfan on Oct 22, 2011 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Nope.
Our team is good enough to win a Superbowl, the way they’re playing right now.
If Alex doesn’t keep up with that, and at the very least get us there… THIS SEASON… then people will question if he can get us there at all. And rightfully so.
This coming from a HUGE Alex Smith supporter (look at my sig).
Alex Smith Will Win a Superbowl
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Alex-Smith-Will-Win-a-Superbowl/205058042848290
Let's not overstate the team. We have a LONG way to go.
Huge 49ers fan, and I really want trophy number 6.
Right now, assuming no improvement from the key spots I’ll identify, we are another great draft away from the big dance. We need another pass rusher, another gamer CB, an Ed Reed coverage safety, and a TO/Jerry Rice WR and a QB that can take over the game.
This team could win the super bowl, but it would require the team building on the level of achievement it has plus:
1. Alex becomes the QB that can take over the game. We will have a very hard time against Dallas, Green Bay, New Orleans, Altanta, New York, or Philadelphia. All of those teams have QBs that are considered better than Alex and capable (on some level) of taking over the game.
2. Some combination of Edwards and Crabtree become game-breakers like Jerry and TO were. I realize our strength is in Vernon and Delanie, but having that WR that you must account for would make the 49ers’ passing game fearsome. Double cover the WR, then Vernon and Delanie are killing you in the middle of the field. Take your attention away from the WR and clog the middle, then the WR kills you with deep routes or short routes with YAC.
3. Rogers, Culliver, Brown and Spencer form a passing shutdown team. Several of the NFC teams I identified as our main threats are able to go 4 wide with quality WRs. If we can’t go to our dime package and match those guys man-for-man and give our dime rushers time to hit Rodgers, Brees, Ryan, Manning, Vick, and Romo, we’ll get shredded worse than Pittsburgh was during the last Super Bowl.
4. Goldson morphs into a great coverage safety capable of making QBs hesitate just long enough to take the sack. This would take our pass defense from respectable to elite (alone with point 3 above).
5. Aldon Smith and some combo of Brooks, Harralson, Bowman, Willis, Justin, and McDonald collectively make our rush top-notch without gambling away the field that elite QBs will exploit.
Jim Harbaugh doesn't just WANT winners, he MAKES them!
All of these are very possible, except #4.
It ain’t happening. Goldson has to go. A safety that would rather blow up a receiver after he catches the ball than to actually go and make a play on the ball. That’s a bad safety.
Affectionately,
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar,
NBA’s All-Time Leading Scorer
by afrikabamboodle on Oct 22, 2011 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions
What superbowl you want to win?
The Superbowl of all time? You want to have the best player of all time at every position? What team are we facing in this Superbowl?
We have the pieces, we have them all. Barring injury, we could make it there with what we have. That is, if Alex continues to improve on what he’s done so far.
I truely believe that.
What Rookie Linebacker Is Second Of All Linebackers In Sacks With 5.5, A Forced Fumble, And A Safety - All On Limited Playing Time?
THIS
Alex Smith Will Win a Superbowl
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Alex-Smith-Will-Win-a-Superbowl/205058042848290
Our team needs to be perfect?
I think the puzzle is coming together quite nicely. Our special teams is the best in the entire league, and our defense is among the top 3 (arguably the best) and is improving weekly. Our run game is looking more dangerous all the time and our passing game is showing consistency.
You don’t have to be perfect to win a Superbowl. Just have to match up well against your opponent and game-plan. And we seem to have the coaches for that. One Sunday at a time.
Alex Smith Will Win a Superbowl
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Alex-Smith-Will-Win-a-Superbowl/205058042848290
It's more than that
I identified our core weaknesses that will be our undoing in the playoffs. If we progress in all of those areas, absolutely, we could win the Super Bowl in 2011/2012.
Trust me. If we don’t have an answer for those areas in the playoffs, we’ll get exploited by Green Bay, Dallas, Philadelphia, New Orleans, and Atlanta. Or worse, we’ll make it to the Super Bowl and lose.
The 49ers do not lose Super Bowls. Either we go ready to win, or we don’t go at all (in my opinion).
Jim Harbaugh doesn't just WANT winners, he MAKES them!
I'll take a Super Bowl appearence this season
That would be awesome Win or Lose.
Not that I would want the 49ers to lose.
What Rookie Linebacker Is Second Of All Linebackers In Sacks With 5.5, A Forced Fumble, And A Safety - All On Limited Playing Time?
I disagree
Our 5-0 record is what sets us apart from Dallas, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, and New England. All of those teams won multiple Super Bowls. Pittsburgh has one more than Dallas, us, and Green Bay. But, we are the only one that has 5 and haven’t lost. Ever.
That’s a record of which I am extremely proud and if I dialogue about the greatest franchise with fans from one of those teams, I throw that stat in their face. It’s funny to see the defensive, spluttering reactions I get.
Jim Harbaugh doesn't just WANT winners, he MAKES them!
To me it's how far did you go this season
The past is gone. Get to the Super Bowl, then we’ll talk about winning it.
What Rookie Linebacker Is Second Of All Linebackers In Sacks With 5.5, A Forced Fumble, And A Safety - All On Limited Playing Time?
Yes
Speaking as a fan, I would rather lose in the NFC Championship game then get to the Superbowl and lose.
Alex Smith Will Win a Superbowl
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Alex-Smith-Will-Win-a-Superbowl/205058042848290
That's not a winning attitude
That an attitude of fear. We can’t go to the Super Bowl because we might lose the game. What’s the point of trying? If you get to the Super Bowl, you can win the Super Bowl. Plenty of underdogs have won the big one.
My favorite, the 2007 Giants in Super Bowl XLII.
What Rookie Linebacker Is Second Of All Linebackers In Sacks With 5.5, A Forced Fumble, And A Safety - All On Limited Playing Time?
I know wtheck.
What kind of person would prefer to protect a record than try to improve it? If you lose you’re 5-1 but hey, you made it to the title game. IF you really wanted to protect the 5-0 record… well just stop playing football and disband the 49ers.
Affectionately,
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar,
NBA’s All-Time Leading Scorer
by afrikabamboodle on Oct 22, 2011 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions
That's the thinking
I guess
What Rookie Linebacker Is Second Of All Linebackers In Sacks With 5.5, A Forced Fumble, And A Safety - All On Limited Playing Time?
Meh
I disagree, but it’s not a major point. I just think, if our team gets to the Superbowl, they win it. That’s what 49ers do. We don’t half ass our Superbowl appearances. We don’t get their and lose. Other teams do that. The Niners win Superbowls.
It’s a weird pride thing, I guess. But I can see both your points in disagreeing. Just how I view it.
Alex Smith Will Win a Superbowl
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Alex-Smith-Will-Win-a-Superbowl/205058042848290
Dallas, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, and New England
I disagree. What sets us apart from those teams is that every single one of them has not only appeared in, but also won at least one Super Bowl since 1995.
The 49ers haven’t.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Oct 22, 2011 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Or to put it another way...
I’d rather lose a Super Bowl this year than never get to another one and hold onto that perfect record.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Oct 22, 2011 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions
Dallas won it in 96
Drop them from the statement, one year does not help
by mcwagner on Oct 22, 2011 4:33 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I will not. It remains true.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Oct 22, 2011 5:27 PM PDT up reply actions
You missed my point
My point is, when the inevitable historical measurement of Super Bowl titles is bandied about by the great historical franchises of the NFL, what sets the 49ers apart is their unblemished, multi-title record.
I understand we haven’t appeared in the big dance since 1995 (1994 season). However, I am not satisfied with just “appearing.” I am proud that we are not one of the chumps when it comes to the big game. Trust me. This fact irritates Green Bay, Pittsburgh, New England, and Dallas fans.
Which would you rather have, several more super bowl appearances and to lose them all? Or to never appear again, but go down in history as the only multi-title team that never lost the big one.
The question is academic because we are going to go again…and win.
Jim Harbaugh doesn't just WANT winners, he MAKES them!
another point
I went to college in the Pittsburgh area. I can tell you that their first Super Bowl loss to Dallas in 1996 is a sore point among Steelers fans. Losing that perfect record hurt.
I only want us to go to the Super Bowl in 2012 if we can win it. Otherwise, I hope our weaknesses are exposed in the playoffs for the sole purpose of fixing them so that we can return next year and win it all.
Jim Harbaugh doesn't just WANT winners, he MAKES them!
I’d rather have the opportunity to win another. You can only get that by being there. Being undefeated means little to me. The Browns, Texans, Jaguars, and Lions are also all undefeated in the Super Bowl. Eventually, that becomes dubious company.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Oct 22, 2011 5:31 PM PDT up reply actions
This reminds me of the 83 season when the Niners were robbed in the NFC title game
Aided by two penalties on the 49ers – a phantom pass interference call on CB Eric Wright and defensive holding on Ronnie Lott (completely bogus)– Washington drove to the San Francisco 8 yard line in 13 plays, covering over six minutes. Moseley, who missed four three-point attempts during the game, booted the game-winning 25-yard field goal with 40 seconds remaining and the final score was 24-21 in favor of the Redskins. It’s just as well because the ‘Skins went on to lose the SB to the Raiders, and I always felt the Niners would have lost to that team also. So i was happy the Niners didn’t make it that year. I remember once being in the gift shop at Denver Airport and asking the clerk if they had any hats of that team that had lost 4 SBs. Ha ha.
Any NFL team that doesn't fear the Niners really don't know the deal.
And when's the last time a 3-4 had two inside guys who played all three downs?
I agree then.
Green Bay’s offense scares me enough that I do wonder if we can keep up if it turns into a legitimate shoot-out. Their defense has dropped off from last year. It was a big part of them getting to the Superbowl.
I still think, come year-end, the things you mentioned will be improved upon; as will our offense. We’re only 6 games into the season with a rookie head coach, new system, shortened off-season, etc., etc., etc., you’ve heard it before.
But the scary thing is we are playing really, really good football – good TEAM football – right NOW. If we improve in any of the areas you mentioned, on top of what we already have going, I think we’ll be the most complete team in the league.
Alex Smith Will Win a Superbowl
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Alex-Smith-Will-Win-a-Superbowl/205058042848290
Never fear, Underdog is here!
What Rookie Linebacker Is Second Of All Linebackers In Sacks With 5.5, A Forced Fumble, And A Safety - All On Limited Playing Time?
Are you nuts??????????????
This team is OVER ACHIEVING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hello, there is a new head coach, new offensive and defensive coordinator that had next to no time to get ready for this season.
It’s a small miracle they are 5-1 and it wouldn’t surprise me if there are set backs.
If you look at the big picture, it’s hard to argue that reality.
R train to Bay Ridge Brooklyn!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Our expectations should be high
I agree with all the scenarios you listed. If Smith wins a Superbowl, then he gets an awesome contract. Making it to the playoffs is not enough, nor is simply getting to the NFC Championship.
Why? Because our defense, special teams, running game, coaching staff, front office, etc., are all Superbowl-worthy. Alex needs to prove sooner rather than later that he is, too. Because the time to cash in on all this success is only a couple months away.
If Alex doesn’t deliver when it matters most, and get us to a Superbowl, there will be legitimate reasons to doubt his long-term viability.
Alex Smith Will Win a Superbowl
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Alex-Smith-Will-Win-a-Superbowl/205058042848290
Yup.
Alex’s problem used to be “he hasn’t had a fair shake because his coaches sucked, his support staffed sucked, etc.” Now his problem is “he’s got a great coach, he’s got the supporting cast, so he better not suck.” When Alex plays badly, it’s a result of bad teammates and bad coaching. When he plays well, it’s because teammates stepped up and the coaches did a good job. It’s never about AleX and his progression as a QB. He’ll always be over shadowed by everything else. Even if and when he wins a SB, it’ll be because his team was really good and he didn’t screw up. Not because he’s a damn good QB.
Affectionately,
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar,
NBA’s All-Time Leading Scorer
by afrikabamboodle on Oct 22, 2011 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions
Not because he’s a damn good QB.
He is though, that’s what makes me so angry. He’s playing at a pro Bowl level right now. I can trust him to take a game over against a high powered team. The numbers speak for themselves.
"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais
by MichaelClutchtree on Oct 22, 2011 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions
I feel the same way as well.
I’m young, I’ve never seen Joe and Steve play except in old high lights. Alex Smith is the best QB I have ever seen play for the 49ers. I hope one day Alex proves everyone wrong and the select few of us right. I hope people will let go of the past and let him play in a fair light. Don’t make excuses for his failures and don’t make excuses for his success either.
Affectionately,
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar,
NBA’s All-Time Leading Scorer
by afrikabamboodle on Oct 22, 2011 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions
sorry to hear that
Watching Joe, Rice, Taylor, Craig, and Rathman man those were the days, made suffering through th e70s worth it.
AS is not close to being Joe or steve, he is way too inconsistent. He has improved in leaps and bounds but it would take divine intervention for AS to
be at the same level as SY.
by colorado9erfan on Oct 22, 2011 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Haha why do people always respond with "sorry to hear that?"
In a way I have an advantage over some of the older 49er fans. Those who are used to watching Joe or Steve will never be content because there will never be another Joe or Steve. My mind is free of unreachable expectations :) I’ve watched Dilfer, Troy Smith, Shaun Hill, and J freaking T freaking O. AleX Smith is a stud! :D
Affectionately,
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar,
NBA’s All-Time Leading Scorer
by afrikabamboodle on Oct 22, 2011 2:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Pro Bowl is too strong
I think the better comparison is, he’s playing a pro-bowl-like level compared to the first 6 years of his career. That’s terrific and I am hopeful for more. But there’s no way he makes the Pro-Bowl without a serious stats upgrade and several games where he takes over.
Put another way, if the following straight up trades were offered today, would you take them?
Falcons: Alex Smith for Matt Ryan. I’d take that one.
Cowboys: Alex for Tony Romo. I’d take that one, on the provision that Harbaugh is capable of ironing out Tony’s late-game issues.
New York Giants: Alex for Eli Manning. This is a push, but I’d say Eli (right now) is better. Eli has what it takes to win, but he doesn’t look like a world-beater doing it. Maybe he’s the best model for Alex winning a Super Bowl?
New Orleans: Alex for Drew Brees. In a heartbeat.
Philadelphia: Alex for Michael Vick. No, but only because Vick is injury prone, and I worry about QB regression after leaving an Andy Reid offense (see Feeley, McNabb, and Kolb)
Jim Harbaugh doesn't just WANT winners, he MAKES them!
New Orleans: Alex for Drew Brees. In a heartbeat.
Really? Alex’s record is 5-1, Brees’ is 4-2. Maybe you should rethink that
"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais
by MichaelClutchtree on Oct 22, 2011 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions
You honestly believe Alex is better than Brees based upon 6 games this year?
With respect, I think you should re-think what you’re saying.
Jim Harbaugh doesn't just WANT winners, he MAKES them!
Perhaps Mr. Clutchtree
Has had the epiphany that life is more enjoyable when you choose to focus on the positive, rather than the negative. It takes just as much work to be miserable as it does to be happy. The trick lies in what one emphasizes. I think it’s great if Michael sees Alex’s upside and chooses to enjoy it.
Any NFL team that doesn't fear the Niners really don't know the deal.
And when's the last time a 3-4 had two inside guys who played all three downs?
I hope he's being sarcastic.
But it’s hard to tell.
There are certainly plenty of people on this board who have used win-loss record as a QB statistic in situations that were just as absurd, and not meant it at all sarcastically.
I'll take Alex over Romo
Romo is too inconsistent. He’ll throw it away just to try and prove a point. Alex is smarter than Tony.
I’ll take Eli over Alex. I think Eli would be infinitely better on this team with Harbaugh. Could you imagine what Harbaugh could do with Eli if he did this much with Alex?
What Rookie Linebacker Is Second Of All Linebackers In Sacks With 5.5, A Forced Fumble, And A Safety - All On Limited Playing Time?
Program him then.
What Rookie Linebacker Is Second Of All Linebackers In Sacks With 5.5, A Forced Fumble, And A Safety - All On Limited Playing Time?
by Pat Willie on Oct 22, 2011 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
neither did Joe
fortunately for Joe, he didn’t look like he had Downs Syndrome…
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 22, 2011 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions
hahahahaha
Alex Smith Will Win a Superbowl
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Alex-Smith-Will-Win-a-Superbowl/205058042848290
How about this.......
STILL this is only his 1st year in this offense.
R train to Bay Ridge Brooklyn!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
...and with NO off-season mini-camps, NO off-season OTAs, a new center, a new FB, 2
of his top 3 WRs missing significant time (and one of those new to the team), a “new” RG… I predict this “O” will only get better and better….
After all was said and done, a lot more got said than done.
Alex Smith will win the Super Bowl this season and is quickly on his way to a Hall Of Fame career.
"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais
by MichaelClutchtree on Oct 22, 2011 1:50 PM PDT reply actions
I would be thrilled if you are proven correct!
Let’s just win against Cleveland next week. Then the week after…etc. The 49ers aren’t good enough to expect Super Bowl appearances yet. I would rather expect a Super Bowl appearance after a quality playoff win against a team that is supposed to beat us.
Patience. One step at a time…
Jim Harbaugh doesn't just WANT winners, he MAKES them!
:-0
“Chill”…
Good advice I think.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Where it all changed
Video of Alex Smith singing to Harbaugh
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZnhuOEUFXA
I give more credit to AleX’s grit than Harbaugh teaching him something profound that he never knew in 6 years of being in the NFL. Harbaugh believed in him and that was all that Smith needed. Wait to see when he takes the leash off. Let Kaep watch and learn. The best thing Harbs has done was bring an attitude to the bay.
I think there is still too much unknown with Alex. Yes we’ve seen some good things, and it’s inarguable he’s having the best start to a season of his career. We’ve seen a change in his personality and he’s enjoying the game more. However, there are a lot of games left, and I want to see how he does against good defenses like Washington and Baltimore before we declare anything about his future.
If he falls off the wagon it’s a moot point. He’ll move on. If the team makes it to the playoffs and decide to let Kaepernick develop some more, I would be surprised if he signed a one-year deal. I wouldn’t be shocked to see them put the franchise tag on Alex. Give him another season to see if he can do it again. If he continues to improve, I could see a long term deal at that point. I really doubt that after this season they’ll consider a long-term deal UNLESS they actually do win it all
The Baltimore Ravens
let their quarterback go after winning the Super Bowl for a back-up. Maybe nothing saves him.
Who was the coach of that team?
What Rookie Linebacker Is Second Of All Linebackers In Sacks With 5.5, A Forced Fumble, And A Safety - All On Limited Playing Time?
Anyone see NFLN coverage of that game?
Billick was furious because Dilfer was missing opportunities. Billick wanted him to be PERFECT.
The crazy thing about having a “game manager” is you can actually do worse. Don’t take success for granted in the NFL.
TGWTWS...there isn't much else that needs to be said
Billick: Good administrator...
….but WAY, WAY overrated as an offensive “guru.”
I think history shows that Denny Green was chiefly responsible for the success Billick’s offenses had in Minnesota.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions
Not sure about Alex.... just yet
He had me concerned in that Lions game, showed some happy feet and, threw to many high passes. However, he came through in the clutch for a TD.
I have see a bit more, but there is no question this season Alex is an improvement over past seasons, but Alex still needs to be even better
Alex Smith is our quarterback
I think Alex is a lot tougher than most given him credit for. He suffered through years of terrible coaching and fans turning on him yet he persevered through it all. That tenacity I think will continue to give him the strength to overcome any of the nitpicking and doubting people are doing. He hasn’t lost us any games with his play this year, but instead has lead us to at least 3 victories in the final quarter and people are still complaining about his stats!? come on… Any rookie or unproven QB coming in may have the skills to be as good or better, but do they have that mental toughness? At this point I’d say any of the names thrown out there to replace Alex have not proven it.
by NinerOptimus on Oct 22, 2011 2:39 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Good Point
What Rookie Linebacker Is Second Of All Linebackers In Sacks With 5.5, A Forced Fumble, And A Safety - All On Limited Playing Time?
Heck Yes
Like I said in another thread, the guy has balls the size of Gibraltar.
After everything he’s been through in his NFL career, what could any opposing team possibly due to Alex to phase him?
To me, #11 is destined to be as clutch as they come.
Alex Smith Will Win a Superbowl
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Alex-Smith-Will-Win-a-Superbowl/205058042848290
I certainly think that Harbaugh knows better than we fans
It was fans two years ago who begged for Alex to be put in a spread offense, thinking that was the only/best way for him to be successful. Raye/Sing did that and Alex produced many yards – and many turnovers – in a .500 season. Now he’s finding success in the type of offense that many fans hated the idea of having here. Yes, it’s far more creative than the past two seasons, but it’s not a spread offense, nor is it the pass heavy offense that Martz used in ‘08. Alex is being limited in a way that has bothered fans when the record was poorer.
Harbaugh obviously knows Alex’s limitations and is highlighting his strengths. I suspect he’s also trying to find which areas of both he can help Alex improve upon. There’s certainly room for growth, and for this team to reach full potential, the QB will have to lead them. I believe that we will know by the end of the season just how far Alex has come, both in this system and as his own QB, to know what the future holds for him in SF. At that time, JH will also know whether he wants to continue on with Alex or go in a younger direction.
- Thank you SF Giants for an incredible 2010 season and painting the City orange & black!
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
by SpurredOn on Oct 22, 2011 2:53 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
lol
If I knew how to properly click the rec button…
If I only had a brain….
Fooch, didn’t mean to flag. Please feel free to fix it if you have time.
Jim Harbaugh doesn't just WANT winners, he MAKES them!
you rec'd him
give yourself some credit. I don’t know about Fooch’s powers, but we can’t change flags or recs. They are yours to give.
Watch some games
Alex still performs best out of the shotgun formation.
It spreads out the defense limiting the amount of blitz reads he has to make, it allows him to read the coverage sooner, and behind this offensive line it gives him more time to make the throw.
+1
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions
That description makes him a liability
It sounds like a rookie QB who can only make a first and second read. Perhaps that’s what he is. But that would mean that he was more the problem the past two years instead of play calling. It would also mean that his best formation is the worst for this offense’s strength.
- Thank you SF Giants for an incredible 2010 season and painting the City orange & black!
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Most QBs prefer throwing from the gun...
It has it’s limitations, but it makes a lot of things easier for ALL QBs, not just Alex.
Why the heck do you thick nearly every football team in America uses it?
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 6:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Bill Walsh didn't like it
And Montana didn’t utilize it, nor did Young.
As for why teams use it now? Because most teams have better WR talent than they do RB talent. And because it’s an easier passing read for inexperienced QBs.
- Thank you SF Giants for an incredible 2010 season and painting the City orange & black!
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
That's not true
Montana wasn’t comfortable with it. Walsh used it early in 1987 during the early part of the regular season (pointless to argue this, I’ve got it on tape). Walsh wanted to implement it, Montana could never get comfortable with it. It was merely a tool in the tool bag to Walsh. Not inherently “good” or “bad”.
Under center is preferred for many reasons, NONE OF WHICH have to do with “READING”. You are DEAD WRONG about that. It’s easier to SEE from the shotgun for a lot of QBs, the “READS” don’t change at all.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 10:32 PM PDT up reply actions
I recall a interview many years back where Walsh expressed that he preferred not using the shotgun as it added more yards for the QB’s throw to travel. I thought at the time that was an interesting way of looking at the formation. You’ll note that Young also did not use it. I don’t doubt that Walsh may have tried it a time or two just to put it on film or see how his QBs did with it but it was not a staple of his NFL offense, even after his departure.
- Thank you SF Giants for an incredible 2010 season and painting the City orange & black!
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
It's easier to SEE from SHOTGUN; harder to TIME...
You get a better look at the Defense as you drop from the gun (harder to see leftside of the field, for a right-handed QB, as you drop from under center). Trade-off is the D typically has a better idea that you’re going to pass.
Timing is easier from under center. 3 step routes, ball is hopefully out when your plant foot hits, if not you use a hang-step and look at #2, then take off or throw it away. 5-quick, ball is out when your plant foot hits, or hitch and look at #2, hitch and check it down, then take off. 5 and 7 step, get back, hitch and look at #1, hitch to #2, check it down, get out of dodge.
The depth of routes is correlated to the drops as is the clock in your head. Not only do you THROW the ball on time, but you know when to HIT EJECT and get out of the pocket. It’s all correlated to your drops and footwork.
You also have the opportunity to be far more effective and creative using playaction from under center than playaction from the gun. The screen and draw game also works better from under center.
Lots more stuff… It’s definitely harder, but I alway preferred it. I also enjoy watching the game played from under center more.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 24, 2011 2:42 AM PDT up reply actions
I think it's a couple of things.
I think that as players have gotten bigger you need to spread the field more to have passing and running lanes. Whereas in the ‘80s, if you wanted to run you bunch all your big guys up and ran behind them, now it seems like teams have more success with runs based on misdirection. There just isn’t as much space as there used to be.
But adding a layer of misdirection also means that the slowly developing nature of shotgun runs is less of a problem.
And that affects sightlines, too, for QBs.
It’s not just one factor.
Athleticism of edge pass rushers...
These guys are so LONG and CRAZY FAST/STRONG anymore…
The gun’s employed in part simply to give QBs a better look/more immediate speration against pass rushers that just get bigger/stronger/faster every year.
The bigger aspect of spreading the field is simply GETTING PEOPLE OUT OF THE BOX by formation. Why block ’em if you can get them out of there simply by forcing them to the perimeter via formation. You also force them to more clearly declare what coverage they are in, and you limit the fronts they can employ.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 24, 2011 2:50 AM PDT up reply actions
Wait, so by "Cut Him Lose!" you mean cut him and lose? Because losing definitely sounds like a reasonable outcome if they cut him.
…lurn two spel
Bandwagoners are the prostitutes of fandom.
i'm intrigued
by what would happen with another year. Maicco posted a fascinating quote from Urban Meyer, when Alex was drafted, saying Alex is completely useless when he doesn’t know what to do in a situation. but once he understands what the system calls for him to do, he becomes superb. It seems like part of Alex’s growth this year is due to Harbaugh teaching him exactly what to do in each situation of the offense. I would love to see what a second year, and a full offseason would do to that.
"Alex is balling. He’s balling out." - Frank Gore
http://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/2011/10/inside-the-49ers/greg-cosell-on-alex-smith-and-carson-palmer/
Here’s what they’re doing with Alex Smith, and he’s a great guy, so none of this is ever personal, but they’re playing the games to minimize his impact on the game. And they’re able to win games doing that, so more power to Harbaugh and the coaching staff. They’re doing absolutely the right thing. I’m reading a lot of people talk about now Alex Smith is proving….Look. This is what they’re doing. They’re trying to hide him. They’re trying to minimize his impact on the game. And that’s great. Do you know what that’s called? Coaching.
This guy is a damn hater. Smith is playing Pro Bowl level football right now.
"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais
by MichaelClutchtree on Oct 22, 2011 4:44 PM PDT reply actions
I found his portrayal of Alex to be insulting too. While I don’t agree with you that Alex is playing at a pro-bowl level (yet), I do agree with you that Cosell is selling Alex too short. If Alex is as bad as Cosell thinks he is, there is absolutely no way Alex could have led the team to 5-1. I don’t think Cosell is as objective as he thinks he is. Surprise. A human being not truly being objective.
I think Cosell should re-examine his “film” for confirmation bias. Just my take.
Anyway, the truth, as always, is somewhere in the middle.
Jim Harbaugh doesn't just WANT winners, he MAKES them!
i also found it insulting
i strongly disagree that they’re trying to minimize Alex’s impact. I think they’re doing two things that give that illusion:
1) they’re playing to their strengths. That’s not the same as trying to minimize Alex. They’re running game is phenomenal (as of late). They’re defense and special teams are top-5 in the league. They should play to those strengths.
2) They progressing slowly based on shortened offseason. when you learn a new scheme/get a new head coach, the passing game is going to be the last thing that is fully learned/understood. the defense and the run game have been ahead of the passing game from day 1, not just because they’re a strong suit, but because they were more fully understood in that short offseason. I think, every week so far, we’ve seen more out of the passing game, in terms of plays, complexity, schematics, etc.
In short, I think it’s ridiculous to posit that the team is “minimizing” alex’s impact: rather, they understand that when you have a team that is dominant in the running game, special teams, and defense, and a passing game that had 4 weeks of offseason, throwing the ball deep 25 times a game may not be the best idea.
I personally think that, in this era of football, you can’t go 5-1 if you’re “minimizing” the impact of your QB.
"Alex is balling. He’s balling out." - Frank Gore
by bradyk2 on Oct 22, 2011 5:20 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
yikes, spelling failure
sorry for the erroneous "they’re"’s when "their"’s were called for.
"Alex is balling. He’s balling out." - Frank Gore
They’re defense and special teams are top-5 in the league. They should play to those strengths.
How does not having your QB throw a lot reflect the defense at all?
"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais
by MichaelClutchtree on Oct 22, 2011 6:25 PM PDT up reply actions
They did play to minimize Alex Smith for close to four games, though. They did.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Oct 22, 2011 5:33 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
ABSOLUTELY ACCURATE. 100%.
(disputing this “outs” a person as to their lack of sophistication and knowledge of the game; harsh assessement — I know — but it’s true)
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 10:37 PM PDT up reply actions
No he's not. Not yet...
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Alex Smith is not a franchise QB
Amnesia anyone? Just because Coach Harbaugh has given Alex some tips on how not to lose a game, does not make the guy a winner. I for one do not want to watch a team that has to depend entirely on its defense to win. I grew up watching Montana and Young. I got the chance to meet both of them. My bar was set pretty high for QB expectations. So yeah, I felt sorry for guys like Bono and Grbac and onto Rattay and Hill, but never once did I ever want to settle for them as a reliable option. Even Garcia, as exciting and gutsy as he was, just wasnt a person I could see counting on year after year. How Alex keeps getting second chances is beyond me. I am enjoying the winning but not enjoying the average QB play. Anyone who thinks he is legitimately a ProBowl candidate probably thinks Tim Tebow is just a tweak or two from a top tier Quarterback.
by FiveAlarmFreddy on Oct 22, 2011 4:48 PM PDT reply actions
glasses too thick? maybe you haven't watched the games?
Did you watch the Eagles game, where Smith was 9-9 for 170 some yards and a TD in 1 qt, and led this team back from a huge deficit. I grew up watching Montana and Young too, but they don’t play no more, so I live in the here and now.
by ericalancanty on Oct 22, 2011 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions
I just don't get it...
Bragging about a guy where you need to slice and dice his performances to find a sliver of positive play. Yeah, I am completely aware of the fact Montana and Young are no longer playing, but in “the here and now” there are great Quarterbacks, decent Quarterbacks, serviceable Quarterbacks and those Quarterbacks with potential who can and will give you better numbers than Alex Smith…. for a whole game!
Apart from that, how did you like the play Mrs. Lincoln?
by FiveAlarmFreddy on Oct 22, 2011 8:30 PM PDT up reply actions
those Quarterbacks with potential who can and will give you better numbers than Alex Smithand until you find a way to get one of those, let's stick with Alex. Alex is, by all accounts, at least a mediocre QB. that means there are maybe 16 QBs better than him, if you want to not give Smith much credit. Thing is, none of those 16 QBs are available. And none of them will be available after the season. and the only QB in the draft surely better will be taken #1. and by the time Kaepernick is ready to be a star, Justin Smith and Frank Gore will be retiring, and we will have missed the primes of Patrick Willis and Vernon Davis.
"Alex is balling. He’s balling out." - Frank Gore
Joe Montana thinks Tebow's perahps a couple of tweaks away from greatness...
But then again, what the f*** does he know about it?
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions
For those who don't pay attention....
Smith has had a QB rating of above 80 for the last 2 and a half years….
He hasn’t been this crap QB….He has better stats than Carson Palmer and Matt Hasselbeck……and I don’t mean this year…talking about the last few years.
Smith is just 6 games into, yet another offense and seems to be doing well.
For as bad as the running game and O-line in the first 3 games….Smith is the only reason they didn’t start the season 0-3
i believe ted ginn would like a word with you
"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais
by MichaelClutchtree on Oct 22, 2011 6:26 PM PDT up reply actions
Tedd Ginn didn't "bail us out"
as people like to say. we were leading when he scored, coming after a scoring drive, and followed it up with two consecutive 3 and outs on defense. Ginn gave us breathing room, not a W.
"Alex is balling. He’s balling out." - Frank Gore
silly post
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions
funny thing about Alex, when he NEEDS to make the play...
a majority of the time this season, he has.
But he does not play 4 quarters of “take the opposition apart” football. Alex goes in spurts, not a fine tuned humming maching, yet.
That's most QBS
Tom Brady looked like crap last week before doing anything. P. Manning looked like crap most of the season a few years ago. Elite QBs are rarely on for 4 Qtrs.
Politicians are like diapers. They both need changing regularly and for the same reason.
By the way....anyone think Crabtree is a sure fire #1 type WR?
from what you have seen of him from the day he was drafted to now.
Is he a legit #1 nfl type WR, or closer to a teams #2 type WR.
Chime In….what ya think?
below avg #1 / above avg #2
average speed and athleticism for a WR
unreliable hands, but can make spectacular catches
above average YAC ability
the thing that hurts him the most is that Alex seems to never be on the same page with him, whether it is high throws or complete miscommunication
He's a #2
His YAC ability is decent, but the moves he uses to gain an extra 5-7 yards prevent him from making big plays. The little “spin and run a circle” might get him by the first guy but it gives the other 3-4 guys within 10-15 yards time to close and bring him down. In this league you have to make a cut and go.
Balls
That’s what Alex has. Just about any other QB would have been booed out of town with his tail between his legs by now. He is extremely tough and extremely motivated and obviously believes in himself. He is a hard worker who has never tried to pass the buck. Alex has always accepted that it is his responsibility to improve. He is intelligent, responsible and willing to put in the reps and do whatever is asked of him. To my mind, these are the things you want from a leader. As for the future, don’t forget that Harbaugh only took Kaep because Tolzien wasn’t available. When I was watching that San Diego game in the pre-season, I found myself wishing Tolzien was on our team. Joy of joys, when he became available, the Niners snapped him up. I wouldn’t assume anything. That kid (Tolzien) has an arm and is perhaps better suited to the WCO as far as previous coaching goes. If Alex is able to unlearn some sloppy habits with his footwork, I think he could actually become great, and I wish him success. Regardless, I trust Harbaugh will, as always, do whatever gives us the best chance to win.
Any NFL team that doesn't fear the Niners really don't know the deal.
And when's the last time a 3-4 had two inside guys who played all three downs?
Uhhh...
don’t forget that Harbaugh only took Kaep because Tolzien wasn’t available.
He wasnt even drafted…
by FiveAlarmFreddy on Oct 22, 2011 8:35 PM PDT up reply actions
You're right. Darn heck. Wrong again.
I guess I had this quote from Harbaugh floating in my head, influencing my perception of reality.
“I liked him in the eleven on eleven from college, a winner. I liked his mind. I liked how smart he was. I liked him when I went to the combine and there was nobody out on the field yet, but he came out early and was out there throwing the ball around. He was there every day throwing to the backs or to the receivers. He was there on the quarterback’s day. He was always the first one out of the locker room just throwing balls, must have been for four to five hours. That’s what I noticed first, what I first noticed, first really liked. Liked his tape, liked the way he gets the ball out quick. Liked the way he played against us the other night. Wanted to sign him, thinking hard about drafting him in the draft and then he was a priority free agent signing for us, but we weren’t able to get it done. We got him now.”
Any NFL team that doesn't fear the Niners really don't know the deal.
And when's the last time a 3-4 had two inside guys who played all three downs?
...and what DOESN'T Harbaugh say in all that stuff?
He doesn’t ONCE mention ANYTHING that he likes about Tolzien physically. Not his movement, not his arm strength, not his accuracy, not his size, etc. NOTHING. N-O-T-H-I-N-G.
Come to think of it, I don’t know that I’ve EVER heard ANY 49ers coach say they like ANYTHING about Tolzien other than his intangibles and how accurately he threw the ball against them in the Chargers game (which is DIFFERENT than saying he’s an ACCURRATE passer).
Go prove me wrong web-surfers. Go to it…
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 10:44 PM PDT up reply actions
this Tolzien nonsense is hysterical
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions
0 300 yard games, there hasnt been a SB winning qb without it since 2000. We need one of those qbs. Its not alex.
He’s gotta put up better numbers!
Leggoooo!!!
Why?
Why does he NEED to put up a 300 yard game? I think he has the potential to do that, there just isn’t a need to right now. The running game is great, special teams are the best in the league, and the defense is shutting people down. Why throw the ball more than the team needs, or even attempt the deeper throws? To make fans and analysts happy is not a good answer.
Think about it, once you face a playoff caliber defense with a handicapped offense, you will always be at the drawing board the next year and constantly coming up short.
Hey go ahead and settle for a playoff berth, I don’t see any SB potential with Alex at the Helm unless we plan on drafting defense for the next few seasons and keeping the team in tact. Young teams don’t stay young. He has Martzsyndrome!!
Leggoooo!!!
Completely disagree with you
With the type of ball controlling offense the niners are currently playing, there just isn’t as many opportunities or reason to have a three hundred yard game. Limited possessions means fewer yards overall. If we are so far down that we have to throw to get back into the game then Alex will have to put up those kind of numbers. Which, I believe he can and has done so.
by NinerOptimus on Oct 23, 2011 12:35 AM PDT up reply actions
Really?
So all those overthrown passes, the lack of leadership, the inability to string together successful games… all that can and will — POOF! disappear when Alex really wants to start playing for real. Ha Ha!
by FiveAlarmFreddy on Oct 23, 2011 7:26 PM PDT up reply actions
Deep throws make defenses respect you. The cowboys didn't and you seen the results.
That’s the only good defense we have faced all year and their weakness is their secondary. Great scheme but horrible secondary.
Leggoooo!!!
The loss to the Cowboys was not due to the fact Alex didn't throw for X number of yards
The break down in the defense and that one horrible call that extended the cowboys touchdown drive lost us that game.
Yes deep throws make the Defense play out of the box and keep the safeties back, but so does having a legitimate deep threat receiver. You have to at least admit the fact that for a QB to have great numbers you need great receiver(s) on the other end to make it happen. So far we had a few glimpse of that from our receivers but nothing consistent. If Braylon or Crabtree steps up I think you’ll see some better numbers from Alex.
by NinerOptimus on Oct 23, 2011 12:43 AM PDT up reply actions
The offense did not lose that game IMO. The Niners were winning that game till the end, and the D let them down in OT, the worst time for a collapse. I stand by the fact the running game is doing just fine without needing to go deep on passes.
Nor was the Dallas loss a question of respect.
The defense fell apart in the second half.
In the first OT possession, Ted Ginn ran a route just short of the sticks – that’s a receiver error – and then bobbled the ball when Smith hit him in the breadbasket – another receiver error – on a key third down. We punted and a defensive back then committed a pop-warner-league mistake my looking into the backfield trying to guess the play rather than cover his man.
Looking further at that last drive, though, reveals that the notion that lack of respect for the deep ball was the problem is absurd.
First down, Alex Smith throws a 12-yard completion.
Then Gore runs for 7 yards.
Then Smith is sacked – their d-line was eating up our offensive line in base packages. Not Smith’s fault, nor a lack of respect.
Then Ginn screwed up.
Punt.
You can blame the line (who was having a horrible game) or you can blame Ginn, if you want to blame the offense. You can not blame a “lack of respect” for the deep ball.
But in any event, our defense only forced one punt in the second half. Their last three drives were TD, FG, FG (and the FG was taken on an early down in easy TD range – in most situations they go for the TD there). For a team that’s supposed to have a good defense, that’s unacceptable – and you can’t blame the offense for it.
Dallas made plays; the Defense did NOT "fall apart"
Respect the opponent when it’s due…
Romo balled his a$$ off and the 49ers STILL WIN THAT GAME if dude doesn’t bang home the tying 49-yarder with 0:00 left.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, the big play in OT was absolutely, positively a case of the D falling apart.
I’d have to go back and look at it again, but I felt like our DBs were just struggling in the 4th quarter, unable to keep up with their receivers.
But the OT pass wasn’t “balling” – it was a dumb, dumb mistake by a defensive back, giving Romo a wide-open receiver down the field.
;D... Blown coverage, absolutely. "Falling apart" though...
No way. I look at “falling apart” as something resulting from players not being able to handle the moment. Mistakes being made because the stage was too large, etc. Not the case vs Dallas.
Dallas was very good. Romo had to make a number of very clutch throws on two straight drives. He nearly got sacked on a number of plays. He kept getting back up after repeated hard hits.
Like I said, it took a long FG w/0:00 on the clock just to tie the game. We could have done things differently, both calling different plays as well as executing on the field, etc… Mistakes were definitely made but no one one fell apart that day.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 6:20 PM PDT up reply actions
Game should have never went to OT. Sometimes the offense has to close out the game with an extended drive or points.
The Run was pretty much stopped and the offense couldn’t produce, hence the beginning statement I made. I want Alex to succeed, but I don’t expect it. based on what I have seen, we can’t put a good defensive team away with offense.
Leggoooo!!!
Detroit was put away with offense...
Yes, the D held them twice as well… Team game, blahblahblah. Point is, Alex Smith threw the GW TD on 4th down w/less than 2 minutes on the clock.
And TB was put away early with offense (and defense)…
And PHI was defeated by an offense (and defense) that rallied from 20 down in the 3rd Q.
W/what you’ve seen, you SHOULD HAVE SOME HOPE for Alex. It’s not a “sure” thing at this point, no, but he’s definitely doing things he’s never done before.
Your logic is confusing to me…
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 10:50 PM PDT up reply actions
The offense couldn't sustain a drive late in the game. The defense held up for a long time.
The offense has a job whether it has a lead or not. a 3 and out is an offensive failure with the lead or not.
Leggoooo!!!
This is an artifact of another problem
It’s the same as the tired old misconception “This team is 15-0 when RB Generic has 25 touches!”
It isn’t that giving the RB that many touches led to winning the game, but rather winning the game led to giving that RB that many touches.
To win the Super Bowl you need to do two things with some success — pass the ball efficiently and prevent the other team from doing so.
If you are one of the best defenses of all time (read: 2000 Ravens) you don’t have to pass the ball efficiently. But it’s much harder to put together that type of defense than the corresponding offense with the rules currently in place.
Ben Roethlisberger doesn't put up gaudy stats
and he has more super rings than drew brees, phillip rivers, peyton manning, Eli manning etc etc…
I just want Alex to play like Ben Roethlisberger, just win when we need him to win and bring me home some rings!
Big Ben's career stats will be PLENTY gaudy when all's said and done
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions
I am a Harbaugh supporter..
So who ever he has got behind center that’s who I’m going for.. Because hands down..everyone he brought in from the draft, free agency, and veterans already there are playing pretty damn good.. We can’t officially give Alex a fair shot of evaluation without a proper playoff game to watch.. If he wins one of those,I don’t think anyone will question bringing him back next year..
by pigskin slapper on Oct 22, 2011 11:17 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
I think everyone on here likes Harbaugh
no one is calling for him to be fired. yet
"Hi my name is Cliff Harris and I am here to lock [site decorum] down" - Cliff Harris introduction at his Freshman Orientation
Reporter : "What do you remember about the BCS title game"
Cliff Harris: "That we lost"
"Stopping the run doesn't come because of scheme. It come because of want to." - Donte Whitner
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When Jim Harbaugh says "more is more" I think he is trying to say Moore is more.
He Deserves Another Year...
I have always been a supporter of Alex Smith, and it seems as if he has always been one of the sport’s medias favorite whipping boys. Alex had a good year under Norv Turner and I think if he doesn’t bolt to be a mediocre head coach at San Diego the next year we are not even having this conversation and Alex would have already silenced critics. He was thrown under the bus by two coaches who refused to make half time adjustments and called way too conservative offenses. Alex never pubicly complained (at least to my knowledge) about playcalling or the revolving door at offensive coordinator, and took less money to stay and prove to 49er fans that he is down for this team and his teammates, always acting with class and no excuses. It is awesome to see him be what some of us knew he could be, although I figured it would be on another team. I don’t think many quartebacks would have been successful with that many different offenses thrown in every year and starting as a rookie on one of the worst teams in the league with absolutely no protection. He has taken a beating for years and continues to tough it out. Hopefully he’s finally comfortable and will pay dividends for us in the end.
+1
Alex won’t sign w/the 49ers for less than 3 years and better money. Period. If he regresses and plays to a level where he WOULD take a 1-year deal, WE WON’T WANT HIM ANYWAY.
He’s probably looking for 4 or 5 years if he continues to play well.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 10:52 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm literally baffled by the people who want to get rid of Alex.
If you want to get rid of Alex, at least have the stones to admit that he’s exceeded your expectations for him already, by a large margin. Strange how that doesn’t buy him more rope with you.
I’m also confused by people who are eager for Kaepernick. None of us have any idea of how good Kaepernick is going to be. Maybe he’s going to prove he deserves to start, maybe as early as next year.
Maybe he’s never going to put it together.
Neither of those outcomes would shock me.
You can’t assume that Kaepernick is going to be an above-average QB (which Alex Smith is right now) based on his draft position. The Harbaugh factor? THe Niners under Walsh drafted five non-Montana QBs. None were second round picks, true, but let’s not pretend great coach = great QB by default.
The people who want to throw Kaepernick in...
Are probably the same ones who wanted to replace A.S. with Nate Davis…
by ColoradoNiner on Oct 23, 2011 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions
Could we all just agree to NEVER...
…talk about Nate Davis again? As in ever.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 10:54 PM PDT up reply actions
How is Smith above average? he is the SAME QB he has always been, he just has a better staff around him.
Still over throwing WR’s, still inconsistent throwing down the sideline, and still has happy feet when stepping up in the pocket.
Leggoooo!!!
Are you watching these games?
He’s improving a lot.
His poor performance — CIN — he didn’t turn it over and he made plays on a late 4th Q drive to close out a win.
His “off day” vs Detroit? Gamewinner on 4th down w/less than 2 minutes to go.
Yeah, he’s got a HELLUVA LOT LEFT TO PROVE. No argument. But why isn’t your mind open to just SEEING WHAT HAPPENS? The 49ers are 5-1 and he’s leading the way.
Everything you typed — “Still over throwing WR’s, still inconsistent throwing down the sideline, and still has happy feet when stepping up in the pocket” — he’s improved in ALL THOSE AREAS.
He needs to prove he can be consistent week-to-week like the upper echelon QBs, but NO QB is perfect every week. They ALL make the same mistakes you describe from time-to-time. Playing football’s HARD, brother… Especially QB.
I have many leather-bound books.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Oct 23, 2011 11:01 PM PDT up reply actions
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