49ers 2011 Draft Picks Best/Worst Case Scenarios: Colin Kaepernick
by James Brady on May 19, 2011 8:00 AM PDT
in 49ers Rookies
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PrintThus far, we've taken a look at Aldon Smith and Chris Culliver, and what the best and worst case scenarios are for their immediate future with the San Francisco 49ers. In the most recent post, we established that Culliver doesn't necessarily have high expectations out of the third round, but that he does have potential, and therefore could end up being a starter. On the other hand, most folks who consider him a reach could be proved right, and the talent doesn't line up well with where he was drafted, or he could just end up ... you know ... not very good.
Somebody asked me why I skipped over Colin Kaepernick initially, and my answer to that is pretty simple: I just did. Our own nocal81 just put together a post taking a look at a couple scouting reports and drawing conclusions from those, so go ahead and read up on that for more on Kaepernick and what he has to offer. Personally, I was elated when the 49ers moved up to the 34th pick in the draft to select him (even more elated when they only gave up fourth and fifth round picks, as opposed to the second and third that the New England Patriots were asking for at 33) and have high expectations for him going forward.
That being said, let's take a look at the best and worst case scenarios for Kaepernick
Best Case Scenario: Kaepernick progresses well, is ready to start if need-be
It's really hard to determine what would be a best-case scenario for Kaepernick. He wants to play as soon as he possibly can, but is that necessarily the best thing for him? I don't think I can say if that would necessarily be bad for him, but I don't think it's a stretch to say that the best-case is simply that he can start if need be. Many consider his potential to be the highest of any quarterback in this draft class, and you can count me among them, but he still is raw and is fighting an uphill battle against Alex Smith who, let's not kid ourselves, will return in 2011.
Smith has a playbook, and Kaepernick allegedly does not (who knows if he got one from another player), and Smith also has experience learning a new offense. I mean, a lot of experience, as it happens - Smith has seen a revolving door of offensive coordinators over the course of his NFL career. So, while it's possible that Kaepernick comes though, shows his stuff in the preseason and beats Smith for the starting role, it's not likely.
So again, just the fact that he could possibly be ready to play in 2011 would be a great sign, and illustrate a best-case scenario. However, a scenario in which he is put in there likely means Smith has lost the 49ers some games up until that point, so maybe it's best that Kaepernick doesn't see the field in 2011. Either way, it would be nice to see the kid improve at a quicker rate than most believe he can.
Worst Case Scenario: Kaepernick struggles to learn an NFL playbook, does not respond well to playing time
Maybe his arm strength is all he's got at this point ... maybe all he can do is take the ball and run, with no accuracy or ability to run any facet of the west coast offense. Maybe Kaepernick is unfit mentally to grasp the complexities of an NFL playbook and he has to run one that's more limited .. perhaps all he can handle is a college offense. Maybe Jim Harbaugh is forced to use the pistol in lieu of everything else because Kaepernick just can't keep up.
They're all valid scenarios, as is always the case with a rookie quarterback. The worst case scenario is that Kaepernick looks completely inept during the preseason and or does not show potential when thrust into the starting role in the regular season, be it due to Smith's benching or perhaps a serious injury (not out of the realm of possibility with Smith's history).
If Kaepernick sees the field and he doesn't look like an immediate Pro Bowler, do not fret - the guy will be raw all season no matter what happens. But this worst case scenario is that Kaepernick shows absolutely nothing with his time on the field, looking every bit like Jimmy Clausen did in Carolina. Do I consider this likely? No, not at all ... Kaepernick has enough natural talent to look like he's got some upside out there, but it nevertheless remains a possibility.
A scary one, that we as 49ers fans, seriously do not need at this point.
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I trust Harbaugh to do right by CK
And I am not at all concerned with his intellectual or physical attributes.
Having to watch A. Smith in a 49ers uniform again is a hard pill to swallow tho. It’s like Ground Hogs Day Part Deux but rated R (for repulsive).
Ground Hogs Day ~ The Sequel ~ The Nightmare Goes On And On And...
Kaepernick can't be worse than Alex Smith, can he?
"I for one welcome our new computer overlords." - Ken Jennings, after losing to a computer on Jeopardy, 2/16/11
I mean in the long run
"I for one welcome our new computer overlords." - Ken Jennings, after losing to a computer on Jeopardy, 2/16/11
Of course he can be worse.
Harbaughcalypse Now
Alex Smith isn't that bad
If he was taken in the 3rd round istead of #1 overall everyone here would love him and would still be calling him the QBOTF
I'm not bitter that he was taken #1.
How many QB’s are still on one team since 2005 and have still not established themselves as the undisputed starter?
At this point, I'm pretty much done with surprises - Michael Crabtree
I don't like/hate Alex Smith but he will NEVER be worse than
Leaf and Russell…
Wow… So glad we did not draft them…
I'm in business of giving the business and business is booming!
Sure he can.
What we have by now is his play in college, and A. Smith was a better player in college.
Kaepernick has some better abilities, arm strength in paricular, but who knows how it would translate.
I sure hope that he will turn out to be better, but there are no guarantees.
He was better in college
He tied the record for most rushing TD’s ever by a QB, he is the only player to throw for over 10,000 yards and rush for over 4,000 yards and he was the only player who had 3 straight 2,000 yard passing and 1,000 yard rushing seasons. He was one of only 3 players to ever throw for 20 td’s and rush for 20 td’s in the same season.
by Mr. Jesse From Anchorage, AK on May 19, 2011 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions
Dual threat is largely irrelevant..
..and his overall play was no better and he lost his first two bowls. Especially if you account to 3 vs 4 year of playing (which makes any comparison difficult, of course). 8-5 record in his third year.
I sure hope he will turn out to be a better NFL player – but dismissing AS college play is wrong.
I'm not dismissing him - and Smith was drafted because he was a dual threat QB
I am just saying Alex Smith, who was also a dual threat QB, did not have as good of a college career. His 2004 season that got him picked #1 overall he threw for 2,952 with 32 td’s and ran for 631 yards with 10 td’s.
His other year that he actually played 2003, he threw for 2,247 yards with 15 td’s and ran for 452 yards with 5 td’s.
His failure is part of the reason that spread qb’s get no love in the NFL draft.
by Mr. Jesse From Anchorage, AK on May 19, 2011 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions
How many Int's did Alex throw when he threw 32 TDs?
And how many did he throw the year before?
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on May 19, 2011 10:51 PM PDT up reply actions
I think Kaep should sit the whole year
barring injury to Alex. I don’t want to throw him into the fire too soon.
That would be ideal
But I trust Alex. He hasn’t pulled that trick off since 2007
sd377 wants to ban me for unleashing the Kaepernick Supernova Gamma Ray
I dont think Kaepernick will have a problem learning any playbook.
From the simple fact that the guy is smart. Really smart. Not to mention that he has the drive and passion to be great at the QB position.
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Alex Smith was supposed to be smart too, if I remember
"I for one welcome our new computer overlords." - Ken Jennings, after losing to a computer on Jeopardy, 2/16/11
did he ever have a problem learning any of the 6 playbooks?
Harbaugh will find a QB and he will succeed.
and out of college
Kepernick in comparison to A. Smith out of college, Kaepernick is a FAR BETTER QB.
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Did you watch A.Smith play in college?
Looks like you did not. AS was doing great.
I'm not talking about college
I’m talking about his time in the NFL. He has made a number of stupid decisions, including game-costing INT’s.
"I for one welcome our new computer overlords." - Ken Jennings, after losing to a computer on Jeopardy, 2/16/11
by REDANDGOLD8 on May 19, 2011 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions
plus all those dropped passes and int’s off a receivers hands.
by Coach Harbaugh on May 19, 2011 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions
I remember a lot of tips and swats at the line
more than i remember receivers being a major problem. Well Ginn was a major problem… and Crabtree was afraid put himself out there… and Morgan would disappear…
darn it
by asmithisaverage on May 19, 2011 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Smith doesn’t help himself when he’s throwing screen passes ten feet above the heads of his receivers … they have to JUMP for every screen, and with all his passes batted down at the line of scrimmage.
Those two things are the most infuriating for me, regarding Alex.
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Harbaugh thought..
.. that Alex is accurate. Did he see something on the film that we did not?
He's accurate with certain passes.
Harbaugh is gushing because Smith is his only option. He’s not going to come out and say he’s not accurate.
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he can hit the skinny post to V.D.
But his checkdowns leave a lot to be desired. The intentional grounding call on a checkdown proves this. The game has not slowed down for him because his confidence is so bad. Harbaugh has confidence galore and hopefully Alex can flourish. At worst he is a stop gap for Colin. At best he is a viable mentor and leader.
by wtlichens on May 19, 2011 9:03 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Fair assessment from Wayne Brady
Also acceptable is the fact that he has had a tendency to make people jump coming over the middle.
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on May 19, 2011 10:54 PM PDT up reply actions
He was a baller
but really he had 1 good season
by Mr. Jesse From Anchorage, AK on May 19, 2011 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions
At Utah, Alex Smith actually looked a lot like Blaine Gabbert did this year.
Tall, smart, mobile, spread system quarterback with some accuracy issues. Smith’s upside was huge coming out of college—much better than Gabbert’s because Gabbert wasn’t nearly as productive, took many more sacks, and didn’t win nearly as much as Smith did at Utah.
Kaepernick may have some growing to do as a passer, but you don't get to 10,000 yards passing in college without being able to read a defense.
Twitter me at twitter.com/grantmp1
not at all
i was busy rooting for my Cal Bears and Rodgers.
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by imjuliooo89 on May 19, 2011 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions
I dont think Kaepernick will have a problem learning any playbook.
From the simple fact that the guy is smart. Really smart. Not to mention that he has the drive and passion to be great at the QB position.
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Worst Case Scenario
Colin Kaepernick goes back to school and earns a bachelors degree in economics after only one year with a 3.76 GPA and then finishes a masters degree. Then he retakes the Wonderlic test and scores a 41. He follows this up by training with Urban Meyer and learning the spread offense “a little better than Alex Smith” according to the former coach.
He is hailed by the press as a little more of a gentleman than Alex Smith, gets married and finds his wife pregnant, with twins. After the birth of his two sons, he wins the starting job from Alex Smith because he is “just a little bit better” and the 49ers go 7-9 and miss the playoffs for the next four years. For those keeping score, that just a little bit better than we did with Alex.
Hopefully Colin Kapernick is shooting for way better than Alex Smith.
It's about having the kind of faith that makes all the "what if's" irrelevant - Jim Harbaugh 2011
Frank Gore has earned his place among the great running backs of the NFL - Pat Willie on NN
by Pat Willie on May 19, 2011 9:30 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I don't think he'll struggle to learn the playbook
he may struggle running the plays and executing them at this level. His feet will help him get out of trouble early.
Harbaugh will find a QB and he will succeed.
Best Case Scenario
The first game Colin starts in is against the Broncos and for some reason they are wearing some funny looking bright blue smurf looking uniforms. He passes for over 350 yards and runs for 240. The Bronco’s don’t even know what hit them. If only they didn’t decide to wear those funny looking smurf suits and paint their grass blue.
Because of the great start Kaep is overloaded with confidence and can never be stopped. He even manages to snap the Packers’ 13 game winning streak later on in the season. Three games later when Super Bowl XLVI MVP Alex Smith is supposed to return from injury coach decides to go with the big gun and keep Kaepernick as starter.
The 49ers go on to win 38 games straight and Las Vegas goes broke because the 49ers beat the spread every time.
Even though a lot of people in Vegas lose their jobs, this scenario is great because the 49ers win 38 games in a row.
It's about having the kind of faith that makes all the "what if's" irrelevant - Jim Harbaugh 2011
Frank Gore has earned his place among the great running backs of the NFL - Pat Willie on NN
ok this is probably the all time greatest scenario
I see what you did there with the “Broncos”
by ManBearPig21 on May 19, 2011 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions
Not good bro , I live in Vegas and Vegas is already broke ...!!
I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ...Jimmy Raye your no daisy ...!!
Worst case;
that the lockout goes on too long & all the workouts & training to be a good QB ready to start next year, will not be there. That goes for all the rooks & vets also. Everybody has to learn the new "Book." So if this lockout extends into the "Camps," (& it already has) I think this year will be a wash. And that will not be the players or coaches fault. The time was not there to give the proper instruction, time to learn the new "Book."
"Moving Forward."
Best Case Scenario: (and I will probably get killed for this)
Colin doesn’t have to take a single snap this year. Alex Smith stays healthy and the team is competitive. Smith signs elsewhere as a free agent.
Then, after a full season as backup, and a “normal” off-season that involves full training camps, he shows enough progress to be named starter going forward.
Look, I’m as excited as everyone for this guy. His physical tools are tantalizing. But regardless, he comes from a college system that is going to require a learning curve & adjustment to the pro game. The best situation possible is that he is afforded the luxury of a learning year, especially if training camps are shorter. Normally he’d already have a playbook to study. Lets give Harbaugh some time to tweak his game a little. We saw what happened when Alex was thrown into the fire.
none of this means I don’t think he could learn the offense & be capable this year, I’m sure he’ll have enough of the playbook down by midseason to play in a pinch, I’m just hoping we don’t need him to
by ManBearPig21 on May 19, 2011 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions
Best case scenario
Colin beats out Alex in the QB competition and Alex’s loves living in the bay area so much he signs to be the long term back up and mentor Colin into having the career that he should have had. When called upon to play Smith comes into the game and ball and helps us win and there is rumors that he may be capable of being a starting QB and talk of how Harbaugh saved his career so a team offers the 49ers a high draft pick for Alex.
by Mr. Jesse From Anchorage, AK on May 19, 2011 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions
Best case scenario:
Alex Smith lights it up, takes the team to a playoff spot while Kaepernick doesn’t play, but takes to the playbook like a duck to water. In the offseason Alex Smith gets franchised and then traded like Matt Cassell did, bringing the Niners a couple of 2nd-rounders as compensation. Kaepernick steps in in 2011 and the Niners win the Super Bowl. DONE!
Kaepernick may have some growing to do as a passer, but you don't get to 10,000 yards passing in college without being able to read a defense.
Twitter me at twitter.com/grantmp1
Unless CK has a learning disability I am confident he will at some point learn the playbook but
that is not the same as executing it at game speed. Once he has grasped the offense then he will be in a position to develop as a NFL quarterback. All the guys that make a roster know the playbook but that doesnt mean they are ready to take over the team. Give the kid a chance ala Rodgers to develop instead of making the same mistakes that were made with Alex Smith.
The best case scenario
Is that the 49ers win the Superbowl with Alex Smith and CK doesn’t play a down. In fact he doesnt play except for mop up duty for the next 5 years as Alex Smith becomes a top 6 QB. Then at some point after a solid run AS gets injured or is traded and a ready and mature CK steps into a veteran, winning team and continues a string of deep playoff runs.
That would be the best, and incredibly unlikely, scenario
correct all except for the unlikely scenario part.
This will happen.
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on May 19, 2011 10:59 PM PDT up reply actions
best case scenario...
Alex Smith finds confidence in Harbaughs offense. His “dear in the headlights” look changes and he gains a “swagger”. Colin has time to develop and learn behind a winning veteran and becomes the next Aaron Rodgers.
by wtlichens on May 19, 2011 6:02 PM PDT via mobile reply actions 1 recs
The best case scenario ... the lock-out end's and i get me some football ...!!
I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ...Jimmy Raye your no daisy ...!!
best case scenario...
The York’s sell the franchise to Eddie D.
by wtlichens on May 19, 2011 7:28 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
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