Can the Niners "manage" a Super Bowl? article by Trent Dilfer

by Panda4Niner on Nov 22, 2011 4:27 PM PST

Anyone catch this very well thought out article by Trent Dilfer? It was posted on ESPN.com 3 days ago and was very insightful hitting on the comparison questions he's gotten between the 2011 Niners and the 2000 Ravens to the philosophy of complementary schemes.

If you didn't read it, here's a bit from the article:

"It was about complementary schemes. If you know your defense is extraordinary, if you can keep those players fresh and in good field position, you minimize risks. On that team, we knew that if we tried to win 45-10 we were risking losing 23-20. But we also knew winning 20-10 was always an option if we played smart. I recall being on our 20, dropping and seeing a tight window on a 20-yard throw -- one I felt I could make -- and remembering to just take that 6-yard dump-off. (Having Lewis as a neighbor may have been a reminder.)"

He continues by explaining that we may be looking at the Niners and their potential to make a legitimate playoff run the wrong way. We continually hear the lack of execution, talent, etc by certain players (ie Alex Smith) as the reasons why we don't blow teams out or may get stumped in the playoffs. However, we should be looking at the big picture in that our offensive strength is to extend drives, get points (which we are Top 10 in), and keep the defense fresh. Same with the special teams. They put the defense in a position where the opposing team needs to drive down 10+ more yards down the field and vice versa, our offense has league leading starting field position. And finally, we know our defense is only asked to keep points off the board and try to get the ball back (turnover or punt).

When you look at it this way, the offense excels at exactly what it should helping the other two phases on the team giving them a heck of a chance to "manage" their way into a playoff run and Super Bowl win. Puts a different light on Alex the "Game Manager" moniker. Let him keep it because it's he's allowing our defense to play at a high-level all game

Here's the link for the full article: http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7252154/can-san-francisco-49ers-follow-2000-ravens-model-super-bowl-nfl

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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Not an Insider, but I agree with what's been posted here. Thanks for the link, none-the-less.

However, it doesn’t mean those overthrows aren’t bad. Better throw to Crabs, better throw to Edwards (you could argue he should have caught it, but you can also argue the throw could have been a bit better), and that Cardinals game is blown WIDE open.

I think, outside of Niners Nation, this article carries a lot more weight because people are misunderstanding our offense, as Dilfer explains. It’s all about trade-offs (or what Dilfer calls “risk-reward ratio”).

But within this blog, I think most of us understand what our offense is about. Not many people here are asking for Alex to make tons of deeper throws – i.e., change the game plan altogether; but we are asking him to make quality throws when asked. For the most part, he’s done that. It’s time to clean up some of the mistakes though. Then we’ll be ready for Green Bay ’cuz they have ball hawks on the defensive side, and they WILL take advantage of our mistakes.

This Thursday will provide our greatest offensive test. If we can come through this one with very few mistakes, and put more points on the board then Flacco and Ray Rice, it’s gonna say a lot about Smith and Co.

The Ravens’ offense doesn’t quiet compare to Green Bay’s, but their defense is better. On the whole, I think a game between Baltimore and Green Bay would be very close. If the Ravens team that beat Pittsburgh shows up, they can beat anyone in the league (the Ravens team that played Seattle, not so much). And if we can beat that same Ravens team, who is undefeated at home this year; then no one can question our ability to go toe-to-toe with the champs.

Alex Smith Will Win a Superbowl
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Alex-Smith-Will-Win-a-Superbowl/205058042848290

by liberty_JAC on Nov 22, 2011 5:01 PM PST reply actions

liberty_JAC, did you watch the same game on Sunday that I did?

The continual “drops” by the receivers this season are one of the few things about the Niners’ play that have really bugged me. Consequently, I decided to track “catchable drops” during the Arizona game … alas, there were 7!!! Scorecard: Edwards = 3 drops, Vernon = 2 drops, Crabtree and Gore = 1 each. And, just for giggles, what was the net result of those 7 drops?? One missed touchdown, one missed field goal, and two blocked field goals. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot!

Did Alex make some poor throws? Sure. But if the guys who are paid to catch the ball did so, Alex’s completion rate would have been 71% (27 for 38) instead of 53% (20 for 38). Receivers who can consistently catch the ball would increase our quarterback’s success significantly.

by 49erFanSince1950 on Nov 22, 2011 7:16 PM PST up reply actions

I don't recall saying anything about our receivers

I only said that Alex made a couple poor throws.

In other threads I have spoke of our team’s many dropped passes. Crabtree and Delanie have been the most reliable ones. Ginn has dropped a couple, Vernon and Edwards as well, etc.

So we have no disagreement. But this particular post was about our quarterback, so I deemed it appropriate to talk about how he could play better. Obviously I’m a huge #11 fan – always have been. But he made a couple off throws. Hopefully that AND all the dropped passes can be fixed as the season progresses.

Alex Smith Will Win a Superbowl
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Alex-Smith-Will-Win-a-Superbowl/205058042848290

by liberty_JAC on Nov 22, 2011 7:43 PM PST up reply actions

I get what you are saying

but Alex was even hard in himself. He knows that he let some get away. The entire offense knows that they let a lot get away against the Cards.

I mentioned this before but it is kind the best case scenario. Alex and the offense get that wake up call that we have to improve. That feel frustrated/motivated to get better fast (the way a team would feel after a loss) and they didn’t even have to lose to get that.

I like that the 49ers won a totally dominant game yet what I hear from Alex is that the play was unacceptable and they have to get better. That is a good thing.

Joe, Jerry, Steve, and....Who is next?

by 16to80fan on Nov 23, 2011 5:36 AM PST up reply actions

I think we are in a little bit better shape offensively than the 2000 Ravens

They went through many games without even scoring a TD, our offense is definitely more competent than that lol

by sanfranfanmdk on Nov 22, 2011 5:26 PM PST reply actions

I think Trent Dilfer is REALLY enjoying the positive attention he's getting with all these comparisons....

Not only are people actually talking about Trent Dilfer, but they’re also ignoring just how very terrible he was!

This team is not like that team. The passing efficiency is one thing, but the defensive side of the comparison isn’t really apt, either. Those Ravens gave up an average of about 10 points per game during the regular season and seven points per game in the postseason. Thanks to that incomparable defense, on average, they only had to make three field goals per playoff game to win the Super Bowl (and in actuality, they could have won two of them with only two field goals). Since the 49ers are giving up close to 20 points per game to teams with winning records, I get the feeling it will probably take more than 9 points to win games in the postseason.

Once more, coming to you by proxy.

by howtheyscored on Nov 22, 2011 5:42 PM PST up reply actions

Most people don't realize just how good that defense was

Statistically one of the best defenses of all time. If you have one of the best units of all time on either side of the ball, the other side can be as mediocre as it wants to be.

by Ougadas on Nov 23, 2011 1:19 AM PST up reply actions

Two most dominating Defensive performances that come to mind for me are...

The Ravens against the Giants in the 2001 Super Bowl.

The Bears against the Patriots in the 1986 Super Bowl.

I have many leather-bound books.

by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Nov 23, 2011 5:50 PM PST up reply actions

I think the performance of the Ravens defense over the entire course of that postseason is pretty mindblowing.

Playing a playoff schedule, the most points they gave up to an individual team was 10? Twice, they held playoff teams to a single goal. Just incredible.

Once more, coming to you by proxy.

by howtheyscored on Nov 23, 2011 8:14 PM PST up reply actions

Tampa over Oakland

That was a defensive shellacking as well (shamelessly taking jabs at the Raiders)

by Panda4Niner on Nov 24, 2011 8:11 AM PST up reply actions

That one just wasn't fair

When a coach leaves for another team you shouldn’t be still running his offense and definitely shouldn’t still be running his tendencies. That was a good defense but they weren’t as good as their performance in the Super Bowl — they were sitting there calling Oakland’s plays as soon as they lined up.

by Ougadas on Nov 27, 2011 7:29 AM PST up reply actions

that ^^^^^

What a joke that game was… Not that Tampa didn’t have a very good Defense, but it wasn’t a fair test.

Deck was TOTALLY stacked. I felt bad for Gannon.

I have many leather-bound books.

by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Nov 27, 2011 10:14 AM PST up reply actions

I felt bad for Jerry

I really wanted to see him get another ring. Yes — it’s true — I actually gave a flying you know what about the Raiders as long as the GOAT was in silver and black. Still couldn’t stand other Raiders fans — not even the ones in Virginia where I was living at the time.

by Ougadas on Nov 27, 2011 10:42 AM PST up reply actions

I'm a kid from the Bay Area

I have no problems rooting for the Raiders.

I typically follow them w/a little interest if they have a QB I like. And yeah, I too was hoping Jerry was going to get another ring.

Really liked the Raiders w/Plunkett (who was a 49ers QB first!) and I’m following them w/a some renewed interest now that they have Palmer.

And yes, many of the fans are ridiculous, but that doesn’t necessarily make them unique to other teams…… ;D

I have many leather-bound books.

by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Nov 27, 2011 11:21 PM PST up reply actions

He actually poked fun at his bad play in parts of the article...

But yes, he must be loving the fact that he’s getting pub

by Panda4Niner on Nov 23, 2011 2:15 PM PST up reply actions

I'll state it again and again , this teams Offense is a 150 yd rush 250 yd pass 50 /50 ratio...

… long sustained drives with tons of ( First downs ) … ball & clock control , efficent football …!!

I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ..( .AleX ) was asked , what do you think about all the game manager talk ... AleX i guess i just managed myself a VIctory ... Extend the Man ...!!

by Edggy on Nov 22, 2011 7:04 PM PST reply actions 1 recs

Absolutely right on, Edggy!!

by 49erFanSince1950 on Nov 22, 2011 7:19 PM PST up reply actions

True true

but without a defense you dont win a championship (looking at the Packers?), and we all know who has one of the best D’s in the NFL

by danknerd49 on Nov 22, 2011 9:09 PM PST up reply actions

actually

the are more like 60-40 pass. Which is probably better.

[Poorly Wrought THING] is what Brian Sabean would have made if he were a [THING-maker] instead of a MLB GM

by zenbitz on Nov 23, 2011 4:03 PM PST up reply actions

Nope , thats not how this team is built , can they pass that much sure , but as stated above = Harbaugh Football ...!!

I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ..( .AleX ) was asked , what do you think about all the game manager talk ... AleX i guess i just managed myself a VIctory ... Extend the Man ...!!

by Edggy on Nov 24, 2011 5:13 AM PST up reply actions

Not a good comparison... Not at all.

Our Defense isn’t as dominant, our offense is considerably better.

Alex is playing at a higher level than Trent did. The playbook has been opened up since the beginning of the season. We’re not playing things conservatively the way the Ravens did in 2000. The Ravens offense got MORE CONSERVATIVE as that season wore on.

This team does what it needs to do to win. Run the football? Fine. Throw it like we did against the Giants and the Cardinals? Fine. I agree w/the poster above who said Dilfer’s probably lovin’ this attention. Probably so but — sorry Trent — Billick never had the faith in you to turn you loose like Harbaugh’s turned Alex loose since the PHL game.

I have many leather-bound books.

by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Nov 22, 2011 9:59 PM PST reply actions

Definitely comparible, since our offense is a little better and their defense is a little better.

I don't want to be greedy, but I want it to be useful, because if everybody agrees that they're more predictable, we know what we're going to get week to week, then why not? Why say: "Good year. We went to the playoffs. We went one-and-out. But, boy, next year! Look what we can do!" No, we're here! -S Young

by rlott#42 on Nov 23, 2011 7:52 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs

It's a pretty good comparison...

Both teams had strong defenses, ok offenses and good special teams. The point is not who was better between the 2000 Ravens and 2011 Niners or is Alex Smith an “elite” QB. The point is seeing the big picture in that we have been winning with mistake-free football and complimentary team play that can lead us to a Super Bowl.

But yes, Smith better than Dilfer, ravens D more dominant than Niners D (albeit it was a different era with more teams pass happy and WR-like TEs, etc).

by Panda4Niner on Nov 23, 2011 2:13 PM PST up reply actions

I think the size of the gaps between our offense and theirs, and our defense and theirs are big enough that the comparison isn’t particularly good.

Once more, coming to you by proxy.

by howtheyscored on Nov 23, 2011 3:02 PM PST up reply actions

Exxxxxxxactly... What he said ^^^^^

We are trying to score a TON OF POINTS… We are in “attack mode” now that the training wheels have been taken off our QB. Just because you run the ball a lot and throw high percentage passes, that doesn’t mean you’re not attacking.

The Ravens offense in 2000 attacked NOTHING. The literally played w/a mindset of NOT F’ING UP first, scoring points second. That’s COMPLETELY DIFFERENT than what our offense is now doing.

And our Defense is balling, but the 2000 Ravens were considerably better. For those of you who remember that Super Bowl vividly, the Ravens D played like they had 14 guys on the field.

I have many leather-bound books.

by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Nov 23, 2011 5:46 PM PST up reply actions

we? our?

Pretty strange adjectives to come from someone who said he doesn’t care if the 49ers win or lose on any given game day.

"One game at a time. Let's just keep it rolling." Justin Smith

by riderless on Nov 23, 2011 6:51 PM PST up reply actions

(yawn)

Okay…

You are the SUPREME 49ERS FAN OF ALL-TIME because you weep like a menstrual woman when they lose a game.

Congratualtions.

I have many leather-bound books.

by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Nov 26, 2011 10:57 PM PST up reply actions

I agree, good comparison

You would never really be able to call one team an exact replica of another team but they are close enough to draw comparisons. The point is (and what I think Trent was trying to say) that you play mistake free offense and dominant defense and you win games. It’s a different strategy than getting an “elite” QB and hoping that people all around him play well enough to win.

Again, these two teams are not exactly the same but I can’t think of any other Super Bowl-winning team that is more like our 2011 Niners than the 2000 Ravens.

by MATTCW on Nov 23, 2011 7:29 PM PST up reply actions

I clicked on the fanpost because of the Panda.

But playing smart is always the right thing to do. If a team has enough talent and they don’t beat themselves they will win.

And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
Follow @manraj76
Magic number For bye week (5 for Saints 4 for Cowboys) For NFC West division title (2 for Seattle 1 for Cards)

by manraj7 on Nov 22, 2011 10:49 PM PST reply actions

This is the reason I never go to ESPN

Everything is “insider” crap. Long live fox sports and niner nation!

WWJHD?

by NoDakNiner on Nov 22, 2011 11:34 PM PST reply actions

I've read some insider articles

That had been “liberated”, and I couldn’t understand why people were paying for the privilege to read that drivel.

by Ougadas on Nov 23, 2011 1:40 AM PST up reply actions

Here's a link to the play by play of the Niners first SB victory

This team is far more dominant relative to this day and age than that team was in its day and age. IMO. Great, opportunistic defense, solid placekicker, patient offense… many similarities, but this team much better, I’d say.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/nfl/super/superbowl-xvi-plays.htm

"Everyone has a plan ’till they get punched in the mouth".- Mike Tyson
Manage THIS....

by whatsURdeal on Nov 23, 2011 6:22 PM PST reply actions