Is Alex Smith Good Enough To Win The Super Bowl?
by A.Gordon on Dec 22, 2011 8:50 PM PST
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PrintJim Harbaugh advanced the notion of Alex Smith being pro bowl worthy after the 49ers domination of the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football. I'm sure a lot of people read that and dismiss it as either bluster or the result of smoking way too much herb (maybe Harbaugh was parting with Lincecum before the press conference?).
Let's take him seriously for a second and look at the stats. I don't care about the pro bowl. So, lets consider the question that matters most to 49ers faithful: Is Alex Smith good enough to win the Super Bowl?
Let's play a game: Guess which stat belongs to Alex Smith, the other 5 are from Joe Montana and Steve Young's Super Bowl winning seasons. (For ease of comparison, I have extrapolated all stats to a standard 16 game season) (Answers after the jump.)
Here are the rankings:
| Player | Year | Cmp | Rank | Cmp% | Rank | TD | Rank |
| Montana | 1981 | 311 | 3 | 63.7 | 4 | 19 | 5 |
| Montana | 1984 | 279 | 4 | 64.6 | 3 | 28 | 3 |
| Montana | 1988 | 272 | 6 | 59.9 | 6 | 21 | 4 |
| Montana | 1989 | 334 | 1 | 70.2 | 2 | 32 | 2 |
| Young | 1994 | 324 | 2 | 70.3 | 1 | 35 | 1 |
| Smith | 2011 | 273 | 5 | 61.4 | 5 | 18 | 6 |
| Player | Year | TD% | Rank | INT | Rank | INT% | Rank |
| Montana | 1981 | 3.9 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 2.5 | 5 |
| Montana | 1984 | 6.5 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 2.3 | 4 |
| Montana | 1988 | 4.5 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 2.5 | 5 |
| Montana | 1989 | 6.7 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 2.1 | 2 |
| Young | 1994 | 7.6 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 2.2 | 3 |
| Smith | 2011 | 4.1 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1.3 | 1 |
Obviously, Alex Smith was not going to dominate these stats, but the surprising thing is he is ranked last in only one category, Touch Downs, and by a single score. His top ranking in interceptions and interception percentage seems to be historically good , even when compared to the Super Bowl winning seasons of Hall of Fame quarterbacks Joe Montana and Steve Young.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.
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Yes
And I dont understand why people think he cant. I think we have the 13th ranked scoring offense. In my opinion the AFC team in the superbowl will be the Patriots. And I think he could easily put up about 25 points. Which is enough for a win with our defense. And if its against the Ravens… I would enjoy seeing Jim Harbaugh get a 2nd chance. I have a feeling things would turn out different… side note.. thats my favorite part about Harbaugh. We now have a coach who will win these games. One who saw that game against the Ravens and used that tape to help dominate the Steelers. We are in for a great decade of football here at NinersNation in my opinion. We are no one and done like the Chiefs and Browns and Dolphins of the past few years.
"Offense"
I think some of those points have come off of special teams and defense as well. I don’t think it messes with the stat too much, but I thought I would throw that out there.
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This is a good question.
To often I feel I’m reading really skewed “yes” answers. A lot of emphatic Alex Smith is a Super Bowl QB responses with a legal teams worth of clauses:
• A top ranked defense
• 49ers all-time leading rusher running constantly for 100 yards
• Offensive line that doesn’t give up much pressure
• Receivers that don’t drop balls
• A Pro-Bowl, clutch kicker
• A Pro-Bowl field changing Punter
• Top ranked special team unit in all areas
• A great Head Coach
• A good Offensive Coordinator
• A good Defensive Coordinator
• A healthy roster
Need a lot of these things to win a SB. Yet if a team has all this going for them it could win a SB with a lot of unheralded QBs.
That’s the idea behind team sports, contributions from a lot of different places.
Attack this day with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. ~ Jack Harbaugh
by Virginia9er on Dec 23, 2011 10:56 AM PST up reply actions
Yes but.....
He’s got to learn to throw the deep, side-line routes in bounds!!!!
And he did!
crabtree 41 yard pass in seattle proved it!
Interesting analysis
But being 5-6 in all but one category kinda debunks your thought of he’s only last in one category.
As I’ve said before, all we have to do is score TDs in the RZ. Alex has led a ton of drives this year. We move the ball and often have the advantage of a short field thanks to our stellar D, which limits the yards totals. I don’t care if we throw it in or we run it in. If we score TDs and get in the mid-upper 20s each game, we have a good chance of winning the SB.
I think it shows one thing above all, actually
If you look at all of those stats and the rankings, it shows Joe Montana below on most and above on one (TD). Think about it, it was Joe Montana’s first year in SF as the starting QB in a new system later branded the ‘West Coast Offense’. This is Alex Smith’s first year in the ‘West Coast Offense’ – style of football. I think next year, if the team keeps him, will really tell eveyone what we have in Alex Smith and it really could be special. IF, and that is a huge ‘if’ the 49ers make it to the Super Bowl, it wont be because of Alex Smiths stellar play, it will be more so because of the teams stellar play.
If anybody truly remembers, “the catch” was actually Joe Montana’s attempt to throw the ball out of the back end of the end zone for the next down. He wasn’t truly trying to hit Dwight Clark in the end zone. Just so happened that Dwight Clark had some superhuman “ups” on that play. Point is, in 1981 the team was really trying new things out and they played so remarkably well with the scheme that Bill Walsh implemented that they beat everybody in the playoffs and then won the Super Bowl in a nail biter. The team’s are very comparable to each other.
Bottom line I think Alex Smith, AND the rest of the team, can win a Super Bowl. Of course we have to face a lot really talented teams to even get there – which we will have to wait and see. But let’s face it there have been worse QB that have won the SB before.
by Chaotic9erFan on Dec 23, 2011 6:23 AM PST up reply actions
Correction
“it shows Joe Montana below on most and above on one (TD).”
While this is a true statement, I need to add that the completions and completion percentage for Montana (1981) were better than Smith this year. Smith has been better than Montana (1988) for those categories.
Then again I think we can all agree that Montana was more accurate than Smith except that year.
by Chaotic9erFan on Dec 23, 2011 6:31 AM PST up reply actions
You're wrong about "The catch"
They practiced that play over and over in practice. The concept was to put the ball in only a place where Clark could get it.
Just thought that needed correction.
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Watch this to refresh your memory
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EFsBSbx5UKY
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To further confirm it from the horses mouth. He wasn't trying to throw it away:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XhBUgW87NmA
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Okay, sorry...my bad
I know I watched a show a while back that said he was trying to throw it away to have another crack, but, I must be wrong. Age catches up to all of us.
by Chaotic9erFan on Dec 23, 2011 8:56 AM PST up reply actions
Don't worry... I had to double check as well.
But I was pretty sure that was a designed play that they worked on a lot. Solomon was the first option and Clark the second… Montana had to get it up a bit higher to get it over Too Tall Jones’ hands.
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Def. a reason they called him Ed ‘Too Tall’ Jones
by Chaotic9erFan on Dec 23, 2011 9:34 AM PST up reply actions
I guess I didn’t really articulate my point clearly…. You are correct, for most of those stats, Smith is on the bottom of the rankings. You have to consider the comparison group, the Super Bowl winning seasons of two Hall of Fame quarterbacks who can easily be argued were among the best players in history.
Which raises my point; for whatever talent Smith brings to the table, the Team has allowed him to put up numbers that fall within the range of greatness set by Joe Montana and Steve Young. Of course, Alex Smith is not as good a quarter back as either were, but this year the 49ers team and scheme have allowed Smith to perform at that level.
Alex Smith doesn't have a Jerry Rice, John Taylor, or Terell Owens to throw it to. Or the same offensive line those guys had.
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Half the credit to those quarterback’s success goes to those guys as well. There were times that all three WR’s MADE those quarterbacks look really, really good on some poor throws.
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You also have to consider that passing is greatly inflated in the current era from even the time that Steve Young played. Compared to his environment, Alex Smith’s numbers do not compare so well.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Dec 23, 2011 12:33 PM PST up reply actions
Not really Marino was throwing 4K, on a pretty consistent basis...
There were some others, Warren Moon, Jim Kelly, etc…
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Okay, so maybe Jim Kelly was a bad example because I just looked.
But in looking back, it seems like a lot of QB’s were throwing for 3500-4000 yards which is a standard today.
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Interception rates have gotten much lower and completion percentages are much higher than they were even ten years ago. I mean, Jeff George left football in 2001 with a career average 57% completion rate, and that was better than average for the time he was in the league. That would be considered a joke today. Marino was also probably far and away the most incredible statistical passer in the history of the game, when you consider context. They put up totals, sure, but the rates are completely different.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Dec 23, 2011 1:48 PM PST up reply actions
Little known rules change
For most of Jeff George’s career, you could shank a receiver with a sharpened toothbrush as long as it was less than 6 inches long and you didn’t leave it inside him.
But the NFL wanted more scoring to sell the sport, so they started legislating advantages to the passing game.
Every time Jamie Dukes says something enlightening and informative about football Jerry Rice and I mount up on our flying grizzly bears and claim pirate treasure from the moon. That's how often it happens.
Defenses were also much simpler than.
Defenses that were considered exotic in the 80’s and 90’s are basically conventional now. It cuts both ways. Not to mention the 90’s had an offense that revolutionized the game and everybody copied.
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Dec 23, 2011 3:10 PM PST up reply actions
The 9ers -- Not the 90's
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Dec 23, 2011 3:10 PM PST up reply actions
I just looked at a slew of stats by season from that era and it looks relatively close to today's numbers..
Close enough to where making the argument that there is a huuugggge difference isn’t completely accurate.
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If you look at the middle of the pack Palmer through Colt McCoy in terms of Comp%
It’s around that 59%-57%
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Actually… you’re not necessarily wrong. To my shock, neither TD% nor INT% is much different for any of those time frames. Completion % has changed a lot, though. League average in 1981 was about 55.5%, then about 58% in 1994, 59% in 2001, and 61% this year. Those are real differences, but it’s only one category out of the three mentioned.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Dec 23, 2011 6:39 PM PST up reply actions
And by “not necessarily wrong”, I mean “you’re way more right than I was”.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Dec 23, 2011 6:39 PM PST up reply actions
Where are you looking at those numbers?
pro-football-reference?
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Yeah, I’m going to PFR, finding somebody about in the middle, and then checking to see if his + stat was 100 for that year.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Dec 24, 2011 10:14 AM PST up reply actions
it's a product of increased amount of penalties being called/accepted
negating incomplete passes.
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Dec 23, 2011 7:42 PM PST up reply actions
And other factors of course. But that's the first thing that comes to mind.
2.5 negated incompletes a game per team is statistically significant.
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Dec 23, 2011 7:44 PM PST up reply actions
The question we should be asking
Is the offense as a whole good enough to win the Super Bowl?
If the defense and special teams units consistently give us excellent field position then yes, it is.
If the opposing offense can also pick up a couple first downs and keep us starting inside our own 25 — no, this offense as a whole : Alex, the inconsistent patchwork O-line, the always patient / hesitant Gore, and our butterfingered receivers are not good enough to win a Super Bowl on their own merits.
Every time Jamie Dukes says something enlightening and informative about football Jerry Rice and I mount up on our flying grizzly bears and claim pirate treasure from the moon. That's how often it happens.
Can we?
Sure. Will we? Well, that’s why they play the games.
We need that two seed, and, assuming our divisional opponent becomes the Saints, we need to encounter them at home, not in the Superdome.
Then, we need it to be muddy and lousy, if we go on the road to Green Bay.
On the other hand, we may play neither of those teams. Much the same way we COULD win a super bowl, they could lose playoff games.
"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will
by lottwasgangsta on Dec 23, 2011 1:09 PM PST up reply actions
The Packers could lose their first game, while the Niners win against NO here in SF and then the Niners get to host the championship game.
I think we need the #2 seed to do that.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
Yup , this ( TEAM ) is built for Janurary ...!!
I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ..( .AleX ) was asked , what do you think about all the game manager talk ... AleX i guess i just managed myself a VIctory ... Extend the Man ...!!
They have snow tires and new wiper blades?
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
Yes, Alex is certainly capable of leading this team to a SB win!
But as a few have stated, it is a team game! Each and every play is crucial! Still, for the critics of Alex, think back to all the TDs that have been dropped in the endzone or near it! If half of those were caught, we kick less field goals, thus his rating improves dramatically, doesn’t it? Lastly, when Alex threw to Kyle Williams in the endzone against Pittsburgh, he couldn’t have led Kyle because their LB was right there waiting to pick it off! Thus, that one was on Kyle, not Alex.
Enough said above! I can't believe the "t-raiders" are going to play in OUR stadium! Bastards!
by 23mjheart on Dec 23, 2011 8:03 AM PST via mobile reply actions
It is perfectly within the realm of possibility that the 49ers can win the Super Bowl this season.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
Or even if the Falcons beat the Saints.
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They have to beat this team on the road to convince me they can beat anyone in the playoffs. @Seattle is tough, tough game, a SB team would pull out the victory. Doesn’t it mean if they lose they can’t and won’t win a SB? No, but I’d have no expectations that they could.
They haven’t shown you enough this year?
The Cardinals went to the SB a few years ago, so did the ’Hawks, Giants, etc…
Really baffles me that people need to see more to be “convinced”.
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There wasn’t a @GreenBay on the Cardinals schedule that year. In fact Green Bay and New Orleans are two of the tougher teams I’ve seen lurking in the NFC the past few seasons.
1st Round of the playoffs in the Cards SB run? Cardinals beat the Packers.
Saints lost to the Seahawks last year in the first round. They still can’t play defense either.
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Regardless...
It’s beyond me how a Seahawks win or loss is going to make any difference in the playoffs. It’s a new season once you are in.
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Or maybe it was the year before or after...
Either way, the Cards beat the Packers (with Aaron Rodgers and Greg Jennings) in a playoff game.
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Indeed
They beat the Falcons in 2008, and then the Panthers, if memory serves.
I couldn’t remember who the NFC championship team was, so I looked it up. The Eagles.
I should really put this sort of time and effort into something more productive, like learning a new language, but god football is a great way to “waste” one’s time.
"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will
by lottwasgangsta on Dec 23, 2011 1:23 PM PST up reply actions
the point being
home versus away brings some significant differences.
by David Fucillo on Dec 23, 2011 1:04 PM PST up reply actions
Each game in the playoffs is a 1-game week.
I don’t see how the Seahawks game has any relevance to what we will or won’t do in the playoffs… road, or not. We have had success on the road and home this year… we have proven that over and over again. So all of the sudden THIS game makes a huge difference in convincing people? I just don’t see it.
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Each game in the playoffs is a 1-game week season.
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Agree
But that 1 game will be either played at home, or on the road, and if it’s in the Superdome, that’s simply a much worse situation.
So, beat Seattle and St. Louis, take care of business, put yourself in the best position to succeed when it matters next month.
"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will
by lottwasgangsta on Dec 23, 2011 1:24 PM PST up reply actions
i know it would be much easier to play at home, but whose to say we can’t win indoors against the saints?
by Don'tCallMeWhiner on Dec 24, 2011 7:17 AM PST up reply actions
Drew Brees is averaging like 400 yards and 3 TD's a game at that dome.
Candlestick makes a lot more sense.
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I didn't say can't
I just gave an opinion, based on a significant body of evidence from this season, that our chances are better in SF against the Saints.
Last night’s game added to the evidence pile. We CAN win in the superdome, but I hope we don’t have to.
"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will
by lottwasgangsta on Dec 27, 2011 10:56 AM PST up reply actions
This game is important, but maybe not for the reasons that have been brought up.
It’s because we can ruin the wild card hopes of a division rival. Knocking the teams that know us best out of the playoffs is pretty important. Fail to put Seattle away and the right circumstances could see them in, New Orleans into the #2 spot, and a first round playoff re-match with Seattle.
I don’t want to see that.
Every time Jamie Dukes says something enlightening and informative about football Jerry Rice and I mount up on our flying grizzly bears and claim pirate treasure from the moon. That's how often it happens.
Getting the bye and the home field for the divisional round is going to be huge, huge, huge. At this point, you still have to assume that the road to the Super Bowl goes through Lambeau, though, and – to mix metaphors for a second – that is a mighty, mighty hill to climb.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Dec 23, 2011 12:34 PM PST up reply actions
If their (Packers) offensive line doesn't heal quick, they may not even make it past the divisional round.
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AleX may not be the best...
But he has learned the most important aspect of being a QB: Don’t turn the ball over.
He may throw it high and he may throw it low but he hardly ever throws it where a defender can make a play. He trusts that his defense will give him another shot if they go 3 and out. Smith, Gore and Crabtree make up our triple threat so we go as far as they will take the offense. Not quite Montana, Craig, and Rice but Montana needed his sidekicks just like AleX. Combined with our defense and special teams we have a shot to win on any given Sunday!
by Critical Roach on Dec 23, 2011 11:55 AM PST reply actions
For people saying hes last in ever category and saying thats a bad thing
Should rethink that. Its 2 HOF QBS. He should be last. Doesnt mean he cant win a superbowl.
A better comparison to our team and gameplan is the 90's Cowboys
And Alex stacks up with Troy almost identically for the 92 and 95 seasons. You really wouldn’t be able to pick their statlines apart if you didn’t know Alex’s stats by heart to begin with.
Gimme 1 round!
If we could dominate the offensive LOS
That comparison would be much better. As it is we have to resort to misdirection plays on 3rd and short if we want at least a coin flip of getting it.
Every time Jamie Dukes says something enlightening and informative about football Jerry Rice and I mount up on our flying grizzly bears and claim pirate treasure from the moon. That's how often it happens.
That's why we need Konz
We get Konz and shift Davis to guard and we’ll absolutely melt faces running up the gut. Like when we had Gogan and Ray Brown
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Dec 23, 2011 8:21 PM PST up reply actions
Yes, he can.
A lot worse quarterbacks than Alex Smith have won the Superbowl before.
The guy is playing well. I think Smith can win the Superbowl like Phil Simms won the Superbowl. I’m not predicting Smith wins it this year as I think that’s more of a long shot, but certainly he can win it under the right circumstances. (That is why I voted “maybe”)
Jim Harbaugh AND Alex Smith are our future!
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Of course he can, IF and it's a big IF...
IF the Niners avoid playing the Saints or Packers, IF the Niners defense plays better than it has all year every step of the way in every game. And IF the teams we play don’t get pressure on him early. Then yeah, I can see it, so no, I doubt it…!!
-ME
"What the hell are you mixing in that look-aid"
Funny , this from the same cat that said Fangio sucks in the last game thread ....
…. please do tell , how many Points the Steelers scored against Fangio’s Defense , just more of your cognitive dissonance kicking it …!!
I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ..( .AleX ) was asked , what do you think about all the game manager talk ... AleX i guess i just managed myself a VIctory ... Extend the Man ...!!
3 points...
But Roeth was hurt… blah, blah, blah… and they didn’t have a good gameplan, blah, blah, blah… and the lights went out, blah, blah, blah… etc.
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Yup , and they only has Ten days to prepare for ...!!
I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ..( .AleX ) was asked , what do you think about all the game manager talk ... AleX i guess i just managed myself a VIctory ... Extend the Man ...!!
I could care less about the gameplan, it was very stupid to play Ben on that ankle. There gameplan was to go down field, and it was the right one, they just made a bone headed decision of starting Rapistburger. Yeah they hold the steelers.to 3 and give up enough to lose vs the Cards.
"What the hell are you mixing in that look-aid"
I only vented about him staying in a 34 d vs 4 and 5 wr sets, in that aspect of coordinating he does suck.
Key losses when he did that vs the birds and cowbytches.
"What the hell are you mixing in that look-aid"
fixed
IsAlex Smiththe 49er’s Defense Good Enough To Win The Super Bowl?
"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin
If they can score 18 points...
Then yes, yes they can
"When they pull the chains off, I’ll come back just as strong as when I left, if not better" - 52
i wish the defense can score 18 points in every game also
"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin
by HUNGRY HUNTER on Dec 24, 2011 6:33 PM PST up reply actions
if Trent Dilfer can win a Super Bowl
then Alex Smith can win a Super Bowl.
All they need is a world class defense. they might have one.
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by nostocksjustbonds on Dec 24, 2011 8:48 AM PST reply actions
SORRY BUT...
can we NOT compare alex to montana OR young….those guys are HOF’ers and it’s not fair to either alex OR montana and young….win a superbowl or two or TEN, then we can start comparing them…as to answer the question can alex smith win a superbowl?? OF COURSE…we’re in the tournament so he can….ANY of the 12 remaining qb’s CAN win a superbowl…who will win?? who knows…but i SURE AS HELL HOPE its ALEX SMITH and right now I BELIEVE he can do it..
Read more carefully, no one is comparing Alex to either of em.
Just because they are using their stats in reference to Alex’s doesn’t mean they are comparing the QBs, people always leap to this assumption. It is just providing more context to Alex’s year not saying he is a future HOFer.
People always twist words with these things, it is irritating.
Attack this day with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. ~ Jack Harbaugh
yes i did read the post...
but then there’s the stats COMPARED right next to young and montana’s…if that is NOT COMPARING what is it virginia9er??? and read my whole comment before you spout off next time please..
by MUAJxxCEEM on Dec 28, 2011 1:09 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
If Alex Smith can make it to the superbowl
then Alex Smith can win the superbowl
You know, maybe the bigger question is if our running game is good enough to win the super bowl.
We’ve got a solidly above-average passing game, and a solidly below-average running game. If our offense sputters, it seems more likely to be our running game than or passing game that’s the problem.
below-average running game?
Gore is 4th in the league with 1200+ yards and our rushing offense is 7th, seems like a solid above average running game to me.
Yardage is a horrible way to measure success
Yardage will tell that our run game is better than it is and that our passing offense is much worse than it is.
When we need tough yards we can’t get them, and we are one of the worst teams in the league in that respect.
Every time Jamie Dukes says something enlightening and informative about football Jerry Rice and I mount up on our flying grizzly bears and claim pirate treasure from the moon. That's how often it happens.
We're 8th in yardage ...
… and third in attempts.
I’d be curious how many other teams have that big a gap between attempts and yards. We were 19th in yards/att rushing, although (like with our passing game) that probably underestimates our overall quality because of our extremely low number of turnovers.
It’s very hard to make an argument that we had an above-average running game, although I think I’d bump it up to average on further reflection, rather then below-average, because turnovers matter.
Football outsiders doesn’t see us as being good enough at not making turnovers to get our running game up to average, calling us in at -5.3%. They’re evaluating runs in the context of the play call – eg, you don’t get a lot of credit for a seven yard run on a third-and-ten.
TItle should be if he can win NFC.
I think that would be a much harder test, going through Green Bay.
If Patriots get to Super Bowl, and we get there by beating Saints and Packers – we would roll over them.
Big frigging IF, obviously.
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