Football Outsiders Take On The 49ers "Winning Formula"
by David Fucillo on Oct 6, 2011 11:00 AM PDT
in San Francisco 49ers Game Recap, Review 2011
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PrintThe folks at Football Outsiders put together a weekly post for ESPN in which they generally break down a game from the perspective of the losing team. This past week they changed it up a bit and took a look at the 49ers and the three things they have done well (INSIDER protected) much of this season to get out to their 3-1 start.
The article is password protected by ESPN Insider so I thought I'd get you some of the details. Here is the three-part formula FO lists:
1. Win the turnover battle
2. Play dominant run defense
3. Excel in the kicking game
The turnover battle has been key for the 49ers as they are currently +8 in turnover differential. One big issue with turnovers can be luck as it comes to recovering fumbles. FO views forcing fumbles and holding on to the ball as skills, while recovering a loose ball as a bit more luck. For the 49ers, they have recovered nine of 15 loose balls (their fumbles and opponent fumbles combined). With teams generally recovering about half the available loose balls, the 49ers are not exactly blowing the door out in the luck department in regards to fumble recoveries.
The big key in the turnover battle has really been Alex Smith's ability to not make too many mistakes with the ball. He has two interceptions since last October 10 and is getting better in his decision-making. Even when the play is breaking down as we've seen a couple times this season on botched shotgun snaps, he has recovered and been able to either get it downfield to a receiver (the end zone PI play) or get out of the pocket and throw the ball away.
The dominant run defense has been discussed repeatedly and has really been a key for the 49ers. The pass defense has its moments but has also struggled from time to time. The Eagles are not exactly the best example of testing the run given how much Andy Reid likes to throw. But even still, if LeSean McCoy had found more success on the ground (instead of nine carries for 18 yards), the Eagles could very well have run down a lot more clock when they grabbed the big lead.
Michael Vick did have a lot of first half success running the ball, but even he was contained to some extent in the second half. He had 75 rushing yards, but 62 came in the first half. The 49ers adjusted to him and even he was held in check in the running game.
The third one was not exactly spectacular on Sunday against the Eagles, but thankfully the Eagles had their own kicking issues and it sort of became a wash. The 49ers did have greater success in punting and kickoffs, so that gives them a slight edge there. But all together on the season, special teams has been a huge strength for the team.
In recent years the 49ers talked about being physical with an F under Mike Singletary or playing some hard core defense under Mike Nolan. They would have their moments of victory, but overall things just sort of turned into a mess. Under Jim Harbaugh, you could argue that along with the precision passing, the team has been quite physical at least along the defensive front seven.
Eric Davis a couple tweets regarding this (tweet 1, tweet 2) and I've heard other people reference the idea that the 49ers are playing Mike Singletary football better under Jim Harbaugh than they did under Mike Singletary. If you believe that notion, part of it might be due to the fact that they're not telling the opponents exactly what they plan to do and then go out and do exactly that. Under Jim Harbaugh the team has not told anybody anything about anything. Then, as they showed in the Eagles game, they go out and make adjustments when things are not looking pretty. Who knew adjustments could work?!?!
I'd argue with that in mind that there is a fourth aspect to the formula:
4. Smart coaching
Normally it shouldn't need to be a part of the formula to include "Smart Coaching" but given the performances of recent 49ers coaching staffs, this seems appropriate. While previous 49ers coaching staffs may have been loaded with "smart people" that did not make them smart coaches. The lack of in-game adjustments alone proves that. It is rather nice having a coaching staff that mixes it up and actually tries to out-think the opposition.
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Point 4 could also be: Adjusting game plan to the strengths of the players available (and hiding the weaknesses).
We need to see some of that this Sunday with a backup NT, most likely, facing Blount.
Not "could"
“if LeSean McCoy had found more success on the ground (instead of nine carries for 18 yards), the Eagles could very well have run down a lot more clock …”
It’s WOULD…every HS coach knows how to milk a lead. The run D was huge.
Jason Garrett is and NFL coach...
and he doesn’t seem to have the slightest clue as to how to milk a lead…
by Sigelvictory on Oct 6, 2011 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions
I think they meant if he had had more success on the first 9 carries then they'd have been more open to running more
And yea, it’s been perplexing to hear national media people mention that 9 carries for 18 yards is a joke for Reid, but every week for the past 2+ years they’ve been shutting down running backs and giving up passes with regularity.
by whistlingmountain on Oct 6, 2011 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions
"the 49ers are playing Mike Singletary better under Jim Harbaugh than they did under
Mike Singletary."
EXACTLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
There was nothing wrong with Singletary’s vision of how to play the game, it’s just that he (nor Jimmy Raye) had any semblance of a clue as to how to bring it to fruition!!!!!!
After all was said and done, a lot more got said than done.
it did seem that
It was Singletary and Raye’s only goal
where as for Harbaugh, it’s just his primary goal.
by whistlingmountain on Oct 6, 2011 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions
Correct
But his game planning, his and Raye’s play calling, and his hard headedness were all major major major problems.
by 49er faithful on Oct 6, 2011 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions
The basic premise was fine...
Run the football with success and stop the opposing team from running the football. That is just good football sense. If you can run, you should be able to pass… if you can’t run, well nothing good is going to come from that. Again… it was SingleRayes inability to actually put their words into motion that was distressing.
by Sigelvictory on Oct 6, 2011 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions
That and
the fact that Singletary seemed to want so much to exude dominance if that makes any sense. He wanted to make teams know exactly what was coming and not be able to stop it. And to be honest that sounds pretty damn cool, but it’s REALLY REALLY UNREALISTIC. NFL players are amazing athletes and tough athletes and you can’t just expect to build some dream team that’s going to steamroll all your opponents, because generally they’re about as tough as you are.
Playing smart is just as important as playing tough. You can try all you want to show your cards and push people around in a show of arrogance and confidence, but it certainly helps to be able to catch your opponent off guard every once in a while, and that’s what the better teams do. That’s what we’re doing better this year. Yes we did see a lot of runs and quite a bit of conservative play early on, but when this playbook has opened up a bit, we’ve seen some pretty creative stuff, and I’m sure we haven’t seen the craziest stuff yet.
by jveezy on Oct 6, 2011 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Case in point...
The Bucs saying after last year they knew exactly what we were going to run.
Hell, I bet someone who watched any of our games last year as their very first football game ever would know exactly what we were going to do.
by ColoradoNiner on Oct 6, 2011 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Fumble Recoveries
For the 49ers, they have recovered nine of 15 loose balls (their fumbles and opponent fumbles combined). With teams generally recovering about half the available loose balls, the 49ers are not exactly blowing the door out in the luck department in regards to fumble recoveries.
This is an excellent point. The one word of caution is that at least some of these recoveries have come at pivotal points in the game. I’ll bet our Win Probability Added for those fumbles was quite high. In that sense we have been quite lucky.
I agree with the sentiment that they haven't been lucky on turnovers
The roughly break even on fumbles and the reason they have so few interceptions is because they’re being very cautious with the passing game. I don’t see any reason why it would come crashing down to Earth.
They have had a few fgs missed against them though.
by whistlingmountain on Oct 6, 2011 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions
Good point
The eagle fumble by the goal line and the one at the end of the game greatly increased the win probability.
by 49er faithful on Oct 6, 2011 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Both of those fumbles were a function of what the Defense does well...
I mean, Ronnie Brown pulled an all time no brainer… but without a stout run D we wouldn’t have put him in the position to show off his mind shatteringly bad decision making skills… and well, Justin Smith is just Justin Smith…
by Sigelvictory on Oct 6, 2011 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions
The fumble @ the end of the game is what sealed the deal…no if’s, and’s, or but’s about it; but otherwise yes, turnovers have been instrumental on our way to 3-1
by Doni S on Oct 6, 2011 12:09 PM PDT via iPhone app up reply actions
True...
and at the end of the day it is really the only play worth looking at as a game deciding play. All the other stuff falls into the realm of Chaos Theory. If Ronnie Brown scores… If Akers doesn’t have a miss and a block… it the Eagles rookie didn’t leave them longing for the days of Akers… All those things could have had impacts on the game that reach much further… changing future events do to changes in play calling and clock management. It drives me nuts when people say “but the eagles missed two kicks” as if you could go back and give them those points and then blindly assume everything else would have fallen into place exactly as it otherwise did on Sunday. Justin Smith decided the outcome on Sunday… everything else “just happened”
by Sigelvictory on Oct 6, 2011 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions
It’s almost like Justin pulled a Brett Favre for us when it mattered most…yes, I know, we could all do w/out remembering That game, but I can’t help making an analogy out of it if only for comparison’s sake
by Doni S on Oct 6, 2011 12:58 PM PDT via iPhone app up reply actions
you had to bring it up didnt you?
LOL
An ice cold beer, pizza and a 49ERS game is my idea of heaven. =)
Anyone see Chad Henne went down?
Anyone but the Seahawks to get Luck and it’s cool. Rams and Cards both got their QB’s so the Hawks are the only ones in the hunt.
Call me cautiously optimistic....because I know what the Niners do to people who have real optimism (see the last 8 years).
At this point, I don't see how the Seahawks get Luck
they’re playing well at home, they’ll win 4 or 5.
Dolphins owner is putting them in a difficult position. Refused to pay Orten in sign and trade, refused to pay Garrard. Didn’t bring in anyone other than Bush. With Bills showing marked improvement, Dolphins seem to be in position to lose badly. Owner basically tanking. Coaches and players have to play their best for contracts though.
I’m also at the point where I think the Vikings sticking with McNabb might actually help them get Luck, but Colts still prohibitive favorite.
by whistlingmountain on Oct 6, 2011 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions
would either the colts or the vikes take him though...
people keep saying the colts, but they did just give Peyton a TON of money… I mean, unless his career is OVER I just don’t see it… and would the Vikes take Luck without even giving Ponder a shot?
by Sigelvictory on Oct 6, 2011 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Aaron Rodgers model
I think it depends on how much the Colts see if the writing is on the wall for Manning. Even if he comes back…I think they could see him limited to some degree (and definitely more fragile). With the giant gaping hole at QB they have right now and no continuity it’s obvious that QB is there biggest need on the team and they can’t just get by with what they have at QB. I could see them drafting the QB of the future and having him sit behind Manning for a year or two (again assuming Manning is physically limited and has a short shelf life…..heck even if he recovers from his injury..he’s getting up there in age anyway). The Favre to Rodgers model might be what the Colts look to as their plan for continuity.
by allforfunnplay on Oct 6, 2011 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions
wow imagine if the colts get him?
i think that would help Luck a lot. Manning would, i think help the kid out a lot.
An ice cold beer, pizza and a 49ERS game is my idea of heaven. =)
The Vikes would in a heartbeat
The Colts would be in a terribly awkward position, perhaps worse than the Rams.
Colts would either take Luck or try to trade him, but for players. Which is incredibly difficult in the modern NFL ( leading me to believe they’d just take Luck and apologize to Peyton that they couldn’t use the pick to help him win ).
The Rams on the other hand could trade Luck for picks and would go with a long-term plan with Bradford. However, that franchise and fan base already bought into Bradford. A lot of jersies out there and they were basically “sold” by the team and media that Bradford was a “sure thing” For about 12 weeks last year before turning awful.
by whistlingmountain on Oct 6, 2011 4:52 PM PDT up reply actions
At least, people have stopped talking about the 49ers in that context?
I hope.
Now, is the winter of our discontent
Made glorious summer by this son of York
--Richard III, Act I, Scene 1
I think there are still quite a few people that would hold out hope
for some kind of blockbuster trade.
But I think Josh Johnson being a FA is almost a sure thing to sign with the 49ers. They’ll go into next season with he and Kaepernick at least. Maybe with Smith and just.. let them go at it.
by whistlingmountain on Oct 6, 2011 4:53 PM PDT up reply actions
They do, unfortunate for some teams this year
There seem to be about 7 teams that are really bad, that means the Chiefs and Seahawks could be truly awful and pick 6th and 7th. Might not even have a shot at the 2nd or 3rd best QB in the draft. Depending on desperation.
by whistlingmountain on Oct 6, 2011 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Don't rule out the Broncos.
They are not a good football team.
Owner loves luck.
Could realistically go into the bye at 1-4, make the move to Tebus citing record and fans wishes to see the future.
Then sit back and watch the dumpster burn. Prove to the fans Tebow isn’t an NFL QB while putting the team in a position to draft one.
For some reason it just makes too much sense to me.
Elway and the Stanford connection
Remember Elway is in charge over there now. I don’t know how much of a relationship he has with Luck. But as for tanking the season, I don’t think that’s in Elway’s DNA.
by allforfunnplay on Oct 6, 2011 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions
if they play Tebow
knowing that he’s going to suck and “watch the dumpster burn” then that’s tanking the season. not doing everything possible to win games this season is tanking. the fan’s desire for Tebow is irrelevant.
by allforfunnplay on Oct 6, 2011 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions
I still don't think the Broncos are that bad
They’re just going through the ills of a coaching change. I think they’ll be playing hard and winning some garbage games as the season closes out.
If they were aiming for Luck, Quinn would be in there.
by whistlingmountain on Oct 6, 2011 4:55 PM PDT up reply actions
Indy is in
contention too…Peyton ain’t gonna play forever
by Doni S on Oct 6, 2011 12:11 PM PDT via iPhone app up reply actions
I think the Rams will have the #1 Pick
and we will see a bidding war for the #1 overall pick like we’ve never seen before. 3 #1s and 3 #2s? Who knows.
Mike florio seems to think that if the Rams totally tank they may take Luck and trade Bradford.
Passing=higher turnover rate
From interceptions to quarterback strips to wide receivers who don’t know how to carry the ball, passing gives a lot more opportunity for the defense to create turnovers. So, one of our keys to success (stopping the run) is at the same time feeding another (winning the turnover battle).
This is true
But also the high risk is balanced by high rewards. The running game is lower risk, but has much lower rewards. However, the risk is not zero — as we found out when Gore fumbled in the Cincinnati game.
Smart coaching
Smart coaching also included outstanding game planning. Jusin Smith’s forced fumble was a great individual effort. But it also succeeded because it was pointed out in game prep. that the Eagles had a tendancy to carry the ball loosely. Great job.
Tactics & Strategy
There’s nothing wrong with Physical football….(the “F” part always seemed sort of dumb). Even the great “Genius” of finesse was former amateur (i don’t recall if he did any pro boxing) and knew even his precision offense had be tough and physical…he often used boxing analogies to teach his teams, jab, jab, right, body blow, uppercut! (slant, swing pass, trap up the middle, post to Rice).
The problem with Singletary was he confused tactics with strategy. If you want to be a power running football team fine….draft big bruising lineman and dominate in the trenches. But what Singletary never understood is that imposing your will is not the same as “not trying to fool anybody” . If the other team knows what you’re going to do, most of the time you’re going to get stopped. Sure you have to have the ability to impose your will and power run in 3rd and short and near the goal line but that’s when you only need a couple yards…you should be able to impose your will with the other team knowing what’s coming and still get a couple yards.
But as an over all offensive philosophy that’s going to get you at best 3rd and 6 and in a forced and obvious passing situation. Singletary as a HC was like putting your top drill sergeant from basic training that is instrumental at whipping recruits into shape and having him plan Operation Overlord (that’s the WWII Normandy Invasion).
Obviously even a run dominant offense needs a competent passing game. If you think about the 90’s Cowboys the Offense was built around the biggest baddest run blockers in the game…the Cowboy’s (then) mammoth offensive line and Emmitt Smith. But when other teams stacked the box so much so that even they couldn’t dominate and run the ball they had Aikman throw to Irvin and his security blanket Novachek (with some Alvin Harper thrown in there at times). When needed their passing game was very good…Aikman and Irvin are in the Hall of Fame…but statistically they were never the tops in passing…they were very good but supplemental to the running game.
The Niners aren’t as simple on offense as Norv’s 90’s offense (a run dominant variation of Air Coryell). But we know Harbaugh likes a power run game. But unlike Singletary he’ll try deceive opposing defenses and will pass when it’s obvious that the running game needs help (like when down by 20 points). Or to put it another way, it’s easier to impose your will if you keep the defense guessing.
Agree with you're military take on Singletary but
I see it as even more simplistic than that. He wants the game to be played with the same tactics they used during the onset of the American revolution.
You line up you’re guys in a straight line and we will do the same and take our shots at each other, and the side with most men standing wins the battle. There was no deception no strategy just straight ahead mano a mano with tens of thousands being killed.
It wasn’t until they adopted the surprise keep them off balance shoot from cover tactics of the American Indian that they began to win the war. I don’t know if Singletary thought that anything less than straight ahead domination of yorn over hisn was wussified football, but it sure seemed that way!
you're thinking of the Southern Campaign
Daniel Morgan and Nathanael Greene at the Battle of Cowpens.
by allforfunnplay on Oct 6, 2011 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions
200 yards passing in the second half last week doesn't match up with those three things.
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much of the season....
The article is looking at the 49ers over the course of the season, not just the Eagles game. They are going to do other things well at times, but they are pointing to those as three keys overall. Of course It could change depending on how the offense opens up.
by David Fucillo on Oct 6, 2011 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions
I believe it will over the course of the season… as it has here and there.
As HTS alluded to last week, Harbaugh finally took the baby playbook out of Smith’s hands and gave him the big boy playbook. He showed he was capable of handling the big boy playbook. So I would imagine that as Smith shows he is capable, the leash will get longer and longer as long as he doesn’t regress (knock on wood).
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Could it be…dare I say it!!
Niners,Nets,Reds & USC!!!
The Most Interesting Man In The World---->Mikhail Prokhorov!!!
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