I would like to introduce a measure of offensive production on a team in relation to defensive production that can measure the overall strength of a team. The 49ers have a convincing lead in the NFL using this measurement. Using the percent more formula which goes Points scored – points scored against divided by points scored against you can see the percentage a team has outscored their opponents by. I did the calculations on a few NFL teams and I came up with some interesting results. The numbers definitely favor defensive teams as it measures against defensive production but it does accurately place strong teams at the top with balanced teams ahead of lopsided.
The percentages go as follows:
1. 49ers – The 49ers outscore their opponents by 74.6%
2. Lions – The Lions outscore their opponents by 62.6%
3. Ravens- The Ravens outscore their opponents by 60%
4. Packers – The Packers outscore their opponents by 53.6%
5. Saints – The Saints outscore their opponents by 40%
6. Bengals – The Bengals outscore their opponents by 39%
7. Bills – The bills outscore their opponents by 27%
8. Jets – The Jets outscore their opponents by 22%
This is a pretty accurate measure of the offensive and defensive power a team has had over the duration of the season so far. Division standings and win loss record support the power measurement for the most part. The measurement does place the Packers 3rd in power while their record says they are 1st, but the record doesn’t always tell all. I wouldn’t take these results and say the 49ers are the best team in the NFL, but the math is convincing enough to warrant some attention.
Interestingly the Giants, who we play next week, have a 6-2 record while only outscoring opponents by 7.6%. This suggests they don’t have the power to back up their record, but it also suggests they keep games close and then find a way to win the close games. We will want to find a way to blow out the Giants if possible. If the game is close the math suggests the Giants have a much better chance of winning than the teams we have faced so far. They specialize in winning games if they can keep it close. The math supports this as well as the scores of their wins. They have lost to teams that are not very good, but those scores were not close.
So that’s it, for what it’s worth. If anyone is interested you can apply this to previous seasons and see what it has to do with the outcome of the Super Bowl. I would guess there is at least some correlation.