49ers vs. Saints: Battle For The Fifties
by David Fucillo on Aug 11, 2011 6:01 AM PDT
in 49ers Roster
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PrintThe San Francisco 49ers visit the New Orleans Saints tomorrow in a game that will help figure out key starting and backup roles on the roster. We'll find out more about the Anthony Dixon vs. Kendall Hunter competition. We'll figure out where Colin Kaepernick is in his development. We'll even figure out who exactly will be starting at the two safety positions.
This first game will be arguably more important for the players at the bottom of the depth chart than at the top of the depth chart. The team will make an initial roster cut later this month in advance of the final cut down to 53 players at the end of the preseason. We'll have plenty of posts about the numerous position battles, but I thought I'd put together a rundown of players I view as locks, bubble and expected cuts.
We know who most of the locks are and the preliminary depth chart at least gives us some clues as to bubble players. Feel free to offer up your critiques of my locks, bubbles and expected cuts.
In putting together this list, I was conservative in many respects, but also a bit aggressive in a couple areas. For example, I believe guys like Colin Jones, Bruce Miller and Will Tukuafu are likely to make the roster. However, at this point I'm not comfortable with them as locks.
At the same time, I have six wide receivers as locks and don't see any reason to remove a single one of them. Kevin Jurovich is listed as a bubble guy right now but I am more inclined to thing he is unlikely to make the 53-man roster because I just don't see the 49ers carrying a seventh receiver.
Cornerback was another position that I had trouble separating out "locks" from "bubble" guys. Outside of Rogers, Spencer and Culliver, is there anybody you look at and say, there's no doubt he's on the 53-man in four weeks time? I think Adams, Brown and Brock could all end up on the roster, but it's such a tight battle I just don't know at this point.
Are there any locks listed that you think are much more tenuous than I believe?
LOCKS
QB (2): Alex Smith, Colin Kaepernick
RB (3): Frank Gore, Anthony Dixon, Kendall Hunter
FB (1): Moran Norris
WR (6): Michael Crabtree, Braylon Edwards, Josh Morgan, Ted Ginn, Kyle Williams, Ronald Johnson
TE (2): Vernon Davis, Delanie Walker
OT (3): Joe Staley, Anthony Davis, Alex Boone
OG (3): Mike Iupati, Chilo Rachal, Daniel Kilgore
C (3): Jonathan Goodwin, Adam Snyder, Tony Wragge
NT (2): Isaac Sopoaga, Ricky Jean-Francois
DE (2): Justin Smith, Ray McDonald
OLB (4): Aldon Smith, Parys Haralson, Ahmad Brooks, Antwan Applewhite
ILB (3): Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman, Scott McKillop
CB (3): Carlos Rogers, Shawntae Spencer, Chris Culliver
S (5): Donte Whitner, Reggie Smith, Dashon Goldson, Madieu Williams, CJ Spillman
P (1): Andy Lee
K (1): David Akers
LOS (1): Brian Jennings
BUBBLE
QB: Jeremiah Masoli, McLeod Bethel-Thompson
RB:
FB: Bruce Miller, Jack Corcoran
WR: Kevin Jurovich
TE: Colin Cloherty, Konrad Reuland, Chris Blohm
OT: Mike Person
OG:
C: Chase Beeler
NT: Ian Williams
DE: Will Tukuafu
OLB: Thaddeus Gibson, Kenny Rowe, Monte Simmons
ILB: Blake Costanzo, Larry Grant, Alex Joseph
CB: Tarell Brown, Phillip Adams, Tramaine Brock
S: Colin Jones, Chris Maragos, Taylor Mays
CUTS/PRACTICE SQUAD
QB:
RB: Xavier Omon, Seth Smith
FB:
WR: Tyler Beiler, Joe Hastings, Chris Hogan, Lance Long
TE:
OT: Derek Hall, Kenny Wiggins
OG: Nick Howell
C: Donovan Edwards
NT: Sealver Siliga
DE: Brian Bulcke, Demarcus Dobbs
OLB:
ILB:
CB: Phillip Davis, Cory Nelms, Anthony West
S:
K: Fabrizio Scaccia
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Hard to see McBLT making the roster
and hard to see the 49ers subjecting Ian Williams to waivers (I don’t think he’ll make it to the PS).
Some people here who went to practices said Nelms was looking good. Fangio mentioned him also in the press conference.
Think McBLT has practice squad written all over him.
and agree about Ian Williams, he’ll make the 53 I think.
Kaep may become our Staubach, but Alex is our Craig Morton...
Nelms is likely battling Adams at this point.
Spencer, Rogers, Culiver, Brown, Brock are the CB’s thus-far. That’s 5 and I’m guessing we keep 6.
The sky isn't falling. It was just an acorn.
I tweet, therefore I am
Don't think Johnson and Kilgore are locks
Do think Miller and Tukuafu are locks
It’s going to be an interesting balance between getting some of these guys on the roster who are young and not ready. Though I’ve said before, I don’t think the waiver wire will be as risky this year with the short off-season and large TC rosters. There are also still a bunch of ok vet FAs out there. It’s a saturated talent pool.
Norris is such a waste of a roster spot..
by whistlingmountain on Aug 11, 2011 6:51 AM PDT reply actions
IAWTC
All of it: RoJo and Kilgore maybe off, Miller and Tukatufu on…
And above all, Norris being a waste of a roster spot.
Kaepernick may have some growing to do as a passer, but you don't get to 10,000 yards passing in college without being able to read a defense.
Twitter me at twitter.com/grantmp1
RoJo over Williams at this point
Sounds like he’s getting lots of looks in practice.
D is off
McKillop is definitely bubble. I’d put Costanzo ahead of him and Keaton Kristick, whose name is omitted here, at least even. Also not seeing Spillman as anywhere near a lock, with safety so competative and plenty of alternatives on special teams.
Spillman is our best ST player by a mile
and he’s competitive as a safety. That’s a lock in my book.
Kaep may become our Staubach, but Alex is our Craig Morton...
I think C.Taylor, Mays, Maragos are fighting for last spot
The sky isn't falling. It was just an acorn.
I tweet, therefore I am
and Jones
who has to show up on ST’s BETTER than the above.
The sky isn't falling. It was just an acorn.
I tweet, therefore I am
You think we'd cut Mays?
Eghhhh, I have a hard time seeing that. Agree on Jones/Taylor/Maragos though.
Kaep may become our Staubach, but Alex is our Craig Morton...
would you keep him if he wasn't better than Taylor/Maragos/Jones?
Just to save face cause you drafted him? I don’t think you can.
The sky isn't falling. It was just an acorn.
I tweet, therefore I am
I think they might
I don’t think he’s bad enough to let him go in favor of a bubble player. He’s got upside like Alaska has snow.
Kaep may become our Staubach, but Alex is our Craig Morton...
idk, he simply cannot turn his hips
I don’t know that he can play in most schemes.
The sky isn't falling. It was just an acorn.
I tweet, therefore I am
like Dixon though
it’s too soon to cut him. He’s got potential to improve and could position change, worst case scenario.
Kaep may become our Staubach, but Alex is our Craig Morton...
Dixon is fine.
He belongs in this offense Harbaugh has, not the “up-the-gut and punt” offense.
The sky isn't falling. It was just an acorn.
I tweet, therefore I am
No no, I agree
but some people were saying it’s either “you have it or you don’t” – I’m just pointing out that that’s a silly proposition for second year guys.
Kaep may become our Staubach, but Alex is our Craig Morton...
Agreed , as much some think this was a Singletary pick , it has Baalke written all over it ...!!
I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ...Jimmy Raye your no daisy ...!!
Costanzo is our best ST by a mile
and none of us yet has any clue how good Jones, who was drafted in the 6th round specifically for ST, will be.
Meanwhile, safety has 3 locks- Goldson, Whitner and Smith. Assuming that we go with 5 safeties like last year, (and I can’t see more given the situation at CB), this means you’re claiming not just that the once-cut UDFA Spillman beats out 2 of multiple year starter Williams, 2010 second rounder Mays, or 2011 6th round ST ace Jones, (not to mention former draft pick Taylor and Maragos), but that he is a lock to do so.
I’d be short that calculus.
First, you say “…none of us yet has any clue how good Jones…will be,” but follow it up with “2011 6th round ST ace Jones”… so which is it?
Plus, in what way is Costanzo our best ST player? We just picked him up this year. Last year, on this team, Spillman was the man. Costanzo may be good and he may know the coordinator but right now he’s an unknown. There’s no major highlight footage of him that I could find.
Mays is not a lock to make the team at this point. I don’t personally believe he’ll be cut, as I said above, but he is neither a good safety nor a special teams ace at this point, so I’m unsure what’ll happen to him.
So, let’s analyze the safeties we have:
Goldson, Whitner: starters
Smith: Primary backup
Williams: Secondary backup
Mays: sucks as a safety, but has upside
Jones: 6th rounder, unknown value (PS eligible)
Taylor: oft injured former 7th round pick
Maragos: a 2010 UDFA who hasn’t seen any significant playing time (and has PS eligibility)
Spillman: 2009 UDFA who played in San Diego until mid-last season. Hasn’t seen major time at S, but is an ace on ST.
Considering the glut of DBs we have, I think it makes sense to keep Spillman as the ST “captain” even if he’s not good enough to beat out the S ahead of him, since all 4 “locks” are multi-year veterans of the position, not ST guys.
Kaep may become our Staubach, but Alex is our Craig Morton...
Fyi, Lock != "I think he should make the team"
All due respect, but what you happen to think is not relevant. A ‘lock’ is a player the team is certain to retain on its roster. Even by your own accounting, which I find wanting, Spillman is someone who ‘makes sense’, which is not something you need to say about, say, Patrick Willis or Frank Gore or even some of the locks most of us wish weren’t.
Spillman is not a lock, because it’s very easy to imagine the team figuring it would be better off with another option. If we score a players attractiveness by potential development and immediate impact, Spillman scores low on the first metric and high for a non-position player on the second. On that basis, he could get beat out by Jones if the latter turns out to be a very good special teamer with potential at the position (the unknown quantity is projected to be an ace- that ok?). Ipso facto, not a lock.
There are also several other potentialities that involve Spillman not making the roster- a guy who, lest we forget (and we might as you neglected to mention it in your accounting) San Diego cut last year. One of those involves us not cutting last year’s second round pick. Crazy thought I know.
And while you claim Mays ‘sucks’ as a safety, i.e. does not have development value, I’m not sure how convincing that assessment is, (nor how fair it is to heavily discount his considerable contributions on ST as this does implicitly). If you’ll forgive me for taking the opinions of NFL scouts over your own, the former All-American was pretty high on multiple draft boards last year. Not normally a characteristic enjoyed by a camp body.
Ah, but you say, he didn’t play well last year. Well, if we had held Reggie Smith to that same standard, i.e. judged him based on his first year performance, he wouldn’t be around this year to take up a roster spot. So I’ll go ahead and say that’s not really fair. Saying all that, I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if the guy was cut because clearly the organization has a problem with him that I suspect we’ll hear more about in due time.
Bottom line is that if one of these bubble safeties was to catch fire in training camp and the exhibition games, the team wouldn’t flinch for a second at dropping Spillman, just as it didn’t flinch in dropping Robinson last year when we had far fewer alternatives to him on special teams. Again, ipso facto, not a lock.
And speaking of special teams, the reason Costanzo is our best ST player is that people who know football better than your average fan, (ehem), had him as an All-Pro at that position in 2009. Your argument that he isn’t our best because… he wasn’t on the team last year(?), just fyi, is pretty feeble.
Well the safety position is a confusing mess
But there are a couple things I’d like to point out.
I don’t think Spillman is a lock, but I do think he’ll make the final S position while we try to stash Jones on the PS.
Mays will likely be gone for 3 reasons. First, we’ve already tried to shop him and have clearly stated we are not looking at him as a LB. Second, he changes direction like a fully loaded 747. Third, he takes some of the worst angles to the ball that I’ve seen in red and gold.
As far as the draft — he was rated quite high because he was so fast for his size. Then he refused to run agility drills and looked completely horrid in DB drills, and after his own college coach passed on him the red flags started going off like crazy and we were the team dumb enough not to see them.
It’s not that he didn’t play well last year, it’s that he doesn’t have the necessary physical ability and football smarts to play the position.
I do agree that if somebody else catches fire then Spillman is expendable, but I’m not sure how likely that is.
Few things back at ya
Fast for his size didn’t make him an All-American. His performance between the lines did that. And he’s not ‘fast for his size’. He’s fast and also inordinately large. Also, his coach passed over him after taking a future Pro-Bowler in Earl Thomas, (who the niners should’ve chosen instead of trading up for Davis, but whatever), at 14th overall in an extraordinarily deep draft. That’s not exactly a devastating assessment. I think lots of scouts/teams figured he could be a potentially top tier attacking/close to the line safety in a 3-4, but noted that he would never be a great cover guy/ball hawk like Thomas. Hence the lesser appraisal as the latter are the most valuable.
Whether or not you are very wrong or very right, and the guy is actually the manute bol of safeties as you have described him, I’m not claiming to know. What I am claiming is that he undoubtedly has a fair amount of talent and athleticism that afforded him a lot of success down on the farm at USC, and that he hasn’t had anywhere near the opportunity to remediate the weaknesses in his game at the NFL level, such that all that talent shines through, for us to be wanting to kick him to the curb already.
I happen to think it’s not terribly likely he’ll be a great NFL safety, if only because Sing was so high on him. But I also don’t think that cutting him for some UDFA scrub who can make a slightly better contribution to special teams is worth giving up on whatever chance does exist. He’s got enough game to give him the three years Reggie Smith got, e.g. that punt-block TD was v. promising.
All that said, I happen to agree with you that he won’t make the team in one way or another because of something we’re not as yet aware of (Harbaugh/Baalke grudge, Jed saving a bit of spending money, whatever). They’ve just treated him far too shabbily for that not to be the case, and counter-productively so given that the very public treatment has undoubtedly crushed his trade value, in addition to humiliating him. Whatever the grudge, it’d better be good.
BK, Sang, Ougadas
Just needed to comment … thoughtful and interesting arguments from all three of you without being argumentative. This is so much the best site I’ve seen for useful discussion of this, or other teams. Thanks for contributing!
by OffensiveInterference on Aug 11, 2011 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions
I just don't think it's a grudge
If your hips are that stiff, you can’t play safety in this league.
Even a “thumper” needs to be able to play underneath or over the top in a Cover 1 from time to time. If teams know that you can’t, it limits the blitz packages you can throw at them.
I think Costanzo makes the roster, as much for ST as being the fourth ILB after Willis, Bowman and McKillop. Think Spiller makes roster too, again for ST as much as anything.
Spiller == Spillman
Ahhh, dreams of the 2010 draft that could have been…
Kaep may become our Staubach, but Alex is our Craig Morton...
yeah im curious
though..didnt see a whole lot of cj spill highlights last year..did he have a tough rookie campaign?
He was an 09 UDFA on the Chargers
but they cut him mid-season last year, we signed him, and he was awesome on ST
Kaep may become our Staubach, but Alex is our Craig Morton...
think he meant Spiller
He didn’t get too many touches last year. Galey will get him more involved.
The sky isn't falling. It was just an acorn.
I tweet, therefore I am
DOH!
I made the same fail I teased LondonNiner for making. Me = moron :)
Kaep may become our Staubach, but Alex is our Craig Morton...
no worries
my typing this morning feels like talking with marbles in my mouth :p
im not sure if i make any sense below..lol
Grant seems to be a lock at ILB now, though.
He’s even pushing Bowman, some.
The sky isn't falling. It was just an acorn.
I tweet, therefore I am
I'd say that Grant is a lock before I'd say McKillop is a lock.
McKillop would be on the cut-side of the bubble, in fact. I’ll be really surprised if he made the team.
Kaepernick may have some growing to do as a passer, but you don't get to 10,000 yards passing in college without being able to read a defense.
Twitter me at twitter.com/grantmp1
McKillop might not even be a lock at this point.
I hope his knee is 100% back to prior level and he’s a man on fire on ST’s.
The sky isn't falling. It was just an acorn.
I tweet, therefore I am
I don't see us going to war
with 4 D Linemen.
Repeating something over and over doesn't make it true.
scratch that
I had a moment of idiot. I’m better now.
Repeating something over and over doesn't make it true.
That just may be , because that show ... Idiot Abroad , which by the way was one of Favorite's ...!!
I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ...Jimmy Raye your no daisy ...!!
I want to see
at least one of the bubble/camp body WRs make the roster. I agree though that we won’t carry 7 WRs, but I’d like to see one of the little guys get a shot at the big time.
Kaep may become our Staubach, but Alex is our Craig Morton...
I'm sure they'll be on PS
Edwards, Morgan, Ginn all in last year of contract
Williams 2nd year, Johnson Rookie..
There could be places for them next year, but not this year.
by whistlingmountain on Aug 11, 2011 7:29 AM PDT up reply actions
Good call...
I’m still rooting for one of them though :D
Kaep may become our Staubach, but Alex is our Craig Morton...
I think we'll keep 6 WR's:
Crab, Braylon, Ginn, Morgan, KW, RoJo
The sky isn't falling. It was just an acorn.
I tweet, therefore I am
i agree they need 6
to run the WCO…not so sure on Ronald Johnson…we’ll see how he performs in the lights, the noise, the glamour that is preseason.
Hey if they keep
6 WR-they are going to go one less at another position group…where do you think that will be?
FB, OL, DB
I think 8-9 OL’s is the # and last year we had 10. I think 10-11 DB’s and last year we had 12 I believe. Only need 1 FB, if any. I think a TE can play FB in goal-line and rest of the time it’s not a premium from a blocking standpoint.
The sky isn't falling. It was just an acorn.
I tweet, therefore I am
ughhh
that means alot of Moran Norris…NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO>>>>
In all seriousness my other 8 locks below already factor in 8 OL and 10dbs (assuming t. mays beats m. williams..
So we gotta take on off the lock or possibly a back up linebacker…? Not sure who though.
Anyone else see Dashon NOT playing tomorrow?
I think it’s too soon to play a live game after only 1 padded practice.
The sky isn't falling. It was just an acorn.
I tweet, therefore I am
yeah, wondering why Fooch said we'll see which safeties start
cause I think it’s Whitner and Williams for sure…Goldson and Reggie aren’t factors.
The sky isn't falling. It was just an acorn.
I tweet, therefore I am
my bad
Didn’t even think about Dashon not playing on Friday when I wrote that.
by David Fucillo on Aug 11, 2011 8:12 AM PDT up reply actions
it doesn't say that? what are you even talking about?
;-)
The sky isn't falling. It was just an acorn.
I tweet, therefore I am
by Tre9er on Aug 11, 2011 7:53 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
thanks for correcting that
Ummm….not that there was a mistake. It was after my first night in Las Vegas so not surprised by mistakes.
by David Fucillo on Aug 11, 2011 8:13 AM PDT up reply actions
im right on
with most of your 45 locks, that leaves 8 roster spots:
We need a third qb, its masoli’s job to do enough to win it in preseason and hopefully be that taser/option/jack of all trades guy—-if not cut veteran qb out in a numbers game.
Tarell Brown is not on bubble hes in and should be a lock, theres been nothing in the meeting to suggest otherwise. Tramaine Brock will get the spot over P.Adams due to health.
Blake Costanzo and Larry Grant are in.
I’d like to see Ian Williams and Tukaufu but feel ricky f.’s ability to play both DE and NT might sadly make Tuk more expendable.
Team keeps Taylor Mays, too valuable to cut, plus its still possible he beats out M. Williams.
Konrad Reuland takes the injured Nate Byham’s place..with chris brohm and/or colin cloherty going to the practice squad.
I don’t see Jurovich as the bubble guy on WR. If anyone, I think that’s Tyler Beiler or Lance Long. Just from what I’ve heard about the practices.
I can’t see Ian Williams going to the PS. Might as well put him on the Locks, IMO.
Scott McKillop over Larry Grant? Not from what I’m hearing. And I’m not sure Applewhite makes the roster over Gibson. I’d put Antwan as a bubble guy too.
I think both Colin Jones and Blake Costanzo are locks for Special Teams. Maybe a new “ST” category for Special Team gunners. Spillman would fall into that category too, IMO.
Sadly, I think the only CBs on the bubble are Tramaine Brock and Cory Nelms. I don’t see Brown or Adams making the team. Adams is PS, IMO. He hasn’t recovered from last season’s injury yet. And there’s no indication he’s going to return to pre-injury form.
I agree with others who think the team won’t cut or PS Taylor Mays. Not this season, at least.
RoJo will make the roster because of his return value. He’s a KR/PR and a lock to push for slot or #2 receiver in a season or two.
receivers
You really them carrying seven wide receivers?
by David Fucillo on Aug 11, 2011 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions
I can't see more than 5 sticking....
Davis Gore and Walker can all play split out to give us a 5-wide look. No need to carry 6 or 7 receivers to bump another guy off the roster.
by 9thevolution on Aug 11, 2011 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions
I rather have Bruce MIller
than Moran Norris. I don’t think Norris is such a hot commodity anyway.
Why sure he is
He’s the leading tackler on Frank Gore and he does it with his back!
Our division rivals will be all over him!
Not sure it’s legal for them to line him up in our backfield though.
leading tackler?
And I thought he is a blocker. But since he really can’t catch the ball, Harbaugh probably wants somebody more versatile.
While its always fun predicting these
It’s still a bit too early. Let them play it out on the field and earn there spots.
NEVER
Overreaction now is absolutely necessary.
by David Fucillo on Aug 11, 2011 10:13 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Few Locks/Bubble switches....
I’d put Norris on the bubble group with the other FBs. While we’ll definitely keep at minimum 1 FB, and possibly 2, I don’t think Norris is a lock.
I’d move RoJo and K. Williams to bubble guys. I doubt the team is going to keep 6 WR, because we have other players who can be split out wide; Davis, Walker, Gore.
Switch McKillop and Grant. Grant was a starter, though in a different defense, and McK was injured.
Move Wragge, Applewhite and Spillman to bubble. We’ve got competition there and there’s no guarantees for these guys.
Doubt McBLT is on the bubble, I’d say he’s more a PS guy. Sounds like Masoli has the #3 locked up and he can be a gadget player, so we don’t have to run Kaepernick out there to do something dumb and get hurt.
Move I. Williams and Tukuafu to locks
By my count
There are 45 guys listed above-as locks, which would leave 8 spots for additional roster spaces.
(1) Masoli. Would def need a QB3
(1-2) Konrad or Cloherty. Depending on how Harbs plans to utilize TE’s, 2 most likely isn’t enough
(1) Tukuafu or Williams. Would need another DL for rotational purposes/insurance.
(1) Brown, Brock, Nelms. A 4th corner would give insurance against injury/staff the team for nickle and dime packages.
This would leave a minimum of 3 roster spots for ST guys.
(3) Mays, Costanzo, Jones
I think both Tukuafu and WIlliams will make the 53
"Hi my name is Cliff Harris and I am here to lock [site decorum] down" - Cliff Harris introduction at his Freshman Orientation
Reporter : "What do you remember about the BCS title game"
Cliff Harris: "That we lost"
Don't think Ginn is a lock.
Most of his value comes in his return ability. But the team has many other players who have return experience or have had reps returning in camp. If he doesn’t make it to the 53, we have Josh Morgan, Ronald Johnson, Chris Culliver, Kendall Hunter, Delanie Walker, and Kyle Williams who all have return experience in the NFL, college, or in camp.
If Ginn shows little to nothing on offense during the preseason there’s no reason to keep him when we have 5-6 other guys who can return and make contributions on offense or defense.
I survived the David Carr Press Conference Thread 3/06/2010
And Harbamania. And the San Francisco Giants 2010 World Series season.
by Hoopers Judge on Aug 11, 2011 11:38 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
as a receiver
Ginn has shown more than Crabtree or Williams or even Josh Morgan.
In terms of return capabilities…Ginn far outperformed last years’ roster- leaving RoJo, Kendall, or Cully to compete with him.
Ginn is a lock.
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