Week 4 NFL Power Rankings & Playoff Odds

Tuesday is generally the players' day off around the NFL (except for the 49ers going with a Monday off-day), but it's relatively quiet as teams are busy game-planning for the upcoming week and preparing for Wednesday, Thursday, Friday practices. Given the calm before the midweek storm, all the power rankings come out today. Throw in Football Outsiders Playoff Odds and it creates for some interesting and random discussion.

As would be expected coming off Sunday's fairly ugly victory, the 49ers have not moved a whole lot in many power rankings. The SB Nation NFL power rankings kept them in the No. 20 position. ESPN bumped them from No. 23 to No. 20. CBS Sports bumped them from No. 23 to No. 21. I actually jumped on the power rankings bandwagon over at SB Nation Bay Area and bumped them from No. 19 to No. 18.

Power rankings only reflect media opinion, but this coming week against the Eagles, the 49ers have a chance to change the perception to some degree. If Michael Vick doesn't play the excuses are already built in for no greater respect, but a win over the Vick-led Eagles would certainly change things to some degree. Of course, maybe we should just prefer the world continue looking past the 49ers. Getting hyped up hasn't helped in the past.

On a day of media power rankings, Football Outsiders released their weekly playoff odds and current DVOA ratings following week three. It's way too early to be seriously considering playoff odds, but that doesn't mean we can't at least enjoy them a little bit for now. The 49ers playoff odds reflect FO running the season 10,000 times. Wins and losses are assigned using a combination of DAVE ratings for each team and home field advantage in every single game to come up with odds following each week.

As it currently stands, the 49ers have the third highest odds to make the playoffs, behind only the Packers and Lions. That high percentage reflects their play in the NFC West, and I'd imagine the Cardinals loss to Seattle in particular. At this point, any non-NFC West win will boost the playoff chances of an NFC West team. I'd suspect the odds will be all over the place over the next few weeks as they face their toughest stretch of the season.

Football Outsiders also released their latest DVOA ratings. The 49ers dropped from No. 11 to No. 12 in VOA but remained No. 15 in DAVE (the combination of preseason projections and current VOA). The 49ers remain number on in special teams, but climbed from No. 6 to No. 4 in defense following a strong effort against the Bengals.

NFC West

Team Rec DAVE Mean Ws #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
SF 2-1 2.8% 8.8 4.6% 10.8% 18.3% 39.5% 0.3% 1.2% 73.3% 15.5% 1.5% 74.7% 19.5%
ARI 1-2 -11.3% 6.7 0.2% 1.4% 3.4% 11.8% 0.6% 2.4% 16.8% 1.6% 3.0% 19.7% -15.8%
SEA 1-2 -27.3% 5.8 0.0% 0.3% 1.2% 5.9% 0.3% 1.0% 7.5% 0.4% 1.3% 8.7% 2.5%
STL 0-3 -29.9% 4.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 2.4% 0.0% 0.2% 2.5% 0.0% 0.2% 2.7% -6.8%

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