2011 NFL Draft: Possible Late Round Steals
by nocal81(Vincent) on Feb 7, 2011 8:00 AM PST
in NFL Draft
Email
Print
Now that the 2011 off-season is officially upon us after last night's season ending Super Bowl victory by Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers, it is time that the 49ers off-season starts in earnest on Niners Nation. In the past couple of weeks Drew K, Ninjames, Fooch and myself have posted random articles in regards to the 2011 draft, and I will continue on that tradition this morning.
In the past our San Francsico 49ers have been incredibly successful in finding mid-late round steals, as well as undraftedrookie free agents. This in depth scouting and good all around drafting aided in all five of the 49ers Super Bowl Championships, and even more recently have helped the 49ers. In my opinion the draft is how teams should build, and free agency works only as a secondary facet of the off-season. Teams that routinely make the playoffs such as the 80s and 90s 49ers, and current day Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots build through the draft. They have a way of stockpiling draft picks, and finding late round gems.
After the jump I will focus on possible 2011 mid-late round gems such as Deunta Williams and Greg McElroy. Using references such as NFL Draft Site and NFL Draft Tek, I will attempt to find players that may fall to the 49ers, and fit the need category.
In the past our San Francisco 49ers have been one of the most successful teams in finding mid-late round draft talent. It really is a laundry list of All-Pro performers, Super Bowl winners and Hall-of-Fame inductees. This list includes the likes of Joe Montana, Dwight Clark, John Taylor, Charles Haley, Terrell Owens and Frank Gore. The structure of the modern NFL requires that teams pick up late round starters, and the two teams that appeared in the Super Bowl did just that. Desmond Bishop, Cullen Jenkins, Tramon Williams and Jordy Nelson for the Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers and the likes of Hines Ward, Emmanuel Sanders and James Harrison for the runner up Pittsburgh Steelers.
NFL Draft Tek is an innovative new way to look at the NFL Draft, by far my favorite off-season occurrence. Like every mock draft site, NFL Draft Tek uses a combination of players rankings and team needs to figure out what each team will do in the draft. The major difference is that this site uses a computer similationin order to come up with their conclusions. NFL Draft TEK uses a VBAModel on Microsoft Excel that allows them to cipher through thousands of draft prospects, combine their ranking withteam needs, and come up with the ultimate mock draft. The site does take into account team personnel currently on the roster as well. For example. they have the 49ers taking Kendall Hunter over DeMarco Murray in the 3rd round, this because one is a C-Back, and the other isn't. It also takes into account playing Left Tackle, compared to Right Tackle.
3rd Round Options: CB- Brandon Burton, G- Mike Pouncey, DL- Marvin Austin, LB- Dontay Moch, QB- Andy Dalton, RB- DeMarco Murray, WR- Austin Pettis;
4th Round Options:RB- Jacquizz Rodgers, NT- Orlando Franklin, LB- Casey Matthews, QB- Colin Kaepernick, CB- Kendric Burney, RB- Shane Vereen, LB- Sam Acho, S- Rahim Moore, S- Quinton Carter;
5th Round Options:QB- Pat Devlin, LB- Wayne Daniels, RB- Jordan Todman, OL- DaMarcus Love, RB/FB- John Clay, FB- Owen Marecic, QB- Greg McElroy, CB- Rashad Carmichael, RB- Derrick Locke;
6th Round Options:DL- Ian Williams, LB- Kenny Rowe, S- Marcus Gilchrist, C- Krisofer O'Dowd, CB- Mario Butler;
7th Round Options:S- Jeron Johnson, S- Tejay Johnson, OT- Lee Ziemba, LB- Lawrence Wilson, G- Zach Hurd, S- Deunta Williams, LB- Brian Rolle, OT- D.J. Young, G- Stephen Schilling
You can see NFL Draft Tek's Positional Rankings
NFL Draft Tek's Trade Value Chart
NFL Draft Site is an engine that I have utilized over the last couple draft seasons, and they have been pretty accurate. For example, they did have both Mike Iupati and Taylor Mays going to the 49ers in multiple versions of their mock draft heading into last April.
3rd Round Options: RB- DeMarco Murray, DT- Marvin Austin, LB- Lawrence Wilson, QB- Colin Kaepernick, RB- Jordan Todman, RB- Shane Vereen, S- Deunta Williams, RB- Jacquizz Rodgers, LB- Casey Matthews
4th Round Options: C- Kristopher O'Dowd, WR- Austin Pettis, QB- Andy Dalton, RB/FB- John Clay
5th Round Options:LB- Brian Rolle, DL- Ian Williams, CB- Mario Butler, QB- Pat Devlin
6th Round Options:FB- Owen Marecic, S- Jeron Johnson, FB- Stanley Havili, S- Tejay Johnson
7th Round Options: QB- Greg McElroy, OT- D.J. Young, LB- Wayne Daniels
Analysis: Now this scenario seems a little more likely. There remains a lot of discrepancy in regards to the two sites with the likes of Lawrence Wilson, Deunta Williams and Casey Matthews. Of course, i would like to see all of them fall to the later rounds, so we can get great value. However, I really don't see that as a likely possibility.
I have decided to put together my versions of the 49ers mock draft using a couple different factors. The first version will be based on what players NFL Draft Tek believes will be available to the 49ers. The second version will be based on who NFL Draft Site believe will be available to the 49ers. Below, I will once again link both sites. This in order for you to do the same and post your findings in the comment section of this post. This should be interesting....
NFL Draft Tek: 1. DE- Cameron Jordan (California), 2. LB- Jeremy Beal (Oklahoma), 3. CB- Ras-I Dowling (Virginia), 4. RB- Shane Vereen (California), 4. QB- Pat Devlin (Delaware), 5. FB- Owen Marecic (Stanford), 6. C- Kristofer O'Dowd (Southern California), 6. CB- Mario Butler (Georgia Tech), 7. S- Deunta Williams (North Carolina), 7. LB- Chris Carter (Fresno State)
NFL Draft Site: 1. CB- Prince Amukamara (Nebraska), 2. DE- Allen Bailey (Miami), 3. RB- Shane Vereen (California), 4. LB- Bruce Carter (North Carolina), 4. WR- Vincent Brown (San Diego State), 5. QB- Pat Devlin (Delaware), 6. FB- Owen Marecic (Stanford), 6. S- Tejay Johnson (Boise State), 7. K- Alex Henery (Nebraska), 7. QB- Greg McElroy (Alabama)
Best Late Round Gems of the 2010 NFL Draft: 4(101) Mike Williams (Tampa Bay), 4(108) Jacoby Ford (Oakland), 5(137) Perrish Cox (Denver), 6(173) Anthony Dixon (San Francisco), 6(175) Greg Hardy (Carolina), 6(193) James Starks (Green Bay), 7(217) Dekoda Watson (Tampa Bay), 7(225) Syd'quan Thompson (Denver), 7(226) George Selvie (St. Louis),
Before anyone criticizes my picks please refer to NFL Draft Tek and NFL Draft Site to see which players were available with these picks. For example, in Draft Tek's version Petrick Peterson, Prince Amukamara, Robert Quinn and A.J. Green were all off the board before the 49ers pick at 7. Of course, I probably would have taken any of the four over Cameron Jordan, who I do believe will be a good NFL DE. Overall, I would say that the bottom end of Tek's version is much better with the likes of Vereen, Devlin, Marecic, O'Dowd, Williams and Carter all going to the 49ers. However, the front end of NFL Draft Site's version was better with Amukamara and Bailey.
So, please tell me what you think? This should make for an interesting conversation.
38 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
First
wow, I’d like to thank all the people who made this happen thanks to my wife for sticking by me all those ……………………
And for God's Sake give me more cowbell..
Actually
I like the draft site best I figure Prince will be gone before 7 and we take Gabbert or some similar QB with that pick,. DB goes in the 2nd round and RB 3rd.
And for God's Sake give me more cowbell..
No pass rusher in the first three rounds?
Much easier, all-mighty Megatron, then attacking the real threat...The Autobots moonbase!!
by Brave Neander on Feb 7, 2011 9:45 AM PST up reply actions
If Rahim Moore is available in the 4th round I'll eat my hat
Trust me, I have no idea either.
Nitwitter
Do you want mustard and Ketchup on that hat?
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
One of the top few safeties in this draft, IMO
Can’t see him falling that far. I was thinking 2nd.
Trust me, I have no idea either.
Nitwitter
DeAndre McDaniel is probably the best safety in the draft though.
Some of us will do our jobs well and some will not, but we will be judged by only one thing -- the result. -Lombardi
Teams with an established system know better how a player will play in it rather than a team that has little or no consistency. They can find those gems in later rounds.
by mcwagner on Feb 7, 2011 9:07 AM PST via mobile reply actions
I'd say Draft Site
1. CB- Prince Amukamara (Nebraska), 2. DE- Allen Bailey (Miami), 3. RB- Shane Vereen (California), 4. LB- Bruce Carter (North Carolina), 4. WR- Vincent Brown (San Diego State), 5. QB- Pat Devlin (Delaware), 6. FB- Owen Marecic (Stanford), 6. S- Tejay Johnson (Boise State), 7. K- Alex Henery (Nebraska), 7. QB- Greg McElroy (Alabama)
Ending up with a top CB prospect, a viable rotational 5-tech, a shifty RB, talented LB, Devlin and McElroy as QB backup/eventual starter options, Marecic, Henery…lots of long-term needs filled there with talented players.
Trust me, I have no idea either.
Nitwitter
I agree, Prince would be good and Vareen would be a good RB to complement Gore and Dixon. Marecic is a workhorse and I hope we can get him.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
Henery is a good kicker and can punt in a pinch too.
Not that we have to draft a kicker but just sayin it’s not a horrible pick considering Nedney is likely done and who knows what they’ll want to do with Reed.
Trust me, I have no idea either.
Nitwitter
I'm into this
I’ve been thinking with as many picks as we have and our QB situation that picking more than one is a good way to go.
Don't mind me, I'm on a roller coaster. . .
www.twitter.com/@yougomango
as long as it doesn't turn out like the Arizona or Carolina debacles of 2010...
Trust me, I have no idea either.
Nitwitter
Oh no kidding
Which is why it might be a good thing to treat next season like we’re a baseball team with the “can never have enough pitching” philosophy. Except obviously it would be with QB’s. I’d say we need at least 2-3 solid veteran possibilities in camp to go with a rookie or two. It’s just going to be interesting how we go about getting them considering the CBA situation.
Don't mind me, I'm on a roller coaster. . .
www.twitter.com/@yougomango
Why would the 49ers
waste a pick on a kicker? Doesn’t even make any sense. Draft site is just as bad as the other one.
Kaepernick
I have very serious doubts that he will be around in the 4th… I highly doubt he will even be around in the 3rd if he does well at the combine which I fully expect him to do.
Some of us will do our jobs well and some will not, but we will be judged by only one thing -- the result. -Lombardi
Kaepernick has all the physical tools.
The only real problem I could see at the combine is breaking down defenses. He played at a “small” school and played against less talented teams and schemes (excluding BSU). Also, playing out of shotgun makes it easier for the QB to see the D, while Kaep will have to go under Center at the combine. Most of his drills at the Senior Bowl looked good from under center, but his play during the game lacked any real excitement. I understand that the Senior Bowl isn’t an end all to see who will be better, it does show where the players are at NOW.
In reality, I really don’t know much about Kaepernick, but would feel comfortable if the 49ers drafted him. He wouldn’t be my first choice, I personaly like Ponder. But if Harbaugh drafted Kaep I would go forward with an open mind. Besides, I think Harbaugh knows more about NFL QB’s than I do….By Far.
by ericalancanty on Feb 7, 2011 10:50 AM PST up reply actions
I missed my real point....
In 2010 only 2 QB’s was drafted in the 1st round, this is a breakdown of QB’s taken in the 1st 5 rounds.
Round 1….2 QB’s
Round 2….1 QB
Round 3….1 QB
Round 4….1 QB
Round 5….2 QB’s
Now in 2011, they have 4 QB’s pegged to go in the 1st round. That is assuming that none drop. After the top 4, the rest of the QB’s have been put in this pool of equally talented QB’s. The highest I see Kaepernick going is the 3rd and that is totaly on his physical attributes alone. I see him as a 4th rounder maybe a 5th, but probably not. Wouldn’t be shocked if in the high 3rd. He has a great build, smile and confidence to be a good QB, and I know I razz you alot about him, but just for fun.
by ericalancanty on Feb 7, 2011 10:59 AM PST up reply actions
I don't think that 4 QB's will go in the 1st round.
But probably three.
My guesstimate is probably 5, possibly even 6 of them in the first two rounds. By round 3, there is no doubt in my mind that at least 6 of this years QB’s will be off the board. Kaepernick is a top 6 QB, even if he does need a bit of brush up work to do.
There are a lot more teams that need QB’s this year opposed to last.
Some of us will do our jobs well and some will not, but we will be judged by only one thing -- the result. -Lombardi
BUT...
I think Kaepernick can, and most likely will be a 2nd/ 3rd opposed to the crazy 4th and 5th round projections by some people.
Some of us will do our jobs well and some will not, but we will be judged by only one thing -- the result. -Lombardi
I'd be pretty pleased
with either Dalton or K+9 in rounds 3 or 4. I’ll leave it to harbaugh to decide…
I have no idea who our future is.
The Texans like Von Miller so they might trade up.
Kellen Moore is awesome
Katie Mcgrath is our savior
my dog <3
And then we could get Cam Jordan at their spot
and pick up another 3d round pick . . . might not be a bad idea
As much as I'd like the 49ers to draft Jordan
Miller will be the prize of the draft. The only way the 49ers should trade the seventh pick is if they get a second first round pick.
Is Shane Vereen really projected that high?
At this point, I'm pretty much done with surprises - Michael Crabtree
Why would he not be projected that high?
He has just as much talent as Jahvid Best and Best went in the first round.
No way Marecic lasts until the 6th round, he goes by the 5th round (or 4th if someone really likes him)
I would say Draft Tek is pretty realistic and decent. It addresses the defense fast and the various holes in the offense later.
I will break something if we draft a QB higher than the 3rd.
Honorary parent of Duane Kuiper, beloved broadcaster and power hitting coach for the Giants.
I wonder if that Pouncey is the brother of the steelers one?
Hope we get Marecic with our 5th or 6th
Jay Cruise
Ab Workouts Mind Body Spirit Arthritis Treatment
Yes they're brothers
And both played at University of Florida
Don't mind me, I'm on a roller coaster. . .
www.twitter.com/@yougomango
although Mike hasn't had quite as good a college career as Maurkice
I don’t think the transition to Center was very smooth for him. Still, he’s played it, so that makes him more versatile.
Trust me, I have no idea either.
Nitwitter
Anthony Dixon
a late round steal? thats a bit of a stretch. average back at best this past year. let him play a couple seasons before we proclaim him a steal.
"Is that John Candy?"
Mike Mohamed
He’s projected to go in the 6th round and being local the 49ers could make up for their mistakes by drafting him. He’s better than Casey Matthews and he’s bigger. He also is from a 3-4 system as well and being tutored by Takeo Spikes would also be a tremendous asset for him as he could step in if Spikes decides to retire.
1. Von Miller, OLB
2. Christian Ponder, QB
3. Ras-I Dowling, CB
4a. Deunta Williams, FS
4b. Sione Fua, DT/DE
5. Vincent Brown, WR
6a. Owen Marecic, FB
6b. Chase Beeler, C/G
7a. Jason Teague, CB
7b. Nick Bellore, ILB
7c. Brandon Saine, RB
You all stare, but you'll never see, there's something inside me.
Interesting but no
1. Miller, no debate here definitely need him.
2. Davon House or Jimmy Smith both are very talented corners and just because House went to a smaller school doesn’t mean he can’t play he’s also got good size and made a lot of plays for New Mexico State.
3. Tyler Sash need someone to replace Dashon Goldson and Sash would be the best option in the third round. He came up with big plays at Iowa.
4. Lawrence Guy or Ian Williams both produced more than Fua did at Stanford.
5. Colin Kaepernick has impressed scounts with his ability to throw the football.
6. Henry Hynoski gigantic fullback at 6’2 260 and also can be used on occasion out of the backfield.
6. Mike Mohamed better than the ever popular Casey Matthews, he made plays while at Cal and is familiar with a 3-4 system. Could be the perfect replacement to Spikes if he retires after the 2011 season.
7. Dom DeCicco, huge safety would definitely push Taylor Mays.
7. Jock Sanders speedster that could be used in special teams
7. Da’Rel Scott could make the team as a backup to Anthony Dixon.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Niners Nation
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Shutdown Corner - NFL - Yahoo! Sports
- Former high-school star Brian Banks does serious time on trumped-up charge, now hopes for an NFL shot
- Former ‘idiot kicker’ Mike Vanderjagt in trouble after accosting junior-high heckler
- Adrian Peterson blows teammates away in footraces; appears to be on the mend
- UPDATE: Charlie Sheen didn’t buy Lawrence Taylor’s Super Bowl ring
- Alex Smith gets blown up by Jon Beason over Cam Newton comments
