Braylon Edwards Contract Requires Some Big Numbers
Matt Maiocco just tweeted out some details about Braylon Edwards 2011 contract and for a one year deal it's fairly interesting. According to MM, Edwards has a $1 million base salary that is not guaranteed. He can earn the full $3.5 million if he catches 90 passes and earns a trip to the Pro Bowl.
It's worth noting that the last time a 49ers receiver caught 90+ passes was when Terrell Owens hauled in 100 in 2002. Since then, the highs are Eric Johnson with 82 in 2004, TO with 80 in 2003, and Vernon Davis with 78 in 2009. Can Braylon Edwards reach those kinds of numbers between in the new offense?
His career high in receptions is 80 with the Browns in 2007. That season saw a monster year from Derek Anderson and Edwards didn't even have the highest receptions total. That honor was reserved for Kellen Winslow who had 82 receptions. However, Edwards led the team with 1,289 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns.
In the current 49ers offense, Edwards has said he's in town to make some noise. The question is whether the noise will be heard over the rest of the offense? Suddenly this offense is looking at a host of potentially dynamic playmakers from Edwards to Vernon Davis to Frank Gore to Michael Crabtree. The pressure is off any one weapon, which might very well mean strong performances abound. Of course, as with everything related to the 49ers it comes back to Alex Smith. It seems like it always comes back to that.
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I hope he catches 120 passes for like 1800 yards and 25 touchdowns.
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If he does that, the Niners better outbid anyone else.
I really hope he doesn’t do as well as that… but I hope he exceeds the 90 catches or whatever… just barely.
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franchise tag if that happens lol
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by HUNGRY HUNTER on Aug 5, 2011 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions
or
extend mid-season. If you see he is on our side and is being professional and playing well you can lock him up and show good faith.
too much off field issues to just give him long term deal after 4 months of good behavior.
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by HUNGRY HUNTER on Aug 5, 2011 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions
You want him to just barely reach his incentives?
That doesn’t make sense.
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It kinda makes sense...
If he actually came close to 120 receptions and 25 TD’s, then I’m pretty sure he’ll want to be paid accordingly, and this would most likely be as the highest paid receiver in the league. That’s a number I doubt the Niners would want to pay. Also, if he’s getting 25 TD’s, then that might mean that Alex Smith would have performed beyond what anyone expected of him and would require a hefty pay raise as well, possibly requiring the Franchise Tag himself.
That is a problem I will take any day
Just last week we were talking about how difficult it will be to land FAs because we have been down so long
If he has 90 catches and makes the Pro Bowl
With Alex Smith or Kaepernick as his QBs, he’ll have tons of interest already. If he’s making those incentives, blowing past them isn’t going to change much.
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, future CF for the World Champion San Francisco Giants.
"And besides, if I wanted to participate in a mindless patriotic ritual where my voice isn’t really heard, I would vote." - Chris Marcil
I've never understood or agreed with statistical incentives for WR, RB, TE
just breeds discontent with teammates and coaches when offense is about being a unit.
Not like a DE collecting sacks or a safety getting interceptions.
by whistlingmountain on Aug 5, 2011 8:58 AM PDT reply actions
Stats incentives.
I agree. You cannot dictate how many times the QB is going to look you off…. or if you are not open initially on the first progression, you could be open a second later and wonder why your QB is not getting you the ball.
Some positions, I think it is okay for… but WR is def one that shouldn’t have it.
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I don't think Braylon is playing for those stats, or the extra couple mil.
It’s a small contract, and only one year. He’s playing for his best so he can score later: even if he reaches that statistic goal, he’s still not making top money. I doubt this will be too much of an issue.
Even that (S and DE incentives) can be dangerous
Performance based incentives often have unintended consequences.
Yep
With worse consequences than giving up a big play — like oh I don’t know — complete economic meltdown?
It's nice tho
that you get to get your million dollar bonus even after you derail the world economy.
Wish I had a crack at that job lol
This is a freaking steal if this is true
The team got him basically for vet min. for a guy who has the tools to be a #1 WR and had always been productive. If he even gets close to the numbers he had as a Jet, all of us would be happy.
Alex or even Kaep must be walking around with huge smiles. VD & Braylon as your redzone options, that is freaking sweet
And he is still only 28, we were not talking about an aging wideout at the end of his career who is trying to keep his career going. Braylon has the capacity to have another 6 to 7 good years. That is an awesome deal
an awesome deal
would have been to Lok him up for 3-4 years. It doesnt appear the 9ers are sold on him yet..this is his audition. Problem if he does get close to 90 catches and a probowl..what do you think it will cost to resign him then as a free agent?
That is the question
The market for him if he achieved those incentives is difficult to gauge because we dont know who else will on the market and if a team is willing to take a chance on him. I would say the Niners would be the favorite because they were willing to take a chance on him and the relationship between Coach Harbaugh & Braylon’s father would come into account.
My first instinct is to say 5 for 50 to 60 million but I could be way off and thats only if he goes beyond those incentives
by Lok on Aug 5, 2011 9:16 AM PDT up reply actions
Keep a very close eye on Fitzgerald's contract situation this year....
If Edwards meets these incentives, and the Cards can’t lock up Fitz long term, Edwards will try to hold off until Fitz sets the market and go from there. That could get into some very dangerous bidding wars.
We all want our players to succeed and the team to win, but it would be better if he comes in a little shy of this and shows he’s ready to keep it clean off the field and produce big time on it. If that happens, the team could even be generous and build that lost money into the next contract in the form of other incentives.
by 9thevolution on Aug 5, 2011 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions
Man alive
He must have had NO market for an agent to agree to that. None of it guaranteed?
It could have been Coach Harbaugh who proved to him that he was needed here
Braylon saw that if he went to Arizona he would be the #2 to Fitzgerald, he wanted the chance to be the #1 WR and that is appealing concept to someone like Braylon
by Lok on Aug 5, 2011 9:07 AM PDT up reply actions
I think Harbaugh was a huge influence on him agreeing with the 49ers
in Edwards press conference yesterday he said he’s known Harbaugh all his life.
He is in SF to get a Ring!
per twitter twating with other teammates, so I fully expect a trophy this year.
being a homer, i think SF is a better position that any of the other 31 teams, guess i suffer from delusion, oh well.
/cant wait for the season to start!
Aug 12
First preseason game vs Saints. This will be the first year that all Preseason Games are valuable
sadly they have both to
get starters ready very quickly and to evaluate the team from 90 down to 53+8
it’s gonna be rough and the play is going to be so terrible
by whistlingmountain on Aug 5, 2011 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions
I be surprised
The FAs will have had just a few practices (maybe 7 max). Most of them were signed with at least the expecation they can perform. I doubt many of them will be subjected to game play the first game and maybe not even the second.
I think you will see a reversal of the norm and the last couple games is where you will start to really see the starters playing ball. This is good to get them ready, but bad for the rookies that need the time and practice before those last couple games to show what they can do. We will see, each team may handle it differently.
Alex Smith
It does all come back to him. But with a new (viable) target, and an offensive scheme that includes, I dunno – a GAMEPLAN, I think we’ll be a strong contender in the NFC West. Not sure it can go much beyond that, but I’m cautiously optimistic.
You know..
“Gore up the middle” (Lather, rinse, repeat, punt)
by StereoPete on Aug 5, 2011 9:08 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Hmmm. Good idea
I have been so excited to hear that from day 1, Harbaugh has been teaching them how to Shift and Motion to change the look of the play at the line. For the last two years, especially, this was sorely lacking. That SD game was disgusting. Everything on the line, the best (statistically) D in the league, and we come out, line up, cadence for 4 seconds trying to read the D and run the handoff up the middle that everyone knew we were going to run! Disgusting to say the least. I have high hopes that at least we will have a chance to attack the weaknesses of our opponents. We may not be great, but at least we will fight!
Do they still sign malcolm floyd?
James Jones was interviewed on 95.7 the other day and was interested in niners but his agent was ignored and never got a response back, later resigned with packers
That would be awesome
Would put Crabtree on notice, give us 2 viable new WR targets, and make life a little easier around here… (I love the idea of having Floyd, Edwards, Crabtree)
This Braylon Edwards thing
just keeps getting better. The contract is $1 million base, no guaranteed money? Outstanding. I hope Edwards hits all of his incentives and gets that $3.5 million, but it won’t be easy. How were no other teams willing to throw some money at Edwards? The 49ers just took a low risk and could get a super high reward (Edwards too).
If Edwards makes it 8 games into the season with no problems and great production, I’m wondering if the FO quickly hammers out a 3-year extension.
They better.
I will be pissed if he has a probowl year and they don’t extend him ASAP.
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extension
If he is having a strong year, I’ve gotta think he bides his time till free agency.
by David Fucillo on Aug 5, 2011 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions
I am just saying if he is happy and production is there, the Niners would be stupid not to lock him down longer during the year.
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I agree
Try is definitely the key word.
by David Fucillo on Aug 5, 2011 9:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Might depend on Crabtree too
If he comes out of his hole and produces, maybe Edwards is expendable. If Edwards has more off field issues or becomes a cancer (ala TO), his production may not matter. We wil see. There a a LOT of IFs in this deal. I do not like Edwards the man, but this contract seems very 9er friendly, so it seems like a solid move.
Let's hope he values security over total value
An injury late in the year will cost you a lot more money :(
It's definitely a crucial year for him in staring at his future.
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clincher might have been there was very few teams with actual interest in signing him lol. he clearly needs to prove that he can keep himself out of trouble.
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by HUNGRY HUNTER on Aug 5, 2011 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions
there may have been a team offering a little more money but clearly there was no team willing to pay him 6-10million guaranteed this year or give him a long term contract.
"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin
by HUNGRY HUNTER on Aug 5, 2011 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions
for a veteran like him, yes. if not for the off field issues especially the one that just happened a few days ago he would have had a much larger contract. good wr make 8-10million a year on long term deals. he took one million guaranteed IF he makes the opening day roster. he could be cut tomorrow and not make much more than a bag of popcorn.
"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin
by HUNGRY HUNTER on Aug 5, 2011 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions
I think sometimes you just take the opposite stance to me just to take the opposite stance. lol
Ok, I agree with you just so that we agree.
"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin
by HUNGRY HUNTER on Aug 5, 2011 9:52 AM PDT up reply actions
clearly the market for him was very very soft.
"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin
by HUNGRY HUNTER on Aug 5, 2011 9:39 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't think so
there were other teams looking at him and for $1 million any team could pay that. I think this is all due to Harbaugh
Josh Johnson for Taylor Mays!?!?!
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by Kidd2Petrovic on Aug 5, 2011 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions
Why not?
Maybe Tampa Bay will throw in a 5th rounder too
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by nocal81(Vincent) on Aug 5, 2011 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions
And that would be worth last year's 2nd round pick....
even though Johnson is a free agent after this year? Absolute waste of draft resources. Keeping Mays as a back up for the rest of his contract would be better for us.
by 9thevolution on Aug 5, 2011 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions
Hope not.
Focus needs to be on Kaep and Smith. You don’t bring in a 3rd QB to compete. Not in this shortened season.
Niners will prob carry 2 QB’s and use Masoli or something as an emergency.
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Put Johnson aside for the second, do you think the team needs a veteran QB to be the 3rd?
by Lok on Aug 5, 2011 9:40 AM PDT up reply actions
Nah.
I think Harbaugh is content with Smith and Kaep. He does not need to have a distraction like that right now. Time is not on his side. Focus will be on the two mentioned.
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No time for patience...
the train has pulled out of the station and the steam is coming out from underneath… guys are reachi—
okay… I am done with that analogy.
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Aaaah so it all reverts back to patience!!
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by Kidd2Petrovic on Aug 5, 2011 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions
Braylon has never caught 90 passes in one year, most was 80
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/7179/career;_ylt=AnJ1wPy.2eUeEQWCeO3S.JX.uLYF
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Yeah.
He will have to have the best year of his career with Frank Gore wanting carries, VD wanting the ball, Crabs wanting the ball.
If Braylon gets 90, that means Crabs is only getting about 50, or so.
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why do receptions matter?
get the ball, make a play. Jerry and John were so awesome because they competed on who can take the ball further after the catch and break tackles. I would love to see everyone with low receptions instead of one guy with 120 catches.
money, he needs them to get more money.
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by HUNGRY HUNTER on Aug 5, 2011 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions
I think drew and hungry hunter were referring to the 90 receptions
Braylon needs to get a boost in pay.
(your comment is why I don’t like fantasy football)
Just speaking solely on Braylon's incentive number.
But I agree with you.
I’d rather see the production spread all over the place because that means they are playing as a team.
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I meant why are receptions important to the FO
Lets all chip in to pay Braylon if he doesn’t meet his goal but is a real benefit to the team
Yeah.
I am confused by it.
I don’t even remember the last time a Niners receiver had 90 receptions…. maybe T.O.
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I'm wondering
If that incentive counts as Likely to Be Earned with regards to the cap, even though it really isn’t very likely.
I'm not sure what that would buy them though
Maybe making sure they hit the salary floor if they don’t add any more players and cut some that they are paying decently?
That's just the way it's been done forever and ever
just like you measure a rb by his tds and ypc. it might be stupid, but until advanced stats become more common place that’s the way it’s going to stay.
He had 17.1 & 7 TD
Better than any receiver on the team
by Lok on Aug 5, 2011 9:53 AM PDT up reply actions
advanced stats are starting to make a huge difference
as is witnessed by the success of both Football Outsiders and Pro Football Focus.
Major networks all but ignore them though, and until you see analysts for those networks and newspaper writers start to use them that won’t change.
Sando (i know you hate him) mentioned new QB ratings
that supposed to make more sense than the old one.
that would help
but it still is only part of it. A 1 yard pass when the team is at 3rd and 9 is more valuable than a 1 yard pass when it’s 1st and 10.
A 5 yard TD pass is more valulable than a 75 yard pass that doesn’t result in a TD.
nah I don't necessarily hate Sando
he has good stuff most of the time but he it seems that he hates the 49ers
I used to disagree with ppl who said that 2-3 years ago
But lately I think I’ve started to see it become blatant
The new QB ratings are absolutely horrible.
Have you seen how they work them? Basically, a QB is graded on how he performs in situations that are beyond his control. It tries to bring “clutchiness” into the situation, but ends up making quarterback rating even MORE subjective than before. ESPN takes a broken system and breaks it even more.
You think so?
I thought it was a step in the right direction.
Everything’s subjective to some degree. What specifically do you take issue with?
The idea is definitely sound.
The problem is the premise. The QB is graded, not on his overall performance, but on his “contribution to winning the game,” which is subjective at best. Many of the ideas are valid, but it basically assumes that a QB who performs better in clutch situations should get a higher overall rating. Clutch is inherently subjective, and a QB who plays for a team with a bad defense against a bad defense will automatically gain a boost that is not indicative of his personal performance.
exactly
the whole notion of clutch is crap in a game like football where so much depends on the other guys on the field with you
I see what you mean
so like, a QB might be rated higher just because his D sucks more, forcing him into more clutch situations.
Makes sense
And it punishes quarterbacks on losing teams.
One of the few things I like about the current rating system is if there’s a bad team, but he is a personally efficient QB, he’ll be okay. See Alex Smith.
QB rating should be about the QBs individual performance, not the game itself.
That’s the point of the QB rating, as I understand it. Straight up points are a much better indication of whether or not you contributed to winning the game. obviously. That’s not what a QB rating is there for.
Mind explaining what's horrible?
The QBR formula takes into account down, distance, field position, time remaining, rushing, passing sacks, fumbles, interceptions, how far each pass travels in the air, from where on the field the ball was thrown, yards after the catch, dropped balls, defensed balls, whether the quarterback was hit, whether he threw away the ball to avoid a sack, whether the pass was thrown accurately, etc.
Each play carries “clutch weight” based on its importance to game outcome, as determined by analyzing those 60,000 plays since 2008. The stats adjust for quarterbacks facing an unusually high number of these situations.
also the sacks thing is crap...bad o-line, bad rating....
by ericalancanty on Aug 5, 2011 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions
the problem with all of these advanced stats is that
they’re reverse formulated in order to get the results they want for certain players, then applied to other players.
In this case, they want certain guys who “win” to be better, so the formula for it is centrally based around winning.
It also rewards QBs who take chances over QBs who choose consistency ( which is always undervalued ).
shrug
by whistlingmountain on Aug 5, 2011 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions
Totally. Advanced stats are geared towards explaining why the people you think are great should be great.
However, some advanced stats reward consistency, some don’t. It’s really up to the statistician what he likes, and where he weights certain aspects. Ratings are super subjective, be they advanced or otherwise. The best stats are ones that try their best to predict future success, which is why I like what Football Outsiders does. But all ratings need to be taken with a grain of salt, and I don’t think this ESPN one is any better than other rating attempts.
That's what I meant by ratings being subjective
is that how you weight a given stat is all subjective. No surprise these ratings gave high ratings to the QB’s who have a reputation of greatness.
I guess predicting future is a good “objective” goal
You would like Brian Burke's work
All advanced stats should start at the team level with an answer to the question — what wins football games.
Once you’ve answered that question, then you can drill down to offense and defense and start evaluating player performance in that context.
Granted there are entanglement issues for multiple positions, but I do think you obtain better objectivity when you have a firm base to build on.
really,
I’d think that YPC would be more valuable than # receptions.
After all, a failed bubble screen for 3 yards counts as 1 reception.
It could be that we don't know all of the details too.
A lot of times these incentive based deals are not just one thing or the other.
Usually they give them multiple avenues to hit the incentive bonuses.
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And I can come up with a 1000 arguments about why something else is more important
Maybe it was the blocker in front of him (you know the guys setting the screen) and he still made a great catch with a corner all over him. Maybe the coach is using this play as a decoy to set up the back side. There is huge value in being a decoy sometimes. Maybe the QB made a bad pass and the WR had to sky for the ball, screwing up the rythm of the play…. blah blah blah.
Statistics are meant to provide a view over the long haul. Receptions for a WR are similar to carries for a RB. If the coach keeps calling your number, it is pretty safe to say you are doing what he wants (or he is confused calling the plays over the headset…)
I wonder if he gets most of the money if he makes the pro bowl. I think that is much better chance of happening than 90 catches.
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by HUNGRY HUNTER on Aug 5, 2011 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions
The 90 catch thing is a bit lame in my opinion.
There were a lot better ways to build an incentive based contract.
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Have players on winning teams been upset?
I usually thought that sort of angst pops up when the team starts losing
not if you really did not intend to pay him that much. his agent might have said throw him a bone if he does this and this.
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by HUNGRY HUNTER on Aug 5, 2011 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions
and joshua morgan is on the last year of his rookie contract and joshua morgan has never had numbers close to braylon.
joshua morgan is going to get paid 5-7million a year after this year.
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by HUNGRY HUNTER on Aug 5, 2011 9:53 AM PDT up reply actions
He had only 53 catches and got to over 900 yards
I mean if he got to let say 70 catches for about 1,000 yards to me that would be worthy of an extension
by Lok on Aug 5, 2011 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions
Pretty smart by the FO
He could get suspended for a couple games. If by some miracle he gets those numbers after missing a couple games he needs to get a long term deal asap
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by EcERyda69 on Aug 5, 2011 9:40 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
this deal is absolutely amazing for the team
i thought it was incredible when it was $3.5 million this year not $1 million.
As an aside does anybody know how money paid out for performance is counted in salary cap numbers?
The offensive line..
Am I the only one who is really excited about the new Offensive line? I can’t remember the last time we had a pro bowl lineman, and this year we have a shot to have two.
Smith might actually have time to throw instead of running for his life. With time, any QB can make plays, I just hope Alex proves that he belongs in the NFL.
Davis still struggles in pass blocking and cannot be trusted on the blindside until he proves he can stop speed rushers
Still not sure why he does that.
If a speed rusher wants to go inside where you have help waiting and his athletic advantage is minimized — oh I don’t know — let him.
instincts?
It may be hard to correct it. I’m sure I’d go left if a 300 pound guy looked like he was heading that way.
Maybe
There are lots of “instinct” tics that must be trained out of athletes by teaching proper technique.
And the absolute first one is that the first step should be inside anyway.
Unless the guy is so far outside that you have to come to meet him, you should always close the gaps inside out. You should never have to bite on the inside because you should always be offset that way when you meet anyway. The outside defender should have to work across you to go inside, which should be pleny to time to get your hands on him and reroute. Never understood this. Usually this same issue goes along with dropping your head, which is THE cardinal sin in pass protection, but they do it all the time. If you cannot stop the bull rush from a squared position, it is time to do more sqauts.
it was the case when I did my study on first round busts
one of the things I looked at was the college position and it was a very high number of LT that started life as TEs
I would bet that for every 5,000 there is 1 or 2.
You looked at a handful of guys, not the entire college player database.
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i just realized I said half the LT in the league
when I meant half the starting left tackles. big difference there
I still think it is inaccurate.
When colleges are looking for TE’s, they are not looking for high school linemen. They are in Texas looking for players that are big and fast….not big and slow.
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Like I said
when I did the research on the first round busts a year or so ago that was what came out and it surprised me. I’ll have to see if I have the spreadsheet on a flash drive somewhere and pull it up again—my hard drive died since I did the original research so I may have lost that.
It's not inaccurate.
The biggest TEs coming out of HS get converted to LT very regularly. If you’re a 265 lb TE leaving HS you’re gonna be a 290 lb LT in college
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Aug 5, 2011 12:47 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Out of this last draft
Nate Solder, Tyron Smith and JJ Watt were all HS TE’s. I think Joe Thomas was as well and know Bulaga was.
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Aug 5, 2011 12:50 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I guess I'm more interested in the "good ones"
I don’t really care about the LT’s in most Div 2 schools / players that don’t go on
The Goodwinn signing was underrated
Could possibly be the met important signing this offseason. Having a stout o-line can take you a long way
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by EcERyda69 on Aug 5, 2011 9:55 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
a lot of unknown
I am super excited and I see us running the ball very well. Passing is different. Every lineman last year struggled in pass blocking. The biggest thing is if Anthony Davis improves. A lot have commented that he just isn’t quick enough to beat speed rushers, but I hope he has been working on that a lot. Maybe ballet will help him
I'm pretty excited to see Braylon in a WCO. Not sure if Cleveland ran that during his time there but...
he’s got good size, quick, and looks like he can turn a slant into a big gainer.
by Sactown_Loyalty19 on Aug 5, 2011 9:52 AM PDT reply actions
The leash on Smith will be a short 1
Wait for it, wait for it, yeah 49ers sign, an undrafted free agent, AGAIN!!
I think it depends on how the team is going along with his own performance.
If they start 0-5 again, he will almost definately be yanked. But if he is doing ok and the team is winning I don’t see them making a change.
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doubt it, Kaepernick won't exactly be great with no off-season
the offense IS going to look horrible for at least the first quarter of the season
if it doesn’t then the 49ers will win the division easily.
by whistlingmountain on Aug 5, 2011 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions
I think Kaepernick is going to be the best QB in this draft class and other QB's are starting from this rookie class.
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mmm... not sure.
I think Kaep is going to be sick.
VY skills with a much better head on his shoulders.
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I was joking btw
I really liked the Kaep pick, and was shocked he went so low (in terms of QB).
Man, I should have said “your boy Ponder” to make it more obvious
Lol... I am glad you didn't.
We don’t need the Florida State blogging lynch mob over here again.
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They'll never come here again after he is laughably bad
Don’t worry though. I’ll go over there DAILY to let them know their boy effing sucks.
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Aug 5, 2011 12:52 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I hope you're kidding
College fans are always high on their own guys. I think it’s easier being the bigger man and just ignoring them at this point.
by David Fucillo on Aug 5, 2011 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions
huge fan of Kaepernick and Dalton
so yea I think they’ll both be good if they get good coaching
But that doesn’t affect this year. Kaep is going to be bad as a rookie, all of these rookie QBs will be. Let alone the 49ers where the line is also young and changing, new system for everyone, etc..
Smith is going to get a lot of pre-season playing time to get him ready, which will hamper Kaep even further, and I can’t imagine they’ll want to throw Kaep out there if the team is doing really badly until late late in the season.
The only way he gets in is if Smith gets hurt, which… might happen if the line is anything like the last few ears.
Really though, I think people should be preparing themselves for 8 weeks of offense about as bad as the last couple years. I don’t see how it would be any other way. They’re going to be bad and I’m sure it’ll be frustrating.
by whistlingmountain on Aug 5, 2011 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions
Dalton
I think he can be good, better than good even… I just worry that Marv Lewis will smother him like he has every other player over there.
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Marv ain't gonna be there past this year
But that won’t mean they hire a good coach next
by whistlingmountain on Aug 5, 2011 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah. Jay Gruden is not a bad guy to have there...
I just think that Marv will contradict everything Gruden teaches Dalton.
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I don't know about the offense being that bad...
We’ll still lean heavily on Gore and the running game, but it will be much more creative. Even if the other team knows it’s a run and stack the box, I think we’ll be creative enough to still pick up yardage and sustain drives.
by 9thevolution on Aug 5, 2011 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions
they were 24th in yards/points last year
I fully expect them to be in that 22-26 range for the first 4 weeks of the regular season, and to be probably 26-32 during the pre-season while they are learning new plays as they go.
First game is in a week after these guys just started practicing..
by whistlingmountain on Aug 5, 2011 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions
Not in preseason I doubt....
I think that established teams won’t have as much incentive to play starters much even with the shortened offseason. I suppose we could start off the regular season performing sub-par, but I wouldn’t go so far as to even begin to compare last years offense to even a fraction of this year’s playbook.
That 24th ranking was acheived by a Singletary/Raye 49ers team. Our offense was so putrid we had to fire the only OC we’ve had for more than one season within the first three games.
by 9thevolution on Aug 5, 2011 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions
well put a bookmark on this then
I think it’s unrealistic to expect the offense to be better than bottom 3rd to start the season, and yet many fans are putting that expectation out there and already blaming something so low on Smith again.
Can see what’s going to happen from a mile away..
by whistlingmountain on Aug 5, 2011 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions
You think the Niners will have a bottom three offense with
Frank Gore
Braylon Edwards
Michael Crabtree
Vernon Davis
Delanie Walker
Josh Morgan
Kyle Williams
Ron Johnson
Upgraded Oline
…???
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It's possible that whistlingmountain is right, to start the season.
It’s a new system, and Harbaugh hasn’t coached in the NFL. He made need to learn some things, as well as the players. I disagree, I think we’ll be right around 16th, but that’ll be a huge step up from seasons past.
Well define "start the season"
Like first couple games? Or first half of the season?
I could possibly agree if it is first couple games as they will be working out the bugs… but Harbaugh is not going to be running up the gut every play like the last coaching staff was. And even as bad as THEY were, they still finished at 24th in the league without Frank Gore the entire year.
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I tend to agree with you.
I think it’ll only take a few games for the offense to start clicking, if that. Obviously my hope is that they’ll be ready from game 1. Luckily, our first two games are at home, and one is against the seahawks. Even if we perform at a low level, we could pretty easily get 2-1 to start the season.
But is it even worth mentioning bottom 3rd if it's just the first couple games?
It’s not where you start but where you finish anyway.
I just can’t see us getting worse than the previous regime.
It’s like the opposite though now for me… I am more worried about the defense ’cause there is so much change than I am the offense.
I believe Aldon Smith is going to surprise a ton of people though. It’s going to be a major upgrade immediately in terms of a pass rush. A Fangio led pass rush could do wonders for the turnover ratio.
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The first 4 weeks of the year, yes.
If they are not then they are outperforming proper expectations, if they are then I don’t think it’s a big deal.
by whistlingmountain on Aug 5, 2011 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions
They weren't even that bad with Sing and Raye.
You think Harbs will be worse than that in his first 4 weeks?
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I agree with Drew above....
It’s likely that we are bottom third of the league to start out, but I think with the players and coaches we have, I think there are a lot of other teams that are worse off.
Really, I shouldn’t even argue it because I don’t care if we are dead last in offense……. W-L is all I care about and if we’re winning, I’ll watch the offense go out and stink it up every week.
by 9thevolution on Aug 5, 2011 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions
Only a handful of teams have changed entier coaching staffs
Even less had to hold out their starting QB for the CBA to be ratified.
Even less ( none? ) have their #1 WR on PuP and have brought in a new #1 in his place for the pre-season.
They also brought in a new center, who handles the blitz pick-ups..
I don’t know how there will be a lot of teams worse off. The 49ers are THE worst off team in the league as far as lockout effects go.
The one benefit the 49ers have is that Seattle(wk 1) also changed QB/OC, but they have defensive continuity. Dallas has almost 100% continuity in wk2..
by whistlingmountain on Aug 5, 2011 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions
If you add context to all those generalized statements it doesn't sound as bad as you're making it.
We still have one of the best RB’s in the NFL.
We have the best TE in football.
We have a potential servicable QB under Harbaugh.
We have a much better line with Goodwin (SBXLIV Center), Iupati, etc…
I mean, the weapons are there. The offense won’t be run up the middle, three-and-out anymore.
I really, no matter how hard I try cannot fathom bottom 3.
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I believe that this offense will let loose a bit more and be a bit more ballsy
than conservative Singletary and Raye.
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maybe "bottom third" just isn't as bad as you think it is
I mean, I don’t think they’re going to be epic levels of bad they were in 2007..
For every long-term improvement we expect ( and I do mean we, I expect them to be at least an average offense by the back third of the year ), there are short term set backs.
Just going to roll off some offenses that I know for SURE are going to be better than the 49ers ( also in general, but I’m talking about the first 1/4 of the season )
Packers
Patriots
Colts
Saints
Texans
Chargers
Steelers
Ravens
Giants
Eagles
Cowboys
Bears
Falcons
Chiefs
That’s 14 right there.
How about offenses which we’re sure, or expect, the 49ers will be better than?
Carolina, Cleveland, Seattle, Buffalo, Oakland..
Where exactly do you see this offense coming in after 4 weeks? Better than just about every team that isn’t basically guaranteed to be better than them?
by whistlingmountain on Aug 5, 2011 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions
I see more middle of the pack.
I mean even some of the team you mention up there (i.e. Giants and Chiefs)… I see the Niners potnetially having just as good offenses as them.
I could be wearing homer glasses but I certainly don’t think it is realistic to see them as a bottom three. WCO’s rarely ever will be in the bottom portion of the league… even the less successful ones.
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Maybe by the end of the season, but to start the year
how can the 49ers be better than the Giants on offense to start the year?
That’s a team with the same offense, same QB, mostly same line, same running backs and they were 7th and 5th offensively last year. Top 10!
A good test would be, where do you put them in comparison to the Rams? I see them on almost entirely even planes right now. They both have some lack of continuity, but Rams brings back same QB, who could start at beginning of camp and brought in a serious offensive line upgrade. Both teams brought in offensive gurus, both teams brought in wide receivers..
by whistlingmountain on Aug 5, 2011 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions
Well who exactly do the Giants have that is so special?
Eli? He can’t do everything by himself. I mean Nicks is good but not great… Their running game is not stellar. They have David Baas playing center now opposed to O’Hara… I’d say that is a step backwards… I really don’t see anything special about New York’s offense.
Bradshaw and Jacobs production was deteriorating towards season end… etc.
I think the Giants will not be better than Philly or Dallas offensively in that division…THIS YEAR!!
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They were 5th and 7th last year
8th/8th the year before and 3rd/7th before that
You’re looking for something special, but they’ve established themselves as good offense.
by whistlingmountain on Aug 5, 2011 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions
Key-words...
last and year…
They were getting worse and worse as the season progressed. By seasons end, they were not 3rd/7th.
They had a good first half and that carried them statistically.
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Anyway
we are getting off-track…
Point is, is that the 49ers most likely will not be as bad as you are claiming.
I mean , some people will expect the worst and hope for the best…and maybe that is the approach you are taking but thinking in realistic terms… no way (even weeks 1-4) that the Niners have a bottom three offense with that much talent in a WCO.
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I don't think you are considering just how bad the offense was
under Sing and Raye…. there will be a vast improvement and immediately.
I think it is real easy to fall in to the negative outlook thing due to recent history… but this is not going to be the same 49ers team we have seen…. and right out of the gate.
We will see a lot less 3rd and longs and see a lot more 3rd and managables. We will have a lot more 1st downs on 1st down due to a much more aggressive passing attack…
It really will not go backwards from where it was. Backwards would mean worse than a Sing and Raye coached team that was STILL ranked 24th in the league… just a testament to how much talent is on the 49ers roster offensively.
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The Niners offense will be better than the Bears, probably on par with the Chiefs.
That’s my take on it, at any rate. Which puts us at about the middle of the pack.
right out of the gate?
definitely bookmarking this, too bad I can’t private message.
by whistlingmountain on Aug 5, 2011 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions
Already bookmarked.
I think you’re off on this one…
And in any case, I hope you are.
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Honestly, I'm not sure. Right out of the gate is a high expectation.
Certainly by the bye week, I expect the Niners to have settled and be a middle of the pack offense. The Chiefs have an incredible rushing attack, but their passing is lacking. I think Frank Gore may be able to compare to that, and our receiving corps is comparable as well. As the Chiefs are around middle, I’d say it’s not out of the question.
Also, like I said, it’s the Seahawks, Cowboys and Bengals first up. Our new offense won’t struggle too much against those teams. Eagles? A fan can always hope for the upset.
While there's no guarantee...
I’m taking into account that we have a better coaching staff who can put our players into better position to succeed, even on a limited playbook.
Picture back to how badly we were embarrassed in week 3 against the Chiefs. That is not something that is going to happen under our new coaching staff.
You are right that it is likely we are in the bottom third, but I’m being optimistic. I wonder how much better the other teams who were lower than us have gotten, or how much the teams just ahead of us have improved. Those aren’t teams with really well established systems, and I doubt their player organized workouts are helping that much.
We’re only talking about improving 4 positions in the rankings with a much more competent coaching staff and gameplan and a boat load of talent.
by 9thevolution on Aug 5, 2011 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions
If they are not in the teens for the back half of the year, I would be really disappointed. Just think people are expecting it to start the season, and looking at the list of established offenses that are bringing back almost everyone they had, taking up the top 14 or so..
Just think the 49ers are in a mix with about 12 teams, of which most are in a slightly better position to start the season because of system continuity.
If they surprise out of the gate, then hell, lock up the division. I’m fully expecting people to be jeering Smith though and blaming him if they’re 1-3. Which they probably will be.
by whistlingmountain on Aug 5, 2011 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions
If we are losing from the start, and are indeed 1-3 as you think
it will be more on the defense than it will be on the offense.
‘Least that’s my take on it.
All the turnover on defense is going to be the biggest factor in success or not being succesful. Not the offense.
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That's reasonable...
You also have to remember that basing the assessment on the first few weeks is very subjective. You have to look at the matchups for every team in the league.
A team like Buffalo could have some favorable matchups and be a top ten offense after 4 weeks. The opposite goes for the better teams who could have unfavorable matchups and end up middle-of-the-pack. The Colts, for example, could potentially open the season with Nate Davis as their starting QB. That won’t happen, but it’s possible. Also, a QB who’s considered good/great could potentially fall flat on his face (think Delhomme in the first 2 weeks of ’09) and tank that teams ranking.
All of that will change by season’s end, but it’s subjective to start the season. Considering our matchups, we could be ranked top 10 in offense if we lean heavily on Gore and sustain drives.
by 9thevolution on Aug 5, 2011 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions
Good points.
I mean:
Week 1 – Seahawks @ Home
Week 2 – Cowboys @ Home
Week 3 – @ Cincinnati
Week 4 – @ Philadelphia
Outside of Philly, none of those teams have frightening defenses. I mean, the Cowboys have Ware but he is not the entire defense… check that, he is their entire defense.
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Plus Newman will be out...
Rob Ryan will be on even ground with Harbaugh in terms of something being new and fresh…
I really don’t see any major concerns.. or, reason to believe that we will be bottom three offense in those four games…. With the talent we have, again, just hard to see that being true.
I’m not saying impossible but I have a tough time seeing bottom third portion of the league.
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Very true...
There is other turnover throughout the league that is affected by the lockout.
The Chiefs lost Charlie Weiss, the Browns have a new coach and offense, the Raiders are likely to have a bit different approach and philosophy with Jackson taking over, Rams have new offense, new coordinator and QB in Seattle, new coach and QB in Tennessee, etc., etc…..
Call it homerism, but I see too much talent to completely fail coming out of the gate. Our coaches are now capable of changing the gameplan at halftime as well.
Philly is not frightening....
Just because they loaded up on FAs this doesn’t make me feel any different than I did after the last game; when we kept it reasonably close into the 4th quarter and could’ve potentially won the game if we caught a break here and there. That was Mike Johnson’s second week running Jimmy Raye’s offense.
It’s completely reasonable to believe that we can once again keep it close and still produce effectively on offense. Also, haven’t we been able to throw pretty well against DRC when he was in AZ? And who’s covering Davis? Gore? Just because they landed Nnamdi doesn’t annoint them the “Dream Team” in my eyes; as they like to call themselves.
Executionwise, maybe
Gameplanning and attacking the weaknesses of the opponent. No comparison. The first time we shift at the line and motion a player across the defence, I will know that Roman is probing for weaknesses.
Yeah I don't think that's true.
Kaepernick will only be put in if the situation is dire, or hopeless. And I doubt it will come to that. If it does, it will be patently obvious. Harbaugh isn’t stupid enough to pull a QB because of losses: he will pull Alex for poor play, and nothing else. We’ll see what happens.
First 2 Games
I’m a little worried about not having Braylon (Suspension) and Crabtree (Stupid Foot) for the first 2 games. I REALLY want to beat the Seahawks and Cowboys.
Oh.
It is 90 receptions OR Probowl… he can make the ProBowl with less than 90 catches
Lets all make sure we vote like crazy when time comes if he is producing.
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This is kinda stupid on the agent's part
But it certainly will motivate Edwards to play the best he has. If he flops this year, he’s going to make even less than if he took a long-term contract this year.
All he has to do is make the Probowl.
We can toss out the 90 reception thing.
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And he will be one of the top WR's in the NFC if he can stay healthy.
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4 receivers make pro-bowl?
Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson will get in no matter what
A bunch of teams feature heavy passing offenses with continuity..
by whistlingmountain on Aug 5, 2011 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions
Is it 4 or 5?
I’m not sure…
Anyway, I think that Edwards can easily be in the top 4.
Fitzgerald
Johnson
and then maybe…
Dez Bryant
Braylon Edwards
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I forgot about Desean Jackson...
Could be the wildcard in that equation.
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Last year it was
Fitzgerald, Rice, Jackson and Austin and then Steve Smith and Roddy White replaced Fitzgerald and Rice
Johnson got hosed and his popularity will skyrocket this year.
Then you have guys like Maclin, Harvin(if he stas healthy), Colston, Jennings and Nicks
It’s a tough nut to crack. Edwards probably needs to get TARGETED 130+ times to make the pro-bowl. That’ll be difficult with a Davis/Walker/Crabtree/Gore..
by whistlingmountain on Aug 5, 2011 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions
I think he can do it... big name and all that plays a big factor.
It’s all about the Sportscenter highlights in terms of Probowl.
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Don't fans only matter for starters?
He’s not going to crack top 2 voting.
by whistlingmountain on Aug 5, 2011 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't disagree.
I think Megatron and Fitz are one and two in that order barring injury.
But he can get in. That is all I am saying. Probowl voting is a lot less based on stats, and more based on fans perception. Harbaugh and the Niners have the ability to boost that perception. If Vernon can go, so can Braylon.
Plus, you have to remember that SB teams don’t feature their WR’s in the Probowl…
That could eliminate guys like D-Jax and Roddy potentially.
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You're giving him a bit too much credit I think....
Let’s see, aside from the staples of Johnson and Fitzgerald, you’ve got DeSean Jackson, Miles Austin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, Marques Colston……
That doesn’t even consider some others like Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, Hakeem Nicks, Sidney Rice, or either of the Mike Williams’ (Bucs and Seahawks).
Despite being a big name, he isn’t going to make the Pro Bowl unless he really blows it up. He has a better chance of getting 90 catches than making the pro bowl.
Question is, if others bail on the Pro Bowl or miss because they’re in the SB, does he get the incentive, or does he have to be voted in as one of the top players or immediate alternates?
by 9thevolution on Aug 5, 2011 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions
yes I believe attending the pro bowl = reaching pro bowl incentives
I’ve asked people about it before because with the new pro bowl scheduling, many people don’t go
by whistlingmountain on Aug 5, 2011 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions
Question is, if others bail on the Pro Bowl or miss because they’re in the SB, does he get the incentive, or does he have to be voted in as one of the top players or immediate alternates?
This is a good question. He really is getting raped if they did not at least throw in the alternate thing.
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Side note, I do not think Dez Bryant is a top 4 NFC WR
I’d probably put it as
1. Calvin
2. Larry
3. Roddy
4. Desean
Even though Jackson is one dimensional, at this moment his 1 dimension is better than anyone else’s.
by whistlingmountain on Aug 5, 2011 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions
Depends... he wasn't last year.
But based on how he played the game, and being in Dallas, if he can stay healthy, I don’t see any reason why folks won’t see him as a Calvin Johsnon type.
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I think Calvin Johnson is a one-time freak of nature. Unfortunate for him what he’s had to deal with thus far.
Andre Johnson one half step behind him.
I don’t compare anyone to those two in the modern game. Players can get great stats and look incredible in systems, but those two players would be dominating anywhere they go.
If Owens had better hands I would have put him in that group too.
by whistlingmountain on Aug 5, 2011 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions
It may be premature to throw Bryant in to the Johnson and Johnson (no pun intended) discussion
but I would not count that out. You say “freak of nature”… and I believe that Bryant fits that mold if he cans stay healthy from here on out.
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What about Jennings?
Greg Jennings has to be on that list I would think, right?
I think that's a stupid incentive
especially since Pro-Bowls are often reputational. How many times have we seen once-great players ride their names into the Pro-Bowl?
I think it is good for Edwards... especially in the NFC.
A lot less competition for him than in the AFC.
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might be forgetting something here...
Alex is our QB. No way does Braylon get 100 catches with him under center. He might have a shot @ 1000 yds. receiving and double digit TD’s, but 100 catches?? nah, don’t think so. Cuz we still have VD and Crabs out there too…
I think the 90 receptions thing was put in there as more of a mental placemark.
He won’t get 90… But I think Probowl is doable.
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link
Do you have a link saying it’s “or” not “and” ?
by David Fucillo on Aug 5, 2011 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions
I just heard it on NFLN...
I think it was LaCanfora… maybe he tweeted it? Not sure… but I am 100% certain about it.
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LaCanfora
I think it’s both. He doesn’t say and/or but rather simply has a slash mark. I’m assuming and based on the fact that all other tweets out there say and. Here are the two tweets:
Tweet 1: How far did Braylon Edwards fall? Deal with 49ers is 1yr, $1M, with no guarantees. Only reaches $3.5M max with 90 catches/Pro Bowl. Yikes
Tweet 2: One more note on Braylon Edwards contract – if he has a “solid” starting type year, projects to make slightly under $2M in 2011
Who knows what “solid” means. Whatever the case, I’m pretty sure it’s 90 catches + a Pro Bowl appearance. Could be wrong, but that’s what everything leads me to believe. Of course, even if it’s only a Pro Bowl bid, $3.5M for a Pro Bowl wide receiver isn’t bad.
by David Fucillo on Aug 5, 2011 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions
I dunno... earlier this morning he said specifically "OR"
Now he is saying 90catch/Probowl… so who knows for sure?
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I think it would be shady by Niners F.O. to NOT pay him if he winds up with 80, goes to the Probowl
And they DON’T give him the full amount. It’s not like 3.5MM is all that much. Look at some other players with the same amount in comparison.
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contract
It sounds like the $3.5M is for hitting ALL incentives, but he could make more than $1M if he reaches some incentives. That’s how most incentive based contracts work. Thus the mention of potentially making slightly under $2M.
by David Fucillo on Aug 5, 2011 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions
I wouldn't say it's shady
Shady would be if he’s at 89 receptions and in the Pro Bowl and they bench him the final regular season game. THAT is shady.
by David Fucillo on Aug 5, 2011 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions
Haha.
I am not sure Edwards is all that worried about it as someone mentioned above anyway. He has seen a lot more money in his career than that.
It’s more or less a damage control year for the perception that he has built.
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i doubt coach Harbaugh would do that...
just so the FO doesn’t have to pay him. And what good would it serve us if Braylon knows management thumbed their nose at him
Well, it was more or less a joke being made by Fooch anyway.
It’s pretty obvious that no team would do that to a player.
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this is a great financial deal for the 49ers
But aren’t we asking for some sideline/locker room discontent if he’s not getting the looks/targets?
by the numbers:
assuming 300 completions (based on 16 games, 500 attempts [~30 per game], 60% completions…btw Tom Brady had 492 attempts last year)
assume:
Gore = 64 (gore averaged a career best 4.2 catches per game last year, but I rounded down to 4/ game for all RB’s)
VD = 70 (78 & 56 over last 2 years, and we’ve all ready about Roman’s TE love)
Crabs = 50 (48 & 55 over last 2 years…might miss time)
If Edwards gets exactly 90, that leaves 26 for Morgan (55 & 42 last 2 years), Walker (21 & 29), and our full backs.
This seems like a total long shot for him to get fully paid.
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so then...
$1m-$2m rental. That’s still dirt cheap for a veteran wideout. Besides, i think we’ll be able to afford him next season even if he does have a solid year
I officially hate Sportscenter!!
They announce last night that Edwards signed a 1 year deal with the 49ers…now on to baseball…if would’ve signed with an east coast team, there would’ve been a mandatory 10 minute segment!!
You know whats awesome?
Bo Scaife signed a one year, one million dollar contract. Braylon money
This has to be considered one of the best FA signings in the entire NFL this off-season. Plus, is he puts up those numbers SF will have no problem paying the additional 2.5MM. Also, if he does put up those numbers a franchise tag is a possibility to make sure his services are retained past 2011.
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by nocal81(Vincent) on Aug 5, 2011 11:00 AM PDT reply actions
I agree
Crabtree’s contract is about $17m guaranteed for 6 years. And he really hasn’t done anything yet. I understand this was before the rookie cap. But even some 33 year old is getting $3m.
Looks like Harbaugh is really close to Edward’s dad. So he may be able to give him good advice to stay out of trouble and get him resign with 49ers long term. He is only 28. So this is a great signing.
maybe u can help me
did he sign with us im a 9er fan or jets or neither.
West Coast Offense and 90 catches.
Jerry Rice:
80+ catches………12 Seasons
90+ catches………..6 Seasons
100+ catches………4 seasons
John Taylor never had more than 64 catches in a season as a solid #2.
Now I know Braylon isn’t Rice, and he doesn’t have Montana or Young throwing the ball, but in the WCO, WRs have more opportunities to get catches. I believe that while 90 catches would be hard, it is possible.
Another thought
Heyward-Bey made about 800K per catch last season with Oakland. Braylond would have to make just two catches in 2011 to be a better value
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by nocal81(Vincent) on Aug 5, 2011 11:06 AM PDT reply actions
I dont think Raider fans will ever live that pick down same with Jamarcus
Hearing from friends that are Raiders fans say Heyward is a hard worker but the guy has BAD hands. Cant catch a damn thing.
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