2011 San Francisco 49ers: Does The Lockout Create A Lost Season?
by nocal81(Vincent) on Jul 24, 2011 9:25 AM PDT
in Jim Harbaugh 49ers Coaching Staff
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PrintIt is hard to imagine a team that has been more affected by the NFL lockout than our very own San Francisco 49ers. Immediately following the hype of Jim Harbaugh moving a few miles and taking the head coaching position with San Francisco, the players were locked out.
There were no organized team activities, no mini-camps, and no chance to get acquainted with the new coaching staff. The excitement that Harbaugh's hiring and the filling of the coaching staff with top level talent was replaced with anger, grief, and questions.
Now that we are on the verge of getting back to business, there are a lot of questions that remain for our San Francisco 49ers. This morning I am going to address them.
Issue 1: Alex Smith
First off, the lockout may have forced San Francisco's hand to retain Alex Smith as their starting quarterback. All things equal I am sure that the front office would have taken a long look at the possibility of bringing in Kevin Kolb, Carson Palmer, Matt Hasselbeck or Kyle Orton. Instead, they handed the playbook off to the enigma that is Alex Smith.
Now, I understand that Harbaugh has confidence in Alex Smith. But, is that confidence overstated? Or, does Harbaugh really think he can develop Smith into a legitimate playoff quarterback? One thing is for sure; if Alex Smith doesn't perform he will be on a short leash because of the selection of Colin Kaepernick in the 2nd round of April's draft. Harbaugh's confidence in Smith could be nothing more than a smokescreen to show the veteran signal caller that San Francisco welcomes him back with open arms.
I like Alex Smith as an individual and believe that he has some of the skills necessary to be a solid NFL quarterback, but he hasn't live up to that #1 pick billing and it is hard to believe that he ever will.
Issue 2: Off-Season Preparation
It could be said that all teams are on a level playing field when it comes to this, but that couldn't be further from the truth. While the New Orleans Saints, Philadelphia Eagles and Indianapolis Colts, among others, have been working out of a playbook that has existed for the better part of the last five years there are other teams who had to learn an entirely new scheme.
During the brief break in the lockout in April several 49er players were able to obtain Jim Harbaugh's playbook. Additionally, it has been reported that "Camp Alex" had a number for former Stanford players on hand. But, that doesn't make up for the lack of preparation and contact with the coaching staff.
With an exception of a couple individuals the entire San Francisco 49er coaching staff was overhauled and they have not had contact with any of the players. This means that you are going to have less than or about two weeks between their initial contact and the first pre-season game; this cannot be good.
The only other team in the NFC West that compares to San Francisco in terms of coaching turnover would be the St. Louis Rams and that is the addition of Josh McDaniels as Offensive Coordinator. While it is going to be difficult for them, especially with a young quarterback; I don't expect those transitional issues we are going to see with San Francisco.
Issue 3: Limited Padded Practices
There isn't a lot of information about how Harbaugh conducted his practices at Stanford. But, sources tell me he was pretty hard ball about it. 14 padded practices in an entire 17 week season is pretty stupid if you ask me.
As Bill Walsh proved the lack of a "padded practice" really isn't a major obstacle for the west coast offense, however, this might mean that Harbaugh needs to change his approach when it comes to conditioning. Now, he is known as a strong willed individual, which we all have to love, but sometimes it makes more sense to just go with the flow.
Issue 4: Transition From College To The Pros
The fact that college coaches going pro don't have a lot of success is by now well documented. You don't have to look much further than Steve Spurrier, Bobby Petrino and Nick Saben to understand this. You can't argue that it isn't a difficult transition because it is. However, you do have the success that was evidenced by Jimmy Johnson, Barry Switzer and our very own Bill Walsh (RIP). There is no telling whether or not Harbaughs style and mentality will transfer well to the NFL, but you normally don't see half the league jumping at a college coach, so that has to bode well.
He isn't adapting a new scheme, he is bringing this new scheme with him. Stanford ran a pro-style offense, so that transition isn't too great. This has to be considered an issue, but I think we will all be okay with it.
Analysis:
There hasn't been much transition in regards to coaching in the NFC West. The one major transition besides San Francisco is McDaniels taking over as offensive coordinator for St. Louis; an obvious upgrade. However, the 49ers do have over a month to get ready for the regular season if the CBA is settled early next weed, as expected.
Additionally, Harbaugh is utilizing the same type of playbook that he did in Stanford, his coordinators from Palo Alto are joining him as well. This isn't the steep transition that normally takes place from college to the pro's.
However, Harbaugh didn't have the real off-season that most new coaches have, he is bringing in a new scheme for the 49er players and hasn't really conversed with players. Those are three major issues that could affect San Francisco moving forward. The good news is that San Francisco has the most talent in the weakest division in football. They also have the best coaching staff, in terms of experience, in the entire conference.
I don't think it is a lost season for San Francisco, but I do understand why some might think it is. If you are of that group please look further into the details that I mentioned above before coming to that conclusion.
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Arizona, for certain.
AZ still doesn’[t have a decent QB and say what you want about Alex Smith, he played better than anyone that AZ has and if AZ brings in Kolb, then Kolb and Smith are both in a position that they need to learn a new offense.
That said, Smith has the upper advantage with already having the new playbook and teaching it to the players. Smith has played more in the NFL and last year was better than Kolb. Both are about the same age and Smith has better tools.
The 49ers also have CK7 as the back-up and AZ still has nothing better as a back-up option.
I still think it's the 49ers
yeah the Cardinals don’t really have anybody at QB, but at least they’ve retained their coaching staff. The 49ers have an entirely new coaching staff.
Not a lost season, but I for one, don't have extrememly high hopes.
I fear that this will be a really rough transition, for a lot of the reasons you list. So, I said that the 49ers would be the most affected by the lockout, and subsequent rule changes. Still, this division is probably a bit below mediocre, so I’m not saying that the 49ers can’t win it. Looking back, I think that the Rams and the Seahawks had the roughest road to a divisional championship last season, and their week 17 match-up was winner take all.
Good news: We’re gonna find out how good Harbaugh is this season.
Bad news: even if he’s great, the team may still be awful.
the season will proably play out very similarly to last seasons
where-in the 49ers dig themselves a hole, then control their destiny anyway with all of the division games.
the reasons for the whole will be a little different though
still see division winner right around that 8-8/9-7 mark so, no legitimate excuses if they can’t get to that.
by whistlingmountain on Jul 24, 2011 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions
Deja Vu... All over again
This team is just so snakebit. In the past few seasons, there have been so many opportunities for this team to get over the hump, and beat somebody in a meaningful game. The game against the Saints last year, or that awful experience against Faaarv and the Vikings the year before. I really hope this team makes it to the postseason, and I can see where that’s a possibility, given the weakness in the division. But if that’s not in the cards, I just want to see them make a statement in a big game, and put one over on a good team finally. Baltimore and\or Pittsburgh would be awesome. Something to really build on. A confidence boost for the players, the organization and the fans… finally.
by Mertons_merkin on Jul 24, 2011 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions
If the Niners can tighten things up in the secondary, I think they have a real shot.
I think a lot of games were lost at the secondaries hands.
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by Drew Kerr on Jul 24, 2011 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
The Niners actually had the tougher road last season compared to the Rams and Seahawks
Every team in the division plays the same teams except themselves (obviously) and two different NFC opponents. The Niners ended up playing the division winners of the NFC east and NFC North, so their path was definitely harder.
by sanfranfanmdk on Jul 24, 2011 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions
I hear you
But let’s be honest, any year where you have six games against the Cardinals, Seahawks and Rams, is a year with an easy schedule.
by Mertons_merkin on Jul 24, 2011 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions
Well that argument is moot....
because all three of those teams have 6 games against NFC west teams as well.
by sanfranfanmdk on Jul 24, 2011 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm just saying
We play in a bad division. so do they. But adding two tough games makes it only marginally more difficult. Would the Steelers, Packers, Patriots or Saints be fretting about a marginally more difficult schedule if they were in the NFC West? no, they would own this division. Same way that the 49ers used to own this division.
by Mertons_merkin on Jul 24, 2011 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Lost season?
It became a lost season for the 49ers as soon as they made it their intention to bring back #11. He’s more lost than the season itself. Just chalk up another 6-10 and let’s skip ahead to 2012 already.
Del Mar Dennis
by Del Mar Dennis on Jul 24, 2011 10:08 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Doesn't this we get
"Bears are crazy, Willie. They'll bite your head off if you're wearing steak on it."
by Blank x2 on Jul 24, 2011 10:20 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Doesn't this ever get old? Like, ever?
P.S. – I hate my phone.
"Bears are crazy, Willie. They'll bite your head off if you're wearing steak on it."
I think that's the point
It is old. really old. Last year I felt like the best thing about Alex starting was that we would finally know, once and for all that he either had it, or he didn’t. And here we are again.
Really nice guy, hope for the best for him.
by Mertons_merkin on Jul 24, 2011 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Hope for the best.
That’s all anyone can do at this point. If he winds up the starter… and I still believe Kaep has a shot, then we will have to live with it. People who whine and cry about it aren’t going to change anything by doing that.
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Totally agree
Just saying, I can see where people are frustrated.
by Mertons_merkin on Jul 24, 2011 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions
Whine and cry?
This team has not even had a winning record since 2002. Forget the playoffs. We’re supposed to accept that annual manure without complaint? Do I look like a Lions fan to you?
I am sure the quarterback has been the ONLY problem since 2002.
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2009 and 2010
While 49ers are alive for the playoffs:
Shaun Hill 3-3
Troy Hill 3-3
Alex Smith 5-12
You can say that’s because of the end of the world due to the end of the Mayan calendar. You can say that’s because the Gold Rush outfits were too skimpy, or because the entire team had an annoying tendency to suck only when Alex started.
I honestly don’t care what the excuse is. Look at the numbers. Same coaches, same team.
by RTFirefly on Jul 24, 2011 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Who is Troy Hill?
Anyhow, it’s a team sport, therefor, wins are not a quarterback stat. W’s and L’s are a coaching stat. And maybe, just maybe Singletary’s game plan stunk all the time not allowing ANY quarterback to have ANY relatively good success.
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‘cause we all know that switching QB’s from week to week is normal practice… it’s what ALL the successful teams do.
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Troy Hill
It’s the Transformer name that comes from combining Troy Smith and Shaun Hill into the ultimate quarterback.
by David Fucillo on Jul 24, 2011 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions
OH MY LORD wins are NOT A QB STAT.
Sorry, I’m not one to write in all caps but this is me actually shouting.
complaints
I’m not one to complain too much about the team since there’s not a whole lot I personally can do, but I also think it’s perfectly understandable when people express frustrations about the situation. With Smith you could argue it falls into, “Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.” If people want to complain about the return of Alex Smith, far be it from me to stop them. Maybe they won’t change it, but consider it the airing of grievances.
by David Fucillo on Jul 24, 2011 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions
But doing it excessively really doesn't serve any purpose.
I mean, there are shrinks for that.
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Actually
I’d argue NN operates like therapy for plenty of folks.
by David Fucillo on Jul 24, 2011 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions
so where do I lay down again?
"Hi my name is Cliff Harris and I am here to lock [site decorum] down" - Cliff Harris introduction at his Freshman Orientation
Reporter : "What do you remember about the BCS title game"
Cliff Harris: "That we lost"
You have a point..
Some people grasp concepts and move on… others jump off the deep end. You can’t help everyone.
Oh well.
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well hold on
This isn’t about grasping concepts or whatever the case may be. Just because someone complains about a given player repeatedly doesn’t mean they don’t recognize the fact that the situation may not change. It doesn’t mean they’ve jumped off the deep end. Particularly given the extended run of mediocrity out here.
by David Fucillo on Jul 24, 2011 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions
So psycologically you are saying it helps people to complain
over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over again about Alex Smith…
I’d argue that it falls under obsessive compulsive and in some “special” cases pathological.
As I said, there is treatment and medication to prevent those things.
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I don't know
Is it helping you to complain about people complaining about Alex Smith? Because you’re doing it over, and over, and over.
by Mertons_merkin on Jul 24, 2011 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I ignore it way more than I address it.
When someone replies to a comment I made about nothing Smith related and address it, it’s hardly doing it over and over and over again.
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I hear you
I can see where that get annoying. It’s been a tough few years on everybody. Winning cures all, let’s hope that happens.
by Mertons_merkin on Jul 24, 2011 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions
well
If it keeps them from jumping off a bridge, so be it. I think if somebody goes overly negative about the season, provide arguments why they’re wrong (this applies to everybody, not speaking only to you) or ignore it. I think that creates a better dialogue.
by David Fucillo on Jul 24, 2011 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Context adds for better dialogue...
If someone provides intelligent insight as to specific reasons why Alex Smith will suck again this year opposed to the same ol’…
Alex Smith sucks
Alex Smith sucks
Alex Smith sucks
…comments would make for better dialogue in my opinion. If someone were to break it down and elaborate on it with more detail, it may not be taken so badly and looked at as “pathological”.
That’s all I am saying… I am not sayin people shouldn’t express their feelings, its just the rigmoral of generic comments that is tiring.
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generic comments
That’s all I am saying… I am not sayin people shouldn’t express their feelings, its just the rigmoral of generic comments that is tiring.
I can definitely agree with that.
by David Fucillo on Jul 24, 2011 12:43 PM PDT up reply actions
generic comments
My original issue was with this comment: “People who whine and cry about it aren’t going to change anything by doing that.” People can “whine and cry” about it all they want if they can provide a bit of substance to the argument.
by David Fucillo on Jul 24, 2011 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions
And this...
It became a lost season for the 49ers as soon as they made it their intention to bring back #11.
certainly falls under the category of generic… which is all I was trying to point out.
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Exactly
This is my problem with the “Alex Smith sucks” comments. It’s not offering up criticism about him—he’s definitely earned some. It’s the fact that there’s no discussion about why he’s going to suck this year compared to last year (when he actually didn’t suck but performed at a perfectly average level), this while being coached by Singletary with an offensive philosophy of run off center right, run off center left, crap it’s 3rd and 10 better throw it.
I’d like to see any QB succeed under those circumstances.
Even on third and long,
The surprise run it up the gut seemed to happen regularly
Alex Smith 86%+ QB rating with 22+ TDs in 2012, hopefully! :)
Why is Losing OK?
Why is losing OK? Complaining about a situation which has contributed to multiple dismal seasons is something that requires therapy, but accepting repeated crappiness from your franchise is not?
Rah, rah, rah, Kumbaya and all that. Let’s lose and keep our mouths shut. Wanting to win makes some people think us crazy.
Whatever.
The first 5-6 games
will be ugly with missed assignments and penalties. After that everyone should be familiar with the new offense. Defense should take half that.
Offenses always take longer to get into the swing of things
Our defense will look much better than the offense until it clicks. However I have hopes that Alex Smith will actually do better this year, simply because it’s a truth that if you really want to learn something you have to teach it. Alex has never run a training camp before and I think that although the “Camp Alex” probably won’t have any noticeable effect on the other players it’ll make a huge difference with him.
As much as I want the 49ers to win the west, I have a hard time putting it together.
I think the lockout is going to give a major disadvantage to rookie coaches.
I mean if Arizona gets a QB (besides Kolb), they could be contenders. Seattle could easily be back in the mix pending their QB situation. The Rams have McDaniel installing a new offense like the Niners, so those two teams could struggle.
I hope that Harbaugh finds a way to get them to learn the offense fast, or we’re in trouble. Camp Alex probably only did so much.
The NFC West will be pretty bad again though. Most of the other teams in the conference have established offenses and will keep the same personnel. Specifically, the playoff teams.
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If the Rams get a good #1 receiver, they could be decent
But you’re right, it all depends on the Cards and Seahawks QB situation. Kolb isn’t necessarily going to make the Cards suddenly awesome this year, and I have been hearing things about Hasselbeck going to Tennessee, so who will they have starting at QB, Clipboard Jesus?
by sanfranfanmdk on Jul 24, 2011 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions
I think McNabb or Vince Young is the best fit for what the Cards like to do.
And both won’t hesitate to throw it up and let Fitz make a play even if defended tightly.
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Yup
I think Kolb to the Cardinals would be awful for both teams. The Cardinals need a big, strong QB because their offensive line is horrid.
If Seattle lets Hass walk, then they will hit up free agency.
They would make a splash at the position. I am thinking they would be hard pressed to go with Clipboard Jesus.
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All the teams in the NFCW have a chance to succeed, but the 49ers have the best chance right now.
The Niners have by far the best personnel of the division. We need no major upgrades at any position to be contenders. The Rams, Seahawks and Cards do not have that luxury. It’s possible any one of them will be good, but unlikely for this coming year.
I don't think it is unlikely.
I think the entire division is up for grabs at this point. You can’t be so sure about the Niners when free agency has not even happened yet.
Previous seasons I have gone in to the year with a very optimistic attitude and got burned. This year I am not expecting much, and hopefully will be pleasantly surprised.
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Good point.
If we lose some quality players in FA and don’t pick up anyone to replace them, we may be in trouble (Lawson/Franklin are big ones).
I have a couple ideas about this year.
1) Harbaugh has coaches who totally understand his game. Coaches that can work well with the players.
2) Harbaugh has brought in an actual offense which will help Alex Smith and everyone else.
3) The new Defense should be a much better one.. better coaches and schemes
4) For the first time in years, the 49ers will actually have good game plans.
5) Alex Smith, for once, has the total confidence of the HC, and this HC knows how to work with QBs. (and is very good at it)
6) Intuition tells me that Harbaugh should be able to do more with the team not in pads than most. I believe it is the repetition that will help the team and after looking at SD and Stanford while he was there, he does know how to get the best out of his players.
Now, I am excited (hopefully the CBA gets signed soon), and ready to see and hear how Harbaugh is doing with the team.. I think we all understand that the media is going to be all of this Training Camp and Preseason and I bet my little red wagon (it was given away or trashed about 55 years ago), that this may not be a big win year, but it could and should be a very entertaining year!
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
My nutshell version...
It can’t get worse than Singletary and his squad of goons.
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Erickson wasn't that bad
he had the roster pulled out from underneath him.
Aside from being completely unprepared for the 1st quarter of road games though, the team still looked like an NFL team.
by whistlingmountain on Jul 24, 2011 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions
Erickson has been horrible...
ask any ASU fan and they will all talk about him like a lynch mob looking for Frankenstein.
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What I meant by that is...
he can’t even coach at the college level either.
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why should I care what ASU fans think?
Do they think they should be winning national titles?
by whistlingmountain on Jul 24, 2011 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions
thank you, that is exactly what I meant by "not that bad"
you clever clever soul
by whistlingmountain on Jul 24, 2011 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions
He is THAT bad...
And had you read what I wrote below that and not just responded to what you wanted to, we may have gotten somewhere in the conversation about Erickson.
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I've just been waiting for forever to use that picture...
In all seriousness, I’m still not totally sold on the it-was-all-Singletary’s-fault school of thought. Not saying he wasn’t horrible, just that fans are a little too quick to blame this team’s faults on one guy, then turn around and praise a coach that hasn’t yet coached one NFL football game, and say that this guy is going to miraculously save the team. Feels like a setup.
Again, I really think Singletary was awful, I really, really liked the Harbaugh hire. I think I’m just a bit more skeptical of this team’s roster than everybody else is. To my eye, there isn’t a lot of proven talent at QB, CB, NT, OLB, FB, WR, or S. And for all of the attention (via high round draft picks) There is only one standout player along the o-line.
That’s a lot of holes
by Mertons_merkin on Jul 24, 2011 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions
For the record
Every team in the NFL has holes on their roster. Every team has stand-out performers on their rosters, too. The hope is that the stand-outs can make up for the areas of weakness. the 49ers have stand-out players at RB, TE, MLB, and DE (in a 3-4). Hate to say it, but with the exception of RB, that is not where you want your stand out performers to be.
by Mertons_merkin on Jul 24, 2011 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions
The #1 Reason Singletary was awful
was seen in firing of Martz and the ensuing hiring process in which he scared off even the remotely talented offensive coordinators because he thought he knew better than them.
Ego is downfall unless you know what you are doing.
by whistlingmountain on Jul 24, 2011 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions
There's plenty of holes in the roster
but that’s a struggle that every NFL team has. I seriously could poke holes in every roster in the league. The difference really is coaching.
There’s a certain philosophy of management that goes something like this: 10-80-10. Basically it states that 10% of the members of any given group will always succeed, 10% will always fail, and the other 80% will rise or fail depending on the circumstances. This is just as true in the NFL as it is anywhere else.
I think the 94ers could easily be a 9-7 team with the right coaching. Singletary couldn’t make a half-time adjustment if his life depended on it. Manusky’s game plans for end of game situations stunk to high heaven. We have a new head coach who can at least make adjustments to his game plan. We have a defensive coordinator that’s an unknown quantity, but I think we’ll be ok with him.
In other words, despite the deficiencies on the team I’m feeling relatively good about this season.
Well, it depends on how you define a "lost season"
I don’t think there will be much argument that the team may be slightly less competitive than it could have been thanks to the truncated off-season. I don’t view it as a lost season, but I wasn’t looking at this season with a ton of optimism to begin with.
Personally, I see this as a rebuilding year. So while this lockout has hurt the team somewhat, I don’t think it will mean the difference between making the playoffs and missing them. New coaching staffs implementing new systems on both sides of the ball generally don’t have a ton of success out of the gate unless they were taking over a team that was already very good. Most of the time the team starts to click year 2-3 and onwards. Even in an “easy” NFC-W, I think the team will still have some struggles, and would have regardless of the lockout.
I think we will do fine
we will make the playoffs this year even if Smith is starting or Kaepernick.
"Hi my name is Cliff Harris and I am here to lock [site decorum] down" - Cliff Harris introduction at his Freshman Orientation
Reporter : "What do you remember about the BCS title game"
Cliff Harris: "That we lost"
As far as contending hopes go
Yes it’s a lost season. I mean, the NFC West is so bad you can roll the dice and win the division, but that doesn’t give us a realistic shot at advancing past the first round.
We have new and complex systems across the board and very little time to install them. We have key players on defense likely leaving in free agency or becoming salary casualties which means we are going to be starting young or unproven talent on our front seven and in the secondary.
It’s going to be a rough year.
As far as being able to see some progress, installing a culture that is conductive to winning football, and laying the foundation of a stronger franchise than we’ve had in the past decade, I don’t think it’s lost at all.
If we make it to the playoffs I'll consider it a successful season
"Hi my name is Cliff Harris and I am here to lock [site decorum] down" - Cliff Harris introduction at his Freshman Orientation
Reporter : "What do you remember about the BCS title game"
Cliff Harris: "That we lost"
100%
"Hi my name is Cliff Harris and I am here to lock [site decorum] down" - Cliff Harris introduction at his Freshman Orientation
Reporter : "What do you remember about the BCS title game"
Cliff Harris: "That we lost"
The Rams, Seahawks, and Cards forfeited all their games? Sweet!!!
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They realized they had no hope to win so they did
"Hi my name is Cliff Harris and I am here to lock [site decorum] down" - Cliff Harris introduction at his Freshman Orientation
Reporter : "What do you remember about the BCS title game"
Cliff Harris: "That we lost"
I'll consider it a successful season if the games are fun to watch.
I have not enjoyed a niners game, winning or losing, for a long time, with the exception of the final cardinals game. If we compete, show some variety and smart play, and don’t continually shoot ourselves in the foot, I will be happy with whatever record we get. Of course, I’d love a winning record, but one step at a time.
I think if the Niners make it, and it is a big ‘if’, then they can do anything… The Seahawks were thought to be annihilated in week one of the playoffs and they beat the defending World Champs.
I think once a team is in the dance, it’s all up for grabs at that point.. AZ did it a few seasons ago as well.
And I think by the end of the year, the Niners will have managed to get the full playbook down. So if they sneak in, I don’t think it is impossible for them to go further…
But like I said, getting there is a pretty big IF with all things considered.
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Jumping to conclusions early
Don’t know who the lockout will favor, won’t figure it out until the season.
The constant drumbeat is the New Orleans Saints, Philadelphia Eagles and Indianapolis Colts have the advantage because their systems are in place. Well maybe a team needs an entire off-season to properly tune their passing attack? If their offensive passing games are sluggish there is nothing else to prop these teams up to keep them from being swept under the rug. It may turn out the teams best suited for 3 yards and a cloud of dust strategy gain a significant advantage early in the season.
There are too many factors. The 49ers have talent and no significant barrier in the division. I won’t make a single lockout excuse to justify another bad season.
sd377 wants to ban me for unleashing the Kaepernick Supernova Gamma Ray
Regarding the Saints
their offense didn’t get clicking ‘til mid-season last year. They still have major issues in their defensive line. I would not expect them to do as well as others might expect. The Eagles are probably in the best situation. The Colts are going to have issues on both sides of the ball—they have probably the most intricate offensive system, though they do have the advantage of having long years of experience with that system (assuming they’re able to resign Peyton Manning).
"Lost season" might be a little heavy handed, but I think the lockout does temper expectations.
I think we’re really going to enjoy watching this team grasp the system and improve as the year goes on. That said, if this team has any chance of going .500 or winning the division it will be decided in the first 3 weeks.
SEA/DAL/@CIN—-3 very winnable games in a normal year. At least the players and coaches are all familiar with SEA on some level. DAL has a new(ish) staff, and the Bengals are the Bengals.
@ PHI/TB/@DET—-All 3 of these teams have a definite advantage in coaching stability and are at worst similar in talent. I think it would be hard to expect more than 1-2 from this in a normal year*.
I think 3-3 into the bye and this team wins the division, that just seems like a lot to ask though.
*"Normal year" is a reference to coaching stability, not the fact that DET is normally an automatic win.
I'm surprised no-one has mentioned how the lockout may have benefitted the Niners (to an extent)
We drafted Aldon Smith, Kaep, Culliver, and a number of raw rookies, in the latter rounds. All these players are developmental prospects, with Aldon and Kaep being potential blue-chip prospects. All the players we drafted have high ceilings, but are pretty raw… the lockout affects teams who drafted for the now, such as the Falcons, a lot more. Another season will help Mays come along, with Anthony Davis and NaVorro Bowman also, because they too were quite raw when drafted last season. There is no substitute for game-time experience, regardless of how well you do in training camp. A season to allow the rookies to develop will help massively next season. I can see a big push for the play-offs the following season!
Alex Smith 86%+ QB rating with 22+ TDs in 2012, hopefully! :)
Mays, Davis, Bowman...
They are going to be starting from scratch again… they may be well-aware of the speed of the game, and have an idea about certain opposing players tendencies but they too will be learning a brand new playbook both offensively and defensively.
I think there is a wrong way to coach and a right way to coach… Singletary’s approach just wasn’t the right way…
Jim Harbaugh seemed to have a good grasp at the college level but he (like the players) will need to make the adjustment as well. He won’t be coaching hungry college kid anymore, he’s coaching a lot different breed in the millionaire, well-fed pro. So the verdict is out on that. The one thing Harbaugh has going for him is that he is the son of a coach… A lot of people in his family are not only coaches but successful ones. Not saying that will make or break his career but it’s something to consider.
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by Drew Kerr on Jul 24, 2011 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
That's a good point
But a full training camp with Harbaugh was in no way going to make Mays, Bowman and Davis into pro bowl players. I still think they would have needed a whole season under Harbaugh to fully develop and, as you said, grasp a new playbook. I don’t think it affects the Niners as much as people think.
Alex Smith 86%+ QB rating with 22+ TDs in 2012, hopefully! :)
The one main difference we will see in Harbaugh opposed to Singletary
is that Harbaugh studies a ton of film and takes note of what his guys do well and runs with that making the adjustments…. Singletary was more from the school of thought that you need to perfect what I want you to do.
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I am very confident that Harbaugh will have a very solid grasp on what every single player does well and does not do well
once camp hits… he has not been on vacation during this whole lockout thing.. he’s been in the lab dissecting and assessing.
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How does anybody know this stuff?
Tempering our expectations of what a first time coaching staff is going to be able to do is probably a good idea. I don’t know how many times 49ers fans have to go through this before we learn not to blame everything on the guy that is gone, and bestow sainthood on the new guy coming in. This is still a team that hasn’t had a winning season in a very long time, and nobody has won anything yet this year. I’m hopeful about the new staff too, but I’m concerned that coaching can only do so much, and that these players haven’t done much worth writing home about.
by Mertons_merkin on Jul 24, 2011 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Because the Niners are the best
And Harbaugh is great.
Alex Smith 86%+ QB rating with 22+ TDs in 2012, hopefully! :)
Yep exactly, Harbaugh will have a game plan for each team. It honestly shows how much talent we have when we won 6 games last season with little to no game preperation
I think our Niners will surprise, and do quite well this season. I can’t see how people don’t think the Niners can win the division this upcoming season. I honestly think Alex Smith will do well. The Cardinals need a better version of Derek Anderson to lead that offense, not Kevin Kolb. The Seahawks have the least talent in the division imo, especially if they lose Mebane (who seems set to go to Denver). And the Rams – Josh McDaniels (though a great offensive coach) can disrupt the harmony quite easily. Can see him and Spags having a few difficulties working together… I definitely think we will win the division next season.
Alex Smith 86%+ QB rating with 22+ TDs in 2012, hopefully! :)
I will have a better idea of where the Niners stand after free agency hits and is over.
That, and hearing things out of camp and watching the preseason games. Though they don’t technically count, I think it still tells us who we are going to be watching all year.
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