Getting an Early Look at the NFC Playoffs
by WesHanson on Nov 29, 2011 10:53 AM PST
in 49ers Opponents
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PrintI read somewhere that the 49ers' magic number is one and I lapsed into a mental coma of sorts. I tried to do my homework - and Italo Calvino's The Nonexistent Knight is truly a delight and worth the read - but I just couldn't shake it. For the last couple of weeks I have allowed myself to commit what would have been a NN cardinal sin the last few years: I openly admitted to my own brain that the Niners are going to the playoffs.
Cue the necessary reservations about it's not over ‘tils its over thing. Considered this post reservationed. But honestly, the 49ers are going to the playoffs: I just didn't realize until today what that really meant, and now because I read some stupid phrase about one and magic numbers, I am all over this idea. In the immortal words of the most annoying girl on the planet: We so excited.
I really wanted to watch this Monday Night Football showdown between the Giants and Saints, then, to get a sense of what teams could be up and coming on the 49ers' horizon. I was impressed with both teams, though the Giants did get a bit shoved around. Alright, more than a bit. It was like a Charizard fighting a Magikarp: sure, technically a fire wouldn't beat a water in most circumstances, but the Giants' offense was nothing more than a splash, leading to no effect.
That said, I was more interested in watching the Saints anyways, since we played the Giants recently. I won't say too much about this game as it was the first Saints game I have watched this season and I don't have a great feel for the team, but there is something incredible about Drew Brees.
Well-earned adoration and postseason speculation after the jump.
On one pass play to a player I am going to call Mr. F (because I don't remember who it actually was, and, well, I'm all about British people recently), Brees delivered a perfect pass. Mr. F had to go down and to snag the ball, but that was because he was pretty much giving the defender a piggy back ride. Anywhere else, and the defender, Barry Zuckerkorn I think it was, could have gotten to it. The play went for a first down.
On another play, Brees went back to pass, looked deep, and released. I sort of sat up straight in my chair and let out a weird "there's a touchdown." In actual fact, the ball was tipped at the line of scrimmage and sort of Shaun Hill'd its way to the ground. I felt like an idiot, until the next play when Brees looked deep and throw a pass to the two yard line, or something.
That's the weird thing about Brees: his passes seem to pop out of the pocket. I think it is because he is so short (I know, right? I had never ever heard that he was until tonight too) that when the ball comes out from behind the big men on the line it just looks a bit different. I find it fascinating to watch.
But this is the type of player that we may have to beat in the playoffs: a man whose throws are so elegant that he can get a casual watcher to just assume he will throw a touchdown just by looking deep. This post isn't about whether or not we can stop somebody like this (pro-tip: we can. For as much crap as our secondary gets - and I haven't sure been keeping my crap under lock and key - we have looked way better all season than the Giants did tonight, and the Saints too), rather this post is about looking ahead.
So, everybody, click on this link and follow it to the nfl.com "what if the playoffs ended today" page they have. Get acquainted with that information. Take your time. I'll wait. Go on.
(So, uh, Edggy's girlfriend. You're looking mighty fine today. I like your shirt. Hold still so I can read it. What's it say: "Go...!! Niners...!!...!!" Oh that's nice. You and Edggy must have a lot in common).
Oh hey, you guys are back. Cool.
So going off the scenario this page presents, let's be honest, the Saints are clearly the most frightening team we would play after the wildcard. I would much rather play the quarterback-less Bears, that's for sure. After that, probably the Falcons and then the Cowboys.
Honestly, though, I think the Lions sneaking in would scare me more than the Falcons or the Cowboys, which is weird. Don't get me wrong; I would love to see Harbaugh beat Schwartz again and then go vomit on him after the game or something totally wacky. Maybe he could shake his hand and curl his index finger up, rubbing Schwartz's palm in a really creepy way. That wouldn't show up on camera, though, so Schwartz's face and inevitable overreaction would be priceless.
Seriously, though, the Lions really scare me - if I had to pick the one team I wouldn't want to face (besides Green Bay) in the postseason, they might be it. Obviously, as discussed above, the Saints are also on my "shoulda put on more deoderent list." So they are pretty scary, though not "need a new pair of pants" scary.
What about you guys? Rank away. If you can find a way that somehow gets the Redskins and the Eagles into the playoffs as well, that would be really cool too. They would be fun teams to have to play.
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i really hope we don’t play the packers, cowboys, or saints in the playoffs. they will all kill us
"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais
by MichaelClutchtree on Nov 29, 2011 10:58 AM PST reply actions
we will play the packers
at the NFC championship game
Cowboys got lucky last time and our front 7 will demolish the Saints screens.
I am hoping
That the Saints will knock off the Packers for us, and then we can beat them at home for the NFC championship, after thrashing the Cowboys…
"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will
by lottwasgangsta on Nov 29, 2011 11:57 AM PST up reply actions
that would be ideal
Right now, if the Saints get the three seed and win, I think 49ers would play them in the second round if 49ers are the two seed.
by David Fucillo on Nov 29, 2011 12:05 PM PST up reply actions
Right
But as the 3 seed, they would play the 6 seed on wild card weekend; the Packers, assuming they carry the one-seed, would then play the lowest ranked remaining team during the divisional round at home. That’s my understanding; not positive that it’s correct…
So, I want the Saints to drop a bit more, so that they are forced to play the Packers, as I see them having the best chance of knocking them off.
Chicago also remains a possibility to do that, but they have been inconsistent. Curious to see what Dallas does from here on out.
"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will
by lottwasgangsta on Nov 29, 2011 12:17 PM PST up reply actions
they would have to be the #4 seed for the Packers to play them
or they end up with the wildcard spot. Either one works
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
Follow @manraj76
Magic number For bye week (5 for Saints 4 for Cowboys) For NFC West division title (1 for Seattle 1 for Cards)
Saints on the road
Are quite different from at home. I don’t see them winning a playoff game in GB, especially with the Pack coming off a bye. Much as I don’t think they’ll beat the Niners here (recall their road playoff game last season; their should’ve been loss in SF to a flawed Niners team last season; their road losses this season in Tampa, STL, and near loss in Atlanta). In their SB season they had HFA.
- Thank you SF Giants for an incredible 2010 season and painting the City orange & black!
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
True
But I think they have at least one “on the road” upset in them, and they are one of the few teams geared to beat the Packers.
I realize it’s not likely, BUT: a) It’s hard as hell to repeat, and GB will be facing that, and b) After last year’s upset loss to the Seahawks, the Saints will be motivated and focused in the playoffs this year.
That said, I think they get the 3 seed, and we face them at home in the divisional round. I like our chances, but wouldn’t mind a different opponent.
"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will
by lottwasgangsta on Nov 29, 2011 2:40 PM PST up reply actions
Saints
It would be tough in New Orleans, but if the 49ers host the Saints, that opens things up. It’s not gimme game, but there’s a difference between the Saints at home and the Saints on the road.
by David Fucillo on Nov 29, 2011 11:33 AM PST up reply actions
This
Huge difference between the Saints on a sloppy Candlestick field vs the turf in the Superdome.
by AptosNinerFan on Nov 29, 2011 12:01 PM PST up reply actions
Falcons, giants, and bears don't worry
Me that much. We might not beat them but I am not worried about getting blown out by them either.
Cowboys and lions have the potential to put up a lot of points but I would again expect a close game and a 49er win.
Saints and packers… Good news is they aren’t good at stopping the run. Bad news is they can put up a lot of points. It would we fun to watch our d against those offenses.
I would expect a close game. A big dose of gore and rely on our d and special teams. But those two teams worry me because the game can get away from you quickly against them with just a couple of mistakes or missed plays.
In a win or go home situation like the playoffs anything can happen so it could be awesome or devastating for us. That is what makes it so fun to watch.
Joe, Jerry, Steve, and....Who is next?
Saints
Our defense is great, but any QB who can string together consistent, accurate passes can move the ball on the Niners. I think that’s the Saints/Drew Brees. Early in the Giants game Manning was doing it (what was he, 10 for 11 on his first 11 passes?) and Flacco did it on that crucial 4Q drive. Romo did it at the end of the Cowboys game. But the thing with Manning, Romo and Flacco is that they don’t seem to be able to keep up that level of accuracy for an entire game. Rogers and Brees can, and often do, and that’s where my fear lies.
Saints operate heavily on screen passes
Which I think our ILBs can destroy. Their running game isn’t that strong, so you take away the screen and you’ve stopped them from being able to consistently move the chains.
49ers Pass Rush...
Needs to step it up against any of those teams. We know our run D is solid, but the past few weeks haven’t been great displays of pass rushing. The Giants couldn’t touch Brees last night and he had all the time in the world to pick apart their secondary. The 49ers can beat anyone if the entire team plays well, but since the TB game we haven’t seen a completely dominant team effort across the board.
"The principle is competing against yourself. It's about self improvement, about being better than you were the day before." ~Steve Young #8
Agreed
Maybe the beating we absorbed in BAL will fire this team up properly. We had been winning in the several weeks prior, but we didn’t play with the same sense of urgency that we did after losing to the Cowboys week 2.
I am glad we play the Steelers a couple weeks before the playoffs.
"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will
by lottwasgangsta on Nov 29, 2011 12:19 PM PST up reply actions
Steelers
Yeah, it’s a good warmup for the Playoffs. I have more confidence that the 49ers can beat Pitt than I did that they would win at Baltimore. Obviously, playing at home helps a lot (as does a full week to practice), but I think overall Pitt is a better matchup for the 49ers. Pressure and containing Big Ben will be huge because he loves to move around and keep plays alive, which is never good for our secondary.
"The principle is competing against yourself. It's about self improvement, about being better than you were the day before." ~Steve Young #8
by Young_To_Rice on Nov 29, 2011 12:23 PM PST up reply actions
You said it perfectly
I think watching Aldon Smith trying to corrall Roethlisberger is going to be the matchup of that game; I think he is smart enough to run the hell away from Justin, but you can’t escape the Smiths!
Also, I have to believe that 8 days, and a Monday Night Game at home will get this team fired up; not making excuses for the loss in BAL, but if there was ever a scenario where it was understandable, that was it.
"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will
by lottwasgangsta on Nov 29, 2011 12:25 PM PST up reply actions
Hosting a game in the second round.
As I can recall in recent years, there have been examples of how a team playing in an opening round can build momentum quickly, and jump a rusty #2 or #1 seed, that had earned an “idle”, but had amounted to no advantage in the end.
For the 49ers though, this year, I’m tempted to believe that gaining that #2 spot is extremely valuable. It means the defense, unquestionably SF’s strong suit, is rested well, and can jump an opponent effectively. For the offense, the likes of Harbaugh can keep minds sharp in play execution and strategy, plus take an opportunity to study an opponent possibly emptying their playbook to escape the Wild Card. And then there’s the obvious advantage of the bye in a tired defense coming in – perhaps just what a grinding offense like the Niners could use. Finally, it’s an extra week for injuries to heal – we don’t have the greatest depth in some positions, so this might be a HUGE factor.
So, talking playoffs… I’m very optimistic that San Francisco, by maintaining their current seed spot, will pull out a victory in the Divisional Round, and advance to the NFC Championship.
Furthermore, in the event, however unlikely it may be, that the Packers are somehow eliminated in the Divisional Round, and the Championship moves to Candlestick… given the types of games both teams (SF and ?) would have needed to play out in their respective tilts the week previous, and if SF is not hit with significant injuries, the 49ers will be in Indianapolis as NFC Champions…taking in that thought, hang on…
But for any deviations from the previous paragraphed scenario, all bets are off – just enjoy the ride folks. Regardless, our boys are headed back to the playoffs.
I hail from New Sanfranadelphia, apparently.
No o-plan survives first contact intact...
Don’t jinx us…
Looking to put San Fran*six-o* here some time soon!
I’ve been OK with us going to the play-offs for a while. In fact, I have found myself in a weird little lull waiting for the regular season to end so the play-offs can begin. I did the whole ‘it looks like we’re gonna but what if we don’t’ self-contortion a while back, but I reconciled myself to a post-season and stopped worrying about it some time ago.
It’s why the Baltimore loss didn’t bother me. I guess maybe also because I didn’t watch it (the timing of that game made it a very rare game that I couldn’t watch live) so inevitably it stang less, but at the same time, I just threw a can of ‘whatever’ over the Ravens defeat because we’re going to the play-offs anyway, so …
Who we play there? Hmm, not sure. I worry. I worry about losing our first game in the post-season and the whole thing being an anti-climax. I feel like I want to go to the NFC Championship game at least now otherwise it will all be a disappointment. Imagine saying THAT at the height of the lockout!
Fair
As long as we win one more game, we are guaranteed a playoff spot. It’s not impossible that we miss it, but it’s INCREDIBLY unlikely.
My problem is that I think the Saints draw the #3 seed, demolish their WC opponent, and then come to SF for a tough game. Removing home field advantage, I think the Saints and Packers are actually pretty comparable teams. I want a scenario where they go to Green Bay and beat the Pack for us, and then, because they play better at home, lose to us on the road in the NFC championship game.
In looking at other scenarios, I think if we don’t draw the Saints, we will probably face the Cowboys. Win or lose, that’s a game I want to see, and a loss I hope we can repay.
"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will
by lottwasgangsta on Nov 29, 2011 1:12 PM PST up reply actions
Cowgirls-Niners in the post-season would be so 1980s. Bring back Joe I say. He’d still be able to do it for one game …
My playoff guesses
Complete with seedings:
NFC: 1) Packers, 2) Niners, 3) Saints (though I wish they were lower so they could go to Lambeau and beat the Packers for us) 4) Cowboys (though it pains me), 5) Bears, 6) Falcons. Without Suh for a couple key contests, I think the Lions miss the dance in a very tough division.
AFC: 1) Patriots 2) Ravens 3) Houston 4) Oakland 5) Pittsburgh 6) I have no idea…I hope it’s not the Jets, but I don’t see the Bengals pulling it out. MAYBE the Titans? Hopefully not the Denver Tebows.
"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will
so does that mean Suh's suspension came out?
I haven’t heard anything…
2 games
Part of me isn’t sure that’s enough, but we’ll see what he does, and how he does it, when he gets back.
"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will
by lottwasgangsta on Nov 29, 2011 1:12 PM PST up reply actions
We need to get to 13-3 for the #2 seed
I think everybody else will wind up around 12-4 or less. Potential losses are obviously Seachickens in Seattle and Pittsburg. I have had enough of losing though, and would like to see the niners win out, 14-2. This team is great, but it’s not been hitting on all eight. I am excited to see what 10 days of prep can do, and I am hoping to see the Rams get anihilated (un-eye-uh-lay-ted). A Tampa Bay type game would give me high confidence for the divisional round if we get there with a bye.
Also, for the remainder of the season, I will not be sporting my Montana jersey, nor watching the game (same formula for me on both Dallas and Ravens games)…
Looking to put San Fran*six-o* here some time soon!
The Saints probably scare me the most...
Their D is opportunistic enough to stop us, and their passing O could decimate us. But, at home, anything is possible (so getting that 2 seed is very key).
The Packers have a great offense, of course, but their D is awful. I think the Niners have a chance to pull off the upset…both here or at Lambeau. It’ll be cold for a playoff game in GB…so that should, in theory, slow things down a bit. And I think the Niners can control the clock against the Packers with Gore and our TEs. The best way to stop Rodgers is to keep him on the sideline, and I’d like our chances to do so against the Packer Defense.
The rest of the NFC doesn’t bother me. The Niners are good enough to beat any and all of them, especially at home. Will they? Who knows…thats why they play the games! But they should!
"If you can accept losing, you can't win." ~Vince Lombardi
Member of FearTheFin's Mod Squad and The Knights Who Say NI-emi...
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Lions?
No one in the NFC, least of all SF, should be worried about that team. If they can find a way to back into the playoffs, their lack of maturity, a running game, poor ST coverage, and turnover prone QB will make them a one and done squad. I’d prefer they somehow pull a road upset and end up playing here. They, along with Atlanta, would be the most ideal matchup for SF or GB.
- Thank you SF Giants for an incredible 2010 season and painting the City orange & black!
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Great article Wes.
Awesome references. Though I’m more concerned about who we play in the Super Bowl, if we can get there. I think we could take the Raiders, the Ravens, the Steelers, and the Texans, particularly now that they are down to their third string QB. I think we could beat the Patriots, but it’d be a tough match-up. Pass-rush would really have to step it up, as they’ve been pretty damn under-whelming the past few weeks.
"Blackmail is such an ugly word. I prefer "extortion." The "X" makes it sound cool." - Bender Bending Rodriguez
Eleanor Rigby - "Greatest Song" or "The Greatest Song"?
Dobbs is some kind of Young/Smith/Roosevelt hybrid, and will absolutely ruin the NFL experience for the other 31 teams and their few fans.
Lions are toast &
wouldn’t scare me in the least. NO, ATL or Dallas can be scary, tho we get tricky Candlestick which is worth 4 points in the winter against passing teams.
Unless the coaches go Singletary again with Gore up the middle endlessly in the remaining games, thereby cutting his season short, the run game gets bigger in bad weather – which is a given in GB & SF.
I saw that ...!!
I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ..( .AleX ) was asked , what do you think about all the game manager talk ... AleX i guess i just managed myself a VIctory ... Extend the Man ...!!
In a way, I would hate to play Detroit
Just because of the Any Given Sunday thing. It’s possible that any team can beat any other team ( well except for that one team). It has happened before, and it will happen again. Schwartz, the Lions, and POD would be the absolute worst group to drop a game to. But in another way, I would love to play them, because there would be no funner group to humiliate, for the same reasons. I really don’t see Detroit making the post-season, though with Chicago losing Cutler, and the NYG in a tailspin, it could happen.
We have a hologram playing right guard. Great.
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