Regular Season Report Card
by Nationwide on Dec 27, 2011 12:44 PM PST
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PrintThe regular season isn't quite done, but we've seen enough to give meaningful grades for performance heading into the post-season. Giving a grade is a simple way to categorize strengths and weakness of our team and better envision how the Niners stack up against the rest of the playoff squads.
OFFENSE
QB - "C"... Ok, I'll readily admit I'm not a huge Alex fan, but this is a fair grade whether you like him or don't. Whether you are measuring stats or intangibles, Alex is not an "A"...that's reserved for the Rogers/Brees/Brady's of the league. As far as a "B", that's for the Stafford/Shaub (maybe even Newton) group. No, Alex is a firm "C" in my eyes. He holds the ball too long (although he's gotten better these last two games), and has obvious issues in the red zone (hence the Akers kicking record). The good news is he was an "F" this time last year. Does he have a chance to be a "B" in the future? Sure, but he'll never be an "A" IMO.
RB/FB - "B"... Gore is a solid "B". Great runner, great blocker, soft recieving hands. His only issue this year has been his health or he'd have been up there with the elites of the league and worthy of an "A". Hunter has shown flashes of brilliance, but also flashes of futility. He needs more reps, but with Frank in the backfield most of the year he didn't get them. Hunter gets a "C". Niner fullbacks are primarily blockers, not runners or receivers so they really have no bearing on my grades here.
Offensive Line - "C-"... All I have to say...they've given up more sacks than anyone in the league as of this morning. Run blocking is good, otherwise they'd be a "D" or worse. ADavis has been making pass-rushers mouth water all year. If we have a chance of winning a playoff game, this is the group that needs to step up to a "B" or better.
Tight End - "C"... Sorry, but Vernon has digressed this year. He's dropping balls and looks a half step slow. Sure, he's still one of the better TE's in the league, but he's not been as dominant as he was for Singletary. He's still a good blocker, and provides good leadership and work ethic...but he was an "A" or "B" the last couple years, so I can't give him better than a "C" for this regular season.
Wide Rec - "D"... Crabs is the best of the bunch at a "B-". He's grabbing more balls and providing some separation - but he's not been a game changer like the Cruz/White/Welkers of the league. Blame Alex or the O-Line, but it still won't change the fact that he's really good, but hasn't show true greatness (yet, I hope). Ginn..."D+", another talented guy, but take away a handful of nice plays and his only value to the team has been as a return man. Edwards got released today, but I'd have given him an "F" - sure he was hurt, but reading between the lines he landed in Harbaugh's dog house for a good reason. Bottom line, Edwards was a bad pick up. Williams is another kid who's shown some real talent and has even reached the end zone 3 times. Again, however, 20 recs for 240 yrds this year doesn't really make a big splash...I give him a "D+".
Kicker - "A+"... I wouldn't normally include a Place Kicker and a Punter in the "Offense" category, but in a real sense, they are part of the Niner offensive scheme this year, right? Anyway, what can you say about Akers. Wow. I was a little concerned after Nedney retired, but now I'm thinking we upgraded big time. And Andy Lee - in a field position offense, this guy is a game changer. Without Akers and Lee, I think the chances we'd be going to the playoffs this year would be significantly less.
OC Greg Roman - "B" Like Bill Walsh (yes, I said that), he's created plays that focus on the skills of his players and, more importantly, eliminated plays that are beyond the players' ability. Whether or not he should be given credit for Smith's improvement, I'll give it to him here. He's done good with what he has, and done it with no training camp to speak of. Props. BUT, he still hasn't found a way to consistently score in the red zone, has allowed his offense to give up more sacks than any other team, and has at times had questionable game plans and poor mid-game adjustments (i.e., where were the roll-outs and RB screens to slow down the Raven's blitzes?). Still, the guy's got game and it makes our future brighter.
Overall, I give the Offense a "C+".
DEFENSE
D-Line - "A+"... One rushing TD this season is all that really needs to be said here, but I'll throw in two more words for good measure: Justin Smith
LB's - "A+"... Credit these guys for the one rushing TD, too. Take anyone in the NFL...would you trade Willis for that person? Not. The man is an amazing athelete. And then add Bowman? Gasp. And as hard as it is to believe, Aldon Smith is actually a LB. OMG, what a flippin animal! And when Willis goes down, in comes Grant? I mean, come on. Who's got it better than us, right?
DB's - "B"... I know some will disagree here. Yes, Rogers has had a great year. Yes, we're among the league leaders in picks (#2, but 8 picks behind Green Bay and tied with Seattle). Still, I knocked them to a "B" because there have been times of confusion and times where we've been vulnerable to a skilled passer...and that's all we'll see in the playoffs. Still, this group is a million times better than it's been in the past decade and I'm hopeful we can re-sign them all for 2012 so we can see the "B" go to an "A".
DC Vic Fangio - "A"... The man is a stud. He's given us the best defense since 1984 (as compared to the teams of the period). Maybe better. He took some of Sing's guys and made them better, he took free agents and made them better, he took rookies and made them better. And they lead the league in most defensive categories that matter. A stud.
Overall, I give the Defense an "A"
Overall, I give the Niner Regular season a combined B+
If the offense can improve one grade, we have a shot at some playoff victories this year.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.
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Would C be average or are you a hard grader?
QB has to be higher than a C. He is playing well above average except in yardage where he is still within one standard deviation from the average. I think you should have left this out if you knew it was biased. I think Roman’s grade should be a C but we don’t know his role so its more of an incomplete. I think the playcalling is suffering but the roles the players play in is a B. There is some mystery as to what Harbaugh contributes and what Roman does.
I also think that TE is graded harshly. It is a huge disappointment in Vernon regressing, yet he is still top tier.
Maybe I’m the one that is too kind. Winning in this league is hard and we are 12-4 at worse. This team is an A to me and I see them equal to the other playoff teams.
Good question
I guess I am grading on a curve of sorts. Like I said in the post, Rogers et al deserve the “A”, and the Staffords deserve the “B”…that’s how I gave Smith the “C”. It’s not exactly a bell curve but it’s probably pretty close. I just think Alex is average…sure he doesn’t give up the picks this year, but that’s because he’s not throwing many tough balls. As for TE, I might agree with you. I might concede a C+/B-, but we know he’s much better than he’s showing us right now…and that’s where I came up with the C.
right but alex is as good as stafford and schaub...
i dont get it lol
What happened with Legos, they used to be simple. Oh come on, I know you know what I’m talking about, Legos were simple. Something happened out here while I was inside. Harry Potter Legos, Star Wars Legos, complicated kits, tiny little blocks. I mean I’m not saying its bad I just wanna know what happened.
if I may
his low turnovers is astounding. His job is to minimize mistakes and come through in the clutch. Its very much like how Troy Aikman played. That is apparently the game plan. Now Stafford and Schaub are very good players, but with different roles. Take more risks and use the passing game to cover the field. Its just different jobs at the same position. Also the ability to have a #1 be your security blanket allows the QB to take a risk and know that his WR will either knock it down, make a play on it and catch it, or save the day and wrestle free for some YAC.
I think that both Stafford and Schaub are better players based on their history. Though Smith is an above average player this year.
by mcwagner on Dec 27, 2011 8:50 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
I actually believe schaub's numbers this year before he went down
were very much comparable to Alex’s. Of course his line is MUCH better. Stafford has had the luxury of the “garage door” to throw to. Stafford’s Oline is also built for pass protection.
Now when u say the these 2 QBs are better than Alex, what are u basing it on? I would say he is equal to or better than them based on normal stats (minus yards, plus great TD – Int Ratio) and W-L record. u saying Schaub is better confuses me as they are pretty much the same dude. Now if the team was 6-10 i would agree that these numbers are meaningless and underwhelming. However these stats have gotten us to 12-3 so i dont understand the criticism when grading Alex this year.
I mean hell if we went 8-8 with Alex being benched and Kaep coming in late in the season, THAT is a C to me. That is what we ALL expected. To give a C after a 12 win season just confuses the hell out of me.
What happened with Legos, they used to be simple. Oh come on, I know you know what I’m talking about, Legos were simple. Something happened out here while I was inside. Harry Potter Legos, Star Wars Legos, complicated kits, tiny little blocks. I mean I’m not saying its bad I just wanna know what happened.
Pretty harsh grade for QB
Just his TD/INT ratio earns him a solid B.
"One game at a time. Let's just keep it rolling." Justin Smith
Considered, but...
His number of TD’s drops him to “C” in my opinion. I’m not bashing the guy – I think he’s improved from an “F” last year.
i think you're not counting how many dropped passws he's had that should have been TDs
by Andrew9erfan on Dec 28, 2011 5:15 AM PST up reply actions
2 thoughts there
1. All teams have dropped TD’s. It happens. It’s the QB’s job to get up and connect on the next one. 2. Out horrible red zone conversion rate isn’t an anomoly. Dropped balls or not, the guy throwing them has to take the biggest part of the blame here.
yes all teams have them
But some have them more than others. To not acknowladge the receivers having issues this year is ridiculous.
by Andrew9erfan on Dec 28, 2011 8:36 AM PST up reply actions
?
Dropped balls or not, the guy throwing them has to take the biggest part of the blame here.
so when Alex throws a perfect ball that hits VD right in the hands, but he drops it, we are supposed to blame Alex for that?
Maslow's theory of higher needs does not apply to Patrick Willis. He only has two needs: tackling people and finding people to tackle.
Yes
The ball had bad spin. Alex should have made it spin the other direction.
Every time Jamie Dukes says something enlightening and informative about football Jerry Rice and I mount up on our flying grizzly bears and claim pirate treasure from the moon. That's how often it happens.
Absolutely not
but when he throws them 2 feet above leaping hands and skips them in at ankle high, is that the receiver’s fault? Is your point AS’s incompletes or red zone inefficiency is because all of his passes are well thrown but dropped? Really?
name me a qb who's never overthrown a reveiver
There are QBs in the HOF who put up numbers like smith this year
by Andrew9erfan on Dec 29, 2011 8:34 AM PST up reply actions
Dude.
That’s an impossible question. That’s like me asking you to name a car that hasn’t needed gas. No duh. HOF QB’s from the modern era? I think not. HOF is based on a career, not a season. And sure, plenty have had seasons like Alex, but their career stats are much better than AS 2011. You kind of made my point there.
look at troy aikman's career stats
The reason I asked the question about drops was to prove a point that you don’t want to accept. That all qbs have bad throws from time to time but you want to focus on them more than you would with another qb. The fact is that the niners have multiple players who are among the leaders in drops and alex hasn’t had his starting receivers healthy all year. He’s also played his best with the game on the line, pulling off multiple 4th quarter comebacks.
by Andrew9erfan on Dec 29, 2011 8:56 AM PST up reply actions
Cut Alex Smith!
"When they pull the chains off, I’ll come back just as strong as when I left, if not better" - 52
a piece of cheese!
because he’s Gouda.
by mcwagner on Dec 27, 2011 2:47 PM PST up reply actions 3 recs
He gets a "C"
He’ll never be an “A”
"When they pull the chains off, I’ll come back just as strong as when I left, if not better" - 52
For the record I think Alex is one of the big differences on this team
Since sometime last year he has changed into something different. There are a lot of situations that look just like the last few seasons and he almost always comes out on top now. I know the defense is bailing him out a lot too, but he hasn’t done any panic moves and he hasn’t been mister throwaway. Could that be all it takes to go from zero to hero? Stay calm and let the game come to you…
"When they pull the chains off, I’ll come back just as strong as when I left, if not better" - 52
If I could rec this 1000 times
I would!
Alex Smith is my homeboy.
Ninjames on Anthony Dixon's Tweeting:
"He’s going for the ‘T’ key, he should probably turn to it, but he stops and checks out the ‘R’ key first, then doubles back for a look at the ‘Y’ key, then by the time he decides to go back to ‘T’ to get some words typed, he’s brought down for a two-yard loss, ending up with the ‘G’ key."
hey, leave my cheese alone!
it’s nacho cheese!
by Andrew9erfan on Dec 28, 2011 9:00 PM PST up reply actions
Stopped reading after I saw this, kind of invalidated anything else for me
QB – “C”… Ok, I’ll readily admit I’m not a huge Alex fan, but this is a fair grade whether you like him or don’t.
To caution that you aren’t an Alex fan is one thing, but to then follow it up by declaring your own grade fair regardless of anyone else’s opinion is absurd.
Attack this day with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. ~ Jack Harbaugh
by Virginia9er on Dec 27, 2011 4:07 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Did you read the sentence you quoted?
Suggest you read it again. I looked past my bias, the point of the sentence. And I think I justified my coclusion. You can disagree with my conclusion, but to “stop reading” and call it absurd, well, puts your comprehension of a complete sentence into question. Sorry. Think about it. No offense meant.
Haha, you just think you looked past it.
You just convinced yourself you did by stating a C is the only realistic grade anyone could give him.
You clearly don’t understand that you can’t make a qualification of your own grade like that and have it carry any weight. You basically admit a bias and then claim that your evaluation is fair and can’t be disputed. It really is comical.
Attack this day with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. ~ Jack Harbaugh
We're not talking about our kids here
I can overlook a bias about a football player and give what I feel is a fair evaluation. Ask any journalist or sportswriter – they have to do it all the time. The only thing comical is that you haven’t learned how to do it yourself, I suppose. Just saying.
it's possible but you didn't
and many sports writers show their bias regularly. Sure you can give what you feel is a fair evaluation, but it doesn’t make it non biased. the problem is that the worst person to judge if one’s opinion is non biased is one’s self.
by Andrew9erfan on Dec 28, 2011 8:42 AM PST up reply actions
You cannot admit a bias, and in the exact same sentence declare yourself over said bias just because of the phrase ‘this is a fair grade whether you like him or don’t’ as if your opinion is the end all be all.
The only possible way that would be accurate is if you gave him an A, or some grade that made it perfectly clear you were praising him (maybe even a B or B+). As it stands you gave him a C, which IMO still shows an extreme bias based on what he’s done this year.
You are perfectly valid to give him a C and back up that opinion, I have no problem with that and would simply disagree. I do, however, have a serious issue with you trying to declare that opinion unbiased in any way.
Attack this day with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. ~ Jack Harbaugh
Man, you guys are tough
I disagree 100%. If Joe Montana (my hero) had the exact same team, record, stats, and intangibles as AS has so far this year, I’d grade him a “C”, as well. DESPITE my positive bias. To say the only way to overcome my bias would be to give Smith a better grade than he deserves makes no sense at all, man. You’re waaaay off, but you’re entitled to your opinion. All good.
If Joe Montana (my hero) had the exact same team, record, stats, and intangibles as AS has so far this year, I’d grade him a "C", as well. DESPITE my positive bias.
This is where you lose all credibility that you may have been attempting. Montana had very similar stats to what Smith has put up this year. Montana was NEVER at anytime in his career average. If you told anyone who had ever played against him, or with him that he was a “C”, you would get laughed at hysterically.
Alex Smith has had plenty of throws this year to help the team win. Eagles, Bengals, and the Lions games, had he not made the plays he did, we would have surely lost. You may as well throw in the Dallas game, because he made great throws in that one to help us in to OT.
I agree with everyone above in terms of a “C” and you declaring yourself as putting a bias aside. I think even most of the people that have biases in the national media have conceded that Smith is playing “above average-good football” this season.
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The Hometown Fan
Montana had very similar stats to what Smith has put up this year?
And you question my credibility? Just take Montana’s career AVERAGES and tell me one meaningful category that AS has beat him on from this season. I just looked it up. There’s only one category…Joe averaged 11 picks per season (I took out ‘86 where Joe was out most of the season) to Smith’s 5. Of course Joe 150% more TD’s on average, so the INT number is less meaningful.
I enjoy a good debate, but of all the statements you can make here, saying Joe and Alex2011 are comparable is really not the strongest angle to take.
Montana's Stats:
1981
1982
1988
1993
1994
All 5 of those years, Montana’s numbers are VERY similar to what Smith has done, not only this year, but in his ‘09-’10 as well. And there is NO denying that Montana indeed had a better supporting cast than Smith has EVER had in his entire career.
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And actually… I don’t even know why I threw in 1993 and 1994, because Smith’s stats are head and shoulders better than either of those years for Montana…
And just to clarify, Montana was my favorite player as well. It doesn’t matter much if you preface things with “he is my favorite player” or, “I put my bias aside” … those things are not relevant.
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I will also note that Alex has had five 4th quarter comebacks this year.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/comeback.cgi?player=SmitAl03
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I didn’t say you had to give Smith a better grade the he deserves. (Note: this should be what you THINK he deserves).
I said in order to make it clear you are overcoming a bias you would have to give him a grade that is clearly praising him for it to work like you wanted. You did give him the grade you felt he deserved, a C. That feeling is biased, just as me giving him an A-/B+ would be biased, stop trying to act like judge and jury and just present your feelings as an opinion, that is really my only problem. You keep trying to qualify your own thoughts to make them sound more valid, it is arrogant, irritating, and makes it tough to take your opinions seriously.
Attack this day with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. ~ Jack Harbaugh
by Virginia9er on Dec 29, 2011 10:21 AM PST up reply actions
Ok, ok
Believe me, I’m not trying to be arrogant or irritating. Its always been my opinion – and in the big picture my opinion means nothing to anyone other than myself. My replies have been to justify my humble little opinon, not sway yours. It’s just good conversation, dude. Please try not to take it all so personally. It isn’t an attack. We all root for the same team, right? And you have every right to be wrong…(jk, bud, jk).
by Nationwide on Dec 29, 2011 11:37 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
You opinion is not a fair evaluation.
It is an exact opposite of an objective evaluation. It is a subjective evaluation. It should be blatantly obvious.
my opinion is perfectly objective
everyone else’s opinion is subjective.
makes sense to me.
As said above
You’re grading a 12-4 / 13-3 team as a B+? It’s an A- team at worse, clearly one of the top 5 teams in the NFL this season. Can’t fault you on being harsh on the various players, but for the team as a whole, think you need to give credit where credit is due.
49ers as a team deserve an A.
Ok
On the same kind of report card I’d have rated the ’01 Ravens a B+, too…and they wound up winning the SB. Not saying the Niners suck…not at all…just when you look at them overall they have to be better offensively in order to win playoff games and hence the B+. Can they be a “B” or better in O? Hope so.
This is a REGULAR SEASON grade
As I said from the get go, I did it only to clarify what I thought were the Niners areas of opportunities going into the playoffs. The ‘01 Ravens had a B+ year and Dilfer was no more than a “C” QB (if that, actually)…but they went into the playoffs, raised their performance, and won the SB. Again, if the Niners can play better offense we will go farther in the playoffs. If you think 21 pts will beat the Packers, Saints (or even the surging Lions), I think you’re wrong.
since smith's stats are much better than dilfer's were
How do you justify rating them both as C
by Andrew9erfan on Dec 28, 2011 8:48 AM PST up reply actions
I said "or worse"
But so I was factual, I just looked it up. Dilfer ’00 – 59.3% completion rate, Smith ’11 – 61%. Dilfer 12 tds, Smith 16 TDs. Dilfer 11 ints, Smith 5 ints. Dilfer 11.2 yrds per catch, Smith 11.6. Yeah…Dilfer in 200 was worse than Smith in 2011…but its not like it was by THAT much. And besides, Dilfer got the ring so has the ultimate bragging rights – for now.
Niners Regular Season has been an A
They’ve dealt with injuries at key positions, lost a game in over time, a close game in the 4th quarter and dropped on game (that was still close). They aren’t flashy but as a team they are way better than a B+. Think your grading just shows a bias toward offenses that focus on passing rather than a level evaluation of the TEAM’s performance this season.
Curious
Assuming we win this weekend, it’s a real possibility the Saints will be our first playoff game. It’ll be at home. Now do your best to put you being a Niner fan aside – what will the final score be in your opinion?
B+ is about right.
How many games could have turned bad on one play or if one turnover haven’t happened? The top 3 teams won most games going away.
I’m a fan but try to be realistic. Red Zone improvisation in the playoffs will give Niners an A: SEASON ISN’T OVER.
Seriously?
Baltimore lost to Jacksonville, New Orleans lost to the Rams, Green Bay even lost to Kansas City. Arizona has a better record and is a better team than the Jaguars, Rams and Chiefs.
No team is perfect. Our team has done a knock out job this season and deserves credit.
this is what hipsters do to us
to be cool we must be cynical dicks
What happened with Legos, they used to be simple. Oh come on, I know you know what I’m talking about, Legos were simple. Something happened out here while I was inside. Harry Potter Legos, Star Wars Legos, complicated kits, tiny little blocks. I mean I’m not saying its bad I just wanna know what happened.
Alex Smith.
I am not the most staunch AS supporter. He is in the B(+ to ) range IMO. I would put Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Manning, Stafford and Romo the A to A Qbs. Smith’s low touchdown rate (3.9%) brings him down a bit. My opinion is of course in relation to the rest of the league. If I were to grade him based on how well he has complimented the 49ers and what they have asked for him to do, he gets an A for the year.
Gore having soft hands made me laugh
He’s had hands of concrete this year and has dropped more passes than he’s caught.
Every time Jamie Dukes says something enlightening and informative about football Jerry Rice and I mount up on our flying grizzly bears and claim pirate treasure from the moon. That's how often it happens.
yup most drop passes out of any RBs
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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Magic number For bye week (1 for Saints) For NFC West division title 0 (NFC WEST CHAMPIONS) worst seed possible (3rd seed)
Lol, yep unfortunately. Don't understand why he's the third down back at all.
Alex Smith 86%+ QB rating with 22+ TDs this season, hopefully! :)
He's had drops
but more than catches? Most out of any RB? Is that just an over-statement or a stat? I’d like to see the stat if you’ve got them.
more than catches is just what if feels like, I think he's had 6 drops this season
http://stats.masslive.com/fb/leaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232
note that vernon has also had 6 drops and crabtree has had 7 according to this list.
Drop is a hard stat to track and personally I feel like Gore has had way more than 6 drops. But could be that Gore’s drops have just come at key times, which makes it feel like he’s dropping passes more often.
Yeah those counts aren't right.
Vernon has 6 drops in 2 games and yes Frank has way more than 6 drops. While Gore may not have as many drops as he has catches — I admit that is hyperbole, he has killed so many drives this year where we dumped the ball off to him on 3rd down with 10 yards of open field in front of him and he drops it.
Every time Jamie Dukes says something enlightening and informative about football Jerry Rice and I mount up on our flying grizzly bears and claim pirate treasure from the moon. That's how often it happens.
Special Teams???
You should have placed this as a separate category. You give Akers and Lee their due, but, no, they are not part of the offense. Our special teams unit is the best in the league. Lee is having a career year and on the verge of setting an NFL record for net yardage. Couple that with the best coverage unit in the league and one of the best return men for the year, and you have another unit that grades out as an A overall. The game is played in three phases, and the fact that our special teams gives us great field position every game is another contributor to our low offensive output in yardage.
I agree with most above that a team tied for the second best record in the league and about to lock up a first round bye in the playoffs is not a B team. Also take into account that our three losses are by a combined 15 points and you have a team deserving of an A grade; regardless of how “average” you think our QB and overall offense is.
We have a good record...
But we still went 5 of 6 against the NFC West. That is an advantage for us to be in a weak division. We got beat by Dallas and Baltimore – two playoff teams (Dallas potentially). And we beat the Steelers – but there was an asteric with Ben being gimp. Yes, we beat Detroit, and I’d call that our best win of the year. Look, I’m just trying to stay grounded and keep it real. I stand by the “B+” grade for regular season performance. We did a lot better than I’d hoped, but I’d feel a lot more confident if I were a Saints or Packers fan right now…and that’s reflected in the grade.
The Saints and Packers should have absolutely nothing to do with your grade for how the 49ers season went, unless we played them, which we haven’t.
It is like having two students in a class and both get 95 on a test. Student 1 gets an A while Student 2 gets a B just because he/she is not as pretty, but the results were the same…
Attack this day with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. ~ Jack Harbaugh
by Virginia9er on Dec 29, 2011 10:15 AM PST up reply actions
Sure they do, man
I said in the original post I based my grades on a comparison to others (teams, players, etc)…not how they did last year or something.
by Nationwide on Dec 29, 2011 12:03 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Our division isn't so weak....
We are currently not the weakest division in the NFL and have three teams improved from last year, despite overall records. Those “weak” teams in our division have also beat some teams that have recently been considered among the league “powerhouses.” Rams over Saints; Niners over Eagles, Giants, Steelers and a 11-5/10-6 Lions team; Cards over Cowboys and a 13-3 Niners team; and the Hawks over Giants and Ravens. Even comparing us to the Packers and Saints (who we have the same record as), just because of low offensive output you shouldn’t grade down the entire team overall.
I can understand your opinion and I’m also disappointed in some underperforming, but I don’t think you’re giving enough credit to a team that was pegged to finish near dead last in the entire league and are now getting a bye in the playoffs.
by 9thevolution on Dec 30, 2011 10:12 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I know you are taking some heat for this
But I would still like to say that it is a good post and that the majority of it I agree with. NO one could make a report card for this team that everyone can agree with.
Thanks - tough crowd
I recognize that its the personality traits of those who desire posting on blogs and the same personality traits of those who enjoy debates. It’s all good. And I appreciate you seeing some positive in my post.
This post got me thinking...
If the O-line was a C and TE’s were a C and the WR’s were a D, could a QB ever be an A? Maybe someone has come counter-examples, but I can’t think of many great QB’s that didn’t have some pretty awesome receivers. We always evaluate the QB to death, but I would like a little more thought put into the receiving core.
Larry Fitzgerald had a thousand yard season last year with a stable of terrible QB’s. I honestly don’t know how good are receivers are. I know it’s a chicken and egg kind of argument, but I’d like to see it debated more from the receiver perspective.
it all depends on how you evaluate
Do you just look at the numbers and say no. Or do you say he’s doing his job but the receivers can’t catch
by Andrew9erfan on Dec 28, 2011 1:35 PM PST up reply actions
Hmmm
I agree with that. Then again, Montana had a group of unknowns in ‘81 and he made it happen. He had Freddie Solomon and Dwight Clark at WR, Charlie Young TE, and Lenvil Elliott at RB. Friddie was already long in the tooth at the time, and DC was still new. As far as ball handlers, I’d argue there wasn’t a gigantic difference in Crabtree, Williams, Vernon and Gore over what Montana had. BUT…I do agree Montanta had a much stronger OL…so your point is valid there.
Now you're talkin.....
Another though to consider…we talk about how awesome the defense is, and it gets graded very highly, but this year’s defense has been blessed with some GREAT field position ALL YEAR LONG.
So much of the defense’s rise to prominence must be attributed to the efficient job that has been done by the offense and special teams. And specifically, to Alex. The guy with the inconsistent OL and TE’s managed to escape dozens of sacks this year to keep a positive down and distance. When his receivers drop passes, he doesn’t panic and try to force the next play…so you lose the TD. as long as you get the 3, or put the defense in position to defend a long field, the offense has succeeded.
Niner fans are challenged to love Alex smith despite him not being a Fantasy Football QB- but the honest truth is that he’s a top tier NFL QB. He has led this offense to victory 12 times- and has put the defense in position to win EVERY SINGLE GAME.
In fact, i’d think the Green Bay defense would rate much lower playing opposite from most of the NFL offenses. Truth is, they get their many picks because their offense often plays them into a multiple score lead. Aaron Rogers makes that D better.
I'd say Alex was a B-, but at no point was he ever an A during the season
Always ranged between a C- and a B+, and I’ve still not seen anything to lead me to believe he could ever be an A. Clearly they don’t need him to be an A. If they got a B+ out of him every week this year they might be 15-0 despite some other issues on the offense. Particularly in the receiving corps and on the right side of the line.
I know people are hoping for a big defense draft, but I’m half expecting them to take a high WR AND a high TE ( of the natural 6’6 receiving type ) in the first 3 rounds. 49ers offensive weapons are just so inconsistent.
For the regular season though, you can’t give less than an A. They’re 12-3 about to get a first round bye. That is an A even on a very strict bell curve. Could only be better if they were the 1 seed, so that’d have to be an A+.
by whistlingmountain on Dec 29, 2011 9:37 AM PST reply actions
Yeah I'm constantly scratching my head
Over the wishing for a big defensive draft.
This is a defense that is in the realm of the 2000 Ravens and on the other side of the ball we have an offense that can make Cleveland football look exciting. Our best weapons are #10 pick who has finally stopped being invisible halfway through his third season, a 6’3" 250 pound ballerina with cinderblock hands, and an aging running back with little ability to create a play on his own and more desire to lay a hit as he goes to the ground than to break a tackle and keep running. We’ve seen better stiff arms from Kyle Williams.
And the crowd screams for a round one cornerback. It’s madness.
Every time Jamie Dukes says something enlightening and informative about football Jerry Rice and I mount up on our flying grizzly bears and claim pirate treasure from the moon. That's how often it happens.
by Ougadas on Dec 29, 2011 11:02 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Brooks and Rogers need to be resigned
Goldson and Snyder 2nd priorities
Morgan and Alex are inevitable.
by whistlingmountain on Dec 29, 2011 11:50 AM PST up reply actions
hahahaha
You just got sigged.
Ougadas on Vernon Davis and the anemic 49ers offense:
" Our best weapon (is) a 6’3" 250 pound ballerina with cinderblock hands..."
You can't spend a high round pick on a TE
if you’ve already got two of them worth serious playing time, regardless of skill set or body type. You’d be leaving talent on the bench while you’ve got talent deficiencies at other positions.
I say the 49ers need to spend their first few picks on a WR, a RG, and a Center (not necessarily in that order) unless some crazy value pick just falls into their lap.
We don't need 8 in the box. We have 52 in the box.
by these3words on Dec 29, 2011 11:44 AM PST up reply actions
Yes, they can
Because Walker is not a true TE, he only has the label on him. He plays a hybrid H-Back role.
Every Harbaugh offense has featured a more traditional big/long/natural pass catching TE. While it could be Reuland, it wouldn’t shock me for them to grab Fleener if he fell to the 3rd.
I’m not saying they spend a 1st rounder on a TE ( mostly because there isn’t a 1st round talent in the draft ). If there were one, like a Gronkowski, I’d say go for it.
I don’t agree with them spending a pick on a RG. Maybe a C if Konz looks great, but otherwise it’s more valuable to take a tackle to transition to guard like they’re doing with Kilgore and Person. Heck they could still do it with Davis.
They need to go high talent in the 1st round, my favorite prospect is Kendall Wright, but there are some other guys. S is a position that could use both talent and depth, but it’s not a safety strong draft.
by whistlingmountain on Dec 29, 2011 11:49 AM PST up reply actions
H-backs take playing time away from Tight Ends more than anybody
except maybe fullbacks, but I don’t see Harbaugh wanting to cut into his use of Bruce Miller. How are they gonna work Gore/Hunter/Miller/Vernon/Walker into the lineup and still get early-round value out of another Tight End? It’s not the most economical of plans, especially with the urgent problems elsewhere on the offense (WR and half the O-line).
We don't need 8 in the box. We have 52 in the box.
by these3words on Dec 29, 2011 12:17 PM PST up reply actions
Harbaugh likes a rotation, keeps guys fresh.
Plus, guys get injured, picks are for the long-term, etc etc.
Look at teams like the Packers, Saints, Giants, Patriots, Cowboys, Colts. Look where the best offenses spend their picks. They upgrade their targets if they can, they get depth, they push these positions.
Wouldn’t shock me to see them try to upgrade Dixon in the off-season either. The team has a lot of guys we consider to have potential, but results have been few and far between. I’d say they can’t rest on their laurels, but what laurels do they have?
With all the 3 TE sets the 49ers run, what if the 3rd TE was someone who was actually a threat in the receiving game? What if when they ran 3 and 4 WR sets, all 3/4 guys were legitimate threats. This is the way they need to think at this point ( beyond upgrading Alex, which they need to do long-term, but will be nigh impossible to do short-term barring some big Kaepernick strides ).
by whistlingmountain on Dec 29, 2011 12:29 PM PST up reply actions
Look at teams like the Packers, Saints, Giants, Patriots, Cowboys, Colts. Look where the best offenses spend their picks.
That’s an impressive list of teams that value interior offensive line play. They upgrade their weapons because they already have guys like Josh Sitton/Carl Nicks/Jahri Evans/Logan Mankins/Brian Waters/Jeff Saturday.
This doesn’t convince me that leaving holes on the o-line is worth it as long as you land a good extra TE.
We don't need 8 in the box. We have 52 in the box.
The 49ers didn't draft a guard in the first round, sign a pro-bowl C
spend two late picks to convert OTs to interior linemen?
The Packers haven’t drafted a guard or center in the first 3 rounds in the last 10 years. They have spent 11 picks on WRs, TEs and RBs. The Patriots selected 1, Mankins, and have taken 12 WRs, TEs, RBs. The Giants have taken 1 G, 7 WRs and 3 TEs.
The 49ers have taken 4 guards. 5 WRs, 3 RBs and 1 TE.
Only 1 RB, WR, or TE in the last 4 years. Crabtree.
I’m not saying they take a good extra TE, I’m saying a great extra TE. I’m saying a great WR. The team needs play makers it doesn’t currently have.
by whistlingmountain on Dec 30, 2011 4:24 AM PST up reply actions
Only 1 RB, WR, or TE in the last 4 years. Crabtree.
Sorry, 2, forgot about that wonderful Coffee pick.
by whistlingmountain on Dec 30, 2011 7:04 AM PST up reply actions
I'm not disputing that they need a WR.
But taking an extra TE hoping he turns out to be great is a game you play in the later rounds. Meanwhile, look at the state of the offensive line: Jonathan Goodwin is well into his 30s, iirc, and our RG is a Free Agent who was supposed to be a backup this year. I’d love to believe Kilgore and Person are the future at these positions, but you can’t adjust your draft plans based on late round picks who have yet to see real playing time.
We don't need 8 in the box. We have 52 in the box.
but you can’t adjust your draft plans based on late round picks who have yet to see real playing time.
of course they can,.. we can’t, but we have no say in the matter anyway, just banter for entertainment.
I fully expect them to take the development of Dobbs, Ian Williams, Brock, Kilgore, Person, Holcomb(on IR), etc into play in the draft even though none has seen extended time in games.
Goodwin is 33, 2 more years on his contract and I am on the record as saying take a C if they are outstanding ( if they think Konz is, and he is there, go for it ). Guard is a different story, they already spent a high 1st rounder on a guard, it’s a position that can be transitioned too by more skilled offensive tackles. It’s a fall back position if Davis falters. If they feel they need another player for it, they can take a tackle in the 5th round again.
by whistlingmountain on Dec 30, 2011 8:18 AM PST up reply actions
I'm sorry, but I would spend a 2nd round pick on Gronkowski or Hernandez everyday
That’s what the Pats spent to have the best TE tandem in the league for years to come. Let’s face it, as much as we love Walker, he’s never going to sniff Hernandez’s level of play and he’s only the 2nd best TE on that team. Gronk’s performance this year has put Vernon’s past 2 seasons to shame; despite that he has Tom Brady throwing to him.
by 9thevolution on Dec 30, 2011 10:19 AM PST up reply actions
Here's what it boils down to:
The o-line is the #1 weakness of the 49ers right now. We could leave it in the hands of late-round picks switching positions, but why? This team can afford to spend early-round picks on less risky o-linemen. The rest of the team, except for the lack of a RZ WR, is fine.
Take a tall WR in round 1, then spend your next two picks on linemen. Does this plan leave the team in need of another TE? Not really.
Take a tall WR in round 1, then draft a TE. Save o-line for later. Does this leave the team in need of offensive line help? Probably.
We don't need 8 in the box. We have 52 in the box.
I'm not even sure that high a receiver is needed.
The dropoff from D. Jones / McNutt / Toon to Quick / M. Jones / Robinson is pretty small and that range of wideouts will probably take you down into the 5th round.
Matter of fact I wouldn’t mind going O-Line / TE / O-Line / WR if we had to break it down to a position focus.
Every time Jamie Dukes says something enlightening and informative about football Jerry Rice and I mount up on our flying grizzly bears and claim pirate treasure from the moon. That's how often it happens.
We need a specific type of receiver though.
A guy who can win matchups for jump balls in the red zone where the short field makes it so difficult to get open. Do you see a mid-round guy who can go up and catch touchdowns even while being blanketed? I haven’t really scouted this WR class, but I had been assuming such a player would require a higher pick.
We don't need 8 in the box. We have 52 in the box.
Good luck
You want to win the lottery. I’m not saying the WR class is deep.
Blackmon and Floyd are the cream. Jeffery could have been if he had spent his senior year working hard instead of coming in 15 pounds overweight and half arsing it all year. Most everybody is still in love with his 2010 highlight reel but 2011 shows an uninterested and out of shape prospect with great athletic ability but poor football character and position skills.
But unless we want to trade very far up into the first for Jeffery, which I do not want to do for that risky a prospect, we’ll be looking at one of those guys if we want a big guy.
After that there isn’t much difference between #4 and #10 when looking at the tall red zone targets.
Some are better leapers but wear gloves of concrete on hands of granite while others aren’t good leapers but have snatching hands that can rip a ball down in traffic. All have been listed at 6’3" to 6’5" in one place or another — although I’m sure we’ll see some of those inches disappear for some guys once the combine rolls around.
Every time Jamie Dukes says something enlightening and informative about football Jerry Rice and I mount up on our flying grizzly bears and claim pirate treasure from the moon. That's how often it happens.
why is there a report card write up
when there is still a regular season game to be played this Sunday??
Oh yeah, that
We won that one on Tuesday afternoon. The Rams decided it was in their best interest to just let us have this one. Thanks, Rams!
Ougadas on Vernon Davis and the anemic 49ers offense:
" Our best weapon (is) a 6’3" 250 pound ballerina with cinderblock hands..."
“Overall, I give the Niner Regular season a combined B+”
If you don’t mind…
Additional Comments/Remarks: O for OUTSTANDING; at 12 wins, 2 losses, exceeded expectations beyond anyone’s imagination.
by Waiting4JoshMorgan on Dec 30, 2011 5:49 PM PST reply actions
Smith vs Shaub, Stafford, and Newton.
Alex Smith had a better season than Cam Newton. Both suffered from horrible offensive. Cam had better receivers and also played against a lot more soft defenses because his team was behind late.
But I think your de facto assumption that Cam was better has to do with forgetting to evaluate things that didn’t happen, that is to say, interceptions. Cam threw interceptions over two and a half times more often … and interceptions lose ballgames.
Schaub and Stafford are tougher comparisons, but again, Alex had an not-trivial advantage in interception rate, and that makes a huge difference. Detroit would have won 2-3 more games if Stafford had been able to throw the ball to the right team more often. (And, again, Stafford had a better receiver than anyone Alex had). Furthermore, watching Stafford, you’ve got to realize that a huge percentage of his yards (the best argument that he’s a better QB than Smith) come from throwing a 50-50 (or maybe 60-40) ball up deep and letting Calvin Johnson go get it. Smith had no such luxury.
People complain about Alex’s deep accuracy, and I understand why although I don’t think the criticisms are completely fair (I don’t think he’s hugely inaccurate, but he’s also not spectacularly accurate, either). But Stafford’s bread-and-butter doesn’t rely on any more accuracy than Alex has.
When you combine those factors, I don’t see how it’s clear that Stafford had a better year than Smith.
And that leaves Schaub. Schaub is a great example of why context really matters. Schaub is playing behind a great offensive line and a strong running game. You know how people always claim, whether or not it’s true, that Smith is throwing over a stacked box? Well that’s what’s really happening with Schaub. To wit, Matt Leinart (who looked horrible – accuracy was god-awful) was able to complete over 70% of his passess, and TJ Yates over 60%) because they really de-emphasize the quarterback in that system.
And, again, almost twice as many interceptions per throw.
I don’t know why people ignore the interceptions in these analysis. After all, it’s not like they’re trivial. I have to assume it’s because people don’t really look at the numbers. They see Schaub’s INT% is 2.3%, and they think “That’s a small number!.” Then they see Alex’s 1.2% and they think, “That’s also a small number!” But Alex’s number is almost twice as good as Schaubs.
When you consider the piss-poor pass protection we’ve had (the right side of our line basically just can’t handle a well-designed zone blitz, which explains two of our losses, and the third loss also featured a complete failure of our pass protection) that difference is even more impressive. How do you only throw 1.2% interceptions when you’re being pressured so much that your sack rate is 9%?
But it’s hard to see “the absence of an interception” as a positive play. It is. It’s just an invisible one, so people don’t evaluate it properly. Credit the scheme? Again – Schaub plays in a system that is jsut as schemed, if not more so, to protect the QB, and has thrown far more interceptions.
Alex Smith would still have had a good year on the interception front if he had thrown five more interceptions – but it’s really easy to imagine how those five picks would have cost us anywhere from 3-5 games.
Well stated
And 3-5 more interceptions would’ve had us scrambling for even a Wildcard spot.
"One game at a time. Let's just keep it rolling." Justin Smith
Throwing fewer picks
by taking choosing to disregard 90 percent of the field is not “having a better season”. Newton is actually a weapon, a threat. Smith is a “game manager” who doesn’t throw picks or make plays.
Smith...doesn't...make plays.
Yeah sure.
"One game at a time. Let's just keep it rolling." Justin Smith
Well, Romo had a bette season than Schaub, Stafford, or Cam.
Romo had a very good interception rate, although his play also lost the Cowboys enough games to keep them out of the playoffs.
The thing about Romo is that when he’s on, he’s scary to the opposing team in a way that Alex isn’t. On the other hand … he’s not on all the time, and when he’s bad, he’s terrible – actively making major mistakes that lose his team the ball game.
I understand preferring Romo, although I actually think that Smith is a better choice on a team with a top defense because he’s less likely to lose you the game and you are less likely to need him to win it for you.
as long as he's making plays who cares what part of the field he's using
and he’s been throwing down field a lot more lately and having decent success
by Andrew9erfan on Dec 31, 2011 11:22 PM PST up reply actions
Here's an interesting thought exercise:
Imagine you could add X number of 30 yard pass completions, randomly distributed to Smiths’ games (eg, you can’t pick that they happen on a key third down) in exchange for adding one interception (also randomly distributed).
What value of X makes that a good trade?
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