49ers Playoff Odds: The Boston Red Sox And The NFC West
by David Fucillo on Nov 2, 2011 1:30 PM PDT
in NFC West
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PrintFootball Outsiders and numberFire.com via ESPN Insider both provided updated NFL playoff odds as we head into week nine, and not too surprisingly, the 49ers are pretty close to maxing out their playoff chances. The Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals continued throwing up a goose egg and the San Francisco 49ers moved a step closer to locking up the NFC West.
The current FO odds for the 49ers to earn a playoff berth are at 99.9%. Their odds of winning the division sit at 99.8%. The second place Seahawks travel to face the Dallas Cowboys this Sunday and I suspect a Seahawks loss and a 49ers win would be enough to nudge their division odds up to 99.9% as well. The folks at ESPN/numberFire.com have the 49ers overall odds at 99.8% and slotted in as the number two seed.
It is worth noting that the Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves both had playoff odds of higher than 99% at different times in September, only to fall apart down the stretch. That has stuck in the back of my mind as the 49ers playoff odds have climbed each week. Of course, then I remember that the Red Sox and Braves did not play in the NFC West.
The division has had plenty of highlights over the years, but in recent years it really has been quite abysmal. It "peaked" last year with a 7-9 division champ. This year, it is not entirely out of the realm of possibility for the 49ers to end up with nearly as many wins as the rest of the division combined. There's still a lot of time left before that happens, but it is not a pretty picture.
The Rams currently sit at the bottom of the NFC West, but I would not be at all surprised to see them end the season in second place. They have all six divisional games remaining, including a season finale with the 49ers. They have had their struggles but a healthy Steven Jackson can help carry that offense. I think at this point, in spite of only recently getting their first win, they are the second best team in the division. Whether that is saying much is another question entirely, but I still think they are an interesting team to watch as they enter the second half of their schedule.
NFC West
| Team | Rec | WEI DVOA | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | DIV | BYE | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 6-1 | 25.2% | 12.2 | 37.6% | 44.4% | 12.7% | 5.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 99.8% | 82.1% | 0.1% | 99.9% | 0.3% |
| SEA | 2-5 | -18.6% | 5.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | -1.7% |
| ARI | 1-6 | -25.9% | 4.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| STL | 1-6 | -38.1% | 3.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
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Why ya gotta bring up the Redsox
Still in pain
by Collin B on Nov 2, 2011 1:35 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Haha!
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
Follow the Chicken on Twitter
by SportsChicken on Nov 2, 2011 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions
+1
Me too
"I can honestly tell you that every time you win a game, it's like ... six hours of just the greatest feeling there is" - Jim Harbaugh
by return2greatness on Nov 2, 2011 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Well you could always be a fan of the Jays like me
disappointment year in and year out
The difference is that the STL Cards and the Rays were actually good teams
the rest of this division is a wasteland
by ThePasswordisWillieMcgee on Nov 2, 2011 1:56 PM PDT reply actions
The number I'm looking at:
37.6% chance of beating out the Packers for the #1 seed.
We don't need 8 in the box. We have 52 in the box.
by these3words on Nov 2, 2011 2:26 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Lets hope the players don’t start eating fried chicken and drinking beer during halftime.
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
Follow the Chicken on Twitter
by SportsChicken on Nov 2, 2011 2:31 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Braves
Even though they are mentioned in the article, glad to see they were kept out of the headline by the Red Sox…if there is any consolation for my Braves and the end of season struggles, it is that the Red Sox were just a touch worse and get the majority of the focus.
another way to look at it (WARNING MATH)
assume that DVOA and all performance this year is a mirage and SF and SEA are both .500 teams. Actually, lets make them worse – they are .500 teams against the rest of their respective schedules (FO ranks them as 32nd and 29th most difficult, respectively). This is very close to a worst case scenario… including various injury tornadoes. I think the only thing that would be worse is if Seattle is actually WAY BETTER than the 49ers… but lets’ not get too crazy.
Next we will assume that SEA beats SF and somehow wins any tie breakers. So for SEA to win the division they have to win 4 more games than the Niners.
So the following possibilities exist (assuming SEA beats SF in Seattle)
SEA 8-0 SF 5-3 or worse (both finish 11-5)
SEA 7-1 SF 4-4 or worse
SEA 6-2 SF 3-5 or worse
SEA 5-3 SF 2-6 or worse
SEA 4-4 SF 1-7 or worse
SEA 3-5 SF 0-8
If every SEA/SF game is a 50-50 shot (ignoring home/away)
P1 0.05%
P2 2%
P3 3.8%
P4 3.1%
P5 1%
P6 .08%
The P(SEA divsion) = Sum of those probabilities (which are a product of the 2 “independent” ones)
Or about 10% … BUT we assumed that Seattle beats SF and in our model there is only a 50-50 shot of this… so it’s more like 5%.
I think 5-8% represents a good upper bound on the chances of someone else winning the division.
Brian Sabean: Sing His Praises To The Heavens!
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game that seems to have resurrected itself in my absence...
Sox Fan Here
What a mess the end of the season was. I doubt Harbaugh would let anything like that happen though. 49ers players are playing harder now than they have for as long as I remember. This team looks like they are having fun out there. Boston coasted for three months based on the sheer talent of the team, by contrast, the 49ers are winning because of a collective urge to give everything they’ve got. That determination is already paying dividends. I don’t see it going away.
"I can honestly tell you that every time you win a game, it's like ... six hours of just the greatest feeling there is" - Jim Harbaugh
by return2greatness on Nov 2, 2011 2:43 PM PDT reply actions
I made this comment in a different thread yesterday...
All teams in the NFC West have 9 games remaining. If 2nd place Seattle were to win all 9, they’d end up 11-5. If we go 5-4 the rest of the way, we end up 11-5 (so our "magic number" is currently 6—any combination of 49er wins and Seattle losses totalling 6 eliminates Seattle. Our magic # with both St. Louis and Arizona is 5)… since we have 5 games remaining vs the NFC West (inclucing 2 each vs both St. Louis and Arizona), we’re prohibitive favorites to win the division.
[New to this comment: it’s important to keep in mind that a game within the division is worth two games in the “magic number” battle because, since the game is between two division foes, it creates both a win and a loss for division teams… a victory over Washington this Sunday reduces our “magic #” by one, but a victory over Seattle when we play them up there would reduce our “magic #” with them by two (but by one with other division foes)]
A bye and homefield advantage in the first round of the playoffs are quite realistic goals. Win that first playoff game, we’re in the NFC Championship game, win that and we’re in the Super Bowl!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (PLAYOFFS!!!?? DID YOU SAY PLAYOFFS???!!—my best Jim Mora impression)
After all was said and done, a lot more got said than done.
DON'T TALK ABOUT PLAYOFFS!!!!!
I’M JUST HOPING WE CAN WIN A GAME!!!!
I love that one. Don’t forget that other Coach,
THEY ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE!!!
AND WE LET THEM OFF THE HOOK!!!
IF YOU WANNA CROWN THERE A$$!! CROWN THEM!
by Zintzun22niner on Nov 2, 2011 4:29 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
that other coach was Denny Green
After all was said and done, a lot more got said than done.
I see the season ending... roughly..
49ers 14-2 or 13-3
St Louis 7-9
Seattle 5-11
Arizona 5-11
Arizona has beeter pieces in place, but Kolb having Turf Toe and walking around in a boot knocks them way down. St Louis stepped up big vs the Saints, but with AJ Feeley. Bradford will return and should win ~4-5 games with Feely probably winning another one somewhere in the mix.
If the Niners can go 14-2, they take the 2 seed easily. If they go 13-3 they take the 2 seed but will need a little help from either the NFC South, or the losses need to come vs AFC teams (Balt/Pitt). If they pull out a 15-1, they will need Detroit (or another NFC North team) to beat the Packers. Hence a tie, and the Niners would have the better in-division record for the tie breaker…. Here’s to wishful thinking.. cheers.
The division leaders in the South and East
Already have 2 losses… The niners at 14-2 would already clinch the #2 seed as even if those 2 teams win out, both of their losses are also against the NFC, unless our 2nd loss is to the New York Giants… If they lose just 1 game, the niners would take it…
At 13-3 we still have exceptionally good odds based on strength of schedule for those teams and their competitive divisions… Especially the South… There are ZERO bad teams…
Basically, the way I see it, the niners clinch a bye when they beat the Giants… The most important game playoff seed wise on our schedule…
Weren't the Rams preseason favorites to win the division?
I too see a strong possibility of them coming in second. I think the Niners’ sights are set a bit higher than the Division though.
49ers- Imposing Their Will, One Game at a Time.
Yup , from the wonderful world of Football ( Outsiders ) , don't know much about the game , but they sure can pound out the numbers ...!!
I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ...Jimmy Raye your no daisy ...!!
"Of course, then I remember that the Red Sox and Braves did not play in the NFC West."
Quote of the year! LOL
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