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Which Would You Rather Have: Elite Offense, Porous Defense...or vice versa?

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After seeing some of the action this weekend in the NFL, we here at Niners Nation have begun to wonder which, if either, side of the ball is the most important to carry a team. The New England Patriots gave up 252 yards and two TD's to Rex Grossman, but wait, there's more! They also gave up a long-bomb TD pass by a wide receiver and over 120 yards rushing to Roy Helu.

Of course, New England has Tom Brady and what has been an elite offense for years, which tends to help a bit. The 49ers, on the other hand, have one of the NFL's best defenses...but we also have Alex Smith and one of the worst offenses, depending on the categories you look at, etc.

Now, I'm not trying to dump on the offense, more just saying that it's not on par with the Fighting Bradys up there in Foxboro, MA. But it does beg the question: Which would you rather have? The offense that can move down the field seemingly at-will and score 30+ points per game? Or the staunch defense that limits opposing teams, get's takeaways and slows down the game?

Personally I like to have the defense, because I think they can give your offense more opportunities to score, even if it's not the most efficient. However there are still issues with this because if the offense doesn't do it's part, it's inevitable that the defense will eventually give up a play, a score, etc...and get tired being on the field that long.

So what's your preference?

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Does defense "win championships"?

I’m honestly not sure how accurate that is. But if you believe that I assume you’d want the 49ers defense over the Patriots O. I guess that also depends on how much you think of each aspect of the 49ers defense beyond just the dominant rush defense.

I would argue that the Patriots defense is worse than the 49ers offense, but it’s hard to make the comparison.

by David Fucillo on Dec 12, 2011 1:36 PM PST reply actions  

True, and as I said, if the defense has an off day and the offense doesn't do it's part...you're in trouble.

Of course, that can happen no matter which side of the ball is the “elite” side…

We're as good as we play each week, no better, no worse.

by Tre9er on Dec 12, 2011 1:38 PM PST up reply actions  

true

Although it often seems like elite offenses can bounce back quite quickly from struggles. Tom Brady looked abysmal for much of yesterday and eventually blew up (thanks in part to Gronkowski). The Saints were struggling for three quarters before two quick touchdowns in the fourth.

by David Fucillo on Dec 12, 2011 1:44 PM PST up reply actions  

well...

Unless they are the Broncos. You know Tim Tebow made Marion Barber fumble the ball.

by David Fucillo on Dec 12, 2011 2:04 PM PST up reply actions  

This

I think the offense generally has a bit more control over the outcome of ballgames, and so there is an argument for having a GB/NO/NE style offense that can put up enough points that it doesn’t especially matter how many you give up.

Also, as D.F. pointed out above, while defense has historically won championships,the last several super bowl winners, with only a couple exceptions, have been of the aerial assault variety, and that’s hard to stop for sixty minutes (See: the Steelers second half against the Cardinals in ’08).

I will say this: If the weather is BAD when we play Green Bay, I like our chances, and think that we will have the advantage in what we do best, versus their difficulty airing it out with snow, rain, mud, etc. Unless Aaron Rodgers is the USPS.

"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will

by lottwasgangsta on Dec 12, 2011 2:26 PM PST up reply actions  

I want...

a team that consistently scores more points than their opponent, week in and week out, for years and years, and years.

Don’t really care how they do it. Just win.

by Stoney Montana on Dec 12, 2011 2:48 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

The Patriots w/ Brady were winning all of their championships when their defense was actually really good

Also, Manning and the Colts didn’t win their Superbowl until their defense actually starting playing a lot better than normal.

by sanfranfanmdk on Dec 12, 2011 3:02 PM PST up reply actions  

The year the Colts won the Super Bowl...

…their D was ranked 25th in DVOA. The year they lost, their D was ranked 15th.

by Bigmouth on Dec 12, 2011 4:49 PM PST up reply actions  

Defence + Dominant Running Game wins championships

We have both. I fully expect a return to the formula that got us here from now and into the playoffs. , but the play calling simply has to loosen-up and be less predicable in the red-zone, otherwise we’ll be one and done.

by suffrin9erfan on Dec 12, 2011 10:20 PM PST up reply actions  

Elite Offense

I’m starting to believe a lot of defensive performance is out of the players’ control, which is why you see such variability in the data from year to year. It’s possible for a mediocre defense to overperform because it gets a bunch of timely turnovers — and vice versa with a talented defense.

That said, you can win either way, and I love watching a dominant defensive team like ours at work. There’s something so perversely satisfying about stealing another team’s soul, lol.

by Bigmouth on Dec 12, 2011 1:38 PM PST reply actions  

pass defense is especially hard to be consistently good at without getting some breaks.

and playcalling has a lot to do with it. Stopping the run is a lot less complicated.

We're as good as we play each week, no better, no worse.

by Tre9er on Dec 12, 2011 1:43 PM PST up reply actions  

Yup

Stopping the run is comparatively easy, and there are a couple teams, ourselves included, who do it phenomenally well.

Even with good DB’s and a pass rush, it’s hard to consistently stop the past, especially with how zealous they have been this year in throwing PI flags.

Speak of which, we didn’t seem to get any pass rush yesterday in the second half- anyone have any cogent insights into that? I saw some minor league holding here and there, but nothing that stood out while effin’ John Skelton moved the ball on us.

"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will

by lottwasgangsta on Dec 12, 2011 2:28 PM PST up reply actions  

Houston is an incredibly complete team

Running, passing, good defense…

Even with their best defensive player out, and their 2 most important offensive player(s) injured, they are still putting up points.

They look like will be for real for awhile.

"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will

by lottwasgangsta on Dec 12, 2011 6:54 PM PST up reply actions  

I want the best mix of offense and defense that nets us a Superbowl title :D

I think from a purely entertainment standpoint, an exciting offense would be preferred. Long drives are always fun to watch, and with the Niners you have a ton of 3-and-outs. Furthermore, with NFL rules biased towards offensive players, that would be a good way to go, I think.

However, I do enjoy watching our defense and special teams do it’s thing out there. Man oh man I wish we didn’t have that FG Fake taken away.

extrabaggs
"Just your typical Giants scoring rally: A faceburger on the basepaths, two errors from the second baseman and a bases-loaded balk."

by Badly Browned on Dec 12, 2011 1:40 PM PST reply actions  

…and with the Niners you have a ton of 3-and-outs.

Meant to add “from both teams” at the end there.

extrabaggs
"Just your typical Giants scoring rally: A faceburger on the basepaths, two errors from the second baseman and a bases-loaded balk."

by Badly Browned on Dec 12, 2011 1:40 PM PST reply actions  

D'oh reply fail

extrabaggs
"Just your typical Giants scoring rally: A faceburger on the basepaths, two errors from the second baseman and a bases-loaded balk."

by Badly Browned on Dec 12, 2011 1:40 PM PST up reply actions  

definitely an elite offense.

if you have an elite offense, you can cause the opponent to have to throw to come back and therefore your defense will look worse, but you can still get interceptions as a result of a higher volume of passes

an elite defense is very good, but as we see with this team, it’s extremely difficult because even if our defense hold the opponent to 2 touchdowns, we can’t rely on our pathetic offense to come back

however, if we just got a very good QB (kaepernick or someone else), we could go from a decent team to almost the best team in the NFL

"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais

by MichaelClutchtree on Dec 12, 2011 1:49 PM PST reply actions  

49ers Defense Is Not Elite

They are only great against the run, not the pass. Therefore, they dont stand a chance against an elite offense.

by scrappydog on Dec 12, 2011 1:54 PM PST reply actions  

Exactly

Pass Defense > Run Defense in a QB driven league where defense wins championships.

by asmithisaverage on Dec 12, 2011 4:23 PM PST up reply actions  

Is it?

How many time this year have the Packers almost choked away the ball game because they couldn’t run the ball to kill the clock?

And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman

Magic number For bye week (4 for Saints 2 for Cowboys) For NFC West division title 0 (NFC WEST CHAMPIONS)

by manraj7 on Dec 12, 2011 4:27 PM PST up reply actions  

Elite defense

Because a porous offense can be immediately upgraded with one dynamic player (QB, WR, RB) whereas an elite defender can be negated by the offense targeting the other ten players. I recall the Niners’ lack of defense holding them back in ’93, ’98, and ’02.

You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on Dec 12, 2011 1:55 PM PST reply actions  

Agree Tre-

And while one game does not a trend make, I think one thing an elite defense is going to need, more and more, is a truly phenomenal player, and there are really only maybe a handful of those in the NFL. I would argue that our defense has two of those, and the absence of one of them yesterday was absolutely noticeable, as was our previously overlooked tendency to kick too many field goals, and not score enough TDs.

The Jets have one in Revis, the Steelers in Polamalu (most years), and a few other teams, but good offenses with good lines and QBs are essentially plug and play when it comes to receivers, but for an outstanding D, you need some incredibly unique talents, and those just don’t come around that often.

"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will

by lottwasgangsta on Dec 12, 2011 4:24 PM PST up reply actions  

Rules favor the offense more and more

There’s no way to fully stop a great offense. Look at GB and NO where the D is pretty loose to be polite, and they are still winning/storming games. Only on D can you have a 50+ yard penalty called on you, and a team with a great QB and good receivers can get those penalties called. A match up of Elite D going against an Elite O.. IMO the offense is gonna have the upper hand.
The elite offenses can also move the ball incredibly fast, making it even harder to win a shoot out, even when the other team plays out of its mind good.

by marinfrs on Dec 12, 2011 4:18 PM PST up reply actions  

The 2 aspects that always come to mind when you speak of Elite Offenses

is that they have Elite QB’s & that they’ve had years in the same system (GB, NE & NO) to fully comprehend every nuances.

In the Niners case, the Defense has run some variation of the 3-4 since Mike Nolan was hired and alot of the defensive players have been together for years meaning that there were always going to be far ahead of the offense in that respect.

Elite offenses arent built overnight, many will say that it falls on the shoulders of Alex & that the 49ers will never have an elite offense while he is the QB.

Tre brought up the example of NE & I think that’s an important example because of the fact that outside of Welker & maybe Gronkowski that offense is a patchwork offense at best. They’ve developed & groomed their players over the years using the same system

GB & NO are great examples of employing a system & then drafting pretty good players to fit the system

by Lok on Dec 12, 2011 1:56 PM PST reply actions  

Peyton Manning did the same thing in Indy...no matter who WR's were, he produced.

Because he knew system so well, and he could literally coach guys where to be, where he wanted them, etc.

We're as good as we play each week, no better, no worse.

by Tre9er on Dec 12, 2011 1:58 PM PST up reply actions  

Very true

to me Payton is such a rare case that I dont think we are ever going to see a QB quite like him again. He is not only the QB but the de facto OC

by Lok on Dec 12, 2011 2:00 PM PST up reply actions  

The only thing I'll say about Alex is that I don't think he'll ever be a really accurate passer

in terms of putting the ball in the perfect spot every time. Chemistry/time with guys/system will help, but it’s not going to change 180

We're as good as we play each week, no better, no worse.

by Tre9er on Dec 12, 2011 1:59 PM PST up reply actions  

That is so important, especially in the WCO

it is so dependent on timing & accuracy. Maybe it is true what Urban Meyer said that once he fully understands every aspect of an offense than he will become that QB that everyone thought he could be

by Lok on Dec 12, 2011 2:03 PM PST up reply actions  

The thing is

I don’t think the Niners have a “porous offense”. I think we have a decent, middle-of-the-pack offense. With that, and an elite defense, I would take our situation going forward than most other teams in the league. Yes, we have numerous issues that need to see improvement in the coming weeks/years, but I’m not freaking out and declaring our offense to be garbage.

by BruinMW on Dec 12, 2011 2:00 PM PST reply actions  

Since 2000...

The Super Bowl winners were:

Rams – Offense
Ravens – Defense
Pats – Offense
Bucs – Defense
Pats – Offense
Pats – Offense
Steelers – Defense
Colts – Offense
Giants – Defense
Steelers – Defense
Saints – Offense
Packers – Offense

“Offensive” teams: 7
“Defensive” teams: 5

It’s close. But if you account for the fact that the Steelers and Giants both had pretty decent offenses to go with their defense, that leaves only 2 Super Bowl winners with elite defenses and average/below average offenses.

Based on that I’d go offense.

by Stoney Montana on Dec 12, 2011 2:08 PM PST reply actions  

Correction

The 2001 Pats were a defense and special teams based squad that controlled the clock with running and short passes. The Brady of then is not the Brady of now. That makes it even over twelve years. It could also be argued that the latter two NE champs won due to their defense being able to shutdown Peyton in the playoffs both times, and since the aging and slippage of that defense they have not won a SB since (or even a playoff game the past three seasons).

I think the Saints winner was more of a balanced team, as they could not have made the SB much less won it without their ability to force so many turnovers (recall the INT of Favre to save the NFCC game, then the clinching INT of Manning in the SB).

You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on Dec 12, 2011 2:16 PM PST up reply actions  

I would actually argue

that of the Patriots 3 SB’s, 2 out of 3 were defensively led efforts, from teams that had “just enough” offense, and stout AND timely defense.

I would also argue that the rule changes from the past couple years favor offensive teams, which you have seen with all most of the teams that have participated during that time (Even the Colts who lost to the Saints, and the Steelers last year, when their Defense wasn’t quite as good as ’08, but their offense was pretty solid.)

3 years doesn’t make a trend, but I suspect that from here on out, offensively led teams will begin to pull away with the SB lead.

"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will

by lottwasgangsta on Dec 12, 2011 2:33 PM PST up reply actions  

Good points

Rule changes are making it more difficult to build (or even understand) what makes an elite defense, which in turn makes it easier to try and win with offense. Add all the turf fields in bad weaher cities plus dome stadiums and it allows for more video game style play.

To me it means if a franchise can build an elite defense, they would be unique and play opponents in ways that they are unaccustomed to being played.

You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on Dec 12, 2011 2:37 PM PST up reply actions  

Almost all of those "offensive teams" had average or above average defenses that year.

I think this comes down to preference of style rather than actual effectiveness. When you have such a small sample size and so much luck involved in a Super Bowl run, I don’t think you can come to any real conclusion.

Personally, I prefer a balanced team with a good offense and a good defense. That’s the best kind of football to me, because you get contributions from everyone on the field and it emphasizes a coaching battle and mistake-free football. Also, I feel like every player on the team deserves the win, rather than just the QB and WRs winning it in spite of the defense, or vice versa. The Niners were that for most of this year, but the past couple games have had a pretty lackluster offensive effort, and the defense has given up some big plays.

by Rhombus on Dec 12, 2011 3:28 PM PST up reply actions  

If this was a roulette table....

I’d put my money on defense

by mrb24 on Dec 12, 2011 4:24 PM PST via mobile up reply actions  

Lets not forget...

about an elite offensive team that won 5 Super Bowls in the 80’s and 90’s.

Maybe you heard of them?

by Stoney Montana on Dec 12, 2011 2:11 PM PST reply actions  

Their defense was very good

And, they had Ronnie Lott, which did a lot for intimidation, turnovers, causing the other teams receivers to hear footsteps.

But those teams were led by Montana and Rice, an offense people still hadn’t adjusted to, and some very good running backs.

I just wouldn’t call their defense “equally elite”. My $ .02

"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will

by lottwasgangsta on Dec 12, 2011 2:35 PM PST up reply actions  

Yet there SB years came when their defense was top 10

They weren’t a SB team in ’81 until they traded for Dean. In ’84 the entire secondary went to the Pro-Bowl (when such voting meant something more than popularity contest).

The ’84 defense did not allow 1 TD in two NFC playoff games (only 1 in three total games) including one shutout.
The ’88 defense allowed 1 TD in three total playoff games.
The ’89 defense allowed 2 TD in three playoff games (all in the 4Q of blowout wins).

The ’94 SB champs is the only one that can be said to have been far more reliant on the offense.

You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on Dec 12, 2011 2:21 PM PST up reply actions  

not even

94 had the 2nd best rushing defense and Defensive MVP. We had balanced teams during the dynasty. 89 had 1 offense and 4 defense. Can’t make teams like that anymore

by mcwagner on Dec 12, 2011 2:25 PM PST up reply actions  

Well look at it this way

49ers = Elite Defense/ Middle of the pack Offense

Packers= Elite Offense/ Middle of the pack Defense

OFFENSE!!!

by Collin B on Dec 12, 2011 2:16 PM PST reply actions  

I think you mistyped

bottom third offense for the niners, bottom third defense for the packers.

by asmithisaverage on Dec 12, 2011 4:25 PM PST up reply actions  

Didn't know that having the 15th rank D in PPG is bottom third

And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman

Magic number For bye week (4 for Saints 2 for Cowboys) For NFC West division title 0 (NFC WEST CHAMPIONS)

by manraj7 on Dec 12, 2011 4:29 PM PST up reply actions  

I assume you are speaking of the packers?

That’s because their offense keeps their horrid defense off the field.

by asmithisaverage on Dec 13, 2011 7:21 AM PST up reply actions  

Question for everyone: Do any of you think that the pieces are here to have an "elite offense"?

Kaepernick (24), Crabtree (24), Morgan (26), VD (27), Walker (27), KW (23) & Hunter (23) none older than 27

Are those pieces that can someday be turned into an elite offense by this coaching staff

by Lok on Dec 12, 2011 2:20 PM PST reply actions  

It all hinges on Kaepernick

If we turns out to be a franchise QB, then yes, that can be one hell of an offense. If he turns out just average then we’re right where we started.

by neder on Dec 12, 2011 2:24 PM PST up reply actions  

Solid young core...

but that WR corps looks only slightly above average to me.

by AptosNinerFan on Dec 12, 2011 2:40 PM PST up reply actions  

Solution? Colts 0-13, Peyton Manning Offseason, Alex Smith Contract Up

it’s games like this past one that have to make us wonder if the 49ers and peyton manning are a fit, if only short term. most of those superbowl teams were pretty balanced. if manning was matched with this defense (pending he’s good to go and the colts deal him), the 49ers could possibly be more dominant than this years Packers.

by Dylan DeSimone on Dec 12, 2011 2:20 PM PST reply actions  

And Tom Brady as a back up

If where gonna dream. With his neck screwed up as bad as it is, I dont think he will make it thru a season. It would most likely end up like Montana in KC, getting injured at the end of the season and wiping out a great year. I would rather build a team that can win than patching together a QB made of tiffany glass and hoping it doesnt blow up.

by marinfrs on Dec 12, 2011 4:24 PM PST up reply actions  

There is one main difference between the two:

Offense scores points.

If you have an elite offense and bad defense, you can keep up simply because you are great at scoring.
If you have an elite defense and a bad offense, and the defense has a bad day, you are screwed.

As much as I enjoy elite defense, I’d take the Packers/Patriots offense in a heartbeat over one of the better defenses in the NFL. Not talking about the Niners D in particular just in general.

by neder on Dec 12, 2011 2:22 PM PST reply actions  

The Ravens have had the Elite Defense of the last decade

And I feel like the one superbowl they won was kind of fluky actually.

The Patriots have had the best Offense of the past decade.. 3 superbowls. Should of had more.

by Collin B on Dec 12, 2011 2:23 PM PST reply actions  

Pats D won them one SB, perhaps two

They haven’t had more because their defense wasn’t good enough.

You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on Dec 12, 2011 2:38 PM PST up reply actions  

Not one of the Pats Superbowls were won because of their offense

All three were down to the defense. The one season where the team relied heavily on the offense, was the season they lost to the Giants.

Alex Smith 86%+ QB rating with 22+ TDs this season, hopefully! :)

by teekay on Dec 12, 2011 3:05 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Agreed.

New England won their Super Bowls on defense. Not sure where the whole “Patriots Awesome Offense Won Three Super Bowls!!!” misconception came from.

"Blackmail is such an ugly word. I prefer "extortion." The "X" makes it sound cool." - Bender Bending Rodriguez

Eleanor Rigby - "Greatest Song" or "The Greatest Song"?

"Sitting on a sofa on a Sunday afternoon..."


by jbrown63 on Dec 12, 2011 3:52 PM PST up reply actions  

well in 2007 they had one of the best offenses of all time and they beat the Giants who had an elite D in the Superbowl

oh wait a second…

And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman

Magic number For bye week (4 for Saints 2 for Cowboys) For NFC West division title 0 (NFC WEST CHAMPIONS)

by manraj7 on Dec 12, 2011 4:21 PM PST up reply actions  

It's not a total misconception...

…2/3 Super Bowls they won, their offense was ranked higher in DVOA than their defense. But you’re right, these were all very good or great defensive teams.

by Bigmouth on Dec 12, 2011 4:57 PM PST up reply actions  

Vice Versa. You can coach up offense.

You need to draft and acquire defense. That’s harder to do.

Our front seven on D is a bunch of agree men. Our suckage on offense is to large degree a lack of continuity and practice within a good offensive system.

by Mindless on Dec 12, 2011 2:27 PM PST reply actions  

If we are allowed to wish

I want a franchise QB any day. Building a tough defense is hard because every man must be strong and play well together. An offense can hide weaknesses better. If I get to pick a franchise QB I always take him. However, getting a franchise QB is the hardest thing to do and it is really all luck when it comes down to it.

by mcwagner on Dec 12, 2011 2:28 PM PST reply actions  

Andrew Luck is not a franchise quarterback

he has never played in the NFL. Still an unknown. Remember, fans once wanted us to lose to the Texans to get Reggie Bush.
I myself could not root for the Colts as I see the team lie down. Its a disgrace.

by mcwagner on Dec 12, 2011 3:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Scouts are not morons.

If everybody with experience says that he is the best prospect since Peyton Manning that’s what it is.

by Mindless on Dec 12, 2011 3:23 PM PST up reply actions  

They aren't fortune tellers

They have been wrong before. That’s not really my argument about Andrew Luck, just that nothing is a guarantee

by mcwagner on Dec 12, 2011 3:29 PM PST up reply actions  

If you are talking about guarantees

There is always the elephant of a career ending injury. Like one that sidelined the current Colt QB.

Of course there is no guarantee. But Luck is in fact the best QB prospect in years.

by Mindless on Dec 12, 2011 3:54 PM PST up reply actions  

According to you, absolutely.

"I believe in you guys in the media. I believe that you will find a way to doubt this team. Just as long as what's written is written against us we'll be happy." - Jim Harbaugh

by SanFranciscoKnights on Dec 12, 2011 7:02 PM PST up reply actions  

So was Tim Couch

People expected him to turn into Manning.

Site decorum happens, on your way from college to the Hall of Fame.

I think there’s almost no way Andrew Luck doesn’t turn out to be at least very good, but we shall see.

"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will

by lottwasgangsta on Dec 13, 2011 10:07 AM PST up reply actions  

Couch

It is worth noting that Tim Couch also came from Hal Mumme’s spread offense while Luck comes from an offense that better transitions to the offense. I had a friend who went to Kentucky during the Couch years and I watched a lot of their football. It was incredibly entertaining (called basketball on a football field) but not a shock it didn’t quite translate.

by David Fucillo on Dec 13, 2011 10:10 AM PST up reply actions  

Indeed

To some extent, the same observation could be made about Alex. Not knocking him, merely pointing out that what he excelled at in college doesn’t really exist in the NFL.

I DO think Luck will transition well, I am just over the amount of hype he has had for an entire years, when he is still eight months away from playing a single NFL down.

"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will

by lottwasgangsta on Dec 13, 2011 10:32 AM PST up reply actions  

The rules have been changed to favor the offense

trying to 85’s Bears your opponents is like pushing a boulder up a hill.

It can be done but it’s hard as hell.

by AptosNinerFan on Dec 12, 2011 2:35 PM PST reply actions  

Very rarely can a team score on every drive

Also, it is very rare for a team to be shut out. So I’d go with an elite defense over an elite offense. However, elite offenses can score on elite defenses, as there are plays where a ball is thrown so brilliantly, that even in outstanding coverage, the receiver can make the play.

Alex Smith 86%+ QB rating with 22+ TDs this season, hopefully! :)

by teekay on Dec 12, 2011 2:52 PM PST reply actions  

You need both, but...

If we’re talking elite and porous, I’ll take the offense every day. The name of the game is scoring more points than the opponent. I’ll take my chances the weak defense can make a play at some point in the game to make the difference. Also, if the offense is that elite, very few teams will be able to match the points even against the weak defense.

Look at when the Saints won the Superbowl. Elite offense, and while their defense gave up yards and points, they also forced a heck of a lot of turnovers. A defense can be porous but still dangerous. Now, if you want to take ALL of that away, I might change my tune.

But lets look at the other way around… A weak offense and an elite defense can be both good and bad. How weak is this offense? Because if it doesn’t move the ball nor score many points, but it doesn’t turn the ball over, then you’re in good shape (ala today’s 49ers). However, an elite defense gets over-strained when the offense is not only weak but turnover prone.

In short, my answer: “It depends.” Philosophically (in this day and age), I think an elite offense beats all. 35 years ago, defense ruled (Steelers). But since the days when the 49ers began their dynasty, the NFL has rapidly morphed into an offensive direction.

Also… offensive dominance is so exciting. “My” 49ers could score at anytime against anyone. There’s always a feeling that you can win anytime. Defensive philosophy has a tendency to choke teams from being as great as they can be.

Let me put it this way: If I came from a “school of thought” it would be along the lines of Steve Young. I’ve always been with him on “the artistry of quarterbacking.” Nobody on defense can dictate terms like an elite quarterback can on offense.

Jim Harbaugh AND Alex Smith are our future!
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS: WORLD CHAMPIONS!
Touchdown Forty Niners!
Giants Baseball: Torture. It hurts so good.

by Effage on Dec 12, 2011 3:04 PM PST reply actions  

elite offense

I really do like touchdowns.

by McKara on Dec 12, 2011 3:51 PM PST reply actions  

Unless...

…your QB is Peyton Manning. Otherwise, agreed.

by Bigmouth on Dec 12, 2011 4:59 PM PST up reply actions  

You mean the only time the Colts won a SB they ran their way to a victory?

And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman

Magic number For bye week (4 for Saints 2 for Cowboys) For NFC West division title 0 (NFC WEST CHAMPIONS)

by manraj7 on Dec 12, 2011 6:14 PM PST up reply actions  

I do no know lately it seems, you can get away with a porous defense, if you have an elite offense.

The only asterisk next to that porous defense, is that they have to every once in awhile force a turnover, or be known as a defense who takes advantage of turnover opportunities.

You would have to go back to 2003, to find a team with a porous offense and an elite defense that won a superbowl.

Of course, Ideally you would want a good combination of both. BUT, like I said, lately it seems as long as your defense can force the occassional turnover, you can get away with having a porous defense,

If you go back starting with 1998, I basically count 2 teams with a porous offense, and an elite defense who won the title.

Going back to that same date, I count 7 teams who I consider had a porous, yet opportune defense, and had an elite offense.

So since 1998 2/14 had bad offenses and elite defenses, and also since 1998 7/14 had an elite offense and a bad defense. 5/14 I considered to be pretty well-rounded.

Both the last two years the NFL champions have had elite offenses, while having a fairly porous defense, yet those defenses did make the occasional timely play when needed.

So just solely looking at basically the facts…..Myself, personally, I would much rather have an elite offense and a porous YET OPPORTUNE defense.

Sometimes I wake up grumpy; other times I let her sleep.

by chicagobullies on Dec 12, 2011 4:19 PM PST reply actions  

Can you find a team with a bad D and an elite O that won a Superbowl?

And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman

Magic number For bye week (4 for Saints 2 for Cowboys) For NFC West division title 0 (NFC WEST CHAMPIONS)

by manraj7 on Dec 12, 2011 4:22 PM PST up reply actions  

last two years fairly porous defenses?

The Saints had the most turnovers in the NFL the year they won the superbowl. Last year they didn’t and didn’t even win their division

The Packers last year had the 2nd best D in PPG and the 2nd most INT so where can I sign up for that porous D?

And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman

Magic number For bye week (4 for Saints 2 for Cowboys) For NFC West division title 0 (NFC WEST CHAMPIONS)

by manraj7 on Dec 12, 2011 4:25 PM PST up reply actions  

The Saints in -09

They weren’t a bad defense, but they were pretty porous, they just forced turnovers at a pretty good rate due to high risk/high reward style play; it’s sort of like GB is doing this year: you can gamble, as a DB, on trying to get an interception if you know that, should you fail, your offense can bail you out.

"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will

by lottwasgangsta on Dec 12, 2011 4:26 PM PST up reply actions  

A bad run defense

But, good at rushing the passer with a lead, forcing teams into turnovers, shootouts, etc.

Nonetheless, it proves the larger point.

"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will

by lottwasgangsta on Dec 12, 2011 6:51 PM PST up reply actions  

True dat...

…they were 13th in DVOA against the pass.

by Bigmouth on Dec 13, 2011 9:15 AM PST up reply actions  

I'll take the team with the elite D and elite ST

Because I’ll take the team that comes with that. I don’t have the stats that the broadcasters have but teams generally score more TD when they have better starting possessions. So an elite ST can make the D and the O both look better. Just need an offense that can capitalize on red zone opportunities.

And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman

Magic number For bye week (4 for Saints 2 for Cowboys) For NFC West division title 0 (NFC WEST CHAMPIONS)

by manraj7 on Dec 12, 2011 4:34 PM PST reply actions  

if it's a picture of Favre's weiner

I’m going to be very pissed off…

"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will

by lottwasgangsta on Dec 12, 2011 5:36 PM PST up reply actions  

What I don't understand about that article is why they gave that distribution

aren’t O and D on the field the same amount of snaps?

And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman

Magic number For bye week (4 for Saints 2 for Cowboys) For NFC West division title 0 (NFC WEST CHAMPIONS)

by manraj7 on Dec 12, 2011 11:36 PM PST up reply actions  

My reading from the article is that its based on an assessment of impact

they must have assigned scores to every play in terms of impact to final outcome (what they call expected points value). Actually, the second link is from Advanced NFL Stats and Keith, the writer of the first article is their Chief Analyst. I think that article also provides more insight into their thinking.

by LombardiBackToGB on Dec 13, 2011 6:49 AM PST up reply actions  

ELITE OFFENSE

I want a team with an elite offense but with an opportunistic ST or Defense… and thats how you win championships.

by Xan101 on Dec 12, 2011 5:14 PM PST reply actions  

offense

Only to make for a more interesting game to watch. Although the Ravens game was pretty exciting.

by 49RFAN on Dec 12, 2011 7:33 PM PST via mobile reply actions  

Just a little research..

I think the whole goal of the offense is to score, and the whole goal of the defense is to stop the offense from scoring. All the yardage and efficiancy and qb rating and rushing yardage….I think all that is EXTRA noise data. The most important thing is the score. Points per Game is what I base the top offense and defense on.

Since 1990 we have had 21 SBs. Teams in the top 5 of PPG on offense have won 12 of them, and 14 in the top 5 of PPG on defense have won. It seems to be pretty even in that area.

Going even deeper, 21 playoffs since 1990. Looking at the cream of the crop….if you ended up in the top 2 in PPG on Defense you made the playoffs everytime. You won the SB 10 times and lost it once. You lost in the conference finals 10 times, Lost in the divisional finals 16 times, and lost in the wild card game 3 times. Now on offense, this is what stood out to me, 6 teams in the top 2 in PPG MISSED THE PLAYOFFS. 6 of the best offenses in the league didn’t get to show off in the most important time of the season. They did win 9 Sbs. They lost 8 Sbs. They lost in the conference finals 6 times. Lost in the divisional finals 9 times, and lost in the wild card game 4 times.

So…..if you have a dominant defense you make the playoffs, while if you have a dominant offense it isn’t a sure thing. If you have a dominant defense you are more likely to win a SB, but not by much.

I pick a dominant defense if this is truly the case. I would rather have a chance to get to the playoffs and get a chance to win the whole thing, then to possibly miss the playoffs and not get that chance.

by Dukeston1 on Dec 13, 2011 7:02 AM PST reply actions  

I did read this...

which is why I put this into the context I did. That article is basically writing about yards/play, whether it be pass or run…..well getting 99 yards on a play and then not being able to score is not very valuable IMO. The thing that matters most, again IMO, is scoring and keeping the other team from scoring…everything else is filler.

by Dukeston1 on Dec 13, 2011 8:33 AM PST up reply actions  

Thats what I thought at first but there seems to be a method to the madness...

dont know if you dug deeper into why they are taking the position they are but see this as well -

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2007/07/what-makes-teams-win-part-1.html. Click on links at bottom to read remaining parts, especially part 3.

by LombardiBackToGB on Dec 13, 2011 7:08 PM PST up reply actions  

It is definately interesting reading.

But again I see nothing there that talks about pts scored or pts stopped….all I see is efficiency…I see turnovers….all important aspects of course….but again, for me, it is all filler to the most important aspect of football. Can you score on the defense? Can you stop the offense from scoring? Thats the bottom line in my book.

by Dukeston1 on Dec 13, 2011 8:04 PM PST up reply actions  

I like Taco's ..!!

I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ..( .AleX ) was asked , what do you think about all the game manager talk ... AleX i guess i just managed myself a VIctory ... Extend the Man ...!!

by Edggy on Dec 13, 2011 7:21 AM PST reply actions  

I'll take an elite offense any day

If your elite offense has an off night it just takes a couple of good plays to make up for it
If your elite defense has a bad day you can be down and out by half time even if they start having a good day the points are already on the board

by mississippisaintsfan on Dec 13, 2011 9:20 AM PST reply actions  

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