So I have been getting into DVOA a lot recently (Not that I really understand any of it) and have been really impressed. If you were to make predictions for the weeks upcoming games based strictly on DVOA ranking you would do really well. DVOA predicted the 49ers over the Eagles and Bucs and Lions, when many of the experts thought otherwise.
Needless to say I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the Browns game using DVOA.
Total DVOA has the 49ers ranked 3rd while the Browns are ranked 25th
Offensively the 49ers are ranked 17th while the Browns are ranked 29th
Defensively the 49ers are ranked 4th while the Browns are ranked 14th
Special Teams the 49ers are ranked 1st with the Browns ranked 23rd
So head to head this seems like a nightmare match-up for the Browns. But believe it or not it actually gets worse. The Browns are 3-3 and according to DVOA they haven't played anyone near the level of the 49ers. The Browns have played the Bengals, Colts, Dolphins, Titans, Raiders, and Seahawks.
Which means they have played the 12th, 31st, 29th, 17th, 18th, and 27th ranked teams according to total DVOA. Again we're 3rd.
On offense the browns have faced the 7th, 32nd, 27th, 23rd, 22nd, and 12th ranked defenses. Again we're 4th. If you break it down into passing and rushing defenses it looks like this.
The Browns have had to pass against the 6th, 32nd, 26th, 27th, 22nd, and 21st ranked passing defenses. We are ranked 7th.
The Browns have had to rush against the 10th, 30th, 24th, 12th, 17th, and 4th ranked rushing defenses. We are ranked 2nd.
On Defense the Browns have faced only one passing attack better than ours Titans ranked 7th (32nd ranked rushing offense) while we are ranked 11th. And only one rushing attack better than ours Raiders ranked 6th (18th ranked passing offense) while we are ranked 13th. Both teams beat the Browns to boot.
So in conclusion. The Browns are traveling to San Francisco to play the best offensive, defensive, and special teams, team the have faced all year. And the closest team to the 49ers that they have beaten are the Seahawks and they are 24 spots below us in the ranking.
I know games aren't played on paper but I would be shocked if this one ends up a loss.