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The NFL in Los Angeles

The year is 2040.  The season's first exhibition game is about to kick off between the NFL's two newest expansion teams, the Idaho Spudpickers and the London Tanqueray and tonics. With the recent expansion there are now 48 teams in the NFL, but one city is still without a team, Los Angeles. 

Considering Los Angeles is the second biggest market in the U.S., that scenario seems unlikely.  But maybe it's not that unlikely after all.  "After Des Moines gets an NFL franchise they may think of L.A.," said former California Governor Gray Davis.  "After they've ransomed money from every other city, they might come back to L.A."

Since both the Raiders and Rams left Los Angeles in 1994, Baltimore, Cleveland, Nashville, Houston, and of course, St Louis and Oakland have all gotten an NFL team. And, except for Nashville, all those cities have something in common.  They all watched an NFL team leave for a town where they thought they could make more money.  In fact, in the modern era, the NFL has returned to every town they've left except L.A., and they've now been without a team longer than any of those other places ever were.  When Cleveland is beating you out for an NFL franchise, you know things are bad.

The knock on L.A. is that people just aren't that passionate about sports.  Fans show up to Dodger's games in the 3rd inning and are gone by the end of the 7th.  They show up to Laker's games in the second quarter and are heading for the door at the start of the 4th.  You have to beat the traffic--after all.  Plus, not everyone in L.A. even realizes they no longer have a team.  Five years after the Raiders and Rams bolted Davis said, "We just took a poll and 60% of the people in L.A. County think the football teams never left.  This is almost five years after they Raiders and Rams left and people still think they're playing football in L.A."  Of course, a recent gallop poll found 37% of Americans can't even find the U.S. on a map, including 2% who thought the U.S. was located in the color-coded inset legend, so maybe it shouldn't have come as too big of a surprise.  

 

Star-divide

Another problem is the age of the stadiums in California.  Twenty-one new NFL stadiums have been built since 1994 and none of them were in the golden state.  After Lambeau Field the three oldest stadiums in the NFL are Candlestick Park (unless they've changed the name again), which was built in 1960, the Oakland Coliseum (1966), and Qualcomm Stadium (1967).  As for the Los Angeles Coliseum, which was built in 1923, it has seen the Charger, Rams, and Raiders all leave because they felt it wasn't very fan friendly, which is code for you'd have an easier time scoring an 8-ball than getting tickets from a scalper.  In the Raiders last ten seasons in L.A. they never played at night, forcing them to play 19 straight Monday Night Football games on the road.

The last team to lose and NFL team and not get one back was when the Brooklyn Dodgers, or Tigers as they were known for their last two seasons, folded in 1945.  In an ironic twist it was the Dodgers who came closest to bringing football back to L.A. A month after the Raiders joined the Rams in fleeing L.A., Dodgers owner Peter O'Malley announced he would build a stadium for a new team in Chavez Ravine.  The move would bring football back and help him diversify his revenue stream.

At first he had the backing of the Mayor, Richard Riordon, and the NFL, but a year later everything changed.  In order to win support from pro-Coliseum councilmen for the Staples Center, which was far from a reality at that time, Riordon promised to back the Coliseum as the only viable option for a new NFL team.  Without support from the city, O'Malley announced he was selling the Dodgers.  "If Peter had continued to receive the backing of the mayor and city officials to pursue his dream of an NFL franchise, it's very likely Los Angeles would have an NFL team today and the O'Malleys would still own the Dodgers," said former executive vice president and general manager of the Dodgers Fred Claire.  Now L.A. is still without an NFL team and the Dodgers have just filed for bankruptcy, but hey, the Staples Center sure looks cool.

So will L.A. ever get a team again?  The Raiders, Vikings, Jaguars, Rams, and Chargers have all been mentioned as teams that might relocate.  Then again, that could just be a ploy by those cities threatening to move to L.A. in order to get a better stadium where they're at.  It wouldn't be the first time.  Several times in the past, teams have leveraged L.A. to get a better stadium.  The most famous was when the Seahawks moved some of their equipment to the Rams old office in Anaheim and closed their office in Kirkland, WA, before Paul Allen bought the team and built Qwest Field.

Then there's the fact the NFL seems to be doing just fine without a team in L.A. With two teams in L.A., revenue from TV contract was $900 million. Seventeen years later with no team in L.A., TV revenue has more than tripled to $3.1 billion. With California's economy in the red, it seems L.A. needs the NFL a lot more than the NFL needs L.A.  If L.A. is ever going to get an NFL team again, the stadium will have to be privately financed, and who knows how much of an expansion fee will have to be paid.  Probably more than the $700 million expansion fee paid by Houston Texans owner Bob McNair.  In other words, it might be right after the expansion of the Des Moines Cornheads.

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"Fans show up to Dodger's games in the 3rd inning and are gone by the end of the 7th."

As a Red Sox fan, this blows my mind…people are packing Fenway a half hour before the game starts and nobody moves until the last pitch is thrown.

by MattSFfrd on Jun 27, 2011 12:23 PM PDT reply actions  

lol

yeah, it has nothing to do with “other things to do.” with the money you spend to go to a game, why on earth would you ever want to miss a second of it?

by MattSFfrd on Jun 28, 2011 4:54 AM PDT up reply actions  

Like what?

What is there to do in LA that you can not find in Boston?

Get shot by gangbangers? Score some crystal meth and kill a hooker for fun? Urinate on Boldwin brothers lawn?

by Mindless on Jun 28, 2011 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

you can do all those things in Boston

except you can urinate on John Kerry’s lawn

by MattSFfrd on Jun 29, 2011 7:02 AM PDT up reply actions  

Really thats only half true

Yes people get there late, but that is because of traffic. There is basically one 2 lane freeway that leads to Dodger Stadium, and all 30,000+ people have to use it. There is no public transportation for it. But people dont leave early, that is just what everyone who doesnt live in LA like to say.

Why buy good luggage? You only use it when you travel. - Yogi Berra

by SoCal As Fan on Jun 28, 2011 9:15 AM PDT up reply actions  

you've obviously never tried to get to Fenway

you cant even drive to it…you basically have to park outside the city and take a train in. everybody just knows to leave early enough so you’re there on time. its not hard.

by MattSFfrd on Jun 29, 2011 7:03 AM PDT up reply actions  

Nope never been to Fenway

but by your statement I can tell you’ve never been to Dodger Stadium. Unlike Fenway, Oakland Coliseum, AT&T (or whatever its called these days), Dodger stadium doesnt not hve the luxury of a good public transit route to the game. You can take a bus, but they wait in the same traffic as every other car.

Why buy good luggage? You only use it when you travel. - Yogi Berra

by SoCal As Fan on Jun 29, 2011 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions  

wow, no train or subway?

man…that sucks lol. i know when i go to nascar races getting in is a nightmare, its usually a two lane road out in the middle of nowhere. sounds like the same thing for the dodgers.

by MattSFfrd on Jun 29, 2011 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

Wow i seriously hope niners don't move to LA i know we

"Winning means being unafraid to lose." – Fran Tarkenton

by Nelow on Jun 27, 2011 1:02 PM PDT reply actions  

are headed for Santa Clara..

But seriously ..it just makes me nervous.

"Winning means being unafraid to lose." – Fran Tarkenton

by Nelow on Jun 27, 2011 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

I am sitting right now a few blocks from the Santa Clara site..

And there is nothing wrong about this area. It is a perfect place to build a nice stadium.

Highways will be fine on weekends, light rail, tons of space, good microclimate. Heck, I can bike there from my home – along the bay behind the Moffet field.

by Mindless on Jun 28, 2011 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's pretty simple.

L.A. in general has bad fan bases that pretty much are broken up by the gang culture. I see it in to many industries how the SoCal marketing gets a hold on anything and they try and make it there own with the SoCal charm (I find is sickening).

Californa is world PVP at it's finest.

by Sammallory on Jun 27, 2011 1:04 PM PDT reply actions  

TV deal

It’d be interesting to know how the tv deal would have been affected over the last 17 years if a team or two had been in LA. People there watch football anyway so the networks are getting access. Seems tough to figure out one way or the other. I’d think the tv deals would have been worth more but it’s tough to say.

by David Fucillo on Jun 27, 2011 1:05 PM PDT reply actions  

The Dodgers may not have a full stadium

but Angel stadium is always packed. We need some NFL in Anaheim anyways!

by Chefantone on Jun 27, 2011 1:10 PM PDT reply actions  

Wait, are you saying Gray Davis will still be alive in 2040?

Please please please help Red Wave Central become the official Fresno State Bulldogs blog of SB Nation! If you're a Bulldog diehard who wants to help, check here for contact information.

by OnDeck_Matt on Jun 27, 2011 1:22 PM PDT via mobile reply actions  

This is exactly

what I was thinking lol! They must have the fountain of youth by 2040.

by MikeDv on Jun 27, 2011 8:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

Lot more sense for LA to be in the NFC West than St Louis.

As an LA hater from the 50s, I was resentful that a team with “part-time fans” was kicking my team’s ass. Seemed like they could buy better players because of their revenue advantages. Times have changed. Give ‘em a franchise – I’m still not even yet.

by DeathValleyCarl on Jun 27, 2011 1:32 PM PDT reply actions  

I wish

Des Moines would get an NFL team. The Barnstormers just don’t cut it for me.

"When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story." - Barney Stinson

by Haggardninja on Jun 27, 2011 1:50 PM PDT reply actions  

A recent gallop poll found 37% of Americans can’t even find the U.S. on a map, including 2% who thought the U.S. was located in the color-coded inset legend

We’ve got to stop Manraj responding to these cold-call telephone polls. It’s giving you guys a bad name.

Also, I totally had to Google ‘Tanqueray’.

by LondonNiner on Jun 27, 2011 2:20 PM PDT reply actions  

Really?

I was always told the bottle was supposed to look like and old English fire hydrant.

In the world of the blind the one-eyed man is king.

by urnext on Jun 27, 2011 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well, I’ve lived here for all of my 35 years and I’ve been in a serious amount of pubs, and I ain’t never heard nobody talk about tanqueray! Although I get the whole Brits-drink-gin-and-tonic joke. Gordon’s is the best known brand of Gin, I think. I don’t drink gin.

by LondonNiner on Jun 27, 2011 3:00 PM PDT reply actions  

Weird

I’ve never heard of Gordon’s. If I had to guess I would say Tanqueray, Bombay, and Beefeater are the three most popular in the states. Maybe different countries favor different brands even though I think most are made in England. And people don’t normally say Tanqueray and tonic. Usually it’s just Tanq and tonic.

In the world of the blind the one-eyed man is king.

by urnext on Jun 27, 2011 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

the Chargers would be the most successful team in a move

They’re good, so you can grab onto a bunch of young fans and front runners and they have a large so-cal base already.

Any other team and I think it’s doomed to, while not complete failure, mediocrity. That being said, mediocre team in LA, better than mediocre team in Jacksonville for the league. And someone footing out the bill to build a giant complex that you can have super bowls and events in, also a plus for the NFL.

They’re not going to bring fans in with the LA Jag-i-uars though if they’re going 8-8 every year. Bring in the Chargers and they go 13-3 and they’ll have something.

by whistlingmountain on Jun 27, 2011 3:26 PM PDT reply actions  

I would like the Chargers to move here.

And I think they are the most likely to.

Fans show up to Dodger’s games in the 3rd inning and are gone by the end of the 7th.

Why you ask? Because the Dodgers suck right now. And so does our “owner”. (I think the bankruptcy filing today was a step towards the right direction for this franchise.)

And I disagree with the Lakers statement.

"I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that don't work." - Thomas Edison

"I may be an idiot, but one thing I'm not sir, is an idiot." - Peter Griffin

by mikeinsp on Jun 27, 2011 3:55 PM PDT reply actions  

I agree with u on the Lakers

I cant afford to get good seats at the Lakers game, even the 300 section, where i mostly sit in, is pretty expensive. But Lakers games are always sold out and most people make it before tip off

by KDEEP on Jun 27, 2011 9:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

Correction
(I think the bankruptcy filing today was isn’t a step towards the right direction for this franchise.)

"I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that don't work." - Thomas Edison

"I may be an idiot, but one thing I'm not sir, is an idiot." - Peter Griffin

by mikeinsp on Jun 28, 2011 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

How did this make the front page?

Im convinced this was written by somebody who does not live in this city. I dont understand why we get such a bad rep. Is it because weve been jaded by the lakers? We are a spoiled city of champions. I assure you we love our sports. I hope we get a football team that isnt the raiders or the chargers.

by TaylorMaysCantCover on Jun 27, 2011 7:47 PM PDT reply actions  

You're kidding right?

It’s on the front page because every week I write a story for the front page. And this is a 49ers blog, of course I don’t live in L.A. I don’t doubt there are people who are passionate about sports down there, but the problem comes when there’s more competition for your entertainment dollar. In a place like Green Bay, the football team is just about the only show in town. While in L.A. there are a lot more options. And I’m sorry but I’ve watched plenty of Dodgers games on TV and seen the stands empty at the start of the game and the fans streaming for the exit before the end.

In the world of the blind the one-eyed man is king.

by urnext on Jun 27, 2011 8:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

and...

Dodger fans will never live down the tail lights off in the distance during Gibson’s home run.

by David Fucillo on Jun 27, 2011 8:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

and lets not forget about the Lakers

Lakers lose crowd goes boooo.

"Hi my name is Cliff Harris and I am here to lock [site decorum] down" - Cliff Harris introduction at his Freshman Orientation
Reporter : "What do you remember about the BCS title game"
Cliff Harris: "That we lost"

by manraj7 on Jun 27, 2011 9:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's not so much a "crowd", as it is the thirteen fans who actually stuck around to the end. ZING!

"Blackmail is such an ugly word. I prefer "extortion." The "X" makes it sound cool." - Bender Bending Rodriguez

Eleanor Rigby - "Greatest Song" or "The Greatest Song"?

Kaepernick is some kind of Montana/Young/Roosevelt hybrid, and will absolutely ruin the NFL experience for the other 31 teams and their few fans.

by jbrown63 on Jun 27, 2011 9:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

Uhhhhm, no.

"I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that don't work." - Thomas Edison

"I may be an idiot, but one thing I'm not sir, is an idiot." - Peter Griffin

by mikeinsp on Jun 28, 2011 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

In a place like Green Bay, the football team is just about the only show in town.

Blasphemy. They have a train museum.

We don't need 8 in the box. We have 52 in the box.

by these3words on Jun 28, 2011 2:02 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah i guess your right.

We have been spoiled by winning here in Los Angeles. I mean we have
Champion USC Football
17 time Champion Los Angeles Lakers
5 time Champion Los Angeles Dodgers
2 time Champion Los Angeles Galaxy
Even ladies find success here with our 2 time Champion Los Angeles Sparks.
Los Angeles Angels? yup champions too but we dont like them.
I feel bad man too many champions in this city and not enough sports fans.
We as a city are brats man. We need to realize that some cities arent champion like ours. Thanks urnext. You have humbled me.

by TaylorMaysCantCover on Jun 28, 2011 2:22 AM PDT up reply actions  

Agreed

People who blast LA have never spent any time here. They just listen to what other people who havent ever lived here have to say about it and basically repeat the same tired things.

Why buy good luggage? You only use it when you travel. - Yogi Berra

by SoCal As Fan on Jun 28, 2011 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

You Suck

HA! I think i won that round

Why buy good luggage? You only use it when you travel. - Yogi Berra

by SoCal As Fan on Jun 28, 2011 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

I'm not really sure what your point is.

First off, no one really cares about the Galaxy or Sparks. That’s like me bragging about the Saber Cats winning the Arena Bowl 3 times and the Earthquakes winning the MLS twice. No one cares. And listing all those championships has nothing to do with what started this. Just becuase L.A. has had some success in every sport but the NFL where they’ve never won, doesn’t mean the L.A. fan base on the whole is somewhat apathetic. And honestly you’re getting kind of testy. I was never trying to humble you or degrade you in any way. I was mearly pointing out that L.A. on the whole is not as fanatical about their sports as other cities. I didn’t realize having a raving psycho fan base was necessary for civic pride.

In the world of the blind the one-eyed man is king.

by urnext on Jun 28, 2011 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

Nope

your talking reckless about a city and a fanbase you know nothing about. Your here feeding the people of this blog gibberish on something you know nothing about. Talking about LA isnt passionate about sports. Talking about you watch plenty of Dodger games on tv? That deserves a hahahahaha man your hilarious. Los Angeles has its own brand of passion and the reality is that its something you cant relate to. But that is fine because i dont expect you to. This is essentially why i asked why this was on front page. I like your articles but this one was border line ridiculous.

by TaylorMaysCantCover on Jun 28, 2011 5:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

Mybe I'm wrong

You’re right, I don’t live in L.A. so I don’t have first have experience. But I’m hardly the first one to draw this conclusion and there’s a reason for that. I’m not saying no one in L.A. is passionate about their sports teams. Merely that on the whole there are less people who care as compaired to cities like Pittsburgh for example. Just look at the NHL. People in Toronto go nuts for the Leafs, while people in Atlanta don’t care quite as much about the Thrashers. It’s why they’re moving. I’m sure there are people in Atlanta that are very upset about this and are very pasionate about hockey. There are just a lot more who feel that way in Toronto. It’s not a knock on L.A. You should take it as a compliment. There’s a lot more options for your entertainment dollar then some of these other cities.

In the world of the blind the one-eyed man is king.

by urnext on Jun 28, 2011 11:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

You'd think now would be the time to get in there.

The Dodgers just filed for bankruptcy, the Trojans football team is on probation, the Bruins football team is awful, the Clippers are irrelevant and nobody down there cares that much about the Kings. The only thing standing in the way of a good NFL team owning LA is the Lakers.

Please please please help Red Wave Central become the official Fresno State Bulldogs blog of SB Nation! If you're a Bulldog diehard who wants to help, check here for contact information.

by OnDeck_Matt on Jun 28, 2011 6:40 AM PDT via mobile reply actions  

So many things wrong with this statement:
Then there’s the fact the NFL seems to be doing just fine without a team in L.A. With two teams in L.A., revenue from TV contract was $900 million. Seventeen years later with no team in L.A., TV revenue has more than tripled to $3.1 billion.

First of all, that is extremely misleading. You cant compare revenue in terms of 1994 dollars vs. 2011 dollars. Prices have gone up and you must account for inflation. A quick google search and you can see that 900 million in 1994 equates to approx. 1.3 billion in 2010 (yes i know we are in 2011). While still not as much, the difference is significantly smaller than your 900 million figure.

Second, to just insinuate that revenue is up due to the fact that there are not teams in LA is crazy. Have you thought about the fact that the product on the field is better? Or the rise of cable packages and HD TVs where people are more comfortable than ever to stay at home rather than go to a game? Now you can watch your favorite team every Sunday regardless of where you live. In 1994, there was no way to watch a Niner game if you lived in Florida unless they were playing Miami. So of course there is going to be more revenue from TV than from 17 years ago.

Why buy good luggage? You only use it when you travel. - Yogi Berra

by SoCal As Fan on Jun 28, 2011 9:46 AM PDT reply actions  

Sorry, I ment to reply. Just see below.

In the world of the blind the one-eyed man is king.

by urnext on Jun 28, 2011 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

Where did I say revenue was up because there were no teams in L.A.?

I said revenue is up in spite of the fact there’s not team in L.A. There’s a big diference. In other words, it doesn’t seem the NFL has been really hurt by not having a team in L.A. Even adjusting for inflation, that’s still almost a 250% increase in 17 years. How many other companies can say they’ve grown that much over the same time? And if you’re going to mention inflation then I’ll mention that the economy has been in the toilet yet it hasn’t seem to have done anything to slow down the NFL’s growth.

As for the product on the field being better, I disagree. I don’t find the NFL more entertaining today then I did in the 90’s or even the 80’s. It was just as exciting to watch games then as now. You are right that with Direct TV people have more access to their favorite team and the NFL gets $700 million a year for their deal with them. So that still leaves $2.4 billion from their regular revenue streams, around a 200% increase from 1994. In other words, what I said was true. The NFL hasn’t seem to have been hurt much by not having a team in L.A. all these years.

In the world of the blind the one-eyed man is king.

by urnext on Jun 28, 2011 4:17 PM PDT reply actions  

Actually, around a 200% increase adjusted for inflation

But over a 250% increase in regular dollars. Would they be making even more money if they gave L.A. the expansion team instead of Houston? It’s impossible to know for sure, but somehow I don’t think they would.

In the world of the blind the one-eyed man is king.

by urnext on Jun 28, 2011 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

I still think it will be the 49ers

I just don’t see this Santa Clara thing panning out. If anything, I think that, at the last minute, the city of San Francisco will start making noise over things like the name “San Francisco 49ers”. When faced with the prospect of having to call themselves the “Santa Clara 49ers”, the Yorks will settle for “Los Angeles 49ers”. If the Santa Clara stadium fails, they’ll move to LA anyway. So either way, they’re LA-bound.

Just my $0.02.

by aranadiscoteca on Jun 30, 2011 5:33 PM PDT reply actions  

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