Football Outsiders Playoffs Odds: 49ers Second Best In NFL

by David Fucillo on Oct 4, 2011 4:30 PM PDT in San Francisco 49ers News

During football season, there are times I believe in jinxes and times I try to talk myself out of believing in them. This is one pattern I'll continue to roll with until proven otherwise. For the past two weeks I've posted about the Football Outsiders playoff odds. For the past two weeks the 49ers have won. I don't think I need to explain why I will continue to post the playoff odds.

Football Outsiders released their latest playoff odds and they have the 49ers holding the second best odds in the NFL at 89.1%. The 49ers sit second to the Green Bay Packers (92.8%). Thanks to the truly awful nature of the NFC West, winning back-to-back road non-division games has put the 49ers in an excellent position. There is plenty of time for them to join the Red Sox and blow huge playoff chances, but the numbers say what they say for now.

For those wondering how FO determines their odds, they reflect FO running the season 10,000 times. Wins and losses are assigned using a combination of DAVE ratings for each team and home field advantage in every single game to come up with odds following each week.

FO also released their latest DVOA ratings, which now reflect opponent adjustments (added in after week four every year). The 49ers rank 11th in Total DVOA. They are second on special teams, seventh on defense and No. 23 on offense. The 49ers offense did enough to get the W in the second half of the Eagles game, but the DVOA does reflect the inconsistencies we've seen at times. However, I think the offensive DVOA will rise as the season moves along and the game-planning and execution continues to develop.

Team	Rec	DAVE	Mean Ws	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	DIV	BYE	WC	TOT	CHANGE
SF	3-1	6.1%	9.8	7.4%	15.4%	22.1%	43.4%	0.2%	0.7%	88.3%	22.8%	0.9%	89.1%	14.4%
ARI	1-3	-13.6%	6.1	0.0%	0.2%	0.8%	6.1%	0.3%	1.1%	7.0%	0.2%	1.4%	8.4%	-11.2%
SEA	1-3	-23.2%	5.6	0.0%	0.1%	0.5%	3.3%	0.1%	0.7%	3.9%	0.1%	0.9%	4.8%	-3.8%
STL	0-4	-29.8%	3.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.8%	-1.9%

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So we have about a 22% chance at getting a 1st round bye

Ill take it!

by Collin B on Oct 4, 2011 4:45 PM PDT reply actions

Didnt realize they actually had a section for that

I just added up the first 2 numbers and got excited

by Collin B on Oct 4, 2011 4:46 PM PDT up reply actions

my favorite stat

0.9% chance of wild card. Only about 6 teams have equal or worse, 2 in the division. I assume this is because if someone else wins the division, they are not likely to have 10 wins, so we would have 8 or so and hard to make a WC with 8.

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by zenbitz on Oct 4, 2011 5:09 PM PDT reply actions

Yeah the WC is pretty much out of reach for anyone in this division for a while still....

The NFC is too good to let a 8-8/9-7 team take that last playoff spot. Last year, it came down to three 10-6 teams in week 17 for the last wildcard. It’s certainly possible that we win 10 games or more, but it’s pretty much guaranteed that that gives us a division title rather than the WC spot.

by 9thevolution on Oct 5, 2011 6:34 AM PDT up reply actions

What would everyone prefer?

Making the playoffs as the 3 or 4 seed, with an easier home game, or possibly getting the 2 seed (a miracle to get the 1 seed) and having a harder home game?

by sanfranfanmdk on Oct 4, 2011 5:21 PM PDT reply actions

Definitely the first option.

I would rather win in the first round and lose in the second vs. having a bye in the first round and losing in the second. This team needs all the playoff experience it can get.

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by afrikabamboodle on Oct 4, 2011 5:38 PM PDT up reply actions

Always take the buy

Support Ron Paul for President

by bignerd on Oct 4, 2011 7:08 PM PDT up reply actions

Of course take the top seed

The bye goes a long way, and there is no guarantee that means a harder game. If we are good enough to get that seed, then I will be fully expecting every game to be a win at that point. GB is the only team that really scares me in the NFC anyways.

I'm not feeling witty enough right now

by jonesin25 on Oct 4, 2011 8:55 PM PDT up reply actions

I think we should definitely be aiming for the #3 seed or higher.

I really don’t want to face the Packers or (more probably) the Lions first game. The #6 seed will be a mishmash of some not-quite-good-enough NFCE or NFCS team, and I’d rather play the Bucs, Falcons, Eagles, Giants or Redskins than the wild card team that comes crashing out of the North.

by Rhombus on Oct 4, 2011 11:38 PM PDT up reply actions

No question, we want the #2 seed...

It’s not necessarily a harder game. What’s not to say the inferior team wins the 1st round game and we get an easier trip to the NFC championship, and then possibly host that game at the ‘stick. Last year, Seattle won in the first round and handed Chicago a free opportunity to host the NFC title game. Playoff experience is helpful I’m sure, but over-rated; how much playoff experience didi the Packers have last year?

by 9thevolution on Oct 5, 2011 6:38 AM PDT up reply actions

Eagles losing 20 point lead to "Inept" 49ers offense...

is how PFT (Pro Football Talk) stated it while identifying the Eagles as the team voted who suffered week 4 worst lost.

Now Im Pissed…. PFT voted the Eagles as the team with the worst week 4 lost BECAUSE the Eagles "Lost a 20 point lend to the “INEPT” 49ers offense.

They are being dis-respecfull calling our offense ….Inept!

Put that word “Inept” on the 9ers bullentin board this week and lets see how “Inept” they are against Tampa Bay.

by BigMar on Oct 4, 2011 5:31 PM PDT reply actions

preach it man

Let’s go 9ers!

by otsntots on Oct 4, 2011 5:41 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions

I presume that you recognize that PFT has almost as much of an east coast bias as Peter King ...

meaning their brains are located somewhere in the mid-Atlantic Ocean; to them anything west of Pittsburgh is indian territory and the unsettled west; but fear not, their time is coming … at some point the higher ups are going to realize that the center of U.S. population is already west of the Mississippi River, meaning that the east coast will become less and less important as we move forward.

by 49erFanSince1950 on Oct 4, 2011 6:10 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

well i'm an east coaster and we DO think that

but i still love my niners :P

by MattSFfrd on Oct 5, 2011 5:33 AM PDT up reply actions

Two things on that:

the Niners offense was called “inept” because of the stats put up against SEA, CIN and DAL.

These stats are very misleading, as we all know, especially against the Bengals. A lot of people underestimated, and still underestimate the Bengals defense (why they’re still doing that after holding the Bills to 20 points, I have no idea). So the 9ers offense, after playing poorly against one of the league’s best defenses, plays well against the Eagles, and the nation is shocked. No one who actually watched the Niners games thought they were incapable of putting up points. Far from it. But few people DID watch those games, and the stat line, especially things like total yards, were quite low.

Also, after this game no one is going to call the Niners offense inept. It’ll take at least 5-6 good games to call it a “great” offense, but those days are over. Our offense now supplements the defense rather than relies on it.

by Rhombus on Oct 4, 2011 7:29 PM PDT up reply actions

Not to mention

The Bengals offense has only really sucked against us as well, which says a lot to our defense.

I'm not feeling witty enough right now

by jonesin25 on Oct 4, 2011 8:58 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't know if the 49ers offense is going to blow people away

If they can creep in the realm of average I’ll be pleased.

Support Ron Paul for President

by bignerd on Oct 4, 2011 11:09 PM PDT up reply actions

man it would be the story of the year for the NFL

If the 49ers suprises everyone in the NFC and takes it the the Superbowl where Alex Smith finally gets even with Aaron Rodgers w/ a ring of his own and finally setting a tone for the fans in candlestick park and everyone else in the media.

"Winning means being unafraid to lose." – Fran Tarkenton

by Nelow on Oct 4, 2011 6:05 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs

haha how much dealing with the devil would that require?

I can see it happening in a few years (maybe even next year, if we draft a decent secondary)

by brundylop on Oct 4, 2011 6:11 PM PDT up reply actions

If the 49ers start playing to kill

Instead of playing to just win.. I don’t think it’s that crazy if they did make it to the superbowl.. Obviously they have to keep improving but this year the NFC does not look that scary.. Besides the saints, packers, and lions I really don’t see anyone that is dominant.. And we played pretty close games with the saints and packers last year.. And since we are much improved now I can only assume we will be much better later.. We can run, air it out when we need to, we can stop the run and plAy decent coverage.. All the intangibles are there just need consistency.. My hope is that when post season comes around Aldon Smith is mutated into a a pass rushing beast.. He can stop Aarons qb running game for sure..

by pigskin slapper on Oct 4, 2011 6:42 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions

Close game against the Packers was two years ago....

Last year they embarassed us badly, while Troy Smith went out and played possibly the worst game I’ve ever seen from a QB. Would have rather had Cody Pickett out there.

by 9thevolution on Oct 5, 2011 7:11 AM PDT up reply actions

Perhaps more importantly, were that to occur, the construction of a new stadium would be almost guaranteed.

Tough to get great respect when you play in a garbage dump. By the way, I was in attendance at the first Giants game ever played in Candlestick … it was a dump then and it has gone way downhill since then Sigh.

by 49erFanSince1950 on Oct 4, 2011 6:15 PM PDT up reply actions

I agree for sure a new stadium is must and a deal would be done if they were successful in post season..

Now remember I said make it to the superbowl not win it.. Lol… AFC has some good teams..

by pigskin slapper on Oct 4, 2011 6:51 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions

The NFC has a few dominant teams, just fewer than the AFC.

We basically have the Packers, Saints and Lions, and then the rest. I would say the Niners are, currently, the 4th best in the NFC, with some close competition from the competitive-but-not-great NFC East. The AFC has a lot more talent near the top, with BAL, NE, BUF, HOU and TEN, all of whom I would pick over the Niners. However, the top 6 or so are pretty evenly split, and the Niners would have an equally hard chance getting through the playoffs in either conference.

by Rhombus on Oct 4, 2011 7:37 PM PDT up reply actions

You're drastically overrating the AFC...

AFC right now has one stellar team and they happen to field the worst defense in the NFL (Patriots).

BAL has incredibly suspect offense and if you rattle Flacco and stop the run game, defense has to carry them. That won’t work in the playoffs.

BUF is being overrated; they’re playing well, but they are far from elite, don’t let the record fool you. If they were elite, they wouldn’t have lost to CIN and a rookie QB.

HOU is playing balanced football and pulling out some wins, but they are also far from elite. There’s a reason they haven’t ever made the playoffs, and they’re only on track because Manning isn’t playing for the Colts.

TEN playing well, and Hass is getting it done, but let’s not annoint them as anything special when they haven’t proven much of anything.

Also, don’t group the Lions with the Pack and Saints. One dominant WR and a QB who can toss it up does not make you an elite team. Elite teams don’t spot their opponents 20 points in back-to-back weeks.

by 9thevolution on Oct 5, 2011 7:18 AM PDT up reply actions