Alex Smith And The Art Of The Short And Long Sack
by David Fucillo on Oct 7, 2011 1:30 PM PDT
in 49ers Statistical Preview and Review
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PrintThe folks at Football Outsiders conduct various charting exercises to help develop more detailed information about what we see on the football field. Their latest release of information is a rundown of quarterback sacks for each team. Thanks to Ougadas for pointing it out in the Fanshots. They went through and determined how many sacks took place in the first 2.5 seconds or less of a play and how many sacks took 3 or more seconds to develop.
49ers QB Alex Smith has been sacked 14 times through four games, which is third among NFL quarterbacks. Based on FO's game-charting, two os his sacks were long sacks and eight were short sacks. That would leave four sacks in between 2.5 and 3 seconds. His eight short sacks were the most among any QB and came on 6.61% of his pass attempts plus sacks (pass attempts do not normally include pass plays ending in a sack). His two long sacks came on 1.65% of pass attempts plus sacks.
While Alex Smith has had issues in the past of holding on to the ball too long, that would not appear to be the case this season, at least with regards to sacks. It's not a perfect stat because QB pressures and QB hits that don't result in a sack are not included. However, I'd say it's still useful information. Alex Smith's short sack rate is three times the NFL average. It may not tell us everything we need to know, but I think that says something about the performance of his blockers, whether it be the line, the running backs or whatever. It's not a perfect stat, but it helps add a little context to the always popular Alex Smith discussion.
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that doesn’t tell us how many of those sacks are on Norris…
and it might be a little misleading because Chilo didn’t lose the RG job until we played Philly this past Sunday. Could be that Alex gets a little extra time to stay upright now…
by Doni S on Oct 7, 2011 1:38 PM PDT via iPhone app reply actions
I would say this certainly helps...
It doesn’t show how many came on blitzes that Smith should throw into, but looking at the tape, at least 6 of those(by my watch) were blown o-line assignments, not obvious blitzes…
I would have to say that this certainly proves, to me, that Smith isn’t having issues reading the defense or missing hot reads… Vast improvement in his game can probably be related to this one attribute…
Loving the solid QB play this season… Difference between 3-1, and 1-3…
There have been issues with hot reads
Hard to tell if they were Smith’s fault. Often I’d notice there wasn’t a receiver breaking off to a quick route. The one time you saw Smith rush a throw on a blitz was his INT against the Cowboys. He threw the ball before the zone could be cleared for VD and I think the DB covering Morgan stepped up and intercepted the pass.
Seems one of the recievers mentioned the plays takes into account blitzes
And there are no hot reads as a result.
by ColoradoNiner on Oct 7, 2011 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions
This did happen...
But he also threw into the empty spot on the Morgan TD last week so I’ll call that a wash…
The “hot read” isn’t a changed route, but it will be the one most likely to be open where the blitz is coming from… Still there, it’s just only Smith has to make the read…
Limited mistakes has gotten the team this far, and we will be able to succeed as long as Alex keeps this consistent play up…
Confirms what I have seen with my eyes...
Alex is doing very well and would likely be doing even better with more help from the O-line, but that seems to be improving (whether from personel changes, chemistry, or other is yet to be seen)
Alex has a QB rating of 97.7
Standing behind this horrible line. Imagine what it would be if he actually had some time to throw the ball!
Maybe those sacks came on all the plays that would have been interceptions otherwise.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Oct 7, 2011 3:09 PM PDT up reply actions
wow, you get two for that hyper pessemistic comment
oh (boy) . . . !!!
oh (boy) . . . !!!
Of course.
The know nothing haters still defend their belief that he’s at fault instead of his incredibly horrible O-line.
This has been the story his whole career. The fact that he’s succeeding now in spite of it is amazing.
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Oct 7, 2011 11:57 PM PDT up reply actions
QBs are also responsible for reading defenses and calling out changes in protection at the LoS
That’s why ESPN’s QBR takes sacks into account in calculating QB rating. I don’t know how many of the sacks (including the sub-2.5 second ones) should be blamed on Alex and the rest on the O Line. Alex continues to improve, and so will the O line. But we are often to eager to pin blame on one player (or group of players) or the other. The reality is more complicated.
Agreed.
"Blackmail is such an ugly word. I prefer "extortion." The "X" makes it sound cool." - Bender Bending Rodriguez
Eleanor Rigby - "Greatest Song" or "The Greatest Song"?
Dobbs is some kind of Young/Smith/Roosevelt hybrid, and will absolutely ruin the NFL experience for the other 31 teams and their few fans.
Their QBR is a joke
Stafford is 12th LOL
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Oct 7, 2011 11:57 PM PDT up reply actions
None of the 2.5 second ones should be blamed on him...
Maybe 1 of the 2 long sacks should. Probably 1 of the intermediate sacks as well
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Oct 7, 2011 11:58 PM PDT up reply actions
reminiscent of last year’s Packers I think. They had trouble protecting Aaron at first, then gradually improved as the season moved along.
That’s not to say that’ll happen w/our team, but I think w/Snyder @ RG, Alex can now stay upright a little longer. If not, I wouldn’t be opposed to throwing Kilgore into the line of fire
by Doni S on Oct 7, 2011 2:15 PM PDT via iPhone app reply actions
Little chance, I think.
Davis is showing slow but steady improvement. He’d have benefited greatly from having an experienced veteran guard playing next to him.
Not in pass pro
Unless multiple tripping penalties and 3 sacks + a hit on the QB that caused a forced fumble is improvement.
Read that as 6 sacks against him last game.
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Oct 8, 2011 12:00 AM PDT up reply actions
Sack/Fumble is the same play, so I'll give you 5...
But the point is well received…
There was a lot he was doing well that game when he wasn’t blowing his coverage… Still has upside…
5 it is. Didn't know if they were counting that as a sack
Since somebody besides Alex recovered it.
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Oct 8, 2011 2:03 AM PDT up reply actions
I lot of it has been mental, not physical
No one picking up extra pass rusher, missing hot reads, think twice Smith has failed to throw on designed three step drops. All these are correctable with repetition, confidence and more coaching. If they were that bad they would have never scored three TDs against Philly in the 2nd half last week.
Well put
Because of the lockout, I think of the Niners playing their season opener this Sunday. I think the team is where it would be if they had had a full off-season. Mental errors will decrease steadily, and so will the penalties.
You're a joke dude.
Not throwing on a 3 step drop when he’s getting hit in under 2.5 seconds… Just whatever dude. If he’s throwing the ball in that situation he’s getting hit while he’s on his 2nd read and throwing Ints
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Oct 8, 2011 12:02 AM PDT up reply actions
No.
Sando had a stat when we played them. Rodgers was AVERAGING 3+ seconds on his sacks. Alex was averaging 2.5 seconds.
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Oct 7, 2011 11:59 PM PDT up reply actions
those "short sacks"
are killers… simply no time to throw. The receivers haven’t even had time to run routes or anything.
You're Right On Target
There have been a bunch of sacks where Smith didn’t even get to finish his drop. Chilo is out and Davis need to be replaced next. Babin took him to school so bad getting those three sacks that Davis got fined for leg whipping as he was trying anything to keep him out of the backfield. Babin got so frustrated he clocked Smith in the head and got fined too. And remember, we traded up in the first round to get Davis! They need to pull him sooner rather than later. Seriously, his pass protection has been questionable all season.
Yup
3 sacks, (I’m not sure if that even includes the fumble that was recovered), and 2 trips to stop more sacks.
Pathetic.
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Oct 8, 2011 1:50 AM PDT up reply actions
Sacks.....
Basically, can’t even blame AS on most of the sacks this year, until our OLine & RB/TE’s learn how to pass protect schematically better!!
Niners,Nets,Reds & USC!!!
The Most Interesting Man In The World---->Mikhail Prokhorov!!!
Lol, at anyone not considering pre snap reads and communication between the ol and smith pre snap. Our offense isn’t getting to the line fast enough. We should b there at 11 seconds on the play clock…….
Blogging is nothing more than graffiti with punctuation...
It goes hand in hand.
When you got a terrible line, and a QB that doesn’t use proper footwork at all times it becomes a very messy situation.
You watch the elite guys make throws and they usually are getting rid of it within 2 seconds. They also don’t shuffle their feet in the pocket. Peyton Manning for example the past few years has had a god awful offensive line and he did everything he could to compensate with audibles, hot routes, etcetera. He also has a lightning quick release like the other elite ones do, whereas Smith still has a wind—up which hurts.
Alex has taken a big step this year in being careful with the ball, and throwing more accurately but his pocket presence still needs work, along with footwork.
On a side, Anthony Davis needs to be benched. I’m sick of people using the “he’s only 21” excuse. He is a fat slob who has no chance against speed rushers. He is a good run blocker but he is absolutely worthless in pass protection. Time for Boone.
Payton also threw 11 INTs in 3 games
once his O-line wasn’t fantastic.
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Oct 8, 2011 12:03 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Turnovers
1 int and 2 fumbles. That’s the big difference between the old Alex and the new. Considering all the duress he’s been under, that’s a huge improvement. I see this team just continuing to get better as the season progresses. Prepare the bandwagon.
"The year we beat Miami in the Super Bowl, ... do you know how many defensive linemen were in our rotation? Nine, and we used them all quite a bit. We just wore the Dolphins out." - Bill Walsh
The line should get better as the year goes on...in theory lol
I believe the major issue is actually center…Goodwin isn’t the sharpest tool in the shed and need’s time in the same system to handle protections
...and then Singletary opened His Book and it said "thou shalt NOT pass"
Agreed! Center is a Problem
But right tackle is an emergency. Davis just looks helpless in pass protection and that’s when he’s trying to block the right guy. Sometimes, he’s just oblivious to what’s happening on the field. And this is a first round pick who is in to his second year.
Goodwin has break-downs on some plays. Davis just looks stiff-legged and lost.
Just for emphasis. We are a full 1.5% points worse than any team in the league on short sacks
We lead the league and we have less passing attempts than all but 4 teams. 2 of whom we are tied with at 121 attempts, (Jacksonville and Min). KC and Houston have 120 and 119 respectively. Houston and Jacksonville have both given up 4, Minnesota 2 and KC 1. Our line is THE WORST IN THE LEAGUE. Philly is the only one possibly comparable because Vick avoids so many sacks.
Gimme 1 round!
Oh and 1 more for all the dummies that say Alex fumbled the ball without being hit
NO EXPLANATION
…
It ended up being a lot easier than Babin expected. There was nothing complicated about what the Eagles did — no linebackers or defensive backs rushed, and none of the four defensive linemen ran twists or loops. But even with all that, Babin came through completely unblocked.
Davis blocked down, helping out Snyder. With no tight end on that side and no back staying in to block, Babin had one of the easiest sacks he’ll ever get. He poked the ball out of Alex Smith’s hands just 1.9 seconds after the snap, leading to a turnover.
Gimme 1 round!
settle down
Calling people dummies and morons is not helping this at all.
by David Fucillo on Oct 8, 2011 12:47 AM PDT up reply actions
Roger Fooch
I get pissed because I care. Our fool fans by all rights should have driven away the most loyal player on our team. A player who is all of a sudden looking like a top 10 QB despite a bottom 2 offensive line, the same caliber which he’s had for years. (I’m absolutely certain these same figures would show in the stats for other years had they been recorded… Just look how many more sacks Shaun Hill took than Alex in less games). And there is a very good chance they still might. First mistake he makes they’ll be back to booing him off the field without any knowledge of what’s going on around him. I’ve seen it for a long time and had to rail against people, (I won’t call them fans) that cite completely slanted facts and stats that haven’t been relevant for years and slander the man. They don’t really care about the team, they just like to hear the sound of their own voice and join in a mob mentality. I’d rather our team be a perennial loser like the Sacto Kings and these lousy fans go elsewhere than win with them while they are just waiting for a chance to boo and say "I was right! Alice doesn’t have "it""
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Oct 8, 2011 2:14 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Rodgers would have been fried here
Ive tried to tell people here CSN everywhere had we drafted the great Aaron Rodgers with the same organization Alex has been a part of the last 6 years Rodgers would have failed as well, and most likely would have moved on and cut his losses here. Thats why Im so eager for an Alex comeback I love a good turnaround story
Please help me out over at CSN
And let all the all the haters have it :-) I cant do it alone
FtGambit I did
I’m posted right above you on a thread linking this article. To be as efficient as Alex has been while having such subpar protection is extremely impressive.
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Oct 9, 2011 4:28 AM PDT up reply actions
The people who were chanting "we want CARR" last year ...
Need to remove themselves them from the gene pool
...and then Singletary opened His Book and it said "thou shalt NOT pass"
Nothing beats the tebow fan club up in denver though
Just because he’s a 24 year old virgin and loves jesus DOESN’T MEAN HE CAN BE AN NFL QUARTERBACK %#%@
...and then Singletary opened His Book and it said "thou shalt NOT pass"
IVE BEEN SAYING IT ALL ALONG
Seriously not one to toot my own horn when Im right, well okay yes I am but Ive said it all along to all the haters that said Alex cant play in the NFL and I said really idiots cuz Ive replayed every game the last couple years and I could swear the O line is one of the worst in the league and once we hired Jim Harbaugh I told everyone that Harbaugh would want to keep Alex because he will see what Ive seen all along Alex was never the main problem the O line and coaching were. I will say Alex has improved big time this year with the PUMP FAKE and footwork to things I did criticize about him in the past
One tangent, but -
- the frequency of Alex Smith getting hit so quickly suggests that perhaps the reason why the passing YPA was so low during the first several games was not because Alex is “captain checkdown” but rather because the coaches were calling plays with short routes because they didn’t trust the line to keep Smith standing long enough for deeper stuff.
(This is backed up by a glance at the targetting numbers – how often Smith threw to whom.)
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