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Week 1 and the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes

Wow! What a tremendous first week of NFL football. I have a few random thoughts about what we saw, and then I will give my take on what teams are leading the way for being the absolute crappiest team in the league.

Random Thoughts

How many times did we hear that kickoffs would be boring this season? NOT!  Randall Cobb (GB), Percy Harvin (MIN) and our own Ted Ginn each ran back kickoffs for a touchdown. There were a total of eight players, including the three with touchdowns, who ran it back for more than 40 yards and six of those went for over 50!  

As the analysts and former players harped on the new kickoff rule, one of the things that I heard over and over again was how the new rule would make guys like Josh Cribbs less valuable to their team. They argued that the guys that were specialists in this area would have to learn how to contribute in other ways because they would be less effective than in years past.  I know that hindsight is always 20/20, but after seeing the action in week 1, I would argue that the specialists will actually become more valuable and that kickoffs will actually be more exciting than ever before. I love how much of a gamble it is now for the returner to take it out of the endzone from 5+ yards deep. You don't know if they will make it past the 15, but when they do it is really fun to watch.

I was, like most, very surprised at how badly the Steelers were used by the Ravens. I would be willing to bet that even many Ravens fans were surprised at the severe disparity between the two teams.

Cam Newton displayed every bit of athletic talent that he is capable of this week against the Cardinals. Too bad his record-setting performance didn't translate to a win, but he blew the doors off the hinges in his debut. I expect to see him have some extreme ups and downs this year. Carolina fans should be very optimistic.

St. Louis Rams fans must be holding their collective breath right now as they await more information on Sam Bradford's injury to his hand/finger. The Rams might be going from favorites to win the West to struggling to avoid becoming one of the teams on the bottom of the heap if this injury is anything long term.

Ryan Fitzpatrick...4 TD's...I guess that the front office wasn't lying when they said that they liked him...

There are a few big time players that won't be playing again this season due to injuries: Eric Berry (KC), John Beason (CAR), Nate Kaeding (SD). 

The Sweepstakes

Ironically, one of the worst teams yesterday is a team with one of the all-time great qb's in league history in Payton Manning. When the lockout lifted and the year officially began, nobody thought that the Colts would be in the running to draft next year's stud quarterback, Andrew Luck. But we all know now that Manning is probably out for the year. A lot has also been said even before yesterday about the fact that Kerry Collins is a slow starter, but...seriously? He's 39 years old, and he barely completed 50% of his passes yesterday and looked completely inept at times. Teams aren't going to be shy in the future about sending the house against this porous offensive line, and it won't be long until the Colts are forced to hand over the duties to Curtis Painter after they peel Collins off the turf for the umpteenth time. In my opinion, the Colts are leading the Luck Sweepstakes.

Not to far behind them, if yesterday was any indication, would be the Seattle Seahawks. I didn't think that they would look as bad as they did, but their offensive line is simply atrocious. Tavaris Jackson may not be a very good quarterback, but if the line protects he can do some things very well. Even with Gallery coming back in I can't see them doing very well.  The only fullback on their roster was injured, as well. The only way that teams with sub-par qb's win games is on the back of a solid running game, and they were completely stymied against the 49ers. Their defense might win them a few games this season, though, with an impressive group manning the trenches and Earl Thomas looking beastly both in the run game and in the air.

Even though they won yesterday, I would still have to place the Cincinnati Bengals next in line to be the worst at the end of the year. They have a favorable schedule this year, being that they play against the NFC West and the AFC South, but I don't think that they have the talent this season to win many games. Maybe Taylor Mays will go Highlander on Ed Reed and consume his powers, thus turning their defense into a turnover machine, but I just don't see that happening.

The Cleveland Browns and the Tennessee Titans are the last two teams on my list. Both of these teams have drafted young quarterbacks in Colt McCoy and Jake Locker in the last two drafts who they are high on, but if they tank it will be interesting to see if the teams roll the dice to try and land the next great franchise quarterback.

Of course, it is just week one and things can change so fast in the NFL. All I know is this: Thank God Football is Back!

Poll
Which team will pick #1 in next year's NFL draft?
Colts
73 votes
Seahawks
29 votes
Bengals
19 votes
Browns
9 votes
Titans
8 votes
Other (please explain)
23 votes

161 votes | Poll has closed

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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We can’t forget about Miami… even though they haven’t played I am pretty confident that their #1 need will be QB and being part of the AFC East that will help them land that #1 spot.

I wouldn’t mind the 9ers being part of the discussion but it would probably take trading away 2012 and 2013 #1s to land the overall #1 spot… a price I would pay for a TRUE franchise QB. There are lots of quality Qbs coming out next year… Luck, Barkley, Moore, Jones and Foles. So there are other options. .Kaep is not franchise material we can trade him to Raiders to get back in 1st round

Joe and Steve were under the same system for years... don't expect Kaepernick to be super so soon.

by bayboy on Sep 12, 2011 4:03 PM PDT reply actions  

Lol
Kaep is not franchise material we can trade him to Raiders to get back in 1st round

Funny, but I disagree about Kaep. Give the guy a couple of years to learn the system and understand the intellectual aspect of the game and I think he’ll be one of the most dangerous qb’s in the league.

Come on, Alex, please be good this year...

by Jesse Reed on Sep 12, 2011 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

Btw

it’s the Chad Henne show on their first drive against New England tonight.

Come on, Alex, please be good this year...

by Jesse Reed on Sep 12, 2011 4:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

Kaep is not franchise material we can trade him to Raiders to get back in 1st round

Wow. The guy hasn’t thrown a regular-season pass yet and already people want to ship him out.

If he wasn’t worth a first-round pick in the year he was drafted, why would he net one a year later?

by Ronaldinho on Sep 12, 2011 5:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

it's a joke about the Raiders

I’d certainly take Luck over Kaep, but I like Kaep and certainly don’t mind him as the long-term guy. He just won’t be ready for 3+ years. I expect the 49ers to go after a vet next year if they feel like the rest of the team is in a place where they can be a serious playoff team.

by whistlingmountain on Sep 12, 2011 6:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

I really hope it’s less than 3+ years

As a geologist, I talk to rocks. And they talk back, and they are telling me, "This year the San Fransisco 49ers are going to be some Gneiss Schist!"

by Conskies on Sep 12, 2011 11:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

Raider would make the trade… lol, but I really do think Luck is a better QB than Kaep right now

Joe and Steve were under the same system for years... don't expect Kaepernick to be super so soon.

by bayboy on Sep 12, 2011 7:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

completely agree

Come on, Alex, please be good this year...

by Jesse Reed on Sep 12, 2011 8:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

Colts

seriously thought they should have picked up Garrard. If they don’t, then drafting first overall might be in the cards (though I still doubt it).

by reedkrase on Sep 12, 2011 4:57 PM PDT reply actions  

I'd like to see how they bounce back

teams have looked that bad in the first week and been fine in the past.

the big problem for me is that Caldwell is a really hands off coach, things could get out of hand pretty quickly, blow up in the locker room.

by whistlingmountain on Sep 12, 2011 6:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

If i think of the worst teams in each division it would be

Redskins
Seahawks
Panthers
Vikings
Dolphins
Broncos
Colts
Bengals/Browns

Out of those 8 i think the worst is the Broncos. I would have to imagine they would take Luck even with Orton as a starter and 2 first round picks behind him.

I do think though no matter where the 49ers finish this season whether we have a top 10 pick or the last pick in the first round we are going to be one of the front runners to get Luck and get alot of talk on ESPN the weeks leading up to the draft about it.

by Collin B on Sep 12, 2011 6:05 PM PDT reply actions  

You haven't seen the Broncos play yet

I don’t think they’ll be that bad, solid offensive structure, defensive head coach, new defensive stud. Playing in a division with the Raiders and Chiefs.

Other than the Colts dumping, I think the Vikings have a good shot, if McNabb sucks for 2 or 3 games they bring in Ponder and basically throw the season, go 0-6 in the division.

by whistlingmountain on Sep 12, 2011 6:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

Odd to say, but pretty much all of the bad teams in the league exceeded my expectations

except the 49ers and Seahawks, who both played at about the level I expected

the shockingly bad surprise was Kansas City, but they’re not bad enough to win less than 5 games.

For the Colts I’d like to see how they bounce back, the AFC South isn’t particularly strong. It might be a weird year, I haven’t looked, but I think the last 5+ 1st pick teams have won 3 or less games. Might be a year where there are 5 or 6 teams at 4 or 5 wins, which would make the last couple of weeks really tenuous, might encourage some teams to ride a bad coach to the ground rather than fire and get that emotional bump and meaningless victories.

I’d put the Colts as the favorite, Minnesota and Seattle as #2/#3.

by whistlingmountain on Sep 12, 2011 6:47 PM PDT reply actions  

Other. The Panthers

Cam had a great game against a horrible team. And they lost their only player worth a turd on defense.

Gimme 1 round!

by ItBurnzWhenIP on Sep 12, 2011 8:49 PM PDT reply actions  

I voted Colts

But the Chiefs looked horrible yesterday. The Seahawks will steal some wins at home in a bad division.

The Colts still have talent, but wow. I also think Caldwell might be the most useless coach inn the NFL.

by hammystyle on Sep 12, 2011 10:18 PM PDT reply actions  

It's still gonna be the Bengals

Don’t let the fool deceive you. It also could be the Panthers, although I doubt they will need to pick Luck to be their QB. They could be set at the position…

And I am still standing strong in that I don’t think Luck will even be the first QB.

Check out my site!!
The Hometown Fan

by Drew Kerr on Sep 12, 2011 11:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

top pick

If either Luck or Jones were to be viewed as a clear top pick next April (for arguments sake), I’d assume Panthers try to trade. Gotta think they could get great picks if the top pick is viewed as a franchise QB. As for Bengals, guess it depends on what Dalton does this year.

by David Fucillo on Sep 12, 2011 11:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

Agreed.

There are a lot of contingencies in place. Luck vs. Jones… the team that selects first will also determine the selection. I don’t think it will be so clear-cut… at least as what most people are claiming at this point by seasons end. a lot will depend on what type of offense is picking first too.

Check out my site!!
The Hometown Fan

by Drew Kerr on Sep 13, 2011 2:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

So do you see Luck

going the way of Matt Leinart?

Come on, Alex, please be good this year...

by Jesse Reed on Sep 14, 2011 9:12 AM PDT up reply actions  

This year's Colts

This year’s Colts bear a striking resemblance to the 1994-1995 San Antonio Spurs. David Robinson went from ppg champ and league mvp to injured for almost that entire year, and they luck (pun intended) into the worst record and first overall pick for the 95-96 season. And there you have Tim Duncan.

One down year equals two decades of otherwise uninterrupted dominance.

"Aaaaaaaal Apalachicola"

by bonbrillio on Sep 13, 2011 9:26 AM PDT reply actions  

Luck is not a shoe in at #1, he may not be the best QB coming out.

Blogging is nothing more than graffiti with punctuation...

by rlott#42 on Sep 13, 2011 7:06 PM PDT reply actions  

He won't be.

I see mounds of upside in Griffin from Baylor. He could have the highest ceiling out of any QB. But Landry Jones may be better than Luck as well.

Check out my site!!
The Hometown Fan

by Drew Kerr on Sep 14, 2011 9:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

Luck is overrated in my opinion.

People seem to just toss around the “best QB prospect since Peyton Manning,” just because everyone else is saying it. His deep and intermediate balls float in the air forever and I’m still not sold on his deep and intermediate accuracy either. I’d say Bradford is/was the best QB prospect since Manning.

Affectionately,
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar,
NBA’s All-Time Leading Scorer

by afrikabamboodle on Sep 13, 2011 7:55 PM PDT reply actions  

well, I think you're both very very wrong, but

The same things were said about Manning and created… Manning vs Leaf, the same number of detractors on Luck existed for Manning, if you guys were older, you’d have probably been in that group.

Heck even recently, Suh vs McCoy ( I still can’t believe this, up to the draft people saying McCoy would be better in one system or the other.. insane )

by whistlingmountain on Sep 14, 2011 5:25 AM PDT up reply actions  

Only time will tell

I have the same opinion as you, but we could both be wrong.

Come on, Alex, please be good this year...

by Jesse Reed on Sep 14, 2011 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

Bradford had just sat out an entire season with a twice-injured shoulder.

Success in the pros doesn’t retroactively make you a better prospect.

We don't need 8 in the box. We have 52 in the box.

by these3words on Sep 14, 2011 6:37 AM PDT up reply actions  

Bradford's "success" in the NFL is incredible at this point

and I think he’d been ok and has good potential, but people are treating his rookie season like he was great. He was ok for the first half and terrible TERRIBLE down the stretch.

Freeman was the guy who was great last year, and Cassel has flashed greatness, but can’t stay healthy.

by whistlingmountain on Sep 14, 2011 8:07 AM PDT up reply actions  

Bradford was far and away the #1 pick as a Jr

Much further ahead of the pack than Luck is. He was so much better he still got taken #1 after missing a season with a badly injured shoulder.

Gimme 1 round!

by ItBurnzWhenIP on Sep 14, 2011 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's safe to say, then

that you prefer Bradford over Luck, eh? You may be correct in your analysis. Only time will tell.

Come on, Alex, please be good this year...

by Jesse Reed on Sep 14, 2011 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

"far and away" the #1 pick?

Over Stafford? It wasn’t really that clear-cut. And regardless of where his stock was as a Junior, the fact remains that he was considered an injury risk when he was actually drafted.

We don't need 8 in the box. We have 52 in the box.

by these3words on Sep 15, 2011 7:20 AM PDT up reply actions  

Voted other.

I just feel like the Broncos are on the verge of totally imploding.

We don't need 8 in the box. We have 52 in the box.

by these3words on Sep 14, 2011 6:38 AM PDT reply actions  

There's also this entire thing of, while it's impossible to "throw" a season

coaches and GMs can use it as a trial season, put in rookies, experiment with plays, get rid of depth for youth..

If Denver reaches an 0-4 or 0-5 point, then we might see it, Tebow.. then it’s, can the Tebow youth effect succeed enough to win more than 3/4 games?

The other big one is Kansas City, Coach vs GM situation, haley could get fired if they start 0-4 and then just watch the team completely blow up.

It’s starting to look like there aren’t cellar teams this year ( other than potentially the Colts ) in the NFL, so tenuous circumstances and injuries ( Manning, Beason, Berry.. ) will really come into play.

by whistlingmountain on Sep 14, 2011 8:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

Actually

I think Tebow could be a major reason for the implosion. You’ve got a fanbase that’s already chanting for him to start, and a front office that doesn’t support him at all. I can only assume the players are divided on the issue. Just seems like a fanbase-driven QB controversy could tear the team apart.

We don't need 8 in the box. We have 52 in the box.

by these3words on Sep 14, 2011 8:32 AM PDT up reply actions  

I haven't seen anything that would suggest the players are divided.

But I agree that would be the cause of an implosion.

That might end up the scenario if Orton gets hurt and it’s Brady out there and no one has any faith in him. I don’t see anyone on that team wanting Tebow over Orton though, he just had a great season.

by whistlingmountain on Sep 14, 2011 8:38 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, the more I think about it

I’m starting to doubt too many players would buy into the whole Tebow thing like the fans do. Maybe some of them do, but you’ve got to figure most of the players would probably recognize Orton as the better QB.

We don't need 8 in the box. We have 52 in the box.

by these3words on Sep 14, 2011 9:56 AM PDT up reply actions  

Fans hate critical QB fumbles

Orton last week

Romo last week

Smith last year against the Eagles

Sometimes it's over till it isn't.

by riderless on Sep 14, 2011 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions  

true, but we also
hate critical qb fumbles

they suck no matter if the timing is critical or not.

The one Orton had on MNF was ridiculously atrocious, however. That one probably cost them the game. It turned what was probably a sure touchdown pass into a touchdown the other way. Don Banks had this to say about watching Orton a couple of days ago

When I’m watching Kyle Orton play quarterback, I can’t help but think I’m watching the league’s modern-day Steve DeBerg, who was once aptly described by his head coach, Bill Walsh, as "just good enough to get you beat.’’

Come on, Alex, please be good this year...

by Jesse Reed on Sep 14, 2011 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

Interesting thoughts...

The injuries will surely be a major storyline throughout the year. Peyton Manning was frustrated all off-season because he wasn’t able to rehab at the team facilities. The lockout will surely be a topic that comes back into conversation as we go forward.

Come on, Alex, please be good this year...

by Jesse Reed on Sep 14, 2011 9:20 AM PDT up reply actions  

Kaepernick’s not the answer. Luck will more than likely be out of the Niners reach, but Jones should be a possiblity. If not jones then Foles.

by bmcrae83@yahoo.com on Sep 17, 2011 12:14 PM PDT reply actions  

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